Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources signed a guarantee facility with Washington H. Soul ((SOL)) to replace the $50m facility with ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) maturing in July.

As per the commentary, the new deal is for $60m and effectively releases $10m, with the company also extending and deferring payments on the existing $50m term facility with WHSP by 12 months.

Bell Potter notes the refinancing will increase debt services costs, though this will be partially offset by cash release and delayed repayment on existing debt. The key benefit is the opportunity it provides to lift production and reduce debt faster.

FY25 EPS forecast cut by -7% and FY25 by -11%, mainly on additional debt service costs. Buy. Target unchanged at 35c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.175
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 54.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

A survey by Eilers & Krejcik Gaming on the North American land-based slot machine install base over the March quarter suggests to UBS upside to Aristocrat Leisure's gaming operations' net installs versus forecasts by the broker and consensus.

Aristocrat reports on May 14.

The $74.50 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $74.50 Current Price is $68.00 Difference: $6.5
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.93, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

After a full analysis of ANZ Bank's 1H25 result, Citi cut the earnings estimates by -3-4% across the forecast period after factoring in higher costs and higher bad and doubtful debts in the outer years.

Minimal changes to revenue forecasts.

The broker reckons the focus now shifts to the new CEO starting Monday, mainly cost-management plans ahead of business integration and technology upgrades.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $27.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: minus $1.9 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.42, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes ANZ Bank reported an inline result at the "headline" level. Underlying profit was softer than anticipated and revenue came in below the broker's forecast by -2% on lower margins and volume.

Expenses for the bank were a beat due to timing on investment spending, with no change to 2H25 guidance on investment at around 7% growth. The analyst explains the new CEO, who starts next week, will have major work to integrate Suncorp Bank with the ANZ Plus rollout.

The CET1 ratio was lower on the previous half by -20bps and Macquarie believes the new CEO will review the bank's capital strategy. The broker forecasts a cut in dividend in 2H25.

Target price slips to $27.50 from $28. Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by around -3% to -4% for FY25–FY27.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: minus $1.9 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.42, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights ANZ Bank announced a "softer" than expected 1H25 earnings report.

Revenue missed consensus forecasts and, excluding the impact of Suncorp Bank, fell -1% on the previous half and down -2% on a year earlier, the analyst details.

Cost management was viewed as positive but has resulted in a reduction in the bank's growth profile. Morgan Stanley remains cautious on the outlook for retail banking, corporate finance, and markets in A&NZ.

Management has decided to take on a more conservative capital setting, including issuing new shares for the DRP, which offers increased flexibility for balancing the remaining share buybacks.

Unchanged Equal-weight rating. Target price slips to $27.50 from $29.30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: minus $1.9 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.42, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Morgans lowers its target price for ANZ Bank to $24.51 from $26.66, citing approaching capital tightness and lower per-share metrics. The Hold rating is maintained.

While 1H25 headline earnings beat expectations, underlying growth excluding the Suncorp Bank acquisition was flat, leading to material downgrades to the broker's forecasts for cash earnings and EPS.

Positively, asset quality remains robust, with net write-offs falling and provisioning is adequate for a downside economic scenario, according to Morgans.

The bank's CET1 ratio was 12% pro forma at end-1H25 but is under pressure due to dividend payments, DRP issuance, and a slower buyback pace, explains the analyst.

Revenue growth of 5% was below Morgans expectations, and worsening cost growth of -4% is expected to accelerate in 2H25. 

Target price is $24.51 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: minus $4.89 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.42, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes ANZ Bank's 1H25 net interest margin missed consensus expectations, with ongoing stiff competition for depositors and borrowers.

The broker highlights the interim DPS was the "smallest" of the Big Four banks, although it came in line with estimates.

Ord Minnett believes the big overhang for the bank is whether the new CEO can improve return on equity from the retail division, which has fallen to 11% from 33% over the last ten years.

The analyst lifts EPS estimates slightly by 1.6% for FY25 to account for provision releases, and EPS forecasts for FY26/FY27 slip by -0.4% and -5.1%, respectively.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating with a $27.50 target.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: minus $1.9 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.42, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses ANZ Bank's 1H25 result is broadly in line with the broker's forecast at the headline level, with cash profit (NPAT) of $3.56bn, EPS of 117c, and an interim dividend of 83c.

The broker notes performance across divisions was mixed: Retail earnings declined -13% half-on-half due to lower non-interest income and rising impairments; Commercial NPAT was -3.2%; and Institutional earnings rose 3.3% driven by volume growth.

While the result met consensus forecasts, weaker CET1 capital and softer revenue offset positive cost and bad debt outcomes, explain the analysts.

UBS cuts its cash earnings forecasts by -2.3% in FY25, -0.6% in FY26, and -0.4% in FY27, citing lower net interest margins and softer non-interest income.

The broker's operating costs estimates were slightly improved, but credit loss forecasts rose modestly for outer years.

UBS lowers its price target to $30 from $31 and retains a Neutral rating. 

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: $0.6
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.42, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CU6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Clarity Pharmaceuticals's 3Q25 cash flow report confirmed its strong position, with $106m cash (including $11m R&D refund), which will last through to 2H2026.

The broker expects clinical studies for both Clarify and Amplify to be fully recruited by end-2025 and sees commercial negotiations for Cu SAR bis PSMA as likely in the absence of M&A. 

The broker sees no reason for the company to raise further capital.

No change to forecasts. Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $5.20.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $2.77
If CU6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EIQ as Speculative Buy (1) -

EchoIQ has raised $17.3m in an equity placement to institutions, issuing 57.2m new shares at 30c per share, some -13% below the previous close.

Ord Minnett emphasises this raises cash on the balance sheet to $21.3m, which offers sufficient liquidity to grow the EchoSolv installed base with 60-plus sites targeted in 4Q25 to 1Q26.

The analyst anticipates FDA approval and market launch of EchoSolv HF, and sufficient cash for reimbursement activities.

Target lifts to 40c from 38c. No change to Speculative Buy rating. The broker tweaks earnings forecasts for the changes.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.08
If EIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Ahead of 1H25 results, Bell Potter has reviewed drivers for Elders after taking into account dry conditions in some states and wet weather in Queensland in March. The broker's soil moisture analysis showed FY25 conditions are similar to FY24.

For margin recovery, stable crop protection prices are seen as a positive. The broker notes activity levels were solid in 2Q with cattle turnoff up 13% y/y and sheep turnoff 6% higher. Livestock values were also higher.

The broker updated forecasts to match the FY25 demand profile to FY24, and mark-to-market movements. Net profit estimate for FY25 cut by -4% but lifted by 1% for FY26.

Buy. Target cut to $9.10 from $9.40. The broker highlights $1.60 of the target price reflects a successful acquisition of Delta business.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $6.43 Difference: $2.67
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 45.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights Evolution Mining has outperformed Northern Star Resources ((NST)) by over 90% in the last 12 months.

The analyst attributes this to the de-gearing of the gold miner's balance sheet, alongside a transparent outlook for key metrics like mine life, capex, and production.

Citi suggests FY25 was the year to generate cash flow and profits rather than M&A, and Northern Star's recent earnings downgrades for FY25 and FY26 have not boosted investor sentiment.

The analyst expects the underperformance of Northern Star to reverse during 4Q once FY26 downgrades are in place.

Evolution Mining's target price is raised to $8.50, with the broker explaining the stock was "prematurely" downgraded to Neutral after 1Q 2025.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.64 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GOZ as Buy (1) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia upgraded FY25 FFO guidance, citing solid portfolio metrics, cost management and strategic growth as key reasons. The revised guidance is for 23c vs 22.3-23.1c before and compares with a consensus of 22.8c.

Citi notes occupancy was strong in 3Q25 at 94% and defensive underlying portfolio WALE of 5.8 years.

Undrawn debt facilities were trimmed to $242m following cancellation of $300m facilities. Other highlights included -$40m acquisition of an industrial asset in Queensland.

The broker notes the REIT is trading at an undemanding valuation of -22% discount to NTA, based on 6.6% cap rates, 10.5x FY26 PE and 7.7% dividend yield.

Buy. Target price $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.18
If GOZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GYG as Neutral (3) -

UBS maintains a Neutral rating on Guzman y Gomez and lowers its 12-month price target to $34 from $35.

While FY25 guidance has been re-affirmed, UBS reduces FY26 earnings forecasts, citing slightly fewer store openings in Australia and a shift toward franchising over corporate ownership, which dampens EBITDA but improves return on investment.

In the US, UBS expects peak EBITDA losses in FY26 as the brand accelerates expansion amid still-low awareness and broadly flat same-store sales.

Group FY26 EBITDA estimate has been lowered by -4.8%, and EPS by -11.9%. Despite strong same-store sales growth and long-term potential, UBS views the stock's valuation --trading on 36x FY26 EV/EBITDA-- as full.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $32.99 Difference: $1.01
If GYG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.00, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HCW as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Healthscope, which represents 60% of HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT's rent, may enter administration, which raises the prospect of rent cuts and/or vacancies for the REIT.

The analyst explains the current share price implies an ongoing reduction in rent for Healthscope of -30%, which would equal a lowering of the funds from operations to 6.1c compared to the consensus estimate of 8.4c per share.

Morgan Stanley lowers the funds from operations forecast to 6.6c from 8.4c as the REIT has withdrawn guidance.

Underweight rating. Target price falls to 89c from $1.04. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $0.89 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.025
If HCW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Helloworld Travel has downgraded earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $52m–$56m from $56m–$62m, including interest income, which Ord Minnett excludes from its earnings forecasts.

The company explained a mix of structural and cyclical factors impacting, and a change in customer behaviour to short-haul destinations like Asia rather than the US and Europe.

This translates to a reduction in travel spend per trip, while younger travellers are transitioning away from traditional travel agents.

Positively, booking volumes for FY26 have picked up. The company retains net cash around $125m.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $1.93 from $2.28.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.475
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 42.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPG as Buy (1) -

Following a transfer of coverage of IPD Group to analyst Joseph House and a cautious view on the near-term outlook, Bell Potter cut FY25 revenue forecast by -2% and FY26 by -3%.

The broker notes approval values in the company's two key markets --commercial and industrial-- have declined y/y by -22% and -13%, and another near-term headwind is in vehicle charging infrastructure commissioning.

This is partially offset by increased demand for products and services related to data centres. The longer-term outlook, however, is still considered positive.

Buy. Target cut $4.60 from $5.50.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.64
If IPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder's 1Q25 revenue of US$774m missed Bell Potter's forecast by -4%, but a strong margin ensured adjusted EBITDA was in line. 

The revenue miss was attributed to game economy issues in SciPlay and lower-than-expected fee per day in gaming. 

The company re-iterated the FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance of US$1.4 bn, stating it has tariff mitigation strategies in place, including production onshoring, trade agreements and sourcing relocation.

The broker downgraded revenue forecasts but lifted EPS forecasts for FY25-27, mainly on higher buybacks/margins.

Buy. Target cut to $194 from $197.

Target price is $194.00 Current Price is $133.15 Difference: $60.85
If LNW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $197.20, suggesting upside of 56.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder's 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA fell short of Citi's forecast by -1.5% but the margin was well ahead due to increasing gaming in the revenue mix and cost management.

The broker notes management's comment tariffs won't impact the cost of goods sold for a few quarters because of advance inventory purchases. 

In any case, the analyst sees positive tariff news as an upside and looks forward to the May 20 investor day briefing for longer-term plans for the business.

The broker cut adjusted EBITDA forecast by -1% across FY25-27 after lowering revenue forecasts in gaming and SciPlay. EPS forecasts for FY25 lifted by 5.3% and by 6.4% for FY26.

Buy. Target cut to $193 from $200.

Target price is $193.00 Current Price is $133.15 Difference: $59.85
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $197.20, suggesting upside of 56.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Light & Wonder announced growth in 1Q25 earnings (adj EBITDA) of 11% on a year earlier, which was below consensus expectations by -1% at US$314m, with free cash flow up 19%, Macquarie observes.

The broker highlighted a miss on land-based gaming by -4%, with the company reversing discounting on products in the previous quarter. Fee per day in North America came in below Macquarie's estimate by -2% due to cold weather, notably in Northeastern US markets.

A primary listing in Australia is currently on hold, and the analyst believes the impact of tariffs remains uncertain. Management has diversified the supply chain, rerouting imports via Mexico.

The broker's EPS estimates are tweaked by 1% in FY25 and down -3% in FY26. Management is expected to discuss growth strategies and reiterate FY25 guidance at the May 20 investor day in New York.

No change to Outperform rating. Target price slips to $187 from $198.

Target price is $187.00 Current Price is $133.15 Difference: $53.85
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $197.20, suggesting upside of 56.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNW as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses Light & Wonder’s March quarter result was slightly disappointing, with adjusted earnings (AEBITDA) up by 11% year-on-year and in line with consensus, but adjusted profit (NPATA) missing by -8%.

Gaming and iGaming earnings were weaker-than-expected by the broker, while SciPlay outperformed. North American gaming operations saw lower-than-expected unit installations and average daily revenue per unit declined -1% despite a stronger premium mix.

Management reiterated its FY25 earnings target of US$1.4bn, implying to the broker a required 13% growth across the remaining quarters versus 11% in Q1.

UBS lowers its price target to $192 from $196 and retains a Buy rating. 

Target price is $192.00 Current Price is $133.15 Difference: $58.85
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $197.20, suggesting upside of 56.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

It is Citi's initial assessment that Macquarie Group's reported FY25 profit of $3,715m is in-line with Citi and consensus expectations of $3.7bn.

By segment, better results were achieved by MAM (5-10% better) and BFS (3% better), mitigating a weaker result vs expectations in CGM (-5% miss).

MAM beat expectations on better performance fees (range of funds, incl. MAIF 2) as well as better investment income (rotorcraft sale).

This was offset by a softer CGM result, with inventory management & trading down -24% YoY on reduced oil trading and contract recognition impacts, the analysts note.

With regards to new guidance provided, the key downside risks to consensus earnings are seen in commodities income (guide to 'slightly up' vs consensus at 14% growth) and MAM other operating income (guide to 'broadly in line' vs consensus at 19% growth).

Citi analysts believe these are low single-digit revenue downgrades in themselves, with other line items seemingly in-line with forecasts. Sell. Target $177.

Target price is $177.00 Current Price is $195.89 Difference: minus $18.89 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $206.31, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Following initial assessment of today's market update, UBS comments the FY25 result was slightly ahead of consensus on net profit after tax, up 5.5% to $3.7bn, driven by better-than-expected outcomes in Asset Management (MAM) and Banking & Financial Services.

However, Macquarie Group's pre-tax profit fell -1.1% short of consensus, as weaker performances in Commodities & Global Markets and Capital markets offset the upside.

A surprise gain from the sale of Rotocraft lifted Q4 earnings, and the dividend rose modestly to $6.50.

UBS is projecting 14% earnings growth in FY26, supported by private credit realisations, but also expects increased expenditure to weigh on capital returns.

EPS forecasts have been lifted to $10.65 for FY26 from $9.12 in FY25. Neutral. Target $235.

Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $195.89 Difference: $39.11
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $206.31, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NEU as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Acadia Pharmaceuticals' (the commercial partner for Neuren Pharmaceuticals' Daybue product) 1Q25 sales were down -13% q/q and below consensus, but this was already flagged.

The company reiterated FY25 Daybue sales growth of 9-16%, implying royalty income to Neuren of $62-72m, in line with the broker's forecast of $64m.

The broker expects approval for Daybue from the European Medicines Agency in 1Q26, but believes the sales outlook isn't too bright due to cheaper pricing.

Marginal changes to forecasts, with the broker noting the current valuation assigns very little value to NNZ-2591.

Buy. Target unchanged at $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $12.80 Difference: $7.2
If NEU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi highlights Evolution Mining has outperformed Northern Star Resources ((NST)) by over 90% in the last 12 months.

The analyst attributes this to the degearing of the gold miner's balance sheet alongside a transparent outlook for key metrics like mine life, capex, and production.

Citi suggests FY25 was the year to generate cash flow and profits rather than M&A, and Northern Star's recent earnings downgrades for FY25 and FY26 have not boosted investor sentiment.

The analyst expects the underperformance of Northern Star to reverse during 4Q once FY26 downgrades are in place.

Citi upgrades Northern Star Resources to Buy from Neutral with a higher target price of $22 with FY26 consensus gold price estimates at $4,760/oz against the spot price of $5,255/oz.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.89 Difference: $2.11
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWS as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, News Corp's 3Q25 result has exceeded expectations, with EBITDA 8% ahead of consensus and free cash flow up 34% on consensus at US$418m, UBS comments.

As per the commentary, today's 'beat' was driven by strong margin performance at Dow Jones and Digital Real Estate, with EBITDA margins rising 130bps and 370bps year-on-year, respectively.

EBITDA also grew in Book Publishing (+3%) and News Media (+27%). UBS highlights solid cash-backed earnings and sees potential for further upside given margin strength and improving capital returns. 

Buy. Target $68.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $50.68 Difference: $17.32
If NWS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.50, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Citi assessed overall Orica's 1H25 result as strong but downgraded FY25 revenue forecast by -2.3% after the company missed expectations by -2-4%. The broker cited lower contribution from Latin America as the key reason.

The EBITDA forecast for FY25 was upgraded by 2.3% as the analyst expects a stronger EBIT margin from increased focus on premium products and services.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted 3.3% and by 1.4% for FY26. Buy. Target rises to $20.65 from $18.90.

Target price is $20.65 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $2.64
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.81, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes Orica's strategy to focus on "value-add" and premium product is coming to fruition in the 1H25 results. Underlying net profit after tax rose 6% to $250m, a beat against the broker's and consensus estimate by 9.6%.

Earnings before interest and tax per tonne advanced by 33% to $232/t, above the previous high of circa $220/t in 1H14, the analyst explains.

Asia Pacific was a standout, rising 42% to $317/t. Unlike other companies navigating tariffs, Orica has no tariff "caveats" for full-year earnings growth guidance, with the broker noting management has not experienced any signs of slowing growth from a weaker macro backdrop.

Macquarie lifts EPS estimates by 2% and 1% for FY25/FY26. No change to Outperform rating. Target price is raised to $21.48 from $20.91.

Target price is $21.48 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $3.47
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.81, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating on Orica post a "solid" 1H25 earnings report, which beat consensus by 5% for earnings before interest and tax and was above by 9% on EPS.

The broker views blasting solutions as the star, with earnings per tonne up 32%, reflecting management achieving the desired strategic outcome on better mix and margins.

These results were emphasised as "clean" by the analyst, with no negative surprises.

The analyst has upgraded EPS forecasts by 11% in FY25 and 8% in FY26, which results in a compound three-year average growth rate of 11% per annum.

Target price set at $23 from $22.50. Industry view: In-line

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $4.99
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.81, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Add (1) -

Morgans raises the target price for Orica to $21.70 from $20.10 and retains an Add rating following a strong 1H25 result that materially beat expectations.

Underlying earnings (EBIT) rose 35% and NPAT by 40% year-on-year, with broad-based strength across divisions, observes the broker.

Ther Australia Pacific and Asia (APA) vivision and Digital Solutions, were particularly strong, according to the analysts, supported by product mix improvements and recent acquisitions.

Margins expanded meaningfully, with the group earnings (EBIT) margin rising to 12% from 9.7%, despite a -2.7% fall in AN volumes, points out Morgans.

Cash flow was solid, in the broker's view, gearing remains conservative, and a $400m on-market share buyback is set to resume.

Management reaffirmed full-year earnings growth expectations and noted positive momentum heading into FY26.

FY26 guidance implies to Morgans further earnings growth across all segments, including recovery in North America and expansion from Specialty Mining Chemicals and Digital Solutions.

Target price is $21.70 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $3.69
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.81, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

UBS maintains a Buy rating on Orica and keeps the price target unchanged at $22. The 1H25 result is labelled as "strong", with EPS up 33%, 10% ahead of consensus.

Identified drivers include a better-than-expected APAC result, re-pricing in ammonium nitrate, rising demand for blasting technology, and a one-off carbon credit sale.

The company reiterated guidance for FY25 EBIT growth of circa 20% and pointed to multiple drivers supporting ongoing growth into FY26, including Cyanco integration and increased NaCN output.

UBS forecasts FY25 EPS of 103c, rising to 112c in FY26 and 121c in FY27, with no changes to estimates.

The broker highlights a sustainable double-digit EPS growth outlook and notes further upside from a $400m buy-back supporting re-rating potential.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $3.99
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.81, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

In a first look at today's March quarter update by QBE Insurance, Citi assesses outcomes were largely as expected. It's felt management is set to meet original FY25 group combined operating ratio (COR) guidance of around 92.5%. 

Gross written premiums (GWP) rose 7% compared to a year earlier or 8% on a constant currency basis. CAT claims for the four months to April 2025 are running within 1H allowances, observe the analysts, despite losses from California wildfires.

Management predicts moderate growth in FY25 crop GWP with a more stable net insurance revenue (NIR) relative to FY24.

Buy. Target $23.30.

Target price is $23.30 Current Price is $21.83 Difference: $1.47
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.27, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Having returned from a conference call with management at REA Group post today's Q3 update, Citi analysts report they see potential for minor consensus earnings downgrades.

Also, the analysts would not be surprised if the stock trades down in the near term given CoStar's acquisition of competitor Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG)) is going ahead.

Citi itself does not expect a material impact on REA's position over the next 1-3 years. Marketing schedules are to initially expand if CoStar is successful in growing Domain's audience.

Buy. Target $275.

Target price is $275.00 Current Price is $250.08 Difference: $24.92
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.43, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

Following a first read through today's market update, UBS analysts find REA Group's 3Q25 result rather mixed, with revenue slightly ahead of forecasts, but higher-than-expected operating costs providing negative offset.

April listing volumes fell -11% year-on-year, including -16% declines in both Sydney and Melbourne, though FY25 guidance for 1–2% listing growth and 13–15% yield improvement remains unchanged.

UBS sees potential upside to consensus from pricing increases and revenue deferral, but also flags downside risk from elevated opex.

Forecast EPS for 2025 remains at 425c, while estimates for 2026 and 2027 are 511c and 588c respectivel; all are slightly below consensus.

Buy, price target of $294.

Target price is $294.00 Current Price is $250.08 Difference: $43.92
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.43, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SIQ as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter assesses Smartgroup Corp's 1Q25 as positive but lowered forecasts to account for weaker settlement growth.

The broker highlights 21% of new car orders in 1Q comprised PHEV vehicles, but to qualify for FBT exemption, they had to settle by March. This raises settlement risk.

Trend in leasing yields was strong despite continued price falls, the broker notes.

EPS forecast for FY25 was unchanged, but FY26 was cut by -2%. 

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to $8.50 from $10.15 on lower forward PE in line with historical trend.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.24 Difference: $0.26
If SIQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes the 1Q25 report from Smartgroup Corp appears to meet 1H25 consensus earnings expectations, with average monthly revenue rising 10% on the previous period and flat on 2H24.

Average monthly orders ex refinance rose 21% on a year earlier and up 9% on 2H24, boosted by the PHEV incentive and a backlog around $12m, the broker details.

Novated continued to advance market share over the period, which the analyst interprets as a level of certainty that the market is less volatile than the system.

Equal-weight with $9 target price. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.24 Difference: $0.76
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Add (1) -

Morgans maintains an Add rating on Super Retail Group and lowers the target price to $16.15 from $16.95, reflecting higher cost guidance in FY26.

While the trading update was softer than expected, it was better than feared by the broker, with strong growth from BCF and rebel offsetting weakness in Supercheap Auto and Macpac.

For the period covering weeks 27-44 of FY25, group sales rose by 4.5% and like-for-like sales increased 3.1%, with BCF leading at 9.1% and rebel at 3.5%, while Supercheap Auto and Macpac were marginally negative, highlights the analyst.

Management reaffirmed FY25 unallocated PBT cost guidance of -$42m. FY26 is expected to see a significant cost step-up of $61.5m due to investment in distribution and systems, explains Morgans.

Target price is $16.15 Current Price is $13.49 Difference: $2.66
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Suncorp Group CAT costs for the end of April came in at around $1.1bn, lower than the FY25 company budget by circa -$450m, Morgan Stanley explains.

With 1H25 below budget, the April update infers to the analyst the 2H25 to date CAT costs are running around -$170m below budget, and typically May/June are low CAT months.

Management has deferred any further capital management due to market volatility until the FY25 August earnings report.

Overweight. Target price $22.75. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $22.75 Current Price is $20.41 Difference: $2.34
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.11, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

UBS maintains a Neutral rating on Suncorp Group and raises the price target to $21.35 from $20.90.

The broker notes capital management has been delayed until the FY25 result in August, citing recent market volatility rather than reinsurance or M&A as the reason.

Commentary notes natural hazard (CAT) costs of -$616m to April are broadly in line with Suncorp’s 2H budget, suggesting upside risk to consensus EPS estimates which assume higher CAT costs.

UBS maintains its FY25 CAT forecast at $780m and continues to expect $500m in buybacks in FY26. EPS forecasts have been adjusted modestly, with FY25 lifted by 0.6% and FY26 lowered by -0.9%.

Target price is $21.35 Current Price is $20.41 Difference: $0.94
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.11, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a slightly positive response to Transurban Group's announcement to cut costs by -$50m in FY26 against a backdrop of ongoing toll road negotiations in NSW.

The group has flagged a reduction of around -300 positions in FY25, which is circa -7% of the workforce, while management reiterated FY25 guidance and DPS of 65c.

The broker estimates a FY26 DPS of 68c is covered by free cash flow at a rate of 107%, which compares to consensus at 68.7c per share.

Target price is $13.66. Equal-weight unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $13.66 Current Price is $14.55 Difference: minus $0.89 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as No Rating (-1) -

Citi has trimmed WiseTech Global's FY26 revenue forecast by -2% to account for the delay in the product launch of Container Transport Optimisation (CTO) and lower volume due to weaker global trade.

The broker now assumes CTO roll-out in 2H26. Forecast EBITDA downgrade for FY26 is only -1% on lower cost and higher gross margin.

The broker points to an interesting discussion at another broker's conference (Macquarie) about a move to a new commercial model, noting a previous similar transition boosted annual growth by 7%.

But the revisions didn't factor in this potential development, neither do the forecasts assume any potential M&A transaction.

The broker has suspended rating on the company. No target price.

Current Price is $95.19. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses the WiseTech Global possible acquisition of E2open under the current strategic review process and states it remains the case for software companies like WiseTech as whether they buy versus build future software requirements.

The analyst believes E2open could mark a contrast to previous M&A for the company, which was of a more "tuck-in" size acquisition.

Highlighting there are multiple ways a deal could eventuate, Morgan Stanley proposes WiseTech could fund it 100% with cash and debt, with positive earnings accretion due to the sizeable discrepancy in valuations; WiseTech at circa 37.5x EV/EBITDA versus E2open at 7.5x.

Strategically the fit works, bringing forth a new segment of customers, i.e. large manufacturers and retailers, the commentary suggests. Overweight rating retained. Target unchanged at $140. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $95.19 Difference: $44.81
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources