Australian Broker Call
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December 19, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CVN - | Carnarvon Energy | Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform | Macquarie |
NEU - | Neuren Pharmaceuticals | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
PLS - | Pilbara Minerals | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
A11 ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED.
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $0.45
Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -
Atlantic Lithium has completed its $8m equity raising, reporting a $1m oversubscription, "reflecting interest from equity investors" according to Macquarie.
This additional funding will support works required under the company's mining lease, including a downstream lithium conversion study and listing on the Ghana stock exchange.
Atlantic Lithium also continues to progress offtake discussions with potential partners, looking to secure a portion of its uncommitted spodumene output from Ewoyaa, with a pre-payment the preferred option.
The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to 65 cents from 66 cents.
Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.205
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.98
Morgan Stanley rates ABC as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley raises its target for Adbri to $3.20 from $2.30 to align with the proposed offer price from 42.7% shareholder Barro Group and Irish construction materials provider CRH.
While still a proposal, stresses the broker, the Adbri board has granted exclusivity (subject to a competing proposal being received), and independent directors have indicated that they will support the bid.
The analysts see a limited chance of another bidder given Barro Group's position on the register, while CRH's minimal Australian footprint shouldn't cause competition concerns.
Equal-weight. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.22
If ABC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ABC as Hold (3) -
Given the substantial premium in the bid by CRH and Barro Group for Adbri, Ord Minnett believes a superior offer from another party is unlikely.
The two firms are offering $3.20/share in a non-binding indicative proposal for shares not already owned. Barra Group already has a 43% stake in Adbri. The board plan to unanimously support the transaction.
As a result of this near-certain outcome, the broker raises its target to $3.20 from $2.00 to align with the offer. The Hold rating is maintained.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.22
If ABC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $49.34
Ord Minnett rates BHP as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett notes China's steel production, and hence the demand for iron ore, and to a lesser extent metallurgical coal remains strong.
However, China's economy is likely to transition to be more consumption-based over the longer-term from being investment-based, in the broker's view.
Lighten rating for BHP Group. Target $41.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $49.34 Difference: minus $8.34 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $46.42, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 398.46 cents and EPS of 681.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 411.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 238.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 382.00 cents and EPS of 649.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 444.7, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 261.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.17
Bell Potter rates BOE as Speculative Buy (1) -
By the end of FY24, Boss Energy should be a multi-asset, geographically diversified uranium producer, which aligns the business to the likes of Cameco, according to Bell Potter.
Boss Energy has announced it will acquire a 30% interest in the Alta Mesa in-situ-recovery restart uranium project, which is currently 100%-owned by Canadian-based enCore Energy.
Alta Mesa is targeting a restart of production in the 1H of 2024 ramping-up to nameplate of 1.5m/lb per annum over three years.
Boss Energy will finance the acquisition and exploration activities with a $205m placement and $10m share purchase plan.
Bell Potter raises its target to $5.69 from $5.53. Speculative Buy.
Target price is $5.69 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.52
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of 65.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 69.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 303.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.20
Macquarie rates CVN as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -
A corporate sale or divestment of its Bedout assets could be in Carnarvon Energy's future, as the company seeks to explore opportunities to realise value as part of what Macquarie considers a more disciplined strategy.
The announcement comes as the company faces an overhaul of its four director board, with the company's CEO stepping down immediately and the remaining three directors having agreed to retire.
The strategy also includes a commitment to no new material acquisitions and a significantly reduced cash burn.
The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform and the target price increases to 25 cents from 10 cents.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.055
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $56.63
Citi rates DMP as Buy (1) -
Citi suggests a new offering by Domino's Pizza Enterprises, called the Meltz (similar to a toasted sandwich), should appeal to the solo diner and the lunch/snacking segment, both areas of historical under-performance by the company.
This new product launch is consistent with new and improved strategies of more frequent menu innovation, explains the broker, which
should drive increased volumes and higher margins.
Buy. Target $61.10.
Target price is $61.10 Current Price is $56.63 Difference: $4.47
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $59.35, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.7, implying annual growth of 263.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.9, implying annual growth of 28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $27.79
Ord Minnett rates FMG as Sell (5) -
Ord Minnett notes China's steel production, and hence the demand for iron ore remains strong.
However, China's economy is likely to transition to be more consumption-based over the longer-term from being investment-based, in the broker's view.
Sell rating for Fortescue. Target $16.00.
Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $27.79 Difference: minus $11.79 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.95, suggesting downside of -32.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 288.99 cents and EPS of 443.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 250.64 cents and EPS of 386.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.5, implying annual growth of -21.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.77
Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie was disappointed by an update from Iluka Resources on its Eneabba project, flagging that total capital expenditure for the third phase is now expected to reach $1.8bn, as much as 80% higher than initial expenditure guidance.
The company also warned that delivery of the front end engineering and design study would be delayed until the first quarter of 2024, while commissioning of the refinery is now scheduled for 2026, a year later than initially expected.
The broker has adjusted its capital expenditure estimates to reflect the higher costs, noting Iluka Resources does have a strong balance sheet.
The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $8.90 from $9.30.
Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $6.77 Difference: $2.13
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.79, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 71.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of -50.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 107.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.2, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.42
Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -
Lendlease Group has agreed to sell its Australian Communities business to Stockland ((SGP)) and Supalai Australia Holdings for $1.3bn. Management expects to recognise between $130-160m profit on the sale.
Citi notes this transaction is in line with the group's strategy and helps get cash proceeds into the business to fund the roll-out of
the development pipeline.
Despite the large one-off profit on sale, as well as the recently announced profit on the termination of the Google project, Citi notes Lendlease has not made any changes to its core return on equity (ROE) guidance for FY24.
While the Buy rating is unchanged, the broker sees signs of potential pressure in the core earnings from the business. The $9.50 target is maintained.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.42 Difference: $2.08
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.94, suggesting upside of 36.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 77.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -
In a mild positive for gearing levels, according to Morgan Stanley, Lendlease Group will book a $130-160m gain from the sale of 12 Australian residential Communities projects to a Stockland ((SGP)) joint venture for $1.06bn.
Management reiterated FY24 earnings guidance at the "lower end" of 8-10% return on equity (ROE), inclusive of the contribution from the gain on sale. FY24 gearing is expected to be the mid-point of the 10-20% target.
The Equal-weight rating and $7.95 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $7.42 Difference: $0.53
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.94, suggesting upside of 36.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $2.16
Morgan Stanley rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -
In the absence of a superior proposal, the board of Link Administration has unanimously backed an all cash acquisition offer by Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corporation (MUTB) at $2.10/share plus a 16cps interim dividend.
Morgan Stanley is currently on research restriction for Link Administration and no rating or target price are set. The broker's group forecasts are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.
The shareholder vote is expected to be in May 2024 with completion in June 2024, subject to the Independent Expert concluding that the transaction is in the best interests of Link Administration shareholders.
Current Price is $2.16. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting downside of -27.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 18.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates LNK as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett ascribes a 75% probability of success for the $2.26/share bid by Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Corporation to acquire Link Administration. Link's board unanimously recommends the deal.
The broker suggests the transaction likely provides investors with an opportunity to sell at a good price, considering current competitive headwinds.
The broker's target rises to $2.10 from $1.50. Hold.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If LNK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting downside of -27.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.10 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $60.81
Ord Minnett rates NEM as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett explains the gold price has climbed on optimism that global interest rates are nearing a peak, with lower rates reducing the opportunity cost for investors to hold the metal.
The broker believes Newmont is undervalued, trading at a -26% discount to Ord Minnett's fair value estimate of December 8.
While poor sales volumes have been disappointing, the analyst believes volumes and margins will improve for Newmont.
The $82 target and Accumulate rating are maintained.
Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $60.81 Difference: $21.19
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $70.33, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 243.70 cents and EPS of 245.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 253.00 cents and EPS of 426.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 308.3, implying annual growth of 78.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NEU NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $22.20
Bell Potter rates NEU as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
Bell Potter now has far greater confidence in NNZ-2591 following Phase 2 results which exhibited impressive efficacy and safety outcomes.
While forecasts are unchanged, the broker's rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target increased to $27 from $17.50.
The broker materially increases NNZ-2591's probability of success in Phelan-McDermid syndrome (PMS) and the other three indications, which are similarly characterised disorders.
The analysts assess the company has ample cash to commence a larger placebo-controlled Phase 3 PMS trial to confirm the initial results seen in this single-arm study.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $22.20 Difference: $4.8
If NEU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 93.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $3.97
Citi rates PLS as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Given a 22% rally from Pilbara Minerals' share price since early December, and ahead of the company's December quarter results, Citi has downgraded its rating on the stock to Sell from Neutral. The target price of $3.90 is retained.
Citi notes the company has benefitted from a pickup in GFEX futures and softened commentary from the Federal Reserve.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.8, implying annual growth of -52.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 7.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.17
Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -
Patriot Battery Metals has reported strong assay results from drilling at the Corvette CV5 pegmatite, says Macquarie, with highlights including a 56.6m mineralisation at 1.37% lithium and a 50.1m mineralisation at 1.17% lithium.
With the company having doubled its drilling since issuing a maiden resource for CV5, and Macquarie expects there may be material resource upside from the update expected in the second quarter of 2024. Delivery of a pre-feasibility study, in either late 2024 or early 2025, is expected to be an important catalyst.
The Outperform rating and target price of $2.10 are retained.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.93
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.06 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.08 cents. |
This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.44
UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -
Ridley Corp has acquired Oceania Meat Processors, a leading producer of meat frozen block products for pet food customers, for $53m.
The acquisition adds a third capability to Ridley Corp's Ingredients Recovery business. In addition to producing tallow and dry pelletised meal ingredients for pet food, the company will also be able to produce fresh meat ingredients for pet food.
While synergies from the acquisition were not quantified, UBS sees several areas of opportunity. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.80 from $2.60.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.36
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 14.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 16.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED
Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina
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Overnight Price: $133.26
Ord Minnett rates RIO as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett notes China's steel production, and hence the demand for iron ore, and to a lesser extent metallurgical coal remains strong.
However, China's economy is likely to transition to be more consumption-based over the longer-term from being investment-based, in the broker's view.
Lighten rating for Rio Tinto. Target $111.
Target price is $111.00 Current Price is $133.26 Difference: minus $22.26 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $125.67, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1033.97 cents and EPS of 1871.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1103.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 668.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1050.43 cents and EPS of 1930.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1221.5, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 736.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.25
Ord Minnett rates S32 as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett notes China's steel production, and hence the demand for iron ore, and to a lesser extent metallurgical coal remains strong.
However, China's economy is likely to transition to be more consumption-based over the longer-term from being investment-based, in the broker's view.
The analyst believes diversified miner South32 is undervalued, trading at a -20% discount to the broker's fair value estimate (back on December 8). Accumulate rating. Target $3.90.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.65
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.46 cents and EPS of 38.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.27 cents and EPS of 57.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 106.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.35
Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -
Following the announced acquisition of Lendlease Group's ((LLC)) Communities business, Stockland will hold a 50.1% stake in a partnership with Supalai Australia Holdings (49.9%).
Stockland will outlay $1,063m for the purchase, with an option to acquire $239m of additional parcels of development land.
Citi forecasts around 5-6% per annum earnings accretion from the transaction once fully complete, largely due to the 18% development return on invested capital (ROIC), aided by cost synergies on operating the business. Fees will also be received from Supalai.
The broker's target rises to $5.10 from $5.00. Buy.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.75
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 32.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 67.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 38.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -
Stockland has announced it will purchase 12 residential communities from Lendlease Group ((LLC)) for $1.063bn, plus an option to acquire additional parcels of land for $239m in Q1 of FY25.
The analysts assess the transaction could be around 1% accretive to Stockland's FY25 EPS, assuming a 12% margin (3,000 settlements), but could be materially more if management is able to get the margins closer to the company's 20% target.
Overweight. Target $4.45. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.1
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.20 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 67.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.90 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -
While Santos has recieved the neccessary environmental approvals from NOPSEMA to drill in the Barossa, Citi points out a 30-day appeals process may still be utilised by activist groups.
At this point it is unclear if Santos will wait until mid-January to resume drilling, with the risk being that an injunction against drilling could be imposed for an appeal.
The company is also anticipating a decision on the pipeline EP around mid-January, with Citi pointing out a decision against Santos could set the project back by more than a year.
The Buy rating and target price of $8.25 are retained.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.63 Difference: $0.62
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.14, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.73 cents and EPS of 71.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.57 cents and EPS of 61.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.8, implying annual growth of -6.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.00
Morgans rates STP as Add (1) -
Step One Clothing's 1H earnings (EBITDA) guidance in the range of $10-11m exceeded Morgans forecast for $8.8m.
The broker attributes current sales momentum to management's correct messaging and broadening the appeal of its product range, while also maintaining good cost discipline.
The marketing message has been simplified, explain the analysts, with a renewed focus on the quality of the product and its status as a wardrobe essential.
The Step One women's product has also been highly successful, especially domestically and in the UK, notes Morgans.
The target rises to $1.20 from $1.00. Add.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.2
If STP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.91
Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Overweight (1) -
Tabcorp Holdings has renegotiated the award of the Victorian wagering licences for an implied $864m, including a $600m up-front payment and $30m per year fixed annual payment.
This payment split allows the company to fund the acquisition via existing debt facilities, explains Morgan Stanley.
The broker highlights the award secures retail exclusivity for 20 years and re-sets profitability.
Morgan Stanley's Overweight rating is retained on an attractive valuation, while the $1.20 target is unchanged, despite an increase in FY25/26 EPS estimates by around 5%. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.295
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 24.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.28 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of -14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.56 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TAH as Neutral (3) -
Tabcorp Holdings has secured a twenty year extension of its Victorian wagering license, at a cost of $864m, in what UBS describes as a favourable outcome.
The deal adopts an even playing field where all bookmakers will be subject to a 15% point of consumption tax, and could serve as a model for markets yet to adopt an even playing field.
The stock has benefitted from a 23% lift following the announcement, which UBS believes speaks to the favourable terms of the license. The Neutral rating and target price of $1.02 are retained.
Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.115
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 24.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of -14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $22.48
Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Equal-weight (3) -
Looking ahead to Westpac's 1Q trading update on February 19, Morgan Stanley forecasts profit (ex notable items) of around $1.72bn, down -3% compared to the 2H quarterly average.
The broker also expects a -5bps decline in the ‘core’ margin to 1.79%, broadly flat revenue, costs up 2%, and a $200m loan loss charge.
Morgan Stanley's target rises to $20.90 from $20.70 and the Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $22.48 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.59, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 184.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.7, implying annual growth of -10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 189.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 189.5, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
A11 | Atlantic Lithium | $0.44 | Macquarie | 0.65 | 0.66 | -1.52% |
ABC | Adbri | $3.02 | Morgan Stanley | 3.20 | 2.30 | 39.13% |
Ord Minnett | 3.20 | 2.00 | 60.00% | |||
BOE | Boss Energy | $4.11 | Bell Potter | 5.69 | 5.53 | 2.89% |
CVN | Carnarvon Energy | $0.21 | Macquarie | 0.25 | 0.10 | 150.00% |
DMP | Domino's Pizza Enterprises | $57.32 | Citi | 61.10 | 58.60 | 4.27% |
ILU | Iluka Resources | $6.74 | Macquarie | 8.90 | 9.30 | -4.30% |
LNK | Link Administration | $2.19 | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 1.45 | -100.00% |
Ord Minnett | 2.10 | 1.50 | 40.00% | |||
NEU | Neuren Pharmaceuticals | $23.96 | Bell Potter | 27.00 | 17.50 | 54.29% |
RIC | Ridley Corp | $2.60 | UBS | 2.80 | 2.60 | 7.69% |
SGP | Stockland | $4.40 | Citi | 5.10 | 5.00 | 2.00% |
STP | Step One Clothing | $1.00 | Morgans | 1.20 | 1.00 | 20.00% |
WBC | Westpac | $22.65 | Morgan Stanley | 20.90 | 20.70 | 0.97% |
Summaries
A11 | Atlantic Lithium | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.45 |
ABC | Adbri | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.98 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
BHP | BHP Group | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $49.34 |
BOE | Boss Energy | Speculative Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $4.17 |
CVN | Carnarvon Energy | Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.20 |
DMP | Domino's Pizza Enterprises | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $56.63 |
FMG | Fortescue | Sell - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $27.79 |
ILU | Iluka Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.77 |
LLC | Lendlease Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.42 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.42 | ||
LNK | Link Administration | No Rating - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.16 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.16 | ||
NEM | Newmont | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $60.81 |
NEU | Neuren Pharmaceuticals | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $22.20 |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.97 |
PMT | Patriot Battery Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.17 |
RIC | Ridley Corp | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.44 |
RIO | Rio Tinto | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $133.26 |
S32 | South32 | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.25 |
SGP | Stockland | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.35 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.35 | ||
STO | Santos | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.63 |
STP | Step One Clothing | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.00 |
TAH | Tabcorp Holdings | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.91 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.91 | ||
WBC | Westpac | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $22.48 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 14 |
2. Accumulate | 2 |
3. Hold | 6 |
4. Reduce | 2 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Tuesday 19 December 2023
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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