Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates A2M as Hold (3) -

a2 Milk Co reported a stronger-than-expected year-to-date trading update, with Morgans noting upgraded revenue guidance to mid-single-digit growth from approximately 5%. Margin guidance remains unchanged.

The broker highlights better-than-expected sales in English Label and Infant Formula, as well as liquid milk. China Label sales met expectations with Synlait Milk ((SM1)) supply constraints.

With a strong balance sheet, the board has introduced a first-time dividend policy, targeting a payout ratio of 60%-80% of underlying net profit. The first dividend announcement is expected in February 2025.

Morgans increases its FY25 revenue growth forecast to 8% from 6%, with earnings margins stable at 14%.

The stock retains a Hold rating, but the target price is lowered to $5.95 from $6.25, reflecting concerns over EPS dilution from supply chain investments.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.44
If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.14, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

At Air New Zealand's ((AIR)) Investor Day, Citi highlights Auckland International Airport's largest customer has outlined a more challenging outlook for seat capacity in 2025, with six Airbus and four Boeing 787 aircraft remaining out of service due to maintenance delays.

The analyst suggests this will result in domestic passenger capacity at the lower end of guidance, while international capacity is expected to remain flat in 2025.

Citi anticipates a recovery in capacity in 2026 and 2027, with forecast increases of around 5% and 6%, respectively.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with an NZ$8.70 target price and remains positive on the outlook, forecasting compound average growth in earnings of 10% through to 2030.

Current Price is $7.08. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASG as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Autosports Group's 1H25 AGM guidance update highlighted the negative impact of oversupply on new car margins.

The broker estimates the cost of reducing inventory will lead to a gross margin decline to around 17.7%, representing a fall of circa -150bps from 2H24, with a forecast pre-tax profit margin down to 2.2% or a fall of -140bps in FY25.

A recovery in margins is expected in FY26 to 2.9% with the luxury segment likely to be tracking along the bottom of the cycle.

Citi's economists identify a risk of interest rate cuts being deferred until August 2025, posing a potential challenge for the industry amidst oversupplied OEM brands and ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -23.7% and -8.5% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price slips to $2.10 from $2.20. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.17
If ASG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AW1 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Multiple new targets have been identified at the Storm Copper project in Canada after regional exploration by American West Metals, highlights Shaw and Partners.

The new deposits are amenable to conventional truck-and-shovel open-pit mining, notes the broker, coupled with a simple crushing and ore sorting processing flowsheet to produce direct shipping ore.

The broker maintains a Buy, High Risk rating, noting recent share price weakness has created an excellent buying opportunity. The 32c target is also maintained.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.256
If AW1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy, High Risk (1) -

The Phase 2 drilling program at Antipa Minerals' 100%-owned Minyari Dome Gold-Copper Project in the Paterson Province of Western Australia has identified multiple new zones of gold mineralisation, notes Shaw and Partners.

The broker states it's highly likely the thickness, grade, and depth of these intercepts will add material economic benefit to the previously released pre-feasibility study.

Buy, High Risk rating and 4c target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.016
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie attended BHP Group's Chilean site visits, outlining the strategy to add 0.5mt p.a. of copper production, sustaining 1.4mt p.a. over the next decade.

The broker estimates the company will invest around -US$12.1bn to achieve 0.45mt p.a. of incremental production, with a capital intensity of around US$12.1k/t. This is higher than original expectations but remains below the cost of acquiring a new copper business.

BHP is targeting additional production at Escondida, Spence, and Cerro Colorado. Escondida's mine plan and capital works require Environmental Impact Declaration approvals, expected within 12 months, though a more robust assessment may take two to three years.

The target price is unchanged at $44, with an Outperform rating. EPS forecasts are raised by 3% for FY27 and FY28 to incorporate the Chilean copper production.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $40.20 Difference: $3.8
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.46, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

Noting potential changes to US healthcare policy under the new Trump administration, Ord Minnett sees minimal impact on CSL earnings from lower vaccination rates, assuming it retains its 40% share of the US market.

A policy to reduce prescription drug costs, primarily using a most-favoured nation pricing structure for expensive Medicare Part B prescriptions, could potentially affect CSL's immunoglobulin products, notes the broker.

With the US market accounting for around half of CSL's global IG sales, a -10% reduction in US IG prices would lower Ord Minnett's FY26 forecast sales and net profit by -2% and -8%, respectively.

The broker suggests material changes to health insurance coverage are unlikely.

The Accumulate rating and $320 target are maintained.

Target price is $320.00 Current Price is $281.07 Difference: $38.93
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $335.13, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DUR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners anticipates FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) guidance will be revised higher in 2H25, as 90% of guided revenue for Duratec is already covered by secured contracts.

No changes are made to the broker's earnings forecasts, and the Buy, High Risk rating and $1.90 target are maintained.

The Garden Island ECIs and contracts secured to date in FY25 de-risk revenue, notes the analyst, with more expected to be announced.

ECIs, or Early Contractor Involvement, refer to specialised phases within the construction industry focusing on large-scale, complex engineering projects.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.375
If DUR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Management at Electro Optic Systems has entered into a binding agreement to divest the non-core naval SatCom subsidiary, EM Solutions, for $144m. The business was acquired in 2019 for $26m to support the now-discontinued SpaceLink venture, notes Bell Potter.

The analysts state the sale significantly strengthens the company’s financial position, and upon sale completion in approximately six months, the company will hold a cash balance exceeding $100m with no debt.

The Buy rating and $2.20 target are retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.86
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ahead of next week's investor day, Ord Minnett raises its EPS estimates for Insurance Australia Group, driven primarily by increased bond yield forecasts.

The target price increases to $8.90 from $8.40, but following a 9% stock rally in November, the broker downgrades the rating to Accumulate from Buy.

The broker believes rising premium rates over recent years will enable the group to build a more comprehensive reinsurance program, lower its underlying loss metrics, and strengthen its capital position.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.19 Difference: $0.71
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.80, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Sell (5) -

Citi has observed a surge in junior financings in October, totaling US$1.6bn, driven by rising commodity prices, the resolution of the U.S. election, and the prospect of rate cuts. Notably, gold accounted for 63% of this financing activity.

However, the analyst cautions a single month's data does not establish a trend, and there is insufficient evidence to confirm a recovery in exploration activities.

Imdex's current share price reflects valuation multiples comparable to FY22, a period characterised by robust activity levels.

Citi believes the share price has already factored in a potential recovery in the exploration cycle, leaving room for possible earnings disappointment.

Consequently, Citi maintains a Sell rating for Imdex, with a target price of $1.95.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPG as Buy (1) -

IPD Group's 1H earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $22.5-$23.1m missed Bell Potter's $25.2m forecast, implying a -6% year-on-year earnings decline on a pro forma basis.

Despite timing challenges in project-oriented segments and continued softness in the commercial-facing 'daily trade' business, the broker notes the group continues to outperform the market at the revenue level.

The earnings miss is attributed almost entirely to margin pressures, which the analysts believe can recover in 2H25 as leverage re-emerges and the cost base becomes more aligned.

The target price decreases to $5.30 from $6.20 after the broker factors in -100bps of gross margin compression for FY25 and subsequent years. The Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $1.61
If IPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IPG as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners lowers its target for IPD Group to $5.10 from $5.80 following management's 1H25 earnings guidance ahead of the group's 2024 AGM.

Both EBITDA and EBIT guidance missed the broker's forecast by -12%, partly due to the timing of large projects.

In addition to wider macroeconomic challenges in the commercial construction sector, the analyst points out the group's order book has shifted to larger and more complex orders. This change has resulted in longer lead times and less certainty for timing of delivery.

The Buy, High Risk rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $1.41
If IPG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IRI as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter continues to assign a large weighting to both revenue and earnings in the 2H of FY25 for Integrated Research, based on AGM commentary indicating contract renewals are both softer and weighted to the 2H.

The Buy rating is retained, but the target price decreases to 87c from 95c as the broker lowers its valuation multiple due to the significant 2H weighting.

The analysts advise caution on near-term share purchases, given the potential for a much weaker 1H result compared to last year.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.27
If IRI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KGN as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes earnings (EBITDA) growth for Kogan.com is tracking slightly ahead in the first four months of FY25 compared to management's prior update, aligning with the broker's forecast.

The target increases to $5.30 from $5.20. The analysts caution the Kogan First membership fee increase in April may slow the pace of net subscriber additions through 1H25.

The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.33
If KGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KGN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses a positive trading update from Kogan.com for the first four months of FY25, showing revenue growth of 8% compared to the prior corresponding period.

The broker highlights cost control and an improved gross margin more than offset a modest 0.4% rise in gross sales. The earnings (EBITDA) run rate is ahead of both market expectations and the broker's forecast for H1 FY25.

The Accumulate rating and $5.30 target are maintained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.33
If KGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOV as Hold (3) -

Lovisa Holdings' trading update for the first 20 weeks of FY25 showed the new store ramp-up in line with Bell Potter's forecast, but sales were slightly weaker-than- expected.

The analysts note the recent new store run-rate has shown an encouraging improvement compared to the overall performance over the last 20 weeks.

The Hold rating is maintained, with the target price reduced to $30 from $31.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: $2.15
If LOV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.00, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett leaves target prices unchanged across its coverage of rare earth companies, noting a supply squeeze for rare earth oxides (REO) is no longer anticipated.

The broker explains rebel militia in Myanmar, where Chinese companies produce rare earths, have acted swiftly to resume exports.

The $7.80 target and Accumulate rating for Lynas Rare Earths are maintained.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.72 Difference: $1.08
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes total IVF cycles increased 9.4% year-on-year in October, with frozen cycles up 8.3% and fresh cycles rising 10.2% compared to the September 2023 quarter.

The broker highlights the inclusion of carrier screening in the Medicare Benefits Scheme from November 2023, with approximately 104,000 tests conducted to date. Monash IVF anticipates incremental growth in IVF volumes due to screening.

Macquarie expects Monash IVF to gain market share, supported by recent acquisitions and strong specialist recruitment efforts.

There are no changes to the analyst's earnings forecasts. The target price remains $1.50, with an Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.37
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NXG as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on NexGen Energy with a Speculative Buy rating and a $17.00 target.

The broker describes the Arrow deposit, part of the Rook-1 project in northern Saskatchewan, Canada, as one of the highest-grade uranium projects under development.

The analysts highlight a vast ore reserve of 239mlbs and significant production potential with an estimated 30mlbpa capacity. It's felt expanded exploration success at Pattersons Corridor East will have the greatest impact on valuation and share price performance in the short-term.

Management is currently focused on early works construction for Rook-1, utilising CAD572m in cash on the balance sheet, and signing volume-driven contracts, notes Bell Potter.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $13.39 Difference: $3.61
If NXG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNV as Add (1) -

Morgans notes PolyNovo's share price has declined by -24% since 30 September, with the recent AGM trading update offering no support.

Consensus revenue forecasts for FY25 are $135.1m, reflecting 28% growth, while Morgans projects a more modest 18.4% increase to $125.2m, weighted towards the second half, with 59% of revenue expected in 2H25 compared to 53% in 2H24.

The broker anticipates PolyNovo can achieve 20% growth annually over the next three years, driven by expansion into new regions like India and additional use cases.

The third manufacturing facility, expected to support $500m in additional sales, should be operational by the end of 2025.

Morgans sees the share price weakness as a buying opportunity, maintaining an Add rating with a $2.85 target price.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.81
If PNV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.90, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PYC as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights PYC Therapeutics' lead RP11 program is delivering impressive early clinical data and management is increasingly likely to commence a Phase 3 trial in 2H 2025.

The company currently has three active drug candidates either undergoing or about to begin clinical trials in rare, inherited diseases with significant unmet medical needs, note the analysts.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained, and the target price increases to $2.70 from $2.50 as the broker anticipates ongoing positive news flow across all three programs over the next 12-18 months.

On November 15, a share consolidation occurred, with every 10 pre-consolidation shares consolidated into one post-consolidation share.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $2.51
If PYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1321% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights an article in S&P Platts on 22 November reporting that Rio Tinto has lifted the "force majeure" on alumina exports from its Gladstone refinery.

Following a fire in March that disrupted gas supplies, operations are expected to return to normal by the end of 2024.

The broker believes lifting the force majeure may affect sentiment towards alumina but will not have a significant impact on Rio Tinto's earnings or the broader alumina markets.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating with a target price of $135 and an Attractive industry view.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $116.71 Difference: $18.29
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.83, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Overweight (1) -

SG Fleet has received a non-binding indicative proposal from private equity at $3.50 per share, representing a 31% premium to last Friday's closing price.

Morgan Stanley notes the due diligence exclusivity period ends on 29 November, which the broker states seems quite "short."

The company is approximately 53% owned by Super Group, and the offer generally supports fleet/leasing valuations and could signal potential industry consolidation.

The Overweight rating is maintained, with a target price of $3.60. Industry View remains In-line.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.44
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMP as Hold (3) -

SmartPay's 1H earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$8.8m missed forecasts from Bell Potter and consensus of NZ$11.5m and NZ$10.2m, respectively.

Revenue of NZ$51.6m aligned with consensus but was -3% below the broker’s forecast due to ARPU declines, reflecting lower average total transaction value (TTV) per terminal and a softer-than-expected take rate.

In Australia, TTV of NZ$3.3bn was weaker-than-expected by the analyst, and management commentary indicates a further -8% reduction in unit requirements, with the hospitality sector most affected.

The Hold rating is unchanged, and the target price decreases to 68c from 75c.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.08
If SMP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPW as Hold (3) -

Temple & Webster's long-term target for an operating earnings (EBITDA) margin of 15% or more is reasonable, suggests Ord Minnett.

The broker forecasts a 13-14% margin by FY31, constrained by reinvestment to drive revenue growth, implying upgrades of 19-28% to long-term earnings forecasts.

The Hold rating and $11.50 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.63 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.52, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi observes the magnitude of the revenue downgrade at WiseTech Global's AGM was a surprise, raising questions about whether the delay in the container transport optimisation was the primary reason for the downgrade.

The broker lowers earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -1% for FY25 and -6% for FY26, with expected revenue growth in CargoWise increasing to 36% in FY26, up from 33%, year-on-year, due to the delay in the new product rollout.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -7.2% and -2% in FY25/FY26, respectively.

Citi's forecasts assume a revenue contribution of approximately $160m in FY26 from new products and phase II of ComplianceWise.

The Buy rating and $124.50 target are retained. Citi is seeking more clarity on management depth at the upcoming Dec 3 Investor Day.

Target price is $124.50 Current Price is $122.71 Difference: $1.79
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $139.79, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WTC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades WiseTech Global to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target price by 53% to $152.70.

The broker notes delays to new products have led to FY25 revenue guidance being revised down -6% at the midpoint and earnings down -7% at the midpoint. ComplianceWise has been released as expected, while Container Transport Optimisation has been delayed to 2H25 due to media disruptions.

The analyst emphasises no evidence of misconduct has been found, describing recent media stories as "short-term noise." Industry insights suggest CargoWise has potential to expand beyond freight forwarding to Beneficial Cargo Owners, which represent the other 50% of global manufactured trade volumes. WiseTech is also increasing sales per customer.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -7% for FY25 and -4% for FY26.

The analyst highlights WiseTech's "unassailable competitive advantage" through its CargoWise data set and views Container Transport Optimisation as a "whitespace opportunity" with no competitors.

Target price is $152.70 Current Price is $122.71 Difference: $29.99
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $139.79, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

Looking at changes to the board, CEO, and AGM guidance for FY25, Morgan Stanley believes the outlook for WiseTech Global remains highly positive.

Following industry conversations over the past three to six months with customers, competitors, and experts, the analyst highlights evidence the company's software generates both higher profits and faster growth for users.

WiseTech is growing more rapidly than its main competitors. Investment in R&D and new products is expected to strengthen its competitive moat.

Morgan Stanley estimates the company's total addressable market at approximately US$20bn, up from US$10bn, and growing at a compound annual rate of 15% to reach US$40bn by 2030.

The broker raises the target price to $160 from $120, with the Overweight rating unchanged. Industry View remains Attractive.

Notably, the bull case share price target increases to $200 from $160, through the "lens of an SaaS investor".

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $122.71 Difference: $37.29
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $139.79, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources