Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

A number of US casinos have announced the temporary suspension of operations to reduce the spread of coronavirus.

UBS estimates, if all casinos were shut for six months and zero machines were replaced, then Aristocrat Leisure would still generate around $800m in operating earnings (EBITDA).

The broker also assesses that, while concern over land-based earnings is warranted, the company's competitive position is strong. UBS retains Buy and a $39.60 target.

Target price is $39.60 Current Price is $21.08 Difference: $18.52
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.23, suggesting upside of 71.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi runs stress tests to incorporate increasingly bearish commodity prices. While gearing will rise for those companies with growth projects this will not be to levels that should cause concern.

BHP Group is now trading at a -33% discount to the broker's base case and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is reduced to $35.00 from $39.50.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $28.11 Difference: $6.89
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.08, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

BHP Group's share price has de-rated sharply, Morgan Stanley notes, down -31% year to date on oil exposure compared to Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) -19% and the ASX200's -14% (year to date).

The broker considers this overdone and sees an opportunity to gain exposure to a quality business with potential to generate attractive free cash flow through the cycle, a robust balance sheet and prudent capital allocation.

If the broker plugs in its base case commodity price forecasts and oil at current spot for perpetuity, valuation is still $32.70, well above the traded price. Upgrade to Overweight. Target falls to $36.50 from $37.50.

Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $28.11 Difference: $8.39
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.08, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes widening credit spreads and falling equity markets are affecting capital buffers and the company has taken action to hold more cash by drawing down debt and liquidating some equity, infrastructure and high yield debt investments.

Hence, funds management profit is likely to be within the $500-550m range instead of at the top of the range.

While there is value if markets stabilise, Citi continues to believe there is also material downside risk if this is not the case. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $5.45 from $9.80.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.47
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

The company has edged back to original guidance for pre-tax profit of $500-550m after upgrading to the top end of that range in February. Funds management and interest costs account for around -$10m of the backtracking, Credit Suisse asserts.

Credit Suisse lowers estimates for pre-tax profit in FY20 by -4% and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $5.40 from $9.40.

The broker believes extreme investment market volatility should bode well for annuity sales, although the company's exposure to volatility is a risk to the capital position.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.42
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

The company has reverted back to its original guidance, expecting a pre-tax profit range of $500-550m as opposed to the top end of the range.

Macquarie understands most of the adjustment has occurred in the funds management division.

The broker continues to like the long-term growth aspect but retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $10.00.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.52
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Challenger has broadened its FY20 profit guidance which, all else being equal, implies a -4% reduction in the broker's earnings forecast at the midpoint. Marking to market at the present time could reduce this, but that is to discount the benefit of management actions. Challenger is actively managing its portfolio.

Wider credit spreads are actually a tailwind for the company's business, the broker notes, and market dislocation may present opportunities. Market volatility may also increase demand for Challenger's defensive products. Equal-weight and $8.60 target retained.

Industry view: in Line.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $3.62
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -

Challenger has signalled it is actively managing its investment portfolio and has returned its pre-tax profit guidance for FY20 to $500-550m from the top end of the range.

Morgans lowers FY20 and FY21 forecasts for earnings per share by -4-6%.

Management has reiterated a strong capital position and Morgans notes, even at the height of the GFC, total mark-to-market investment losses peaked at -$500m.

Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $6.33 from $8.85.

Target price is $6.33 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $1.35
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

The company has pulled FY20 guidance back slightly to its range of $500-550m. While there are more levers to insulate capital ratios should markets fall further, UBS suggests there is potential for further earnings impacts into FY21.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.65 from $7.70.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.67
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

The company has withdrawn FY20 guidance. The current load of coronavirus cases is expected to have a substantial short-term negative impact on cochlear implant surgery, particularly in the US and Western Europe.

Moreover, adult cochlear implant candidates may have their surgery de-prioritised once the epidemic is over.

On the encouraging side, China is experiencing a growing number of surgeries over the past few weeks.

Citi points out the balance sheet is fine, but reduces FY20 estimates for earnings per share by -79%. At this stage, FY21 is unchanged.

Target is reduced to $196 from $198 and the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $196.00 Current Price is $172.32 Difference: $23.68
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.77, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Cochlear has reduced all non-essential expenditure for the remainder of FY20. Earnings guidance has been withdrawn as a significant decline in surgeries is expected, while demand for sound processor upgrades is likely to soften.

Credit Suisse assumes limited cochlear implant surgeries are performed up until September 2020. Adult surgeries, which make up between 50-75% of all cochlear implant surgeries are unlikely to occur in the current environment.

The broker does not forecast implant unit sales recovering to pre-virus levels until the second half of FY21 and FY22. Target is reduced to $197 from $230. Neutral retained.

Target price is $197.00 Current Price is $172.32 Difference: $24.68
If COH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.77, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Outperform (1) -

The company has withdrawn FY20 net profit guidance. This stems from the recommendation and enforcement of elective surgery deferrals in key markets in the US and Western Europe.

Macquarie updates forecasts to capture lower volumes for the balance of FY20 and into FY21.

The broker highlights the strength of the company's balance sheet and believes there are opportunities for growth over the medium to longer term.

Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $220 from $250.

Target price is $220.00 Current Price is $172.32 Difference: $47.68
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.77, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Overweight (1) -

Cochlear has withdrawn FY20 guidance due to the postponement of non-urgent surgery around the world, such as ear implants. The impact on FY20 will depend on the extent and duration of surgery delays.

The broker assumes surgeries will recover once hospitals return to normal operations. Cochlear initially downgraded guidance due to delays in China, but in the past few weeks surgeries there have recommenced. Overweight and $251 target retained.

Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $251.00 Current Price is $172.32 Difference: $78.68
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.77, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -

Cochlear has confirmed the widespread cancellation of elective surgery will affect sales and has withdrawn FY20 guidance. Ord Minnett considers the decision to acknowledge the impending drop in earnings is commendable.

However, the company is unable to provide any clarity on the magnitude of the decline. The broker retains a Lighten rating and lowers the target to $160 from $180.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $172.32 Difference: minus $12.32 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $200.77, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

Cochlear has withdrawn guidance, because of the likelihood of deferred elective surgery. UBS assumes cochlear implant unit sales will return to historical levels from the first half of FY22 but acknowledges this could be ambitious.

The broker still expects Cochlear will maintain its dominant market share in the US. Earnings downgrades, meanwhile, are large and the broker finds it difficult to forecast unit sales and upgrades over the next six months.

UBS assesses a sustainable rate of growth in implants is 7% with upgrade penetration reaching 60% of the installed base. The broker retains a Sell rating and reduces the target to $165 from $195.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $172.32 Difference: minus $7.32 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $200.77, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Sales in supermarkets have spiked, consistent with global trends. However, UBS notes, increased sales have come with increased costs through the supply chain, which limits the level of operating leverage that would normally be expected.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Sell and lifts estimates for earnings per share by 4-6% in FY20. Target is raised to $15.00 from $14.70.

The broker suggests the coronavirus outbreak will embed new behaviours in consumers, potentially leading to an acceleration in the rate of online penetration and this is also likely to mean a return to cooking at home, at least in the near term.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $17.08 Difference: minus $2.08 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.14, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWN as Equal-weight (3) -

Crown Resorts has switched off every second pokie and gaming machine in Melbourne, restricted the number of players at table games to five, and restricted conference facility attendees to 450. The broker estimates an earnings impact of -15%.

Equal-weight and $11.80 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $4.62
If CWN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 63.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Outperform (1) -

Domino's Pizza has announced restrictions in France will not have an impact. The quarantine is actually likely to provide a tailwind to European sales, in Macquarie's view.

The company has launched a no-contact delivery option in all markets. Strong momentum is occurring in Japan and Germany. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $66.10 target.

Target price is $66.10 Current Price is $50.40 Difference: $15.7
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.99, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Equal-weight (3) -

While European governments have taken steps to limit the opening of restaurants, Domino's Pizza remains broadly able to serve customers, the broker notes, and take-away/delivery remains unaffected. Some 70% of sales in Europe are online for delivery, and the broker understands deliveries are continuing iin Italy.

Domino's is also prepared to move to "no contact delivery", which is already an option for customers anyway. The broker retains Equal-weight and a $57 target. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $50.40 Difference: $6.6
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.99, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Accumulate (2) -

Domino's Pizza has noted that delivery can continue in France and The Netherlands as it can move to 100% no-contact delivery if required. France is the second-largest pizza consumption market per capita behind the US.

However, FY20 store openings targets in Europe and globally may not be met. Sporting cancellations or deferrals would also be a negative for the company. Accumulate rating and $67 target maintained.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $50.40 Difference: $16.6
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.99, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes Downer EDI is better off waiting until conditions improve before selling its mining division at a discounted price.

The company has suspended the review of the mining business because of market volatility, while the process for the sale of the laundries is continuing.

The Australian government has banned crowds of over 500 as a containment measure and major sporting and community events have been cancelled as a result.

Macquarie points out this is relevant to the company's Spotless business, which is 23% of group earnings. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $6.64 from $7.93.

Target price is $6.64 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $2.99
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 99.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FPH as Sell (5) -

The share price has increased 7% over the last eight weeks, as UBS notes this is one of the few stocks that have direct product sales related to the coronavirus.

However, the seemingly one-off nature of this epidemic, coupled with potential ICU capacity constraints, limits the valuation upside.

Moreover, the stock is already one of the more expensive global medical device companies on an absolute and growth-adjusted basis.

Sell rating retained. Target is raised to NZ$17.45 from NZ$14.35.

Current Price is $25.52. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp shareholders have voted in favour of the proposed de-merger of the malt company. United Malt will list on the ASX on March 24 and commence trading on a normal settlement basis on April 2.

UBS believes coronavirus is a near-term risk that requires monitoring, particularly for malt demand. The broker intends to review forecasts and valuation for the stand-alone company post the de-merger.

Coverage is transferred to another analyst and a Buy rating and $9.40 target are maintained.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $7.54 Difference: $1.86
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GXY as Underperform (5) -

Galaxy Resources has shipped 33,000dmt of spodumene concentrate from Mount Cattlin in the first quarter, more than double Macquarie's prior expectations.

Nevertheless, the company has reduced the top end of its production guidance.

While expecting an improvement in lithium pricing towards the end of 2020, the broker believes demand risk is to the downside for the near term. Underperform rating maintained. Target is $0.50.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If GXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Equal-weight (3) -

France and Spain have closed all non-essential shops and the UK is considering following suit. Europe accounts for more than 25% of Lovisa earnings from FY21, the broker notes, and 30-40% of store rollout plans for the next five years. On the supply side, products still held up in China.

Gross margins are also under pressure from the weaker A$. The broker views these issues as largely transitory but will wait for more clarity before turning more positive. The company's balance sheet looks solid. Equal-weight retained, target falls to $11.75 from $12.20.

Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $5.91
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 124.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Sales in supermarkets have spiked, consistent with global trends. However, UBS notes, increased sales are coming with increased costs through the supply chain, which limits the level of operating leverage that would normally be expected.

The broker lifts estimates for earnings in FY20 by 4-6% and upgrades Metcash to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $2.90 from $2.80.

The broker suggests the coronavirus outbreak will embed new behaviours in consumers, potentially leading to an acceleration in the rate of online penetration and this is also likely to mean a return to cooking at home, at least in the near term.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the near-term outlook, given the rising macro risks. The company has withdrawn 2020 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $140-155m as well as capital expenditure guidance of $60-70m.

Regardless of the short term, Macquarie continues to believe in the structural growth of the category although suspects concerns over the balance sheet will continue. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $4.30. Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $1.76
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 169% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 251.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

The requirement for all travellers entering the country to self-isolate for 14 days is likely to have a significant impact on international traffic.

UBS estimates fixed costs of -$250m per month for the Qantas international division, which will represent the monthly cash burn on the assumption that all flights were cancelled.

In reality only a portion will be cancelled and there are likely to be material changes to the cost base.

UBS calculates, for the flights that continue, unit revenue would need to fall more than -45% to increase the cash burn. Buy rating and $6.80 target maintained.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $3.88
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 99.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QUB as Equal-weight (3) -

Qube Holdings is the most cyclically exposed stock in the broker's coverage, having broad exposure to the flow of bulk and containerised goods into and out of Australia.

While less exposed to direct travel, as is the case for airports and toll roads, the company is exposed to an uncertain broader economic impact and uncertain pace of recovery, the broker notes.

The broker retains Equal-weight in view of underlying strategic value, such as the Moorebank site. Target falls to $2.58 from $3.33. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.58 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.36
If QUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Restrictions on entry into Mongolia because of coronavirus have slowed the underground development at Oyu Tolgoi. Macquarie delays completion expectations for the Hugo North underground development by four months.

However, the broker still expects production will fall within the company's previous announcement. Meanwhile, upgrade momentum remains strong and the broker retains an Outperform rating. Target is steady at $100.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $82.47 Difference: $17.53
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.04, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -

A peer of Zhaopin in China has guided to a -25-29% drop in revenue in the March quarter, the broker notes. But while February was very difficult, March has seen a strong rebound.

The broker sees sharply lower Zhaopin earnings in the March and June quarters but improving trends, or at least less negative trends, now emerging.

The broker sees downside risk to Seek consensus forecasts but remains fundamentally positive on Seek and its Zhaopin investment. Overweight retained, target falls to $21 from $22. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $15.95 Difference: $5.05
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.00, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGR as Overweight (1) -

Star Entertainment has switched off every second pokie and gaming machine, restricted the number of players at table games, and restricted conference facility attendees to under 500.

The broker estimates an earnings impact of -40%. Star is down -50% in a month compared to -27% for the index, the broker notes.

Overweight and $4.50 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $2.42
If SGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 114.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has welcomed the signs that Australian private health providers, such as Sonic Healthcare, are rapidly expanding testing capacity following the recent positive experience with coronavirus patient testing in South Korea.

This has come despite the maintenance of tight guidelines limiting the number of patients being tested.

The broker is also encouraged by growing testing volumes in other key markets such as the US and Germany. The broker retains an Accumulate rating and $35 target.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $29.33 Difference: $5.67
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.52, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie understands the general insurers have limited exposure to losses stemming from coronavirus.

Following some concerns about the banking arm the broker incorporates -$400m in pre-tax impairment losses.

However, value appears to be returning at current levels and Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is reduced to $9.80 from $11.30.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.71 Difference: $0.09
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to lower expectations for international passenger travel. While questions remain around the recovery and the pace at which demand can be restored, the broker suggests the stock is attractive at current prices.

Capital expenditure programs are likely to be delayed and the broker expects a reduction in capital expenditure of -$100m in 2020. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $7.94 from $8.18.

Target price is $7.94 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $3.13
If SYD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting upside of 52.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SYD as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has again reviewed passenger numbers, expecting the requirement that international arrivals must self-isolate for a period of 14 days will have a dramatic impact.

International passengers are likely to be down -80% on the same period last year, the broker assesses.

Sydney Airport is considered an attractive long-term asset and the stock is trading at a discount to fair value. Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and reduces the target to $5.80 from $7.50.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.99
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting upside of 52.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TCL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett considers infrastructure a defensive asset class with long-dated cash flow. Despite short-term disruptions to traffic, growth drivers are expected to return.

Loan covenants for Transurban are assessed as sufficiently insulated from extreme traffic scenarios. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $14.50 from $17.00.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $3.43
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TRS as Underweight (5) -

The Reject Shop has experienced a material increase in sales as it stocks a lot of what cannot now be found at a supermarket. The flow of fresh stock from China is also restarting, the broker notes.

However the weaker A$ will impact on gross margins, and strong sales are being driven by a pull-forward in demand, meaning the company will have to keep an eye on its inventory levels.

Underweight retained and $1.26 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: minus $1.49 (current price is over target).
If TRS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates URW as Neutral (3) -

Store closures are occurring in parts of the EU but the company has not quantified the downside.

Macquarie suggests there is clear downside risk to earnings, which will depend on the length of the lockdowns now in place across parts of Europe.

The broker's main concern is the outlook for the balance sheet. Neutral maintained. Target is $9.83.

Target price is $9.83 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $5.28
If URW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting upside of 128.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Sales in supermarkets have spiked, consistent with global trends. However, UBS notes, increased sales have come with increased costs through the supply chain, which limits the level of operating leverage that would normally be expected.

The broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral and lifts estimates for earnings per share by 4-6% in FY20. Target is raised to $39.70 from $39.30.

The broker suggests the coronavirus outbreak will embed new behaviours in consumers, potentially leading to an acceleration in the rate of online penetration and this is also likely to mean a return to cooking at home, at least in the near term.

Target price is $39.70 Current Price is $40.25 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.63, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources