Australian Broker Call
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September 02, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AVG - | Aust Vintage | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
PBH - | Pointsbet Holdings | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
WAF - | West African Resources | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
Z1P - | Zip Co | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -
Chevron has commenced legal proceedings in respect of signage at 177 retail sites across Australia. Ampol's licence agreement with Chevron was terminated at the end of 2019 with the work-out period up to 2022 and Ampol has started removing the Caltex brand.
Morgan Stanley considers the risk of the proceedings relatively low but suspects Ampol may be forced to remove the sites quicker than it previously intended.
The broker also notes the stock has traded poorly since the August results, although it is likely the balance sheet will be close to "buyback territory" by the end of the year.
Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating with a $31 target. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $25.62 Difference: $5.38
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.06, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.0, implying annual growth of -42.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 122.00 cents and EPS of 204.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.3, implying annual growth of 82.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.36
Morgans rates AMX as Add (1) -
Morgans notes the Aerometrex revenue growth trajectory was preserved in the second half, despite covid-19 impacts.
There has been some impressive growth in the MetroMap product with annual recurring revenue (ARR) going from $1.66m in June to $2.87m at the end of August, highlights the broker.
Additionally, the move towards subscription revenue is showing good progress, with success in key verticals such as insurance and utilities.
Morgans believes the company trades at an excessive discount to listed competitor Nearmap ((NEA)). The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $1.83 from $1.99
Target price is $1.83 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.47
If AMX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AVG AUSTRALIAN VINTAGE PTY LTD
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $0.48
Morgans rates AVG as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Australian Vintage delivered a solid FY20 result slightly ahead of Morgans forecasts.
The broker highlights the UK/Europe business was the standout, while Australia also performed strongly. Conditions remain challenging in North America and Asia.
FY21 outlook comments were positive and management is targeting a 48% improvement in return on capital employed (ROCE), with lower wine costs to provide a significant tailwind, explains the analyst.
The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target price is increased to $0.62 from $0.50.
Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.14
If AVG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $4.28
Macquarie rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -
Aurizon Holdings has won the WIRP access dispute with Glencore, which is likely to see a one-off gain in FY21, reports Macquarie. After FY21, a steady $10m-$14m in earnings (EBIT) could accrue for the next 15 years. The broker notes it is subject to appeal by either party.
Additionally, the Acacia Ridge decision is still subject to appeal but could add $170m to the company's cash balance if the ACCC is unsuccessful.
The Outperform rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $4.98 from $4.91.
Target price is $4.98 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.7
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.30 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of 12.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $9.00
Ord Minnett rates CCL as Hold (3) -
Coca-Cola Amatil is confident it can achieve market share gains, although Ord Minnett notes the pre-pandemic channel mix has not yet returned to 2019 levels in New Zealand or Western Australia.
The broker also notes the $120m in permanent cost savings from FY21 reflect a bringing forward of cost savings across head office and the Australian beverages division.
Hold rating and $9 target are maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $0
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.90, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of -15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of 16.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.35
Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -
Morgans believes Cooper Energy’s in-line result was overshadowed by the market’s primary focus on progress at the Sole Gas Project.
The company’s major focus remains on progressing Phase 2 work planned for the second quarter.
Importantly, customers and banks remain supportive of the company/Sole, highlights the broker.
The analyst has growing confidence in the Otway’s growth profile and expects it to overtake Sole in terms of gas output, post the development of OP3D.
Morgans believes the long-term value proposition remains.
The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $0.457 from $0.501
Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.107
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 360.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 2300.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
COL COLES GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $17.50
Ord Minnett rates COL as Hold (3) -
Coles has reiterated its strategy of securing, if not growing, market share and closing the profitability gap with Woolworths ((WOW)).
Ord Minnett observes online growth has lagged Woolworths and Coles needs to do a better job of retaining high-value, omni-channel customers. The company has indicated it is not seeking low-value customers.
Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $19 target.
Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.50 Difference: $1.5
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.47, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.9, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.7, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $281.68
Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie presents an update on foot traffic trends for around 100 of CSL's US-based collection centres. The data are based on 'live visit' and 'popular times' data from Google.
While the data series showed some improvement between mid-July and early-August, the broker notes stabilisation over the past week. The analyst highlights current levels remain below average.
Macquarie continues to see plasma collection as presenting risk in relation to the near-term outlook. The Neutral rating and target price of $295 remain unchanged.
Target price is $295.00 Current Price is $281.68 Difference: $13.32
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $309.68, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 328.60 cents and EPS of 732.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 665.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 294.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 384.84 cents and EPS of 858.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 748.9, implying annual growth of 12.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CWY CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $2.54
Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -
The company's strong flexibility in operating expenditure compared with peers supports further re-rating, in Morgan Stanley's view.
Moreover, growth opportunities are appealing and there is a high risk-adjusted return potential. Over FY21-22 utilities/infrastructure earnings are likely to grow. This includes new municipal contracts, SKM recycling assets, a container deposit scheme in Western Australia and the PET pelletising plant.
Overweight rating reiterated. Target is raised to $2.78 from $2.45. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $2.78 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.24
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 45.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.62
Citi rates EVN as Sell (5) -
Evolution Mining has signalled a focus on margins over volume. Also value is being achieved via reserve growth at core assets. The company remains keen to emphasise the potential for a larger operation at Red Lake.
Citi notes options at Red Lake include pushing underground tonnage higher via a decline. Moreover, the company has suggested areas close to existing mining may not have been thoroughly explored by prior owners.
The broker retains a Sell rating and $5.40 target.
Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 28.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates EVN as Neutral (3) -
Evolution Mining has reinforced its strategy in terms of maximising cash margins and maintaining its sector-low reserve price. There was no update to production or cost targets in the briefing, Credit Suisse notes.
Nevertheless, the broker liked the message and the more conservative profile. Credit Suisse maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $6.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.38
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.27 cents and EPS of 29.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 28.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.89 cents and EPS of 21.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Underweight (5) -
Evolution Mining has announced an aspirational target of 300-500,000 ozpa at Red Lake to exploit the large orebody. This is a substantial increase on Morgan Stanley's peak production estimates.
There is also improving visibility at Mungari with a target of a 10-year mine life, also ahead of the brokers estimates. The new goal for 350,000 ozpa at Cowal is broadly in line with expectations.
Underweight rating. Target is $4.60. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 28.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates EVN as Sell (5) -
Ord Minnett accepts drilling programs and the studies across the main operations of Red Lake, Cowal, Ernest Henry and Mungari should continue to unlock significant value. However, most of this is already factored into the broker's forecasts.
The company has outlined a continuation of the reserve pricing and a focus on margin. Production at Red Lake is expected to be 300-500,000 ozpa while Cowal should sustain 350,000 ozpa.
The broker retains a Sell rating and raises the target to $4.40 from $4.20.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 28.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EVT EVENT HOSPITALITY AND ENTERTAINMENT LTD
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $7.89
Citi rates EVT as Neutral (3) -
Citi remains concerned that the pandemic has accelerated the structural headwinds that face the company's businesses, particularly in the case of cinemas.
Increased disclosure regarding the property portfolio provide some reassurance, but the broker believes a corporate event is required to unlock value for shareholders.
Citi anticipates a -13% decline in average hotel room bookings and a -5% decline in rates in 2021 relative to 2019.
The broker reiterates a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $9.35 from $9.75.
Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $7.89 Difference: $1.46
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.50 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 42.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates EVT as Buy (1) -
FY20 results were better than Ord Minnett feared. While cinema and hotels divisions have been substantially affected by the pandemic, the broker notes property assets remain highly sought after.
FY21 is expected to represent the low point for earnings in the current downturn. Hence, the broker suggests investors have the opportunity to buy a stock that is trading at a discount to fair value.
Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.61 from $10.47.
Target price is $9.61 Current Price is $7.89 Difference: $1.72
If EVT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 25.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.70 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.62
Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -
Fortescue Metals Group has reaffirmed its commitment to its 50-80% dividend payout ratio, highlights Macquarie. However, the company will target the upper end of this range and the broker forecasts an 80% payout ratio.
Additionally, the company has entered into an early stage agreement to assess the potential of investing in Hydropwer in Papua New Guinea. The broker finds the move into PNG surprising (without explaining why), although the company has previously demonstrated a commitment to pursuing green power
The Outperform rating and target price of $20 are unchanged.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.62 Difference: $2.38
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.59, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 235.35 cents and EPS of 295.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 235.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 13.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 168.74 cents and EPS of 211.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.2, implying annual growth of -33.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.92
Morgans rates HLO as Add (1) -
The underlying earnings for Helloworld missed Morgans forecast, but underlying profit exceeded the forecast.
The broker highlights the balance sheet was stronger than expected and has been further strengthened post year end following the $50m capital raising.
Over the last three months, the company's corporate business has shown signs of recovery and management expects further improvement as state borders reopen, explains the analyst.
Given its low-cost base, the company is targeting to be profitable from January 2021. However, earnings are not expected to recover to FY19 levels until FY24 given the company's greater exposure to international travel, notes the broker.
The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $2.38 from $2.46.
Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.46
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates HLO as Buy (1) -
The Helloworld Travel result was messy, Ord Minnett notes, but not unexpected. The financial position has improved after the recent capital raising but the issue for the broker is what the future prospects hold.
The broker expects a material reduction in travel agent numbers but while the size of the industry may be smaller, the demand for advice will not disappear and may become even more relevant.
At this stage, the company appears in a reasonable position to outlast competitors and Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $2.13 from $2.45.
Target price is $2.13 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.21
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IFL IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $4.63
Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Equal-weight (3) -
The purchase of MLC could enhance IOOF's scale and ability to navigate industry headwinds, Morgan Stanley asserts. It would also bolster the corporate super capabilities.
Dilution from the capital raising required to undertake the transaction has meant the broker reduces estimates for earnings per share by -41% in FY21 and -45% in FY22.
Morgan Stanley is currently restricted on rating and target. Industry view: In-Line.
Current Price is $4.63. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of -24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of -1.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $4.01
Morgan Stanley rates LNK as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley suspects challenging operating conditions will persist in FY21 although the company has growth options which could become clearer in FY22.
The broker reduces operating earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -6% for FY21 because of lower loan servicing revenue and higher technical costs. Estimates rise by 7% for FY22 as loan servicing recovers and fund solutions deliver growth.
The broker now expects a $150m capital return from PEXA while the sale of the South African corporate market business should further reduce gearing.
Underweight rating and In-Line industry view maintained. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.50.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If LNK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.54, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 36.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.60
Macquarie rates ORE as Underperform (5) -
Macquarie notes Orocobre’s FY20 operating income (EBITDA) was mostly on expected lines, with a loss (NPAT) of -US$67.5m driven by larger impairments and fx.
The broker reports the company completed its $126m institutional placement, the proceeds of which will support its balance sheet and provide flexibility to expand.
An MOU has been announced with PPES (a Toyota/Panasonic JV) for long-term supply of battery-grade lithium hydroxide and carbonate.
The broker is pleased with the company's efforts but notes weak demand could persist until 2023. A more positive environment is still some time away, adds the broker.
Macquarie maintains its Underperform rating with the target price increasing to $2.60 from $2.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PAC PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $5.98
Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -
The company managed to reach the top of FY20 guidance despite the pandemic. Ord Minnett welcomes this resilience which provides a reasonable level of certainty over the forward profit profile.
The broker expects compound growth in earnings per share of 9% out to FY23 and dividend growth of 13%, thanks to an increased pay-out ratio. The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $7.60 from $7.47.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $1.62
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 55.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 62.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.07
Macquarie rates PAN as Neutral (3) -
Panoramic Resources' FY20 financial result, with a loss of -$87.4m, was softer than Macquarie expected.
The broker expects Savannah to restart in late FY21, with production recommencing in early FY22. Completion of ventilation works will be the near term catalyst, notes the broker.
Macquarie expects the company to remain loss-making until FY25 and retains its Neutral rating. Target is $0.07.
Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.20
Ord Minnett rates PBH as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
FY20 results were better than Ord Minnett forecast. Results were overshadowed by the partnership deal with NBC, which should allow the PointsBet brand awareness to "skyrocket" in key markets.
Despite the merits of the deal and the strong chance of success in building USmarket share, the jump in the share price means the stock is now trading around fair value. Hence Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target is raised to $13.60 from $6.15.
Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $13.20 Difference: $0.4
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 50.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 54.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.63
Morgans rates SFR as Hold (3) -
Strong FY20 financials for Sandfire Resources were in-line with market expectations, and the free cashflow outlook looks compelling to Morgans.
The broker notes Degrussa remains a robust operating cash generator, supporting a 14cps final dividend that was higher than expected. However, offshore projects look unlikely to time well with the exhaustion of Degrussa, leaving material uncertainty around earnings in two to three years, highlights the analyst.
In coming months, updated feasibility studies should provide substantial new details for the company’s T3 copper-silver project (Botswana) and its Black butte copper project (Montana), explains Morgans.
The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $5.03 from $5.22.
Target price is $5.03 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.4
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.66
Morgan Stanley rates SIG as Underweight (5) -
Ahead of the first half result on September 10, Morgan Stanley forecasts a -20% fall in sales revenue and -24% in earnings, as this includes the old Chemist Warehouse contract.
The broker envisages a wide range of possible scenarios in FY21 yet suspects FY20/21 represents the earnings trough.
Underweight rating, In-Line industry view. Target is raised to $0.60 from $0.49.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in January.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of 22.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SLK SEALINK TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $4.90
Macquarie rates SLK as Outperform (1) -
Sealink Travel Group's FY20 financial result was mostly ahead of Macquarie's forecast, with the bottom line helped by cost management and transit systems.
The broker's investment thesis, which includes considerable exposure to transit systems, cost-plus contracts and commuter earnings via M&T, remains intact. Moreover, the focus going ahead will be on M&A, international expansion and contract wins.
Exposure to defensive assets expected to benefit from recovery prompts the broker to retain its Outperform rating. Target price increased to $5.37 from $5.02.
Target price is $5.37 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.47
If SLK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 21.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.49
Ord Minnett rates UWL as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett observes the growth runway is clear with updated policy suggesting the status quo will be maintained, supporting growth of NBN challenges such as Uniti.
The removal of price minimums charged by NBN may lead to more competitive pricing but the broker suggests the company has already moved ahead of this.
Ord Minnett envisages clear upside for the company in the near term and retains a Buy rating with a $2.03 target.
Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.54
If UWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 7.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 10.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.27
Ord Minnett rates VOL as Buy (1) -
FY20 net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates. No explicit guidance was provided but the company did note that 15 Victorian locations were closed for the duration of the second lockdown.
Nevertheless, management is "cautiously optimistic" regarding a steady increase in occupancy from October onwards. Ord Minnett, too, continues to believe the industry can benefit from the demand for greater workplace flexibility.
Still, this is a high-risk proposition and the broker maintains a Speculative Buy rating. Target is reduced to $0.71 from $0.86.
Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.44
If VOL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.00
Macquarie rates WAF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
West African Resources reported a profit of $3.7m in the first half with a net debt position of -$204.1m. This is in-line with Macquarie's estimate.
The company also noted its first earnings from Sanbrado and the broker expects production to progressively grow over the next year.
Even so, Macquarie decides to take a more conservative view and predicts production of 275koz between the third quarter 2020 to second quarter 2021 versus West African Resources' 300koz plus outlook.
Macquarie upgrades its rating to Outperform from Neutral with a target price of $1.10.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.1
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.05
Credit Suisse rates WBC as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse observes Westpac's CET1 ratio at 10.8% is the lowest of the major banks and with depressed earnings, it is likely to dip into its capital buffers.
This may lead to uncertainty surrounding the capacity to resume dividends in the near term as well as capital raising fears. Hence, the broker suggests divestment of specialist businesses could help.
These include automotive finance, superannuation, life insurance and general insurance. As a strategic review is being conducted, the broker suspects the majority will be put up for sale and could be worth $3.3-4.8bn.
Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and $20.60 target.
Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: $3.55
If WBC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.03, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.6, implying annual growth of -55.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 145.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.5, implying annual growth of 53.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.89
Ord Minnett rates WHC as Sell (5) -
Ord Minnett found the FY20 results disappointing and believes further downside risks are evident, given the uncertainty over thermal coal pricing. The results were considered "particularly poor" with higher unit costs and poor cash conversion.
While the broker concedes there will be time to own the stock because of its high operating and financial leverage, this won't be until thermal prices improve. The broker cuts the target to $0.70 from $1.30 and reiterates a Sell rating.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 81.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.18
Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley suspects Odysseus is likely to include the AM6 deposit, raising value by $0.27 a share and adding two years to the mine life.
The broker expects AM6 to have a higher reserve grade compared with the Odysseus North/South deposits. However, the broker considers the possibility of extraction at AM5/6 before the Odysseus deposits, flagged in the definitive feasibility study, is unlikely because of delays and limited infrastructure.
Target is raised to $2.75 from $2.55. Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.57
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of -41.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of 23.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.99
Citi rates Z1P as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi envisages potential for the share price to outperform in the near term. Still, the stock is up 35% over the last month and the entry of PayPal into the BNPL segment increases concerns regarding growth expectations for the medium term.
Citi downgrades to Sell/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk and retains a $6.70 target. Zip intends to step up in investment and has recently signed up new enterprise merchants and Quadpay's trends continue to improve.
While the core Australian business is differentiated, Citi remains concerned that Zip is a late entry in the US, given Afterpay ((APT)), Klarna and Affirm's sizeable lead.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.75, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates Z1P as Underperform (5) -
Zip Co completed the acquisition of QuadPay but the broker notes the resulting dilution is more material than the initial release indicated. Earnings forecasts have been upgraded for FY21-22.
With the increased share count, Macquarie's target price reduces to $4.80 from $5.45. Underperform rating retained.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: minus $3.19 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.75, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates Z1P as Sell (5) -
Zip Co's FY20 result noted higher than expected operating expenses. Operating income was below UBS's forecast and loss before tax was more than expected.
The broker expects top-line growth to continue but notes Zip Co is a relatively early-stage investment, with execution risk around the recent QuadPay acquisition & UK/ZipBiz launches.
FY21 is expected to be a year of high growth with the approval of the Quadpay acquisition by the shareholders and the partnership with eBay to launch ZipBiz.
Due to the unfavourable risk-reward, UBS retains its Sell rating with the target reducing to $5.50 from $5.70.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: minus $2.49 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.75, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AMX | Aerometrex | $1.36 | Morgans | 1.83 | 1.99 | -8.04% |
AVG | Aust Vintage | $0.47 | Morgans | 0.62 | 0.50 | 24.00% |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | $4.38 | Macquarie | 4.98 | 4.91 | 1.43% |
COE | Cooper Energy | $0.36 | Morgans | 0.46 | 0.50 | -8.60% |
CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management | $2.58 | Morgan Stanley | 2.78 | 2.45 | 13.47% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | $5.65 | Morgan Stanley | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.55% |
Ord Minnett | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.76% | |||
EVT | Event Hospitality | $8.04 | Citi | 9.35 | 9.75 | -4.10% |
Ord Minnett | 9.61 | 10.47 | -8.21% | |||
HLO | Helloworld | $1.87 | Morgans | 2.38 | 2.46 | -3.25% |
Ord Minnett | 2.13 | 2.45 | -13.06% | |||
LNK | Link Administration | $4.12 | Morgan Stanley | 3.40 | 3.50 | -2.86% |
ORE | Orocobre | $2.77 | Macquarie | 2.60 | 2.00 | 30.00% |
PAC | Pacific Current Group | $6.20 | Ord Minnett | 7.60 | 7.47 | 1.74% |
PBH | Pointsbet Holdings | $13.76 | Ord Minnett | 13.60 | 6.15 | 121.14% |
SFR | Sandfire | $4.76 | Morgans | 5.03 | 5.22 | -3.64% |
SIG | Sigma Healthcare | $0.66 | Morgan Stanley | 0.60 | 0.49 | 22.45% |
SLK | Sealink Travel | $5.03 | Macquarie | 5.37 | 5.02 | 6.97% |
VOL | Victory Offices | $0.27 | Ord Minnett | 0.71 | 0.86 | -17.44% |
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | $0.86 | Ord Minnett | 0.70 | 1.30 | -46.15% |
WSA | Western Areas | $2.28 | Morgan Stanley | 2.75 | 2.55 | 7.84% |
Z1P | Zip Co | $7.02 | Macquarie | 4.80 | 5.45 | -11.93% |
UBS | 5.50 | 5.70 | -3.51% |
Summaries
ALD | AMPOL | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $25.62 |
AMX | Aerometrex | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.36 |
AVG | Aust Vintage | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.48 |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.28 |
CCL | Coca-Cola Amatil | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.00 |
COE | Cooper Energy | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.35 |
COL | Coles Group | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $17.50 |
CSL | CSL | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $281.68 |
CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.54 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $5.62 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.62 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.62 | ||
Sell - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.62 | ||
EVT | Event Hospitality | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.89 |
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.89 | ||
FMG | Fortescue | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.62 |
HLO | Helloworld | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.92 |
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.92 | ||
IFL | IOOF Holdings | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.63 |
LNK | Link Administration | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.01 |
ORE | Orocobre | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.60 |
PAC | Pacific Current Group | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.98 |
PAN | Panoramic Resources | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.07 |
PBH | Pointsbet Holdings | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.20 |
SFR | Sandfire | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.63 |
SIG | Sigma Healthcare | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.66 |
SLK | Sealink Travel | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.90 |
UWL | Uniti Group | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.49 |
VOL | Victory Offices | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.27 |
WAF | West African Resources | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.00 |
WBC | Westpac Banking | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $17.05 |
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | Sell - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.89 |
WSA | Western Areas | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.18 |
Z1P | Zip Co | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.99 |
Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.99 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $7.99 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 17 |
3. Hold | 9 |
5. Sell | 10 |
Wednesday 02 September 2020
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