Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Aussie Broadband has experienced strong momentum and the business appears on track to meet Ord Minnett's FY23 new customer growth forecasts of around 100,000.

The company has acquired up to 15,000 customers formally serviced by the Harbour ISP and Fuzenet brands. The broker estimates less than -$3m was given in the purchase, with customers to be converted during early FY24 and boosting gross profit assumptions.

The enterprise and government segment is likely to show steady growth in FY24 and ultimately improve the quality and consistency of group earnings, the broker adds. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $3.58 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.58 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.78
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AFG as Buy (1) -

Australian Finance Group appears resilient to Citi, amid growing confidence the end of the rate cycle is nearing. An uptick in volumes potentially reflects a modest pulling forward of borrowers seeking access to cash-backs prior to their removal.

In a briefing, management has noted that alongside the removal of cash-back offers they are experiencing more disciplined front-book pricing from the major lenders.

Serviceability is becoming the new area of differentiation, with management noting some lenders are lowering buffers for high-quality refinancing. Citi observes asset quality remains benign. Target is $2. Buy.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.305
If AFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Upgrade to Lighten from Sell (4) -

As the share price of ALS Ltd has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett raises the rating to Lighten from Sell. Target is $8.40.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $11.08 Difference: minus $2.68 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.96, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGA as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter observes a growing gap between international and domestic pricing and expects lower cost international milk solids will penetrate domestic retail and foodservice channels, and may replace domestic milk solids.

The broker says farmers need a reality check and appear slow to respond to high farmgate returns. Given excess processing continues, domestic solids are now mispriced, which is likely to suppress returns in bulk ingredients, says the broker. 

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price falls to $3.50 from $4.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.1
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGA as Neutral (3) -

Bega Cheese has updated on trading, highlighting FY23 EBITDA at the low end of the $160-190m guidance. The company has sold and leased back the Port Melbourne site to Charter Hall ((CHC)) for $115m. Proceeds will be used to reduce debt.

Bega Cheese considers the substantial disconnect between the dairy export price it receives for commodity by-products and much higher domestic farmgate milk procurement prices to be structural.

UBS forecast FY24 EBITDA to be broadly flat, amid greater-than-expected deterioration in the bulks segment, reflecting higher farmgate milk prices. The broker retains a Neutral rating and $3.50 target.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.1
If BGA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Sell (5) -

UBS assesses the risk versus reward is improving for miners, although remains cautious about iron ore. Most commodities remain elevated versus cost curves/incentive prices, although physical markets are still balanced or tight.

Going forward, the broker envisages conflicting demand/macro drivers, as China's stimulus will only support modest demand growth and the risk of recession in developed markets is expected to weigh on industrial activity.

Sell rating retained for BHP Group and the target is lowered to $37 from $39.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $45.11 Difference: minus $8.11 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.15, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the uranium price is set to surge higher with pricing likely to reach and exceed US$80/lb over the next two years. Currently, the spot price is at US$57/lb and term contract pricing is approaching US$60/lb.

The broker suggests limitations on transmission, batteries and firming capacity means governments will realise current investment in renewables will not meet decarbonisation objectives.

Based upon such factors as uranium price leverage, underlying quality and project lifecycle phase, Shaw and Partners' preferred exposures from stocks under coverage are Paladin Energy, Silex Systems and Lotus Resources.

Bannerman Energy is the most leveraged play to the uranium price under the broker's coverage. The 95%-owned open pit Etango-8 project in Namibia is lower grade but higher volume compared to its peers. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $1.695
If BMN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BOE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Shaw and Partners believes the uranium price is set to surge higher with pricing likely to reach and exceed US$80/lb over the next two years. Currently, the spot price is at US$57/lb and term contract pricing is approaching US$60/lb.

The broker suggests limitations on transmission, batteries and firming capacity means governments will realise current investment in renewables will not meet decarbonisation objectives.

Based upon such factors as uranium price leverage, underlying quality and project lifecycle phase, Shaw and Partners' preferred exposures from stocks under coverage are Paladin Energy, Silex Systems and Lotus Resources.

The broker downgrades its rating for Boss Energy to Hold from Buy after a strong share price performance, though raises its target to $3.40 from $3.20. The Honeymoon Uranium project is on track to restart in the 4Q this year.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.31
If BOE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Citi has introduced a new framework for understanding ASX energy company capital allocation in the context of the energy transition. The major oil & gas companies are taking on technology and market risks to diversify revenue, and the broker is uncertain whether equity value may yet be destroyed.

For Beach Energy the Waitsia guidance is expected to be reinstated in July, ending a downgrade cycle. Yet FY25 will be a production peak and the broker notes there is no meaningful 2c to backfill infrastructure, so the life of reserves could be at risk.

Nevertheless, the equity is considered cheap and Citi maintains a Buy rating with an $1.65 target.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.335
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes "significantly divergent signals" emanating from construction industry trends. Housing approvals are experiencing a sharp reversal following an aggressive tightening cycle from the RBA.

In contrast, the medium-longer term outlook continues to strengthen because of a chronic under-build in housing, a surge in immigration and the new Build-to-Rent (BTR) sector.

The broker believes Big River will be able to deliver more resilient results in the short term relative to expectations, because of a diverse end-market exposure. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.77 from $2.97.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.44
If BRI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS assesses BlueScope Steel's performance in FY23 has been largely driven by North Star, as US spreads are well above expectations. The tailwinds have now ended and US demand indicators are anaemic.

Hence, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy, believing spreads will return to normal faster than consensus estimates.

Moreover, the spread recovery in East Asia was short lived, having declined -22% over the past month. UBS does not envisage any reprieve, with a weak Chinese property sector and an increasingly uncertain Australian macro outlook. Target is reduced to $20.80 from $23.20.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $20.45 Difference: $0.35
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.14, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie was surprised by the strength of the first seven weeks of FY24 trading with KFC Australia up 8.8%, KFC Netherlands up 9% and KFC Germany up 12.4%.

The broker observes consumers are clearly absorbing price increases without this impacting demand. The write-down of Taco Bell has dragged on FY23 net profit and future store growth is now on hold.

Collins Foods' underlying FY23 result was stronger than anticipated, while the margin outlook has improved. Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and increases the target to $9.70 from $8.20.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $9.25 Difference: $0.45
If CKF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.95, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CKF as Add (1) -

FY23 group earnings were a 3% beat compared to Morgans forecast and margins in Europe outperformed. It's thought commodity prices in Europe may have peaked with management guiding to a better-than-expected FY24 margin outlook.

Even though KFC has been trying to restrain prices increases to retain its value credentials, explains the analyst, positive sales momentum was largely driven by higher prices.

Management has decided to pause the expansion of the Taco Bell network and remains convinced the value-focused, youth-oriented brand will prove successful in Australia.

Morgans considers Collins Foods is attractively priced considering organic and inorganic growth prospects and retains its Add rating. The target rises to $10.50 from $9.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.25 Difference: $1.25
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.95, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes volumes are the key swing factor after Collins Foods posted a strong outcome for FY23. KFC's strong value offering positions the business well to benefit from trading down and management has not ruled out further price increases in inflationary environment.

Margins were ahead of expectations and the broker queries just how much cost inflation was pulled forward into FY23, or whether the value lever results in less volume decline in FY24. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $9.65 from $8.10.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $9.25 Difference: $0.4
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.95, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSR as Underperform (5) -

CSR has maintained its FY24 outlook at the AGM with no quantitative guidance for building products other than observing a strong start to FY24 on the back of strength in multi-residential and non-residential markets.

Macquarie is less optimistic about detached market developments and the impact of the company's businesses with relatively higher operating leverage.

The broker notes, with lower new home sales and rising cancellations in the pipeline, building activity could ease in FY24 and FY25. Underperform reiterated. Target is $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DDH as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Perenti ((PRN)) has bid for DDH1 at $0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 Perenti shares for each share, a 17% premium to the five-day VWAP. DDH1 will be integrated into the former's existing Ausdrill business.

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform as the current share price is approaching the bid price. Target is reduced -4% to $1.01. The broker notes FY23 guidance is softer, with the company expecting FY23 EBITDA of $117-121m, but utilisation continues to improve.

Target price is $1.01 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.15
If DDH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DEG as Speculative Buy (1) -

De Grey Mining has upgraded its Mineral Resource Estimate for its Malina Gold Project in Western Australia. The global Resource has risen 10% to 278Mt@1.3g/t for 11.7Moz. There was also a sharp increase in the higher confidence category, says Bell Potter.

The broker considers the Malina to be a world-class gold project - a long-life production asset with operation flexibility and very strong margins - and that this could trigger M&A interest.

Bell Potter expects the company should have sufficient cash (it held $145m at the end of March), to complete the definitive feasibility study.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises 7% to $1.93 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.63
If DEG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Citi suspects Domino's Pizza Enterprises may have been too intent on protecting margins as opposed to its customer-value proposition and this may be a factor in its underperformance.

The broker would like to see the company take a longer-term view regarding its brand and increase the focus on providing value to customers along the entire menu range, not just new products.

Another issue that may impact how quickly the business can recover is the frequency of consumption versus other quick service categories. Sell rating and $40 target maintained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $43.75 Difference: minus $3.75 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $53.17, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter observes most forward indicators for Elders in the March quarter resumed their downward trajectory and in many instances are now trading beneath what the broker perceives to be normalised.

While earnings risk remains high, the broker observes Elders is trading at a fairly hefty -25% discount to its post-recapitalisation average and therefore upgrades to Buy from Hold.

However, given continuing pressures in livetock markets and rising input prices, the broker lowers its target price to $7.25 from $7.45.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $0.95
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.82, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

UBS assesses the risk versus reward is improving for miners, although remains cautious about iron ore. Most commodities remain elevated versus cost curves/incentive prices, although physical markets are still balanced or tight.

Going forward, the broker envisages conflicting demand/macro drivers, as China's stimulus will only support modest demand growth and the risk of recession in developed markets is expected to weigh on industrial activity.

Sell rating retained for Fortescue Metals and the target is lowered to $17.10 from $17.40.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $21.95 Difference: minus $4.85 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.72, suggesting downside of -23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews GPT Group's earnings assumptions ahead of the results, adjusting interest costs higher. The broker estimates a -53% implied discount to the office NTA, assuming other assets are valued at book.

Office markets remain challenging, in the broker's opinion, with supply outpacing demand. Logistics assets are strong amid tight conditions and the CPI rental structure allowing passing through of rents. There is potential for additional stress in retail into FY24 and FY25 if higher interest rates impact discretionary spending.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price is steady at $5.00.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.82
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LOT as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the uranium price is set to surge higher with pricing likely to reach and exceed US$80/lb over the next two years. Currently, the spot price is at US$57/lb and term contract pricing is approaching US$60/lb.

The broker suggests limitations on transmission, batteries and firming capacity means governments will realise current investment in renewables will not meet decarbonisation objectives.

Based upon such factors as uranium price leverage, underlying quality and project lifecycle phase, Shaw and Partners' preferred exposures from stocks under coverage are Paladin Energy, Silex Systems and Lotus Resources.

The analysts consider Lotus Resources is the cheapest of the ASX-listed uranium mine restart stories, with operations at the Kayelekera mine in Malawi due to start after a final investment decision expected later this year.

The target rises to 47c from 30c on the higher forecast uranium price and an increased multiple. Buy.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.3
If LOT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 176% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Medibank Private has received an additional capital adequacy requirement from APRA of $250m in relation to the cybercrime event. The requirement will apply until key remediation targets are met.

While the company has sufficient capital to meet this new requirement, Morgan Stanley suspects there may be more capital  management conservatism in the short term.

Equal-Weight rating and $3.43 target price retained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.43 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Hold (3) -

Food earnings proved slightly stronger than Ord Minnett expected in FY23, while the IGA network likely lost market share. The broker observes rising cost of living is beginning to weigh and shoppers are trading down to lower-cost alternatives.

Spending on staples remains robust but Ord Minnett assesses the Metcash business model, which prioritises convenience over value, is highly exposed.

Management has already pointed out this is occurring in liquor, identifying a noticeable shift to more value options particularly in on-premises sales.

Hold maintained. Target is increased to $4.00 from $3.80, reflecting better near-term margin and revenue assumptions for the hardware division.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.33
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses the maintenance of participation in the private health insurance system is more important than passing on higher rates, and welcomes nib Holdings' announcement that the premium increase of 2.72%, originally slated for April 1, has now been delayed until 1 October 2023.

The broker notes the company's ARHI growth rate at the end of the March quarter was 4.7% versus the industry's 2.0% and recent actions should not only support system participation, but also market share gains.

Equal-weight rating and $6.95 target price retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: minus $1.42 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Buy (1) -

A trading update from nib Holdings has signalled a further deferral of premium increases until 1 October 2023. UBS notes the company continues to gain share and enjoy above-average profit margins in the Australian residents business.

The company was approved to increase prices by 2.72% from April, which was deferred until September and now will be deferred an extra month.

This deferral reflects -$35m in claim savings and the broker believes this is also assisting with customer retention and acquisition. UBS retains a Buy rating and $9.20 target.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $0.83
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the uranium price is set to surge higher with pricing likely to reach and exceed US$80/lb over the next two years. Currently, the spot price is at US$57/lb and term contract pricing is approaching US$60/lb.

The broker suggests limitations on transmission, batteries and firming capacity means governments will realise current investment in renewables will not meet decarbonisation objectives.

Based upon such factors as uranium price leverage, underlying quality and project lifecycle phase, Shaw and Partners' preferred exposures from stocks under coverage are Paladin Energy, Silex Systems and Lotus Resources.

For Paladin Energy, the broker retains its Buy rating and lowers its target to $1.15 from $1.30 to align its multiple to peers. The company is around 45% complete in restarting its Langer Heinrich operations in Nambia, the broker highlights.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.465
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 54.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the uranium price is set to surge higher with pricing likely to reach and exceed US$80/lb over the next two years. Currently, the spot price is at US$57/lb and term contract pricing is approaching US$60/lb.

The broker suggests limitations on transmission, batteries and firming capacity means governments will realise current investment in renewables will not meet decarbonisation objectives.

Based upon such factors as uranium price leverage, underlying quality and project lifecycle phase, Shaw and Partners' preferred exposures from stocks under coverage are Paladin Energy, Silex Systems and Lotus Resources.

The broker likes Peninsula Energy for its operations being in the US, having an existing contract book, as well as its leverage to a uranium sector up-cycle. The Buy rating and 34c target are retained.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.175
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 106% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Sell (5) -

UBS assesses the risk versus reward is improving for miners, although remains cautious about iron ore. Most commodities remain elevated versus cost curves/incentive prices, although physical markets are still balanced or tight.

Going forward, the broker envisages conflicting demand/macro drivers, as China's stimulus will only support modest demand growth and the risk of recession in developed markets is expected to weigh on industrial activity.

Sell rating retained for Rio Tinto and the target is steady at $95.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $114.64 Difference: minus $19.64 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.75, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses the risk versus reward is improving for miners, although remains cautious about iron ore while preferring lithium, gold, copper and aluminium. Most commodities remain elevated versus cost curves/incentive prices, although physical markets are still balanced or tight.

Going forward, the broker envisages conflicting demand/macro drivers, as China's stimulus will only support modest demand growth and the risk of recession in developed markets is expected to weigh on industrial activity.

Buy rating retained for South32 and the target is lowered to $4.90 from $5.30.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $1.17
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Sonic Healthcare will acquire the Swiss operations of Synlab Group for CHF150m using existing cash and debt facilities.

The business is expected to generate annual revenue of CHF100m and on Morgan Stanley's current FY24 forecast this implies a 25% uplift in revenue for the company's Swiss operations.

While the contribution from coronavirus testing could be viewed as transient, Morgan Stanley believes the enduring benefit is the impact on the balance sheet, of which deployment is likely to drive positive revisions to earnings per share.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating and $37.75 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $37.75 Current Price is $35.48 Difference: $2.27
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.62, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SHL as Add (1) -

While not of a material size (-$250m), Morgans considers the acquisition of Switzerland-based laboratory testing company Synlab is a strategic expansion of the Swiss division.

The broker feels the transaction will not only broaden the suite of tests for the division but also expands sales channels across multiple disciplines.

Morgans continues to expect further value-accretive acquisitions given Sonic Healthcare's balance sheet strength and retains its Add rating. The target rises to $38.96 from $38.47.

Target price is $38.96 Current Price is $35.48 Difference: $3.48
If SHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.62, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SLX as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the uranium price is set to surge higher with pricing likely to reach and exceed US$80/lb over the next two years. Currently, the spot price is at US$57/lb and term contract pricing is approaching US$60/lb.

The broker suggests limitations on transmission, batteries and firming capacity means governments will realise current investment in renewables will not meet decarbonisation objectives.

Based upon such factors as uranium price leverage, underlying quality and project lifecycle phase, Shaw and Partners' preferred exposures from stocks under coverage are Paladin Energy, Silex Systems and Lotus Resources.

The broker increases its target for Silex Systems to $5.80 from $5.00 on higher uranium price forecasts. In a positive for the company, the US nuclear industry is undergoing massive revitalisation with significant funding initiatives emanating from Congress.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $2.2
If SLX meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SRG as Buy (1) -

Taking total financial year-to-date contract wins to around $1.17bn (FY22 $628m), observes Shaw and Partners, SRG Global has secured multiple contracts in Queensland and Western Australia for a total consideration of around $65m.

The broker considers the company is well positioned for long-term sustainable growth given contract wins across a diversity of sectors and geographies.

The broker's forecasts are unchanged. Buy. Target $1.10.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.37
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi has introduced a new framework for understanding ASX energy company capital allocation in the context of the energy transition. The major oil & gas companies are taking on technology and market risks to diversify revenue, and the broker is uncertain whether equity value may yet be destroyed.

Santos is considered having the best strategy to balance these forces. Mature CCUS projects may unlock further technology at scale such as blue hydrogen or direct air capture, although the broker concedes the technology risk is high at present.

The stock is the top of the pecking order and Citi maintains a Buy rating with an $8 target.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $0.68
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TBN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie factors in the dilution from Tamboran Resources' $71.4m capital raising. The broker estimates another $250-280m needs to be raised prior to commercial production and if flow tests at Amungee-2H improve this will become less dilutive.

Management is seeking to better understand the completion issue for future wells. The agreement with APA Group ((APA)) on a 500MMscf/d pipeline is positive, the broker adds. Target is reduced to $0.30 from $0.35 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.11
If TBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

As the share price of TPG Telecom has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett upgrades the rating to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $7.40.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $2.49
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi has introduced a new framework for understanding ASX energy company capital allocation in the context of the energy transition. The major oil & gas companies are taking on technology and market risks to diversify revenue, and the broker is uncertain whether equity value may yet be destroyed.

Woodside Energy is considering a range of new energy projects although the broker notes there is a reliance on a market being developed for hydrogen. Citi is also concerned whether the company could pivot if the hydrogen experiment fails to materialise at export scale and remains a niche solution.

Neutral rating retained, on a view the market is discounting an appropriate level of risk for oil & gas growth. Target is $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $33.96 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.68, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses the risk versus reward is improving for miners, although its forecasts for coal are below consensus for the second half of 2023. Most commodities remain elevated versus cost curves/incentive prices, although physical markets are still balanced or tight.

Going forward, the broker envisages conflicting demand/macro drivers, as China's stimulus will only support modest demand growth and the risk of recession in developed markets is expected to weigh on industrial activity.

Neutral rating retained for Whitehaven Coal and the target is lowered to $6.75 from $7.40.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.57 Difference: $0.18
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources