Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett has used a general sector update to upgrade AGL Energy's rating to Buy from Hold. The broker's price target has lifted to $10.60 from $9.15.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $2.45
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.76, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -

At an initial glance, Allkem's FY22 June quarter result outpaced Macquarie's realised-price forecasts.

Given shipments at Olaroz and Mt Caitlin were in line and costs proved a pleasant surprise, and higher costs at Mt Caitlin were offset by higher prices, Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $17.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $9.80 Difference: $7.2
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 49.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie returns from research restriction with an Outperform rating on Ampol, noting the Z Energy acquisition is more than 20% accretive and should accelerate debt reduction. News of strong refining margins from Lytton add grist to this mill. 

The broker ups dividend estimates in anticipation and expects a buyback or bolt-on could be on the cards once the balance sheet normalises.

Macquarie appreciates Ampol's M&A attractiveness but does not apply a premium for this given the interest rate cycle.

Post restriction, EPS forecasts rise 59% for FY22; 60% for FY23; and 11% for FY24 to reflect the Z energy takeover offset from the Gull divestment and higher interest charges, improved refining margins; and the broker's latest economic forecasts.

Macquarie expects a rerating for Ampol given the improved dividend and cash-flow prospects. Target price is set at $39.25. 

Target price is $39.25 Current Price is $32.15 Difference: $7.1
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.82, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Apart from revealing 2Q refining margins of US$32.96/bbl, Ampol provided no other details, which Morgan Stanley awaits in August.

The broker points out refining margins have fallen in the last few weeks and are estimated to be around US$25/bbl. Greater cash flow is factored into forecasts on the assumption stronger refining will be maintained.

The analyst sees recent share price weakness as an opportunity and retains an Overweight rating and $39 target price. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $32.15 Difference: $6.85
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.82, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol's June quarter update has triggered a 37% increase in Ord Minnett's net profit forecast for 2022 (higher margins). But the broker also observes management did not provide any guidance ahead of the release of H1 financials.

Since the end of the reported period refinery margins have dropped significantly, notes the broker. This suggests the June period may represent the peak, for now, which is in-line with Ord Minnett's forecasts.

Buy rating retained. Target price lifts to $39 from $37.90.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $32.15 Difference: $6.85
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.82, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol's Lytton refining margin in the March quarter outpaced Viva Energy's ((VEA)) by 7%, confirming UBS's suspicions that Lytton will continue to benefit from strong margins given 97% of its fuel is transport related.

UBS expects this should hasten Ampol's net debt reduction, which may translate to a dividend windfall or some other form of capital management by year end.

UBS expects the market will be oversupplied as new capacity comes online this year.

EPS forecasts rise 4% to 18% but given rising supply and a lag in passing on costs, the broker expects wholesale margins to struggle.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $39.60 from $39.40.

Target price is $39.60 Current Price is $32.15 Difference: $7.45
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.82, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Following June quarter production results for BHP Group, Citi lowers its FY22 underlying earnings forecast by -10% (also impacted by one-offs).

Lower-than-anticipated FY23 production guidance (and lower iron ore/copper forecasts) also leads the analyst to lower FY23 forecast earnings by -16%.

The target falls to $44.50 from $50.00 though the broker retains its Buy rating due to an around 8% FY24 dividend yield estimate based on a  US$94/t iron ore assumption.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $36.61 Difference: $7.89
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.69, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse analysts view BHP Group's June quarter trading update as in-line with expectations.

The company shows strength in copper production but lower than expected prices, -6% 2H22; weakness in met coal due to wet weather and covid issues but higher prices for met/thermal coal, 9% and 7% better, respectively versus analyst forecasts..

Iron ore came in below expectations by -3% with lower than anticipated prices -6% for 2H22.

BHP Group's guided for a softer FY23 with consensus forecasts sitting above the company's ranges for all divisions, highlights Credit Suisse.

FY22 and FY23 earnings forecasts are lowered by -4% and -8% respectively by analysts.

The broker notes the company remains resilient in an economic downturn with perceived 'quality' and a strong balance sheet to pursue M&A.

A Neutral rating is maintained and the price target is reduced to $37.00 from $40.00.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $36.61 Difference: $0.39
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.69, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

After examining BHP Group's in-line June-quarter result in detail, Macquarie cuts EPS forecasts -4% to -9% between FY23 to FY28.

The broker considers the result solid, and production met guidance, but spies near-term pricing headwinds.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $48 from $50.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $36.61 Difference: $11.39
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.69, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley estimates a negative -2% impact to FY22 revenue from BHP Group's 4Q production result. Compared to the broker's forecasts there were beats for copper and thermal coal offset by misses for iron ore and met coal.

The analyst sees an even greater negative -5% impact to FY23 revenue from softer-than-expected FY23 production guidance.

The broker retains its Equal-weight rating and $40.05 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $40.05 Current Price is $36.61 Difference: $3.44
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.69, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett had already concluded BHP Group's quarterly update showed a reasonably strong quarter, given many challenges. Upon further number-crunching, the broker has decided to reduce its FY22 forecast by -3%.

The earnings estimate for FY23 went down by -5%. Hold rating retained while Ord Minnett's price target falls to $43 from $44.00.

The broker sees no clear catalyst on the horizon, though admits the stock looks "attractive".

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $36.61 Difference: $6.39
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.69, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Beach Energy's FY22 June-quarter result fell just shy of Macquarie's forecast but it meets FY22 guidance.

No FY23 guidance was forthcoming given the Otway delivery plan to Origin Energy ((ORG)) probably hasn't been finalised for 2023, says the broker.

The company says it will deliver guidance at the full-year result on August 15 but Macquarie notes FY23 consensus estimates are already tracking downwards.

Meanwhile, Waitsia and the balance sheet are looking good, says the broker, expecting a strategic acquisition could be on the cards.

Neutral rating and $1.72 target price.

Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett, in an initial response to today's June quarter market update, comments Beach Energy's performance is better-than-expected as it achieved higher prices for its output.

As management at the company is guiding to operating costs at the lower end of the guidance range, the analysts expect upgrades to consensus forecasts to follow.

Buy. Target $1.90.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.17
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COE as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has used a general sector update to upgrade its rating for Cooper Energy to Buy from Accumulate with a fresh price target of 34c, up from 33c previously.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.11
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CVN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has used a general sector update to reduce its price target for Carnarvon Energy to 42c from 46 prior. The rating remains Buy.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.22
If CVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Dacian Gold's FY22 June-quarter result proved a mixed bag, production disappointing Macquarie due to weakness at Mt Morgans and labour challenges, while all-in-sustaining costs improved by 25%.

The miner finished FY22 with $17.5m cash and -$2m debt, yielding a better than forecast net debt position of -$15.5m. Gold on hand was $4.1m.

The recent takeover from Genesis Minerals also remains in play and the accompanying $12.6m interim placement will fund extension drilling at Jupiter and the reduced operations at Mt Morgans, says the broker.

Neutral rating and 10c target price.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DDR as Overweight (1) -

In anticipation of a 2Q update by Dicker Data before the end of July, Morgan Stanley flags incrementally stronger supply chain headwinds though remains comfortable on growth prospects and competitive positioning.

The broker's base case scenario indicates a strong outlook on elevated demand (especially for infrastructure equipment), pre-ordering by customers and an increased backlog.

The Overweight rating and $16 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $12.74 Difference: $3.26
If DDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group's ((BHP)) FY22 June-quarter production from Mining Area C outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 2% thanks to a strong ramp-up at South Flank and higher-than-forecast capacity run rate of 83%, and the broker believes this bodes well for Deterra Royalties.

Recent weakness in iron ore prices proved a drag but not enough to offset the rise in capacity. EPS forecasts rise 3% for FY22 and 2% for FY23.

Outperform rating retained. Target price is $5.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.89
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Overweight (1) -

Deterra Royalties' royalty agreement with BHP Group ((BHP)) for Mining area C, is referred to as MAC. Fourth quarter production from MAC was a circa 2% beat versus Morgan Stanley's forecast and the broker now estimates FY22 capacity payments of $45m.

The broker provides no further commentary in the latest research note, other than to retain its Overweight rating and $5.25 target price for Deterra Royalties. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $1.14
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

Following a 4Q funds under management (FUM) update by Generation Development, Morgans notes ongoing momentum for Investment Bond sales and an acceleration in growth for the Lonsec Solutions business. Quarterly sales were the third highest on record.

To reflect the impact of the recent fall in investment markets, the analyst lowers its Invest Bonds FUM forecasts and the target falls to $1.54 from $1.69. The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.29
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Hub24's 4Q22 inflows of $2.5bn were inline with Credit Suisse's forecasts and above consensus of $2.1bn and FuA came in -3% below 3Q22 at $49.7bn, due to negative markets impact of -7% versus net inflows of 5%.

Net new advisers at 54 for 4Q22 notes the broker is low versus 150 per quarter between 2018-21 but Hub24's average adviser market share shows gains,

The broker forecasts inflows of $9.5bn or $10.5bn ex the migration from Xplore Super for FY23 and sees the slowdown in industry flows as temporary in nature due to market conditions, covid absenteeism and fee consents.

The broker retains an Outperform rating while the target falls to $34 from $35.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: $11.46
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.67, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Hub24's FY22 June-quarter funds under administration fell shy of Macquarie's forecasts, falling -$1.3bn since March.

Net inflows met recent guidance but was struck on lower efficiency; and the growth in advisers has slowed.

The platform value fell -7.4% in the quarter, the second-largest fall in percentage terms since 2013, notes Macquarie.

EPS forecasts fall -1.6% in FY22; -1.3% in FY23; and -4.5% thereafter.

Outperform rating retained, the broker appreciating Hub24's higher defensive cash allocation, recent cash rate increases and organic and inorganic growth profile. Target price eases to $30.90 from $32.20.

Target price is $30.90 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: $8.36
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.67, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Add (1) -

While Hub24's funds under administration (FUA) and net inflows fell during the 4Q, Morgans expects flows and advisor growth to remain subdued in the 1H of FY23 and then rebound with improving investor confidence.

The broker continues to see material and enduring structural growth going forward and retains its Add rating. The target price rises to $27.05 from $25.80 as higher pooled cash revenue offsets a lower starting FUA versus prior assumptions.

Target price is $27.05 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: $4.51
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.67, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's market update proved in-line with company guidance and Ord Minnett's expectations, with the broker highlighting while doing so, the company outperformed its peers during the period.

Ord Minnett remains a strong believer in the structural change of the platforms market in Australia and Hub24 is considered a major beneficiary from this mega-trend.

As such, the broker reiterates its Buy rating. Target price is steady at $30. Only minor changes have been made to estimates.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: $7.46
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.67, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Citi anticipates margin headwinds, particularly in FY23, from Insurance Australia Group's rising reinsurance costs and an expected significant increase in the group's FY23 CAT allowance. Margin expansion is still forecast due to price rises and increasing interest rates.

However, after adjusting EPS estimates in a mark-to-market exercise, and allowing for higher long bond yield assumptions, the broker's target price falls to $5.05 from $5.75. The Buy rating is maintained on the expanding margins narrative.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.32 Difference: $0.73
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IDX as Re-initiation with Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett has re-initiated coverage of Integral Diagnostics with a Lighten rating and $2.65 price target. A lot has changed since the last report we spotted back in February when the in-house analyst carried a Buy rating for the stock with a $4.73 target.

Integral Diagnostics is the fourth-largest diagnostic imaging provider in Australia, the broker reminds, adding the interruption caused by the pandemic is likely to stick around for longer, and cut deeply.

Making matters worse, the company has locked-in higher wages at a time of weaker revenues. On the broker's fresh projections this implies margins will remain below pre-pandemic levels for the next two years.

Also, Ord Minnett believes this sector overall has limited pricing power. Today's FY23 forecast sits -11% below market consensus, points out the analyst.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If IDX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi assesses a strong 4Q trading update by JB Hi-Fi with 2H earnings (EBIT) a 29% beat versus the broker's forecast. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

Margins expanded in the 2H for JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys on better gross margins and operating leverage, explains the analyst.

As previously tipped by the broker, households remain well placed to weather increasing cost-of-living headwinds in FY23. While the FY23 earnings forecast is increased by 9.6%, the target falls to $47 from $52 on a de-rating of multiples for the market and peers.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $41.76 Difference: $5.24
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.69, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse sees the preliminary unaudited JB Hi-Fi results as strong with revenue and profit coming in above the analyst forecasts.

The broker notes comparable and total same store sales growth for JBH Australia and the Good Guys came in above industry growth in 4Q22 and margins remain above trend.

Macro-economic concerns around consumer spending are expressed as a factor in holding the stock back in the near term.

The broker adjusts FY23 forecasts for expenditure and sales revenues returning to trend but risks remain from higher than expected interest rates and consumer electrical purchases declining below trend after a period of above trend spending.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $56.23 from $60.08.

Target price is $56.23 Current Price is $41.76 Difference: $14.47
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.69, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

JB Hi-Fi's FY22 preliminary unaudited result outpaced Macquarie and consensus forecasts by a decent clip thanks to strong physical and online sales, and stronger margins.

But the broker remains cautious on FY23 given the rising inflation and interest rate outlook.

EPS forecasts rise 1.5% in FY22 and FY23.

While Macquarie admires management's track record, value proposition and store footprint, concerns about consumer confidence prevail.

Underperform rating and $40.90 target price retained.

Target price is $40.90 Current Price is $41.76 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.69, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Add (1) -

Following the release of preliminary FY22 earnings by JB Hi-Fi, Morgans raises its target price to $50 from $48 and reiterates its Add rating. Full year earnings (EBIT) were a 12% beat versus the consensus estimate and margins expanded to 8.6% from 7.1%.

The broker raises its earnings estimates for FY22 and FY23 by 14% and 4%, respectively. While a year-on-year decline in FY23 earnings is expected, it's estimated strong sales momentum can be sustained into early FY23.

The analyst suspects JB Hi-Fi will not be the last retailer to report better-than-expected sales and margins in FY22, given these results show the Australian consumer appears to be comfortable in paying higher prices.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $41.76 Difference: $8.24
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.69, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett had recently downgraded to Hold from Buy, with its price target dropping to $42 from $62 following a general review of ASX-listed retailers.

Yesterday's trading update by JB Hi-Fi, however, proved better-than-expected and thus that price target has gained $2 to $44. The Hold rating remains though.

Ignoring all the good things in the company's update, Ord Minnett remains of the view that a more challenging outlook for the discretionary retail sector is forthcoming because of a significantly higher cost of living on top of a slowing housing market; both are expected to weigh on spending.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $41.76 Difference: $2.24
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.69, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

JB Hi-Fi's FY22 preliminary unaudited earnings outpaced UBS and consensus forecasts by double digits thanks to strong consumer demand, rising market share and gross margin expansion (relating to product and channel mix).

Tight supply reduced discounting and improved operating leverage, notes the broker.

UBS says the market's lacklustre response suggests the focus is on macro issues and how consumer discretionary covid plays will compete in a post-covid world.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $42 from $38.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $41.76 Difference: $0.24
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.69, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers its target price for Janus Henderson to $33.90 from $37.60 after reducing FY22-24 EPS forecasts by -9%, -15% and -14%, respectively, on marking-to-market for the recent derating of investment markets.

The broker retains its Neutral rating despite a relatively inexpensive valuation and the interest shown by the around 19% holding by Trian Fund Management.

These positives are countered by a difficult industry backdrop and an uncertain outlook for Janus Henderson in particular, explains the analyst.

Target price is $33.90 Current Price is $33.44 Difference: $0.46
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.48, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses Lovisa Holdings's US rollout in light of peer US costume jewellery and accessories retailer Charming Charlie's performance.

Early challenges for Charming Charlie in the 2010s after rapid expansion led it to bankruptcy, but the broker says in comparison Lovisa enjoys a lower price point, tried and tested store concepts, flexible merchandising, solid supplier networks and higher earnings (EBITDA) margin, reflect better scaleability from store economics.

Outperform rating retained. Target price ris $23.70, compared with the last entry in the FNArena database of $24.95.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $15.80 Difference: $7.9
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.92, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MP1 as Outperform (1) -

At first glance, Megaport's FY22 June-quarter revenue fell -5% below Macquarie's forecast, but the broker appears pleased that the company delivered its first positive earnings (EBITDA) quarter.

The broker also notes Canada and Japan both became profitable ahead of schedule.

Outperform rating retained. Target price is steady at $16 after being cut from $18 heading into the result.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $6.47 Difference: $9.53
If MP1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 147% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting upside of 61.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has used a general sector update to add 5c to Origin Energy's price target, now at $6.15. Hold rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $0.5
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.32, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PDL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse considers the merger discussions between Perpetual and Pendal as strategically beneficial,  both companies lack the scale as independent entities to expand globally with an ESG focus.

The broker envisages Perpetual offers to buy Pendal Group at valuation around 13.5 to 14x, FY23 consensus earnings (in line with the previous takeover valuation) which equates to $5.25 per share.

With a price target of $3.90 on Pendal Group, Credit Suisse sees this merger as offering near-term value creation for shareholders, compared to the existing scenario of turning around fund outflows and expanding offshore.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy has restarted Langer Heinrich with increased capital expenditure (up 46%), and has set production targets for the 2024 March quarter - earlier than forecast.

Macquarie notes the company is fully funded following its recent capital raising and believes it has a near-term path to market given the positive uranium outlook.

The FY23 EPS forecast rises 32% and the FY24 EPS forecast dips into negative territory. Outperform rating and 80c target price retained, the early production date offsetting the rise in capital expenditure, notes the broker.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.18
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PPT as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse considers the merger discussions between Perpetual and Pendal as strategically beneficial as both companies lack the scale as independent entities to expand globally with an ESG focus.

The broker notes that a merger would be a considerable acquisition for Perpetual and moves the business more towards asset management with a slant in favour of value equity strategy.

The merger is not without risks for Perpetual  from FUM and staff losses and may not be as EPS positive due to the increased leverage and a valuation de-rating from change in the business mix, highlights the analyst.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $28.88 Difference: $5.12
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.26, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining's feasibility study at the Nikosuo deposit near Edikan in Ghana has added a gold reserve of 332koz at 1.04g/t.

The company expects this will extend mine life to by 1.5 to 2 years, to FY27.

Macquarie considers the company to be well positioned to also develop its Sudan project, noting Perseus has a strong track record of delivering projects in Africa.

Add to that a diversidied asset base and strong balance sheet, and Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $2 target price.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.33
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Looking forward to 1H results from QBE Insurance, Citi forecasts strong earnings growth and retains its Buy rating. Rises in interest rates are expected to counter the impact of inflation.

After raising its long bond rate assumption and marking-to-market for investment market moves, the broker's target price falls to $13.30 from $14.40. Buy.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $1.71
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.26, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

QBE Insurance announced a -$75m pre-tax customer remediation provision for FY22 which relates to customer mispricing as part of an ASIC review, notes Credit Suisse.

The broker reduces FY22 earnings forecasts by -7% while highlighting there is a risk QBE tops up the provision over time.

No risks for Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Suncorp Group ((SUN)) are expected as they both are seen as having dealt with the mispricing problems.

An Outperform rating and $16.57 price target are retained.

Target price is $16.57 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $4.98
If QBE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.26, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has nominated ResMed as its favourite healthcare stock for the second half of 2022. Opportunity remains to benefit from troubles at major competitor Philips, the broker assures.

Ord Minnett also sees margin expansion ahead, with its FY23 forecast sitting 6% above market consensus.

Initial indications are, points out the broker, the AirSense 11 is increasing the lifetime value of patients with longer-term usage leading to an increase in mask sales for the company.

Buy. Target $38. In contrast, Integral Diagnostics ((IDX)) is now the broker's least preferred sector exposure.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $31.65 Difference: $6.35
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.76, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 has been nominated as Ord Minnett's most preferred mining stock for the remainder of 2022. The broker is predicting confidence shall return to investors about the economic trajectory ahead, which puts this stock back on the radar.

It also appears forecasts have been freshly updated too.

Buy, Higher Risk. Target $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $1.4
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 59.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Sell (5) -

Sandfire Resources has been nominated as Ord Minnett's least preferred exposure to ASX-listed mining stocks for the remainder of 2022.

Apart from the fact that costs are under significant pressure at the company, the broker also worries there might be a lot more weakness in store for the price of copper.

Sell. Target $3.80. Forecasts have been cut.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 49.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SQ2 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie spies near-term pressure for Block following consensus earnings (EBITDA) downgrades as macro factors dominate. The broker also expects a contraction in the company's multiple.

On the upside, the broker considers the long-term outlook is intact.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target price falls to $97 compared with the last entry in the FNArena data base in May of $180.

Target price is $97.00 Current Price is $96.10 Difference: $0.9
If SQ2 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.00, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has used a general sector update to slice -5c off its target price for Santos, now at $9.55. The broker's rating remains Buy.

Target price is $9.55 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $2.31
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.74, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has used a general sector update to nominate Woodside Energy as its most preferred energy exposure on the ASX.

The broker rates the stock as Buy with an updated price target of $38.05, up from $37 prior.

Target price is $38.05 Current Price is $32.43 Difference: $5.62
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.05, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Making hay while the sun shines... Whitehaven Coal's Q4 performance was "particularly strong", in the broker's own words, leading to a 14% increase in price target to $8.

As Ord Minnett points out, the company generated $1.4bn in cash flow in the final quarter alone. "Cash flow monster" says the report.

Buy rating reiterated with the broker pointing towards the prospect of capital returns. Whitehaven Coal is scheduled to report FY22 financials on August 23.

Meanwhile, dividend forecasts have been boosted.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $1.79
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.45, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources