Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ABY as Overweight (1) -

Leading into the reporting season Morgan Stanley still sees Adore Beauty as a leader in the on-line beauty category though sees downside risk to near-term expectations as near-term comparisons will be tough to repeat. Sales growth is expected to turn negative.

The Overweight rating and $1.90 target price are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.64
If ABY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals' June-quarter gold production missed Macquarie's forecast by -20% and all-in-sustaining costs sharply outpaced. Zinc and lead production also fell short of guidance and the broker's forecasts. Copper staged a solid 13% beat.

Macquarie is now looking to the company's Federation Feasibility Study, considering it a key indicator for long-term performance and remains "constructive" in its approach until then.

Macquarie estimates the company now moves from a small profit to a small loss and cuts EPS forecasts -15%, -15%, -13% and -17% across FY23 to FY26. UBS is awaiting FY23 guidance for further indications on the near-term.

Macquarie is optimistic about the Federation project and retains an Outperform rating. Target price falls to 40c from 57c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.12
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APX as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights concerns of a potential negative 1H22 results announcement for Appen on August 25th.

The broker's earnings forecasts sit at -20% below Visible Alpha consensus, which are higher than the company's previous guidance.

The company's 2H22 guidance may also show risks to revenue from weaker advertising spend and  Facebook, their largest client moving to a new AI system.

Neutral rating and $6.60 target price retained.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: $0.01
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.43, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASB as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett flags some risks from the recent formal protest by Eastern Shipbuilding (ESG) against the award of the 11-ship Heritage Class Offshore Patrol Cutter (OPC) contract to Austal.

The broker points there are small risks to the commencement timeline and impact on Austal and OPC from the protest process due to the difficulty of challenging the assessment criteria imposed by the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

A Hold rating and $2.30 target price are maintained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If ASB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades AUB Group's to Buy from Accumulate heading into the result and cuts the target price to $25 from $26.88 to reflect uncertainty around Tysers' earning potential.

The broker notes general insurance broking is in a strong cycle, enjoying higher pre-tax earnings and the potential for EPS accretive purchases, and says discussions with brokers point to stable or improved margins given rate rises have outpaced general inflation.

Costs are the main wildcard as is the gearing situation. Ord Minnett expects any rise in interest expense is likely to be offset by interest revenues on float cash.

The broker prefers AUB over Steadfast ((SDF)), given it is trading on a discount to peers while enjoying similar business outcomes.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $18.92 Difference: $6.08
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.05, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Overweight (1) -

Following a trading update, Morgan Stanley estimates FY22 earnings (EBIT) guidance for Accent Group was around -10% below the consensus expectation.

While sales in May and June disappointed, the broker notes positive like-for-like sales growth for the first three weeks of the 1H of FY23. After supply delays, new product deliveries have also begun rebounding.

While the analyst sees downside risk to the FY23 consensus earnings expectation, an Overweight rating and $1.65 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.31
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.41, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AX1 as Neutral (3) -

Accent Group's FY22 FY22 trading update's earnings (EBIT) guidance missed consensus and UBS forecasts by -16% to -20% due to one-off costs relating to PIVOT as previously guided, tore-lease impairments due to low traffic, and below-forecast sales in May and June.

Management says the first three weeks of June revealed growth in like for like sales and gross margins were on the up.

EPS forecasts fall -21% in FY22, -2% in FY23 and -1% in FY24.

UBS appreciates recent strength in newly opened stores but acknowledges rising rates could sheet home.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $1.35 from $1.25. 

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.01
If AX1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.41, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Brickworks has upgraded earnings (EBIT) guidance, thanks to completions of the Oakdale and Rochedale estates and is forecasting growth of more than 20%, but Macquarie considers the gains to be of lower value.

The company also launched the Brickworks Manufacturing Trust with Goodman Group (the former owns 50.1%, the latter 49.9%) as flagged in March, and the company will pay down debt by $193m.

Macquarie is treating the completions and the recent sales of several quarries as one-offs, and EBIT guidance, while up, was softer than expected and the broker revises energy cost assumptions upward and cuts multiples to reflect the macro property context.

EPS forecasts rise 18% in FY22 and fall -19% in FY23 and -20% in FY24.

Neutral rating retained. Target price is $22.90.

Target price is $22.90 Current Price is $20.41 Difference: $2.49
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.18, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Brickworks' June-half trading update pleased Ord Minnett, and the company launched its Brickworks Manufacturing Trust joint venture with Goodman Group as flagged in March.

The value of the 15 manufacturing plants held in the Trust represented a $280m premium to the book value of the assets, says Ord Minnett, and the broker expects the net tangible assets of its Industrial Property Trust will fall at $1.5bn, compared with $0.9bn in FY21.

The broker expects a strong housing pipeline will drive continued earnings growth in Australia and notes an uptick in non-residential construction in North America should provide further support.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $27.50 from $26.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $20.41 Difference: $7.09
If BKW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.18, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target price for Challenger to $6.40 from $6.90 ahead of the company's result on August 16, based on a mark-to-market review.

The broker holds a cautious stance, noting Challenger is a high-beta stock exposed to falling asset values and suspects the new CEO may prefer to address difference between capital targets and capital position upfront.

Lighten rating retained.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.15 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.14, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse describes the June quarter performance by Coronado Global Resources as soft, and 2022 production guidance was downgraded to the low end of the 18-19Mt range. 

The broker points out that for the 2022 production guidance to be achieved, an around 40% improvement half-on-half at Curragh would be required.

Saleable production and sales for the quarter missed consensus estimates by -30 and -15%, respectively, for several reasons including rain and maintenance issues at Curragh, explains the analyst.

The target falls to $2.60 from $3.00 after Credit Suisse lowers near-term price forecasts and allows for cost inflation. Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $1.13
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 81.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' June-quarter production (down -19% to -29%) and costs (up 13%) disappointed Macquarie, but realised price outpaced. Weakness at Curragh offset strength in US operations.

Management guided to a soft first half and expects to land at the lower end of guidance.

The one upside was the strong rally in metallurgical coal prices.

EPS forecasts fall -1% in 2023 and -3% in 2024 before falling -6% to -9% thereafter. Target price falls -10% to $2.50.

Outperform rating retained, the broker noting strong cash flow is buttressing the balance sheet; that the company has committed to extra shareholder returns; and that met coal prices are expected to remain high.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $1.03
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 81.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

G8 Education's trading update confirms  Macquarie's expectations of a recovery in the second quarter and early third quarter.

Bu the broker warns staffing shortages and sick leave are likely to drag, albeit offset somewhat by cost reductions - roughly 85% of the cost reduction program has been completed to date and is on track for completion in early 2023.

Meanwhile, the company has appointed Pejman Okhovat (MD of Big W) as managing director and chief executive, with current CEO Gary Carroll set to remain until December.

2022 EPS forecasts fall -4% as Macquarie cuts occupancy assumptions for the December half. 2023 and 2024 estimates are steady.

Neutral rating and $1.20 target price retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.14
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Citi cannot hide its disappointment in Insurance Australia Group's FY22 update with the higher than expected lift in the FY22 perils allowance to $990m from $144m, compared to estimates of $880m.

The broker remains positive though assessing the underlying business as solid even though the margins are slightly lowered than forecast.

Looking ahead, Citi expresses optimism for earnings despite inflation headwinds and risks to higher reinsurance costs with Insurance Australia Group expected to benefit from higher interest rates and robust pricing power.

Earnings forecasts are adjusted down -26.1% for FY22 and up 0.7% for FY23.

The price target is raised to $5.10 from $5.05. Buy.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.89
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Preliminary FY22 results for Insurance Australia Group revealed a -25% profit miss versus consensus. The reported insurance margin was 7.4% compared to guidance for 10-12%, due largely to ongoing issues in the liability portfolio, explains the analyst.

Management reaffirmed FY23 guidance for the reported insurance margin of 14-16% and gross written premium (GWP) growth guidance of 'mid-to-high-single digits', a beat over the consensus expectation for 4%, notes the broker.

Credit Suisse's target is lowered to $5.44 from $5.76 on lower forecast earnings. The Outperform is maintained as GWP guidance is expected to lead to consensus upgrades, while higher investment income should compensate for headwinds from the loss ratio.

Target price is $5.44 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $1.23
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Insurance Australia Group's pre-released FY22 and FY23 guidance saw Macquarie pondering a mish mash of big-ticket items in FY22 before plumping for FY23 guidance as the best predictive measure.

In FY22, the company announced an earlier than expected $200m business interruption provision release; a reserve strengthening that fell $128m short of consensus forecasts, but which Macquarie still appreciated; and a perils allowance that was -$14m worse than consensus.

For FY23, management guided to mid to high single digit growth in gross written premiums, which outpaced consensus by 4.9%. The margin forecast was basically in line and the perils allowance was $5m better than consensus forecasts.

FY22 EPS forecasts rise 35% following the inclusion of the $200m business interruption provision.

Outperform rating retained, Macquarie noting the company is trading at covid-19 lows and on sharply lower long-term averages and that the sector is defensive. Target price steady at $5.40.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $1.19
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Underweight (5) -

Insurance Australia Group downgraded FY22 earnings guidance and confirmed mid-to-high-single digit claim inflation in A&NZ. Reported and underlying margin missed consensus estimates on higher claims inflation in working claims and reserve top-ups, explains the analyst.

While the company is raising prices, Morgan Stanley feels management's 14-16% FY23 margin target will be hard to achieve. 

The Underweight rating is retained and the target falls to $3.75 from $3.85. Industry view: Attractive. Morgan Stanley's FY22 dividend forecast increases by 27% to 14cps on a partial release of Business Interruption (BI) reserves.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Insurance Australia Group's pre-reported FY22 earnings of $347m which came in above Ord Minnett's expectations of $208m.

Margins were pressured from high claims due to east coast flooding events in NSW and Queensland, with net margins of 7.4% down on FY21 margins of 13.5% and below company guidance, said the broker.

The top-up in liability reserves and loss ratios accidents post 2018 are assessed by analysts as sufficient and in line with APRA standards.

Insurance Australia Group is having difficulties in passing on reinsurance cost rises in higher premiums with market share  loss and affordability impacts from covid, although higher interest rates are forecast as a major boost to margins, assesses Ord Minnett.

The Buy rating is maintained and target price is reduced to $5.30 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $1.09
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Sell (5) -

Insurance Australia Group's top-line result beat consensus  thanks an unexpected $200m from the business interruption provision, but the underlying result proved a -25% miss.

The news follows the company's profit warning last week.

Reported insurance profit margins fell to 7.4%, compared with consensus forecasts of 9.3%, and a further top-up for reserves was needed. Management provided positive guidance, which outpaced consensus.

UBS spies further risk in the reserves department and expects margin headwinds to intensify as catastrophe and reinsurance costs rise, hitting motor and home profits. 

Claims inflation looked positive but UBS says this is based on zero reserving, which appears unsustainable given the inflationary context.

Sell rating and $4.10 target price retained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INR as Buy (1) -

ioneer has struck a lithium offtake deal with Ford and Ord Minnett says this should derisk the project and strengthens the company's "All-America" thematic.

Ford plans to use ioneer's carbonate in its battery manufacturing joint venture BlueOval with Korean battery maker SK Innovation.

The broker notes Ford plans to invest US$50bn in EV production by 2026.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 70c from 50c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.18
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JRV as Outperform (1) -

Jervois Global's June-quarter result fell -4% shy of Macquarie's forecasts and management sharply downgraded earnings (EBIT) guidance to US$35m-US$40m from US$50m-US$55m, to reflect lower-than-expected cobalt prices and sales turnover.

Inventories rose on weaker global demand after lockdowns in China but Macquarie appreciates the fact that more than 50% of the company's revenue in the quarter was sourced from outside Asia. 

The broker considers Jervois Finland's ability to access cobalt hydroxide a key risk but notes the company holds 160 days worth of inventory.

EPS forecasts fall -241% in 2022 but increases 3% in 2023.

Outperform rating retained, the broker noting the company is one of the few to offer vertically integrated cobalt exposure with diverse growth potential, and admires the 20% forecast free cash yield by 2024. But the near-term is not so rosy and the target price falls -14% to 60c,

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.18
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LNK as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses the higher cash offer from Dye and Durham ar $4.81 from $4.30 for Link Administration.

The board has unanimously recommended acceptance of the offer, although the broker notes that execution of the deal still depends on regulatory approvals.

With the FY22 results due on August 30th, Ord Minnett expects potential earnings risk versus company guidance.

The valuation and the buyback are seen as offsets to earnings and risks from the FCA windup of the Woodford funds in the UK.

Accumulate rating retained, alongside a $4.80 price target (unchanged).

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.37
If LNK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Citi mulls the quarterly update at the forthcoming Macquarie Group, AGM and forecasts earnings of $1bn.

The broker envisages higher uncertainty around producing record earnings for the 3Q and 4Q23 results and notes elevated market volatility and higher rates may impact on future deal flows.

The analyst explains concerns around the higher cyclical nature of Macquarie Group's earnings than in the past and see potential downside risks.

The rating remains at Neutral and the target is $187.00.

Target price is $187.00 Current Price is $174.24 Difference: $12.76
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $198.00, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Gold production for Newcrest Mining in the 4Q beat Morgan Stanley's forecast by 2% with all assets performing broadly in-line, while group cash costs were a 21% beat.

The analyst points out it was the strongest result from among peers that have reported so far due to control over costs (that met guidance).

The broker adjusts FY22-24 EPS forecasts by 1.6%, -9.5% and -4.9%, respectively. To reflect falls across the Gold sector a lower multiple is applied which reduces the target to $23.50 from $28.60. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $19.26 Difference: $4.24
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.12, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Hold (3) -

While fourth quarter production results helped annual gold production exceed Morgans forecasts and the company achieve guidance, the broker expects a 1Q pullback due to maintenance requirements.

Lihir outperformed for the quarter though failed to reach its annual guidance range, while the recently acquired Brucejack hit the top-end of the guidance range, highlights the analyst.

The broker lowers its target price to $21.06 from $25.53, after upwardly revising costs and decreasing copper price forecasts. The Hold rating is unchanged while the operating environment remains challenging.

Target price is $21.06 Current Price is $19.26 Difference: $1.8
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.12, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its price target for Northern Star Resources to $8.10 from $8.50 after a weaker-than-expected 4Q result and lower FY23 guidance than the analyst had expected.

Net direct cash costs (C1) and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for the 4Q were were 5% and 8% above the broker's expectations. The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.98
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.20, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

At initial glance, OZ Minerals' June-quarter update disappointed Macquarie, in-line production being offset by higher than forecasts costs and lower revenue.

The broker reports a softer and revenue cash position and believes the recent fall in the copper price could result in a 10% to 30% earnings decline over 2023 to 2025.

Management retains FY22 guidance.

Neutral rating and $20 target price retained. 

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.66 Difference: $2.34
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.48, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Citi offers a "Flash" earnings update on Rio Tinto to adjust for higher iron ore, higher covid related costs and lower revenues from Industrial minerals.

The broker reduces earnings forecasts by -4% for 2022 and 0.8% for FY23.

Buy rating retained. Target price is $120.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $96.26 Difference: $23.74
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.36, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

At initial glance, South32's June-quarter production fell shy of Ord Minnett's forecasts, but the company met guidance on output and costs across most operations, pleasing the broker.

The price stuck for key assets slightly outpaced the broker. Buy and $4.80 target retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $1.27
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 57.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SRL as Neutral (3) -

Sunrise Energy Metals' June-quarter activities and cash report generally pleased Macquarie, with cash in line, but exploration spend higher than forecast. EPS forecasts fall -3% in FY22 accordingly.

The broker notes Sunrise is now development ready and is set to produce respectable nickel and cobalt outcomes in its first 10 years.

Macquarie estimates the capital cost will be 31% higher than previously guided (first construction is set to begin in FY25 and EPS forecasts thereafter fall between -1% and -7%).

The broker considers the company's ESG profile to be appealing given it plans to run on 100% renewable power.

Neutral rating retained, the broker awaiting news of an offtake partner (a European manufacturer with a strong balance sheet is preferred). Target price rises to $2.20 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If SRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos's June quarter production of 25.5MMboe was down -2% on the previous quarter and -4% below Citi's expectations.

The broker notes free cash flow of $1.7bn in 1H22 with $843m in the June quarter with gearing at 22.5%.

Santos guided for lower sales and production and capital expenditure is trimmed to be weighted in the second of 2022.

Earnings forecasts from Citi are lowered by -7.3% for FY22 and -9.3% for FY23.

The rating remains Buy with an $8.60 price target as the broker sees value with their low oil price assumptions.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $1.57
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VSL as Buy (1) -

Vulcan Steel has purchased Ullrich Aluminium for NZ$165m.

UBS considers the business a good fit and spies relatively swift and material upside thanks to strong accretion and as the business helps offset negative inventory impact in the slowing steel market.

FY23 to FY24 EPS forecasts rise 13% and 14% respectively. 

Buy rating retained. Target price slips to $10 from $10.40 to reflect declining market multiples.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.62 Difference: $1.38
If VSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WDS as Outperform (1) -

After a negative share market reaction to Woodside Energy's 2Q results, Credit Suisse expects ongoing uncertainty for estimates due to merged accounts with the Petroleum division of BHP Group ((BHP)).

On the broker's reconciliation, Woodside Energy's assets (ex BHP) beat the broker's revenue estimates, while 2022 capex guidance was in-line. The target rises to $35.43 from $34.37. Outperform.

Target price is $35.43 Current Price is $30.97 Difference: $4.46
If WDS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.84, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Buy (1) -

UBS adjusts down its forecast tax rate for Woodside Energy to 35% ($898m) from 45% ($1.1bn) to account for the tax benefit arising from the $420m of merger transaction costs with BHP Petroleum on underlying tax expenses.

FY22 EPS forecasts rise 16% and the FY22 dividend forecast rises 16% to 17%, implying a dividend yield of between 9% and 10%, roughly double some peers.

Meanwhile, the company's June-quarter production outpaced consensus and UBS by roughly 25% due to an under-representation of the one-month contribution of BHP Petroleum assets, but guidance fell short of UBS forecasts, the company expecting lower realised LNG prices. Disappointing drilling results within the Shenzi project leads to a cut in the broker's reserve estimate.

UBS says Woodside is focused on capital discipline and is expected to sell down Scarborough and Sangomar before examining capital options.

Buy rating and $33.65 target price retained.

Target price is $33.65 Current Price is $30.97 Difference: $2.68
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.84, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources