Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates AL3 as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners reiterates its Buy (high risk) rating on AML3D with a 40c target price with earnings forecasts unchanged.

The analyst emphasises the demand for additive manufacturing adoption from US industrials, defence prime contractors, and government agencies. This is based on their channel checks with industry, including Huntington Ingalls, Austal ((ASB)), and more.

The company is moving towards commercialisation with US government funding for the Air Force and Army, as well as shipbuilding, which has been allocated US$450m, assisting with the supply chain pivot, the broker explains.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.22
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Citi is increasingly confident in its recent Buy upgrade on Breville Group following competitor De’Longhi’s 3Q25 result, which reinforces positive trends in premium appliances.

The broker highlights resilient Americas sales for De'Longhi, up 8.2%, despite 10% price hikes, suggesting stable demand and improved competitiveness for Breville, which has not raised key product prices.

De’Longhi’s group sales rose 11.5% on constant currency, driven by strong home coffee demand and consumer premiumisation, highlights Citi. This indicates ongoing outperformance for high-end brands such as Breville.

Buy. Target $36.03.

Target price is $36.03 Current Price is $31.65 Difference: $4.38
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.38, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley revised its preference order for the big four banks, nominating ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) as number one, followed by National Australia Bank ((NAB)), Westpac ((WBC)) and CommBank.

The broker believes CommBank will de-rate unless it consistently outperforms elevated expectations. The recent 2H25 and 1Q26 updates indicate to the broker the earnings outlook is now being pressured by stronger competition in Australian retail and business banking.

Underweight. Target trimmed to $143.20 from $144.80.  Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $143.20 Current Price is $160.19 Difference: minus $16.99 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $117.55, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Management at Computershare has expressed growing confidence in meeting FY26 earnings guidance at its AGM, with first-quarter earnings (EBIT) excluding margin income slightly ahead of plan, notes Citi.

The broker forecasts reported earnings per share growth of 4.4% year-on-year, marginally above constant-currency guidance, supported by improving business momentum.

It's felt lower interest rates could stimulate corporate actions and debt issuance, providing upside to medium-term activity levels.

The analysts leave FY26 forecasts unchanged, with FY27-28 estimates trimmed by -2-3% on softer rate assumptions.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $40.40.

Target price is $40.40 Current Price is $35.97 Difference: $4.43
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.77, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Underweight (5) -

Computershare re-affirmed its FY26 management EPS guidance of US140c, with EBIT ex-MI (margin income) tracking slightly ahead of plan and margin income guidance of US$720m maintained, Morgan Stanley notes.

The broker observes balance levels are higher at US$30.6bn, offsetting lower yields and keeping FY26 margin income on track.

The dividend payout ratio, currently at 45%, is under review, with the broker seeing scope to lift toward the 40-60% policy range. An extra 5ppt lift would add 11% to the dividend, in the broker's estimate.

The company remains active on M&A and is in discussions with vendors, with Corporate Trust likely a key focus area.

Underweight. Target unchanged at $31.90. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $31.90 Current Price is $35.97 Difference: minus $4.07 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.77, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Accumulate (2) -

Computershare has reiterated guidance for 5% growth in underlying earnings with Ord Minnett noting September quarter revenue was supported by increased corporate actions and higher volumes of debt issuance.

FY26 margin income guidance has been reiterated at US$720m and client balances are expected to be around US$31bn by the end of FY26. Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $41.55 target.

Target price is $41.55 Current Price is $35.97 Difference: $5.58
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.77, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

CSL outlined clearer timing for Horizon 1/2 immunoglobulin (Ig)  yield improvements at the recent Capital Markets Day.

The company expects operational initiatives in the first phase to add 10% yield by FY29 and the second phase to add another 10% by FY32, for a total of 20% uplift.

Morgan Stanley notes higher Ig yield means less plasma and fewer centres to meet demand, lower albumin production and meaningfully higher gross profit/margins.

The broker lifted the long-term CSL Behring gross margin forecast to 58.5% from 57%, driving around 3% long-term EPS upgrades. The broker also increased capex forecasts to include Horizon phase 2 capex of US$1.5bn over FY26-30.

Overweight. Target rises to $256 from $248. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $256.00 Current Price is $181.93 Difference: $74.07
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $244.39, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CXO as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

For Core Lithium, the new target price is 23c. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.04
If CXO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DMP as Buy (1) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises delivered a confident AGM, quantifying cost reductions with Morgans' noting gearing metrics are improving and the business is on track to exceed consensus FY26 net profit forecast.

Same-store sales growth remains negative but the broker considers this "somewhat irrelevant" as the business transitions to a new pricing strategy that should drive higher-margin sales for franchisees.

Morgans also points out the stock is still only trading on a FY26 forecast PE of 16x, which is a -30% discount to Collins Foods ((CKF)). The risk-reward remains attractive and a Buy rating is thus maintained.

Targets raised to $25 from $18.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.46 Difference: $3.54
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.16, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Buy (1) -

EBR Systems' September quarter (3Q25) revenue and gross profit roughly tripled to US$0.51m and US$0.22m, with cash receipts of US$0.47m, Bell Potter notes

Gross margin year-to-date was strong at 45% but is expected to dip in FY26 as inventory from the Solve trial is utilised and replaced with current inventory, before improving from FY27.

The broker highlights early commercial traction has been strong, with implants tripling to 12 across nine states. Average selling price rose 10% to US$53,500, and CMS reimbursement is seen supporting further price uplift.

Utilisation per physician grew 71%, and with only 8 implants needed in 4Q25 to meet forecasts, the broker reckons the consensus FY26 revenue estimate of US$15.7m appears too low. The analyst is estimating US$19.8m.

Buy. Target lifted to $2.43 from $2.25 on a lower risk-free rate in the valuation.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $1.29
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBR as Buy (1) -

EBR Systems delivered third quarter results that were largely in line with expectations, reporting a third quarter net loss of -US$12.2m.

Morgans was pleased case volumes in WiSE, a cardiac resynchronisation therapy system, have increased threefold quarter on quarter, demonstrating its practical value.

The broker considers the phased US roll-out disciplined and makes no changes to 2025-27 forecasts. Buy rating retained. Target is steady at $2.86.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $1.72
If EBR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 151% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Citi is increasingly confident in EVT Ltd's outlook for the remainder of 1H26 and into 2026 following strong commentary from Cineplex and AMC Entertainment.

The broker forecasts A&NZ Entertainment earnings (EBITDA) growth of -1% and 5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, supported by an improving film pipeline.

Upcoming releases such as Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good are expected to boost cinema attendance and advertising spend.

Buy maintained for EVT Ltd. Target unchanged at $17.30.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $14.53 Difference: $2.77
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.46, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Management at Flight Centre Travel has guided to underlying profit before tax (UPBT) of between $305-340m versus consensus of $320m, Citi notes.

The broker believes the group is tracking ahead of this range but acknowledges management’s conservatism amid macro challenges and the US shutdown.

Corporate turnover (TTV) growth of 7% versus 3% consensus and a return to profit in Asia are seen as supporting a stronger 1H26 performance.

The analyst believes the 2H bridge for guidance is achievable, aided by improved Asian profitability and an upcoming loyalty program launch.

Buy. Target price $15.10.

Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $13.13 Difference: $1.97
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GGP as Outperform (1) -

The updated Havieron study is imminent from Greatland Resources and Macquarie now includes a 4.0mtpa base case, with the company assessing 4-4.5mtpa extraction rates, up from 2.8mtpa previously.

The broker believes Havieron will transform the business and the high grades improve the cost base. Outperform rating and $10.50 target price unchanged.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $2.36
If GGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.50, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GL1 as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for Global Lithium Resources rises to 50c from 20c. Rating remains at Hold.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If GL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Hold (3) -

GrainCorp delivered FY25 underlying net profit of $86.7m, in line with guidance, with revenue up 12% y/y and EBITDA up 15% to $308m.

Bell Potter notes strength in Nutrition, Energy, and a favourable crop protection contract offset softer Agribusiness margins. Crop receipts were 13.3mt, at the upper end of 12.5-13.5mt guidance, and exports of 7.0mt met the guidance midpoint.

The GrainsConnect JV was impaired, with -$15m loss booked in FY25, and no future losses will be reflected in the P&L..

FY26 guidance is pending and expected at the AGM in February. The broker expects margin improvement to mirror FY25 and made no change to net profit forecasts.

Hold. Target trimmed to $8.50 from $9.10.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.98 Difference: $0.52
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp delivered a FY25 result that was below Macquarie's forecasts with nutrition and energy the main drag.

The broker notes a sharp share price reaction on what was a "modest" earnings miss, asserting the stock offers value because of its robust dividend yield, cash generation and exposure to east coast grain production.

The result was affected by the ongoing weakness in crush margins and Macquarie suspects ample grain production is likely to persist into FY26, absent significant supply shocks.

Target is reduced to $8.84 from $9.20. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $8.84 Current Price is $7.98 Difference: $0.86
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found the FY25 results from Graincorp "solid", with adjusted EBITDA within upgraded guidance ranges, albeit slightly weaker than expected.

Soft aspects include a poor performance of GrainsConnect Canada and a -$15m cost overrun within the business transformation program.

The broker retains its forecasts for earnings and believes the sell-off in the stock was unfounded.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.80 from $9.95.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $7.98 Difference: $1.82
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

GPT Group investors have approved a two-year extension of the GPT Wholesale Office Fund (GWOF) liquidity event to July 2028, Citi notes.

The broker believes the move provides redemption relief while preserving value, with upfront liquidity for up to 25% of units on issue. It is considered positive for liquidity management as it caps withdrawals at 25% and phases redemptions over two years on a best-efforts basis.

This outcome also supports a longer-term structure for institutional investors, explain the analysts, reducing key sustainability and growth risks.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $6.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.47 Difference: $0.53
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

Citi views Infratil's 1H result positively, citing a strong outlook supported by the CDC data centre business’s plan to double earnings (EBITDA) and upgraded FY26 guidance from Longroad.

The broker highlights solid progress in US renewables and ongoing portfolio simplification through divestments of NZ towers and property interests.

Infratil has now achieved its strategy-day goal of a simplified portfolio spanning cash flow, current growth and future growth pillars, point out the analysts.

Citi observes the stock trades at around a -30% discount to net asset value (NAV) versus a -14% historic average, suggesting valuation upside.

Buy rating and NZ$14.10 target price.

Current Price is $10.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes proportionate earnings (EBITDAF) guidance from Infratil for FY26 is unchanged at NZ$933m. The distribution guidance is NZ20.9c per security.

Compositionally, guidance has been reduced for the NZ diagnostic imaging business, offset by an increase in Longroad Energy. CDC, which is 40% of gross assets, has lowered earnings guidance slightly to $395m.

The broker assesses positive catalysts are dominant and maintains an Outperform rating. Target is increased to NZ$13.63 from $13.26.

Current Price is $10.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFT as Buy (1) -

The -5% fall in the Infratil share price post 1H26 result is viewed as an overreaction by UBS as earnings (EBITDAF) broadly met expectations. Outlook over the medium term for CDC and Long Road also remains positive.

Serrano came online sooner than anticipated, which assisted Long Road as well as the timing of renewable costs.

FY26 proportional earnings (EBITDA) guidance was lowered to NZ$960m-1000m from NZ$1,000-1015m to adjust for asset sales, while FY26 guidance from Long Road was raised 9%.

CDC is expected to double earnings (EBITDAF) to $660m in FY27 from $330m in FY25 due to 140MW of contract wins, the analyst highlights.

Target price lifts to NZ$14 from NZ$13.75 with a roll-forward of the CDC valuation, up 5% to NZ$7.7bn from NZ$7.35bn with an unchanged Buy rating.

Current Price is $10.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for IGO Ltd rises to $7.50 from $5.50. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.72 Difference: $0.78
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Ingenia Communities’ AGM update signalled improving conditions with monthly sales rising to 52, up 30% from July-August levels, Citi notes.

The broker views this as confirmation of a sales recovery consistent with prior expectations. Management maintained FY26 underlying earnings guidance of 32.5-34.0c and earnings (EBIT) growth of 10-15%.

The group believes earnings will be weighted to the second half due to settlement timing, with 166 homes settled year-to-date against 590 forecast by Citi and consensus for FY26.

The analysts expect stronger residential activity to drive further sales momentum.

Buy retained for Ingenia Communities. Target unchanged at $7.10.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: $1.71
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LTR as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for Liontown Resources rises to $1.25 from $0.75. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.94, suggesting downside of -36.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Outperform from Neutral following recent share price weakness.

The broker expects the market to remain tight as demand is "solid" and there are supply disruptions, highlighting the stock remains the largest ex-China rare earths producer and this deserves a premium.

Target is steady at $17.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.26 Difference: $2.74
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Accumulate (2) -

Mineral Resources has formed a joint venture with Posco for the lithium assets, with the latter taking a 30% stake and paying US$765m.

The purchase price values the remaining stakes in Wodgina and Mount Marion at around $4bn, Ord Minnett calculates, implying a long-term spodumene price of around US$1600/t and comfortably above market expectations.

Separately, the broker sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for Mineral Resources rises to $55. Rating remains at Accumulate.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $51.06 Difference: $3.94
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.79, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has visited the Tasmanian tin province, specifically the Renison mine, which is 50% owned by Metals X via its 50% interest in Bluestone. The broker also visited the Heemskirk project, owned by Stella Resources ((SRZ)).

Aside from these two companies, Ord Minnett points out regional exploration has not recommenced since the "tin crash 40 ago". Hence, the ground, in one of the world's great tin provinces, is ripe for modern exploration.

Tin demand is growing, particularly for solder, with electrification requiring circuit boards in numerous devices. As investors are enthusiastic regarding critical minerals, attention is expected to turn to Tassie's tin plays.

The broker has a Buy rating and $1.10 target for Metals X.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.21
If MLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments has emphasised its growth opportunity at the investor briefing, with a combination of organic growth and a target of US$80m in strategic acquisitions.

Ord Minnett envisages the business is well placed to achieve its 2030 target of doubling EBITDA from 2025. The broker increases EBITDA estimate for FY26 by 3%.

Target rises to $3.50 from $2.80. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.45
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments sought to underscore improved transparency around the long-term financial outlook at its Investor Day, according to UBS.

Management highlighted the positives around a decentralised distribution model, the diversity and robust performance fees which are recurring, and the depth of acquisition opportunities globally.

This is expected to assist in doubling earnings (EBITDA) over the next five years to over US$200m by FY30.

UBS lowers its EPS forecast by -7% for FY26, largely resulting from lower returns on commodities but FY27-28 estimates lifted by 3-4%, respectively.

Target price rises to $3.85 from $3.40 previously. A Buy rating is reiterated.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.8
If NGI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica's FY25 underlying EBIT beat Bell Potter's forecast by 2%, thanks to outperformance in Specialty Mining Chemicals and Digital Solutions, which offset a miss in Blasting Solutions.

Blasting benefited from a $15m carbon credit and re-contracting, with EBIT up 15%, but fell short of the broker's estimate by -3%. Chemicals and Digital saw robust demand from gold markets and exploration activity.

The broker expects underlying EBIT to grow 6.3% in FY26, supported by continued contract benefits, strong sodium cyanide demand, and expanding exploration activity. Some drag is expected from weaker coal markets and a major Carseland turnaround.

EPS forecasts have been upgraded, up 4% in FY26 and up 7% in FY27.

Buy. Target rises to $26 from $23.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $23.40 Difference: $2.6
If ORI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

After further analysis of Orica's FY25 results, Citi raises its target to $27.10 from $24.05 due to a higher valuation multiple to reflect an improving outlook across both Blasting Solutions and Beyond Blasting. Buy retained.

Two prior summaries by FNArena of these results follow.

Following the company call post-FY25 result, Citi is more positive on Orica, noting the company's confidence in Blasting Solutions growth through FY26, supported by digital expansion and a stable supply outlook.

Digital Solutions and Specialty Chemicals momentum is set to accelerate, with new Axis products doubling TAM and rising gold, copper, and critical minerals activity boosting demand, the broker highlights.

At first glance, the broker described the result as "solid," with revenue of $8.15bn, earnings (EBIT) of $992m, and EPS growth of 29.5%.

Share price was seen trending up on solid earnings growth momentum, the broker wrote.

The broker highlighted stronger performances from Blasting Solutions and Specialty Mining Chemicals, but Digital Solutions missed the forecast, though margins improved.

A final dividend of 57c was declared, 1% ahead of the consensus forecast, notes Citi.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $23.40 Difference: $3.7
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers Orica has commenced its new financial year with momentum, as the business expects improved earnings across its three segments. Underlying FY25 net profit was ahead of forecasts, driven by lower tax and legal costs.

Specialty mining chemicals and digital solutions are in the forefront. The broker notes the company has indicated the force majeure from CF Industries at Yazoo City in the US should not have a material impact on its customers.

Outperform maintained. Target is raised $25.95 from $22.71.

Target price is $25.95 Current Price is $23.40 Difference: $2.55
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers Orica's FY25 results as largely meeting consensus across key P&L items, and expects little change to consensus EPS forecasts for the next 12 months.

The broker notes FY26 guidance for EBIT growth in all segments is consistent with consensus expectations.

The company upgraded medium-term EBIT growth targets beyond FY26, with Blasting expected at GDP-plus, Digital at mid-teens and Specialty at high-single-digits. These were already largely priced in, the broker highlights.

Share buyback is expanded by up to $100m, with $399m completed so far.

Overweight, with target unchanged at $23. Industry view: In-line

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.40 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Buy (1) -

The FY25 result from Orica was slightly ahead of forecasts, and Morgans assesses it was another year of strong earnings and cash flow growth amid improved margins and returns.

Further growth is targeted in FY26, with the company upgrading medium-term expectations for digital solutions and specialty mining chemicals.

Orica leads the industry with its technology and the broker points out this is an area of high growth and high margin work. Earnings forecasts are largely unchanged.

Morgans raises the target to $28.00 from $24.76. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $23.40 Difference: $4.6
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica has met market expectations in its FY25 results, with Ord Minnett noting solid demand for specialty chemicals and explosives amid tighter cost control.

The company has guided to FY26 EBIT growth across all segments amid strong fundamentals in the gold and copper sectors.

The broker raises estimates for EPS by 2.1% and 2.3% for FY26 and FY27, respectively. Target is lifted to $26 from $23 and a Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $23.40 Difference: $2.6
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica announced a strong FY25 with earnings (EBIT) growth across all divisions. It reflected improved mix/margin, some benefits from recontracting, and higher levels of mining and exploration activity, boosting sodium cyanide, UBS details.

FY25 EPS came in better than consensus by 2% while net operating cash flow was hailed as the "standout," up 18% to $949m and 18% above consensus expectations.

A further $100m was added to the share buyback of $400m recently completed.

UBS lifts its EPS forecasts by 7% for FY26 and FY27 while raising the target to $27 from $25. Buy rated.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.40 Difference: $3.6
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PFP as Buy (1) -

In a 1Q26 trading update at the AGM, Propel Funeral Partners stated 1Q revenue rose 3% y/y, supported by 1% funeral volume growth and 2.7% ARPF (average revenue per funeral) growth.

Bell Potter highlights the volume growth was against a stronger quarter last year, and ARPF gains were tempered by NZD weakness.

Operating EBITDA was $17m at a steady 26.8% margin despite softer organic volumes. Two small NZ acquisitions were announced, including a second headstone manufacturer.

The broker revised forecasts to include $4m annualised revenue from acquisitions, with contributions expected from 3Q26 onward. This resulted in FY26 net profit estimate rising by 0.8% and FY27 by 1%.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.90.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $1.18
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for Pilbara Minerals rises to $3.60 from $1.35. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting downside of -22.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points towards media reports suggesting Rio Tinto has put its Jadar lithium project on care and maintenance. There have been years of local opposition to this project in Serbia.

Ahead of the company's Capital Markets Day on December 4, Morgan Stanley is toying with the idea new CEO Simon Trott might well be inject more discipline into the miner's growth ambitions.

Such discipline will be well-received by investors, the broker suggests.

Today's update was prepared in the UK, where the rating is Overweight alongside a price target of 5,410p.

Target price is $129.50 Current Price is $133.65 Difference: minus $4.15 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.92, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for Rio Tinto rises to $136 from $129. Rating remains at Accumulate.

Target price is $136.00 Current Price is $133.65 Difference: $2.35
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $125.92, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources has a new mine plan at Duketon North, extending production life by around six years to FY31. The plan is underpinned by the Buckingham and Wellington open pits and processing will be via the Moolart Well mill.

Macquarie notes the strategy leverages existing high gold prices and available mill capacity, updating its modelling to align with the company's key metrics. This reflects expectations of stronger earnings from incremental production that will be partly offset by higher costs.

EPS estimates increase around 16% for FY27-30. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $7.20 from $6.80.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting downside of -16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLC as Outperform (1) -

Superloop's earnings guidance from the AGM was largely in line with Macquarie's expectations, while noting the share price was affected by weaker growth in Origin in the first half.

The broker believes the Frontier acquisition and growth in Smart Communities increases potential earnings upside and the outlook remains positive.

Earnings estimates for FY26-28 are lowered slightly because of weaker Origin additions. As a result the target is lowered to $3.55 and $3.65 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.63
If SLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SLC as Buy (1) -

At its AGM, Superloop served up a trading update and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance between $109-117m vs $114m prior consensus and representing growth of 18-27%, UBS points out.

The year-to-date net customer adds came in slower than the analyst anticipated, with the run rate for 4.5 months to November 11 of net monthly adds of 9.4k versus 10.8k in FY25.

Wholesale was the weakest, with only 1k subs in the 1Q26, which is attributed to Origin Energy's ((ORG)) pricing being around 30% higher than the median reseller over the period.

Origin has since become more price-competitive and UBS cautions on reading too much into the update. Still, the analyst trimmed EPS estimates by -4% for FY26 and -11% for FY27.

Target price slips to $3.40 from $3.90. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.48
If SLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has a re-look at Tabcorp Holdings's forecasts after competitor updates indicated a weak start for the Australian wagering market in FY26.

The broker notes turnover trends are flat year-to-date vs mid-single digit declines in FY25. However, unfavourable results are pressuring gross margins, which is consistent with historical yield swings of 80bps for Tabcorp.

FY26 EBITDA is trimmed by -11% and net profit by -44%, assuming 1% wagering turnover (weighted to 2H) and 50bps net yield compression. FY27-28 EBITDA estimates reduced by -6% and net profit by -20%, assuming modest turnover growth and partial yield recovery.

Overweight. Target lowered to $1.02 from $1.15. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.09
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.02, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WC8 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for Wildcat Resources rises to 35c from 30c. Rating remains at Buy.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.08
If WC8 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTM as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiated coverage of Waratah Minerals with a Speculative Buy rating and target price of 95c.

The company is a gold/copper explorer focused on its 100% owned Spur project near Orange, NSW, and adjacent to Newmont Mining's ((NEM)) Cadia operations.

It targets intrusive margin settings favourable for epithermal-porphyry systems, similar to Evolution Mining's ((EVN)) 14Moz Cowal gold deposit. Spur results indicate potential for large-scale mineralisation, supported by strong management and a clear exploration strategy.

The company is well-funded with $34m in cash and five rigs, enabling aggressive drilling through 2026, the broker notes.

The broker forecasts a 2.5-3.0Moz gold resource at 0.8-1.0g/t, forming the basis of its valuation using a 50:50 blend of EV/oz metrics and a risk-adjusted notional mining case.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.43
If WTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

Following Xero's 1H25 results, Morgan Stanley believes the core business remains strong, and despite market scepticism over the Melio acquisition, it sees it as strategically valuable even with the high price.

Revenue missed consensus, but EBITDA was 2% ahead on slightly higher ARPU (average revenue per user). Free cash flow surprised to the upside with a margin of 27% vs 21% year before, lifting the Rule of 40 to 45% vs 44% previously.

The broker notes limited new details were provided on Melio, but the company remains very positive. Revenue guidance for more than doubling by FY28 was re-affirmed and the expectation for a return to the Rule of 40 that year from a decline next two years due to Melio-related losses.

Minor revisions made to earnings forecasts.

Overweight. Target trimmed to $225 from $235. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $225.00 Current Price is $127.36 Difference: $97.64
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $199.82, suggesting upside of 63.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates XRO as Accumulate (2) -

First half results from Xero were largely in line with expectations with Morgans noting the value proposition and has resonated well in Australasia while the main issue is whether this can be replicated internationally.

With greater clarity on costs and following the result, the broker includes Melio numbers for the first time and reduces short-term forecasts.

Accumulate is retained, with Morgans noting it may take some time for management to build investor confidence in the value of Melio but it ultimately should improve the company's product offering and scale in North America.

The target is reduced to $141 from $215.

Target price is $141.00 Current Price is $127.36 Difference: $13.64
If XRO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $199.82, suggesting upside of 63.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Buy (1) -

UBS continues to be positive on the medium-term growth outlook for Xero despite the 1H26 result, which was softer than expected.

The market is cautious on Melio, but the analyst reminds it is in its early days of growth with improving net adds, growth in transaction revenue margins, and total payment volume per user per month. 

The analyst lowers their EPS estimates by -21% for FY26 and -5% for FY27, resulting in the target price moving to $194 from $203.

***

In a first read, UBS describes Xero's 1H26 result as weaker vs market expectations despite EBITDA beating expectations by 1%.

EBITDA-capex, the preferred cash flow proxy, was -6% below consensus and -11% below the broker's estimate, reflecting rising capex from AI investments which outweighed good operating cost control.

Regional revenue was largely in line, with slightly weaker subscriber growth offset by stronger ARPUs. North America revenue was up 1% vs UBS but missed consensus amid wide estimate dispersion.

The company published proforma Melio numbers, which showed 24% y/y revenue growth and 7k net adds, outperforming expectations. Underlying US TPV (total payment value) of US$26bn (18% YoY) is, however, tracking slightly below the broker's estimate.

Target price is $194.00 Current Price is $127.36 Difference: $66.64
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $199.82, suggesting upside of 63.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources