Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates APA as Underperform (5) -

The Council Of Australian Governments has rejected changes to the regulatory coverage test, accepting the Vertigan report to adopt a binding arbitration process as a tool to reduce the power of pipeline operators.

Credit Suisse does not believe the decision should be seen as a significant reprieve for APA. The company has avoided the more immediate regulation catalyst but the broker believes the market will have to accept that binding arbitration will be effective and that there is an explicit goal of reducing the company's market power.

Underperform rating and $7.95 target maintained.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $8.43 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Neutral (3) -

Despite the review on structural reforms presented to the Council Of Australian Governments, Macquarie believes information disclosure or an arbitration framework is no closer.

Such an outcome is needed to frame APA's subsequent re-contracting risk. Hence, the broker anticipates APA will continue to trade at a discount to net present value.

Neutral rating and $9.27 target maintained.

Target price is $9.27 Current Price is $8.43 Difference: $0.84
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APA as Accumulate (2) -

The man tasked by the ACCC of assessing whether stricter regulation of pipeline operators was needed will recommend to COAG a change to gas pipeline coverage tests is not needed.

The broker believes APA's share price has been significantly hindered over past months by regulation uncertainty, hence APA should now re-rate assuming COAG agrees.

The broker assumes COAG will, and retains Accumulate with a $10.30 target.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $8.43 Difference: $1.87
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates APO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company is proposing to merge with its main competitor, oOh!media ((OML)) in an all-scrip transaction.Credit Suisse believes APO shareholders will benefit from stronger accretion in earnings per share and are clear winners from a portfolio diversification point of view.

The broker has no complaint about the logic of the merger, as both companies have leading market positions in key outdoor verticals and are well-managed.

While the sector continues to enjoy tail winds, the broker suspects issues around the proposed merger will dominate sentiment in the near term and, therefore, downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $6.10 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $0.2
If APO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APO as Overweight (1) -

The company has announced an all-scrip merger deal with oOh!media ((OML)). OML shareholders will receive 0.83 APO shares for each OML share. The combined entity will create a larger national footprint and diversification for APO into new outdoor categories.

Morgan Stanley observes it exposes APO to retail renewal risk, and is an incremental negative for the company's Adshel business, as it creates a stronger competitor in contract negotiations.

Overall the broker considers  the move a positive one for APO. Overweight rating and $7.00 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $1.1
If APO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APO as Hold (3) -

The company is proposing to merge with its main competitor, oOh!media ((OML)) in a friendly all-scrip transaction. Morgan suspects the merger could be highly accretive because of the synergies obtainable from in-market mergers.

Pending the outcome of the ACCC ruling, a Hold rating is retained. Target is $5.66.

Target price is $5.66 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If APO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APO as Buy (1) -

The company is proposing to merge with oOh!media ((OML)) in an all-scrip transaction. OML shareholders will receive 0.83 APO shares for each OML share. Synergies are expected to total $20m by year two.

Strategically, the deal provides scale and an ability to tap a greater share of advertiser budgets as digitisation ramps up, UBS notes.

The broker believes upside now hinges on the company's ability to deliver revenue/operating synergies above the $20m suggested, offset by a discount for the probability of the deal completing.

Buy rating and $6 target unchanged.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $0.1
If APO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

The company's update on the clean up in progress at Samarco signals the mine is unlikely to re-start in 2017. Macquarie believes BHP will wait until a longer-term tailings disposal solution has been agreed before committing capital to a re-start.

The broker assumes a re-start in 2018, but no cash flow for BHP. The risk is that BHP will have to contribute funds to get the mine back up and running. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $30 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.80 Difference: $4.2
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.09, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

The company has announced the acquisition of Redfern Travel (UK) and Andrew Jones Travel (Australia) for total consideration of $74.6m.

The acquisitions will be funded by an underwritten renounceable entitlement offer at $15 a share. Macquarie likes the business but believes the strong growth outlook is largely captured in the current share price.

The issue for the broker is one of valuation rather than outlook, execution or quality business. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $16.90 from $16.50.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $16.87 Difference: $0.03
If CTD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTD as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Corporate Travel Management has acquired govt/corporate focused agency Redfern Travel in the UK. Given Redfern's bookings are almost 100% online, significant technology and back office synergy is available, Ord Minnett suggests.

Corporate Travel is offering global scale, significant margin improvement potential, solid organic growth in most businesses and a forecast total shareholder return of around 12%, the broker calculates. Upgrade to Buy. Target rises to $18.54 from $16.38.

Target price is $18.54 Current Price is $16.87 Difference: $1.67
If CTD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates DLX as Sell (5) -

Deutsche Bank considers the trading update to be positive, in line with full year guidance. The company has had a strong start to the year and paint has been the key, although all operating segments have grown revenue.

The company now expects its new paint plant to be EBIT neutral in FY18, compared with expectations for FY19 previously.

The broker retains a Sell rating and $5.20 target.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DLX as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

At its AGM, Dulux highlighted a strong performance in early FY17 and reiterated guidance of FY17 profit being higher than FY16. While Ord Minnett does not dispute guidance, the broker believes growth will be more subdued in FY17 as the macro tailwind of the housing boom begins to fade.

That said, Ords does believe Dulux can continue to make market share gains in paints and coatings thanks to its alignment with Bunnings ((WES)) and the expectation Bunnings will make its own market share gains. Given Dulux' share price is now trading near to Ords' target price of $5.90, the broker upgrades to Hold from Lighten.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAN as Add (1) -

Positive sales momentum continues for the company and the next catalyst is envisaged as the release of ultrasound decontamination guidelines in England.

Morgans believes, having visited the operations recently,  that current production of around 1000 units per quarter could easily be significantly increased if required.

The broker is using the current volatility to add to positions. Add recommendation retained.Target is $3.66.

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.53
If NAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OML as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company is proposing to merge with its main competitor, APN Outdoor ((APO)) in an all-scrip transaction. Credit Suisse has no complaint about the logic of the merger, as both companies have leading market positions in key outdoor verticals and are well managed.

While the sector continues to enjoy tail winds, the broker suspects issues around the proposed merger will dominate sentiment in the near term and, therefore, downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Credit Suisse believes the rally in the share price fully captures the accretion to OML shareholders, without factoring in the risks around the deal completing. Target falls to $5.15 from $6.00.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.37
If OML meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as No Rating (-1) -

The company has announced plans to merge with APN Outdoor ((APO)) via a scheme of arrangement. Shareholders are expected  to receive 0.83 APO shares per each OML share. APO shareholders are forecast to retain 55% of the merged entity.

The company has guided to pre-tax cost synergies of at least $20m per annum, realised within two years of the completion of the transaction. OML has also upgraded 2016 EBITDA guidance to $72-74m from $68-72m.

Macquarie is restricted on a target and rating at present.

Current Price is $4.78. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OML as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

oOh!media and peer APN Outdoor ((APO)) plan to merge via a nil-premium scrip swap that would see oOh! shareholders receive 0.83 APN shares for one. Ord Minnett sees the deal as earnings accretive for both parties given the significant cost savings available. 

Now it's over to the ACCC, noting the combined entity would dominate the out-of-home ad market. Ords nevertheless suggests the ACCC will approve on the basis of the wider media market, with o-o-h merely one advertising option for clients among many.

On the rally the news sparked in the share price, the broker downgrades to Accumulate from Buy. Target unchanged at $5.25.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.47
If OML meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

The company has surprised friend and foe with raising $1.5bn via a $1.04bn fully underwritten Institutional placement and a $500m share purchase plan. Citi analysts note management had gone the extra mile to ensure investors there would be no need for extra capital raising.

Citi analysts report the company's CEO, during a conference call with analysts, failed to properly explain why this unexpected raising. It does open up a lot of questions about what can possibly go wrong with GLNG, credit ratings, cost-out targets etc.

The analysts conclude the outlook might not be as great as the market had been led to believe. They begrudgingly retain a Buy rating, noting Santos shares are cheaper priced than their peers. Target tumbles to $5.02 from $5.25. Estimates have been cut.

Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $0.61
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates STO as Underperform (5) -

The timing of the company's equity raising announcement surprises Credit Suisse, despite believing at the investor briefing that the balance sheet was still stretched.

The equity raising of $1.54bn is considered to be the correct decision to address a balance sheet that remains heavily geared. The broker is puzzled about what may come next but assumes the complete amount is used to retire debt.

Underperform and $3.10 target retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: minus $1.31 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Hold (3) -

Morgans has reviewed assumptions following the investor briefing. The broker expects FY17/18 performance will suffer as a result of assets being starved of capital during FY14-16, with lower production and higher capital expenditure the result.

A gradual turnaround appears likely, but management was unable to convince the broker that the stock is a more attractive investment proposal compared with Oil Search ((OSH)) or Woodside ((WPL)).

Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $4.68 from $4.55.

Target price is $4.68 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $0.27
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

Following its investor briefing, the company has moved to raise equity to reduce its debt and pursue growth opportunities. The first stage involves a fully underwritten institutional share placement to raise $1.04bn.

In total, the company will raise up to $1.54bn. Gearing is expected to decline to 32% from 39% after the placement and as low as 29% after the following share purchase plan.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $4.90 target.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $0.49
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TOX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the acquisition of Daniels diversifies the company's earnings away from resources and increases the quality.

Nevertheless, guidance for the organic business is now towards the lower end of its original range of 5-10% growth, driven by continued pressure on west coast services to the oil & gas sector.

This is expected to weigh on the near term upside for the stock. Equal-weight rating, $2.65 target and In-Line sector view retained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.25
If TOX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TRY as Initiating coverage with Outperform rating (1) -

The company has a long history of gold and silver production from developments in Australia and South America. The latest development is the Karouni mine in Guyana.

The company has a substantial exploration portfolio and Macquarie believes the potential for new discoveries is high.The broker initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $0.45 target.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.205
If TRY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TTS as Neutral (3) -

The analysts note the company has received an unsolicited, non-binding and conditional proposal from the ‘Pacific Consortium’. The suitor consists of First State Super, Morgan Stanley, KKR and Macquarie Group ((MQG)) and is proposing to acquire 100% of Tatts for a combination of cash and scrip, valuing the shares at $4.40-5.00/share.

In comparison, Citi recalls the offer agreed with Tabcorp ((TAH)) valued the shares at $4.34/share at the time of announcement. While the new offer does not require ACCC approval, Citi thinks Tabcorp does not have to lie down and declare defeat. So watch this space.

Neutral. Target $4.35.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If TTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TTS as Neutral (3) -

The Pacific consortium bid implies $3.95 per Tatts share, lower than the implied scrip plus cash bid from Tabcorp ((TAH)) at $4.21, on Credit Suisse's modelling.

While the new proposal suggests shareholders could crystallise $4.40-5.00 per share, the broker takes issue with a number of the consortium's assumptions.The share price rally makes the stock fully valued and Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating. Target is $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.01
If TTS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates TTS as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank considers the financial consortium's proposal to acquire Tatts for $4.40-5.00 in cash and scrip to be inferior to the merger proposal from Tabcorp ((TAH)).

The broker does not believe the proposal ascribes a sufficient premium for the lotteries business. With two proposals in train, the broker notes there is clear interest in the company's businesses and the possibility of a competing bid or higher offer cannot be ruled out.

Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $4.67 target.

Target price is $4.67 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.18
If TTS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TTS as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The company has received a proposal from Pacific Consortium at  $3.40 cash and one share in "Wagering & Gaming Co". The board has not yet formed a view on the proposal.

With the stock trading marginally below valuation and, given Morgans considers the likelihood of a higher bid emerging as low, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. Target is raised to $4.53 from $4.47.

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.04
If TTS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TTS as No Rating (-1) -

The Pacific Consortium has made a counter proposal to acquire Tatts at $4.40-5.00. The cash component of the consideration is $3.40.

UBS is restricted on providing a rating and a target, given its involvement in the transaction with Tabcorp ((TAH)).

Current Price is $4.49. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources