Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

The analyst incorporates commodity and forex assumptions for the company as well as the updated final investment decision for Gossan Valley and the associated equity raise.

Target price falls to 29c from 40c. Equal-weight retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.035
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.30, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Bellevue Gold with a Buy rating and $1.95 target price.

The broker details the expansion of the company's project to around 250ktpa in FY28 from 183ktpa in the 2021 feasibility study. Current reserves are 9.3mt at 5g/t gold with 1.5oz, and commercial production was announced in 4Q 2024.

Management's expansion plan includes increasing the processing plant to 1.6mtpa in FY27 from 1mtpa.

Bell Potter believes management has balanced the time and cost of the resource with commercialisation timelines, focusing on "unlocking more value" from the project.

Buy rated. Target $1.95.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.645
If BGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

BHP Group ((BHP)) is the preferred diversified miner versus Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide," with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold-and-wait.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating with a target price of $48.95 from $46.85. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $48.95 Current Price is $41.17 Difference: $7.78
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.97, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

The broker notes supply has disappointed for uranium, and a pickup in contracting activity is expected in 2025. Morgan Stanley forecasts a U3O8 spot price of US$90/lb by 2Q 2025.

Target price slips to $2.75 from $3. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.14
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 60.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Following investor briefings, Morgan Stanley came away "incrementally more positive" on the outlook for Beach Energy, Santos ((STO)), and Woodside Energy Group ((WDS)).

The broker marks-to-market changes for the commodity price outlook, with some tightness expected in the LNG market and a subdued oil price outlook.

Beach Energy's target price rises to $1.30 from $1.26. Underweight. Sector call: In-Line.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the ComCom release of its final maximum allowable revenue determination for Chorus' second regulatory period, spanning 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2028.

The final decision was as expected, the broker highlights, with the range set at NZ$957m-NZ$1,079m, meeting the anticipated regulated fibre revenues over the period.

Macquarie notes the revenue opportunities will underpin management's dividend policy to pay NZ57.5c per share in FY25 and increase annually by at least the CPI.

Outperform. The broker's target rises to NZ$9.83 from NZ$9.38 as the analyst adopts a dividend discount valuation methodology.

Current Price is $8.15. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

Updated commodity and forex assumptions are incorporated into the broker's EPS forecasts.

Target rises to $3.90 from $3.80. Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.01
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

The broker prefers Evolution Mining for the copper exposure and high free cash flow generation.

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide," with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold-and-wait.

Equal-weight with a higher target price of $4.95 from $4.55. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.02, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Bell Potter marks-to-market iron ore prices in the December quarter for Fortescue, resulting in a lift in the FY25 EPS estimate by 8% and no change to the FY26 EPS forecast.

The forecasts are adjusted for a lower Australian dollar and iron ore trading at the upper end of the broker's forecast due to China's recent stimulus measures.

The target price rises to $17.17 from $17.04. There is no change to the Sell rating, as the short-term tailwinds are expected to diminish with medium-term challenges of lower production, higher input costs, and reduced prices.

Target price is $17.17 Current Price is $19.48 Difference: minus $2.31 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.61, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and the China stimulus.

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide" with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold and wait.

No change to Equal-weight rating and $18.55 target price up from $16.85. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $18.55 Current Price is $19.48 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.61, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Citi believes a fundamental driver of higher earnings growth and return on equity for GPT Group will come from an increased contribution from funds management via "co-investment" in growth sectors.

The strategy will take time to evolve but will be important for earnings upgrades in the future.

Management recently announced the acquisition of a 50% interest in two premium Perth retail assets from Perron, totaling 119,000sqm, at a cost of -$492m, the broker observes.

Target $4.90 and Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.42
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Underweight (5) -

Bain Capital has made a preliminary, non-binding indicative $4 cash offer for Insignia Financial, implying an 11x one-year forward price-to-earnings valuation or a 21% premium to the share price over the last few weeks.

Morgan Stanley believes the bid will require approval from APRA, given the company's notable role in the Australian superannuation system.

The broker observes the offer places the valuation around the same trading valuation multiple as AMP ((AMP)), which offers a more robust balance sheet, better cash flows, and a cost-out history.

The Underweight rating and $2.68 target price remain unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.68 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting downside of -14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and the China stimulus.

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide" with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold and wait.

The broker's target is $4.50 down from $5. Underweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.77, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

The broker incorporates revised forecasts for commodity prices and forex with the recent cost and government funding updates for Eneabba update.

Morgan Stanley lifts EPS forecasts for Iluka Resources by 7% in 2024 and 47% in 2025.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target price slips to $5.80 from $6.70. The industry view remains Attractive.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.67
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Following investor briefings, Morgan Stanley came away "incrementally more positive" on the outlook for Beach Energy ((BPT)), Santos ((STO)), and Woodside Energy Group ((WDS)).

The broker marks-to-market changes for the commodity price outlook, with some tightness expected in the LNG market and a subdued oil price outlook.

Morgan Stanley lowers Karoon Energy's EPS estimates by -4% in 2024 and -42% in 2025 and awaits the company's strategy update on February 5.

For Karoon Energy, the price target falls to $1.88 from $2.02. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.47
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 59.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and the China stimulus.

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide" with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold and wait.

Target price lifts to $5.60 from $5.45. Underweight rating unchanged. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

BHP Group ((BHP)) is the preferred diversified miner versus Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide," with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed, with Mineral Resources as the preferred exposure. Gold is a hold-and-wait.

The target price for Mineral Resources slips to $52.50 from $58. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $52.50 Current Price is $35.80 Difference: $16.7
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.07, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

The broker highlights "payabilities" could revert to the historical average for Nickel Industries which would be a significant positive for the company.

The target price slips to $1.05 from $1.10 with an Overweight rating and an Industry View of "Attractive."

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.155
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting upside of 35.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades Northern Star Resources to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target price retained at $15.60.

The broker believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide" with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold and wait.

The broker prefers Evolution Mining ((EVN)). Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $16.44 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Following investor briefings, Morgan Stanley came away "incrementally more positive" on the outlook for Beach Energy ((BPT)), Santos ((STO)), and Woodside Energy Group ((WDS)).

The broker marks-to-market changes for the commodity price outlook, with some tightness expected in the LNG market and a subdued oil price outlook.

Morgan Stanley's target price for Origin Energy is below consensus by -15% at $8.86. Underweight. Sector call: In-Line.

Target price is $8.86 Current Price is $10.41 Difference: minus $1.55 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.59, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

The broker notes supply has disappointed for uranium, and a pickup in contracting activity is expected in 2025. Morgan Stanley forecasts a U3O8 spot price of US$90/lb by 2Q 2025.

Overweight. Target slips to $10.50 from $12.30. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: $2.55
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 50.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades Pilbara Minerals to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target price is lowered to $2.55 from $3.00 and the broker believes the share prices have fallen enough for "patient" investors to "re-enter" in the lithium sector.

Morgan Stanley believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide," with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed.. Gold is a hold-and-wait.

Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.29
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes the approval of the 60ktpa Rincon expansion project, with commissioning anticipated in 2028 for Rio Tinto.

Total production capacity is expected to rise to 60ktpa lithium concentrate at a -US$2.5bn capital cost, as part of the US medium-term capex plans of -US$10bn–US$11bn, including the -US$6.7bn Arcadium Lithium ((LTM)) acquisition.

First lithium concentrate is expected by 2028, with a three-year ramp-up to 2031, using the direct lithium extraction technique.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates lower by -1% to -2% from 2027 onwards. Target price slips to $120 from $121. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $120.72 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $129.00, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

BHP Group ((BHP)) is the preferred diversified miner versus Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide," with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold-and-wait.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $136 target up from $135. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $136.00 Current Price is $120.72 Difference: $15.28
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.00, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide," with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold-and-wait.

The target for Regis Resources rises to $2.65 from $2.45, and the rating is retained at Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades South32 to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target price lifts to $3.90 from $3.30.

The broker believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide," with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. The broker likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed, with Mineral Resources as the preferred exposure. Gold is a hold-and-wait.

Overweight. Target $3.90. Industry View: Attractive. Morgan Stanley lifts EPS forecasts by 8% in FY25 and FY26.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.5
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades Sandfire Resources to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target price lifts to $9 from $8 as the near-term stock price ignores the short mine life of six to seven years.

The broker believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

Iron ore is viewed as a "good place to hide," with steel inventories lower than 2019 levels. Morgan Stanley likes copper and believes lithium has bottomed. Gold is a hold-and-wait.

Industry view is Attractive. 

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.96 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.84, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Following investor briefings, Morgan Stanley came away "incrementally more positive" on the outlook for Beach Energy ((BPT)), Santos, and Woodside Energy Group ((WDS)).

The broker marks-to-market changes for the commodity price outlook, with some tightness expected in the LNG market and a subdued oil price outlook.

Santos' target price slips to $7.65 from $7.99. and retains an Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line. No change in EPS forecasts.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: $1.16
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.98, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes many of the resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and the China stimulus.

The target price falls to 20c to 35c, with an Equal-weight rating and an Industry View of "Attractive."

Morgan Stanley adjusts earnings for the credit and balance sheet risk given Syrah Resources has defaulted on its US government loan due to the force majeure at Balama.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.02
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 131.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TRJ as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett transfers coverage of Trajan Group and raises the target price to $1.50 from $1.40.

The analyst highlights the 1Q25 trading update revealed an improving growth outlook compared to the previous year, although there was ongoing variable demand across markets.

Bio-pharma is expected to improve over 2025, with management confirming FY25 earnings guidance of $17m-$19m. The broker also believes the pharmaceutical sector will act as a tailwind for 2025 and beyond.

Ord Minnett lifts EPS estimates by 2% in FY25 and by 7% out to FY27.

The Buy rating is unchanged. Target $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.49
If TRJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Buy rating and $37 price target retained as UBS reviews Westpac post AGM on Friday. The broker highlights how share buybacks support the sustainability of the dividend, having added no less than 22c to shareholder dividends since 2021.

Westpac's balance sheet leverage remains below that of National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), points out the broker, and further capital releases are forecast.

UBS's forecasts are currently some 4% ahead of consensus. The broker notes the shares are seemingly expensive, trading more than two standard deviations above the historical average, but compared to peers there's a larger-than-usual -20% relative discount.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $32.17 Difference: $4.83
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.09, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Equal-weight (3) -

Following investor briefings, Morgan Stanley came away "incrementally more positive" on the outlook for Beach Energy ((BPT)), Santos ((STO)), and Woodside Energy Group.

The broker marks-to-market changes for the commodity price outlook, with some tightness expected in the LNG market and a subdued oil price outlook.

Target price $27. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line. Morgan Stanley highlights its forecasts are below consensus EPS and DPS estimates by -16% in 2025 for Woodside Energy.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.89 Difference: $3.11
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.47, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley continues to like Whitehaven Coal. The broker notes the met coal price has been resilient despite weak demand, with some lagged impacts from Mongolian supply and the Indian elections.

The broker believes many resource stocks are skewed to the upside from a risk/reward basis as the market awaits more clarity on US tariffs and China stimulus.

Overweight rating. Target price rises to $8.95 from $8.60. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: $2.36
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources