Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates AAR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Astral Resources has received assays from 20 holes of the 99-hole in-fill RC program at the Theia Deposit, confirming strong mineralisation continuity, highlights Shaw and Partners.

Intercepts including 27m at 3.23g/t gold and 18m at 6.67g/t gold help de-risk initial production, notes the broker, and align with the Mineral Resource Estimate model.

The Theia Deposit underpins most planned production, highlight the analysts, with preliminary feasibility study (PFS) assumptions supporting a long mine life and 94kozpa output.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 45c.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.255
If AAR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ABB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Aussie Broadband to Neutral from Outperform in the wake of Telstra's ((TLS)) revamping of its NBN plans. The latter is offering internet-only plans that are broadly equivalent in price to Optus, albeit at a higher price point than Aussie Broadband.

Macquarie does not consider this a structural headwind, although price as a lever for subscriber growth will get harder.

The broker reduces the target for Aussie Broadband to $5.10 from $6.35 to reflect downward revisions in FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates of -3% and -7%, respectively. This reflects reduced growth in the residential business because of the increased competitiveness of Telstra's pricing.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If ABB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Updated for Amplitude Energy’s 11-for-1 share consolidation which starts on November 20th.

Target price is $3.08 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $2.83
If AEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1132% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 1536.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Updated for Amplitude Energy’s 11-for-1 share consolidation which starts on November 20th.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $5.25
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 1536.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes ASX energy stocks have outperformed commodities in 2025, but momentum is fading, with softer Brent expectations plus rising domestic gas policy risk partly priced in.

The broker reckons the sector remains growth-heavy with weaker free cash flow metrics than global majors, leading to a cautious short-term sector stance.

No change to forecasts for Amplitude Energy. Target rises to $3.45 from $0.31, following 11-for-1 share consolidation.

Buy maintained.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $3.2
If AEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1280% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 1536.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AL3 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

AML3D has secured a US$1.7m Arcemy X sale to US-base FasTech, expanding its installed base to nine units in the US, highlights Shaw and Partners. The deal is seen as enhancing revenue visibility ahead of installation in 3Q FY26.

The broker highlights the MOU signed between ASC (Australia’s submarine builder and sustainment group) and Austal ((ASB)) as further validation of AML3D’s naval positioning across AUKUS-aligned programs.

The analyst notes the company is trading at circa 4x FY26 sales versus higher-multiple peers while operating at materially stronger margins.

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating and target of 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.225
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

ALS Ltd’s 1H FY26 result delivered a 2% underlying earnings (EBIT) beat, which Bell Potter attributes to stronger Commodities and Life Sciences revenue alongside margin gains at Nuvisan (Pharmaceutical R&D services market).

The broker notes robust Geochem sample growth, offset by weaker legacy pricing, while Life Sciences exceeded its margin targets as cost-out progressed.

The broker's upgraded FY26 organic revenue growth of 6-8% reflects improving exploration activity, explain the analysts, with Commodities now expected to grow 12-14%.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating, with target of $25.00, up from $23.50.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.87 Difference: $4.13
If ALQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.26, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

After a full analysis of ALS Ltd's 1H26 results, Citi believes there's upside risk to Commodities revenue even after the guidance upgrade, with exploration recovery not fully priced in. Additionally, bias for margins is to the upside.

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 11% and FY27 by 14.1%. Target rises to $23.80 from $19.45, with rating retained at Buy.

Previous commentary follows:

On first take, Citi points to a beat for ALS Ltd's 1H26 results versus expectations, with a further upgrade in revenue guidance for the group due to the strength in Commodities. Underlying revenue came in 6% above both the analyst's and consensus forecasts.

Life Sciences underlying earnings (EBIT) also came in above expectations by 2-4% which is viewed positively in the context of margin pressure across metallurgy and industrial materials.

On the negative side, the DPS came in lower than anticipated at 19.4c, below expectations by -6% and is 30% franked.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $20.87 Difference: $2.93
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.26, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

ALS Ltd posted first half net profit that was slightly ahead of expectations. Macquarie asserts investors will be encouraged by the leverage to the exploration cycle and strong gold price.

The stock has had a strong run and its multiples are not cheap but the broker believes it should be underpinned by the earnings growth profile which is above both the market and global peers.

The recovery in Commodity earnings should improve, underpinned by pricing and an increase in junior activity.

Outperform. Target is raised to $22.85 from $19.26.

Target price is $22.85 Current Price is $20.87 Difference: $1.98
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.26, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Morgans assesses ALS Ltd's 1H26 result as solid, with EBIT and net profit 3-4% ahead of its forecasts.

The broker expects the exploration cycle to accelerate, given the significant capital raised recently, supporting upgrades in Commodities. Excess cash from Commodities should fund acquisitions, the broker reckons, resulting in capital-driven lifts for Life Sciences.

Despite a -$7m net profit drag in FY26 from restructuring and other above-the-line costs, the broker lifted net profit forecasts by 2-3% through the forecast period.

Target rises to $25.30 from $24.60. Buy maintained.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $20.87 Difference: $4.43
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.26, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Accumulate (2) -

ALS Ltd reported better than expected 1H26 results, which were somewhat assisted by favourable forex movements according to Ord Minnett.

Revenue growth for Life Sciences and laboratory testing was robust in its Commodities segment as better geochemistry volumes flowed through with improved pricing.

Management attributed the volume growth to large, rather than small, resource companies.

EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 0.7% and FY27 is lowered by -1%. A change in valuation methodology results in an upgrade to target price of $22.60 from $20.95.

No change to Accumulate rating.

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $20.87 Difference: $1.73
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.26, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

On further inpsection, the analyst raises their EPS forecasts by 2% for FY26 and 1% for FY27. No change to Buy rating and $26.00 target.

***

A recovery in the exploration cycle has assisted ALS Ltd in better than expected 1H26 results with an upgrade in guidance, UBS explains on first take.

Earnings (EBIT) from commodities rose 14% y/y versus the broker's forecast at 7% growth and consensus at 6% growth, with a broadly inline margin of 28.1% against the previous year of 28.2%.

Minerals had low double-digit growth y/y compared to the UBS estimate at 8%. Life Sciences earnings (EBIT) rose 19%, a robust beat on the analyst's forecast of 8% and consensus of 6% growth.

The broker views the result as robust with a rise in organic revenue growth guidance to 13% from 6% at the midpoint, as well as incremental margin expansion of 100-125bps compared to the forecast of 70bps. Against a challenging backdrop, Life Sciences beat.

Buy rated. Target $26.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $20.87 Difference: $5.13
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.26, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

At the AGM, BlueScope Steel signalled in its trading update first half EBIT will be at the prior guidance of $550-620m. Macquarie assesses most businesses are tracking in line with the company's prior expectations.

Ahead of the start of the electric arc furnace in New Zealand, results appear slightly weaker than previously expected. In Australia, demand is improving and outcomes appear marginally ahead of what the broker previously discounted.

Macquarie assesses management is executing well and the business is positioned favourably.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $25.50 from $25.35.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $22.10 Difference: $3.4
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.20, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Catapult Sports’ 1H FY26 result (March year-end) exceeded Bell Potter's expectations with management earnings (EBITDA) of US$9.7m driven by a stronger margin and offset by higher acquisition-related costs.

The broker sees cash of US$11.3m and no debt support as supporting operational flexibility. FY26-28 earnings forecasts trimmed by -2%, -1% and -1%, respectively,  due to softer revenue and margin assumptions.

The broker made more material cuts to statutory earnings forecasts following increased share-based payments and higher D&A from recent acquisitions.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating. Target trimmed to $6.50 from $7.50 largely due to a lower assumed valuation multiple given the recent de-rating of the technology sector.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $1.68
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 59.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAT as Overweight (1) -

Catapult Sports posted a first half result that underpins Morgan Stanley's "thesis", with operating metrics improving and generating profitability and free cash flow.

The broker believes IMPECT, which settled on October 31, is strategically important, potentially increasing the velocity of multi-vertical pro-team growth.

Overweight retained. Target is reduced to $6.50 from $7.90, to incorporate a higher share count post the equity raising. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $1.68
If CAT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 59.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBR as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes feedback from the recent Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS) conference suggests physician confidence in conduction system pacing (CSP) for heart failure is waning after the PhysioSync-HF trial.

This fortifies Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) as the preferred therapy. Importantly, the broker highlights momentum behind leadless pacing is growing, with EBR Systems' WiSE viewed as the key enabler for fully leadless CRT and LV-side leadless CSP.

Early US commercial users appear increasingly focused on de novo cases, potentially accelerating market expansion beyond previously untreatable CRT patients. Overall, the broker reckons WiSE’s competitive position continues to strengthen.

Buy rating and unchanged $2.86 target price.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $1.79
If EBR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FFM as Outperform (1) -

FireFly Metals has updated on its Green Bay resource, with total tonnage up by 35% and contained copper increasing 43%. Total resources for Green Bay are estimated at 79.7mt at 1.77% copper, with 60% of contained copper in the higher confidence measure.

Macquarie lifts forecasts for mining inventory by 81%. The broker believes the project is a compelling copper development opportunity and could become globally significant, attracting corporate appeal.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $2.30 from $1.70.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.6
If FFM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Australian Industrial & Logistics supply remains tight while demand is rising, making the sub-sector attractive within real estate.

The broker sees the best opportunities in high-quality, well-located warehouses with stronger tenant demand and resilient rental growth.

Goodman Group remains the broker's top pick due to its global exposure with added data centre growth. Stockland is also a preferred exposure, though residential performance is important for the stock.

Buy rating for Goodman Group. Target unchanged at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $28.83 Difference: $11.17
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.28, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

GPT Group and GWSCF potentially hold pre-emptive rights on Sunshine Plaza and Macarthur Square, which will be sold in the wind up of APPF Retail.  Macquarie suggests they may exercise these rights to gain wider management of these co-owned assets.

The broker estimates, based on an investment management fee of 25-40 basis points, the transaction could be accretive by 0.2-0.4% to FY26.

Outperform. Target edges down to $6.23 from $6.27.

Target price is $6.23 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: $0.77
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLI as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie observes Helia Group's supportive conditions are driving reserve releases so a reduction in ongoing negative claims is unlikely. The broker forecasts liability for incurred claims for 2025 will close at $200m.

Management has signalled an intention to reduce its operating cost base and while the broker assesses there are further areas to optimise costs the opportunities will be insufficient to offset long-term revenue headwinds.

Underperform maintained, as Macquarie suggests investors are overpaying for the potential of capital returns and have priced in favourable conditions indefinitely. Target is reduced to $3.95 from $4.10.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $5.88 Difference: minus $1.93 (current price is over target).
If HLI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Neutral (3) -

At its recent AGM, Ingenia Communities announced a development update which pointed to a 2H26 earnings skew.

UBS notes 166 settled homes with 38 JV and 128 non-JV versus expectations for 266 in 1H26. Management did not provide a specific FY26 settlement target, but the five-year CAGR target of 10-15% remains.

The analyst adjusts settlement forecasts with 1H at 221 and 2H at 377 (37%/63% split) within an unchanged FY26 settlement estimate of 598. The FY26 EPS forecast is unchanged with the target also unchanged.

Neutral. Target $6.28.

Target price is $6.28 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: $1.16
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Citi believes James Hardie Industries offers a low-risk exposure to a potential housing recovery as expectations look achievable through FY27, even without a major macro uplift. 

Recent policy signals prioritising housing further tilt the risk/reward to the positive side, in the broker's view. Minor changes to EBITDA forecasts but lower D&A/tax lead to 3-6% increases to net profit forecasts.

Buy. Target rises to $37.20 from $36.50.

Citi's initial reaction to the company's 2Q26 trading update follows:

On first take, Citi notes 2Q26 earnings (EBITDA) came at the upper end of the pre-guided range, resulting from a mid-single digit fall in fibre cement exterior volumes. This compared with previous expectations of a high mid-single to low double-digit decline.

The mid-single digit sell-through in decking was better than the low-single digit former guidance. Management has upgraded guidance for FY26, which is 4-5% higher at the midpoint versus consensus.

The analyst estimates FY26 EPS of US$1.03, 9 -10% above the previous estimate.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $27.94 Difference: $9.26
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.65, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes consumer uncertainty remains a key market driver, making macro and policy shifts critical. Amid this backdrop, the broker reckons James Hardie Industries is well placed to benefit from any volume lift having stabilised its operations.

Changes in governance structures are also positive, in the broker's opinion.

In its 2Q26 results, the company upgraded its outlook, helped by a relatively rapid de-stocking. Macquarie raises FY26 and FY27 estimates for EPS by 10% and 5%, respectively.

Target lifts to $41.70 from $40.60. Outperform. 

Target price is $41.70 Current Price is $27.94 Difference: $13.76
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.65, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes second-quarter results from James Hardie Industries were in line with previous guidance. Earnings appear to have improved amid a stabilising US housing backdrop.

The Azek synergy target of US$350m, while facing some investor scepticism, appears ahead of plan, and the company now expects to exit FY26 with annualised cost synergies of US$60m or more. AZEK appears to be gaining share as well.

The broker lifted FY26 EBITDA forecast by 7% and FY27 by 5%, leading to a 15% increase in FY26 EPS estimate and a 2% lift to FY27.

Overweight rating maintained with an unchanged target of $40. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $27.94 Difference: $12.06
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.65, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Morgans notes ASX energy stocks have outperformed commodities in 2025, but momentum is fading, with softer Brent expectations plus rising domestic gas policy risk partly priced in.

The broker reckons the sector remains growth-heavy with weaker free cash flow metrics than global majors, leading to a cautious short-term sector stance.

In the case of Karoon Energy, the broker lifted year-end Bauna production run-rates, assumed earlier Neon capex and start-up timing, and higher opex from a longer FPSO handover.

FY25 underlying net profit forecast trimmed by -5% and FY26 by -8%. Target $1.80, and rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.15
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LGI as Accumulate (2) -

LGI raised $56m to strengthen its balance sheet, expand its development pipeline of over 80MW, and accelerate delivery, including 28MW of new high-return BESS projects. The pipeline will lift managed capacity roughly fourfold from FY25 levels, Morgans notes.

The company re-iterated FY26 guidance for 25-30% growth. The broker upgraded FY27-28 net profit forecasts by 17% and 24%, respectively, after accounting for the larger development pipeline.

The broker remains confident in execution, with a strong EPS growth forecast at a compounded annual growth rate of 26%.

Accumulate. Target rises to $4.84 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.57
If LGI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses there are a few things to consider with the closure of the redemption window in Lendlease Group's APPF-R fund, noting an overwhelming majority of investors requested liquidity. The company will now run a competitive process for its assets.

While losing funds management revenue of around $8m per year once the fund is wound up, the company will also have a capital return of around $200m for its stake. There is potential upside if assets are sold at above book value.

Equal-weight. Target is steady at $6.58. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.58 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: $1.36
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Post a visit to Lynas Rare Earths' Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) facility in Malaysia, UBS returned with a more upbeat view on the company's position in the country and the value chain.

The broker is also appreciative of the long-standing domestic workforce and has developed an understanding of a very complex field.

The analyst is also more positive on the Malaysian heavy rare earths expansion, underpinned by a scarcity of supply globally. The elongated construction time has pushed out the earnings impacts.

UBS estimates an incremental revenue impact of around $700m, or circa 27% of additional revenue in FY27. EPS forecasts lifted by 10% for FY27 and 37% for FY28.

The stock is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a lift in target price to $17.80 from $15.10.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $14.62 Difference: $3.18
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.06, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes total ore reserves for Renison announced by Metals X were 7.5Mt at 1.37% for 102.7kt of tin equating to a nine years supply but with a life of mine still over 10 years.

The update lowers ore reserves by -8.5% from March 2024 to the latest in March 2025, resulting from mine depletion, while the life of mine plan includes inferred resources of 22.2kt tin.

Target set at $1.05 with a Buy rating. No change to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.315
If MLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MSV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Mitchell Services' average operating rigs fell to 62 in 1Q26 from 65 the quarter before, but higher productivity led to doubling EBITDA and margins expansion.

Productivity improved to 85% from 73% over four quarters, while margins improved to 22% from 15%. The improvement reflects a smaller operating fleet generating more revenue per rig.

The broker highlights the company's balance sheet has strengthened sharply, with net debt falling -93% to $0.9m. Expectations are for stronger earnings in FY26, higher margins, solid free cash flow and a potential dividend restart.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 45c.

Coverage transferred to Chris Creech.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.14
If MSV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MYG as Buy (1) -

Mayfield Group has completed a $30.5m institutional placement at $1.90 per share. Proceeds from both the placement and further $3.0m share purchase plan will fund acquisitions and capacity upgrades, explains Bell Potter.

The broker highlights several targets in negotiation, with commercial terms for a WA business expected to be finalised in 4Q FY26 and considered highly earnings accretive.

The analysts' scenario analysis shows potential EPS accretion of up to 14% in FY26 and 30% in FY27 if funds are deployed at valuations below 3.0x EV/earnings.

Bell Potter makes EPS downgrades of -10% and -11%, respectively, for FY26-27 after modelling the equity raise and excluding acquisition contributions.

The broker retains a Buy rating and increases its target to $2.30 from $2.00 due to a lower assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to reflect upcoming accretion via the acquisition pipeline.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.27
If MYG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Citi updated its model for Northern Star Resources, lifting Hemi development capex by $480m, resulting in expectations for a drawdown of $450m from the revolving credit facility in FY27-28.

The broker estimates total Hemi development capex of $1.2bn from FY27-29 and has retained the first production expectation for 4Q29.

The broker also trimmed FY26 production forecast by -5% to 1,694koz due to a slower-than-expected start to the year. This compares with guidance of 1,700-1,850koz.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $24.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.88 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.62, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

After the conference call following Nufarm's FY25 results, Citi has an improved outlook on the company.

Among the highlights are supportive Crop Protection conditions, margin gains in Omega-3, reduced supplier-finance use, stable fish-oil assumptions, and lower, more focused FY26 R&D.

Sell. Target $2.35.

On first take, the broker pointed to an earnings beat with a positive outlook statement, which it expects would support the shares.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $302.5m were better than expected and within guidance, while margins beat at 8.8% despite more elevated corporate costs versus expectations. Crop protection in North America, Asia and Europe assisted.

Omega-3 and Carinata, the emerging platforms, generated a loss of -$53m at the EBITDA level and net interest expense was above expectations by 10-14%. Net free cash flow was negative -$131m, with Nufarm seeking to generate positive free cash flow in FY26.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.21
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.06, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Steadfast Group to Neutral from Outperform as commission rates are falling faster and the premium rate cycle is easing.

The broker now forecasts weakness in the premium rate cycle will last longer than the next 12 months and put pressure on the company's ability to "hub" its insurance brokers.

Macquarie's market analysis indicates an accelerating pace of commission rate cuts and, although home and personal motor products are generally not profitable for brokers, remains concerned about customer retention for business packages.

Target is reduced to $4.90 from $7.00.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Sandfire Resources recently reached an agreement with Havilah Resources ((HAV)) to advance the Kalkaroo copper-gold project.

Ord Minnett explains Sandfire will earn up to an 80% interest in the project via an initial -$105m payment (70% scrip, 30% cash). This will be followed by  a further -$105m on completion of a new preliminary feasibilty study (PFS) and 20km drilling program.

A further -$30m will fund regional exploration.

This tie-up adds to the recent rise in copper-sector M&A, which the broker views as supportive for long-term commodity pricing.

Ord Minnett values the option at around $307m and sees the entry price as modest. Incorporating the deal lifts the broker's target price price by 5% to $17.30,. An Accumulate rating is kept.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $15.70 Difference: $1.6
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Australian Industrial & Logistics supply remains tight while demand is rising, making the sub-sector attractive within real estate.

The broker sees the best opportunities in high-quality, well-located warehouses with stronger tenant demand and resilient rental growth.

Goodman Group remains the broker's top pick due to its global exposure with added data-centre growth. Stockland is also a preferred exposure, though residential performance is important for the stock.

Buy retained for Stockland. Target unchanged at $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $0.69
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKO as Neutral (3) -

Serko posted first half revenue that was in line with Macquarie's expectations, underpinned by Booking.com and contribution from GetThere.

The broker notes the company's strong position in its core Australasian market, while expansion across the US and Europe is driven by the partnership with Booking.com and the recent acquisition of GetThere. This will be the main catalyst going forward to drive a re-rating.

Neutral retained. Target is reduced to NZ$2.71 from NZ$3.17.

Current Price is $2.22. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 112.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko reported 1H26 operating revenue and costs, meeting UBS' expectations, boosted by a robust A&NZ performance for managed travel volumes as well as North American pricing. Forex was an additional tailwind.

North American (GetThere) was generally in line with the analyst's forecast of around 1.8m bookings over 1H, with UBS thinking its 3.2m FY26 bookings estimate may be too low.

B2B is indicating a more challenging EU macro economy, with room nights per customer down -5%, which was offset by better forex effects and growth in customers of 18%.

The broker tweaks their operating revenue forecasts up 2% for FY26 and down -6% for FY27/FY28, which still suggests a CAGR of 18% sales growth over the next three years.

Retain Buy rating. Target price slips to NZ$4.35 from NZ$4.55.

Current Price is $2.22. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 112.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights Santana Minerals returned high-grade infill results at Rise and Shine, enhancing underground potential and confirming strong continuity across down-plunge extensions.

The program is adding further upside at RAS South, note the analysts, with several intercepts sitting outside current mining plans.

High-grade mineralisation is considered supportive of development as the Fast-track Approvals Act lodgement initiates a timeline targeting consents in H1 of 2026.

The company's $97.5m cash balance enables land purchases, early works and continued exploration ahead of financing, the broker notes.

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating and target of $1.63.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.82
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SPZ as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes Smart Parking’s growth outlook remains compelling, with FY26 and FY27 earnings expected to rise around 60% and 30%, respectively.

The broker sees significant incremental UK yield benefits as improved late-payment processes lift collections and may add meaningful earnings leverage.

Strong progress in the US small-lot opportunity is considered a major blue-sky driver as Smart Cloud adoption gains traction. The broker notes New Zealand churn of around 1% supports long-term site expansion and enhances valuation flexibility.

Buy, High Risk rating and $1.50 target are left unchanged.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.195
If SPZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes ASX energy stocks have outperformed commodities in 2025, but momentum is fading, with softer Brent expectations plus rising domestic gas policy risk partly priced in.

The broker reckons the sector remains growth-heavy with weaker free cash flow metrics than global majors, leading to a cautious short-term sector stance.

Santos has potential catalysts, in the broker's view, after recent underperformance, but limited capex visibility remains a key variable, and its valuation looks reasonable.

FY25 underlying net profit forecast lifted by 8% and FY26 by 3%. Hold rating with unchanged $6.80 target.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.63 Difference: $0.17
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Hold (3) -

TechnologyOne delivered FY25 profit (PBT) of $181.5m, broadly in line with Bell Potter's forecasts and ahead of guidance, with strong cash generation of 134% driven by annual upfront billings.

The broker notes annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $554.6m was slightly softer than expected, although dividends were supported by a higher-than-anticipated 10c special payment. The final dividend of 20c was in line with Bell Potter's forecast.

The analysts make modest FY26-27 profit forecast downgrades of around -1% reflecting lower margin assumptions despite small revenue upgrades.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating. The target falls to $33.00 from $38.50 on a lower assumed valuation multiple and weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.26 Difference: $3.74
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.11, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TNE as Neutral (3) -

TechnologyOne posted strong growth in the UK over FY25 and Macquarie observes structural tailwinds remain favourable amid cloud migration.

Despite the strong growth in the UK returns, the results missed estimates in other areas, implying a significant slowdown in the second half in the base business.

The broker expects a structurally lower rate of return over the next few years as the slowdown was partially because of the normalisation of inflation. Estimates for FY26 and FY27 are revised down by -8% and -12%, respectively.

Macquarie still envisages the long-term story is attractive although growth may weaken before it gets better. Neutral. Target price is reduced to $28.20 from $34.40.

Target price is $28.20 Current Price is $29.26 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.11, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TNE as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades TechnologyOne to Overweight from Equal-weight after the recent pullback in the shares created a compelling entry point.

The broker asserts while the rate of return, ex-UK, has slowed in the FY25 results, the business remains highly profitable and generating free cash flow.

Morgan Stanley believes the market reaction to this has reset valuation to attractive levels vs global peers, lauding its defensive characteristics despite investors clearly rotating out of growth software stocks at present.

Target is raised to $36.50 from $29.30. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $29.26 Difference: $7.24
If TNE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.11, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TNE as Hold (3) -

TechnologyOne’s FY25 result missed elevated expectations, notes Ord Minnett, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) up 18% versus the broker’s 19% forecast and consensus at 23%.

UK ARR growth of 49% and solid Education and Local Government performance partly offset softer metrics, explain the analysts.

Earnings (EBITDA) came in slightly below Ord Minnett's expectation, though profit (PBT) rose 19% and exceeded guidance. A 10c special dividend lifted the payout ratio to 65-75%.

Early demand for the new AI-driven Plus product is encouraging to the broker, with eight deals signed. While TechnologyOne remains a high-quality software name, valuation appears full at 60x FY26 PE ratio, notes Ord Minnett.

Hold maintained. Target reduced to $29.78 from $33.04.

Target price is $29.78 Current Price is $29.26 Difference: $0.52
If TNE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.11, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TNE as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

TechnologyOne delivered a solid FY25 result, according to Shaw and Partners, with revenue and cash earnings slightly ahead of forecasts, despite annual recurring revenue (ARR) missing the broker's estimate by -1%.

Key metrics such as net revenue retention (NRR) of 115% and churn of -1.2% were within target ranges but lacked the acceleration the market was hoping for, explains the broker.

Strong UK ARR growth of 49% is considered a major highlight, reinforcing the company's product strength and medium-term expansion potential.

The analysts point out gross free cash flow (FCF) growth of 55% and a $320m cash balance support ongoing investment and capital returns.

Shaw lifts its target to $37.30 from $36.30 and upgrades to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $37.30 Current Price is $29.26 Difference: $8.04
If TNE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.11, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes ASX energy stocks have outperformed commodities in 2025, but momentum is fading, with softer Brent expectations plus rising domestic gas policy risk partly priced in.

The broker reckons the sector remains growth-heavy with weaker free cash flow metrics than global majors, leading to a cautious short-term sector stance.

Woodside Energy is the broker's top large-cap pick thanks to its strong operating performance, well-defined project pipeline and limited policy risk exposure.

FY26 underlying net profit forecast lifted by 2%. Buy rating with $30.60 target price.

Target price is $30.60 Current Price is $25.96 Difference: $4.64
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XYZ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has a Neutral rating and $105 target price on Block, up from $93.45.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $89.82 Difference: $15.18
If XYZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources