Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

Citi considers 29Metals' FY23 outlook to be a tough one. 29Metals continues to burn cash, with the company closing out the year with cash of $172m, down -$17m quarter-on-quarter after outflows in the fourth quarter. 

The broker also demonstrated concern around a lack of conviction on production and costs from the company, underpinned by behind schedule development and a lack of clarity on tailings dam strategy. 

Copper and zinc production is expected to be flat year-on-year, with production guidance ranges lower than Citi had anticipated. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.10 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.07
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates 29M as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse is not happy with 29Metals' December quarter production report. Yes, the company achieved its guidance, but more issues at Golden Grove means no growth should be expected in output for zinc and copper, the analysts explain.

Ventilation issues at Golden Grove also meant higher costs for the company during the quarter, with the broker highlighting growth capex guidance has now doubled year-on-year.

Underperform rating retained with the price target falling to $1 on reduced forecasts.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates 29M as Underperform (5) -

29Metals produced copper and zinc in the Dec quarter -2% lower and 13% higher then Macquarie's forecasts respectively. Costs were within 10% of estimates.

Operational issues exist at both Golden Grove and Capricorn, the broker notes. 29Metals had already pre-released 2023 production guidance but fresh cost guidance is significantly higher than forecast. Lots has to go right, says Macquarie, to achieve guidance.

Underperform retained. Target falls to $1.40 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ADH as Hold (3) -

Coming into the February reporting season, Morgans expects generally positive 1H results for many discretionary retailers, especially as comparisons will be against a previous corresponding period which included lockdowns.

Additionally, the analysts point out retail sales continue to rise faster than market expectations due to low rates of unemployment and elevated household savings ratios. It's felt the market has overestimated the impact of interest rate rises on the consumer.

For stocks under the broker's coverage, key picks include Add-rated Beacon Lighting, JB Hi-Fi and Universal Store.

Despite lowering FY23 and FY24 earnings (EBIT) estimates for Hold-rated Adairs, Morgans raises its target to $2.70 from $2.40 due to higher peer multiples. Results are due February 20.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Hold (3) -

After raising earnings estimates and making modeling adjustments prior to APA Group's 1H result on February 23, Morgans lifts its target to $10.56 from $10.31 and retains its Hold rating.

The broker's FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecast is in line with the consensus expectation and 3-5% higher for FY24-25, for a number of reasons including an assumption of stronger growth in WA and QLD.

Target price is $10.56 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

A positive update from retailer Myer suggesting retail conditions have remained strong during and following the peak holiday trading period has reaffirmed Citi's recent upgrade on Accent Group.

The broker notes the likelihood that Accent Group will report a strong holiday trading period has improved, and it expects the company continues to outperform through the second half with the company cycling undemanding comparables. 

The Buy rating and target price of $1.95 are retained.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.035
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AX1 as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Coming into the February reporting season, Morgans expects generally positive 1H results for many discretionary retailers, especially as comparisons will be made against a previous corresponding period which included lockdowns.

Additionally, the analysts point out retail sales continue to rise faster than market expectations due to low rates of unemployment and elevated household savings ratios. It's felt the market has overestimated the impact of interest rate rises on the consumer.

For stocks under the broker's coverage, key picks include Add-rated Beacon Lighting, JB Hi-Fi and Universal Store.

For Accent Group, which reports on February 23, Morgans lowers its rating to Hold from Add following a 50% share price rally since October last year. 

The broker's FY23 and FY24 earnings (EBIT) forecasts are increased by 7% and 6%, respectively, on an increased assumption for store openings and on the expectation FY23 guidance will be upgraded.

The $2.00 target is unchanged.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.085
If AX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BLX as Add (1) -

Coming into the February reporting season, Morgans expects generally positive 1H results for many discretionary retailers, especially as comparisons will be against a previous corresponding period which included lockdowns.

Additionally, the analysts point out retail sales continue to rise faster than market expectations due to low rates of unemployment and elevated household savings ratios. It's felt the market has overestimated the impact of interest rate rises on the consumer.

For stocks under the broker's coverage, key picks include Add-rated Beacon Lighting, JB Hi-Fi and Universal Store.

For Beacon Lighting, Morgans forecasts 1H earnings (EBIT) of $34.9m, in line with the record performance in the 1H of FY22. The company reports on February 16.

While the broker raises its FY23 sales estimate by 4%, the $2.60 target is unchanged.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.22
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Add (1) -

Coming into the February reporting season, Morgans expects generally positive 1H results for many discretionary retailers, especially as comparisons will be against a previous corresponding period which included lockdowns.

Additionally, the analysts point out retail sales continue to rise faster than market expectations due to low rates of unemployment and elevated household savings ratios. It's felt the market has overestimated the impact of interest rate rises on the consumer.

For stocks under the broker's coverage, key picks include Add-rated Beacon Lighting, JB Hi-Fi and Universal Store.

For Breville Group, Morgans retains its Add rating and $25 target. It's noted the company's premium to Italian peer De'Longhi is less than half the five year average.

As De'Longhi's shares have recently rallied, the broker believes Breville's may also rise if the company delivers at February 14 results.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.39 Difference: $2.61
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.72, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Outperform (1) -

Consistent with prior reporting periods, Macquarie expects a mildly positive result from Carsales. Both dealer enquiries and private metrics are improving as the automotive market weakens.

Earnings forecasts fall -13% in FY23-26 reflecting slightly higher organic growth for Encar, largely offset by lower terminal margin.

Target falls to $23.80 from $24.40, Outperform retained.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $22.87 Difference: $0.93
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.20, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCX as Hold (3) -

City Chic Collective's weaker December-half sales outpaced Ord Minnett's forecasts, and gross margins continued to feel the heat as the cost of doing business rose.

Management guides to continued inventory reduction, suggesting further marketing activity in the June half, and the broker expects the company will return to profit in FY24.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises to 60c from 35c. (This compares with a target of $1.10 in November).

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

A soft Dec quarter from Cooper Energy disappointed Macquarie on production, albeit FY23 guidance is maintained. Sales volumes dropped -13% and realised prices -8%.

Government intervention in the gas market has created more uncertainty for Cooper, the broker notes. Investors will need to monitor for any strategic shift once the new CEO commences, although the path for 2023 is already largely set.

Target falls to 20c from 25c, Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.01
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a soft 2Q for Cooper Energy with quarter-on-quarter production and sales revenue coming in below market expectations due to unplanned maintenance at the Orbost Gas Processing Plant. Realised gas prices exceeded expectations by 2%.

The broker maintains its Add rating and believes shares have been sold down into value territory though they may take some time to rebound. 

Shares have suffered not only from the disappointing result but also a sizeable capital raise to re-acquire Orbost, explains the analyst.

The target price falls to 27c from 30c.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.08
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' December quarter report showed production in line but sales were -14% below consensus with shipment slippage at Curragh to blame, the broker comments.

Credit Suisse notes the increase in inventory but also expects this to be resolved over the quarters ahead. Prices should be higher from here onwards, also due to built-in lag.

Credit Suisse is forecasting a dividend yield of around 30% per annum for this year and next (2023 and 2024) and suggests this in itself should keep investor interest alive.

Outperform retained with a reduced price target of $2.30 (-10c) on reduced forecasts.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.2
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' Dec quarter featured stronger production offset by weaker sales, Macquarie notes. Realised prices remained buoyant over 2022, driving a 66% increase in revenue year on year. Prices are expected to remain strong in the first quarter 2023.

Met coal prices continue to be buoyant and drive upside, with free cash flow yields remaining above 35-40% at spot prices from 2023
onward, the broker calculates.

Target falls to $2.70 from $2.80, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.6
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Neutral (3) -

Following 4Q production update, UBS determines 2022 run-of-mine (ROM) production, sales and costs for Coronado Global Resources were broadly in line with the broker's estimates.

Curragh results were a beat, while US assets missed expectations after severe snowstorms. The Neutral rating and $1.70 target are unchanged.

Management withdrew guidance after a deluge across the Bowen Basin in QLD.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTD as Buy (1) -

UBS believes the outlook for the Travel sector is "less bad" than market expectations in December. While the recovery in the US travel market is thought to have stalled, optimism springs from the China reopening.

North America is the most impacted region, followed by Europe and Corporate travel is more impacted than Leisure, according to the analyst.

The broker considers Corporate Travel Management is well placed for ongoing market share gains by leveraging deployment of its
technology stack. The Buy rating is maintained.

The target falls to $25.50 from $26.80.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $17.02 Difference: $8.48
If CTD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.95, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -

Centaurus Metals has continued to push forward key milestones for delivery of its definitive feasibility study for Jaguar including met test work, pricing proposals, and design plans, Macquarie notes. The resource grew 28% in 2022.

Jaguar is a tier 1, global top-20 nickel sulphide deposit. the broker points out. Of note, the Brazilian power grid sources from 80% renewables, and once Jaguar commences production the project should be able to source 100% renewable power.

Outperform and $1.60 target retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.435
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DEG as Outperform (1) -

During  the Dec quarter, De Grey Mining formally signed a Mining Agreement with the native title holders of Mallina, Macquarie notes. The miner ended the quarter with no debt and enough cash to fund a final investment decision.

De Grey has also previously indicated further production growth is also prospective via plant debottlenecking, new pit optimisations, a new discovery as well as the potential for a concurrent underground operation.

Outperform and $1.90 target retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.33
If DEG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of Domain Holdings Australia's result next month, Macquarie has cut its FY23 earnings forecast by -35% and by high teens over FY24-26, reflecting soft controllable yield growth; reduced income from marketplace business; geographical mix headwinds.

Macquarie would like to see greater clarity regarding controllable yield and supplementary business before becoming more constructive.

Target falls to $2.90 from $3.00, Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Citi spotted a better than expected first half from Evolution Mining, with the company maintaining full year guidance. Red Lake was a key exception to the result, with the asset's production and mining costs declining to levels reported eighteen months ago. 

With Red Lake yet to deliver sustained green shoots in its more than three years of operations, Citi feels Evolution Mining remains expensive. 

The Sell rating and target price of $3.00 are retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining's December quarter production update has triggered only minor reductions to Credit Suisse's forecasts. Underperform rating remains in place and the price target sits at $2.80 (unchanged).

New site management is required to right this ship operationally, as highlighted by the broker, who laments the lack of discipline and leadership that has cost the company during the quarter.

Among the positives cited: despite heavy rainfall, Cowal still achieved a record with production increasing 33% on the previous quarter.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining's Dec quarter production fell short of expectation (weather) but costs were lower, Macquarie notes. FY23 guidance has been retained, but the broker forecasts production at the bottom and costs at the top end of the ranges.

Despite an expected stronger end to FY23, Macquarie remains cautious on Evolution’s balance sheet.

Catalysts include improvement in Red Lake and timing of the first stope at Cowal in addition to the upcoming studies at Ernest Henry and Mungari. Target rises to $2.90 from $2.70, Underperform retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Evolution Mining has missed Morgan Stanley's second quarter gold production expectations by -6%, with its Red Lake asset underperforming and its Cowal asset outperforming. The Red Lake miss was attributed to lower processed grades, driven by increased dilution and absenteeism. 

Despite second half results, the company has retained guidance, and Morgan Stanley warns some catch up will be required over the second half, particularly from Red Lake.

The Overweight rating and target price of $3.35 are retained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Evolution Mining delivered a mixed December quarter, Cowal outperforming Ord Minnett's forecasts and Red Lake underperforming. Costs beat the broker.

Ord Minnett observes that the share price has outpaced peers by 16% since September 30. FY24 EPS forecasts are revised upwards following a review of the broker's copper-price deck.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate to reflect the recent rally in the share price. Target price rises to $3.20 from $3.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

While 2Q production missed forecasts by UBS and consensus, the overall result was a beat thanks to copper credits which reduced all-in sustaining costs (AISC). Performances for Cowal and Ernest Henry were considered strong, while Red Lake and Mt Rawdon (rain) disappointed.

Production and AISC guidance was maintained though the broker points out an improved run rate for grades at Red Lake will be needed.

Upside capex risk remains and UBS retains its Sell rating. The $2.80 target is unchanged.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes the outlook for the Travel sector is "less bad" than market expectations in December. While the recovery in the US travel market is thought to have stalled, optimism springs from the China reopening.

North America is the most impacted region, followed by Europe and Corporate travel is more impacted than Leisure, according to the analyst.

The broker lowers its target for Flight Centre Travel to $17.00 from $17.70 and retains its Neutral rating. While the momentum in Corporate remains strong, Leisure is impacted by a range of factors including labour headwinds.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.55 Difference: $1.45
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.00, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPH as Neutral (3) -

Northern Hemisphere winter saw the return of flu, RSV and covid, Macquarie notes. ICU occupancy appears above average though some -15% below covid peaks.

Macquarie makes no further changes to forecasts, having recently upgraded.

Neutral and NZ$26.67 target retained.

Current Price is $23.18. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GHY as Initiation of coverage with a Speculative Buy (1) -

Gold Hydrogen aims to produce low cost and low carbon energy and is exploring for naturally occurring hydrogen in South Australia near legacy exploration wells that formerly discovered high concentrations of hydrogen.

The company is estimated to hold a prospective resource of 1.3bn kg of hydrogen in South Australia (PEL 687).

Morgans sees significant share price upside should hydrogen be discovered in commercial quantities and flow rates, and commences coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and 76c target.

Gold is used in the company name as gold hydrogen is another term for white hydrogen, which is naturally low in carbon.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.16
If GHY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HT1 as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie is on research restrictions for HT&E.

Current Price is $1.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 36.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPH as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley initiates on intellectual property services group IPH, predicting a 12% earnings per share compound annual growth rate through to FY25 comprising 4% organic and 8% inorganic growth. 

The broker notes flat share performance from IPH outperformed the small ords over 2022, which the broker attributes to macro uncertainty increasing the fairly defensive stock's attractiveness. Morgan Stanley expects IPH is placed to deliver persistently high returns, supported by scale advantages.

The broker initiates with an Overweight rating and a target price of $10.50. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.18 Difference: $2.32
If IPH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.65, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Add (1) -

Coming into the February reporting season, Morgans expects generally positive 1H results for many discretionary retailers, especially as comparisons will be against a previous corresponding period which included lockdowns.

Additionally, the analysts point out retail sales continue to rise faster than market expectations due to low rates of unemployment and elevated household savings ratios. It's felt the market has overestimated the impact of interest rate rises on the consumer.

For stocks under the broker's coverage, key picks include Add-rated Beacon Lighting, JB Hi-Fi and Universal Store.

JB Hi-Fi provided a trading update earlier this month that exceeded Morgans expectations. Further commentary on the company's inventory position is eagerly awaited. The $53 target is retained.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $48.81 Difference: $4.19
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.03, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy's December-quarter result outpaced Macquarie's forecast and cost guidance was lowered.

The company reports drilling has started at Neon-1 aimed at improving certainty around the resource.

At close of 2022, the company held US$163m in cash and -US$30m in debt. Its Petrobras contingent payment is due soon, and the broker estimates that remaining capital expenditure is now -US$145m for the June half.

EPS forecasts fall -10% in FY23 to reflect a postponement of the Patola commencement. EPS forecasts rise 4% in FY24 and 1% in FY25 to reflect lower operational expenditure.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises 2% to $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.75
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates KGN as Underperform (5) -

On Credit Suisse's assessment, Kogan.com's interim pre-release "does not inspire much confidence in the near-term outlook". Forecasts have yet again been downgraded.

While the price target lifts to $2.96 from $2.73, the broker sticks with an Underperform rating (share price is much higher).

The broker suggests the market's bullish thesis is based upon a view that, underlying, somewhere, there is a profitable business in there. Credit Suisse questions whether there is any genuine positive cash flow generation at all.

One solution might present itself: Wesfarmers bought Catch, Woolworths paid a high price for My Deal. Kogan next?

Target price is $2.96 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KGN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Kogan.com with a Buy rating and $10.70 target price (fair value).

The broker notes the company's shares are trading sharply below intrinsic valuation post covid but expects its profit margin will grow in the June half as inventory clears, and as warehousing and marketing costs fall as a percentage of gross sales.

Top-line growth is also forecast to recover somewhat and management advises gross margins rose this month.

Kogan is one of Australia's largest online retailers with strong brand recognition and Ord Minnett believes it will continue to benefit from structural e-commerce trends.

Meanwhile, the company's balance sheet recovered in the December half, observes the broker, net cash rising to $74m from $40m in the previous December.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $6.28
If KGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises its target for Neutral-rated Kogan.com to $4.50 from $3.60 due to EPS upgrades from FY25 onwards and a higher net cash position.

While the company's 1H trading update was soft, the analyst notes the balance sheet continues to improve and inventory has fallen significantly. An improvement in margins is considered imminent.

While cautious on momentum for revenue, the broker forecasts a solid rebound in gross margin through the 2H of FY23 into FY24. Operating leverage is expected on a leaner cost base. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) profitability is tipped for the 2H of FY23.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.08
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -

Lunnon Metals reports the Baker Mineral Resource has nearly doubled within six months and that historical core sampling has driven an increase in its Mineral Resource at Foster Central by 3.7 kilotonnes of nickel.

The company closed the December quarter with $25.1m in cash, in line with Macquarie's forecasts.

Macquarie lowers FY23 EPS forecasts by -4% to reflect December-quarter cash-flow movements, and outer-year forecasts are steady.

The broker expects more updates from Warren and Baker resources, and news on permits from Foster, in the March quarter.

Outperform rating and $1.30 target price retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.33
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects Link Administration's ultimate aim is to downsize operations to its core RSS and Corporate markets, and focus on growing these at 5-10% per annum. However with this final vision some way away, the broker highlights difficulty in determining an investment case for the stock.

The broker has adjusted its outlook for Link Administration's new structure, with the company now having almost no holding in Pexa Group ((PXA)), and current market conditions. This sees earning per share decrease -8%, -15% and -13% through to FY25.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.00 from $1.69.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.035
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 70.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

Coming into the February reporting season, Morgans expects generally positive 1H results for many discretionary retailers, especially as comparisons will be against a previous corresponding period which included lockdowns.

Additionally, the analysts point out retail sales continue to rise faster than market expectations due to low rates of unemployment and elevated household savings ratios. It's felt the market has overestimated the impact of interest rate rises on the consumer.

For stocks under the broker's coverage, key picks include Add-rated Beacon Lighting, JB Hi-Fi and Universal Store.

For Lovisa Holdings, Morgans forecasts 60 store openings in the 1H. The global network expansion is considered critical to the broker's investment thesis.

The analyst increases the FY23 and FY24 revenue forecasts and raises dividend payout estimates. The target rises to $28.50 from $24.50. Add.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $25.98 Difference: $2.52
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.94, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten (2) -

Ord Minnett raises Magellan Financial's rating to Accumulate from Lighten but cuts its fair value estimate -43% to $11.50 from $20, as covid and management disruptions continue to take their toll.

The broker is bucking the trend with the ratings upgrade, due to a change of coverage to Morningstar away from JP Morgan, but sees little in the wings to return the company to its former glory.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $9.19 Difference: $2.31
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.25, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Citi expects price changes to prove positive for Megaport, although limited in the near-term, with pricing for ports, MCRs and MVE up 20% across markets.

More positively, the broker expects the changes to positively impact on churn, expecting contract lengths to increase with longer-term plans offering better fiscal value. 

The broker does note price changes impact only on new customers. The Buy rating and target price of $14.00 are retained. 

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $7.04
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 47.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi is positive that synergies from Plush will be enough to offset short-term profit impacts of a customer slow down for Nick Scali, but does see a prolonged housing downturn as posing downside risk to its thesis.

The broker largely expects Nick Scali will report a first half result in line with consensus expectations, with Citi slightly below consensus and at the bottom end of guidance range on net profit. 

The Buy rating and target price of $15.83 are retained.

Target price is $15.83 Current Price is $11.80 Difference: $4.03
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has reduced its target on News Corp to US$17.00 from US$18.00 but has not provided an AUD equivalent, which was last at A$26.00.

Neutral retained.

Current Price is $28.17. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $37.05, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

With exclusivity of Brookfield/EIG's bid for Origin Energy ending on January 24, Macquarie examines Plan B.

The broker says the risk for investors is skewed to the downside given repricing concerns and the possibility that a competing offer will not be forthcoming.

But Macquarie doubts the premium will automatically unwind post January 24 and expects pressure to reconsider a de-merger will escalate.

Macquarie says December-quarter energy markets suggest the outlook appears to be to the upside.

The broker expects Origin's APLNG income has fallen given currency fluctuation and assumes declines across FY23, FY24 and FY25.

Outperform rating and target price of $9.00 are retained on bid prospects.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: $1.7
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.60, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

A positive update from retailer Myer suggesting retail conditions have remained strong during and following the peak holiday trading period could indicate a similarly positive result for Premier Investments, according to Citi. 

The update is consistent with Citi's largely positive view on the consumer. While the broker retains its Neutral position on the stock given mixed feedback on apparel and elevated inventory, it does note risk appears to be to the upside. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $26.30 are retained.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $27.60 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.62, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

Perseus Mining's FY23 December quarter outpaced Macquarie's forecast by 3% and all-in-sustaining costs proved a 15% beat.

But management downgraded June-half guidance.

After accounting for the downgrade and updated hedging information, the broker cuts FY23 EPS forecasts by -31% and raises outer year EPS forecasts by 1% to 5%. 

Neutral rating and $2.50 target price retained. The broker awaits the FEED study outcomes in the December half for the Meyas Sang Gold project.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.23
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RED as Speculative Buy (1) -

Red 5's December-quarter production broadly met Ord Minnett's forecast (-2% shy), higher volumes offsetting slightly lower pit grades (which the broker notes are starting to reconcile with Reserve forecasts).

Cash deteriorated -56% to $26m after a working capital adjustment. Management provided strong June-half guidance.

Ord Minnett appreciates the company's steep discount to producers and developers and expects this will reverse along as grades, production and the balance sheet improve.

Earnings forecasts rise 28% in FY23; 6% in FY24 and 10% in FY25. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 37c from 36c.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.12
If RED meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32's December-quarter result appears to have pleased UBS but the broker still expects the company's December-half profit to fall shy of consensus, based on reported sales volumes, realised prices and updated unit-cost guidance.

UBS does not expect a special interim dividend or extension of the buyback given South32 now holds $927m in debt. All key assets posted solid results.

At current spot prices, UBS expects FY23 June-half earnings to double and South32 remains UBS's preferred Australian diversified minor.

Buy rating and $5.70 target price retained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: $0.87
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDR as Buy (1) -

UBS believes the outlook for the Travel sector is "less bad" than market expectations in December. While the recovery in the US travel market is thought to have stalled, optimism springs from the China reopening.

North America is the most impacted region, followed by Europe and Corporate travel is more impacted than Leisure, according to the analyst.

The broker maintains its Buy rating for SiteMinder, with upside should subscription growth return to historical levels. The target falls to $6.25 from $6.80.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $2.55
If SDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 47.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie expects Seek will just miss consensus forecasts when it reports its December-half results, and that the company faces more challenges ahead.

But the broker expects this will be overshadowed by a possible FY23 guidance downgrade given the prospect of a slowing economy and Seek's assumption of a steady labour market. The broker is also keeping a keen eye to operating expenditure.

FY23 EPS forecasts fall -7% in FY23; -22% in FY24; and -29% in FY25.

On the upside, the broker expects a weaker economy allows the company to execute on its "dynamic pricing" as job applications rise for each advertisement.

Underperform rating retained. Target price falls -6% to $19.50.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $24.39 Difference: minus $4.89 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Sandfire Resources' December quarter was a mixed one, but positively power costs reduced from 20% of operating expenditure to 12%.

Matsa copper production did miss expectations, and Citi expects this will carry through to full year guidance, while Motheo copper is on track to deliver first production in the June quarter.

The scarcity of copper on the ASX has seen Citi lift its target price on Sandfire Resources. The broker sees headroom for copper pricing over the next three months but expects a decline over the full year. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.40 from $5.60.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $0.1
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Underperform (5) -

Sandfire Resources' December quarter production report included a better-than-expected EBITDA performance and Credit Suisse has increased its price target to $5.10 from $4.30.

The broker does retain a problem with the valuation, hence no change to the Underperform rating.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire Resources' December-quarter production outpaced Macquarie's forecasts, a beat at DeGrussa offsetting weaker copper production at MATSA.

The broker observes Motheo is on track and on budget with commissioning expected this quarter.

Macquarie also advises that Sandfire Resources is strongly exposed to spot prices, which currently suggest a FY24 free cash flow yield of 14%.

EPS forecasts fall -8% in FY23 to reflect softer MATSA FY23 zinc production and the DeGrussa processing extension. EPS forecasts rise 2% to 7% across FY24 to FY28.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises 8% to $7. 

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $0.7
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

Sandfire Resources missed Morgan Stanley's second quarter copper output expectations by -6%. The MATSA asset was a key driver of the result, with production -13% lower than anticipated, but with strong cost control and improved energy prices driving a 6% cost beat.

With full year guidance retained, Morgan Stanley expects MATSA guidance remains achievable for the company. Elsewhere, construction at Motheo appears ahead of schedule, while drill results near a new mineralisation zone could support upside. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.85 from $5.80. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $0.55
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises its target for Neutral-rated Sandfire Resources by 14% to $6.50 after a 2Q production miss was offset by -15% lower C1 costs due to lower energy costs and higher by-product credits.

The company's outlook has improved materially, in the opinion of the analyst, since a new ceo appointment, a completed rights issue and a rally in copper and zinc prices on China reopening sentiment.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $0.2
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SWM as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reviews Seven West Media ahead of its December-half result and expects an in-line result, noting the company is showcasing solid TV ratings which should lead to monetisation opportunities.

EPS forecasts rise 7% in FY23; 14% in FY24; and 25% in FY25 to reflect the Cricket Australia renewal, the NBCU agreement.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises 10% to 45c from 41c in November.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.01
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.66, suggesting upside of 47.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reviews Southern Cross Media ahead of its December-half result and raises EPS forecasts 37% in FY23; 186% in FY24 and 30% in FY25, believing radio operators will weather any slowdown in advertising better than other mediums.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises 14% to $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.045
If SXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Telstra to Outperform from Neutral prior to the December-half result and raises the target price to $4.50 from $4.

The upgrade reflects the broker's expectation of a recovery in roaming revenue and stronger-than-forecast subscriber growth after customers fled Optus after the September/October data breach.

Macquarie also expects a 4.6% uptick in ARPU half on half.

EPS forecasts fall -2% in FY23; -4% in FY24; and -3% in FY25 to reflect the impact of inflation on operational expenditure.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.41
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPG as Buy (1) -

UBS considers new mobile plans released by Vodafone (less plans with less data) are a positive for TPG Telecom and is further evidence of rational pricing in the Australian market.

The analyst feels a reduction in data inclusions could incentivise customers to upgrade over time and the customer experience may be improved by less and simpler plans.

The Buy rating and $6.25 target for TPG Telecom are unchanged.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $1.11
If TPG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UNI as Add (1) -

Coming into the February reporting season, Morgans expects generally positive 1H results for many discretionary retailers, especially as comparisons will be against a previous corresponding period which included lockdowns.

Additionally, the analysts point out retail sales continue to rise faster than market expectations due to low rates of unemployment and elevated household savings ratios. It's felt the market has overestimated the impact of interest rate rises on the consumer.

For stocks under the broker's coverage, key picks include Add-rated Beacon Lighting, JB Hi-Fi and Universal Store.

Morgans forecasts FY23 (EBIT) of $46.2m (-3% below consensus) and $58.2m in FY24, which exceeds the consensus expectation by  6%. Results are due on February 23. The $6.70 target is retained.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $0.85
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

UBS believes the outlook for the Travel sector is "less bad" than market expectations in December. While the recovery in the US travel market is thought to have stalled, optimism springs from the China reopening.

North America is the most impacted region, followed by Europe and Corporate travel is more impacted than Leisure, according to the analyst.

The broker maintains its Buy rating for Webjet for reasons including strong market share gains, a bigger B2C and B2B skew to short-haul international and because 20% of B2B regions are yet to contribute.

The $7.10 target is unchanged.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.72 Difference: $0.38
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ZIP as Underperform (5) -

Zip Co's December-quarter revenue outpaced Macquarie's forecast but cash gross profit proved a 'miss'.

Macquarie believes Zip Co's US bad and doubtful debts may have bottomed after a slight improvement in the December quarter and the broker observes Australia and New Zealand operations have steadied.

The broker is now keeping a keen eye peeled to the company's cash burn in the June half (cash burn slowed in the December quarter).

Underperform rating and 55c target price retained, the broker awaiting further proof of improvement.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.155 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ZIP as Hold (3) -

Zip Co's December-quarter result pleased Ord Minnett after a strong improvement in US bad and doubtful debts and cash margin, but the broker believes the company is not yet out of the woods.

Zip Co closed 2023 with a cash balance of $78.5m, which Ord Minnett suspects could allow it to become cash-flow positive. But margins are tight.

Hold rating and 70c target price retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Sell (5) -

UBS retains its Sell rating and 45c target for Zip Co following a miss on 2Q total transaction volume (TTV). It's felt material uncertainty remains with a lot of moving parts to either bolster or reduce the $78.5m in available cash and liquidity recorded at the end of 2022.

US TTV was a -21% miss versus the broker's estimate due to a lower TTV/customer metric, while the growth in US active customers was in line with expectation.

The analyst assumes cash earnings (EBITDA) profitability by FY24, in line with Zip Co's target.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.255 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources