Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Citi remains cautious around the short-to medium-term outlook for ARB Corp following only a modest recovery in new car sales in July. Weakness in the passenger car segment continued (-9%), though was offset by 6% growth in the SUV category.

New car supply remains constrained for longer than the broker expected, interest rate hikes are adversely impacting
demand for discretionary products and labour challenges persist. The Buy rating and $46.63 target are retained.

Target price is $46.63 Current Price is $32.83 Difference: $13.8
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.31, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Citi note only a modest recovery in new car sales in July. Weakness in the passenger car segment continued (-9%), though was offset by 6% growth in the SUV category.

The broker sees Buy-rated Bapcor as best placed within the small cap Auto sector as it benefits from the supply constrained new vehicle market. The relatively non-discretionary nature of product offering, particularly in trade, is also expected to assist. Target $8.03.

Target price is $8.03 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $1.37
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BWP as Sell (5) -

Citi  highlights like-for-like rental growth has strong momentum for BWP Trust as  54% of leases are linked to CPI escalations and strong market rent reviews. This was evident from FY22 results and the business is now expected to perform well in FY23 and beyond.

The broker highlights like-for-like rental growth was 3.3%, which surprised the market, up from 2.2% in December 2021.

The broker likes the strong operational fundamentals and prudent financial positioning by management and lifts its target to $3.90 from $3.52. Low gearing of 15.1% and 55.2% hedging cover protects the trust from rising interest rates. 

As the analyst points to a strong relative valuation premium versus the sector, the Sell rating is unchanged.
 

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BWP as Underweight (5) -

BWP Trust's FY22 profit was a slight beat compared to Morgan Stanley's forecast, as like-for-like rental growth came in stronger than expected, assisted by CPI tailwinds. This theme is expected to continue for FY23.

Management guided to a FY23 DPS similar to the 18.3cps in FY22. The Underweight rating and $3.60 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BWP as Hold (3) -

Following BWP Trust's FY22 result, Ord Minnett highlights strong like-for-like rent growth of 3.3%, the highest level since 2014, due to a  high proportion of CPI-linked reviews.

The final distribution of 9.27cpu brings the the full-year distribution to 18.29cpu.

However, the broker feels potential upsides are priced into the current share price and retains a Hold rating. The upsides are ongoing leverage to the CPI, and pent-up investor demand for assets with secure covenants such as Bunnings.

There is portfolio lease expiry risk, points out the analyst, with 80% of leases up for renewal from FY24 to FY27.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

In anticipation of a good 2H result, Morgan Stanley lifts its target price for CommBank to $82 from $79 after raising its FY23 margin forecast by around 4bps. Industry view: Attractive.

The broker sees a brighter near-term earnings outlook from robust volume growth, margin trends and sound credit quality.  However, the Underweight rating remains, in the belief the stock is pricing-in a soft economic landing and ongoing franchise outperformance.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $100.47 Difference: minus $18.47 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $88.48, suggesting downside of -13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

CommBank's FY22 result is due on Wednesday August 10, and Ord Minnett expects 2H cash net profit from continuing operations of $4.805bn, and a final dividend of $2.05/share.

The analyst expects commentary on the net interest margin (NIM) outlook will be key, given the dynamics for higher interest rates and deposit market rates.

The Hold rating and $83.80 target are unchanged.

Target price is $83.80 Current Price is $100.47 Difference: minus $16.67 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $88.48, suggesting downside of -13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Corp's FY22 result fell 1% shy of Macquarie's forecasts as weak growth in the US workforce proved a headwind for collections and the macro environment kept Australia and New Zealand volumes in check.

Conditions were challenging but the broker says the result was supported by a record US purchased debt ledgers (PDL) outlay. Gross loan volume exceeded the FY19 record by 24%.

Guidance fell -10% below consensus and the company says leading indicators don't point to a rebound in A & NZ PDL volumes nor to a recovery in US resourcing constraints.

EPS forecasts fall -12% in FY23 and -14% in FY24. 

Target price falls to $24.90 from $37.80. Outperform rating retained to reflect the potential for one-off PDL acquisitions.

Target price is $24.90 Current Price is $22.60 Difference: $2.3
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT has purchased $101.7m of New Zealand CPI-linked service stations.

This comprises $58.1m on a portfolio of Gull petrol stations and $43.6n for Charter Hall Group's ((CHC)) 5% stake in an existing Charter Hall partnership that owns 204 Ampol service stations.

Macquarie considers the deal to be 1% accretive to FY23 earnings and observes gearing rises 1%.

EPS forecasts rise 0.5% in FY23; and 0.7% in FY24.

Target price rises to $4.23 from $4.21. Outperform rating retained, Macquarie appreciating the deal's defensive characteristics during times of economic stress.

Target price is $4.23 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.23
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects Domino's Pizza Enterprises to deliver FY22 earnings (EBITDA) of $424m on August 24, which would be 2% ahead of the consensus estimate.

The broker feels same store sales (SSS) growth and margins will be the key metrics. The overweight rating and $100 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $71.42 Difference: $28.58
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $89.19, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Endeavour Group is downgraded to a Sell from Neutral by UBS following the rise in the share price and a deteriorating risk/reward profile for investors.

The broker views the valuation as too stretched with the stock now trading at a similar PER multiple to ((WOW)) with the company's revenues not as defensive as assumed.

UBS highlights moderating retail spending will impact at the same time as Hotels re-opening is slowing and gaming is moving on-line, while inflationary pressures will impact on margins, such as rising labour costs.

Earnings forecasts are reduced by 3.2% for FY23.

A Sell rating and the price target is maintained at $7.20.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

Following a 2Q performance update by Frontier Digital Ventures, Morgans lowers its FY22-23 EPS forecasts by -14% and -15% (off a low base) after incorporating a mild softening for future earnings (EBITDA) margins. The target falls to $1.41 from $1.56.

The broker highlights robust 2Q revenue growth rates and the attainment of positive operating net cashflow for the portfolio, which is a key milestone. The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.44
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMA as Underperform (5) -

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia's June-half appears to have pleased Macquarie and management sharply upgrades 2022 guidance.

But the broker spies plenty of headwinds, expecting a -15% fall in house prices and rising unemployment.

EPS forecasts rise 9% in FY22 to reflect lower cancellations; 2% in FY23; and 0% to 5% in outer years to reflect improved investment incomes.

Target price rises to $2.20 from $1.95. Underperform rating retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If GMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GOZ as Neutral (3) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia will purchase Fortius Funds Management for $45m (net asset adjusted), to be completed in the September quarter and funded through debt, in a move that will add $1.9bn to its funds under management.

The deal includes an extra $10m earn-out subject to Fortisu achieving revenue milestones prior to the end of FY2024 and other clauses.

Credit Suisse explains the strategic rationale for Growthpoint is to improve product and sector capabilities and provide access to a new clients (wholesale, institutional and high net wealth).

The broker understand fee structures are consistent with the market and says insufficient information has been provided to assess the impact of the transaction.

For now, Neutral rating is retained. Target price is $4.27.

Target price is $4.27 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.58
If GOZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Outperform (1) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia has purchased Fortius Funds Management for $45m with a $10m earnout linked to platform growth.

Macquarie estimates the deal will be 1.4% accretive to annual FFO, and as much as 2% to 4% if Growthpoint can execute on the growth prospects, and that it is in line with the REIT's strategy.

EPS forecasts are steady for FY22; rise 1.2% for FY23; and 1.5% for FY24.

Target price rises 2% to $4.24. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $4.24 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.55
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Neutral (3) -

Citi remains cautious around the short-to medium-term outlook for G.U.D. Holdings following only a modest recovery in new car sales in July. Weakness in the passenger car segment continued (-9%), though was offset by 6% growth in the SUV category.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and sees increased uncertainty surrounding the company's earnings recovery. The $9.95 target price is maintained.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: $1.32
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.93, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IEL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects FY22 earnings (EBIT) of $155.4m, which would be 2% ahead of the consensus expectation, when IDP Education reports on August 25.

The broker will be looking for updates on the recovery in student placement and IELTS volumes, as well as the delivery of additional synergies from the BC India acquisition.

Overweight maintained. Target is $35. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $28.21 Difference: $6.79
If IEL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.24, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes that KMD Brands' competitors Columbia Sportswear and North Face have both lowered guidance, and consider this a more relevant indicator than recent KMD guidance.

Neutral rating and 85c target price retained.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Outperform (1) -

Lynas Rare Earths will spend $500m to expand and future-proof Mt Weld by decarbonising power and boosting production.

EPS forecasts are unchanged for FY22; fall -5% in FY23; and jump 5%, 8% and 5% in FY24-FY26 as the production ramp-up accelerates.

Outperform rating and $12.50 target price is retained.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $2.95
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Orica has acquired Axis Mining for $260m before costs and a $90m earn-out. The deal was struck on a multiple of 11.8x FY22 earnings (EBITDA). 

The deal is being funded by a $650m placement a a retail offer of up to $75m, the balance being directed to reducing debt, and Credit Suisse considers the deal to be marginally EPS accretive in FY23 and FY24.

Axis provides geospatial analysis technology for ore bodies and its main clientele are in copper and gold mining. The company enjoys a 70% gross margin largely from renting short-term equipment.

Orica's management has guided to a 10% to 12% return on net assets for FY23, suggesting a rise in earnings (EBITDA).

Target price falls to $16.67 from $17.71 to reflect the dilution. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. 

Target price is $16.67 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.12, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Orica has purchased Axis Mining Technology for $260m, which will be funded through a $650m institutional share placement and $75m SSP. Axis sells geospatial technology for orebody detection and its main exposure is to gold and copper. 

Macquarie says the balance of funds from the over-raise will be used to reduce gearing as supply-chain challenges hit working capital.

S&P had placed a BBB long-term credit rating on the company with a negative watch over the past year, says the broker.

Macquarie appreciates Axis' high-growth, high-margin profile, and says the deal fits with Orica's digital strategy, positioning it to become the industry's first end-to-end integrated mine-to-mill solutions provider.

The broker considers the deal to be mildly EPS accretive. EPS forecasts rise 0.4% in FY23; 1.4% in FY24 and 1.3% in FY25. 

Neutral rating retained. Target price edges up to $17.45 from $17.50.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $0.25
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.12, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley requires requires further information on Orica's -$260m acquisition of Axis Mining Technology before forming a definite view. One misgiving is the $650m placement, in excess of the full potential acquisition price, prompting concerns over 2H cash flow.

Management explained the excess raise by citing the need to cover incremental trade working capital items, and provide balance sheet flexibility.

To allow for the overall dilutionary impact of the placement and acquistion combined, the broker lowers its EPS estimates for FY23 and FY24 by -3% and -5%, respectively. The target falls to $18.40 from $19.70. Overweight. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $1.2
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.12, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Orica has announced a $650m institutional placement to assist in the funding of the Axis Mining Technology investment and help manage debt levels notes UBS.

The deal is priced at $16 per share and at 7% discount to the closing price at a 52-week high.

The broker considers the deal as "prudent" with Orica seeking to retain its investment grade credit rating around 30-40% on the back of $750m debt facility coming due in FY23 and the impacts of rising input cost inflation.

Orica also announced a share purchase plan up to $75m and highlighted the share placement would be earnings positive.

FY22 earnings guidance was reaffirmed, however the company highlighted cost inflation, supply chain and energy costs will remain as ongoing potential problems for FY23.

Target is raised to $17.00 from $16.70 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.12, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals has completed its 8th auction sale on its Battery Material Exchange (BMX) platform, landing a strong price, says Macquarie.

The broker says a ramp-up at Ngungagu should support more BMX sales and appreciates the company's free cash flow yields of 29% and 32% at spot prices for FY23 and FY24.

Outperform rating and $4 target price retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $1.2
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -

Morgans makes only minor changes to EPS forecasts following in-line FY22 results for Pinnacle Investment Management. While net inflows slowed over the 2H, they remained positive, and softer retail flows were dictated by the market, as opposed to performance.

The business model is showing strength in disruptive market conditions, according to the analyst. Material growth is expected over the medium term, and the target rises to $12.40 from $10.05, while the Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: $1.1
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.21, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PNI as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

After a 70% rally off the June low share price, UBS views Pinnacle Investment Management as expensive compared to other asset managers and downgrades the recommendation to Neutral from Buy.

The FY22 result, up 5% was better than the analyst forecast and excluding seed losses ($5.7m) the underlying numbers were strong.

Net inflows moderated in the 4Q22 from the previous quarter, ten boutiques provided $58m in performance fees and investment in Horizon 2 are likely to keep costs elevated.

Broker earnings forecasts have been raised 15% and 17% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

UBS increases the price target 22% from $10.00 to $12.20.

The recommendation is downgraded to Neutral from Buy on valuation grounds.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If PNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.21, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi forecasts lower capacity growth and higher cost per available seat kilometres (CASKs) than the market is expecting, and lowers its rating to Sell from Neutral for Qantas. Higher staffing levels to address on-time performance levels are expected to weigh.

In the short term, the broker expects higher fuel prices and overstaffing will put pressure on margins and decrease capacity. The target falls to $4.28 from $5.47 on earnings revisions, higher capex estimates and lower market multiples.

Target price is $4.28 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TAH as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett feels Tabcorp Holdings has missed the boat on digital market share by comparison to online bookmakers and downgrades its rating to Lighten from Hold on the prospects for heightened competition.

The broker also increases its capital expenditure estimates and lowers its target to $0.90 from $1.15. News Corp’s ((NWS)) market entry via BetR is expected to increase costs that have so far been necessary for Tabcorp to maintain market share.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLC as Overweight (1) -

With FY22 results for Lottery Corp expected on August 24, Morgan Stanley forecasts earnings (EBITDA) of $705m, which would be 1% in advance of the consensus expectation.

The Overweight rating and $5.15 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.57
If TLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.07, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -

The prospect for the beginning of the monetisation process for InfaCo Fixed (once legal separation is completed in October) represents the most significant event for Telstra since NBN Co was created, in Ord Minnett's opinion.

Once the broker extracts an estimated value for Infaco of $27-40bn from Telstra's overall valuation, the remaining business would be trading on multiples well shy of global telco peers. Buy. The target price of $4.65 is unchanged.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.7
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes that continuing consumer premiumisation in the wine industry is continuing global and this should support demand for Penfolds and a smaller 2021 Australian vintage should reduce the risk of oversupply.

EPS forecasts fall -0.6%  in FY22; -0.4% in FY23 and -1.1% in FY23.

Neutral rating and $12.55 target price retained.

Target price is $12.55 Current Price is $12.27 Difference: $0.28
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

In forecasting $529m, Morgan Stanley is 1.5% ahead of the FY22 consensus earnings (EBITS) estimate for Treasury Wine Estates. results are due on August 18. The Treasury Americas division is considered most likely to beat consensus expectations.

The $13.80 price target and Overweight rating are unchanged. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $12.27 Difference: $1.53
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse considers United Malt's investor day to be incrementally positive in that it at least provided an opportunity for management to explain the slump in the company's profit in the September half and why they expect a recovery in FY23.

Management detailed a range of changes to long-term customer agreements to share risks and deliver more responsive pricing.

The company pointed to logistical and supply chain problems and issues with crop quality, which it expects will reverse in FY23. The broker credits this as a reasonable assumption.

Outperform rating and $4.30 target price retained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $1.28
If UMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

United Malt Group has sharply upgraded FY23 earnings (EBITDA) at its investor day to reflect a forecast nine-month reversal of crop deterioration; expansion at Inverness in Scotland; and a windfall from the company's transformation program.

These trends are expected to drive continued momentum is also expected in FY24.

The company has also shifted customer contracts of less than one year to a more dynamic, risk-sharing model, although this will take time to roll out.

Macquarie notes the balance sheet is looking toppy but management expects gearing to return to target and has no plans to raise extra capital.

Outperform rating and $3.85 target price retained.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.83
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UMG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

United Malt downgrades earnings guidance at the Investor Day, only 2 months after re-affirming guidance which UBS believes raises concerns around management "visibility" into the earnings and operations.

The company highlighted headwinds across the business including crop problems with quality, supply chains and costs and pointed out aims to improve internal forecasting and more dynamic pricing contracts with clients to pass on cost increases.

Gearing levels ballooned and UBS questioned the ability of United Malt to deleverage the debt levels in FY23.

The recommendation is changed to Neutral from Buy in the absence of takeover offer or a turnaround in the earnings outlook.

Adjusting for a downgrade in earnings forecasts of -59%, -35& and -22% for FY22, FY23 and FY24, the target price is lowered to $3.05 from $4.65.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.03
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources' Kiaka feasibility study has delivered a larger maiden reserve than Macquarie had forecast.

The mine life is estimated at 18.5 years and is likely to require US$430m in pre-production capital - sharply lower than the broker forecast.

EPS forecasts rise 2% in 2023 but fall -43% in CY25 and -1% in CY26 after pushing commercial production back six months.

Target price rises to $1.60 from $1.50. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.17
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi draws comfort from a 3Q trading update for Xero's global peer Sage Group, which revealed no impact was being experienced from the macroeconomic environment.

This news presents upside to the analyst's subscription forecasts for Xero. Additionally, Sage declared it is not looking to compete in the sole trader segment, which now also presents upside to the broker's market share assumptions for Xero.

The Buy rating and $108 target are unchanged.

Target price is $108.00 Current Price is $96.90 Difference: $11.1
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $98.88, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources