Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates ABB as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers its forecasts to 848,000 broadband connections from 859,000 in FY25, which is below Aussie Broadband's target for more than 1m broadband services. This follows indications via the broker's data of declining brownfield activations since June.

While the target falls to $3.40 from $3.60, the analyst remains upbeat and still sees upside for the share price, despite a recent rally. Outperform.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.34
If ABB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ABC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In a review of the Australian Building Materials sector on January 24, Credit Suisse suggests spot energy costs have peaked and extraordinary rainfall is now normalising. 

The broker expects Boral and Adbri will benefit from this new outlook for the above two factors (having suffered from them in 2022).

The broker favours exposure to infrastructure and non-residential over residential, new construction and repair and remodel (R&R). Housing, along with additions and alterations (A&A) approvals/prices are falling, and the broker expects further deterioration.

Adbri (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral) should benefit to a lesser degree than Boral (upgraded to Outperform) from the improved weather and the stated sub sector preferences above, explains Credit Suisse.

There are no changes to earnings forecasts or target price.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

In a positive read through for AGL Energy, according to Morgan Stanley, management at Origin Energy has raised FY23 Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA) guidance.

The new guidance by Origin was a beat compared to forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus of 7% and 10%, respectively.

The Equal-weight rating and $8.01 target are retained. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $8.01 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: $0.31
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.74, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALG as Downgrade to Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan previously.

While it had appeared Ord Minnett had ceased coverage of Ardent, the switch has resulted in a "cut" (downgrade) to Lighten as the share price has moved through the broker's trigger level. Fair value 55c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If ALG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMP as No Rating (-1) -

In a general review of Australian Platforms on January 24, Credit Suisse concludes that specialist providers Hub24 and Netwealth Group will continue to win market share, underpinning the broker's positive investment thesis for both companies.

Additionally, the analysts suggest the whole sector should benefit from the Quality of Advice Review, which currently resides with the government.

The broker's order of preference: Hub24, Insignia Financial and Netwealth Group which are all Outperform-rated.  AMP is currently under research restriction.

On January 27, Credit Suisse lowered its forecasts after AMP announced it expected to recognise impairments charges in the order of -$68m (post-tax) at its FY22 result on February 16.

Current Price is $1.35. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting downside of -17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APE as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews the growing penetration of New Energy Vehicles (NEV) in Australia. 

Around 11% near-term upside in novated leasing volumes is expected by the broker for both Smartgroup Corp and McMillan Shakespeare, following the government’s Electric Car Discount (ECD) policy.

From among the listed auto dealers, the analysts determine Eagers Automotive offers the most exposure through its joint venture with Chinese brand BYD, which could represent around 12.5% of the company's new car volume.

The Neutral rating and $12.40 target are retained.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: $0.98
If APE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.02, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APM as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage of global human services business APM Human Services International with an Overweight rating and $3.00 price target. Shares have traded down around -30% since the IPO in November of 2021.

The broker likes the company's superior competitive position and clear evidence of market share gains, along with its ability to achieve scale globally without sacrificing quality. Offshore accounts for 68% of the company's revenue.

Growth is also expected from penetration in existing geographies via service expansion and cross-sell, explain the analysts.

While doubters point to poor historical returns from funding-linked social services (e.g. aged and child care), Morgan Stanley believes market share gains can offset any potential decline in unit economics.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.45
If APM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.62, suggesting upside of 37.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes a positive early start to the 2H for interest rate futures should help to mitigate downside risk from ASX's other products, as well as cost pressure.

Volumes for January rate futures are up 27% year-on-year, based on the broker's intra-month tracking, though low volumes were experienced in January 2022 (the comparative month).

The Equal-weight rating and $72 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $68.95 Difference: $3.05
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.27, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BLD as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

In a review of the Australian Building Materials sector on January 24, Credit Suisse suggests spot energy costs have peaked and extraordinary rainfall is now normalising. 

The broker expect Boral will benefit from this new outlook for the above two factors (having suffered from them in 2022). 

The broker favours exposure to infrastructure and non-residential over residential, new construction and repair and remodel (R&R). Housing, along with additions and alterations (A&A) approvals/prices are falling, and the broker expects further deterioration.

Boral benefits most, relative to other stocks in the sector, from these Credit Suisse preferences and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. There are no changes to forecasts and the $2.50 target is unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Better price realisation partially offset higher unit costs for Champion Iron in the December quarter, and saw the company deliver a 10% beat to Citi's earnings expectations. Given higher costs Citi lowered its full year earnings expectations. 

An update on the company's DR pellet feed project has the construction period estimated at 30 months for capital expenditure of CAD$470.7m. 

The Buy rating and target price of $8.40 are retained.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.75 Difference: $0.65
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Neutral (3) -

Despite reporting a production record in its third quarter, weaker sales volumes and higher costs saw Champion Iron's earnings miss Macquarie's expectations by -8%, with higher pricing somewhat offsetting the impact. 

Cash of CAD$166m was down -40% quarter-on-quarter and -36% lower than the broker had anticipated. More positive was the announcement of a feasibility study for the Direct Reduction Pellet Feed project. The project looks to cost CAD$470.7m, with CAD$10m already approved to progress the project ahead of a final investment decision. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.50 from $7.00.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.75 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Citi now forecasts a higher rate of inflation for Australia after last week's CPI figure. As a result, it's felt Charter Hall Long WALE REIT will achieve higher rental growth as 50% of the REITs rent is linked to CPI.

The analyst expects upgrades to consensus forecasts for the REIT and lifts its own target to $5.00 from $4.90. Buy.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.45
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan previously.

This has led to a downgrade to Sell from Hold for Coles Group, and a fair value set at $13.60 (previous target $15.80).

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $17.50 Difference: minus $3.9 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.02, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSR as Outperform (1) -

In a review of the Australian Building Materials sector on January 24, Credit Suisse suggests spot energy costs have peaked and extraordinary rainfall is now normalising. 

CSR benefited in 2022 from passing through costs associated with the above two factors. Relatively speaking Boral and Adbri will now benefit more with the new outlook and the broker's rating for CSR falls to Neutral from Outperform.

The broker favours exposure to infrastructure and non-residential over residential, new construction and repair and remodel (R&R). Housing, along with additions and alterations (A&A) approvals/prices are falling, and the broker expects further deterioration.

No changes to CSR's forecasts or the $6.10 target price are made.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.83
If CSR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FBU as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

In a review of the Australian Building Materials sector on January 24, Credit Suisse suggests spot energy costs have peaked and extraordinary rainfall is now normalising. 

Fletcher Building benefited in 2022 from passing through costs associated with the above two factors. Relatively speaking Boral and Adbri will now benefit more with the new outlook and the broker's rating for Fletcher Building falls to Neutral from Outperform.

The broker favours exposure to infrastructure and non-residential over residential, new construction and repair and remodel (R&R). Housing, along with additions and alterations (A&A) approvals/prices are falling, and the broker expects further deterioration.

No changes to Fletcher Building's forecasts or $7.00 target price are made.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $2.25
If FBU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Following a 2Q production report which revealed an outperformance versus peers on costs (cash costs for Fortescue Metals fell), Citi raises its FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by 8%.

While an operational sweet spot is acknowledged, the broker stays with its Sell rating after a 15% share rally in January, the difficulty of valuing both Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) and the Belinga iron ore project prior to drilling.

Management retained its guidance for FY23 shipments.

The $18 target is unchanged.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $22.49 Difference: minus $4.49 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting downside of -24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse assesses another strong quarter (2Q) for Fortescue Metals, with beats for iron ore production and price realisation of 4% and 2%, respectively, while unit costs were also around -2% lower than expected.

The broker's rating falls to Underperform from Neutral on a 50% share price rally since last November. It's suggested investors take profits and reallocate funds to sector peers with more favourable valuations.

The target rises to $17.20 from $15.30.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $22.49 Difference: minus $5.29 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting downside of -24.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has described Fortescue Metals as delivering a solid operational performance in its second quarter. Mined and processed volumes of 60m and 50m tonnes respectively were 4% and 3% ahead of the broker's expectations, and shipments of 49.4m tonnes were within -1% of expectations. 

The company reiterated its full year shipment guidance. The broker highlights first production from Iron Bridge remains on track for end of March, now anticipated to contribute less than 1m tonnes to output in FY23. 

The Underperform rating and target price of $17.50 are retained.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $22.49 Difference: minus $4.99 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting downside of -24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

After extrapolating the 1H production run rate for iron ore, Morgan Stanley highlights FY23 guidance would be exceeded, though management decided to maintain guidance.

Revenue realisation for the half was in line with the analyst's forecast.

The company confirmed the start of a drilling campaign at its iron ore tenement in Gabon, Africa. Should the drilling be successful and a mine developed, the broker notes additional country risk would accrue for the miner. 

The $14.85 target and Underweight rating are unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $14.85 Current Price is $22.49 Difference: minus $7.64 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting downside of -24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Reduce (5) -

Fortescue Metals' 2Q production results exceeded market expectation for shipments, pricing and cost performance though Morgans retains its Reduce rating. It's felt China's re-opening is already priced in and steel market conditions are still subdued in that country.

After the broker raises its long-term iron ore price forecast to US$72/t from US$65/t and increases its price realisation estimates for the next quarter to 84% from 82%, the target rises to $15.60 from $14.70.

Management left FY23 shipments guidance unchanged and noted first production at Iron Bridge is on track for the end of the 3Q.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $22.49 Difference: minus $6.89 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting downside of -24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating and $15 fair value for Fortescue Metals. The stock is trading at a 50% premium to the broker's fair value due to strong iron ore prices, buoyed by China's reopening, and a premium awarded for the company's green energy push.

Green energy is expensive and capital-intensive, Ord Minnett highlights. Iron ore will be the main driver of earnings for the foreseeable future.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan previously.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $22.49 Difference: minus $7.49 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting downside of -24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Fortescue Metals' iron ore operations continued to perform strongly in the December quarter, with quarterly shipments of 49.4m tonnes in line with UBS's expectations and above consensus. Group costs decreased -3% quarter-on-quarter, while net debt of -US$2.1bn was a beat to the broker's expected -US$2.5bn.

The company did lower shipment guidance for its Iron Bridge from 1m tonnes to less than 1m tonnes, and lifted its cost guidance towards the upper end of its previous guidance range. 

Taking a cautious view on iron ore, the Sell rating and target price of $18.70 are retained. 

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $22.49 Difference: minus $3.79 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting downside of -24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Outperform (1) -

With Global Lithium Resources updating the market on its second quarter, Macquarie highlights a key announcement is the completion of its equity raising and confirmation of its now 100% ownership of the Manna project. 

Macquarie points out the company reached an agreement with Breaker Resources ((BRB)) to acquire its 20% stake for $60m in November. 

The company also started its scoping study for Manna in the quarter, with results expected in coming months. Macquarie expects the environment approval timeline to be of interest to the market, with the lengthy process proving a headwind for WA projects.

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.20 are retained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $1.8
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GWA as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In a review of the Australian Building Materials sector on January 24, Credit Suisse suggests spot energy costs have peaked and extraordinary rainfall is now normalising. 

The broker favours exposure to infrastructure and non-residential over residential, new construction and repair and remodel (R&R). Housing, along with additions and alterations (A&A) approvals/prices are falling, and the broker expects further deterioration.

Boral (upgraded to Outperform) benefits most from these preferred exposures by Credit Suisse, while in relative terms GWA Group benefits less. The rating falls to Underperform from Neutral. There are no changes to earnings forecasts or the $2.30 target price.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.17
If GWA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

In a general review of Australian Platforms on January 24, Credit Suisse concluded that specialist providers Hub24 and Netwealth Group will continue to win market share, underpinning the broker's positive investment thesis for both companies.

Additionally, the analysts suggest the whole sector should benefit from the Quality of Advice Review, which currently resides with the government.

The broker's order of preference: Hub24, Insignia Financial and Netwealth Group which are all Outperform-rated.  AMP is currently under research restriction.

No changes to forecasts or the $33 target price.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $25.54 Difference: $7.46
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

With Hub24 releasing its second quarter update, Macquarie notes flows remain encouraging. The company reported net inflows of $2.8bn in the period, which alongside market movements drove funds under administration up $3.5bn quarter-on-quarter.

Less positively, the broker warns a Class expense review implies -$2m net profit downgrade per annum, with underlying net profits expected to reduce -$1m in the first half of FY23. Given the more subdued earnings profile, Macquarie sees better value elsewhere in the sector.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $31.30 from $32.00.

Target price is $31.30 Current Price is $25.54 Difference: $5.76
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -

In a general review of Australian Platforms on January 24, Credit Suisse concludes that specialist providers Hub24 and Netwealth Group will continue to win market share, underpinning the broker's positive investment thesis for both companies.

Additionally, the analysts suggest the whole sector should benefit from the Quality of Advice Review, which currently resides with the government.

The broker's order of preference: Hub24, Insignia Financial and Netwealth Group which are all Outperform-rated.  AMP is currently under research restriction.

On January 27, the broker lowered its target price to $4.20 from $4.30 following an underwhelming 2Q business update, due to one-off actions undertaken by management as it simplifies its business..

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.71
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

UBS found Iluka Resources' December quarter production largely in line, with prices continuing to outperform. The broker highlights the rapid relaxation of covid restrictions in China has it more optimistic on the price and demand outlook for mineral sands. 

The broker anticipates the company's full year results in late February, expecting Iluka Resources will also provide 2023 guidance and updates on its growth projects. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $11.55 from $11.30.

Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: $0.41
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.02, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett expects settlements for both Ingenia and Lifestyle Communities to record a greater second half skew compared with the average 40/60 split recorded over the past three years. Demand remains strong and construction bottlenecks are showing tentative signs of easing, the broker highlights.

The broker continues to see further upside in Ingenia, supported by strong demand and sustained momentum in its Holidays business. Buy and $5.09 target retained.

Target price is $5.09 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.43
If INA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

The Tampa ammonia price, which is the reference price for the majority of the ammonia sold at Incitec Pivot's Waggaman plant in Louisiana, explains Morgan Stanley, has fallen by -US$185/t to US$7590/t.

While this fall in price, according to company-compiled sensitivities, implies a fall in the broker's FY23 earnings (EBIT) forecast of around -11%, the analyst's full year US1,025/t price forecast remains in place.

The Overweight rating and $5.05 target are unchanged due to the ongoing, historically-high price. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $1.4
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LIC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett expects settlements for both Ingenia and Lifestyle Communities to record a greater second half skew compared with the average 40/60 split recorded over the past three years.

The broker points out demand remains strong and construction bottlenecks are showing tentative signs of easing.

While the broker continues to believe Lifestyle Communities is underpinned by strong underlying long-term fundamentals and a high-calibre management team, it is viewed as being fully valued on a 12-month basis.

Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate, target falls to $18.25 from $18.31.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $19.90 Difference: minus $1.65 (current price is over target).
If LIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates M7T as Add (1) -

Following a 2Q cash flow report for Mach7 Technologies, Morgans assesses a strong overall result and expects a positive earnings (EBITDA) outcome at the upcoming 1H result in February.

The broker notes only around $5.5m in additional contract wins need to be achieved in the 2H to achieve revenue guidance. The company is thought to have $60m in active tenders, which provides some context into potential over the next few years.

No changes are made to Morgans forecast and the Add rating and $1.34 target remain.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.6
If M7T meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

Morgans makes no changes to its forecast for Mineral Resources after steady overall 2Q production showing healthy volumes and prices, despite a slight deferral of expansion plans at Mt Marion.

The broker expects lithium and iron ore markets will remain tight with the China reopening, and raises its price forecasts for both commodities. As a result, the target rises to $99.40 from $94.00 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Mineral Resources is the only large-cap miner under Morgans coverage with production growth over the next three years above a 4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). There's considered to be large organic growth in the pipeline.

Target price is $99.40 Current Price is $92.16 Difference: $7.24
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $95.52, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MMS as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews the growing penetration of New Energy Vehicles (NEV) in Australia. 

Around 11% near-term upside in novated leasing volumes is expected by the broker for both Smartgroup Corp and McMillan Shakespeare, following the government’s Electric Car Discount (ECD) policy.

Smartgroup Corp is the purest play, according to the analysts, given circa 58% of revenue is from novated leases compared to 22% for McMillan Shakespeare.

The broker keeps its Buy rating and $16.40 target intact.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: $2.11
If MMS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.65, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYR as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan previously.

This results in a downgrade for Myer to Lighten from Hold on a fair value of 75c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Following Newcrest Mining's 2Q production report and guidance commentary, Credit Suisse (on January 27) lowered its FY23 earnings forecasts. FY25 forecasts also suffer from a lower forecast for production at Lihir. The target falls to $24.50 from $25.00. Outperform.

Downtime impacted production at Brucejack and ongoing drought conditions restricted water use at Lihir, explained the broker.

Management retained FY23 production guidance though a 2H pick up will be needed from Brucejack, Lihir and Telfer, noted the analyst, while 2H Cadia production is expected to be softer on lower grades.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $22.42 Difference: $2.08
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.00, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate (4) -

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan previously.

This has resulted in downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate and a target cut to $7.00 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.94 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.48, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Outperform (1) -

In a general review of Australian Platforms on January 24, Credit Suisse concludes that specialist providers Hub24 and Netwealth Group will continue to win market share, underpinning the broker's positive investment thesis for both companies.

Additionally, the analysts suggest the whole sector should benefit from the Quality of Advice Review, which currently resides with the government.

The broker's order of preference: Hub24, Insignia Financial and Netwealth Group which are all Outperform-rated.  AMP is currently under research restriction.

No changes to forecasts or the $13.70 target price.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $12.79 Difference: $0.91
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Outperform (1) -

With Netwealth Group updating the market on its second quarter, Macquarie highlights quarterly flows missed expectations despite tailwinds from market movements. The company reported net inflows of $2.1bn, seeing the company accordingly lower full year guidance to $11bn from a previous $11-13bn. 

Noting Netwealth Group's guidance remains a risk, Macquarie has lowered its full year flow forecast to $10.6bn from $11.8bn, suggesting an acceleration of flows in the second half. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $15.90 from $15.20

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $12.79 Difference: $3.11
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has been surprised by a guidance upgrade issued by Origin Energy. The company lifted its FY23 Energy Markets trading guidance 12-20% to $600-730m, and its gas trading guidance to $40-80m in FY23 and FY24 and to $450-600m in FY25 and FY26. 

The broker highlights the upgrade equates to 14.5 cents per share upside to valuation. Macquarie expects the gas guidance increase is a reflection of increasing hedging from Origin Energy to lock in spreads, and expects FY26 hedging is at 40-50%.

The Outperform rating and target price of $9.00 are retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: $1.63
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.48, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Overweight (1) -

Management at Origin Energy has raised FY23 Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $600-730m, a beat versus the forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus of 7% and 10%, respectively.

The Overweight rating and $8.88 target are retained. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: $1.51
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.48, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett resumes coverage of Origin Energy with a Hold rating and $8.00 fair value. The company has upgraded 2023 earnings guidance on better gas/electricity operating performance due to a return to securing coal on legacy contract pricing.

APLNG production has been downgraded by -4% due to wet weather. Disappointing, says Ord Minnett, but not manifest.

The broker ascribes a 50% chance of Origin being taken over.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan previously.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: $0.63
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.48, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

As semiconductor availability rose in the 2Q, Americas device sales for ResMed grew by 41%, highlights Citi, and production continues to be ramped-up.

Adjusted earnings (EBIT) were in line with the broker's forecast, while adjusted EPS was a 2% beat compared to consensus.

Management retained its device sales growth for FY23.

The analyst feels competitive dynamics remain favourable for the company and doesn't expect a full return by Philips until the end of 2023.

The target rises to $39.00 from $37.00 on a valuation roll forward.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $33.65 Difference: $5.35
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.73, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

Improving supply outcomes for the US and rest of the world (ROW) devices drove a 2Q revenue beat for ResMed, explains Credit Suisse, though COGS and operating expenses were both misses compared to expectations.

The analyst feels management's outlook commentary on supply issues was the most upbeat since the Philips recall, with all demand by the end of 2023 expected to be met.

The analyst had already allowed for this supply improvement in forecasts and retains a $37.50 target. Forecasts weaken slightly on a weaker gross margin recovery than previously estimated. 

The Outperform rating is unchanged, with the broker suggesting the longer-term benefit from the Philips recall is being underestimated by the market.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $33.65 Difference: $3.85
If RMD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.73, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

ResMed has released its second quarter results, reporting robust device growth as component supply and device availability improved in the quarter. Revenue was 4% ahead of Macquarie's forecast, while a gross margin of 56.8% a miss to the broker's expected 58.0%. 

The company is anticipating ongoing improvement in device availability over the remainder of the fiscal year, and Macquarie remains positive on the company's medium to long-term outlook.

The broker further notes updates from competitor Philips as to the impact of the FDA's consent decree remain a catalyst. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $37.85 from $37.75.

Target price is $37.85 Current Price is $33.65 Difference: $4.2
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.73, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -

US device revenue for ResMed rose by 41% in the 2Q, exceeding Morgan Stanley's 37% expectation.

The company reported overall 2Q revenue growth of around 16%, a beat compared to the forecasts of the analyst and consensus of 5% and 7%, respectively.

However, non-GAAP income (doesn't include non-recurring or non-cash expenses) from operations was in-line with consensus due to a lower gross margin and higher opex, explains the broker.

The Equal-weight rating and Industry view: In-line. Price target falls to $30.80 from $32.50.

Target price is $30.80 Current Price is $33.65 Difference: minus $2.85 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.73, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMD as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses 2Q results for ResMed were ahead of market expectations, with robust sales across all product lines. However, gross margin headwinds limited operating leverage.

The analyst highlights Americas sleep/respiratory sales rose strongly, underpinned by strong device and mask sales, while the rest of the world (ROW) performed evenly despite ongoing supply constraints.

Margin headwinds should abate slowly, suggests the broker, as management's focus shifts to manufacturing efficiencies (from maximising deliveries) lowering freight costs, improving the product mix and attaining higher Medifox Dan margins.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target rises to $37.24 from $37.00.

Target price is $37.24 Current Price is $33.65 Difference: $3.59
If RMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.73, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews the growing penetration of New Energy Vehicles (NEV) in Australia. 

Around 11% near-term upside in novated leasing volumes is expected by the broker for both Smartgroup Corp and McMillan Shakespeare, following the government’s Electric Car Discount (ECD) policy.

Smartgroup Corp is the purest play, according to the analysts, given circa 58% of revenue is from novated leases compared to 22% for McMillan Shakespeare.

The broker keeps its Buy rating and $6.60 target for Smartgroup Corp.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $0.95
If SIQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.04, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TAH as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan previously.

This has resulted in an upgrade for Tabcorp Holdings to Hold from Lighten and a target price increase to $1.00 from 90c.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

In research released on Australia Day last week, Morgan Stanley felt the acquisition of Envase will be conducted at accretive multiples and will accelerate both the geographic reach and breadth of WiseTech Global's software platform.

The broker is expecting accretion from WiseTech selling CargoWise to Envase’s customers.

The platform should be strengthened in North America (location of the majority of Envase’s customers) and in the Road segment, which the analyst noted lags the Air and Sea segments.

The target rises to $64 from $62. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $57.58 Difference: $6.42
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $65.12, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources