Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Hold (3) -

Post analysis of the success and growth in supplier iLottery, Ord Minnett believes there is significant growth potential for Aristocrat Leisure and the US business.

The broker has revised its EPS forecasts for FY24–26 by approximately 3% per annum, reflecting potential upside from Aristocrat Interactive from FY25 and currency fluctuations.

NeoGames is expected to contribute a modest 4% to earnings in FY25.

The Investor Day in Sydney on 26 June, the divestment of non-social casino Pixel United assets, are viewed as potential further positives for the company.

The target is unchanged at Hold with a $52 target price.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $49.01 Difference: $2.99
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.83, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Reinstates coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS reinstates coverage of Aristocrat Leisure after a year of restriction with a Buy rating and $56 target price, up from $44.20 as at May 2023.

The broker highlights the company's strengths, and it continues to lead in its core business, with strong potential for market share gains in North American gaming. UBS forecasts North America slot revenue to grow at a compound 3.1% rate over the next five years.

Consolidation of NeoGames post acquisition and management's upgraded 1H24 guidance have boosted the broker's confidence in the company's earnings profile and growth.

UBS' EPS forecasts have been upgraded by 10% and 13% for FY24 and FY25. Buy rating with a $56 target price. 

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $49.01 Difference: $6.99
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.83, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett dives into the five-year earnings record for ARB Corp and highlights the consistent return on capital employed (ROCE), which increased from 17.2% in FY19 to 17.4% in FY24, significantly above the estimated cost of capital at 10%.

The broker expects further improvement in returns driven by sales growth, particularly from higher export sales, moderation in capital expenditure, and normalisation of inventory levels.

Some of the drivers include new vehicle sales in Australia, accelerating store investment, recovery in export sales in 2H24, and benefits from new and existing OEM contracts, Ord Minnett stresses.

Buy rating and $44 target unchanged.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $38.20 Difference: $5.8
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.48, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett forecasts Bapcor will achieve a return on capital employed (ROCE) of 7.2% in FY24, below the company's cost of capital of around 10%. This is a fall from the ROCE of 10.1% generated in FY19.

Management is targeting a 12% ROCE in FY25, as part of its Better than Before transformation program.

The broker expects additional cost reduction initiatives, along with benefits from the investment in management's transformation program, will combine to improve returns in the medium-term.

The Hold rating and $5.40 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $0.36
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAJ as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter assesses Capitol Health post the merger proposal with Integral Diagnostics ((IDX)), which offers a premium and is likely to succeed with board support.

The broker points to a decline of –2.6% year-over-year in GP attendance performance, driven primarily by Telehealth and Phone GP services, although face-to-face visits are on the rise.

Diagnostic imaging services and benefits have shown solid growth, with benefits maintaining double digits for the second consecutive month.

Bell Potter notes the merger is expected to close by late 2024.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price rises to $0.326 from $0.29.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.021
If CAJ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CCX as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Post the announcement of the divestment of the US business, Avenue, and a capital raising of approximately $23m for City Chic Collective, Bell Potter reconsiders the investment outlook.

The analyst calculated the asset sale results in a around -40% reduction in the business topline, impacting profit estimates.

Adjusting for the change, Bell Potter lowers earnings forecasts with the company now requiring more than 5% total revenue growth to break even on an EBITDA basis in FY25. 

A&NZ is also challenging with online segment underperforming, Bell Potter states, although there is some positive momentum in US partners' growth.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy, and the target price slashed to 20c from 62c.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.08
If CCX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 235.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Sell (5) -

Collins Foods, earlier this morning, released FY24 finanials and Citi, upon first glance, believes net profit has missed consensus by circa -4% with higher corporate costs and higher net interest to blame.

The final dividend of 15.5c marginally beat the 15.3c forecast.

Today's release also highlighted rollout challenges persisting in the Netherlands, but the rollout in Australia is also weaker-than-expected, the broker points out.

There was also an unexpected -$1.7m impairment relating to KFC Europe while the analysts state corporate costs at $33.5m proved 5% higher than anticipated.

It appears the start of FY25 has taken place in rather disappointing fashion and then there's bird flu which Citi identifies as a potential black swan event on the horizon.

Sell. Target $10.60.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: $1.28
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.13, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

UBS, upon first glance of today's FY24 release by Collins Foods, takes the view the result is better-than-feared and, with the share price down -25% from January, expects a positive response.

While the first seven weeks of FY25 don't look flash, the broker again believes it is still better-than-feared. Margin pressure is expected to persist across the group in FY25.

Neutral rating. Target $10.95.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: $1.63
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.13, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTT as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

While earnings (EBITDA) guidance for the second half of 2024 was -62% below expectations, Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Cettire with a Buy rating and $2.60 target price.

Management attributed the earnings miss to "aggressive competitor clearance", suggesting to the broker a temporary setback. Nonetheless, the broker awaits evidence these recent issues are indeed temporary.

The analyst lowers the FY25 earnings forecast by approximately -79% to reflect the continuation of cyclical issues. If they are proven to be cyclical, investors will be currently paying a very cheap price for a stock growing very strongly, highlights Ord Minnett.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $1.465
If CTT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CWY as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights the Cleanaway Waste Management acquisition of Melbourne-based Citywide Waste for -$110m, which adds strategic value by internalising key supply routes, the broker believes.

The broker views the acquisition positively with improved earnings visibility and management securing new market work. 

Earnings forecasts have been adjusted by the analyst with EPS changes of 3% and -3%, for FY24 and FY25.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $3.15 from $3.10 post the acquisition. 

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.4
If CWY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management's positioning in Melbourne has been solidified, notes Macquarie, after management agreed to acquire waste and recycling assets from Citywide Waste for -$110m.

The acquisition secures a second transfer station in Melbourne to feed into the company's Melbourne Regional Landfill, explains the analyst.

The transaction, which is fully debt funded, will add to management's existing $450m EBIT ambition by FY26, points out the broker.

Outperform. The target slips to $3.15 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.4
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

The analyst at Macquarie has visited both the open pit extensions at Cowal and the next orebody development at Northparkes. Upon return, long-term production estimates at Cowal were slightly raised, but the 5-year growth capex outlook also doubled.

After increasing capex assumptions for the E22 SLC and Cowal Open Pit Continuation Project, the broker's target falls to $4.10 from $4.30. The Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.56
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.09, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

The prospect of a sharp turnaround for Imdex in FY24 is highly unlikely, according to Citi, as industry exploration levels have remained subdued in May. There is a risk of current weakness flowing through to majority of FY25, suggest the analysts.

While April and May junior financing are encouraging, the broker would like to see this momentum sustained before turning more
positive.

The Neutral rating and $2.00 target are retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LGI as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has initiated coverage on LGI with a Buy rating and a $3.60 price target. 

The broker identifies LGI as an efficient company with strong ESG credentials and highlights it can grow its market share with 30-40 identified sites in the pipeline.

LGI possesses competitive advantages such as a lower cost base, higher biogas extraction, and battery rollouts enhancing site efficiencies and has won major contracts like Bingo’s Eastern Creek site, notes the analyst.

Shaw and Partners emphasises the company is also well-positioned to gain from volatile electricity prices with its battery strategy, aiming for a 47MW roadmap driven by battery deployment.

Buy rating with a $3.60 target price.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.59
If LGI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNW as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS has initiated coverage on Light & Wonder with a Neutral rating and a price target of $162.00. 

The broker highlights the company's notable progress in its turnaround strategy, showing significant improvements in portfolio rationalisation, de-gearing, and consolidation of social slots. 

UBS stresses the turnaround from losses in FY19/FY20 to over US$500m in net profit forecast for FY24, but cautions challenges remain in growing the North American slot market share and revenue to reach the FY25 targeted EBITDA of US$1.4bn. 

The share price has risen 50% over the last year and the analyst sees limited upside from current levels. Neutral rating and $162 target.

Target price is $162.00 Current Price is $154.70 Difference: $7.3
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $165.00, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MTO as Hold (3) -

Morgans re-assesses the outlook for Motorcycle Holdings post a weaker-than-expected trading update for 2H24 where managements attributed the change to challenging consumer conditions and escalating costs.

The analyst accordingly has adjusted earnings forecasts downwards with FY24 to FY25 EPS estimates lowered by -18% and-33%, respectively.

Morgans sustains a cautious stance on demand for the company's products under a softer economic backdrop.

Hold rating unchanged. Target price cut to $1.40 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.35
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Following a further review of FY24 results, Citi retains its Neutral rating and $4.00 target for Metcash. The profit forecast is raised by 9% in FY25 after incorporating recent acquisitions and after allowing for higher interest costs.

A summary of Citi's research on the day of the result was as follows:

Upon inital assessment, Citi believes Metcash's FY24 EBIT beat its own forecast, and consensus, by some 2% with Food and Liquor doing the heavy lifting.

The final dividend of 8.5c falls short of the 10c expected, but also: sales growth excluding the freshly acquired Superior Foods was flat for the first seven weeks of the fresh financial year, and that's weaker than anticipated.

Hardware sales are down excluding the benefit of acquisitions, the analysts note. All in all, a challenging start into FY25 it seems, Citi concludes.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.31
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Outperform (1) -

FY24 results for Metcash revealed softer Hardware sales than Macquarie was expecting, and management noted a "rapid slowing in builder confidence". Total Tools sales for the first seven weeks of FY25 were down by -1.9% on the previous corresponding period.

The rapid (but profitable) growth of the Total Tools stores is dragging on the overall margin, as the stores are lower margin than pure franchisee fees, explains the broker. This growth is still considered to be a positive outcome.

The Outperform rating is maintained and the target reduced to $4.20 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.51
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Metcash reported FY24 results which showed group revenue of $18.2bn and margins at 2.7%, both in line with consensus, Morgan Stanley observes.

Notably, the broker states, hardware was the key area of weakness, with like-for-like sales down -3.8%, for the trade division and total tools sales down -2.3%. 

Food and Liquor provided an offset, the analyst highlights, with total supermarket revenue (ex-tobacco) up 4.7% year-on-year.

Management's FY25 trading update revealed continued weakness in hardware, with group sales flat year-on-year (ex-Superior Foods). 

Morgan Stanley trims FY25 and FY26 earnings estimates by -3% due to lower hardware sales and margins.

The target price is lowered to $3.83 from $4.05 and the Equal-weight rating unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.83 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.14
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett believes Metcash represents an attractive opportunity given the long-term opportunities in Hardware, and upgrades its rating to Buy from Accumulate following a transfer of research coverage. A $4.30 target is set, up from $4.00.

The company is well-positioned for a potential upturn, suggests the broker, following the slowdown in housing activity over the past year and a half.

During FY24, sales growth excluding tobacco rose by 4.7%, and recent trends in volume growth are encouraging, according to the analyst. The Liquor sector also performed well.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.61
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MXI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett forecasts MaxiPARTS will generate a return on capital employed (ROCE) of  7.7% in FY24, below its cost of capital, driven in part by recent acquisitions which are yet to contribute for a 12-month period.

The broker expects this ROCE measure will improve in the medium-term driven by a combination of higher operating margins and improved asset turn. The latter will be assisted by a full year contribution from recent acquisitions (Independant Parts/Forch Brisbane).

The Buy rating and $2.85 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.985
If MXI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Origin Energy is uniquely placed to benefit from the emerging trend of enery market volatility, suggests Citi, with legacy gas contracts, booked pipeline capacity and a fleet of open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs).

Origin is also investing in utility scale batteries and a virtual power plant (VPP). The latter will enable Origin to manage its customers’ appliances to control their load in a more efficient way.

These assets allow not only capture arbitrage but also mean Origin can over-earn in the semi-regulated retail market due to increasingly competitive energy procurement costs, explains the broker.

Citi initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $12 target.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.34
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.41, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Subject to Fission Uranium Corp shareholder approval, Paladin Energy will acquire the company, thereby gaining access to the Patterson Lake South (PLS) project. 

Citi considers the transaction is advantageous and creates an impressive production pipeline for the merged group.

PLS is a planned underground mine in Canada’s Athabasca with 130mlbs of resources and first production expected in 2029, explains the broker.

The combined group would become the third-largest resource endowment (544mlb attributable) of a listed uranium corporation, observes Citi.

Target price $17. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $13.24 Difference: $3.76
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.44, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as No Rating (-1) -

Paladin Energy shareholders will own around 76% of the combined company if the acquisition of Fission Uranium Corp is completed.

The target's Patterson Lake South (PLS) project would expand Paladin's scale, and allow sequencing growth beyond Langer Heinrich, explains the broker.

The feasibility study indicates an around 10-year mine-life, with production of 9.1Mlbs p.a. (from 2029) and 93.7Mlb of mineral reserves (U3O8), notes the analyst.

Macquarie is currently under research restriction for Paladin Energy and provides no rating or target.

Current Price is $13.24. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $16.44, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Paladin Energy announced a $1.253bn acquisition of Canadian Fission Uranium Corp, Morgan Stanley notes.

Fission's Patterson Lake South project is more advanced, higher grade, and lower cost than Paladin's Michelin project. 

Completion is targeted for September 2024, the analyst states, and will allow for Fission shareholders to own 24% of Paladin, as part of the deal with a dual listing, including the Toronto stock exchange.

Morgan Stanley states the company’s Langer Heinrich production remains on track and is expected to reach targeted capacity by FY26. The combined entity could produce around 15mlb p.a. or circa 12% of global supply by FY29.

The broker's target remains at $16.65. Overweight rating with potential to become a global uranium stock. Industry view: Attractive

Target price is $16.65 Current Price is $13.24 Difference: $3.41
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.44, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PME as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Formerly, Ord Minnett was white labeling research on Pro Medicus from Morningstar and had a Sell rating rating and $34.50 target price.

Now, the broker is undertaking its own research and raises the target to $120 and upgrades by two ratings notches to Hold from Sell.

Apart from the unprecedented $245m in contracts so far in FY24, the analyst sees potential for further contract wins and upcoming renewals, along with potential upside via mergers and acquisitions.

The contract with Baylor Scott & White Health, the largest in the company's history, underscores the company's potential in markets beyond academics, highlights Ord Minnett. These markets include Integrated Delivery Networks, the largest market segment.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $141.15 Difference: minus $21.15 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $105.50, suggesting downside of -25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Citi anticipates multiple sources of synergies from the proposed Myer ((MYR) takeover of Premier Investments' apparel brands.

Shareholders in Premier may now participate in upside from both the international expansion of Peter Alexander and Smiggle plus domestic synergies, highlights the broker.

The analysts also note there are four distribution centres in West Melbourne for the combined group that would be in line for a network consolidation, thereby creating synergies.

A Buy rating and $36 target are maintained for Premier Investments.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.00 Difference: $4
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.20, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -

Premier Investments has received an indicative proposal from Myer ((MYR)) to merge Myer and Premier's apparel brands which include Just Jeans, Jay Jays, Portmans, Jacqui E and Dotti.

Morgan Stanley now sees upside risk to its apparel valuation for Premier from synergies derived in such areas as rent, vertical penetration, fixed costs and loyalty programs.

Myer would acquire Premier's apparel brands in exchange for the issue of new shares in Myer.

The Overweight rating and $39.50 target are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $32.00 Difference: $7.5
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.20, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades its rating for ResMed to Neutral from Buy and lowers the target to $30 from $36. Recent tirzepatide Surmount study data indicate GLP-1's are a viable treatment option for the 70% of the obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) patient population that are obese.

Assuming half of these patients see disease remission, the broker explains it could mean an around -35% decline in total addressable market (TAM) for CPAP.

However,  the analysts consider this scenario highly unlikely given the adherence to GLP-1s for weight loss is circa 50% after 12 months.

A TAM decline of around -15% over FY26-28 is assumed by the broker, resulting in forecast ResMed revenue growth over FY26-28 of 4%, 3% and 2%, respectively, down from 6%, 4% and 2% previously.

The study showed between 40-50% of patients on tirzepatide had OSA remission. Citi believes CPAP therapy will continue to be prescribed along with GLP-1s, at least at the start of treatments.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.74 Difference: $2.26
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.53, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDF as Equal-weight (3) -

Following Steadfast Group's investor day, Morgan Stanley is more confident in the multi-year growth opportunity in the US market and upgrades forecasts by between 1.5-3%.

Management also identified potential to acquire $435m in earnings (EBITA) from its current Australasian Network in trapped capital, assuming 30% margin and 20% commission.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and increases the target to $6.17 from $6.10. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.17 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $0.18
If SDF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SDF as Hold (3) -

Following both a trading update last week and yesterday's investor day, Ord Minnett raises EPS estimates for Steadfast Group by 2% in FY24 and FY25, and by 4% for FY26.

The broker forecasts stronger organic revenue growth, with further upside from acquisitions and margin expansion. The company’s prospects for structural growth extend beyond the next 3-5 years, suggests the analyst.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target rises to $6.95 from $6.85.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $0.96
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDF as Buy (1) -

Post the Steadfast Group investor day, UBS highlights the company’s growth outlook remains intact, with at least a decade of domestic M&A potential.

The analyst dismisses the market concerns about a shrinking acquisition runway with management pointing to a further circa $435m in accretive earnings domestically via M&A, equating to around 80% of the current profit base. 

The US expansion is progressing slower than expected, with management focusing on the US$6bn insurance market

UBS has lifted FY24/FY25 EPS forecasts by 1-2%, reflecting upgraded FY24 guidance and further investment potential in FY25. 

Buy rating and $6.70 target unchanged.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $0.71
If SDF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie retains its Neutral rating for Star Entertainment due to earnings uncertainty after higher costs have again impacted profitability.

Costs have risen due to remediation and transformation activities, explains the broker, adding management neither quantified these costs nor provided clarity on what is permanent versus temporary.

The target falls to 45c from 50c due to the broker's earnings downgrades and a higher assumed risk-free rate, partly offset by lower maintenance capex. Neutral.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SGR as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

It is hard for analysts at Morgans to hide yet their chagrin at another "disappointing" trading update from Star Entertainment for 4Q.

The broker stresses the decline in premium gaming revenue down -16.5% across all properties, notably impacting The Star Gold Coast (-22.6%), Treasury Brisbane (-18.2%), and The Star Sydney (-13.2%). 

Earnings forecasts are re-adjusted with EBITDA for FY24 now expected between $165-180m, a -9% decrease for the analyst's estimates, and FY25 EPS estimates are reduced by -45%. 

One bright spot is the appointment of CFO Neale O’Connell as interim CEO, the broker suggests. Hold rating and target lowered to 50c from 65c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.03
If SGR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Star Entertainment has guided to FY24 EBITDA some -7% to -15% below consensus forecasts, UBS observes.

The decline in earnings is driven by weak performance in premium gaming rooms, while main gaming floor revenue showed some resilience.

The broker stresses ongoing risks from regulatory changes, soft consumer sentiment, and a slower-than-expected tourism recovery while the upcoming opening of Queen’s Wharf Brisbane is seen as a potential positive catalyst.

UBS downgrades earnings forecasts by -4% and -3% for FY24 and FY25.

Neutral rating maintained, the target lowered to 50c from 52c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.03
If SGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SNL as Accumulate (2) -

In a review of the investment thesis for Supply Network, Ord Minnett forecasts the return on capital employed (ROCE) metric will  improve to 25.7% in FY24 (well above cost of capital) from 21.8% in FY19.

A key feature has been management's ability to achieve strong revenue growth, whilst maintaining tight control of operating
expenses and capital expenditure, explains the broker.

Ord Minnett expects Supply Network will maintain its sector leading returns. The Accumulate rating and $22.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $22.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SNL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Neutral (3) -

Strike Energy has submitted an application to the AEMO for the award of capacity credits and network access to support a stand-alone development proposal at South Erregulla.

The company intends to construct and operate a fully integrated 85MW peaking gas power plant with a target final investment decision by November this year, explains Macquarie.

The broker makes EPS forecast upgrades in outer years as the power plant comes online, which moves forward South Erregulla first gas to the December quarter of 2026.

The Neutral rating and 22c target are retained.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating for Telstra Group but lowers the price target to $4.20 from $4.25 due to restructuring costs impacting earnings forecasts, by -1% in EBITDA for FY24/FY25.

The company plans to lay off up to -2,800 staff, incurring -$200-250m in restructuring costs, the analyst notes.

Due to the strong market position and potential InfraCo sales, Bell Potter remains positive on Telstra Group.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.58
If TLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Add (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates has reiterated FY24 guidance and is anticipating mid-to-high single-digit growth in earnings before interest and tax in FY24, excluding contributions from the Daou acquisition in 2H24, Morgans observes.

Daou is projected to contribute approximately US$24m in earnings.

The company also provided an upbeat forecast for Penfolds, notes the broker, with expected circa 15% earnings growth in FY24 and 15% annual growth over FY26/27, bolstered by the removal of tariffs on Australian wine in China.

Add rating and $15.03 target unchanged. Morgans expect the positives to outweigh the macro headwinds domestically.

Target price is $15.03 Current Price is $12.42 Difference: $2.61
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.78, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Buy (1) -

While hotel price forecasts are being downgraded for the first time since the pandemic, Citi still expects Webjet to outperform through 2024.

Yesterday, management provided an update on the upcoming separation of WebBeds and Webjet B2C. The demerger, if pursued, will be implemented via a demerger of Webjet B2C and be effected by way of an in special dividend and capital reduction.

The broker estimates the stand alone business is worth $48m in EBITDA or between $300-350m in enterprise value.

The Buy rating and $10.70 target are retained.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $8.81 Difference: $1.89
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -

Webjet announced the details of the de-merger of the business-to-consumer (B2C) division, which is expected to complete in 2024, following a shareholder meeting in September, notes Morgan Stanley.

The company initially grew as a B2C business but faced market-size constraints, leading to offshore expansion and other strategies of varying success, including hotels.

Post de-merger, both business-to-business (B2B) and B2C will be net cash positive with the $250m convertibles to remain with B2B, the broker highlights.

Equal-weight rating. The target remains at 9.30 Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.81 Difference: $0.49
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources