Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AFG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes lodgements rebounded in the June quarter, up 15.6% sequentially, yet this was affected by competition with the mix continuing to shift away from higher margin "AFG Home Loan" product. Total residential settlements are expected to decline -9.7% in FY23.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating, believing Australian Finance Group will face earnings pressure in the current market. Target is steady at $1.61.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

Today's release of Ansell's statutory FY23 EPS guidance included a 4% beat versus consensus, but merely in line with the forecast by UBS. 

FY23 revenue guidance, however, is a miss versus the broker and consensus forecasts on lower healthcare sales and industrial sales.

The broker, in an initial response to today's release, suspects lower costs may have arisen due to lower employee incentive payments, which management noted was a one-off.

In line with the analyst's Neutral thesis, there were ongoing 2H swings in demand.

Guidance for FY24 includes a newly announced major productivity program, resulting in slowing production, and lower spending on IT as well as a reduced headcount.

If the analyst holds other major estimates (including sales) unchanged, the broker's FY24 forecast for adjusted EPS would fall towards the top end of the FY24 guidance range, which is -36% adrift of consensus. 

Due to prevailing uncertainty prior to today's company-hosted conference call, the broker can appreciate investors lack of enthusiasm for the stock in reaction to the update.

Target $30. The broker makes no forecast changes, at this stage.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.77 Difference: $2.23
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.61, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Coal volumes have sustained a positive trend with monthly exports improving and, while it is early in the recovery, Macquarie notes June volumes were much closer to long-term averages. This bodes well for FY24 onwards, especially with drier weather on the horizon.

Bulk haulage in WA appeared to have had a strong quarter, with iron ore volumes up 7% and grain haulage breaking previous records.

The key issue, from a financial perspective, is when Aurizon Holdings will lift the payout ratio back towards 100%, with the broker calculating this can ramp up from FY25 as leverage falls to historical levels.

Target is raised to $4.12 from $4.05 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $4.12 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.12
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AZS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter assesses further excellent drilling results after Azure Minerals announced two more 100 metre lithium intersections at the 60%-owned Andover Project.

The results highlight to the analyst potential for Andover to host significant concentrations of higher-grade mineralisation, relative to the broker's current Notional Development Scenario (NDS) grade of 1.2% Li2O. It's felt Andover could support a Tier-1 operation.

The Speculative Buy rating and $3 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $1.37
If AZS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BC8 as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has gained confidence the mine life for the Paulsens Gold project (if restarted) will extend beyond the initial three-year mine-plan, as the latest underground drilling shows a down plunge extension for mineralisation.

The analyst's forecasts incorporate a five-year life, and every additional year in the broker's forecast model adds around 6cps to its Black Cat Syndicate valuation.

The Buy rating and 83c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.4
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COF as Add (1) -

Prior to its FY23 result release on August 17, Centuria Office REIT has announced revaluations for 70% of its portfolio. Cap rates have risen by 25bps and values have fallen by -4.4% on a like-for-like basis.

Morgans notes FY24 guidance will be announced at the FY23 result, and FY23 guidance has been left unchanged by management.

Given the REIT is trading at a -30% discount to net tangible assets, the broker feels near-term uncertainties have been incorporated in the share price. Uncertainties include: negative office sentiment and expectations for further cap rate expansion. 

The analyst's target falls to $1.93 from $2.19 on a number of forecast changes including higher interest costs and property expenses. Also, a loss of income is accounted for given a recent asset sale. Add.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.505
If COF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

ARGX announced positive top-line data for its ADHERE study of Vyvgart Hytrulo in CIDP patients, in case you were wondering. The study met its primary end point.

In short, this offers a competitive risk to CSL, but Morgan Stanley sees that risk as manageable.

Overweight and $325 target retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $325.00 Current Price is $258.82 Difference: $66.18
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $328.17, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Argenx has announced a positive top-line outcome from the phase 3 Adhere study evaluating subcutaneous efgartigimod in adults with CIDP.

More detailed data is expected at a future medical conference and UBS suspects the question is now about what a launch will look like.

The broker calculates, if every possible suitable patients switched away from immunoglobulin, a worst-case scenario would mean a -3.3% hit to the top line for CSL. Still, UBS doubts this will be the case.

Buy rating retained. Target price is $340.

Target price is $340.00 Current Price is $258.82 Difference: $81.18
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $328.17, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DDR as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS expands its coverage of emerging companies and initiates on Dicker Data with a Neutral rating and $8.40 target. The company is a distributor of hardware and software IT products in Australasia.

The broker's analysis suggests the commercial IT distribution market should grow at 5-7% per annum and the company can continue to outperform, given a consistent track record of gaining share and an ability to create new categories.

While operating leverage is typically limited, given a highly variable cost base, the broker expects margins will increase to 3.6% in FY25 from 3.4% in FY22.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $8.29 Difference: $0.11
If DDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS observes valuation multiples for the real estate sector are trading in line with historical averages, given the market's confidence in double-digit yield growth into FY24 and underpinned by recent price increases.

The main issue is whether volumes will grow in FY24 amid any consequent impact on the depth uptake for Domain Holdings Australia.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy, believing at current levels the market is adequately pricing in a step up in yield growth to average 15% per annum over FY24-25, as property market conditions normalise. Target is raised to $4.00 from $3.75.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.17
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Buy (1) -

The $33m transaction value for DroneShield's newly announced US government contract is nearly double the company 2022 revenue, highlights Bell Potter. The contract is for equipment, as well as a multi-year warranty and software subscriptions.

The broker describes the win as a "business defining contract", which increases the current order backlog to a record $62m, along with a sales pipeline of over $200m across more than 80 opportunities.

Bell Potter raises its EPS forecasts for 2023-25 and lifts its target to 45c from 40c. Buy.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.135
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Outperform (1) -

Victoria has announced reforms to gambling regulations, introducing pre-commitment levels, shorter trading hours and load limits. Macquarie observes mandatory precommitment levels and non-cash play are the larger impacts over the longer term.

Gambling regulation appears to be tightening nationally and this is a major profit driver for Endeavour Group's hotels division. Still, the broker asserts alcohol is a resilient category and a key staple in the face of a slowing consumer economy.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $6.50 from $6.90.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.86
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Underweight (5) -

It will take time to implement the Victorian govenment's new gaming reforms given the complexity of the changes, Morgan Stanley notes. Mandatory pre-commitment, carded play, and changes to load limit will be introduced subject to consultation with the industry.

There are now significant moving parts driving potential hotel earnings risk to Endeavour Group, the broker warns. With NSW, VIC and TAS (around 50% of Endeavour's gaming fleet) now looking at industry-wide reforms, Morgan Stanley sees the risk to medium term earnings as intensifying.

Underweight retained. Target falls to $5.80 from $6.20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.16
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Regulatory risk is now heightened, observes Morgans, after the Victorian government announced reforms to the electronic gaming industry. The aim of the reforms is to reduce gambling related harm and money laundering across the state.

The timing of the reforms remains unknown. In the event Endeavour Group's earnings in Victoria are reduced by -50%, the analyst predicts FY25 group earnings (EBIT) would fall by -5-6%.

No material changes are made to the broker's earnings forecasts at this stage, but the price earnings-based target falls to $5.87 from $7.30 on the increased risk, and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add.

Target price is $5.87 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.23
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects the proposed gambling restrictions announced by the Victorian government will weigh on Endeavour Group's long-term earnings but the impact on the intrinsic value of the stock will be less severe than the market anticipates.

The broker estimates a combined decline in earnings, given NSW is likely to follow suit, is a relatively moderate -7% from FY25. The company's larger retail segment, accounting for around 60% of earnings, is unlikely to be affected by changes in gambling regulation.

Accumulate rating and $6.10 target maintained.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.46
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Victoria's government has made changes to gambling regulations including mandatory pre-commitment levels and card-based play. Load limits of machines are to be reduced to a maximum of $100 and venues to sustain reduced opening hours.

UBS notes the timing of implementation is uncertain as it is to be determined post consultation and Endeavour Group is expected to participate.

The broker notes the announcement from Victoria is a reminder of the regulatory risk around gaming and follows the announcements in Tasmania while cashless gaming trials will commence soon in NSW. Neutral rating and $6.75 target maintained.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $1.11
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EGL as Buy (1) -

A trading update by Environmental Group revealed management's expectation for FY23 underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $6.6m, which is around 10% ahead of Bell Potter's forecast.

Management noted a "particularly pleasing" Q4 work rate, with strong performances across ongoing services/projects and only a minor
contribution from the Airtight acquisition in May.

The analyst suggests most, if not all, of the company's divisions are performing ahead of expectations and raises EPS forecasts across FY23-25. The Buy rating is unchanged, the target rises to 33c from 32c and the company continues to be a top pick for Bell Potter.

Note: The broker awaits FY23 results to ascertain if an element of the company’s larger project pipeline was front-ended into FY23.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.11
If EGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses GrainCorp has "infrastructure-like" qualities and believes it appropriate to value the stock in part on asset replacement value.

The probability of an El Nino formation for the rest of 2023 and dry conditions over July-September provide a headwind for winter crop production in 2023/24 following three record years.

Outside of seasonal conditions, the main focus for investors is growth options and capital returns, given a strong balance sheet.

Hence, asset replacement costs signal to the broker a significant gap between the share price and intrinsic value, providing support for valuation.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $10.13 from $9.08.

Target price is $10.13 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $2.41
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Neutral (3) -

Hastings Technology Metals continues with early construction work at Yangibana and securing debt financing agreements for stage 1 would be the main near-term catalyst, in Macquarie's view.

The company has recently announced a non-binding offtake agreement with Neo Performance Materials to supply 25,000tpa of concentrate from the first quarter of 2025.

At this stage, Macquarie assesses the economics for stage 2 are marginal, using its rare earth forecasts. Capital raising assumptions are lowered and further equity dilution results in a -7% cut to the target to $1.30. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.02
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi had expected a non-cash impairment of -$410m against Western Areas' assets. The broker makes no changes to its original stance immediately after yesterday's announcement, which was expressed as follows:

Citi reduces its net asset value for the Cosmos mine by -$300m due to higher capex and opex estimates and lowers its target to $16.30 from $16.80. The Neutral rating is retained.

The broker was surprised by the -$880-980m non-cash impairment revealed by management for the Western Areas assets, which were acquired for -$1.3bn.

The analyst will have to wait until December, when external consultants will review the mine plan and capex, before getting a handle on how bad the situation is at Cosmos. 

The Western Area assets are risked at $380m (or 50cps) and the broker ascribes no value to the company's downstream nickel strategy, with a study due by mid-24.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $15.40 Difference: $0.9
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.58, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

IGO will impair the carrying value of its Western Areas assets by -$880-980m at the FY23 result. This is larger than Macquarie expected and equates to a -65-73% reduction in the acquisition book value.

The company has also formally withdrawn guidance for the Cosmos development, released in October 2022. As a result the broker delays production ramped up at Cosmos by one year, which increases pre-production capital costs estimates by 18%.

Updated guidance for Cosmos as well as progress updates at Kwinana present the near-term catalysts. Target is steady at $19. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.40 Difference: $3.6
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.58, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

As previously flagged, IGO has downgraded its book value of the assets acquired as part of its takeover of Western Areas, but a quantum of -75% is a negative surprise for Morgan Stanley, representing some -7.5% of IGO's market cap.

IGO has engaged a group of independent consultants to assist with a comprehensive review of the Cosmos project to better understand risks and opportunities to the current life of mine plan, capital cost estimates and schedule.

Equal-Weight and $14.70 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $15.40 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.58, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Following KMD Brands' recent profit warning, Morgan Stanley has revised forecasts, resulting in a target cut to 90c from $1.05.

The broker sees upside risk to medium term forecasts if KMD can execute on its targets, but suggests the near-term remains
challenging given the uncertain macro backdrop.

Equal-weight retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.015
If KMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NEU as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter maintains its Buy rating for Neuren Pharmaceuticals and increases its target to $17 from $16.50 following the announcement of Q2 sales and Q3 guidance, which were a significant beat against consensus forecasts.

Following first commercial sales in mid-April of trofinetide, brand name Daybue (for Rett Syndrome), sales are ramping up, and the broker now assumes greater patient adoption and additional milestone payments from an expanded licensing agreement.

Acadia (the US distributor) has expanded its licensing agreement to include rest-of-world territories for trofinetide. This includes a US$100m upfront payment to Neuren with a further US$35m and US$15m for first sales in Europe and Japan, respectively.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $13.35 Difference: $3.65
If NEU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes valuation multiples for the real estate sector are trading in line with historical averages, given the market's confidence in double-digit yield growth into FY24 and underpinned by recent price increases.

The main issue is whether volumes will grow in FY24 amid any consequent impact on the depth uptake for REA Group.

UBS also assumes lower costs growth in FY24, of 8%. The broker reiterates a Neutral rating, believing the the valuation is full at current levels while raising the target to $149.10 from $144.10.

Target price is $149.10 Current Price is $149.26 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $126.72, suggesting downside of -14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

A site visit to Oyu Tolgoi confirmed to the analysts at Citi both the project's potential for Rio Tinto and the ongoing challenging nature of navigating Mongolian politics, given the project's importance to the nation.

Despite recent amendments to the Constitution, parliament can still dismiss the government by a simple majority, observes the broker.

According to the analysts, the project ramp-up is on track and management expects unchanged average 2028-2036 copper production of around 500ktpa and a first quartile cost position.

The Buy rating and $123 target are maintained.

Target price is $123.00 Current Price is $117.85 Difference: $5.15
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.17, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Having visited Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi operation in Mongolia, Macquarie highlights the ore from two high-grade pillars will be recovered at a later stage.

The broker suspects it more likely now these will be mined during the Lift 2 process, given they are designed to provide underground structural integrity and production safety.

The broker's base case envisages shareholder loans will be repaid by 2031and once this occurs free cash flow will be distributed to the two shareholders.

Neutral rating and $114 target price retained.

Target price is $114.00 Current Price is $117.85 Difference: minus $3.85 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.17, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Original first oil guidance for Woodside Energy's Sangomar project in Senegal, Africa, was by end of 2023.

After today's update by Woodside Energy, that date is now mid-2024 and capex guidance has increased to -US$4.9-5.2bn (gross) from -US$4.6bn.

Management suggests this new capex guidance will cover the downside case for remediation on the in-construction Sangomar floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit.

From a project execution perspective, the Citi analyst is cautiously optimistic this will be the only downgrade. This confidence is based on no change to Sangomar’s contractor, labour isn’t acutely tight and there is no ordering required for major long-lead items.

However, reservoir risks remain from start-up next year, cautions Citi.Target $33. Neutral.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $35.94 Difference: minus $2.94 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.67, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter makes no material changes to its EPS  forecasts as a result of Whitehaven Coal's June quarterly production report.

However, the broker lowers its thermal coal price outlook for FY24 and FY25 by -25% and -20%, respectively, to US$150/t and
US$130/t. The thermal coal (NEWC) price is currently around US$132/t.

As a result of these forecast changes, Bell Potter's target falls to $6 from $7, while the Hold rating is unchanged.

The company reported Q4 FY23 run-of-mine (ROM) production of 5.1Mt, managed saleable production of 3.8Mt and managed sales of produced coal of 3.9Mt.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Citi confirms it has maintained its Buy rating and $7.80 target after yesterday's initial reaction to Whitehaven Coal's Q4 production report as follows:

Citi highlighted an improvement for realised pricing, with thermal coal sales achieving a 10% premium to the global coal NEWC index for thermal coal.

The broker noted the company achieved high premiums for the supply of high quality coal contracted in a tight supply environment.

Run-of-mine coal production for the quarter came in at the lower end of 18-19.2mt guidance on underperformance at Narrabri, while 16mt of managed coal sales were at the top end of guidance for 15.3-16mt.

Compared to the analyst's unit cost (pre royalties) forecast of $105/t, $103/t is now expected by management.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $0.97
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

June quarter run-of-mine coal and managed sales from Whitehaven Coal were stronger than Macquarie expected, although saleable coal production was below forecasts. FY23 sales of 16mt were at the top end of the guidance range.

FY24 guidance will be provided at the financial results in August 24.

Incorporating the June quarter result means the broker softens its outlook for FY24, while adjusting for the buyback drives mixed earnings changes. FY23 estimates are increased by 3% while FY24 is downgraded by -7%

Target is unchanged at $7.70. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $0.87
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's June quarter run-of-mine production was 6% ahead of Morgan Stanley with costs -2% lower. A strong build of stocks at Maules Creek provides a good set-up into FY24, the broker suggests, as Narrabri also moves to shallower domains allowing more predictable production.

Labour issues appear to be ongoing which need to be monitored, but a positive result on balance in the broker's view.

Overweight and $7.95 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $1.12
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett incorporates the fourth quarter production outcome from Whitehaven Coal, which was within guidance and aligned with expectations. Despite the headwinds going into FY24 the broker retains the stock as a key pick for the thermal coal sector.

The broker also adjusts capital return assumptions for shares bought back during the second half, now expecting a more modest dividend of around 4c a share, in line with reduced commodity prices.

The broker retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $8.40 from $8.60.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $1.57
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Whitehaven Coal reported managed run-of-mine coal in FY23 of 18.2mt and equity sales of 13mt at a June quarter average thermal price of US$177/t, slightly ahead of UBS estimates.

The broker forecasts an increase in managed ROM sales of 22mt with equity sales up 15% in FY24, after FY23 was disrupted by weather and operating issues.

UBS observes the strength of the company's balance sheet means it is better positioned to participate in the BHP Group ((BHP)) sale of Blackwater and Daunia, as binding bids are expected over coming months.

Neutral rating retained. Target is $6.75.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources