Australian Broker Call
January 19, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 01:38 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| AZJ - | AURIZON HOLDINGS | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| GEM - | G8 EDUCATION | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Citi rates AGL as Buy (1) -
AGL and the Victorian government have reportedly negotiated a deal with Alcoa to keep the Portland smelter operating for longer. Despite AGL offering a discount, Citi analysts report the deal is to its benefit because of higher average electricity prices across the state.
Citi analysts are convinced the market is underestimating just how high electricity prices will rise in the years ahead. They are positioned more than 20% above consensus when it comes to AGL's profit forecast for FY19. Buy. Target lifts to $23.80 from $21.42.
Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $22.24 Difference: $1.56
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.98, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 119.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 144.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.3, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AIZ as Neutral (3) -
The broker suggests earnings visibility for Air NZ has now improved given initial headwinds from competing services have now apparently peaked.
While this is good news, rising oil prices are an offset that leaves the broker believing the stock is fairly valued at present.
Neutral and NZ$2.20 target retained.
Current Price is $2.14. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 42.19 cents and EPS of 30.09 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.75 cents and EPS of 30.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of -8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ANZ as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
The broker has upgraded bank forecast earnings to reflect the rising yield environment sparked by Trump's election, but notes locally the banks continue to operate in a slow growth environment. The risk of capital raisings has diminished, but the market has pushed bank share prices higher on that basis.
The broker has thus downgraded its sector recommendation to Neutral. Incorporating the recent divestment of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, ANZ's individual rating has been downgraded to Neutral. Target rises to $31 from $30.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $30.11 Difference: $0.89
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.31, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 218.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.0, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 167.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.5, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates APE as Hold (3) -
The company has updated the market on its guidance for FY17. Morgans points out translating the underlying into statutory effectively means a beat against the previous guidance range.
Minor changes have been made to forecasts. Price target rolls forward to $11.13 from $11.06. Despite sizeable gap between share price and target, the broker sticks with Hold until more clarity is gained from ASIC’s review in car industry finance and insurance practices.
Operationally, soft industry conditions rule the day but acquisitions are expected to contribute materially.
Target price is $11.11 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $2.11
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.92, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.1, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AQG as Outperform (1) -
Alacer's Dec Q production met guidance, reset after the disclosed delay in extracting high grade ore from Marble Pit. That issue has now been resolved, hence 2017 production guidance has been increased, the broker notes. The sulphide project remains on budget and schedule for first production in 2018.
Outperform and $5.30 target retained.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $2.81
If AQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 63.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.5, implying annual growth of -74.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates AZJ as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Aurizon's trading update revealed a strong December, but Citi analysts are quick to point out other months, October and November in particular, were weak if not negative.
Citi is of the view the performance does not justify the current share price. Downgrade to Sell from Neutral. Price target moves to $4.75 from $4.60.
Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 673.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AZJ as Hold (3) -
On stockbroker Morgans assessment, above rail haulage for first half was marginally below forecast, but guidance for full year has remained unchanged.
Due to beneficial impact from higher bond rates in combination with revised forecasts for haulage, estimates have been increased by 3-6% across FY17-FY19. Hold rating retained. Target lifts to $4.88 from $4.45.
Target price is $4.88 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 673.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -
While rising house prices should flow through to Bendelaide's Homesafe income, underlying revenue trends and margins remain under pressure, the broker notes.
While the broker has upgraded forecast earnings, the stock's significant valuation premium to the majors is unjustifiable in the broker's view.
Unerperform retained. target rises to $11.00 from $10.50.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $12.71 Difference: minus $1.71 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting downside of -14.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 87.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of -11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 87.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.3, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BEN as Lighten (4) -
In preview to the upcoming interim report, scheduled to be released on Feb 13, Ord Minnett are anticipating cash earnings of $219m alongside an interim dividend of $0.34/share, representing a 74% payout ratio.
As the stockbroker is clinging on to its $10.50 price target, it is no surprise the Lighten rating remains unchanged.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $12.71 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting downside of -14.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of -11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 86.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.3, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
In the wake of the lifting of the Indonesian nickel export ban, the broker has cut its nickel price forecasts by 12-15% across five years. While Indonesian nickel exports will remain limited, the increase will be significant, the broker suggests.
The broker's BHP earnings forecasts fall 0-3% over the period. Outperform and $31 target retained.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $26.52 Difference: $4.48
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.47, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 95.23 cents and EPS of 177.04 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 162.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 65.72 cents and EPS of 131.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.5, implying annual growth of -10.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -
Authorities in Brazil have suggested Samarco could resume operations earlier than expected and Ord Minnett, currently forecasting early 2018, notes a Samarco restart would be a positive for BHP Billiton and a small negative for iron ore producers in general. At full production, the Brazil JV represents around 1% of global supply. $23 price target and Hold rating retained.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $26.52 Difference: minus $3.52 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.47, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 67.06 cents and EPS of 99.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 162.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 91.20 cents and EPS of 96.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.5, implying annual growth of -10.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
The broker has upgraded bank forecast earnings to reflect the rising yield environment sparked by Trump's election, but notes locally the banks continue to operate in a slow growth environment. The risk of capital raisings has diminished, but the market has pushed bank share prices higher on that basis.
The broker has thus downgraded its sector recommendation to Neutral. CBA's individual Neutral rating is retained. Target rises to $84.00 from $81.50.
Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $82.66 Difference: $1.34
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $77.66, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 551.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 551.5, implying annual growth of -0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 421.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 438.00 cents and EPS of 569.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 561.8, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 418.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -
Looking forward to the release of interim results, scheduled for Feb 10, Ord Minnet is forecasting cash earnings of $4.85bn accompanied by dividend of $1.98/share, representing a 70% payout ratio and flat on the first halves of FY16 and FY15.
Longer term, the analysts anticipate headwinds from de-gearing the wealth operations will persist into FY18. Hold rating retained. Price target $75.
Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $82.66 Difference: minus $7.66 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $77.66, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 420.00 cents and EPS of 544.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 551.5, implying annual growth of -0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 421.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 420.00 cents and EPS of 545.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 561.8, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 418.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CPU as Outperform (1) -
The broker's Outperform rating on Computershare is underpinned by earnings growth assumed from growth initiatives, acquisitions, contract wins and cost-out programs. The broker now adds further tailwinds into the mix, being macro (higher interest rates) and regulatory (lower US tax rate).
Half of the company's rate exposure is hedged but the broker sees potential earnings upside of 10% out to FY19 based on the current forward curve. Target rises to $13.25 from $11.50.
Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $12.37 Difference: $0.88
If CPU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.92, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 45.60 cents and EPS of 72.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.97 cents and EPS of 83.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.6, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates DLX as Sell (5) -
Following updates to FX projections, Deutsche Bank analysts have updated earnings estimates for the Chemicals sector. Both Orica (+4%) and Nufarm (+3-5%) are beneficiaries, but for DuluxGroup the update is relatively neutral.
Sell rating and $5.20 price target remain unchanged on the negligible impact. The analysts explain DuluxGroup’s earnings are sensitive to movements in the AUD, primarily arising from the translation of offshore earnings, particularly from NZ and Asia, as well as impacting input costs.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 33.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -
The broker suggests Downer's upcoming result should provide greater confirmation that earnings are bottoming out as the company transitions to infrastructure from resources, albeit a recovery is more of an FY18 than FY17 story. Downer's share price has run up strongly.
Yet the broker does not see valuation as overly demanding and notes the stock is still trading at a discount to peers Cimic ((CIM)) and Monadelphous ((MND)) on earnings and enterprise value multiples. Outperform retained, target rises to $6.50 from $6.40.
Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.37 Difference: $0.13
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting downside of -16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.80 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of -3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 43.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GBT as Buy (1) -
A number of headwinds remain in place for GBST in the second half, the broker notes. Predominantly, the fall in the GBP will both reduce AUD earnings and threaten project deferrals in the UK.
On the upside, Aegon's technology provides for UK platform market share growth. Buy retained, target falls to $4.35 from $4.50.
Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.35
If GBT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.69, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 43.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 25.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates GEM as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
An apparent stabilisation in margins and a new CEO has Ord Minnett analysts speculating whether this could be the early beginnings of a new chapter for this company? The idea becomes attractive as the current share price doesn't seem to account for any upside, in the analysts' view.
Ord Minnett thinks management's new strategy doesn't require a lot of capital, but if successful, material gains could be made. Not in the share price at present level. A new analyst has resumed coverage and he has upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target rises to $3.78 from $3.25 on increased forecasts.
Target price is $3.78 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.21
If GEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GTY as Buy (1) -
Ahead of the company's result release next month, the broker has cut Gateway forecast earnings to reflect moderating settlements and increased capex on conversions and greenfield developments. Target falls to $2.50 frm $2.75.
The broker retains Buy, remaining positive on the affordable retirement housing thematic.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.37
If GTY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates HSO as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts have updated their modeling. This has resulted in negligible adjustments to estimates. The price target increased by 10c to $2.55.
Updating the model has led to incorporating the continued slow growth trend in hospital spending plus lower interest expense related to the Northern Beaches hospital project. Neutral.
Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.23
If HSO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.10 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
In the wake of the lifting of the Indonesian nickel export ban, the broker has cut its nickel price forecasts by 12-15% across five years. While Indonesian nickel exports will remain limited, the increase will be significant, the broker suggests.
The broker's Independence FY17 earnings forecast falls -57%. An initial target price cut had already been made but the broker has cut further to $4.30 from $4.40. Neutral retained.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.18
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 242.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IPL as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts have since last year held the view we are near the trough in market conditions for the company and they continue to see more evidence to support that thesis.
The analysts observe DAP prices have stabilized while Urea and Ammonia have recovered strongly from their lows. The share price has run hard already, but the analysts think more gains are probable. Buy. Target lifts to $4 from $3.20. Estimates have increased.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $0.44
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 130.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.40 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 26.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -
Updating for revised FX and fertiliser forecasts, the analysts have increased their estimates by 5-11%. The analysts note nitrogen prices have recovered with the urea price up 48% from the 2016 low while the ammonia price is up 19% and the DAP price has also started to recover.
In addition, Deutsche Bank sees positive signs emerging for the explosives businesses as well as the Australian fertiliser businesses. Target price jumps to $4.35 from $3.95. Buy.
Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $0.79
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 130.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 26.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -
Incitec's Louisiana ammonia plant is on track to achieve 80% utilisation in the first 12 months, the broker notes. Fertiliser prices have started the year well on seasonal demand and increased costs and US coal is improving.
Outperform and $3.88 target retained.
Target price is $3.88 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $0.32
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 130.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 26.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MQG as Neutral (3) -
The broker has increased its target on Macquarie to $95 from $85 in the wake of a positive Dec Q activity review.
The broker is nevertheless concerned that exceptional revenue items recently reported, such as specialist fund performance fees and principal investment gains, unlikely offer scope for further upside surprise. Neutral retained.
Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $84.81 Difference: $10.19
If MQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $79.64, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 626.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 611.8, implying annual growth of -6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 410.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 656.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 619.6, implying annual growth of 1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 426.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -
The broker has upgraded bank forecast earnings to reflect the rising yield environment sparked by Trump's election, but notes locally the banks continue to operate in a slow growth environment. The risk of capital raisings has diminished, but the market has pushed bank share prices higher on that basis.
The broker has thus downgraded its sector recommendation to Neutral. NAB's individual Outperform rating is retained. Target rises to $33 from $32.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $30.58 Difference: $2.42
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 186.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.2, implying annual growth of -3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 177.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.7, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 184.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Sell (5) -
Following updates to FX projections, Deutsche Bank analysts have updated earnings estimates for the Chemicals sector. Both Orica (+4%) and Nufarm (+3-5%) are beneficiaries, but for DuluxGroup the update is relatively neutral.
The broker's valuation for Nufarm has increased by 6% to $6.60. The analysts point out Nufarm’s earnings are sensitive to movements in particularly the USD, Euro, GBP and the Brazilian real. Sell rating retained.
Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: minus $2.4 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.07, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 46.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 714.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 54.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORI as Buy (1) -
Following updates to FX projections, Deutsche Bank analysts have updated earnings estimates for the Chemicals sector. Both Orica (+4%) and Nufarm (+3-5%) are beneficiaries, but for DuluxGroup the update is relatively neutral.
On the back of upgraded forecasts, Orica's price target has lifted to $20 from $19.20. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.23 Difference: $1.77
If ORI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.25, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 113.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of -2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 126.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.8, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PDN as Neutral (3) -
Paladin's Dec Q production was down from the Sep Q due to cessation of production at Langer Heinrich in Nov, but better than expected due to a later than assumed cessation. Uranium prices realised were slightly ahead of the broker and costs below.
The broker suggests Paladin is now 100% exposed to spot prices and the company's cash balance is low. Given the impending debt maturity, debt restructure is high priority. A deal should be supported, the broker believes, given insolvency would otherwise result.
A deal would allow Paladin to trade through this period of low prices. Neutral and 9c target retained.
Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.005
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.13, suggesting upside of 56.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
The broker notes a rising equity market helped to boost Perpetual's fund inflows in the Dec Q, however flows remain below the level of the broker's benchmark of 5% plus growth. This needs to improve if the stock is to Outperform, the broker suggests.
Neutral retained. Target rises to $46.30 from $44.80.
Target price is $46.30 Current Price is $47.73 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $46.43, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 251.00 cents and EPS of 261.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.6, implying annual growth of -3.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 255.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 268.00 cents and EPS of 272.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 298.8, implying annual growth of 6.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 273.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -
ResMed is scheduled to update the market on its Q2 performance and Citi analysts are expecting EPS of US$0.69, roughly in-line with consensus of US$0.70.
However, note the analysts, the range in potential outcomes for the full year is rather high due to the launch of new masks. There is also still the legal dispute with Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH)). Target remains $9.93. Rating Buy.
Target price is $9.93 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $1.56
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 37.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.47 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.6, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -
Confidence has grown at Morgan Stanley, with the analysts reporting recent industry diligence supports greater conviction that reimbursement concerns are in the past.
The analysts suggest ResMed could be set for accelerated mask growth from the new F20/N20 series. Morgan Stanley reiterates the Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line. Price target US$70.90.
Current Price is $8.37. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 37.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 41.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.6, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -
In the wake of the lifting of the Indonesian nickel export ban, the broker has cut its nickel price forecasts by 12-15% across five years. While Indonesian nickel exports will remain limited, the increase will be significant, the broker suggests.
The broker's South32 FY17 earnings forecast falls -2%. Target falls to $3.80 from $3.90. Outperform retained.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.99
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.84 cents and EPS of 35.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.95 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of -21.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SBM as Outperform (1) -
A strong Dec Q leaves St Barbara well positioned to hit the top end of FY17 production guidance and the low end of cost guidance, the broker notes.
The company continues to generate strong cash flows despite the lower gold price. This puts St Barbara in the frame for corporate appeal on the one hand and value-add acquisitions on the other, the broker suggests. Outperform and $2.60 target retained.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.25
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of -14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.40 cents and EPS of 38.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 33.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SBM as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank analysts saw an impressive December quarter performance, noting it generated $71m in free cash flow plus driving an upgrade to full year guidance for the gold miner.
The analysts note St Barbara is now in a net cash position. The stock is one of two favourites in the space, together with Evolution Mining ((EVN)). Buy. Target $2.70 (unchanged).
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.35
If SBM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of -14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 33.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SBM as Outperform (1) -
St Barbara again beat the broker's production forecast by a comfortable margin in the Dec Q. Simberi continues to outperform and the Gwalia extension has been approved.
The balance sheet is now cleared and a compelling turnaround story is complete, the broker suggests. Significant free cash flow offers up M&A opportunities but by the same token, St Barbara may itself become a target, the broker believes. Outperform retained, target rises to $2.90 from $2.60.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.55
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of -14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 33.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WBC as Outperform (1) -
The broker has upgraded bank forecast earnings to reflect the rising yield environment sparked by Trump's election, but notes locally the banks continue to operate in a slow growth environment. The risk of capital raisings has diminished, but the market has pushed bank share prices higher on that basis.
The broker has thus downgraded its sector recommendation to Neutral. Westpac's individual Outperform rating is retained. Target rises to $35 from $34.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.43 Difference: $2.57
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.26, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 239.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.4, implying annual growth of -0.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 189.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.1, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 181.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -
Wesfarmers' market update, as well as incorporating higher coal prices, have triggered 7% upgrades to forecasts. Citi analysts acknowledge performance at Coles remains disappointing.
Earnings risk for Coles remains to the downside, in Citi's view, and this is one key reason for the analysts to stick with their Sell rating. The analysts are worried the Coles growth slowdown could lead to market share loss, for the first time since 2009.
Price target moved to $39 (was $38.10).
Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $41.60 Difference: minus $2.6 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 205.00 cents and EPS of 259.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.4, implying annual growth of 616.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 212.00 cents and EPS of 259.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.5, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WES as Sell (5) -
The analysts have used Wesfarmers' guidance for a higher profit contribution from the Resources division to combine with commodity prices and FX updates to update estimates for the years ahead.
The positive impact from the coal operations does not remove the fact that Coles is struggling, point out the analysts. They are anticipating a tough Q2 for the supermarket operations. Sell rating retained. Target unchanged at $38.
Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $41.60 Difference: minus $3.6 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 259.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.4, implying annual growth of 616.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 235.00 cents and EPS of 268.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.5, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WES as Outperform (1) -
Wesfarmers has upgraded Resource division earnings guidance on the back of higher coal prices and the broker has lifted coal price forecasts. Group forecast earnings increases follow.
On the flipside, it appears Woolworths ((WOW)) has outstripped Coles in 2016 Christmas sales, the broker notes, after a very poor 2015 for Woolies and a very strong 2015 for Coles, which was always going to be hard to repeat.
Outperform retained. Target rises to $42.21 from $41.80.
Target price is $42.21 Current Price is $41.60 Difference: $0.61
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $41.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 234.00 cents and EPS of 271.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.4, implying annual growth of 616.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 245.00 cents and EPS of 283.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.5, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WES as Accumulate (2) -
Wesfarmers' Resources division, expected to break-even previously, is now projected to contribute $135–140m to group profits. Analysts at Ord Minnett have incorporated the upgraded guidance, while also cutting forecasts for Coles.
All in all, Accumulate rating remains in place, as well as the $45 price target. Dividend estimate for FY17 has now been lifted to FY18's 215c.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $41.60 Difference: $3.4
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $41.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 262.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.4, implying annual growth of 616.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 268.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.5, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -
Wesfarmers has upgraded earnings guidance for its Resource division thanks to higher coal production and prices. Taking into account house coal price forecast upgrades, the broker has lifted Wesfarmers earnings forecasts by 17% and 8% in FY17-18.
No change to the broker's long term coal price forecast means no change to a $42.10 target, while Neutral retained given slowing earnings growth for Coles.
Target price is $42.10 Current Price is $41.60 Difference: $0.5
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $41.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 246.00 cents and EPS of 276.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.4, implying annual growth of 616.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 229.00 cents and EPS of 270.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.5, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -
It appears Woolworths has outstripped Coles ((WES)) in 2016 Christmas sales, the broker notes, after a very poor 2015 for Woolies and a very strong 2015 for Coles, which was always going to be hard to repeat. But the broker does not see this outperformance as the beginning of a medium term trend.
The competitive battle between the two should continue to depress margin in the second half, the broker suggests. Neutral retained. Target rises to $22.54 from $22.23.
Target price is $22.54 Current Price is $24.30 Difference: minus $1.76 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.31, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 81.50 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 86.10 cents and EPS of 129.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.9, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WSA as Neutral (3) -
In the wake of the lifting of the Indonesian nickel export ban, the broker has cut its nickel price forecasts by 12-15% across five years. While Indonesian nickel exports will remain limited, the increase will be significant, the broker suggests.
The broker's Western Areas FY17 profit forecast falls -74%. The broker also assumes a delay in the proposed Cosmos development. An initial target price cut had already been made but the broker has cut further to $2.80 from $3.00. Neutral retained.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.11
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1335.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 5400.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $22.24 |
| AIZ - | AIR NEW ZEALAND | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.14 |
| ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $30.11 |
| APE - | AP EAGERS | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $9.00 |
| AQG - | ALACER GOLD | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.49 |
| AZJ - | AURIZON HOLDINGS | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.07 |
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.07 | ||
| BEN - | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.71 |
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.71 | ||
| BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $26.52 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $26.52 | ||
| CBA - | COMMBANK | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $82.66 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $82.66 | ||
| CPU - | COMPUTERSHARE | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.37 |
| DLX - | DULUX GROUP | Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.99 |
| DOW - | DOWNER EDI | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.37 |
| GBT - | GBST HOLDINGS | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.00 |
| GEM - | G8 EDUCATION | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.57 |
| GTY - | GATEWAY LIFESTYLE | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.13 |
| HSO - | HEALTHSCOPE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.32 |
| IGO - | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.12 |
| IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.56 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.56 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.56 | ||
| MQG - | MACQUARIE GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $84.81 |
| NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $30.58 |
| NUF - | NUFARM | Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.00 |
| ORI - | ORICA | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $18.23 |
| PDN - | PALADIN | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.09 |
| PPT - | PERPETUAL | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $47.73 |
| RMD - | RESMED | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $8.37 |
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.37 | ||
| S32 - | SOUTH32 | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.81 |
| SBM - | ST BARBARA | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.35 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.35 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.35 | ||
| WBC - | WESTPAC BANKING | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $32.43 |
| WES - | WESFARMERS | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $41.60 |
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $41.60 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $41.60 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $41.60 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $41.60 | ||
| WOW - | WOOLWORTHS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $24.30 |
| WSA - | WESTERN AREAS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.69 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 20 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 15 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 6 |
Thursday 19 January 2017
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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