Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

See yesterday's Report for Citi's initial and expanded view on Aurizon Holdings' full year results.

Today, the broker reacts to the results by raising core profit estimates for FY23-25 by 2%, 4% and 6.5%, respectively, after allowing for softer Coal performance in the short term, growth in Bulk and higher Network Earnings after a regulatory reset.

The Neutral rating is kept, as the low end of FY23 guidance was only in-line with FY22, despite the acquisition of One Rail, explains the analyst. The target increases to $4.17 from $3.81.

Target price is $4.17 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.27
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

The FY22 result for Aurizon Holdings disappointed Macquarie with Bulk growth faltering as loss of contracts lowered volumes and -$10m of one-offs swamped new contracts. Network was considered in-line, while Coal’s positive surprise was offset by weak guidance.

The broker sees risks around growth execution for Bulk and the divestment of East Coast Rail and maintains its Neutral rating and sets a $4.05 target after a period of research restriction.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.15
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley reports Aurizon Holdings's earnings for FY22 of $1,468 are down -1% on the previous comparable period, but 1% ahead of consensus expectations. 

The broker highlights the Network and Coal segment earnings were largely in line with its expectations, but while Bulk costs reduced -83% on the previous comparable period the segment delivered earnings in the second half of $93m, down 38% half-on half given weather impacts and lower volumes. 

Looking ahead, earnings guidance of $1,470-1,550m for FY23 missed Morgan Stanley's expectations by -3%. The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increased to $3.61 from $3.49. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.61 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Add (1) -

After management's first time FY23 guidance at FY22 results, Morgans expects consensus earnings downgrades for Aurizon Holdings.

However, the broker leaves its $4.20 target unchanged with weaker short-term earnings offset by growth in the Network asset base due to higher CPI and lower regulatory depreciation. The Add rating is unchanged.

For the FY22 result, the analyst notes earnings (EBITDA) and the 2H dividend of 10.9cps were close to market expectations, despite a softer Bulk result.

Morgans forecasts assume East Coast Rail is sold for equity value of around $1.1bn.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.3
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Lighten (4) -

Aurizon Holdings' FY22 underlying net profit of $513m was 6% ahead of Ord Minnett’s forecast, while the 21.4cps full year dividend payout (10.9cps interim) was a beat compared to the 20.1cps expected.

While higher mobilisation costs in the Bulk division compressed margins, the analyst highlights strong revenue growth of 9% due to new contracts.

Management guided to earnings (EBITDA) of between $1.47-1.55bn in FY23, which included an inaugural contribution from the newly acquired One Rail Bulk. 

Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating and feels the key to a multiple re-rate resides with greater clarity on the East Coast Rail divestment and greater Bulk earnings. The target rises to $3.40 from $3.35.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

While Aurizon Holdings has delivered an in line full year result, with net profit and earnings per share both beating UBS forecasts by 2%, the broker has noted a few concerns, describing missed expectations from Bulk and Coal and a weak outlook for the latter. 

Despite higher volumes, the company is guiding to lower coal earnings in FY23, with contract resets expected to drag on revenue yield, but the company stated this will be the last major reset from contracts written around ten years ago. UBS expects customers will look to seek discounts when re-contracting.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.75 from $3.95.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers BHP Group's $25/share takeover offer for OZ Minerals is consistent with overall strategy to increase exposure to copper and nickel.

The proposed cash offer of -US$5.8bn would be more than covered by the analyst's forecast for net cash flow of US$6.5bn after shareholder and minority dividends in FY23.

The Outperform rating and $48 target are retained.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $39.12 Difference: $8.88
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

Morgans prefers the easily digestible OZ Minerals acquisition (which is seen as consistent with BHP Group's strategy) over a larger transaction at the top of the cycle. It's felt potential synergies sets BHP Group apart as the most appropriate suitor.

The non-binding indicative offer at $25/share was swiftly rejected by OZ Minerals.

Separately, the analyst reviews BHP Group's 4Q result (3 weeks ago) and lifts 2H opex assumptions for iron ore and copper (and trims coal).

After rolling the valuation model forward, the broker's target falls to $48.40 from $48.50. The 2H dividend payout ratio also falls to 65% from 75%.

Target price is $48.40 Current Price is $39.12 Difference: $9.28
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

The only view not mentioned in yesterday's Report (on Ord Minnett's initial view of BHP Group's bid for OZ Minerals) was the disappointment around how long the bid took. It's felt the opportunity for BHP was clear several years ago.

In terms of gearing levels, the broker notes OZ Minerals could be comfortably acquired, though near-term capital management could be impacted. The Hold rating and $43.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $39.12 Difference: $3.88
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees a consistency between Breville Group's increased shipping volumes into Nth America in the 2H and the company's forecast build in inventory.

In addition, the broker's in-house data show spending on household appliances this year has remained ahead of pre-pandemic levels, though spending is moderating in growth as economic conditions weaken.

The Outperform rating and $23.35 target are retained.

Target price is $23.35 Current Price is $22.11 Difference: $1.24
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.62, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Having recently reiterated its Overweight rating for Breville Group, Morgan Stanley has addressed investor concern, noting while category growth may turn negative in the coming year, it anticipates the company can deliver 8% year-on-year sales growth in FY23.

This compares to 17-25% growth since FY19, but the broker also noted it expects sales growth to return to mid-teens by FY24 supported by global expansion.

Further, the broker is anticipating earnings margins to expand more than 40 basis points in the coming year to 11.5%, but expects Breville Group could pull cost levers such as marketing to allow for earnings growth.

The Overweight rating and target price of $25.00 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.11 Difference: $2.89
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.62, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

With CommBank announcing one-off items that will be included in its second half cash profit to be released later this week, Morgan Stanley notes items will have a -$71m impact on pre-tax earnings.

The broker also highlighted the sale of a 10% stake in Bank of Hangzhou delivered a $516m pre-tax gain for the bank, in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations, with the company retained a 5.6% stake.

The Underweight rating and target price of $82.00 are retained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $102.60 Difference: minus $20.6 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $88.48, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Citi's first take on today's FY22 results for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is: the stock price could react positively to a beat over the consensus expectation.

While FY22 operating EPS of 30.5cpu was in-line with guidance and the consensus expectation, FY23 guidance for 28.0cpu was a 0.7% beat versus consensus and 3.7% above Citi's forecast. The latter beat may be driven by a higher assumed CPI (to be clarified).

The FY22 reported distribution of 30.5cpu was also in-line with guidance and consensus, according to the broker. Strong valuation growth also resulted in the net tangible assets/book value ratio increasing by 4.8% over the December 2021 figure.

The Neutral rating and $4.70 target are retained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.34
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

In an initial review of today's 1H results for Coronado Global Resources, Macquarie notes a -5% earnings (EBITDA) miss versus its forecast, from variances in logistical costs. Net profit also missed by -5%.

The broker highlights net profits still rose 90% half-on-half, and management expects current buoyant coal prices will continue to benefit financials in the 2H.

Operating cash flow of US$431m and capex of -US$91m were in-line with the analyst's forecasts.The half-year dividend of US$19.5cps included a special dividend of US$12cps.

Macquarie maintains its Outperform rating and notes coal prices drive upside, with free cash flow yields remaining above 25% at spot prices from 2023 onwards. The $2.50 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.98
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 58.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades its rating for Domain Holdings Australia to Neutral from Buy as consensus growth expectations for FY23 and FY24 are likely too optimistic. This view takes into account a near halving of house lending over the next two years and double-digit house price declines.

Despite this, the broker upgrades its FY22 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by 3% for stronger 4Q new listing volumes and expects positive momentum into the 1Q of FY23.

As Sydney and Canberra were in lockdowns in the first quarter of FY22, Citi expects Domain to provide a strong upcoming trading update. 

The target falls by -30% to $4.10. REA Group is preferred in the space.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.42
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

In anticipation of Domino's Pizza Enterprises FY22 result due on August 24, Macquarie sees near-term pressures from input cost inflation and customers trending away from at-home consumption as covid wanes.

The broker's target falls to $76.20 from $88.70 due to forecast earnings downgrades and lower peer multiples, which are a reflection of the weaker macroeconomic backdrop. The Neutral rating is maintained. 

Target price is $76.20 Current Price is $71.02 Difference: $5.18
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $87.40, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXC as Add (1) -

FY22 funds from operations (FFO) and DPS for Dexus Convenience Retail REIT were in-line with guidance, and Morgans maintains its Add rating and lowers its target to $3.71 from $3.78.

FY23 dual guidance was for FFO and DPS of 21.2-22cpu compared to the broker's forecast for 23cpu, as higher interest costs weigh.

The broker highlights a near-term focus on divestments for balance sheet flexibility.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.67
If DXC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXC as Accumulate (2) -

FY22 funds from operations (FFO) of 23.1cpu for Dexus Convenience Retail REIT was in-line with the forecasts of Ord Minnett and consensus. However, joint FY23 FFO and DPU guidance of between 21.2-22.0cpu was a miss versus market expectations of 23.7cpu.

While not included in FY23 guidance, management highlighted an increased focus upon asset sales over the period. The broker feels divestments may be uncertain given a slowdown in auction clearance rates for service stations.

The analyst maintains an Accumulate rating and feels the REIT's earnings profile is more resilient than some of its peers, particularly in a downturn, with long leases and strong tenant covenants. The target falls to 3.37 from $3.45.

Target price is $3.37 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.33
If DXC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLS as Outperform (1) -

For Healius, Macquarie incorporates more conservative assumptions for base Pathology and Imaging in FY23, assuming ongoing subdued operating conditions over the 1H of FY23 before recovering in the 2H.

The target falls to $5.00 from $5.10 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $1.04
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has included updates on mined grades, processing and production from IGO into its estimates following the company's strategy day.

Despite the broker's spot valuation for Greenbush climbing to $9.53 per share, Morgan Stanley's asset value declines -23% to $5.33 per share, accounting for higher capital expenditure and costs.

Similarly, capital expenditure and costs see the broker reduce its spot valuation to 81 cents per share for Kwinana, with the asset value declining -55% to 62 cents per share, but the train construction timeline is stepped up.

Updates see the broker's earnings per share estimates decline -3%, -27% and -12% through to FY24. The Underweight is retained and the target price decreases to $9.95 from $10.20. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $11.90 Difference: minus $1.95 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.61, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LFS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie remains cautious on Latitude Group and retains a Neutral rating due to the rising risk of impairments and lower consumer discretionary spend. 

The group announced the sale of Hallmark Insurance for around $20m (a -$30m post-tax loss) freeing up $90m of capital which may be used for organic or inorganic growth, expects the analyst. The target price of $1.30 is unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If LFS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Toll treating at Mineral Resources' Mt Marion mine has been described an earlier-than-anticipated positive by Morgan Stanley, with the broker noting the company has reported an expected US$150-160m earnings benefit in the June quarter. 

With Mineral Resources intending to convert all spodumene to hydroxide, Morgan Stanley has included tolling at Mt Marion and Wodgina to its outlook, driving a 20-30% increase to earnings forecasts through to FY24 and adding $5.70 per share to the broker's base case.

The broker reported iron ore production and shipments were both softer than expected in the quarter despite shipment guidance being met, and average price realisation of 62% missed Morgan Stanley's estimated 70%.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreased to $64.80 from $66.70, reflecting the FY22 result. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $64.80 Current Price is $57.88 Difference: $6.92
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.96, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Megaport's FY22 was pre-announced on large items, but UBS, upon initial glance over today's release, still is impressed by various details provided.

UBS is now of the view Megaport is positioned for an acceleration in growth. The accountancy loss has been accentuated by deferred tax expenses, explains the analyst.

No guidance has been provided. Buy. Target $16.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $8.18 Difference: $7.82
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MYX as Neutral High Risk (3) -

Despite the positive of US FDA approval for Mayne Pharma's generic version of Nuvaring (under the brand name HALOETTE), Citi believes sales of generic Nuvaring are already reflected in market expectations.

The Neutral rating and $0.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If MYX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

UBS, in an initial assessment of National Australia Bank's quarterly update released today, finds the bank has released a "solid" market update, in-line with consensus expectations.

Underlying, the analyst finds NAB's Net Interest Margin (NIM) is in-line with its forecast. Costs only increased by 1%. Opex guidance from the interim results has been reaffirmed.

UBS also notes there are no signs of stress in the bank's mortgage book. Neutral. Target $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $30.71 Difference: $2.29
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.26, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the issuance of US$225m of senior secured notes positions Nickel Industries well to increase ownership in Oracle Nickel to 70% from 30%.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and notes the company is one of the few with growth prospects in the nickel market. The $1.40 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.32
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie is currently on research restriction for OZ Minerals and offers no target or rating.

The broker relays OZ Minerals has rejected the $25/share cash offer by BHP Group.

Current Price is $25.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OZL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans agrees with the board of OZ Minerals in finding the $25/share takeover bid by BHP group undervalues the company and is highly opportunistic. OZ Minerals shares have corrected by around -35% from a 12-month high above $29.

The analyst feels odds favour a higher offer in time, given the solid logic for BHP Group and the potential synergies. 

The broker downgrades its rating to Hold from Add after a share price rally in reaction to the anouncement already incorporates most of the potential upside.

Apart from factoring-in the bid, Morgans makes allowances for 2Q production that was -10% below the broker's expectation, and higher unit costs, as well as lower near-term copper forecasts. The target rises to $25.40 from $23.12.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $25.59 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Accumulate (2) -

See yesterday's Report for Ord Minnett's view on the $25/share takeover bid for OZ Minerals by BHP Group, which resulted in a new target of $27.40, up from $16.00. The rating was also increased to Accumulate from Hold.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $25.59 Difference: $1.81
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RBL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS sees limited near-term downside risk for Redbubble ahead of the company delivering its full year result, and anticipates a result that meets or exceeds expectations would likely be a positive catalyst for the stock. 

The broker points to signs that sales and margin trends could exceed what the market appears to be pricing in, including a 10% base price rise from May and reports from US peers that digital marketing costs have not significantly worsened. 

Given what the broker describes as an "extreme level of investor disinterest" and a valuation implying further downgrades, it sees an attractive risk-reward balance. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $1.60 from $1.45.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.27
If RBL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades its rating for REA Group to Neutral from Buy as consensus growth expectations for FY23 and FY24 are likely too optimistic. This view takes into account a near halving of house lending over the next two years and double-digit house price declines.

Despite this, the broker upgrades its FY22 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by 2% for stronger 4Q new listing volumes and expects positive momentum into the 1Q of FY23.

The target falls to $133.05 from $153.50.

Target price is $133.05 Current Price is $124.02 Difference: $9.03
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.58, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Underperform (5) -

Upon a first glance over today's FY22 financials, it is Macquarie's view that revenue is in-line with forecasts, but costs are slightly higher.

Yield growth, provided for the very first time, points out the broker, was 14% over the year while listings grew by 11%.

Assisted by price increases, Macquarie finds the outlook for REA Group looks "solid".

Alas, Macquarie cannot get past the fact Australian housing, residential in particular, is not looking particularly flash for the year ahead. This view dominates its assessment for REA, and thus the rating remains Underperform. Target $88.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $124.02 Difference: minus $36.02 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $129.58, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has noted despite Sandfire Resources' stock struggling post MATSA deal, the company is now a multi-asset copper player with one of the lowest enterprise value to earnings multiples.

The broker attributed the increase in energy costs at MATSA to share price performance, and expects any improvement to FY23 cost guidance could be a tailwind.

The broker also highlighted Sandfire Resources' implied copper price remains -30% below spot pricing, and that it expects negative free cash flow in the next year given higher capital expenditure for the Motheo project before relatively high free cash flows beyond this. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.60 from $6.45.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.75
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.66, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGF as Outperform (1) -

The availability and affordability of electric vehicles continues to increase and should support volumes for SG Fleet and the other novated lease companies, according to Macquarie.

The broker comes up with this finding after a review that identified 28 electric vehicles under the luxury car tax threshold. A Bill was introduced to parliament in late July to abolish fringe benefits tax on zero-or low-emission vehicles below the luxury car tax threshold.

The Outperform rating and $2.98 target are retained.

Target price is $2.98 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.42
If SGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett retains its Accumulate rating and $4.20 target for Star Entertainment after the opening of Crown Barangaroo.

The broker estimates the current share price more than discounts any worst-case scenarios on FY23 earnings during the opening period, which only allows participation by the top two tiers of players.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $1.32
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Citi only changes its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 slightly in reaction to FY22 results from Suncorp Group, and the Buy rating and $13 target price are unchanged. Price rises and interest rates are expected to expand margins.

The FY22 result was broadly in-line with consensus though business line profit missed by around -$40m, according to the analyst. A one-off tax benefit of $90m on the sale of the Australian life business resulted in an in-line cash profit.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: $1.89
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.11, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Suncorp Group reported FY22 cash earnings of $673m, marginally above consensus, assesses Credit Suisse.

The results showed growth across the consumer and commercial sectors as well as New Zealand.

The broker considers the FY23 guidance for gross written premiums of mid to high single digit as conservative, while margin pressures should be offset by the 9.9% and 4.9% increase in house and for motor rates, respectively.

Credit Suisse reduces the earnings forecasts by -2.5% for FY23 and FY24 to account for margin pressures.

Outperform recommendation maintained and the target price is lowered to $13.70 from $14.09.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: $2.59
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.11, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as No Rating (-1) -

Following FY22 results for Suncorp Group, Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by 5.3% and 6.6%, respectively, due to higher gross written premiums (GWP) and bank lending growth. 

Management reaffirmed FY23 guidance.

The broker is currently on research restriction.

Current Price is $11.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $13.11, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has described Suncorp Group as being at the greatest risk of earnings and dividend volatility among general insurers given its lower reserving outlook, rising claims inflation, higher reinsurance, increasing catastrophe costs and depleted excess capital. 

With Suncorp Group guiding to mid-to-high single digit gross written premium growth in the coming year, the broker notes an improved top line outlook, but with reinsurance costs surging -15-20% Morgan Stanley is anticipating the company will only reach the lower end of its 10-12% margin guidance in FY23.

While acknowledging Suncorp Group has been the best general insurer for managing earnings volatility over the last five years, the broker notes it does not now have the flexibility to manage shareholder returns. The broker reduces its expected dividend payout by -12% to 67% in FY23.

The Underweight rating and target price of $10.20 are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.11, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Add (1) -

Following FY22 results for Suncorp Group, Morgans lifts its FY23-24 EPS forecasts by around 5% largely due to gross written premium (GWP) growth expectations. The Add rating is unchanged due to an attractive dividend yield and inexpensive valuation.

As the analyst was surprised by a larger-than-expected decline in the group's capital level, the valuation falls to $13.70 from $14.00.

Overall, the broker describes the result as a broadly solid underlying performance, with good 2H GWP growth and underlying margin expansion for general insurance.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: $2.59
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.11, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Following FY22 results for Suncorp Group, Ord Minnett retains its Hold rating and $13.25 target price. It's felt investor sentiment will be more swayed by progress on the agreed sale of the Banking division to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)).

While General Insurance (GI) was a beat versus the broker's expectation (driven by higher bond yields) the capital position was a miss due to the impact of deferred tax assets, which is expected to unwind. The outlook for GI depends on how the company sets premium rates.

The 2H dividend of 40cps exceeded the analyst's forecast for 30.1cps though the consensus expectation was for 43 cents.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: $2.14
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.11, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Despite a difficult half, UBS believes Suncorp Group's full year results speak to the core general insurance franchise remaining in good shape.

While home claims inflation has been a key concern for the broker in the last year, UBS noted Suncorp Group appears to have navigated the headwind well, with claim severity rising only 1-2% in the second half as the industry rose closer to 10%. 

Looking ahead, the broker anticipates the 10-12% margin guidance for the coming year may prove conservative given trajectory in the second half, and expects profitability to improve in the near term. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $14.80 from $14.40.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: $3.69
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.11, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees a solid platform for transaction value (TV) growth for Tyro Payments following the release of figures for July showing a slow and steady improvement.

For the company's mobile app, downloads, daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) all showed improvement over the month. The Buy rating and $1.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.22
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 95.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources