Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines announced follow up drilling reports at Swagman which Shaw and Partners considers as evidence of high-grade copper results.

The broker expects Swagman will be the first of multiple discoveries in the prospecting area and the company will continue to focus on exploration at Jericho and the entire 2,000 square km area.

Towards the end of July/August start, management will host a roundtable in both Sydney and Melbourne for investors and the analyst expects AIC Mines will exceed its FY24 production target for the June quarter.

There are no changes to the analyst's estimates. Buy rating with $1.20 target unchanged. High risk.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.745
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 164% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARF as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Arena REIT has been downgraded to Neutral from Buy. The price target has adjusted to $3.94 from $3.97.

Target price is $3.94 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $0.02
If ARF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Citi tweaks earnings forecasts for ASX on the back of the final activity report for FY24, by -0.2% for FY25.

The FY24 activity report revealed a large lift in IPO raisings, up 58%, the analyst observes, despite a -4% drop in the number of listed entities and cash trading volumes.

Futures volumes rose 15%  due to higher interest rates and market participants like hedge funds. The cash market ended the year soft, with a -17% drop in June’s average trade value, and a -4% decrease in cash market value for the year.

Neutral rating and $61.90 target unchanged.

Target price is $61.90 Current Price is $61.37 Difference: $0.53
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.76, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights June quarter data for the ASX indicate equities trading volumes remain compressed, and IPO activity and capital raisings remain soft.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target falls to $60.00 from $60.50. The target is impacted by lower earnings forecasts and the broker's higher assumed risk-free rate (RFR) of 4.24%, up from 3.80%.

Target price is $60.50 Current Price is $61.37 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.76, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett reviews the ASX monthly activity update for June 2024 and accordingly makes minor earnings forecast changes of 0.9% for FY24 and 0.6% for FY25.

The broker observes futures volumes increased 13% in 2H24 but remain -10% below pre-covid levels; cash market trading is stable, while participant balances rose 17% in 2H24 compared to 1H24.

June saw $2.5bn raised through IPOs, contributing to a total of $3.2bn for 2H24, although the number of listed entities fell -5% to 2,155.

Lighten rating and $59.50 target remain.

Target price is $59.50 Current Price is $61.37 Difference: minus $1.87 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.76, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

A new analyst is covering Boss Energy at Macquarie resulting in a $5.00 target, down from $6.00, but the Outperform rating remains.

The lower target arises from the broker's lower assumed multiple, as well as a lower ramp-up expectation for Honeymoon following new guidance by management because of delays related to materials handling.

The ramp profile is now a year later than the analyst's prior forecast. Macquarie notes first sales to European nuclear utilities will occur this quarter.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.93
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Based on Morgan Stanley's prior forecast, the production ramp-up at Boss Energy's Honeymoon mine has been delayed by one quarter.

The target for Boss Energy falls to $4.55 from $4.65 on the broker's updated production profile.

The analysts remain cautious around costs, with no update provided by management so far.

Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.48
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BWP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for BWP Trust  has been downgraded to Neutral from Buy. The price target has adjusted to $3.79 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.79 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.28
If BWP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Charter Hall remains Neutral. The price target has adjusted to $11.93 from $12.20.

Target price is $11.93 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: $0.78
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.65, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CIP as Buy (1) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Centuria Industrial REIT remains Buy. The price target has adjusted to $3.50 from $3.73.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.46
If CIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT remains Neutral, the price target has reduced to $3.54 from $4.13. The analysts highlight they don't believe the high yield on offer compensates for the risks, including a highly leveraged balance sheet.

The Neutral rating is a reflection of the fact risks are now seen as "balanced" against lowly priced shares.

Target price is $3.54 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.22
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNI as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

Believing investors are pricing in too much growth in the short term, UBS has downgraded Centuria Capital to Sell from Neutral. Price target is now $1.51, down from $1.53 previously.

Target price is $1.51 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COF as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Centuria Office REIT remains Neutral, the new price target is $1.19, down from $1.35. Centuria Office REIT will need to sell some of its assets, the broker assures, to reduce gearing, with negative impact on future earnings.

Target price is $1.19 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.04
If COF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Charter Hall Retail REIT remains Neutral with an unchanged price target of $3.68.

Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.49
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

In recent years, a rise in the US dollar versus key currencies has presented headwinds for revenue, gross profit and profit for CSL, notes Macquarie.

While the broker's forecasts imply further NPATA headwinds for FY24 and FY25 of -US$87m and -US$25m, respectively, a benefit of US$105m is expected in FY26.

The Outperform rating is retained as the analyst expects EPS growth of around 15% per annum over the next five years (driven by
CSL Behring), suggesting the current share price is an attractive entry point.

The $330.00 target is unchanged for CSL.

Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $297.50 Difference: $32.5
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $321.73, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSS as Hold (3) -

FY24 sales volumes for Clean Seas Seafood grew by 3% year-on-year, while revenue declined by -1%. Management's FY25 sales target of between 2,600-2,800t is below Bell Potter's expectations of around 3,000t, reflecting lower biomass growth over the 2H of FY24.

The broker lowers its FY24 and FY25 operating earnings EBITDA forecasts by more than -100% and -36%, respectively.

The target falls to 21.5c from 27c target price to reflect the broker's forecast for a reduced earnings range on lower selling price ranges.

The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.015
If CSS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS is of the view the announced acquisition of Trident and subsequent negative impact on available dividends for shareholders is distracting investors' attention from the underlying quality of Deterra Royalties' assets.

Therefore the share price weakness following the Trident announcement is seen as offering an attractive entry point into a business that remains "fundamentally sound".

Upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Target price $4.90.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.73
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DXS as Buy (1) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Dexus remains Buy. The price target has adjusted to $8.63 from $8.70.

Target price is $8.63 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $2.19
If DXS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GL1 as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes Global Lithium Resources has announced encouraging drilling results from its Marble Bar Lithium Project highlighting significant lithium mineralisation across multiple targets.

The broker notes the ongoing drilling campaign aims to expand the existing resource and explore new zones of high-grade lithium mineralisation. 

No changes have been made to financial forecasts. Buy and $2.20 target retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $1.925
If GL1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 700% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 352.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector, such as Goodman Group, are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

Believing investors are pricing in too much growth in the short term, UBS has downgraded Goodman Group to Sell from Neutral. Price target lifts to $31.71 from $29.25.

Target price is $31.71 Current Price is $35.38 Difference: minus $3.67 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.04, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for GPT Group remains Buy. The price target has adjusted to $4.92 from $4.97.

Target price is $4.92 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.86
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HDN as Buy (1) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT remains Buy with an unchanged price target of $1.40.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.21
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for HMC Capital remains Neutral with the price target at $6.95 (unchanged).

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $7.31 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Following analysis of shipping data, Macquarie updates spodumene production and shipments assumptions for Australian lithium producers. Forecasts for other commodity exposures these producers hold are also adjusted.

Arcadium lithium remains the broker's top pick given latent value and price protection.

In the June quarter, the broker highlights rising nickel prices for IGO more than offset lower nickel output.

The Neutral rating and $6.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $0.11
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Ingenia Communities remains Neutral with unchanged price target of $4.90.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.05
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans issues a "call to action" on ImpediMed.

The broker believes the retracement in the share price to near 24-month lows suggests the market has turned its back on what Morgans' views as a compelling investment case.

A recent complete board refresh and new management appointments, as well as reinvigorated focus on the growth of the US installed base with a breakeven target in two years, are viewed by the analyst as positives for the company.

ImpediMed is also targeting a -10% to -15% reduction in costs from FY25, highlights Morgans.

Target price 20.2c and Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.132
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 189% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JIN as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Citi concludes the market consensus for Jumbo Interactive's earnings estimates are too upbeat, with the analyst expecting the outlook for the company to become more challenged in FY25.

The broker initiates coverage with a Sell rating and a $15 target price. Its FY25 earnings forecasts sit -6% below consensus.

The shift to online lottery purchases is expected to continue supporting the Lottery Retailing and SaaS businesses, but Citi views key contract renewals with Lotterywest and The Lottery Corporation ((TLC)) as risks to earnings in FY27 and FY30.

Expansion into the international charity market, a potential growth area for Jumbo Interactive, remains a slow and challenging process, states the broker.

Sell rating. $15 target.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $17.12 Difference: minus $2.12 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.11, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Lifestyle Communities remains Neutral. The price target is unchanged at $12.85.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $12.46 Difference: $0.39
If LIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.28, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

The ACCC has identified competition impacts around the Stockland's/Supalai acquisition of the Lendlease Group Communities business.

The acquisition targets 12 out of Lendlease's 16 master planned community projects located in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, and Western Australia.

The regulator has raised preliminary concerns Stockland may artificially reduce volumes in certain projects in order to lift sales in its balance sheet communities, explains Morgan Stanley.

The Equal-weight rating. Target $6.35. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.71
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett was disappointed by the ACCC expression of concern over the proposed sale of around five out of the twelve estates slated for sale to the Stockland ((SGP)) JV.

The regulator flagged Illawarra as of particular concern along with North-West Penrith, Ipswich, and Moreton Bay, which combined represent 7,250 out of a total 27,640 lots, with the broker flagging Illawarra represents 10% of the backlog.

Ord Minnett lowers its FY25 earnings forecast to account for the exclusion of Illawarra. The ACCC is expected to make a final decision on September 12.

The target price is revised down to $6.20 from $6.25 and a Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.56
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LLC as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

As one of few upgrades only, the broker's rating for Lendlease Group has shifted to Neutral from Sell. The price target has adjusted to $5.79 from $5.56.

Target price is $5.79 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.15
If LLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTM as Outperform (1) -

Following analysis of shipping data, Macquarie updates spodumene production and shipments assumptions for Australian lithium producers. Forecasts for other commodity exposures these producers hold are also adjusted.

Arcadium lithium remains the broker's top pick given latent value and price protection.

The analyst takes a conservative view on operating costs and ongoing post-merger integration costs, resulting in a profit forecast for the June half of US$67m, -41% lower than consensus.

The Outperform rating and $6.60 target are maintained.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $1.41
If LTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 62.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Underperform (5) -

While outflows continued to moderate for Magellan Financial during the June quarter, Macquarie highlights the investment performance remains mixed.

The broker suggests the current valuation multiple doesn't appropriately reflect the near-term risk to retail flows. This view is based on 1Q of FY25, when around $3.4bn of close-ended retail funds under management (FUM) converts to open-ended.

The Underperform rating is retained and the target price falls to $8.20 from $8.40.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $9.07 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.95, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Mirvac Group has been upgraded to Buy from Neutral. The price target has adjusted to $2.19 from $2.23.

Target price is $2.19 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.315
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Following analysis of shipping data, Macquarie updates spodumene production and shipments assumptions for Australian lithium producers.

Arcadium lithium remains the broker's top pick given latent value and price protection.

For Mineral Resources, the analyst's target price falls by -2% to $61 on a weakened near-term earnings outlook.

The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $57.97 Difference: $3.03
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.79, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes Metro Mining is on track to achieve its expansion to 7mt post the latest production update which coincided with a visit to the Bauxite Hills site.

The analyst highlights record production for the June quarter at 1.4mt represents a new record, but remains below the 1.6mt to 1.8mt management was aiming for.

Strong Chinese demand and bauxite export bans from Indonesia have boosted the market. The Buy, High Risk rating is maintained, and the target price lifted to 13c from 7c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.075
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NHC as Hold (3) -

New Hope is capitalising on a relatively cheap source of funding, and a recent uptick in share price, according to Bell Potter, by issuing $300m of senior unsecured convertible notes. The pro-forma cash balance is now around $674m, estimates the analyst.

This funding may be in preparation for M&A activity, suggests the broker, as management has been open about pursuing opportunities within the coal sector.

The Hold rating and $4.70 target are maintained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

As rainfall impacted the delivery of ore from the Hengjaya mine to the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Indonesia, explains Macquarie, 2Q earnings have disappointed.

Management expects earnings in the range of US$75-80m compared to the broker's prior US$126.8m estimate.

Separately, the analyst is expecting share price support given a US$100m share buyback has been approved.

The Outperform rating and $1.10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.275
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 39.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

Nickel Industries has guided to 2Q 2024 earnings (EBITDA) of between US$75-85m, significantly below Morgan Stanley's US$133m forecast, due to higher-than-average rain at the Hengjaya mine.

While this earnings miss is a near-term negative, the analysts see a potential US$100m buyback as being positive for the share price. The buyback is now considered feasible driven by FIRB approval for United Tractors to increase its equity interest beyond 20%.

The broker's Overweight rating and 95c target for Nickel Industries are maintained. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.125
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 39.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NSR as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for National Storage REIT remains Neutral. The price target has adjusted to $2.40 from $2.34.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.08
If NSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PAA as No Rating (-1) -

Morgans discusses Pharmaust in "Keeping Stock", a biotech drug development company concentrating on motor neurone disease (MND), with a $82m market cap.

The company's main asset is monepantel, a drug approved as a de-worming agent for sheep and cattle, with Morgans explaining it is being repurposed to a potential human treatment for neurodegenerative conditions such as MND.

Phase 1 trials for this treatment have been successful, highlights the broker.

No rating or earnings estimates have been provided.

Current Price is $0.20. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Following analysis of shipping data, Macquarie updates spodumene production and shipments assumptions for Australian lithium producers. Forecasts for other commodity exposures these producers hold are also adjusted.

Arcadium lithium remains the broker's top pick given latent value and price protection.

The Neutral rating and $3.25 target are maintained for Pilbara Minerals. The broker's 4Q forecast average realised price for spodumene of US$889/dmt for the company is -7% below market consensus, while cost is -4% worse than consensus at US$431/t.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.2
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REP as Buy (1) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for RAM Essential Services Property Fund remains Buy. The price target has adjusted to $0.82 from $0.84.

Target price is $0.82 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.23
If REP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RFF as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Rural Funds remains Neutral. The price target has adjusted to $2.20 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.18
If RFF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Region Group remains Buy. The price target remains $2.58.

Target price is $2.58 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.43
If RGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights Regal Partners is generating strong net flows, strong investment returns, and high fee income while benefitting from increased scale via acquisitions.

Management noted performance fees should be $55m in the 1H of 2024 compared to the broker's $50m forecast.

Funds under management (FUM) at June 30 were $12.2bn, below the $12.5bn forecast by the analysts, due partly to buy-backs, forex movements, and fund capital movements.

The Buy rating and $4.75 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $1.37
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett continues to view Regal Partners as cheaply valued on the back of the latest June update which revealed good inflows in the 2Q24 and strong growth in performance fees.

Funds under management rose 1% on the previous quarter to $12.2bn and net inflows of $0.3bn were higher than the broker's expectations. Performance fees were slightly lower at $55m-$56m, compared to the analyst's forecast of $60m.

Ord Minnett believes the biggest opportunity for the company is the new business PM Capital and its flagship Global Companies Fund.

Buy rating with a $4.20 target unchanged.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.82
If RPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

Believing investors are pricing in too much growth in the short term, UBS has downgraded Scentre Group to Sell from Neutral. Price target is now $2.96, down from $2.98 previously.

Target price is $2.96 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

The ACCC has identified competition impacts competition impacts around the Stockland's/Supalai acquisition of the Lendlease Group Communities business.

The acquisition targets 12 out of Lendlease's 16 masterplanned community projects located in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, and Western Australia.

The regulator has raised preliminary concerns Stockland may artificially reduce volumes in certain projects in order to lift sales in its balance sheet communities, explains the broker.

Overweight rating. Target $5.30. In-Line Industry view.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: $1.07
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Stockland remains Neutral. The price target has adjusted to $4.58 from $4.64.

Target price is $4.58 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: $0.35
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter updates its forecasts for Smartgroup Corp after reviewing new vehicle sales (source: June VFACTS) and other industry developments.

The new sales data surpassed the previous best result in June 2018, though the analysts expect yield improvements to bottom out with higher vehicle values offset by dealer discounts.

In a positive for the salary packaging industry, automotive dealerships are experiencing weaker retail customer demand and increased competition (source: National Automotive Leasing and Salary Packaging Association), explains the broker.

Unchanged Buy rating and the target falls to $10.95 from $11.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $8.53 Difference: $2.42
If SIQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.10, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the valuation discount of Suncorp Group to Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) is excessive and Suncorp Group shares can re-rate upwards.

By comparison to Insurance Australia Group, the broker points out Suncorp has a better record of earnings quality, along with a superior motor insurance franchise and market share.

Additionally, the analysts note $1.54/share of capital return optionality via additional debt and quota share reinsurance to bring Suncorp's general insurance to the levels of debt and reinsurance leverage of Insurance Australia Group.

The Overweight rating is maintained and the target raised to $20.20 from $17.05. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $20.20 Current Price is $16.82 Difference: $3.38
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.43, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

Seven Group is now 100% owner of Boral (with the remainder to be acquired compulsary) and UBS has returned from research restriction with a Buy rating and $43 price target.

Boral performing has now become key for the conglomerate's outlook and UBS is forecasting a three year EBIT CAGR of 12%, with strong operating cash flows supporting further deleveraging.

Share price dilution and ongoing challenges at Beach have forced downward adjustments to forecasts.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $37.58 Difference: $5.42
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.53, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SXG as Buy (1) -

Post the recent drilling results from the 100% owned Sunday Creek project which revealed Apollo East as a new discovery, Shaw and Partners views the share price pullback as a good entry point for Southern Cross Gold.

Unchanged Buy rating and $3.26 target. High risk.

Target price is $3.26 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.66
If SXG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights lottery revenue in 2H24 was up 36% on the previous year, exhibiting a slower end to FY24 for Lottery Corp.

Powerball's like-for-like revenue growth remained stable, but Oz Lotto revenue has contracted, and the broker points to the last large Powerball jackpot which was in May at $150m.

Accounting for the updated lottery tracker data, Citi reduces EPS forecasts by -1.6% for FY24 and -0.6% in FY25, but the analyst states the estimates remain above consensus.

Target price is $5.60 with a Buy rating, including the upside potential for an increase in the dividend payout ratio.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $0.67
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

While the recent 1Q25 result from Constellation Brands highlights challenges in the US wine market, Citi's take is FY24 earnings estimates for Treasury Wine Estates are not at risk, due to management's recent guidance update.

However, Constellation's report showed a -7% decline in Wine & Spirits sales and a -370bp contraction in operating margin, indicating ongoing difficulties in the US wholesale channel.

Comparatively, Treasury Wine Estates' portfolio has a greater focus on luxury wines, which is the main point of differentiation, Citi states.

No changes to earnings forecasts. Neutral rating with a $12.95 target price.

Target price is $12.95 Current Price is $12.27 Difference: $0.68
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.78, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VCX as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Through a broad sector update on A-REITs, UBS analysts argue the sector is now less likely to find support from RBA rate cuts (as many REITs are growth challenged and funds management benefits are harder to achieve) and valuations for the winners in the sector are seen as "stretched" in the here and now.

Developers are faced with tougher conditions, with asset sales on the menu (and a must for some). Performance fees for fund managers will be much harder to achieve.

UBS has reduced forecasts across the board, placing the broker's numbers below consensus in most cases.

The broker's rating for Vicinity Centres  has been upgraded to Neutral from Sell. The price target remains unchanged at $1.86.

Target price is $1.86 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.05, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources