Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AD8 as Outperform (1) -

Audinate Group's key December-half metric (video hardware) outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 27%, leading to a 39% jump in revenue, and the broker observes first-half video revenue is tracking at 60% of the full-year target.

Software revenue disappointed due to supply chain issues which hampered customer's manufacturing efforts, but the broker says the outlook here is improving.

Macquarie expects gross profit margin pressure should ease in FY24.

EPS forecasts rise 40% to 157% across FY23 to FY25, as the company moves from loss to profit in FY24 (December-half EPS outpaced the broker by 89%).

Outperform rating and $10 target price retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.89 Difference: $2.11
If AD8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.12, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Audinate Group's 1H results were ahead of expectations despite supply chain disruption and Morgan Stanley believes normalisation in this area will provide a future growth tailwind.

Maintenance of FY23 guidance provides conviction for the broker on delivery of results, while further adoption by the industry of the company's video offering should provide share price catalysts over 2023. 

Revenue was US$20.6m in the 1H, an 8% beat versus Morgan Stanley's estimate. More than $2m related to video, which is considered to be well on-track to hit a target of more than US$3m for FY23.

The Overweight rating and $10 target are unchanged. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.89 Difference: $2.11
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.12, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses a strong 1H result for Audinate Group and raises its target to $10.35 from $10.20. Buy.

Were it not for chip supply constraints (Ultimo) and a pull forward of 4Q FY22 sales, the broker suggests the result would have been even better.

The sales backlog remains at record levels, while supply is likely to remain constrained in the 2H albeit improving for Ultimo chips, notes the analyst.

Video revenue was US$2m and the broker points to upside risk if US$3m is exceeded for FY23.

There was a strong beat to UBS's expectations in the first half, while US revenue grew 39% year-on-year and Australian revenue 52% year-on-year, while earnings jumped 109%. 

The analyst found free cash flow to be the key miss from the update, but expects the market will be able to overlook this. 

Target price is $10.35 Current Price is $7.89 Difference: $2.46
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.12, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

In an initial reponse to Ansell's first half result, Citi notes earnings -8% below consensus on weaker revenues and margins. Ansell has cut its FY guidance midpoint by -4%, suggesting “demand conditions in the Healthcare segment are weaker than previously expected”.

Despite management flagging a weaker result at its November AGM, Citi expects a negative market reaction.

Neutral and $30.75 target.

Target price is $30.75 Current Price is $28.09 Difference: $2.66
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.34, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

According to Citi, Aurizon Holdings has delivered a material miss with limited positives. While revenue of $1,694m was in line, earnings of $345m were a -22% miss. 

Increased capitol allocation suggests Aurizon Holdings is chasing growth, increasing investment in Bulk, suggests the broker.

However, given earnings declined year-on-year despite a five month contribution from the One Rail acquisition, Citi expects investors to question if capital may be better directed to dividends.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.70 from $4.17.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.25
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Aurizon Holdings' first half underlying earnings came in -10% short of Credit Suisse  and profit -33% short. Coal volumes were down -8% and Network volumes -2% due to prolonged wet weather, which also increased costs.

Costs relating to the OneRail acquisition were significantly higher than the broker had assumed. Aurizon did however announce a series of Bulk contract wins, and cited some 200 further potential opportunities.

Market concern over sustainability of the coal business has left the stock undervalued, Credit Suisse believes. Outperform retained, target falls to $4.00 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.55
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as No Rating (-1) -

Aurizon Holdings's December-half result sharply missed consensus' and Macquarie's forecasts, as soft coal volumes took their toll; and the broker expects the result will disappoint dividend chasers.

Operating cash flow was sharply weaker due to higher taxes but the broker expects this to improve in the June half, observing a tax refund in the wings and lower tax due in FY24 thanks to a $100m instant asset write-off stemming from qualifying capital expenditure.

Earnings forecasts fall -10.2% in FY23; -6% in FY24; and -5.9% in FY25, reflecting the deferral of network income to FY25.

Macquarie is on research restriction.

Current Price is $3.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

Aurizon Holdings' 1H profit was a -34% miss versus Morgan Stanley's forecast, while the interim dividend of 7cps missed consensus by -30%.

Management lowered earnings (EBITDA) guidance by -4%.

Coal earnings for the half were primarily impacted by weather, while lower volumes and some cost increases weighed on Network earnings, explains the analyst. 

Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating and $3.66 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.21
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

In the wake of 1H results, Morgans sees potential share price upside and a reasonable yield for Aurizon Holdings and upgrades its rating to Add from Hold.

This view comes despite a miss versus the broker's forecasts for 1H earnings (EBITDA), cashflow and DPS, as well as a -4% guidance downgrade for earnings in FY23. Earnings for Network, Coal and Bulk were misses of -10%, -8% and -16% respectively.

Management noted the current 75% dividend payout will continue during the capex cycle (ending FY24) for the Bulk division, and the analyst anticipates the payout may lift thereafter.

The target price eases to $3.72 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.27
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Accumulate (2) -

Aurizon Holdings' December-half result appears to have missed Ord Minnett's forecasts due to wet weather and a train derailment.

The broker says the miss partially reflects the fact that it had underestimated depreciation expense from acquisitions and other growth projects.

Ord Minnett is less concerned about poor weather going forward and expects earnings will improve from here.

Management cut earnings (EBITDA) guidance by -4%.

The interim dividend disappointed by -33% and the broker cuts its full-year dividend forecast -23% to 16.3c a share, but expects a rebound in FY24 to roughly 21cps.

Accumulate rating and $4.70 target price retained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $1.25
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Underlying earnings of $673m from Aurizon Holdings' first half were a -7% miss to UBS's expectations, largely attributed to weather impacts and slower than expected growth in the company's Bulk division, with division earnings a -12% miss to the broker's assumptions. 

While the company lowered its guidance range for current fiscal year by -$50m, UBS highlights this is in context of a -$105m impact from weather.

With weather impacts reversed and growth resumed in Bulk, the broker sees a compelling earnings trajectory for Aurizon Holdings into FY24. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.55 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.1
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Citi finds Beach Energy's current share price to be "aggressively" compensating for uncertainty, but sees a compelling margin of safety for investors at current levels. 

It is the broker's view that the current share price implies no new growth or development in both East Coast gas and Western Flank oil drilling, a scenario it considers unlikely. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.73 from $1.82.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.21
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Beach Energy's December-half result disappointed due to weaker than expected production and rising capital expenditure.

On the upside, management announced a free-cash-flow-based dividend outlook and Macquarie expects this will improve returns and offer franking credits, translating to a 8% fully franked dividend yield.

But the broker increases its sustaining capital-expenditure forecasts on mature assets, believing consensus forecasts to be off the mark. Macquarie believes this could result in the market overestimating dividends under the new regime. 

Management guided to rising activity in FY24 to FY25 as it develops its Waitsia wells and up to 14 Perth basin wells, which the broker suggests points to much-higher-than-forecast capital expenditure.

EPS forecasts fall -8% in FY23; rise 1% in FY24 to reflect a forecast jump in oil production; and fall -9% in FY25, the broker expecting lower Waitsia earnings.

Neutral rating and $1.50 target price retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a modestly negative reaction on the market to 1H results by Beach Energy as earnings were a -3% miss versus the broker and consensus, while guidance for unit operating costs rose.

A fully franked 2cps interim dividend was declared, ahead of the 1cps expected by the broker and consensus.

The broker retains its Underweight rating and $1.53 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.01
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Add (1) -

Morgans lowers its target for Beach Energy by -7% to $1.68 following a soft 1H result due to cost increases and production declines. FY23 guidance for production was reduced by -7%, while field operating costs rose by 12%.

Despite these negative metrics, the broker still sees value and maintains its Add rating. In a year's time the company is expected to be in a much stronger production position with the prospect of spot LNG exposure.

Morgans acknowledges the company has a task to restore investor confidence.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.16
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy's December-half result outpaced Ord Minnett's forecasts but the broker lowers FY23 EPS forecasts after management cut guidance by -5% to -10%.

The company increased its dividend, shifting the pay-out methodology to 40%-50% of pre-growth free cash flow, and the broker raises DPS forecasts 117% in FY23; and 230% in FY24, taking the fully franked yields to 2.9% and 4.4% respectively.

Buy rating and $3 target price retained, the broker observing the company is sharply undervalued, and the broker also appreciates the growth prospects of recent drilling projects.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $1.48
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy's 1H results were broadly in line with forecasts by UBS.

A new capital management framework suggests to the analyst a 35% DPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY23-25 and a dividend yield lifting to 11% from 6% over that period.

The stock is the only under Energy coverage by UBS with a pathway to more than 25% free cash flow yield in 18 months time.

It came as no surprise to the analyst FY23 guidance fell as a result of a -7% production cut due to drilling delays at Western Flank oil, while capex guidance increased by 6% from higher costs in Perth basin.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target slips to $1.85 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.33
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CAR as Outperform (1) -

Carsales reported in line with Credit Suisse. Management continues to expect "good" growth in FY23, and the broker notes “good” growth generally refers to high-single digit to low-double digit growth.

Ultimately, Credit Suisse is of the view that management has a buffer to deliver full year guidance, with potential upside if domestic conditions remain buoyant.

Positive contributors to earnings growth will include lower opex growth and an acceleration in revenue growth at Trader Interactive.

Target rises to $25.40 from $25.30, Outperform retained.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $22.68 Difference: $2.72
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Outperform (1) -

Carsales's December-half result fell -3% shy of consensus forecasts but met Macquarie's expectations.

Private was the major earner, logging revenue growth of 39%, yield growth of 16% and volume growth of 23%; but the broker expects momentum to slow in the June half, despite management upgrading FY23 guidance to strong from good.

Meanwhile, the broker observes the company's countercyclical traits are starting to emerge (boosting yield growth), dealer depth revenue rising in the December quarter as inventories rose and sales times eased.

Price increases were logged across the trader interactive platform as forecast. EPS forecasts rise 9% in FY23; 4% in FY24; and 7% in FY24. 

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises 3% to $24.50 from $23.80.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $22.68 Difference: $1.82
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -

During 2020-2022, total new and used car turnover was lower in Australia, explains Morgan Stanley, but with global supply slowly returning consumer demand remains elevated. A period of turnover catch-up is now expected over 2023/2024.

The broker states this view after reviewing 1H results for Carsales where Australian revenues for Dealer, Private and Media all outpaced full year expectations. In the US, revenue and earnings (EBITDA) growth also exceeded forecasts.

For FY23, management expects "good growth" in revenue and earnings and higher group earnings margins, while in the US, "good growth" in revenue and strong growth in earnings are expected.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and raises its target to $26.50 from $26.00.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $22.68 Difference: $3.82
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Hold (3) -

In a broadly solid 1H result, Carsales reported profit in line with Morgans expectation while there were slight misses for revenue and earnings (EBITDA).

Better than previously forecast operating leverage leads the analyst to raise its earnings forecasts across FY23-25 and lift the target to $24.30 from $23.80. 

On a pro forma basis, the company registered double digit revenue growth across all its business units/ regions, observes the broker.

While attracted to the longer-term growth opportunity, Morgans awaits an attractive entry point to acquire shares, and keeps its Hold rating in the meantime.

Target price is $24.30 Current Price is $22.68 Difference: $1.62
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Hold (3) -

Carsales's December-half result appears to have broadly met Ord Minnett's forecasts, the company posting a 37% jump in revenue after consolidating Trader Interactive, and thanks largely to a sharp uptick in used-car listings.

The company finished the half with net debt of just over $1bn at December 31, but given strong sales, the broker expects its net debt/earnings (EBITDA) ratio will fall to less than 1 by FY25.

Hold rating and $22.80 target price retained.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $22.68 Difference: $0.12
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

UBS has found Carsales' first half operationally in line with its expectations, highlighting trading commentary suggests no slowdown in consumer demand to date and no change to Carsales' positive momentum. 

In a closer look at the company's Trader Interactive (TI) acquisition, the broker notes TI's verticals look to be more cyclical than Automotive, but that TI's revenues are more correlated with dealer revenues given its higher level of subscription-based dealer revenue. 

UBS sees potential for TI to grow its dealer penetration, offering some buffer against a potential volume decline. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $26.00 from $26.30.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.68 Difference: $3.32
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DRR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse expects a continued focus on cost and capex control to see which miners have been able to tame costs, after several are now stating that whilst costs remain elevated, broader inflationary pressures have eased in recent months.

Dividends are likely to remain subdued this reporting season, the broker warns, as earnings and free cash flow remain low for some.

Credit Suisse has downgraded Deterra Royalties to Neutral from Outperform on valuation. Target unchanged, but not reported.

Current Price is $4.81. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EBO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews its investment thesis for Ebos Group and expects its FY24 EPS forecasts could rise 7% under a bull scenario but the broker believes inflation is the key risk to this scenario given every 100 basis point rise in FY24 operating expenditure reduces EPS forecasts -2% to -3%. 

EPS forecasts are adjusted to 0.2% to -3% across FY23/24 and rise 0% in outer years. Overall, the investment thesis remains intact.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rise 9% to NZ$47.01, which compares with the last entry in the FNArena database of NZ$43.03. 

Current Price is $39.40. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $40.75, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EDV as Underperform (5) -

Endeavour Group's reult surprised Credit Suisse to the upside, particularly in liquor retail. Liquor retail gross margin improved year on year but its sustainability is likely to be a debating point amongst investors, the broker warns.

The broker retains Underperform as it continues to see a low rate of growth in retail liquor sales and more regulatory risk in hotels than the market is pricing in.

Target falls to $6.15 from $6.62.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Outperform (1) -

Endeavour Group's December-half result beat Macquarie's forecasts thanks to a strong earnings (EBIT) performance from the Hotels division as higher foot traffic aided high-margin lines (margins rose 7%). Retail also posted a beat.

Management reports June-half trading to date has seen Retail sales rise 0.2% and Hotels rise 31.5% on the covid recovery.

The broker observes staffing pressures are easing as premiumisation continues apace.

EPS forecasts rise 3.1% for FY23.

Outperform rating and $7.40 target price retained, the broker taking a cautious stance on 2023 given the effects of inflation, mortgage rate rises on consumer discretionary spending, preferring staples. 

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: $0.3
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Underweight (5) -

Better-than-expected Retail margins and stronger Hotel revenues led to a beat for Endeavour Group's 1H results compared to Morgan Stanley's expectations. A stronger outcome for Hotels was driven by a return to on-premises dining/entertainment, explains the analyst.

Earnings (EBIT) and profit exceeded consensus estimates by 8.5% and 8.2%, respectively.

Regarding the outlook, management has seen no material changes in customer behaviors in the first five weeks of the year.

As Morgan Stanley suggests the company valuation is expensive relative to food retailers like Woolworths Group ((WOW)), the Underweight rating is kept. A significant de-rating of casino stocks is also noted due to regulatory changes.

The target rises to $6.20 from $5.90. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans believes risks lay to the upside for Endeavour Group after a 1H result ahead of expectations, which demonstrated cost control despite the inflationary backdrop.

Earnings (EBIT) beat Morgans and consensus forecasts by 7% and 9%, respectively, reflecting a strong rebound in Hotels and a lower-than-expected fall in Retail earnings. The Retail margin performance was considered a key standout.

The broker raises its FY23-25 earnings forecasts by 7%, 6% and 5%, respectively. The target rises to $7.80 from $6.80. As Morgans expects a total shareholder return of 13% in the next 12 months, the rating is raised to Add from Hold.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: $0.7
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Lighten (4) -

Endeavour Group's December-half result outpaced consensus, but met Ord Minnett's forecast.

The broker says Retail sales were softer than expected (sales down -4%) but the shift to higher margin premium categories supported margins.

The Hotels division outpaced after a rise in foot traffic post covid. Retail accounts for roughly 60% of operating earnings.

EPS forecasts fall -6% in FY23; and -4% in FY24 to reflect the impact of higher interest rates on the company's finance costs.

Lighten rating and $6.40 target price retained.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Endeavour Group reported 2% year-on-year sales growth, 16% earnings growth and 17% net profit growth in its first half, but UBS notes retail earnings declined -9.3% year-on-year as sales stabilised post-covid. 

The broker found Endeavour Group's cost of doing business management a positive surprise in the quarter, with inflation, higher labour costs and operating de-leverage all managed better than expected through effective rostering, electronic shelf edge labels and reduced online sales. 

UBS expects these initiatives to continue to support earnings margins moving forward. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.15 from $6.75. 

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: $0.05
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Outperform (1) -

Fletcher Building's pre-released December half missed consensus but outpaced Macquarie's forecast and management lowers FY23 guidance -3%.

New guidance points to a continued easing in residential turnover in Australia and New Zealand, which is likely to translate to a -10% to -15% fall in volumes for the materials/distribution business in FY24.

However, this still falls within Macquarie's forecasts (peak of -19%). Margins appear to have posted a small beat. 

Outperform rating and NZ$8 target price are retained.

Current Price is $4.63. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's prior Overweight thesis for Fletcher Building was based on cyclical strength providing earnings momentum. Now, the broker feels key A&NZ cycles are past their peaks and an Equal-weight rating is adopted.

A softer 1H result was driven by lower Residential and Development earnings, which came in at less than half the analyst's forecasts.

Management lowered FY23 guidance for earnings (EBIT) to NZ$800-850m (subject to market activity and house sales) from over $850m. January to February trading in New Zealand has been significantly impacted by adverse weather.

The broker lowers its target to $5.00 from $5.90. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.37
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FBU as Accumulate (2) -

Fletcher Building has downgraded FY23 guidance due to bad weather in New Zealand in the June half to date.

Ord Minnett considers this to represent merely a deferral of earnings, and the broker suspects the poor weather could even drive short-term earnings due to repair of damaged structures and supply chain issues.

While the broker downgrades FY23 income forecasts -4%, the fall is insufficient to change its fair-value estimate and the broker retains its long-term focus.

Accumulate rating and $5.50 target price retained. (Ord Minnett is now white-labelling Morningstar research for Fletcher Building.)

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.87
If FBU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Greater clarity on Insurance Australia Group's first half result has Citi backing the company's ability to deliver gross written premiums and insurance margins in line with guidance over the second half.

News of additional New Zealand coverage provides some assurance around the insurer's ability to handle catastrophes, Citi suggests.

The broker points out significant premium earn-through is expected to benefit the second half, and improves confidence in the underlying margin improving to 15.4%. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.60 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.68
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse reports a slight miss on profit for Insurance Australia Group, with the dividend in line. Unchanged and solid Direct Insurance Australia customer retention suggests to the broker robust premium rate increases can be sustained.

This provides more comfort on the FY24 margin trajectory, but Credit Suisse sees risk to second half FY23 guidance as it seems ambitious, and perils risk remains.

But with the stock trading at a discount to its five-year average PE, Outperform retained. Target rises to $5.72 from $5.68.

Target price is $5.72 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.8
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Insurance Australia Group largely pre-released December-half result (including guidance) held few surprises.

Macquarie considers the 2.2% increase in December-half expense growth to be good given the macro inflationary environment.

EPS forecasts fall -8% for FY23 to reflect higher reinsurance reinstatement costs; and rise 2.2% in FY24 to reflect growth in gross written premiums.

Outperform rating retained, the broker considering the company to be cheap. Target price eases to $5.40 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.48
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley noted more risk margin tailwinds and less reinsurance headwinds for Insurance Australia Group from within 1H results, and feels the pathway toward a 2H margin recovery is becoming more evident.

The result was in line with pre-reported figures and confirms double digit price increases, which should help the group deliver more consistent earnings over time, suggests the broker.

The analyst also expects a lag for earnings as industry personal lines pricing hit record levels and the group was slow to reprice.

Management's reduced FY23 reported margin guidance of 10% implies to Morgan Stanley an underlying margin of around 15.5% for the 2H.

The target rises to $4.75 from $4.70 and the Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

Headline results for Insurance Australia Group had been pre-released prior to yesterday's 1H result.

The analyst highlights 1H2 group underlying gross written premium (GWP) growth was robust with a 10% rise on the previous corresponding period, while group operating expenses declined by -4.5% due to ongoing cost discipline.

FY23 guidance remains for GWP growth of around 10% on the previous corresponding period and for a reported insurance margin of circa 10%.

This guidance implies a very strong recovery in the underlying insurance margin (UIM) in the 2H, suggests the analyst.

Morgans retains its Hold rating and increases its target to $5.24 from $5.04.

Target price is $5.24 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.32
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

Insurance Australia Group had issued a profit warning earlier but the company's December result reveals a "beat" on 'adjusted earnings' while the 6c in dividend is a big miss; market consensus was expecting 8c.

Ord Minnett points out the insurer updated guidance for FY23 to also include the financial impact of the Auckland flooding event. Gross written premia growth of around 10% signals an increase from earlier guidance of ‘mid-to-high single digit’ growth.

Also: the reported insurance margin of around 10% implies a reduction from earlier guidance of ‘14% to 16%’. The insurer has retained its “aspirational goal” to achieve a 15% to 17% insurance margin and a reported ROE of 12% to 13% over the medium term, the broker adds.

Hold. Target $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.58
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Sell (5) -

In a reversal of historical trends for the insurer, Insurance Australia Group's underlying margins fell heavily in the first half of FY23, and UBS warns a sharp margin rebound is likely optimistic.

While company guidance suggests a 4-5 percentage point recovery over the second half, UBS finds this optimistic and sees earnings risk remaining skewed to the downside in the near term.

The broker warns not to expect capital management beyond the current buyback in the near-term. The Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.30 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews base metal miners after base metal prices weakened in the past few weeks as hopes of a China-led price recovery faded.

Overall, the broker still forecasts strong upside given its assumptions are sitting below spot (copper -22% and nickel -23%).

IGO is the broker's favourite pick, along with Sandfire Resources ((SFR)) which has strong leverage to rising spot prices.

Outperform rating retained. Target price eases to $20 from $21.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $14.51 Difference: $5.49
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.17, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Buy (1) -

With Imdex having pre-released its first half result, Citi noted no surprises in the full release.

The broker expects the days of double-digit organic volume growth are behind Imdex, with the company facing tougher comparables, with pricing uplift likely to be the key driver of organic growth moving forward.

While the company has retained a net cash position up to now, Citi sees potential for management to increase its leverage ratio and facilitate growth, particularly as it increases exposure to more capital-intensive and longer-duration mining production.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.98 from $2.92. 

Target price is $2.98 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.5
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IMD as Outperform (1) -

Imdex's December-half result held few surprises on the pre-release, Macquarie describing it as solid.

Management reports a strong start to the June half, January trade outpacing previous year's (ex-Canada), and advises the upgrade of the rental fleet is continuing apace and should hasten given the addition of Devico's products.

The company advises demand for drilling optimisation is rising across all regions and expects this will outpace macro drags.

EPS forecasts rise 1% across FY23 and FY24; and 2% for FY25.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $2.85 from $2.70 to reflect the strong January start.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.37
If IMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

First half results for Imdex were in line with recent guidance. UBS points out revenue growth and average revenue per user (ARPU) were behind an earnings (EBITDA) margin increase of 90bps to 31.6%, in line with company targets for more than 30%.

No explicit earnings guidance was provided though management noted a positive start to 2H23.

The analyst likes the company's leverage to the mineral exploration cycle, after a recent 20% increase in gold/copper prices has improved customer sentiment.

The target rises to $2.75 from $2.50 after UBS allows for the recent acquisition of the Norway-based Devico.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.27
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

JB Hi-Fi's trading update suggests a moderation in sales for JB Hi-Fi Australia, which Citi notes was expected, while sales slowing from The Good Guys is picking up momentum, but also in line with the broker's expectation for household goods to weaken. 

Despite clear indicators the retail environment is becoming increasingly challenging, Citi continues to see upside risk to consensus expectations for JB Hi-Fi.

The broker finds a predicted -4% sales decline and -32% margin decline over the second half to be inconsistent with the company's current trajectory. 

The Buy rating and target price of $55.00 are retained.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $44.25 Difference: $10.75
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.28, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

JB Hi-Fi reported in line with its January update, which was in line with Credit Suisse's forecasts at the time. The broker expects trading to weaken through the second half FY23 and for sales and earnings to be below trend in 2023.

Consensus went into this update expecting sales and margin to weaken in 2H23 and so the debate is really around the extent of weakening, Credit Suisse suggests.

The broker expects sales to decline at an accelerating rate through 2H23. Inventory across the market is above normal and hence a gross margin to fall -20bp below long-term assumptions is also forecast.

Target rises to $47.75 from $47.25, Neutral retained.

Target price is $47.75 Current Price is $44.25 Difference: $3.5
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.28, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

JB Hi-Fi's December-half result held few surprises on the pre-release, but management's January trading update revealed sales growth slowed, suggesting demand may be easing across electronics and home appliances, observes Macquarie.

During the December half, the cost of doing business rose sharply but the balance sheet closes the year in a strong position; $391.2m in net cash.

Underperform rating retained. Target price edges up 0.7% to $42.40 from $42.10.

Target price is $42.40 Current Price is $44.25 Difference: minus $1.85 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.28, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results for JB Hi-Fi were pre-announced and were therefore in line with market expectations.

However, in January, like-for-like sales growth for JB Hi-Fi Australia was 1.5%, down from 4.9% in the 2Q of FY23, while The Good Guys dropped to 0% from 3.3%.

The broker expects gross profit margins will normalise (fall) to pre-covid levels for JB Hi-Fi Australia with an increase in discounting, while the margin for The Good Guys will be higher than pre-covid due to structural improvement.

The target rises to $44.30 from $42.40. The Equal-weight rating is kept as Morgan Stanley allows for a negative sales reversion, margin pressure and persistent cost-of-doing-business (CODB) inflation.

Target price is $44.30 Current Price is $44.25 Difference: $0.05
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.28, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Lighten (4) -

JB Hi-Fi's largely pre-released December-half result appears to have met Ord Minnett's forecast, the company posting a 10% compound-annual growth rate.

Given January trading revealed a slowing in consumer spending and given higher inflation and rising mortgage rates, Ord Minnett expects sales momentum will slow over the June half.

Normalisation of inventories post covid is also expected to heighten competition, says the broker, resulting in likely price discounting and margin erosion.

Lighten rating and $35.50 rating retained.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $44.25 Difference: minus $8.75 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.28, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

While JB Hi-Fi delivered year-on-year sales, earnings and net profit growth of 8.6%, 14.0% and 14.6% respectively in the first half, UBS has described the retailer's January trading results as arguably the start of a sales slowdown and the expected unwind of the sales strength enjoyed in recent years. 

UBS highlights the question for JB Hi-Fi, and other discretionary retailers, is where earnings margins can settle post-covid. The broker notes JB Hi-Fi retains its best-in-class status and an attractive dividend yield. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $46.00 are retained.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $44.25 Difference: $1.75
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.28, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LIC as Hold (3) -

Lifestyle Communities's December-half result proved a mixed bag, revenue outpacing Ord Minnett's forecasts by 11% and earnings (EBITDA) disappointing by -15%, reflecting higher corporate costs and lower home-settlement margins.

The broker sheets the higher corporate costs back to strong operating momentum, which should aid growth going forward.

Management reiterated short-term and medium-term guidance.

EPS forecasts fall an average of -1.4% across FY23 to FY25. 

Hold rating retained on valuation. Target price eases to $18.20 from $18.25.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $17.65 Difference: $0.55
If LIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

Lendlease Group's first half earnings were up 27% year on year and ahead of Credit Suisse due to timing differences and some one-offs.

Management reaffirmed that division return on invested capital and margins will be at the lower end of ranges provided at its November strategy update and that its group return on equity target of 8-10% is expected to be met by FY24.

The broker believes yesterday’s share price reaction was a function of concerns over the balance sheet as well as more one-offs, despite no real change to the FY23 or FY24 outlook.

Lendlease continues to be weighed down by negative market sentiment and the broker does not expect this to change until there is proof FY24 return targets can be hit.

Outperform retained, target falls to $10.42 from $11.75.

Target price is $10.42 Current Price is $7.79 Difference: $2.63
If LLC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

Lendlease Group's December-half earnings missed consensus forecasts by -11% and Macquarie's forecasts by -15%, the company announcing a -$200m provision relating to UK legislation on defect liabilities, and another -$39m in devaluations.

Investment management margins fell to 39% from 46%, despite higher revenue.

Macquarie says the focus now shifts to funding the pipeline, saying the company will have to either recycle capital, run higher leverage, or slow target capital.

Management retains FY24 targets, and the broker considers this a plus. Operational EPS forecasts fall -5% in FY23; and -3% in FY24 to reflect weaker investment earnings

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $8.32 from $8.74.

Target price is $8.32 Current Price is $7.79 Difference: $0.53
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Following 1H results, Morgan Stanley says its investment thesis for Lendlease Group is unchanged with longer-term production and capital targets intact. Investors, however, are faced with uncertainty in the interim via the balance sheet and the trajectory of earnings.

Profit of $105m for the half compared to the consensus and analyst's forecasts of $117m and $152m, respectively. Gearing is now at 16.8%, and is trending towards top end of the 10-20% target.

Management reiterated that return on invested capital (ROIC) and margin outcomes for its three segments in FY23 will be at
the lower end of expected ranges.

The broker lowers its target to $9.50 from $10.50. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.79 Difference: $1.71
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group's December-half result missed Ord Minnett's forecasts but the broker says the result points to a continuation in the company's recovery, and management says it is on schedule to meet its FY24 development completion target.

Ord Minnett believes this to be a reasonable assumption and promotes a long-term view over short-term noise.

Funds under management grew 8% in the half; and the company announced a -$200m provision relating to the UK regulation regarding defect liabilities.

Buy rating and $14.45 target price retained. (This compares with the October target price of $11.50 prior to Ord Minnett's switch to white-labelling of Morningstar research).

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $7.79 Difference: $6.66
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie made miniscule changes to short-term forecasts. Target remains $1.30.

Lunnon Metals remains Outperform-rated.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.38
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MCR as Neutral (3) -

Mincor Resources' target has been lowered to $1.60 (was $1.75). Macquarie made no further changes to the Neutral rating or forecasts.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.01
If MCR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MIN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse believes Mineral Resources' catalysts have largely played out, and execution risks are now rising against high expectations.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds, a balanced risk profile over next 12 months, and catalysts for re-rating remaining longer-dated prospects.

Near-term upsides stem from Mt Marion life extension, Wodgina train 3 & 4 news and lithium oxide integration development, but offset by project execution risks against high market expectations, particularly amidst lingering labour & logistics challenges, and a softening macro weighing on end-demand.

Target falls to $84 from $85.

Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $90.79 Difference: minus $6.79 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $97.59, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Neutral (3) -

Nickel Industries' earnings forecasts have been updated (lifted) through a general sector update.

Macquarie has retained its Neutral rating with a target price of $1.05.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PFP as Overweight (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners has announced the acquisition of three businesses for -$36.1m, with around 75% pertaining to
eight properties included in the transaction.

Given the property element of the transaction, Morgan Stanley expects earnings (EBITDA) margins to be around 26-27% immediately.

Management expects the acquisitions will be EPS accretive.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $5.40 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $1.05
If PFP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PRU as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse expects a continued focus on cost and capex control to see which miners have been able to tame costs, after several are now stating that whilst costs remain elevated, broader inflationary pressures have eased in recent months.

Dividends are likely to remain subdued this reporting season, the broker warns, as earnings and free cash flow remain low for some.

Credit Suisse has upgraded Perseus Mining to Outperform from Neutral on valuation. Target unchanged, but not reported.

Current Price is $1.91. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

REA Group's Indian operations continue to take market share relative to key competitor 99Acres, with REA Group India's revenue growing at twice the rate of its competitor's over the December quarter. 

Worth noting, according to Citi, is that 99Acres slowed its operating expenditure in the quarter in a bid to optimise marketing spend, improving its profitability. 

Citi considers the result a positive for REA Group, potentially alleviating some investor concern around the cost of remaining competitive in the Indian market. 

The Buy rating and target price of $141.30 are retained.

Target price is $141.30 Current Price is $119.14 Difference: $22.16
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.47, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as No Rating (-1) -

After a 1H result that highlighted the cyclicality of REA Group's business, Morgan Stanley poses the question: When will new listings return to positive growth?

For an answer in Australia, the broker looks at the similar New Zealand economy, given the central bank began raising rates there seven to eight months earlier.

Unfortunately, the analyst observes the nadir has not yet been reached for NZ real estate listings, even after 12 months of rate rises.

Conclusion: investors should not assume a V-shaped recovery in listings for the Australian market, according to Morgan Stanley, until there is an end to interest rate rises.

Morgan Stanley is under research restriction and offers no target nor rating for REA Group. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $119.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $120.47, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews base metal miners after base metal prices weakened in the past few weeks as hopes of a China-led price recovery faded.

Overall, the broker still forecasts strong upside given its assumptions are sitting below spot (copper -22% and nickel -23%).

Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), which has strong leverage to rising spot prices, is the broker's favourite pick, alongside IGO.

Outperform rating and $7 target price retained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $0.78
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Star Entertainment has pre-announced a first half earnings range -10-15% below Credit Suisse, principally due to weaker than expected revenue in Sydney.

Star continues to discuss a change to the NSW gaming tax with the government, the broker notes, and may impair the Sydney casino depending upon the tax negotiations. The potential Austrac fine is still pending.

The broker awaits more detail at the offical result release on Feb 23. Neutral and $1.80 target retained for now.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.31
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 98.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Star Entertainment has provided a sharply downgraded earnings update and guidance for FY23.

The company's FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecast missed consensus by -24% and Macquarie by -18% due to a slump in revenue.

The broker now expects a -$100m impact from proposed NSW tax changes for FY24; and a $40m cost-out benefit.

Macquarie says the focus now shifts to the balance sheet, which, depending on management's decisions, could require an equity raising.

Regulation, competition and potentially higher casino taxes in FY24 remain wildcards, all of which would be exacerbated by the tight balance sheet, says the broker. 

EPS forecasts fall -17% in FY23; -35% in FY24; and -35% in FY25. Neutral rating retained. Target price slumps to $1.55 from $3.05.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.06
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 98.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Accumulate (2) -

Star Entertainment's has pre-released much of the December-half results, which appear to have missed Ord minnett's forecasts.

The company expects to declare a non-cash impairment of between -$400m and -$1.6bn to reflect operational changes needed to meet suitability requirements ahead of Crown Sydney's opening last August, and rising casino duty rates.

A week out from the full results, the broker would appreciate more certainty on the impairment estimate.

Otherwise, the broker observes that a strong performance in Queensland casinos offset imposts from hotter competition and operational disruptions.

Accumulate rating retained, the broker's long-term view remaining intact. Target price is $2.70. This compares with the previous Buy rating and $3.35 target price in the FNArena database in November, prior to the broker's white-labelling of Morningstar research. 

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $1.21
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 98.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKT as Outperform (1) -

Sky Network Television has increased prices for its Sports tier and monthly Sky Sport Now subscriptions, having locked in key content in 2022, advises Macquarie.

The broker expects this will largely offset the company's cost inflation and higher content costs for Formula 1 and the Rugby World Cup.

Macquarie advises it holds much higher expectations for the company than does consensus in the medium term.

EPS forecasts fall -3.6% in FY23; -2.8% in FY24; and rise 1% in FY25. Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to NZ$3.52 from NZ$3.41.

Current Price is $2.35. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SRL as Neutral (3) -

Through a general sector update, Macquarie has lowered its price target for Sunrise Energy Metals to $1.95 from $2.10.

No other changes were made. Neutral.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.16
If SRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates UNI as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi finds current consensus expectations for Universal Store to be bearish, highlighting trading momentum for the key Black Friday and Christmas trading periods was strong.

The broker adds the company will be cycling undemanding comparables moving forward and there is potential for consumer spend to hold up better than expected over the second half. 

The broker also expects growth initiatives including store rollout and the acquisition of Thrills to drive short to medium term earnings growth.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $6.00 from $5.29.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.58
If UNI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Accumulate (2) -

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield's 2022 full-year result outperformed Ord Minnett's forecasts, the REIT outpacing guidance. Management guided to further earnings growth in 2023.

The broker expects lower sales proceeds going forward and observes rising bond yields have translated into a -2.6% easing in the company's shopping-centre assets' book value. But the broker says all this is offset by the faster than expected recovery.

Ord Minnett notes European rents are indexed to inflation with a one-year lag and this should flow through into the 2023 result.

The broker is less impressed with the balance sheet but notes a sharp improvement, returning debt-to-earnings to pre-pandemic levels, and expects debt to continue to fall out to 2027, when the company's interest rate hedges expire.

Accumulate rating retained.Target price rises 2% to $7.35.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $2.77
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviews Whitehaven Coal after the -38% slump in coal prices in the year to date. The broker spies a premium floor of US$180-$200 a tonne.

While the broker still appreciates the company's valuation and capital returns, Whitehaven Coal's Buy rating and $12.30 target price are under review heading into Thursday's December-half result.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $4.37
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.75, suggesting upside of 48.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources