Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

On further assessment of Adbri's result, Macquarie notes the stock is now trading well below historical multiples but can see no impetus for a re-rating at this stage. Hence a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

The good news is Adbri did show strength when it wasn't raining, and did post impressive cost controls. The bad news is it rarely stopped raining and cost cuts were not enoght to overcome inflation, pariticularly fuel costs.

Macquarie suggests the result shows cost pressures are going to linger, markedly reducing the broker's margin assumptions and offsetting any price traction. Target falls to $2.15 from $3.45.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Following a third assessment of Ampol's result (see yesterday's Broker Call), Macquarie has again raised its target price. On a first glance it raised the target to $38.30 from $38.00 but has now gone to $40.00 on forecast revisions.

Outperform retained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.13 Difference: $5.87
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.95, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

ALS has raised its first half profit guidance to $157-162m, up 25% year on year. This is above consensus but Macquarie had a $161m forecast. Last year ALS provided first half guidance of $115-125m and delivered $127m.

The company's five-year targets imply 8% compound annual revenue and earnings growth, supporting the broker's view that ALS is a high-quality company offering attractive margins and returns through the cycle and is a structural winner in a post-covid world.

Outperform and $13.20 target retained.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $1.2
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Add (1) -

ALS issued 1H23 earnings guidance between $157-$162m at the AGM which came in 12% above Morgans' expectations and around 6% ahead of market consensus.

The company also flagged 5-year revenue targets of $3.3bn by FY27, ahead of expectations, including a compound average growth rate in Life Sciences revenues of 14% (double Morgans' forecasts) and a higher EBIT margin of 19%.

The analyst views the more upbeat assessment of Life Sciences, including possible acquisitions as the major driver of higher earnings guidance for ALS, but points to the perception on peak margins for Geochem as an obstacle for the short term investors.

An Add rating is retained and the price target is raised to $15.00 from $14.38.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $3
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -

ALS' FY23 December half trading update has guided to a 6% beat on consensus' underlying net profit after tax forecasts, but was in line with UBS forecasts.

The broker says guidance implies 25% growth at the midpoint.

Management reports organic revenue growth is up double-digits, thanks to stronger geochemistry sample volumes and higher prices.

Neutral rating retained, UBS believing the share price has already factored in the bulk geochemistry testing and life sciences demand. Target price is steady at $13.15.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $1.1
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMA as Neutral (3) -

AMA Group's preannounced FY22 result outpaced guidance but UBS says the exit run-rate into FY23 raises red flags.

The broker notes staffing absenteeism continues to drag and industry data suggest labour shortages are continuing. Minimal volume was registered in the fourth quarter.

Insurers, accounting for 10% of revenue, did not agree to price increases resulting in a termination of contracts and given labour shortages, labour inflation is likely to hit as soon as volumes improve, the broker suggests.

The company retained FY23 and FY24 guidance and it has temporary minimum EBITDA covenants to meet, easing some of the broker's concern.

EPS forecasts fall -18% in FY23; -18% in FY24; and -15% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained, the broker seeking greater comfort on pricing and volume. Target price falls to 16c from 23c.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.01
If AMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANN as Buy (1) -

In further reflections upon yesterday's FY22 results for Ansell, Citi notes FY23 guidance was largely in line with expectations, and makes only marginal changes to forecasts. The target falls to $32.50 from $32.75 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

The containment of exam glove impacts is the most important point from FY23 commentary, believes the analyst. Exam glove
price normalisation is anticipated to result in a group sales decline in FY23.

In a first take yesterday, Citi assessed FY22 results for Ansell were better than expected on lower employee costs.

EPS (adjusted for the exit of Russia) was US138.6cps, 10% above the consensus forecast, and towards the top-end of the US125-145cps guidance range, explained the analyst.

Healthcare was negatively impacted by a decline in single use exam gloves and plant shutdowns (covid), noted the broker. Both causes abated in the 2H as evidenced by the 15.6% margin compared to 10.1% in the 1H.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: $5.2
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.79, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

FY22 earnings were in line with guidance while beating consensus estimates because of stronger second half healthcare margins. Ansell is guiding to lower sales in FY23 and Credit Suisse forecasts group sales will be down -4%.

EPS guidance is US$1.15-35 as cost headwinds prevail. The broker expects the lower end of the guidance range, as the top end would imply sales growth, in contrast to expectations.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform as Credit Suisse no longer envisages a negative catalyst for the stock. Target is raised to $25.20 from $24.00.

Target price is $25.20 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: minus $2.1 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.79, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANN as Outperform (1) -

Ansell reported 4% above Macquarie. Guidance for FY23 implies 7-26% constant currency growth, supported by demand for differentiated products beyond gloves and initiatives to offset rising costs.

The stock is showing valuation appeal at this level, Macquarie notes, and the balance sheet provides fexibility for growth initiatves.

Outperform retained, target rises to $29.25 from $27.85.

Target price is $29.25 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: $1.95
If ANN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.79, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Ansell's underlying FY22 EPS was a 10% beat compared to the consensus forecast. While FY23 EPS guidance was also in line, Morgan Stanley suggests effective guidance is higher, given current currency headwinds and one-off costs from closing the Russian business.

The broker downgrades its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight on an uncertain outlook and as there is only small upside to the $27.77 target price, down from $28.93. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $27.77 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: $0.47
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.79, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANN as Hold (3) -

Ansell reported FY22 earnings in line with guidance but very mixed, assesses Morgans.

Sales were lower but profits were boosted by lower tax and the exclusion of the Russian shutdown and the broker notes there are ongoing indications of a challenging operating environment.

Ansell guided to FY23 EPS of US$1.15-$1.35 after adjusting for a higher FY22 base, the discontinued Russian operations and foreign exchange headwinds.

Morgans have "materially" lowered FY23 and FY24 earnings forecasts and view the outlook for Ansell as highly uncertain as management navigates the slowing PPE demand and covid problems.

The target price is lowered to $25.52 from $27.53 and the Hold rating is retained.

The AGM is due on November 10. 

Target price is $25.52 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: minus $1.78 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.79, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANN as Buy (1) -

Ansell posted an FY22 underlying net profit slightly below Ord Minnett’s forecast. The final dividend took the full-year payout to US55.4cps versus the broker's US50cps estimate.

The company delivered an impressive turnaround in earnings in the second half, Ord Minnett notes, as the drag from the exam glove division eased, covid challenges receded, and the other health units continued to expand.

FY23 earnings are likely to be flat, however, due to the foreseeable closure of the Russian operations and a large currency headwind.

Buy retained, target rises to $32.50 from $32.00.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: $5.2
If ANN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.79, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APA as Neutral (5) -

At first glance, APA Group's preannounced June-half earnings (EBITDA) met the broker but derivatives losses, rising interest costs and higher technology expenditure drove a net-profit-after-tax miss.

FY23 dividend guidance fell -2% shy of consensus and was in line with UBS.

Management provided positive commentary on the outlook, expecting growth capital expenditure and inflation-linked revenues should flow through to earnings.

But the broker points to the sudden departure of the CEO and other senior executives and believes the company will need to clarify its strategic direction to the market.

Neutral rating and $11 target price retained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.54 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.43, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

FY22 revenue was in line with Credit Suisse estimates, given guidance was provided in May, while net profit was ahead. The main issue is whether earnings have hit a trough. The broker expects a muted recovery in FY23 and retains a Neutral rating.

Credit Suisse asserts that quality businesses are more likely to surprise to the upside, and have more enduring franchise value. Hence, the broker would like to be a buyer of ARB Corp but the view is tempered by the valuation. Target is reduced to $32.60 from $34.00.

Target price is $32.60 Current Price is $32.12 Difference: $0.48
If ARB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.31, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARB as Outperform (1) -

After having posted a strong first half, ARB Corp saw a weak second half, with sales significantly impacted by omicron and related high staff absenteeism and ongoing limited new vehicle supply, while the Ukraine war impacted export sales.

Second half sales were down -7% on the first half and profit -20%, Macquarie notes.

ARB’s medium-term growth outlook is positive, the broker suggests, underpinned by its strong brand, favourable shifts in vehicle trends and consumer demand. Short term the order book should support fist half FY23 earnings, but second half visibility is lower.

Outperform retained, target falls to $35.30 from $37.90.

Target price is $35.30 Current Price is $32.12 Difference: $3.18
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.31, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARB as Overweight (1) -

FY22 profit was in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast, and while no FY23 guidance was issued, management sees headwinds prior to  improvements in the late 1H of FY23.

Improvements are expected to arise from new models and supply, elevated backlogs, new products and healthy underlying demand, according to the company.

The broker feels demand is more resilient than more bearish market participants suggest and retains its Overweight rating and $33.00 target price. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $32.12 Difference: $0.88
If ARB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.31, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Acting upon FY22 results for ARB Corp, Ord Minnett lowers its EPS forecasts by -5-7% due to lower forecast sales growth and some margin dilution. The target slips to $39 from $45.

Underlying FY22 profit was a -3% miss versus the broker's forecast, while sales to the Australian Aftermarket increased by 9.2%, well in advance of the -2.1% fall in new vehicle sales.

The Buy rating is unchanged on a strong customer order book and a forecast late 2022 recovery in new vehicle sales.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $32.12 Difference: $6.88
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.31, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Autosports Group's FY22 results beat consensus and UBS forecasts at the normalised profit before tax level, and management guides to a positive outlook and further M&A, expecting new vehicle supply to improve through FY23 and FY24.

The company also expects used vehicle demand to remain elevated and grow at 6.9%.

The company's dividend sharply surprised to the upside at 16c, compared with UBS's forecast of 7c. The normalised gross profit margin also nosed out the broker and net margins also outpaced by 0.7 percentage points.

Revenue proved a -3% miss, normalised EBITDA proved a -23% miss. Net debt also fell short of the broker.

Buy rating and $2.90 target price retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.87
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AWC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

First half earnings (EBITDA) for Alumina Ltd, via its 40% interest in the AWAC joint venture with Alcoa, were in line with Citi's forecast though profit was a miss. An interim dividend of US4.2cps was declared.

The broker downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy as near-term alumina prices are expected to remain volatile, weighing on the 2H. It's felt FY23 may be better, on the assumption the EU gas crisis is resolved. The $1.60 target price is unchanged.

The analyst also mentions dividends may be constrained in the 2H, given the majority of capex is planned for that period.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.34
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

Alumina Ltd received US$227m from AWAC and declared a US4.2c interim dividend. The share of AWAC profit was US$176m, higher than Credit Suisse expected because of shipping revenue and statutory one-off items.

Sustaining capital expenditure in the second half will be US$175m in addition to US$20m for growth. Alumina production is expected to remain flat in the second half.

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.90 are retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.39
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Alumina Ltd posted a mixed first half result, although free cash flow and the interim dividend both were in line with Macquarie's expectations.

The broker's alumina production forecasts are at the lower end of the guidance range reflecting a conservative view on San Ciprian production rates.

Macquarie continues to expect near-term margin headwinds from increased key input costs despite favourable exchange rates. While the broker's forecasts suggest an 8-11% free cash flow yield for 2022-24, that falls to 3-6% at current spot prices.

Neutral retained. Target falls to $1.40 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Following first half results for Alumina Ltd, based on it's 40% share in the AWAC joint venture with Alcoa, Morgan Stanley believes the share price has hit a nadir. Shares are trading at a -16% discount to the broker's unchanged $1.75 target price.

Management estimates half of 2H guidance for capital expenditure is for uncommitted/smaller projects, of which part could be delayed, providing flexibility on spending.

The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.24
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Buy (1) -

Alumina Ltd's profit was -10% below Ord Minnett's forecast but the interim dividend of US4.2c was in line. Capex guidance for AWAC has been adjusted lower by -US$35m to US$305m but is still expected by management to remain elevated for three years.

Costs should be down slightly in the second half after factoring in the partial curtailment at the San Ciprian operation in Spain, and earnings should be modest.

Ord Minnett retains Buy and a $1.80 target but does not expect the stock to experience any re-rating tailwinds until there is better line of sight on alumina price gains.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.29
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its iron-ore price outlook -20% for the next 18 months.

The broker forecasts that prices will fall to US$85/t by this December quarter as subdued demand from China, particularly the property markets, and China's slower than expected recovery, sends iron-ore supply into surplus.

Earnings forecasts for BHP fall -20%. Dividend estimates also decline.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $44 from $46.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $41.46 Difference: $2.54
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.08, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLD as Sell (5) -

Following in-line FY22 results for Boral, Citi makes only minor changes to earnings forecasts and remains Sell-rated on a challenging outlook. The target rises to $2.67 from $2.57 largey because of around $685m in debt repayment that lowers interest cost forecasts.

No quantitative guidance was provided. The broker expects residential housing will slow and infrastructure will suffer potential delays due to supply and funding constraints. Additionally, multi-family pre-feasabilities were performed at lower cost to builds.

Target price is $2.67 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BLD as Underperform (5) -

FY22 earnings (EBIT) were in line with revised guidance and Boral provided no FY23 earnings guidance. Credit Suisse notes signs of improved price outcomes and better price traction because of a tight market.

The broker forecasts an EBIT recovery in FY23 via improved pricing versus costs and lower gross debt. Still, industry price outcomes have not improved enough to prevent erosion of net profits, as illustrated by the company abandoning its transformation program.

Underperform maintained. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BLD as Neutral (3) -

Boral's earnings came in ahead of Macquarie at the top end of the guidance range. The result pointed to a fundamentally solid market
environment with management noting improving non-residential and infrastructure markets offsetting slower detached housing markets from second half FY23 onwards.

The weather and cost increases nevertheless led to a weaker operational outcome than guided. Macquarie remains concerned about an unhedged energy portfolio, and while price increases are helping, costs and weather ahead remain unknown.

Neutral retained, target rises to $3.35 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.39
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLD as Hold (3) -

FY22 net profit of $35.3m was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. The broker notes the result highlighted Boral's intention to introduce pricing discipline, although the extent to which this offsets costs will be determined further over the next six months.

The broker takes a conservative view, given the poor track record in the industry for price realisation. As Ord Minnett envisages risks to the earnings outlook a Hold rating is retained. Target is lifted to $3.00 from $2.95.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.04
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BLD as Neutral (3) -

FY22 net profit was below UBS estimates while EBITDA was in line. The broker notes several one-off items will help growth in FY23 along with a recovery from pandemic and weather driven impacts from FY22.

Boral revealed a new property strategy, which results in delayed property sales and a shift to a retain/divest strategy, says UBS. The broker considers this sensible.

As the company's diesel hedge rolls off, UBS expects higher costs in FY23.

UBS is -10% below consensus estimates and expects costs will persist into FY23 despite Boral's best efforts. Neutral rating retained, the broker advising investors wait until the project mix improves to boost earnings. Target price rises to $3.25 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.29
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

While earnings were in line with guidance, Credit Suisse was surprised by the build up in inventory that was reflected in the FY22 results. The broker downgrades FY23 and FY24 estimates for earnings per share by -8% and -5%, respectively.

The short-term outlook for Breville Group's sales revenue is uncertain, the broker suggests, given macro economic factors and the cycling of pandemic-driven spending.

Breville entered the South Korean market in June and plans to expand to Poland but this is not expected to materially alter growth in the short term. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $22.28 from $28.38.

Target price is $22.28 Current Price is $21.45 Difference: $0.83
If BRG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.27, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

Breville Group's 19.4% revenue growth and 14.6% earnings growth were in line with Macquarie's forecasts. Working capital, including inventory, was slightly better than forecast.

Strength was seen in the Americas, with Europe a drag post-invasion. Gross margins were solid despite cost increases.

Management suggested FY23 outlook "appears to be one of competing macro headwinds and tailwinds". Breville brings the tailwinds of new product launches, maturing new geographies, and cost improvements, Macquarie notes.

The broker retains Outperform and a $23.35 target, seeing scope for ongoing organic growth over and above market demand.

Target price is $23.35 Current Price is $21.45 Difference: $1.9
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.27, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Following Breville Group's in-line with consensus FY22 result, Morgan Stanley suggests a strong balance sheet and a long product shelf life makes any inventory build manageable.

As per usual practice, management provided only qualitative commentary on the outlook, from which the analyst adjudges positives from new product releases, new country launches and pricing power to date.

The Overweight rating and $25 target price are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.45 Difference: $3.55
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.27, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Add (1) -

Breville Group's FY22 earnings were in line with Morgans expectations, with 19% sales growth outperforming the market and every region managing growth of 15-20%, in a tough operating environment.

The company has deliberately doubled year-end inventory to $446m against potential future supply chain problems, to ensure there are enough coffee machines and pizza ovens to meet the expected demand for 1H23.

Morgans notes the inventory growth caught the eye of both analysts and the market and is 40% higher than its own estimates, although only minor adjustments are made to the FY23 and FY24 earnings forecasts.

An Add rating and $25 target price are retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.45 Difference: $3.55
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.27, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett was impressed with the 14.6% increase in EBIT in FY22 amid strong growth in the Americas and Asia Pacific. The increase was broadly in line with expectations while the final dividend was ahead.

Going forward, Breville Group's major drivers will be organic sales growth through increased market penetration and geographic expansion as well as new product development.

Yet, given the growth achieved in recent years and the potential for more challenging conditions, Ord Minnett lowers its trajectory for earnings. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $25 from $27.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.45 Difference: $3.55
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.27, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

On closer examination, Breville Group's FY22 underlying (EBIT) result met UBS forecasts thanks to strong sales momentum in the Americas, but Europe, Middle East and Africa sales missed by -7%.

Gross margins were steady as price increases offset cost inflation.

UBS considers the EMEA sales miss to be macro driven but early FY23 trade suggests worst is behind the company.

The broker forecasts a 16% FY23-FY26 EPS compound annual growth rate.

Buy rating and $25 target price retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.45 Difference: $3.55
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.27, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CDP as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Carindale Property Trust reported FY22 funds from operations up 7.2% on FY21 but -1.5% below Ord Minnett's forecast due to slightly lower net property income. FY23 distribution guidance represents growth of 5.0%.

The result highlight for the broker was a significant lift in net tangible asset (NTA) value, up 8.4% half-on-half, driven solely by rent growth. The stock is trading at a -38% discount to NTA and offers a 5.8% forecast dividend yield.

Upgrade to Buy from Hold, target rises to $5.40 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.9
If CDP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

At first glance, FY22 EBIT of $1.88bn was slightly below Citi's estimate. Specifically, supermarkets were lower, liquor was in line and convenience beat estimates.

In FY23 Coles Group is signallinng the cycling of lockdowns in the first half and price inflation in the second half, although Citi notes price inflation has continued into July across supermarkets.

Capital expenditure is expected to be similar to FY22 while the Smarter Selling program is assessed to be on track to deliver cumulative benefits of $1bn over the four years to FY23. Citi retains a Buy rating and $21 target.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $2.3
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.35, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Neutral (3) -

FY22 earnings (EBIT), at first glance, were in line with UBS estimates, up 0.8%. Coles Group provided no quantitative update for the commencement of FY23 yet inflation is considered positive for revenue but also with increasing costs.

Smarter selling benefits were noted for FY22 with the company on track to deliver $1bn in cumulative cost savings.

UBS notes higher capital expenditure and operating expenditure for Witron and Ocado. Neutral rating and $18.70 target maintained.

Target price is $18.75 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $0.05
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.35, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses a solid FY22 result for Charter Hall Retail REIT. Earnings forecasts are increased to allow for a higher pass through of inflation. The roll forward to a new financial year also helps lift the target price to $4.30 from $3.98.

Management provided FY23 EPS guidance of 28.6cpu, representing growth of 0.7%, and DPS guidance of 25.7cpu (4.9% growth).

Citi prefers defensive convenience retail exposures, such as Neutral-rated Charter Hall Retail REIT, in the current environment, though has a preference for Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group ((SCP)) in the space.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.19
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

FY22 results were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. FY23 guidance is also in line, as expected rental growth is offset by the impact of rising funding costs.

Charter Hall Retail REIT is guiding to operating earnings per share of no less than 28.6c per security and distributions of no less than 25.7c.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating on valuation grounds but acknowledges the defensive nature of the portfolio could appeal to investors with a shorter investment horizon looking for a "safe place to hide" in the A-REIT sector. Target is reduced to $4.36 from $4.41.

Target price is $4.36 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.25
If CQR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT posted FY22 operating earnings in line with Macquarie's expectations. FY23 guidance is 4% ahead of forecast, driven by underlying growth and lower cost of debt.

The REIT is guiding to growth in FY23 and, while on the low side, it is a better outcome than many peers, the broker notes.

While hedging rolls off in 12 months time, it remains 50% hedged in FY24, with a level of inflation protection from CPI rent reviews across the petrol station portfolio.

With the stock trading -17% below net tangible asset value and offering a 6.3% dividend yield, Macquarie retains Outperform. Target rises to $4.40 from $4.23.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.29
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CQR as Underweight (5) -

After discussing FY22 results with the management of Charter Hall Retail REIT, Morgan Stanley believes the strategy to diversify away from supermarkets will be a winner in FY23.

Benefits will accrue from the 5.1% rental growth from CPI for the REIT's long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) assets, explains the analyst.

FY23 EPS guidance for 0.7% growth was a beat versus the broker's -2.5% forecast.  The Underweight rating and $3.90 target are retained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -

At first glance, FY22 results were below UBS estimates because of a reduced contribution from Europe. The outlook for store growth has been lowered and in the first seven weeks of FY23 network sales are down -2.4% with same-store sales down -1.1%.

The broker considers the Asian acquisition a positive. The Buy rating and target price of $90.00 are retained.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $67.07 Difference: $22.93
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $87.61, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EDV as Underperform (5) -

FY22 results missed expectations, largely because of costs. Credit Suisse finds the outlook for Endeavour Group in FY23 is one of moderating retail sales and increased costs associated with the transformation and wage inflation.

The broker downgrades FY23 and FY24 estimates by -4.4% and 4.6%, respectively. Underperform maintained. Target is reduced to $6.61 from $6.67.

Target price is $6.61 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Outperform (1) -

Endeavour Group's result was in line with Macquarie's expectations. Unsurprisingly, the end of covid restrictions drove consumers back to the pub at the expense of the bottle shop, hence hotel sales were strong and retail a little weak, cycling tough comparables.

Strong price appreciation was offset by higher costs.

As a staple service and product provider with significant organic reinvestment opportunity, Macquarie believes Endeavour is an attractive asset at current levels. Outperform and $7.70 target retained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0.45
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Endeavour Group reported FY22 earnings which came in slightly above Morgans expectations and in line with Bloomberg consensus.

The broker assesses the Hotels operations as much better than expected with strong margin improvements, while the Retail earnings were weak due to the costs impacts from supply chains, labour, technology and increases promotional activity.

Looking ahead the first 7 weeks of trading, Endeavour Group pointed to a continued recovery in Hotels and Retail trading is showing signs of returning to normal.

Morgans notes the quality of brands and the defensive nature of the Endeavour Group businesses but considers the stock valuation as fully priced around current levels.

Hold rating and $7.30 target price are retained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0.05
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Endeavour Group's result was in line with forecast. Ord Minnett puts the share price slide down to too-high expectations on a PE of 27x, and concerns over the retail liquor margin outlook.

Market expectations have been reset lower and consensus expectations are likely to hold up, the broker suggests, as modest retail
downgrades are offset by upgraded gaming earnings. As a result, the outlook remains positive, and broadly consistent.

Target rises to $8.50 from $8.40 while the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $1.25
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Sell (5) -

Endeavour Group's FY22 result fell just shy of consensus and nosed out UBS.

Pinnacle and premiumisation boosted retail gross margins but supply costs rose.

The broker expects supply chain costs should ease in FY23, promotions should increase, and the premiumisation boost should slow.

Overall, UBS expects the higher cost of doing business to drag on FY23 results. EPS forecasts fall -1.4% in FY23; and -2.9% in FY24.

Sell rating retained. Target price eases to $7.10 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EML as Outperform (1) -

EML Payments reported FY22 earnings just below the low end of previously reduced guidance. Some FY23 guidance commentary was provided, resulting in Macquarie now forecasting earnings declines in the period.

More detailed guidance and the findings of the new CEO’s strategic review will be provided at the AGM in late November.

With the Irish remediation program to extend into 2023 following the initial failings to address the central bank’s concerns, cost growth will remain elevated in FY23, the broker notes.

With valuation now materially re-based after a difficult year, the broker retains Outperform. Target falls to $1.55 from $3.45.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.55
If EML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 114.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EML as Neutral (3) -

In an early response to EML Payments' full year results, UBS notes the company delivered a strong top line result but higher costs weighed and dragged earnings into a guidance miss.

The broker notes guidance for FY23 suggests the challenges EML Payments faced in the last year will persist, with implied earnings guidance of $34m in the coming year a miss on UBS's forecast $54m and consensus forecasts of $60m.

Rate rises should, however, partly offset forecast increases in operating expenditure (which should eventually deliver efficiency savings.)

EPS forecasts fall -18% in FY23; -4% in FY24 and -3% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $1.15 from $1.05.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.15
If EML meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 114.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie downgrades its iron-ore price outlook -20% for the next 18 months.

The broker forecasts that prices will fall US$85/t by this December quarter as subdued demand from China, particularly the property market, and China's slower than expected recovery, sends iron-ore supply into surplus.

Earnings forecasts for Fortescue Metals fall more than -30%. Dividend estimates also step down.

Underperform rating retained. Target price falls to $14.50 from $16.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $19.04 Difference: minus $4.54 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.61, suggesting downside of -13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GEM as Buy (1) -

At first glance, G8 Education's June first-half result appears to have met the broker, albeit a mixed bag as underlying EBIT outpaced consensus by 10% but underlying net profit after tax missing by -12%.

EPS missed the broker by -9% and the dividend outpaced at 1c, compared to UBS's 0.7c.

The broker considers the result to be a tale of two quarters, as covid hit the first quarter, and a successful transformation program and higher pricing helped offset cost inflation in the second.

Management guided to a stronger second half. The broker expects occupancy trends should improve in the December half and admires the company's strong cost and wage management, albeit labour shortages and covid absenteeism are likely to continue to drag.

Buy rating and $1.34 target retained.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.37
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Underlying net profit in FY22 was ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The broker notes higher levels of ongoing expenditure have re-emerged as an investment risk and, if persisting, present downside risk to valuation.

Hub24 has lowered its FY24 target for funds under administration to $80-89bn and the broker estimates that to hit the mid to upper end of this target will require a sustained rally in the equity market and an acceleration in flows.

Amid expectations for ongoing market share gains Credit Suisse reiterates an Outperform rating, reducing the target to $33 from $34.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: $8.52
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Hub24's underlying result was in line with Macquarie, with the 20c dividend 3c ahead. FY24 funds under management guidance has been reduced due to market movements and disruption from obtaining advice fee consents.

The full benefit of cash rate increases will flow through in the first half, hence Macquarie currently forecasts revenue margins to increase.

With flows showing signs of bouncing back on improvements in markets, Hub24's earnings growth profile at the current multiple relative to history does not appear stretched, the broker suggests.

Outperform retained, target falls to $30.30 from $30.90.

Target price is $30.30 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: $5.82
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Add (1) -

Morgans viewed the FY22 earnings report from Hub24 as broadly in line. Key highlight was a 58.8% rise in Platform.

A Buy rating is retained and the price target is raised to $27.10 from $27.05. Revenue proved slightly lower than the broker's expectations but went up 7.6% on the 1H22; Class added $23.9m in revenues, and operating cashflow rose 113% on a year ago.

Looking ahead, Hub24 guided to FY24 Platform FUA target of $80-$89bn, down slightly and resulting from a market decline in the 2H22, while synergies from Xplore and Class should deliver $12-$14m from FY24 onwards.

Morgans considers Hub24 will become a market leader with Netwealth ((NWL)) in the platform sector. A Buy rating is maintained and the target price is raised to $27.10 from $27.05.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: $2.62
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Flows appear subdued compared with a year ago yet Ord Minnett expects Hub24 will drive a meaningful increase in net new business and produce strong earnings and dividend growth.

The platform segment drove the better-than-expected results and the broker increases estimates for underlying earnings per share by 4-5% over the forecast period.

The stock is Ord Minnett's top pick in the platform sector and a Buy rating is reiterated. Target is raised to $32 from $30.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: $7.52
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

First half results beat Citi's estimates. Profit, at first glance, was boosted by strong contribution from Deterra Royalties ((DRR)) and an FX gain along with a $25.6m net impairment reversal.

The broker notes the company remains bullish on product pricing, given demand and a tight supply chain. Buy rating and $11.25 target retained.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $9.45 Difference: $1.8
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

First half earnings, at first glance, appeared strong, with operating earnings (EBITDA) 6% ahead of Macquarie's forecasts.  The beat was largely derived from non-cash items, as free cash flow was within 2% of forecasts.

Iluka Resources has signalled zircon demand in China has softened but the market remains tight for premium zircon. Demand is still robust in Europe despite the higher power costs.

A prefeasibility study on Wimmera is expected later in 2022. Outperform rating and $12.10 target maintained.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $9.45 Difference: $2.65
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Hold (3) -

In an initial response, Ord Minnett notes underlying first half earnings were in line with forecasts while the interim dividend was -15% below.

Iluka Resources highlighted pricing is still trending upward but high energy costs in Europe have affected tile production and there are ongoing outages throughout China. No changes were made to guidance.

At Eneabba the EPCM and ground preparation contracts have been awarded. The second SR kiln at Capel is on track for commissioning in the December quarter. Hold rating and $10.50 target maintained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.45 Difference: $1.05
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial glance, UBS has spotted a FY22 "beat" accompanied by guidance for strong EBIT in FY23, with more growth on the horizon medium-term.

It appears all of underlying profit, EPS and dividend have beaten both market consensus and UBS's estimates.

FY23 guidance looks very strong at the EBIT level (30%-35% growth) but at the EPS level 5%-10% is below UBS's forecast of 13% and market consensus sitting at 14%, the broker points out.

Neutral. Target $3.92.

Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates KGN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse notes selling costs moderated in the second half of FY22 and price increases for Kogan First should provide additional support in FY23. A small profit is now expected in FY23, with estimates for FY24 and FY25 upgraded by 38% and 30%, respectively.

As the stock has underperformed in the wake of the result and the cash position is better, Kogan.com is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target increases to $3.66 from $3.44.

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.11
If KGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Kogan's pre-announced result met consensus and UBS forecasts.

The highlight from the broker's perspective was falling fixed costs and warehouse expenses as inventory wound down.

But UBS casts a wary eye to the top-line led operating deleverage, should consumer spending slow further as suggested by June-half trading.

Add to that a constrained balance sheet (albeit net cash), and the broker retains its Sell rating. EPS forecasts fall -71% in FY23 and -10% in FY24. Target price is unchanged at $3.15.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

FY22 results beat Credit Suisse forecasts and the outlook for FY23 is now considered more positive, largely because of an improved outlook for development earnings and the benefits from the cost-saving strategy.

The broker revises FY23 estimates down by -0.5% and increases FY24 by 1.4%. Credit Suisse assesses Lendlease Group screens attractively for patient investors and maintains an Outperform rating. Target is steady at $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.27 Difference: $1.73
If LLC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.41, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MAH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Macmahon has delivered solid financial and cash flow results in its full year report, with revenue and earnings up 26% and 11% year-on-year respectively, and both within 3% of the broker's forecasts. 

A margin decrease to 5.9% from 7.1% was attributed to higher operating costs, but the broker notes guidance for the coming year implies margin recovery, with revenue guidance of $1.6-1.7bn and earnings guidance of $105-125m implying margins will increase to 6.6-7.4%.

Macquarie lifts its earnings per share forecast 7% for FY23, and 2% in the following years. The Outperform rating and target price of $0.20 are retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.02
If MAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its iron-ore price outlook -20% for the next 18 months.

The broker forecasts that prices will fall to US$85/t by this December quarter as subdued demand from China, particularly the property market, and China's slower than expected recovery, sends iron-ore supply into surplus.

Earnings forecasts for Mineral Resources fall -20%. Dividend estimates also step down.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $91 from $95.

Target price is $91.00 Current Price is $61.75 Difference: $29.25
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $74.76, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MND as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

FY22 net profit and revenue were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. No guidance was provided. The broker lifts FY23-24 estimates for earnings per share by 6.3-9.0%.

The broker is now more positive about Monadelphous Group because of the prospective margins, expecting the run rate margin to be approaching 7% by the end of the first half which positions FY24 for an EBITDA margin greater than 7%.

Credit Suisse acknowledges this view relies heavily on execution but believes the company has earned the benefit of the assumption, raising the rating to Outperform from Neutral and the target lifts to $14.10 from $10.30.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $12.11 Difference: $1.99
If MND meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MND as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Monadelphous Group reported full year net profit of $52m, ahead of the broker's and consensus forecasts.

The broker highlights margins increased 20 basis points on the previous year, and it anticipates further growth in the coming year, expecting the company to win work on better terms in FY23.

Further, the broker noted Monadelphous Group's selective approach should support margin recovery to pre-covid levels in coming years, but also adds the company needs to land a number of its pipeline opportunities in the next six months.

The broker is anticipating a revenue decline in the first half of FY23, but a lift in the second half to drive an overall flat year, before strong expected growth in FY24. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $13.02 from $12.00.

Target price is $13.02 Current Price is $12.11 Difference: $0.91
If MND meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MND as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Monadelphous Group reported an FY22 underlying net profit just ahead of Ord Minnett’s forecast. The final dividend took the full-year payout to 49cps versus the broker's 40cps expectation.

The strong result was driven by robust demand for maintenance services, the broker notes. Supportive commodity prices enabled buoyancy in key resources and energy end-markets, with oil and gas activity also increasing.

Engineering construction saw a significantly weaker performance in the second half as key projects completed in the first half, but the next wave will ramp up in FY23.

Target rises to $12.50 but Ord Minnett downgrades to Accumulate from Buy on valuation.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $12.11 Difference: $0.69
If MND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Monadelphous Group's FY22 EBITDA outpaced consensus forecasts by 7% and met UBS, thanks to a -1% fall in sales, which outpaced guidance and consensus forecasts of -5% to -10%.

Revenue fell -14% year on year in the second half as iron-ore construction projects were prioritised and the Maintenance division delivered record revenues, thanks to a catch-up on delayed projects.

Monadelphous Group did not provide earnings guidance for FY23 but envisages tendering activity will remain buoyant across the construction and maintenance markets.

Labour shortages will still constrain capacity. FY23 revenue is to be skewed to the second half. Much will depend on contract wins and labour, says the broker.

EPS forecasts rise 3% in FY23 and 9% in FY24.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Nanosonics reported FY22 earnings in line with expectations and the recent trading updates, notes Morgans, with the results benefiting from a tax benefit and lower operating costs.

To implement the full transition to a direct sales model, the company has increased inventory by 91% to $22.6m. Nanosonics is now responsible for 91% of the new installed base and 86% of the 4Q upgrades.

Morgans adjusts EBITDA forecasts by -6% and -4% for FY23 and FY24 after a downgrade in guidance from management, with the analyst pointing out the launch of the CORIS via the de Novo path which could take a couple of years.

The target price is adjusted very marginally to $4.87 from $4.86.

Morgans downgrades the rating to Hold from Add as the stock has reached the price target.

Target price is $4.87 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.19
If NAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi acknowledges the potential of higher for longer coal prices from an ongoing EU gas crisis, but decided to downgrade its rating for New Hope to Sell from Neutral. Buy-rated Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) is preferred for thermal coal exposure. The $3.00 target is unchanged.

The broker's decision follows a 98% share price rally in six months as thermal coal prices have breached new highs.

Following fourth quarter results, underlying FY22 earnings (EBITDA) came in 23% above the analyst's forecast.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: minus $2.1 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Lighten (4) -

FY22 underlying operating profit of $235.3m was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. The beat was primarily because of Australian resident health insurance, although other divisions were also ahead of forecasts.

It appears there has been a strong rebound in nib Holdings' travel and international inbound health insurance with the possibility of a return to pre-pandemic levels sooner rather than later.

Ord Minnettt suspects all health insurers are benefiting from lower claims but prefers Medibank Private ((MPL)), given a lower PE multiple and an ungeared balance sheet. Lighten rating maintained. Target is raised to $7.50 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.73, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has been surprised by the drawing down of the revolving credit facility, which stems from the delay of a fifth shipment and was secured in April 2021 as part of the US$45m financing package with Trafigura. The facility is now fully drawn.

The company has signalled a previously planned August shipment has been delayed because of ongoing tightness in international sea freight markets, with 11,000t of nickel-copper-cobalt concentrate now stockpiled at Wyndham.

Macquarie now expects there will be only one shipment during the first quarter of FY23. On the positive side, Panoramic Resources has arranged the revolving credit facility for use in these situations and this will not affect the ramp up at Savannah in FY23.

Outperform rating and a 25c price target are under review.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.02
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Following FY22 results for Pilbara Minerals, Citi retains its Buy rating and $3.60 target price. Earnings (EBITDA) and underlying profit were a -3% miss compared to the analyst's forecasts.

The broker expects a maiden dividend in the 2H of FY23. Prices for spodumene remain elevated and the analyst's recent trip to Western Australia inspired greater conviction in a "higher for longer" lithium call.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.33
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PLS as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

FY22 earnings missed forecasts. FY23 guided costs are 11% above consensus estimates. As a result, Credit Suisse downgrades Pilbara Minerals to Underrperforrm from Neutrral.

Nevertheless, the short-term macro environment is considered supportive, with upside from possible capital management at the December AGM when a maiden dividend policy may be introduced.

The broker suggests this could start attracting yield investors, supporting valuation. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals has delivered a weaker full year result than Macquarie had expected, with earnings disappointing by -8% and profit by -5%. The broker notes the miss appears to reflect provisional pricing adjustments.

Initial guidance ranges for the coming year are largely in line, with the company guiding to spodumene production of 540-580,000 tonnes, a more than 50% year-on-year increase. 

Macquarie notes combined with anticipated higher spodumene prices, this should see Pilbara Minerals deliver an almost three-fold earnings and cash flow increase. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $5.60 are retained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $2.33
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

FY22 net profit was below Ord Minnett's forecast and no dividend was declared, as expected. FY23 production guidance is ahead of expectations, at 540-580,000t, with a faster ramp up of Ngungaju although costs are also guided to be higher, at US$445-490/dmt.

Pilbara Minerals has indicated delays for long lead items are more of a concern than labour shortages. Ord Minnett remains constructive on the lithium market outlook as deficits persist that should keep prices elevated.

Yet the stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy as it is trading in line with valuation, given the recent run up in the share price. Target is $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.23
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRN as Outperform (1) -

Perenti Global delivered a solid full year result according to Macquarie, with revenue, cash flow and earnings all better than the broker had anticipated, although a year-on-year earnings margin decline was a negative.

Guidance for the coming year was largely in line with the broker's expectations, with Perenti Global guiding to revenue of $2.4-2.5bn and earnings of $185-205m. 

Macquarie notes guidance implies margin improvement to 7.7-8.2%, with the company continuing to target margins above 10% by FY25.

The Outperform rating and target price of $0.80 are retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.08
If PRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REH as Sell (5) -

At first glance, Reece's FY22 full-year result outpaced Citi's earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 2%, a 20% jump in US pricing led to an 8% segment beat, boosting margins (up 50 basis points).

While the store count disappointed in the face of higher capital expenditure, Citi observes strong balance sheet leverage heading into a slowdown.

Australian trade was in line with consensus, inflation rising 9% over the year and the company's EBITDA margin narrowing -150 basis points.

No specific guidance was given. Sell rating and $16.83 target price retained.

Target price is $16.83 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $1.53
If REH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.00, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REH as Neutral (3) -

FY22 results, at first glance, were in line with Macquarie's estimates, with revenue up 22% and underlying net profit up 27%. Reece asserts it has passed the peak of the cycle in end markets and is prepared for weaker conditions.

Macquarie notes normalised EBITDA margins declined -95 basis points to 15%. Neutral rating and $15.80 target maintained.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $0.5
If REH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.00, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REH as Underweight (5) -

As part of Reece's FY22 results presentation, management commentary included “Looking ahead, we believe we are past the peak of the cycle in our end markets and are prepared for softening conditions."

Despite these comments, and a likely negative share price fall in reaction to them, Morgan Stanley notes a quality business, though cautions on currently-high multiples. The Underweight rating and $16.10 target are retained. Industry view In-Line. 

Group revenue was a 6% beat versus the broker's forecast, while earnings were a 3% beat.

The 15cps final dividend was in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $0.8
If REH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.00, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its iron-ore price outlook -20% for the next 18 months.

The broker forecasts that prices will fall to US$85/t by this December quarter as subdued demand from China, particularly the property markets, and China's slower than expected recovery, sends iron-ore supply into surplus.

Earnings forecasts for Rio Tinto fall -20%. Dividend estimates also step down.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target price falls to $100 from $116.00.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $97.66 Difference: $2.34
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $107.50, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

Following 1H results for Scentre Group, Citi makes a slight increase to funds from operations (FFO) estimates to capture greater pass-through of inflation from leases with terms of CPI plus 2%. The target rises to $3.00 from $2.81.

While the analyst keeps a Neutral rating, there is potential for near-term outperformance against sector peers that have had greater share price rallies.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.16
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SCG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

First half results were well ahead of estimates, largely from lower-than-expected rent relief. While finance costs were also below estimates, these are expected to increase meaningfully in the second half.

Scentre Group is now guiding to free funds in 2022 above $0.19, signalling growth of 14.2%. Distribution guidance is "at least" $0.15. The  broker suspects the company will look to provide higher distributions in the future although there could be some variability in the pay out.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform as, while the broker remains attracted to the quality portfolio, investor sentiment is likely to hinder a further meaningful recovery in the share price. Target is lowered to $3.08 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.08 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.24
If SCG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Scentre Group delivered a strong first half beat, with fund from operations of 10.6 cents per share 9% above the broker's forecast and 12% over consensus, but the company's full year guidance implies a softer second half is ahead. 

The broker notes full year guidance of 19 cents per share could be demonstrating some conservatism, and Macquarie is forecasting full year funds from operations of 19.9 cents per share, noting this still equates to a -12% half-on-half decline. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $2.79 are retained.

Target price is $2.79 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Equal-weight (3) -

While 1H results for Scentre Group were a strong beat against consensus forecasts, 2H guidance implies to Morgan Stanley a potential -20% earnings decline half-on-half. Despite this, the group is the broker's preferred exposure to large-scale retail.

First half funds from operations (FFO) of 10.6cps exceeded the analyst's 9.4cps forecast. It's felt the direct impact of covid on rental income has largely dissipated. The target lifts to $3.00 from $2.90 and the Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.16
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Scentre Group reported first-half funds from operations 18% above the same period last year and 6.9% ahead of Ord Minnett’s forecast, due to lower rental assistance and net property income ahead of forecast.

Retail metrics improved across all measures in the half, the broker notes, including sales, visitation, leasing spreads, occupancy, rent, collections and income.

FY guidance is for funds from operations up 14.2% on 2021 and at least 15.0cps distribution, up 5.3%.

Buy retained, target rises to $3.20 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.36
If SCG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Following FY22 results for SiteMinder, Ord Minnett lowers its EPS estimates due largely to the mix effect of higher assumed transaction average revenue per user (APRU) growth, lower subscriber ARPU growth and higher costs. 

The broker, however, raises its target to $5.73 from $5.61 after applying a higher multiple. The Buy rating is retained as materially stronger long-term earnings (than pre-covid) are expected.

The analyst  highlights a company transformation from being channel manager (product) centric to one that is investing for long-term sustainable growth.

Target price is $5.73 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $1.8
If SDR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDR as Buy (1) -

On closer examination of yesterday's FY22 results, SiteMinder revenue outpaced the consensus by 15% and UBS by 1%.

UBS notes accelerating 4Q momentum for revenue, while slightly higher operating costs were behind an earnings (EBITDA) miss. It's thought the share market will reward free cash flow neutral guidance by 4Q24.

EPS forecasts fall -5% in FY23; and rise 7% in FY24; and 27% in FY25.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $6.80 from $7.20 to reflect rising forecast costs.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $2.87
If SDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

In a first look at today's FY22 results for Sonic Healthcare, Citi determines revenue and earnings (EBITA) provided beats compared to consensus forecasts of 7% and 4%, respectively, driven by covid testing.

Across the globe, revenue for the base business grew by 2.1% on the previous corresponding period though lagged circa 4% industry growth, explains the analyst. No guidance was provided and the outlook is thought to rely on the level of covid testing.

The analyst is not expecting any sizeable share price reaction to the results. The Neutral rating and $34 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $33.19 Difference: $0.81
If SHL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.30, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SOM as Add (1) -

There were no significant surprises for Morgans from SomnoMed's FY22 earnings report with sales up 16%, in line with expectations and EBITDA margins at a "solid" 70%.

SomnoMed is on track for the global launch of Rest Assure in FY23 and the strategy of investing for growth at the expense of underlying profitability remains in tack according to Morgans.

The uncertainty around the success of Rest Assure remains, but success would extend SomnoMed's leading market position and potentially an issue for CPAP operators, making the company a takeover target in the future, suggests the broker.

An Add rating is maintained and the price target is lowered to $1.88 from $1.91.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.58
If SOM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SRL as Neutral (3) -

Following the release of Sunrise Energy Metals' full year results, Macquarie notes earnings were within $1m of the broker's estimates, while revenue delivered a 110% beat on higher government grant revenue.

The broker anticipates earnings and cash flow from Sunrise Energy Metals to remain low until development of the company's Sunrise Project begins, which the broker expects will be the end of FY25. 

Macquarie notes securing a partner for funding and offtake remains a key catalyst for the company in the coming year.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.50 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If SRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SSM as Neutral (3) -

On preliminary results, Macquarie notes Service Stream's revenue and underlying earnings both appear in line with the broker's expectations, while net profit was an -8% miss. The broker expects revenue and profit growth in the coming year. 

The broker highlighted the company delivered $10m in annualised run-rate synergies, ahead of the company's target, with further synergy potential remaining with the company expecting to deliver $17m in synergies by November 2023.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.86 from $1.00.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.01
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSM as Buy (1) -

FY22 earnings (EBITDA) and profit (NPATA) for Service Stream were misses versus Ord Minnett's forecasts by -4% and -16%, respectively. The 1cps dividend was lower than expected.

Apart from impacts from a profit provision on one construction project and pressure on metering service margins, the analyst assesses the base business performance was healthy.

Within the Telco segment, 2H margins were higher and synergies accrued from the Lendlease services ((LLC)) acquisition. The Buy rating is retained, while the target falls to $1.14 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.29
If SSM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources