Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Sell (5) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker lifted 29Metals' FY25 and FY27 EBITDA forecasts by 4-6% on higher base metal forecasts, but cut FY26 by -10% on forex.

Target price rises to 15c from 12c. Sell retained.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

Hold retained for 29Metals. Target unchanged at 30c.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.05
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes management at Aurelia Metals has delayed positive free cash flow expectations to FY28, roughly 12 months later than previously forecast by the broker, due to higher operating costs and weaker by-product pricing.

The company's investor day included new FY26 guidance and FY27-28 outlook, with group operating costs around 20% above prior Macquarie estimates.

Production is expected to ramp to circa 40kt copper equivalent by FY28 via a centralised facility at the Peak operations. explains the analyst.

Macquarie acknowledges the company's solid balance sheet, with $107m in cash and no debt, providing flexibility to self-fund growth.

Macquarie lowers its target price to 25c from 32c on reduced earnings forecasts and maintains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.045
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS has done a detailed analysis of ANZ Bank, noting it has been one of the largest underperformers among its coverage in the past five years (-66%). The broker's analysis suggests the bank's biggest weakness is the retail division.

Scenario analysis suggests up to 16% uplift to group EPS is possible, if the bank follows Macquarie Group's ((MQG)) playbook of deposit gathering and mortgage broker-led model..

The broker cut the DPS forecast for FY25 by -25%, FY26 by -12% and FY27 by -13% on the expectation the new CEO will want to manage the bank at a stronger CET1 of around 12%. 

The broker also trimmed FY26-27 net interest margin forecast by -2bps and slightly lifted the costs estimates.

Target price cut to $26.50 from $30.00. Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $28.39 Difference: minus $1.89 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.67, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

Hold retained for Bellevue Gold. Target price $1.10.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.16
If BGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 52.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker cut BHP Group's DCF forecasts by -3% on higher spot AUD/USD and lower iron ore price forecasts.

Target price cut to $43 from $45. Buy retained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $36.21 Difference: $6.79
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.53, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans downgrades BHP Group to Accumulate from Buy and lowers the target price to $43.70 (from $48.70).

The broker has revised down iron ore forecasts to US$89/t for FY26, with the long-term price unchanged at US$77/t, and has downgraded the sector view to Neutral from Overweight. The iron ore price is expected to slip to the mid-US$80s/t in 2H 2025, prior to a supply-side response.

Morgans explains Chinese export profits are under pressure from tariffs, and Beijing is anticipated to adopt an enforcement policy on high-emission mills to cut production.

For BHP, iron ore represents 55% of FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast, so every US$5/t price move impacts earnings by 2%, both up and down. A decline in the iron ore price below US$80/t would force a dividend cut, the analyst warns.

Target price is $43.70 Current Price is $36.21 Difference: $7.49
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.53, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

EPS forecast for BHP Group cut by -3% for FY25 and -5% for FY26.

Accumulate. Target trimmed to $41 from $42.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $36.21 Difference: $4.79
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.53, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker cut Champion Iron's FY26-27 EBITDA forecast by -7% and -16%, respectively, on lower iron ore price forecasts.

Target price cut to $6.50 from $7.30. Buy retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $2.43
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

The analyst lifted Capricorn Metals' FY25 EPS forecast by 5% and FY26 by 11%.

Hold. Target price $10.90.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $10.52 Difference: $0.38
If CMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.44, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSC as Buy (1) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

Target price for Capstone Copper rises to $10.70 from $10.50 on forex moves. Buy retained.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $8.45 Difference: $2.25
If CSC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

The analyst lifted Capstone Copper's FY25 EPS forecast by 5% but cut the FY26 estimate by -34%. The stock is among the broker's top picks for base metals exposure.

Buy. Target unchanged at $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.45 Difference: $3.55
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has lowered its Seqirus growth forecasts for CSL following several vaccine-related regulatory leadership changes in the US in recent months. Changes include an overhaul of the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel last week.

The broker sees changes as contributing to broader negative sentiment and fatigue in the US, which is likely to linger over the coming seasons. CSL’s US flu vaccine business makes up around 8% of group revenue and circa 10% of group earnings, notes Bell Potter.

More positively, the analysts consider the double-digit earnings outlook for CSL remains intact (on a reported basis), and consider the company well positioned for mid-term recovery supported by new product launches and improving margins.

Bell Potter lowers its target price to $305 from $335 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $305.00 Current Price is $240.21 Difference: $64.79
If CSL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $321.79, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CXO as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

No change to Core Lithium's Hold rating and 11c target price.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.022
If CXO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DLI as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

No change to Delta Lithium's Hold rating and 17c target price.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If DLI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Buy (1) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker trimmed FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts for Deterra Royalties by -5% on lower iron price forecasts. Target price cut to $4.40 from $4.50. Buy retained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.74
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.09, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DRR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

The analyst cut Deterra Royalties' FY25 EPS forecast by -1% and FY26 by -6%.

Buy. Target unchanged at $4.30.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.64
If DRR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.09, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EMR as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

The analyst lifted FY25 EPS forecast for Emerald Resources by 5% and FY26 by 11%.

Lighten. Target rises to $4.10 from $3.60.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If EMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker cut Evolution Mining's FY25 EBITDA forecast by -1%, FY26 by -4% and FY27 by -2% on lower gold price forecasts.

Target price cut to $8.00 from $8.50. Neutral retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.82 Difference: $0.18
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FFM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

Buy retained for FireFly Metals. Target price $1.60.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.525
If FFM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 61.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Following the latest commodity price update, Citi had downgraded the rating for Fortescue to Neutral from Buy. The target price is lowered to $16.00 from $17.50.

The broker cut FY26-27 EBITDA forecast by -3% and -6%, respectively, on lower iron ore prices and higher spot AUD/USD.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.69 Difference: $1.31
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.42, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Morgans downgrades Fortescue to Hold from Buy with a target price of $16.50 (from $18.80).

The broker has revised down iron ore forecasts to US$89/t for FY26, with the long-term price unchanged at US$77/t, and has downgraded the sector view to Neutral from Overweight. The iron ore price is expected to slip to the mid-US$80s/t in 2H 2025, prior to a supply-side response.

Morgans explains Chinese export profits are under pressure from tariffs, and Beijing is anticipated to adopt an enforcement policy on high-emission mills to cut production.

The analyst highlights Fortescue generates 100% of earnings from iron ore, giving the company greater sensitivity to every US$5/t move in the price.

Taking into account the gearing to iron ore for funding Fortescue's energy targets, the analyst points to an earnings mix (EBITDA) that is closer to 115% leveraged to iron ore.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $14.69 Difference: $1.81
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.42, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

The analyst lowered Fortescue's FY25 EPS forecast by -4% and FY26 by -5%.

Buy. Target unchanged at $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $14.69 Difference: $5.31
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.42, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GL1 as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

Rating downgraded for Global Lithium Resources to Hold from Accumulate. Target unchanged at 20c.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.065
If GL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.85, suggesting upside of 504.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HAS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

Hold rating for Hastings Technology Metals. Target price 28c.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $27.74
If HAS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10669% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update for Citi, the analyst downgrades IGO Ltd to Neutral from Buy, with the key price forecast revision for lithium down by -15% to -20% over the next three years.

The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The broker made significant downward revisions to earnings forecasts on lithium price downgrades.

Target price cut to $4.10 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.2
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has revised its commodity price forecasts, with the biggest downgrades made to lithium price forecasts. Among others, gold price forecasts lifted for 2025-27 by 7-10%, and iron ore, coking coal and uranium price estimates raised for 2025.

The broker cut aluminium and nickel price forecasts for 2025-27, and the copper price for 2026.

The analyst cut IGO Ltd's FY25 EPS forecast by -14%.

Buy. Target cut to $5.20 from $6.00.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $1.3
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Buy (1) -

In a discussion of the share price volatility last week, Citi notes the final resolution on Lifestyle Communities' VCAT hearing related to disputes with residents over fees and contracts on land lease has not yet been achieved.

The broker sees the volatility as a buying opportunity on improving housing auction clearance rates, particularly in Melbourne, due to rate cuts. 

At current prices, the broker reckons the market is either valuing development business below the cost of assets or writing down the deferred management fee completely.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $2.31
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.44, suggesting upside of 38.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group completed the sale of Capella Capital to Sojitz Corp and Citi notes this will contribute $70m in after-tax profits to FY25. There's also $145m after-tax profit from the military housing sale and $10-30m from the UK JV announced before.

The broker expects more asset sales in the near term, including the Australian retirement business and the TRX retail in Malaysia, before the company begins buybacks, which is a key near-term catalyst.

However, there are also fund management uncertainties, with a recent article highlighting property managers are eyeing the company's APPF funds. The funds contribute around $10bn to AUM, and the broker believes losing it would hurt the company's growth story.

FY25 earnings lifted slightly on asset sale profits, but FY26-27 cut on revised development and investment earnings assumptions.

Buy. Target cut to $6.80 from $7.50 on earnings revisions and valuation shift from DCF to average of DCF and sum-of-the-parts.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $1.22
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades Lovisa Holdings to Neutral from Sell with a higher target price of $30 from $26 due to better-than-expected store growth and upside from Jewells, UBS states.

The previous 'Sell' rating was predicated on a slowdown in store growth since the robust FY23 at 172. Recent indications show a pick-up in store growth, notably in Europe, alongside the new Jewells format, which is expected to generate further store and sales acceleration.

Visiting two new UK Jewells stores in White City and Reading, UBS highlights a more "luxurious format" and a generally larger store size with a higher price range, aiming for the "aspirational millennial" customer.

The analyst revises EPS estimates down in FY25 by -2.8%, and up 2.8% for FY26 and 5.5% for FY27, and highlights the positive management changes, including Mark McInnes to Executive Deputy Chairman, to complement new CEO John Cheston.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.83 Difference: $0.17
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.68, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update for Citi, the analyst downgrades Liontown Resources to Sell from Neutral, with the key price forecast revision for lithium down by -15% to -20% over the next three years.

The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

Target price unchanged at 50c as the broker shifted valuation multiple to 1.0x NAV from 0.8x on production de-risking. 

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: minus $0.155 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LTR as Downgrade to Sell from Lighten (5) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett downgrades Liontown Resources to Sell from Lighten with a lower target price of 45c from 50c. 

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: minus $0.205 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie maintains its $8.00 target for Lynas Rare Earths but downgrades to Underperform from Neutral on valuation, despite a constructive production and price outlook.

In a significant milestone, according to the broker, the company delivered its first Dysprosium Oxide (Dy) and Terbium Oxide (Tb) from its heavy rare earths (HRE) separation circuit. However, the analyst sees limited near-term earnings contribution from HRE production.

Macquarie warns lack of progress in China/US trade talks, and the potential release of held-up HRE products, could dampen market sentiment.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $9.28 Difference: minus $1.28 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.14, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Buy (1) -

Magnetic Resources has announced an agreement with the Wangkatja Tjungula Aboriginal Corporation (WTAC) over the development of the Lady Julie Gold Project.

Shaw and Partners expects mining permits to be granted in 3Q 2025, and the latest mineral resource is 1.9Moz at 1.8g/t Au, with the Lady Julie North 4 deposit accounting for 80% of the total.

The analyst assumes a 1% net smelter return royalty.

The broker retains a positive view on the stock. Buy, High Risk rating and $2.53 target are maintained for Magnetic Resources.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.98
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

No change to $20 target price and Neutral rating for Mineral Resources.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.69 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.89, suggesting upside of 41.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains Mineral Resources as a key pick, underpinned by an undervalued Mining Services division, balance sheet flexibility, and execution upside from Onslow.

The broker expects FY26 Mining Services earnings (EBITDA) to reach $920m, or $835m excluding Mt Marion, equating to a $5bn valuation, 115% of the current market capitalisation.

Asset sales, including a partial Mining Services stake, remaining Onslow haul road equity, and loan receivables, could be used to strengthen the balance sheet if required, note the analysts.

The company's debt profile is considered serviceable, with net debt/earnings improving to 2.2x times in FY26, and additional Onslow volumes by FY27 offering further deleveraging potential.

The broker maintains its $35 target and Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $20.69 Difference: $14.31
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.89, suggesting upside of 41.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating on Mineral Resources with an unchanged target price of $31. The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -20% for FY25 and -64% for FY26.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $20.69 Difference: $10.31
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.89, suggesting upside of 41.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating on Newmont Corp with a higher target price of $115 from $97. The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 14% for 2025 and 10% for 2026.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $89.30 Difference: $25.7
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $101.20, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from UJS$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

No change to New Hope's $3.85 target price and Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Buy (1) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The broker cut nickel price forecast to $16,000/t in FY26-27, down -$1,000/t. Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker cut Nickel Industries' FY25-27 EBITDA forecasts by -3% to -6% on lower nickel prices.

Buy rating and 90c target price unchanged.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.18
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating on Nickel Industries with a target price of $1.65 from $1.70. The broker lowers EPS estimates by -88% for 2025 and -24% for 2026.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.93
If NIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDI as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating on Predictive Discovery with a target price of 60c from 39c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.21
If PDI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update for Citi, the analyst downgraded Pilbara Minerals to Neutral from Buy, with the key price forecast revision for lithium down by -15% to -20% over the next three years.

The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The broker cut FY25 EBITDA forecast by -14% and FY26 by -66% on lower lithium price forecasts.

Target price cut to $1.30 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.07
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett downgrades Pilbara Minerals to Sell from Hold with a target price of $1.10 from $1.75. 

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PRU as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating on Perseus Mining with a target price of $3.90 from $3.50. The broker tweaks EPS estimates.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.36
If PRU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates REA as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter observes a soft May for REA Group, with national new listings down -9.7% year-on-year (PropTrack data) following a -10.6% decline in April, which drags financial year-to-date growth to the low end of guidance.

The broker lowers its FY25 new listings forecast to 1.3% growth from 2.0%, citing macro tailwinds and a strong June outlook as partial offsets.

An ACCC investigation into REA’s pricing power presents a potential 6-9 month regulatory overhang, contrasting with Domain Holdings Australia's ((DHG)) weaker market position.

Bell Potter notes REA’s growth in FY26 may rely more heavily on yield, with flat listing volumes expected and residential revenue growth driven by higher pricing and increased penetration.

The broker downgrades to Hold from Buy and cuts its target price to $262 from $267.

Target price is $262.00 Current Price is $233.97 Difference: $28.03
If REA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.86, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker cut Rio Tinto's target price on a lower forecast FY27 EV/EBITDA multiple to 6x from 6.5x, forex, higher risk weightings on lithium projects and higher long-term aluminium costs.

Target price $113 from $130. Neutral retained.

Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $102.17 Difference: $10.83
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.92, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Morgans downgrades Rio Tinto to Hold from Accumulate with the new target price set at $108 from $119.

The broker has revised down iron ore forecasts to US$89/t for FY26, with the long-term price unchanged at US$77/t, and has downgraded the sector view to Neutral from Overweight. The iron ore price is expected to slip to the mid-US$80s/t in 2H 2025, prior to a supply-side response.

Morgans explains Chinese export profits are under pressure from tariffs, and Beijing is anticipated to adopt an enforcement policy on high-emission mills to cut production.

The analyst highlights that around 70% of 2025 expected earnings (EBITDA) for the company is generated from iron ore, underwriting circa 6% variance in earnings for every US$5/t move in the iron ore price, either up or down.

Morgans emphasises risks around rising costs for Pilbara, execution on Simandou, Canadian tariffs, Mongolian rents, and instability in Guinea, which leaves the company with little room on earnings if the iron ore price moves lower than US$85/t.

Target price is $108.00 Current Price is $102.17 Difference: $5.83
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.92, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts are unchanged at US$99/t and US$90/t for 2025–2026, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

A Buy rating is retained on Rio Tinto with a lower target price of $120 from $126. Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -16% for 2025 and -17% for 2026.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $102.17 Difference: $17.83
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.92, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett has updated commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett retains a Sell rating on Regis Resources. Target price rises to $3.10 from $2.70 and the broker's EPS estimates rise by 9% and 26% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: minus $1.6 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RSG as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett upgrades Resolute Mining to Buy from Accumulate. Target price lifts to $1 from 65c and the broker's EPS estimates rise by 31% and 35% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.4
If RSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker lowered FY26 EBITDA forecast by -6% but also lifted FY27 forecast by 6% on a mix of base metals and alumina price forecast changes.

No change to $3.40 target price and Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.52
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating. Target price is lowered to $4.10 from $4.20. The broker's EPS estimates are lowered by -12% for FY25 and -34% for FY26.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $1.22
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Seek’s May job ad volumes fell -5.6% year-on-year, the narrowest decline since December 2022 and ahead of the ABS index by 220bps.

Australian listings are tracking at -9.9% so far this financial year, better than prior expectations, and May volumes remain below the six-year average, highlight the analysts.

The broker points out guidance now leans toward the top end of ranges for revenue, earnings and profit, supported by recent ad tier upgrades, stabilising job ad trends, and efficiency gains from the unified platform.

Bell Potter raises its target price to $28.40 from $25.80 and retains a Buy rating. Seek is the broker's preferred Australian classifieds exposure under coverage.

Target price is $28.40 Current Price is $23.99 Difference: $4.41
If SEK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.28, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker lifted Sandfire Resources' FY25-27 EBITDA forecasts by 2-3% on higher near-term copper prices.

Target price rises to $11.50 from $11.00. Neutral retained.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.33 Difference: $0.17
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.04, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker lifted Stanmore Resources' FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts by 10% and 6%, respectively. Buy rating and $3.10 target price unchanged.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $1.17
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SYL as Buy (1) -

Symal Group has upgraded its FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to around $105m from $102.3m. Revenue guidance has been lowered by -6.3% to circa $900m due to timing delays on some projects, explains Ord Minnett.

The updated earnings margin of 11.7% sits at the upper end of Symal’s typical 10-12% range, notes the analyst, supporting a more confident FY26 outlook.

Recent contract wins include the around $70m Moonee Valley Race Course project, a $40m defence contract, and anticipated approval for the Gawara Baya Wind Farm in 2H26.

Ord Minnett adjusts its forecasts on a more conservative medium-term margin view, but retains a positive stance on execution strength and guidance momentum.

The broker cuts its target price to $2.40 from $2.50. The Buy rating is kept.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.7
If SYL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of Treasury Wine Estates' market update on Tuesday, Citi analysts communicated their increasingly cautious view on medium-term prospects after a trip to Asia. The analysts believe investors are not pricing in the risks associated with China's weakness.

The broker notes distributors are buying more in China than the market's consumption demand, and lower cross-border prices are likely discouraging them from trading Penfolds products.

The broker sees a risk of the company missing FY26-27 EBIT growth target of 15% provided in June 2024.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $8.68.

Target price is $8.68 Current Price is $8.21 Difference: $0.47
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.03, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WAF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and lifts the target price to $3.40 from $2.80. EPS estimates are upgraded by 13% in 2025 and 15% in 2026.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $1.23
If WAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WC8 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated the commodity price assumptions on the back of a weaker-than-expected economic macro outlook. Uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is weighing on global economic growth and China demand the broker explains.

The potential for China to impose capacity limitations on China steel mills in 2H 2025 remains a risk to Australia's bulk miners.

The broker lowers price forecasts for aluminium by -6%, -9%, and -3% for 2025–2027, with copper lowered by -10% in 2026; nickel down -7%, -7%, and -1% for 2025–2027; and across-the-board downgrades for lithium spodumene, carbonate, and hydroxide out to 2027.

The iron ore price forecasts sits at US$99/t (-3%) for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–2027, with the gold price forecast up 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, respectively.

No change to Buy rating and 30c target price for Wildcat Resources.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.17
If WC8 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

In the latest quarterly commodity update, Citi made the biggest change to lithium price forecasts, down by -15% to -20% over the next three years. The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

The 0-3 month iron ore price forecast lowered to US$90/t from US$100/t, and 6-12 price to US$85/t from US$90/t. Alumina forecast is down -8% for 2025 while U308, thermal and coking coal are largely unchanged. 

Gold price forecast is lifted 2% for 2025, but lowered -2% for 2026-27. 

The broker cut Whitehaven Coal's FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts by -11% and -6%, respectively, on higher AUD/USD and lower semi-soft coal forecasts.

Target price cut to $7.00 from $7.40. Buy retained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: $1.23
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.60, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources