Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett retains its Speculative Buy rating for AIC Mines following solid FY22 results and the company's resource/reserve update, and increases its target price to $0.70 from $0.65. 

The broker increases its life of mine (LOM) assumption by one year at Eloise, which leads to an 11% increase in net asset value (NAV). 

Lower tax more than offset higher transport and royalty costs than the analyst had expected, while the FY23 outlook remains unchanged from the most recent quarterly update.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.16
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Upon first read, Citi concludes a2 Milk Co's FY22 financials slightly beat market consensus (2%) and beat Citi's forecast by some 7%. A better-than-anticipated performance in China seems to have made the difference.

Various guidance indications seem in line with market expectations.

Citi thinks the share price will be supported post-release, despite negatives including a larger loss for the US operations, increased marketing costs and more intense competition in China.

Neutral. Target $4.64.

Target price is $4.64 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A2M as Underperform (5) -

a2 Milk Co's FY22 result outpaced consensus and Macquarie's forecasts by 3%, thanks to a revenue beat on infant formula as second-half sales to China rose (CBEC sales rose 53%), thanks in part to increased marketing expenditure.

Gross margin were in line and Macquarie expects steady margins in FY23. Marketing costs, administration costs and other costs also rose.

Strong operating cash flow of $204m translated to cash conversion of 114%, says the broker, thanks to one-off working capital gains.

The company announced a $15m buyback, which Macquarie says is underpinned by the stronger-than-forecast net cash position of $817m.

FY23 guidance is in line with consensus. Underperform rating and $4 target price retained, pending closer examination.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABY as Buy (1) -

Upon initial read, UBS believes the FY22 performance by Adore Beauty, including the trading update, was in line with consensus and UBS forecasts. But the margin guidance for the year ahead will trigger downgrades, the broker adds.

With the company battling higher costs and intending to spend more on strategic initiatives, the FY23 margin will be below the targeted 2-4%, according to management at the company.

UBS notes not only does market consensus assume a margin of 3% currently, the broker's revenue forecast for FY23 sits some -12% below consensus. Looks like a general re-set is due to follow.

Buy. Target $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.26
If ABY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AFG as Buy (1) -

There were no surprises as FY22 net profit was pre-reported. The loan book was relatively better than Citi expected and commissions were also better.

While commissions will be affected by slowing front end activity, the broker envisages a more resilient earnings profile overall as lending takes share and products are expanded.

Citi believes de-rating of the shares on the back of the cyclically in the business has been overdone and maintains a Buy rating. Target is $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.5
If AFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Australian Finance Group has delivered a full year result in line with recent trading updates, and highlighted year-on-year underlying net profit growth of 12.4%.

The company delivered 102% growth in settlements over the year, and momentum continued with the company reporting a further 37% growth in July over the previous comparable period, as well as 3% growth in lodgments.

The broker anticipates some margin normalisation in the coming year, but expects higher-margin products to provide some relief. Macquarie's earnings per share forecasts lift 3.6%, 3.3% and 3.7% through to FY25. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.09 from $1.82.

Target price is $2.09 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.09
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Buy (1) -

While FY22 results for Aeris Resources were broadly in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts, FY23 guidance was softer than estimated due to higher operating costs at Jaguar and Cracow.

Inflation drove higher costs along with a reallocation of capital spend into opex, explains the analyst.

The broker still sees significant valuation appeal and retains its Buy rating though the target slips to $0.70 from $0.75 on -20% lower FY23 earnings (EBITDA) estimates.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.23
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AKE as Buy (1) -

Allkem's earnings result fell short of UBS. Spodumene and lithium carbonate pricing guidance was lifted, but Mt Cattlin production was
downgraded only six weeks after prior guidance.

Growth momentum nevertheless remains strong, the broker notes, with Olaroz Stage 2 and Naraha first production in the December quarter. Medium term, Sal de Vida, James Bay upstream and the Mt Cattlin extension feature.

Buy retained. Target rises to $18.60 from $15.20 on higher long term lithium price forecasts.

Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $4.69
If AKE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.69, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Buy (1) -

Citi increases FY23 and FY24 net profit estimates by 29% and 34%, respectively, factoring in the maiden FY23 guidance and higher level of contingency releases in FY24.

FY22 net profit was largely in line with estimates while the contingency release from the LCS led to softer cash conversion. The broker calculates this should make up a significant proportion of the FY23 EBIT guidance of $100m.

Citi assesses Austal is now better positioned from an experience and price perspective to bid for other contracts. Buy rating retained and the target is raised to $3.70 from $3.29.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $1.1
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASB as Outperform (1) -

Austal's full year earnings of $120.7m delivered a 4% beat to Macquarie's forecasts, with the highlight of the company's year its successful bid for a US$3.3bn offshore patrol cutter contract. The broker notes at $7bn, Austal's order book is at a historical high. 

The company has flagged a focus on diversification moving forward to shift away from ongoing transitions between vessels. Macquarie lifts its earnings per share forecasts 9%, 12% and 6% through to FY25.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.90 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.3
If ASB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASB as Lighten (4) -

FY22 earnings were in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. FY23 EBIT guidance of $100m was flagged. This was offset, in the broker's view, by signs the forecast is supported by contingency releases relating to the littoral combat ship program, which is winding down.

Austal is also taking a provision on its first two vessels in the ocean-going T-ATS program, its first steel shipbuilding venture, treating these as onerous contracts.

Ord Minnett envisages operating in margin risk as the company transitions to the new steel-based offshore patrol cutter program from the aluminium LCS vessels. Lighten retained. Target is $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If ASB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ATL as Buy (1) -

Following FY22 results for Apollo Tourism & Leisure, Ord Minnett lifts revenue forecasts due to improving demand for recreation vehicle (RV) rentals, ex fleet sales and retail dealerships in both Australia and North America.

D&A impacts and increased interest rate assumptions combine to lower the broker's EPS estimates for FY24 and FY25. However, the earnings estimates are not input into the analyst's financial model given the current merger proposal with Tourism Holdings Ltd.

While there's a risk the merger won't proceed due to ACCC scrutiny, Ord Minnett expects merger timing would be in late 2022.

The target falls to $0.66 from $0.70 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.08
If ATL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BGA as Hold (3) -

FY22 results for Bega Cheese were in line with management guidance and Morgans highlights operating cash flow and gearing were better than expected.

While the broker's target price jumps to $3.71 from $3.30 on a lower D&A charge (after the acquisition of Lion Dairy & Drinks was finalised), the Hold rating is maintained on industry structure concerns.

The analyst would like to see an end of the need for ongoing price increases (for farmers supply of milk) before becoming more positive on the outlook.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If BGA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGA as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett assesses FY22 results for Bega Cheese were within normalised guidance and expects recent price rises to offset material price rises for farmgate milk. The target rises to $3.75 from $3.10.

FY22 profit exceeded the broker's forecast due to a lower-than-expected depreciation charge linked to the Lion Dairy and Drinks takeover.

The 5.5cps final dividend brought the FY22 dividend to 11cps, in line with Ord Minnett's forecast.

The broker retains its Lighten rating over concerns about the time for price rises to take effect and the potential for demand destruction. 

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If BGA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBO as Buy (1) -

FY22 rolling two-year average operating earnings beat expectations, assisted by the re-statement of prior year earnings. On a stand-alone basis FY22 EBITDA missed Ord Minnett's forecast, largely because of a loss in the emerging US market and flat underlying gross margins in Australia.

Another loss is expected in the US in FY23, albeit smaller, the broker adds. With most competing brands raising prices by 10-30% in Australia in 2022, Ord Minnett believes Cobram Estate Olives' brands are well-placed to grow existing share of supermarket sales.

Buy rating target retained. Target is reduced to $1.84 from $1.94.

Target price is $1.84 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.31
If CBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

First half results missed estimates because of higher cost inflation. Costa Group has emphasised most of its citrus crop is yet to be harvested or sold so it is difficult to ascertain the grade/output at this point.

Credit Suisse assumes a flat citrus output price in the December half and incorporates the company's volume guidance. Meanwhile, mushroom pricing and tomato volumes are firm while avocado is "challenged".

Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.90 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.11
If CGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Costa Group has delivered net profit of $40m and earnings of $140m in the first half, which Macquarie has described as broadly in line with its estimated $42.5m and $142m.

The broker is anticipating the company has a big second half ahead, forecasting Costa Group will achieve full year earnings growth of 16% despite no quantitative guidance from the company. Macquarie predicts Citrus will account for 21% of total earnings, and will be key to the second half. 

Macquarie's earnings per share forecast declines -9% for 2022. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.24 from $3.42.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.45
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGC as Add (1) -

First half results for Costa Group were in line with guidance. Morgans highlights strong Produce and Costa Farms & Logistics (CF&L) results, though only modest growth for the International division.

The broker lowers its FY22 earnings (EBITDA-S) forecast by -4.2% as a result of more conservative Citrus assumptions due to wet weather, and the target falls to $3.35 from $3.67.

However, the analyst feels the stock price is materially undervalued and retains an Add rating.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.56
If CGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

Costa Group reported in line with recently updated guidance. Domestically, Costa benefited from favourable pricing in mushroom, tomatoes and berries, as well as significantly improved production from its Vertical Farming products, UBS notes.

International saw another standout performance in China more than offsetting a weak result from Morocco Berry due to stiff competition.

Management did not provide explicit guidance but did provide outlook commentary for each of its product segments, which UBS found mixed. Inflationary pressures from labour wage increases and significantly elevated fertiliser inputs were noted.

Costa offers a solid potential growth outlook, suggests the broker, but execution remains the focus. Neutral retained, target falls to $2.80 from $2.85.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.01
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMW as Hold (3) -

FY22 operating earnings were slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. Asset sales are considered a step in the right direction, amid the company's plans to become a capital-light fund manager while also deleveraging the portfolio.

Cromwell Property has delayed the launch of its spin off of certain assets into an ASX-listed office A-REITs, originally planned for the second half. Four non-core Australian office assets were sold for $160m.

Ord Minnett reduces estimates for FY23 and FY24 by -8.8% and -7.8%, respectively, as the disposal of non-core assets is a drag on earnings. Hold maintained along with an $0.85 target.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.06
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

FY22 profit (NPATA) for COG Financial Services was in line with July's unaudited pre-announcement. As FY23 guidance for strong ongoing growth aligns with Ord Minnett's forecast, the new target price of $2.11 is little changed from $2.06 previously. Buy.

The analyst notes growth is supported by new brokers joining the network and an increased share of high-margin insurance broking products. There's also thought to be potential for an acceleration of recurring income via the managed funds.

Target price is $2.11 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.32
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage on Core Lithium, noting development of the company's Finniss spodumene project is well underway and remains on track to deliver first spodumene production in the first half of 2023. 

The company has secured offtake agreements with Genfeng and Ya Hua for around 80% of anticipated production for the first five years, and remains in talks over a third offtake agreement with Tesla. 

The broker expects timing of the development will see Core Lithium benefit from buoyant pricing. The broker initiates with an Outperform rating and target price of $1.80.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.41
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EPY as Add (1) -

In the wake of FY22 results for EarlyPay, Morgans believes earnings growth will be supported by solid volume momentum for invoice finance. Underlying FY22 profit (NPATA) came in slightly below guidance and no formal FY23 guidance was provided.

The analyst retains an Add rating and suggests a multiple re-rate could be achieved on a higher earnings base should the company's technology-led strategy deliver sustainable customer growth.

The broker takes a more conservative stance on earnings forecasts and the target falls to $0.57 from $0.64.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.08
If EPY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Sell (5) -

Following FY22 results for Flight Centre Travel, Ord Minnett raises its target price to $14.26 from $13.18, though retains its Sell rating on downside risk for Corporate, despite a more positive view for Leisure.

In the short to medium term, the analyst feels the company remains vulnerable to a material cyclical downturn.

The broker highlights benefits from the visiting relatives and friends (VFR) thematic though these customers are considered less profitable compared to normal holidaymakers with hotel bookings etc.

Target price is $14.26 Current Price is $17.07 Difference: minus $2.81 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.52, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, today's FY22 performance by Fortescue Metals has slightly beaten market consensus, comment analysts at Citi, with a better-than-expected dividend on top.

No change to FY23 guidance. The company has commited to spend -US$90m at Belinga iron ore prospect in Gabon.

It is Citi's view that Fortescue Metals is performing well operationally but its valuation is not supportive assuming LT benchmark iron ore of US$80/t.

Neutral. Target $18.40.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $19.87 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.61, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage on Global Lithium Resources, noting the company has accelerated drilling at both its Manna and Marble Bar projects in 2022, with the broker anticipating results from Manna could suggest a threefold increase in the resource. 

While Manna's resource has previously been outlined at 9.9m tonnes, the broker models that on a resource of more than 30m tonnes, Manna could produce over 200,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per annum, but does highlight production is unlikely to commence prior to 2026. 

The broker initiates with an Outperform rating and a target price of $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.77
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Outperform (1) -

Hastings Technology Metals has announced it will acquire a 22.1% interest in rare earth producer Neo Performance Materials at a cost of $150m, subject to shareholder approval. Macquarie notes the purchase will be fully funded by a $150m convertible note from Wyloo Metals.

The broker highlights Neo Performance Materials is accelerating plans to expand rare earth separation operations in Estonia and is constructing downstream facilities to produce rare earth permanent magnets.

The Outperform rating and target price of $6.30 are retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $1.36
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Integral Diagnostics' FY22 result had been pre-released. Citi, upon first reading through today's official release, observes no formal guidance has been released for FY23.

The company has indicated no more acquisitions for the time being as the focus now shifts to successful integrating the acquisitions that have been done.

Lower volumes and higher costs have pressured the company's margins, observes the broker. Normal market conditions are expected by FY24.

Buy. Target $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.77
If IDX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFM as Buy (1) -

Infomedia delivered revenue in line with UBS but earnings missed by -8% driven by higher cost reinvestment in the second half. Free cash flow was the highlight, up 79%, while a 3c final dividend also surprised to the upside.

SimpleParts gained good traction, UBS notes, with new e-commerce wins across all regions, and together with Infodrive is expected to deliver double-digit growth in FY23. However, Superservice  momentum slowed and Microcat remained stable while the Americas recorded no tangible second half uplift.

Revenue guidance is achievable, UBS believes, but given the recurring revenue nature of the business, momentum could take a while to re-accelerate. Buy retained, target falls to $1.95 from $2.15.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.56
If IFM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

Based on upgraded long term prices of US$1,100/t spodumene, US$15,000/t battery grade lithium carbonate, US$16,000/t battery grade lithium hydroxide, and a US75c exchange rate, UBS has raised its lithium miner earnings forecasts and valuations.

IGO target rises to $15.85 from $13.00, Buy retained.

Target price is $15.85 Current Price is $13.02 Difference: $2.83
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.98, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IVC as Underperform (5) -

At first glance, InvoCare's June first-half result appears to have met consensus and fallen short of Macquarie's forecasts.

Funeral volumes and average pricing rose on FY21 but operating cash flow and cash conversion deteriorated sharpy, and net debt rose accordingly.

Management provided no quantitative guidance but did expect that the unwinding of covid would support higher value funerals.

Underperform rating and $10.30 target price retained, pending closer examination.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.30, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IVC as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial glance, UBS has spotted a "very strong" performance released by InvoCare today. And while the broker's own forecasts have been beaten, as well as market consensus, on a relative basis it's not as good, UBS points out.

What UBS is referring to is that both industry data and competitor Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP)) suggest InvoCare's performance is underwhelming, on a relative comparison (suggesting loss of market share).

UBS had positioned itself near the bottom of market consensus, anticipating higher costs and less operating leverage.

Neutral. Target $12.40.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: $1.24
If IVC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.30, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JDO as Buy (1) -

FY22 net profit was slightly below forecasts while revenue was ahead of estimates. Judo Capital has guided to a material increase in first half underlying net interest margin which includes some temporary benefits from deposit hedging and rate hikes.

While the benefits are expected to unwind, commentary suggests to the broker that pricing within the SME segment remains rational and this, in turn, provides greater confidence around margin sustainability.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $1.80 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.53
If JDO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 55.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Outperform (1) -

Jumbo Interactive has reported full year earnings of $54m, up 18% year-on-year and in line with recent guidance from the company as noted by Macquarie. 

The broker notes Australian lotteries jackpot activity has been poor year-to-date, and driven lottery volumes down -7% in the first seven weeks of the year, but Macquarie anticipates this will normalise moving forward.

Macquarie also noted the $25m share buyback announced by the company was a surprise considering Jumbo Interactive's merger and acquisition strategy. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $18.05 from $18.60.

Target price is $18.05 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: $3.67
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Add (1) -

FY22 results for Jumbo Interactive revealed few surprises for Morgans, given headline earnings were pre-announced in July.

The broker reiterates is Add rating and expects ongoing steady growth in coming years via organic contract wins, M&A and diversification.

The analyst raises the FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts by 1% as a result of a proposed $25m buyback. The $17.50 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: $3.12
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JIN as Neutral (3) -

Jumbo Interactive reported final earnings numbers that were a 2% increase on a preliminary result reported in July. Compositionally UBS found the SaaS business was stronger than expected with Retailing and Managed Services slightly below forecasts.

Guidance commentary was unchanged, expecting underlying costs to increase some 20% next year and earnings margins of 48-50% ex-acquisitions versus 53% in FY22.

Recent acquisitions will fuel medium term growth but the integration process will limit nearer term growth, UBS suggests. An announced  buyback was a surprise but UBS retains Neutral, cutting its target to $15.10 from $18.00.

Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: $0.72
If JIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LGL as Buy (1) -

Lynch Group posted FY22 underlying net profit of $24.7m, in line with Ord Minnett's forecast and guidance. Estimates are reduced by -5.9% for FY23 and -2.6% for FY24 because of the risk to sales and operating earnings margins amid elevated freight and energy prices.

The broker expects these issues will fade in the second half and revenue growth is expected in both regions in FY23. Further guidance is expected at the AGM in November. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.20 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $0.75
If LGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

Lovisa Holdings has released its FY22 financials this morning and UBS, upon first read, has decided the performance is "well above consensus".

On top of that, strong growth also characterises the opening weeks of FY23.

Cash flow was equally strong and so is the dividend; higher-than-expected.

Neutral. Target $18.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.67 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.42, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reports a solid result from Lynas Rare Earths, with the company delivering record earnings of $589m, alongside record net profit and in-line cash flow.

The broker highlighted capital expenditure guidance from the company of $600m each in FY23 and FY24, noting financials demonstrate Lynas Rare Earths' commitment to growth.

The broker notes declines in spot pricing mean a spot price scenario would now generate earnings -35% and -41% lower than Macquarie's base cases for FY23 and FY24 respectively. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.50 from $10.40.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.03 Difference: $0.47
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Downgrade to Sell from Lighten (5) -

While 2H results for Lynas Rare Earths were broadly in line with recent quarterly results and consensus expectations, Ord Minnett is concerned about project execution risk. Capex guidance is for -$1.2bn over FY23 and FY24 versus the broker's -$754m forecast.

In addition, the broker notes commodity price pressure and lowers its rating to Sell from Lighten, while decreasing its target price to $4.85 from $5.35.

Despite a -30% year-on-year worsening in unit costs, margins hit what the analyst describes as a "whopping" 65%.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $9.03 Difference: minus $4.18 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

At first glance, Mineral Resources' FY22 result was mixed but generally met Macquarie's forecasts. Cash flow generation proved a -5% miss given higher capital expenditure, which led to higher net debt and a lower dividend (both sharp misses).

The big news was the approval of the Onslow Iron project from the Red Hill Iron ((RHI)) joint venture partners. Mineral Resources plans to increase its stake to 60.3% from 40% funded by a $1.3bn carried expenditure loan paid by production, says the broker.

Mineral Resources will build, fund, own and operate all of the infrastructure, and Baosteel has an offtake agreement for 50% of production, with an option to increase its rights to 75%. The Red Hill Iron joint venture will pay $7.74 to use the infrastructure.

Outperform rating retained, the Onslow project being larger than expected, and higher capital expenditure matched with lower operational expenditure forecasts. Target price steady at $91 for now.

Target price is $91.00 Current Price is $65.12 Difference: $25.88
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.16, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Based on upgraded long term prices of US$1,100/t spodumene, US $15,000/t battery grade lithium carbonate, US$16,000/t battery grade lithium hydroxide, and a US75c exchange rate, UBS has raised its lithium miner earnings forecasts and valuations.

Mineral Resources' target rises to $83 from $71, Buy retained.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $65.12 Difference: $17.88
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.16, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

The combination of higher than expected cycle volumes and market share gains has seen Monash IVF deliver a full year result 2% ahead of Macquarie's forecasts.

The broker noted Monash IVF's cycles increased 2.7% year-on-year, while the industry reported a cycle decline of -0.4%, which Macquarie notes implies a market share gain of 55 basis points. 

The company is anticipating underlying net profit growth exceeding 10% in the coming year. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.30 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.3
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MVF as Add (1) -

Price rises of 2-3% and small market share gains resulted in a 4.7% revenue boost for Monash IVF during FY22, according to Morgans. FY22 results were in line with expectations. It's thought strong industry fundamentals will persist and the Add rating is unchanged.

The 2.2cps final dividend beat the broker's 2cps forecast. After making minor forecast changes, the analyst's target price slips to $1.24 from $1.26.

Guidance is for FY23 underlying profit growth of over 10%, capital expenditure guidance for $30m and committed acquisitions of around $15m.

Target price is $1.24 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.24
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MYX as Neutral (3) -

FY22 underlying EBITDA was down -28% and below expectations. Earnings in the second half were affected by declining profitability in retail generics. The ramping up of Nextstellis has also been below expectations.

Credit Suisse notes, at the time of launch, Mayne Pharma had targeted peak sales of US$200m within 3-5 years and this is now looking unlikely.

The sale of the Metrics Contract Services business should provide a $100m capital return in the second half of FY23. The broker forecasts achieving net cash in FY23. Neutral rating and $0.32 target maintained.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0
If MYX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Accumulate (2) -

FY22 results were ahead of expectations, largely because of better cost performance and despite significant investment. Guidance for net flows is $11-13bn for FY23.

Ord Minnett expects Netwealth Group to return healthy earnings growth, forecasting around 25% compound over two years.

Yet valuation remains a constraint on a more positive view and the broker maintains an Accumulate rating. Target is raised to $14.40 from $14.00.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $13.35 Difference: $1.05
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.12, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NXT as Outperform (1) -

At first glance, NextDC's result met Macquarie's forecasts but capital expenditure sharply outpaced guidance.

On the upside, stronger than forecast margins led to an earnings (EBITDA) beat.

FY23 guidance is largely in line.

The broker expects the company to post strong enterprise growth as the network and partner pipeline continues to expand.

Energy inflation has been built into contracts and passed through, says the broker.

Outperform rating and $13.90 target retained for now.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $10.99 Difference: $2.91
If NXT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.82, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXT as Buy (1) -

At face value, reports Ord Minnett following today's FY22 release, it looks like NextDC has beaten market expectations, and by a wide margin too, but a number of one-offs -below the line adjustments- seem to be responsible.

FY23 guidance is seen as "broadly in line" with expectations.

Contracted utilisation seems to have grown at snail's pace only half-over-half, and this would be a negative, though Ord Minnett points out these things are quite lumpy.

Among the positives is the fact NextDC can pass on costs to customers, the broker suggests. Only minor changes are expected post-result as far as consensus forecasts are concerned.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $10.99 Difference: $2.51
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.82, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates OZL as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights OZ Minerals shift in strategy, with a focus on copper and nickel, from its first half results briefing.

A final investment decision for West Musgrave is expected in the second half. The broker models funding via debt and a $700m raising.

Underlying operating earnings were below Citi's estimate in the first half while production costs increased. The company has maintained full year guidance. Buy rating and $22.50 target.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $25.99 Difference: minus $3.49 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings were largely in line. OZ Minerals has reiterated its view that brownfield projects can be funded from operating cash flow and, if debt is used to build West Musgrave, then a new long-term facility will be established.

Management has signalled its willingness to form strategic partnerships if these create value. No change was made to guidance and Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $28 target.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.99 Difference: $2.01
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as No Rating (-1) -

OZ Minerals delivered first half revenue and headline earnings in line with Macquarie's expectations, but underlying earnings were a -24% miss given higher depreciation and tax variations. 

The broker noted the company also announced an interim dividend of 8 cents per share, which was materially higher than the 2 cents per share dividend Macquarie had predicted. 

The company also announced an increase in its project studies spend to -$170-190m, from -$85-105m, largely on spend at West Musgrave. Macquarie is currently on research restriction for OZ Minerals and offers no target or rating.

Current Price is $25.99. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OZL as Hold (3) -

OZ Minerals' in-line 1H result is of secondary importance for Morgans while the company constructs its takeover defence against BHP Group ((BHP)). It's felt the $25/share bid undervalues OZ Minerals and odds favour a higher-priced bid in time.

While the analyst suggests some shareholders may consider trimming exposures (profits), for the majority a further wait is suggested, and the Hold rating retained. The target price of $25.40 is unchanged.

Guidance was maintained for FY22 production and costs though planned expenditure at the West Musgrave project has increased.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $25.99 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Accumulate (2) -

First half results were slightly below expectations. Ord Minnett is not overly concerned, as attention is focused on the next move by BHP Group ((BHP)). Meanwhile, OZ Minerals is hyping up its growth plans and strategic copper position.

Ord Minnett incorporates the results and higher expenditure projections. The broker retains a positive outlook, expecting BHP Group will return to the negotiating table with an improved offer. Accumulate maintained along with a $27.40 target.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $25.99 Difference: $1.41
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OZL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

OZ Minerals' result was a little short of UBS but immaterial given the offer on the table from BHP Group ((BHP)).

Otherwise OZ Minerals retained its guidance, outlined operational improvements and confidence around cave breakthrough at Carrapateena, confirmed West Musgrave final investment timing and highlighted the scarcity of its assets, low geographical risk and its growth pipeline.

At $26.50, UBS estimates the market is pricing in a US$3.77/lb copper price. Triangulating between higher commodity price assumptions, and valuing the unmodelled growth pipeline and any synergies, could justify a higher bid in the broker's view.

Target rises to $26.50 from $22.60, downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $25.99 Difference: $0.51
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PDL as Neutral (3) -

Perpetual ((PPT)) has announced a merger with Pendal Group, which Credit Suisse assesses has strategic merit as both independently lack global scale and are embarking on similar strategies to expand product and distribution. The merger fast-tracks value creation for Pendal while removing execution risk.

Around 19-24% of accretion in FY23-24 is estimated, assuming $60m of cost synergies and no revenue attrition. The main risk the broker envisages is around the high level of gearing.

Credit Suisse increases the target for Pendal to $5.40 from $3.90 to reflect the expected merger consideration at the current Perpetual share price, adjusted for a final dividend. The likelihood of the merger proceeding is high so a Neutral rating is reiterated.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.07
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy's FY22 result appears to have satisfied Macquarie, who believes the company is well-placed to restart production at Langer Heinrich after its US$177.1m capital raising.

The broker notes uranium prices remain elevated despite recent softening and says reports of reactor restarts in Japan are encouraging.

EPS forecasts are fairly steady. Target price rises to 90c from 80c to reflect a roll-forward of the broker's model.

Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.11
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPE as Buy (1) -

FY22 earnings (EBITDA) for Peoplein were 2% ahead of Ord Minnett's estimate. The 13cps fully franked dividend was also a beat. The Technology segment outperformed, while health practice earnings were slightly weaker (half-on-half) on difficulty sourcing offshore labour.

The analyst's FY23 earnings forecast is in line with the midpoint of management's FY23 guidance for $62m-$66m.

Ord Minnett upgrades its FY23 EPS forecast by 2% and the target rises to $4.67 from $4.59. Buy.

Target price is $4.67 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.95
If PPE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PPT as Outperform (1) -

Following the FY22 result, Credit Suisse lowers estimates for earnings per share by -6% and -3% for FY23 and FY24, respectively. Along with the results, Perpetual has announced a merger with Pendal Group ((PDL)).

The broker believes there is strategic merit to the proposal as both independently lack global scale and are embarking on similar strategies to expand product and distribution.

Around 19-24% of accretion in FY23-24 is estimated, assuming $60m of cost synergies and no revenue attrition. As the merger is likely to proceed, Credit Suisse lowers the target for Perpetual to $31 from $34. Outperform reiterated.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $28.18 Difference: $2.82
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.60, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Buy (1) -

FY22 net profit was below Ord Minnett's forecast as was the final dividend. The main focus is on the announcement of a merger with Pendal Group ((PDL)). A scheme implementation deed has been entered under which Perpetual will acquire Pendal at an implied offer price of $6.54.

Ord Minnett considers the metrics of the deal reasonable, if the business can achieve planned synergies. The broker retains a Buy rating for Perpetual based on the belief that, as a value manager, in current conditions there is scope for a return at some point to net inflows.

Moreover, Perpetual Private and Corporate Trust currently make up more than 50% of earnings and these should trade on relatively high multiples. Target is raised to $33 from $30.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.18 Difference: $4.82
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.60, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PTM as Neutral (3) -

FY22 underlying net profit was down -11% and below Credit Suisse estimates. This stemmed from a miss at the revenue line and a higher tax rate.

Nevertheless, the broker considered the outcome reasonable as strong efforts on cost management were offset by management fee margin contraction.

While better flows were recorded in July the broker does not believe in capitalising a recovery given July/August are seasonally strong months.

Platinum Asset Management's fund flows are expected to remain negative and this will limit earnings growth, preventing a re-rating. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $1.80 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PTM as Sell (5) -

Platinum Asset Management's result saw dividends disappoint, impacted by non-cash M2M losses on seed investments. Excluding one-offs, the underlying result was -2% softer reflecting increased fee margin pressure due to funds under management mix, UBS notes.

July has seen better flows, but seasonal given the reinvestment of distributions post 30-June, the broker notes, while also adding: the investment performance remains inconsistent.

Consistency of performance is proving difficult despite value-style tailwinds, and UBS expects the underlying trend of net outflow to return post the seasonally better first quarter. Sell retained, target falls to $1.55 from $1.58.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PWR as Add (1) -

Strong gross margins drove a FY22 underlying profit beat for Peter Warren Automotive, partly due to cyclical strength and the balance came from the Mercedes shift to Agency, explains Morgans.

While the analyst has concerns for gross margins when normalisation of supply occurs, existing conditions should persist for some time. Second half demand continued to outstrip supply in the company's order book and demand has continued into the 1H of FY23, notes the broker.

The Add rating is unchanged, while the target increases to $3.25 from $3.08.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.69
If PWR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as No Rating (-1) -

PEXA Group's FY22 result outpaced guidance and consensus forecasts by 1% and 2%. The result and volume guidance also outpaced Macquarie's forecasts.

The broker remains cautious given the macro environment but overall is positive, noting the UK business is pushing ahead, management confirming the go-live date of September 22 for the first remortgage transaction.

The company aims to gain 20% of FY23 remortgages by June 30, which implies one large banks, says Macquarie. EPS forecasts rise 4.2% in FY23; 7.4% in FY24; and 5.1% in FY25.

Macquarie is on rating restriction.

Current Price is $15.24. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PXA as Buy (1) -

In an early response to PEXA Group's full year results, UBS noted the company has delivered earnings equating to year-on-year growth of 28%, and revenue showing 27% year-on-year growth, and described the update as reassuring. 

The broker highlights company guidance implies a modest margin decline in the coming year, largely attributed to ongoing domestic tech spend. UBS now further suggests a number of market fears have led to the stock being oversold, and suggests the recent rebound will be ongoing.

Buy retained, target falls to $20.00 from $20.50.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.24 Difference: $4.76
If PXA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QUB as Outperform (1) -

FY22 results were ahead of forecasts, with net profit up 30%. The strong result, Qube Holdings pointed out, was driven by higher volumes across core markets.

Strong growth is expected to continue into FY23 albeit with significantly higher interest expense.

Earnings are not expected to be materially affected by cost inflation because of the company's ability to recover higher costs through contract protections, rate adjustments and productivity.

As a result, Credit Suisse reiterates an Outperform rating and $3.55 target.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.61
If QUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QUB as Neutral (3) -

Qube Holdings' earnings result, up 30% on FY21, beat UBS by 13%. Logistics was the big winner, including $55m of revenue from acquisitions, while Ports & Bulks fell short of forecast.

Management guided to "strong growth" for Operating Division revenue and earnings in FY23, supported by organic growth and contributions from prior year investments.

Free cash flow is tempered, with capex guidance higher than UBS had forecast for FY23 including more maintenance. With growth expectations already high, the broker retains Neutral. Target rises to $3.20 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.26
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RHC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi lowers FY23-25 estimates for earnings per share as the negative impact of the pandemic continues to delay an earnings recovery. Ramsay Health Care provided no guidance but signalled a gradual recovery is expected throughout FY23, with more normal conditions from FY24.

Following the FY22 result the KKR-led consortium has withdrawn its indicative proposal of $88 a share and made an alternative offer that was rejected by the board, as it valued that at $85.

Citi believes there is a greater than 50% chance of a formal bid still occurring and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is reduced to $85 from $88.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $70.50 Difference: $14.5
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $79.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RHC as No Rating (-1) -

Ramsay Health Care continues to be affected by the pandemic, in particular higher rates of doctor/staff absenteeism and patient cancellations. Credit Suisse found no improvement in this dynamic in Australia and Europe in the final quarters of FY22.

FY22 EBIT was below expectations and while there is pent-up demand, the broker expects margins will remain below pre-pandemic levels in the medium term.

Meanwhile, KKR has withdrawn its bid but remains committed to an alternative structure which would not require due diligence of Ramsay Sante. The company has rejected this alternative because of its lower implied value.

Credit Suisse is on rating restriction.

Current Price is $70.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $79.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RHC as Outperform (1) -

Ramsay Health Care's FY22 result met consensus and Macquarie's forecasts but EBITDA disappointed as operating expenses outpaced, covid-related costs rising roughly 50% in the second half, due largely to labour disruption.

Despite near-term challenges, the broker considers the medium-term to longer-term outlook to be favourable.

Management guides to a slow recovery in FY23 before trade normalises during FY24.

Meanwhile, the broker notes the KKR proposal is still in play despite Ramsay's rejection of the initial offer.

EPS forecasts fall -8% in FY23 and -3% in FY24.

Outperform rating and $88 target price retained.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $70.50 Difference: $17.5
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $79.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RHC as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans maintains a takeover premium in its valuation for Ramsay Health Care and upgrades its rating to Add from Hold after rolling forward its financial model after FY22 results. 

The broker lowers FY23-24 underlying earnings forecasts by -6.4% and -7.5% on a challenging operating environment. No FY23 guidance was provided though management expects a “gradual recovery” through FY23 and more “normalised” conditions from FY24 onwards.

The $80 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $70.50 Difference: $9.5
If RHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $79.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMC as Neutral (3) -

Resimac Group's FY22 result fell well short of Macquarie's forecasts, due largely to higher loan impairments and weaker net interest income as margins softened (net interest margins (NIM) fell -26 basis points to 181 basis points).

On the upside, the company posted record home loan settlements which more than offset increased competition in the Prime settlements market.

Macquarie expects NIMs will settle in the FY23 second half. EPS forecasts fall -5.7% in FY23; -3.2% in FY24 and -4.1% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $1.37 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.07
If RMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 delivered a record result, as expected, with higher commodity prices more than offsetting higher unit costs. Cash returns positively surprised with the dividend 10% ahead of UBS and the buyback extended by US$156m.

Fresh guidance highlights a further material increase in costs and slightly lower than expected volumes in FY23, which result in a downgrade to the broker's forecasts. South32 also expects to lift capex in FY23 by 70%.

With the miner continuing to build a future facing portfolio, Buy retained. Target falls to $5.20 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: $0.97
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SIQ as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line with expectations. Credit Suisse believes the negative reaction in the stock price is overdone. Program costs have risen and the timeframe for Smart Future extended, yet Smartgroup Corp remains confident in the $15-20m EBITDA benefit in FY24.

The broker continues to assess the business is positioned for strong growth as new car supply resumes. Offsetting this is the impact of the recent contract loss in Victoria that makes it probable growth in earnings per share will only occur in FY24.

As a result, a Neutral rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $6.65 from $7.05.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: $0.53
If SIQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIQ as Outperform (1) -

Smartgroup Corp's June first-half result outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 0.9%, thanks in part to a $1.8m one-off revenue beat related to a St.George novated funding transfer.

The broker observes that new-vehicle timelines have stretched further as the pipeline continues to expand but vehicle supply constraints are dragging on perfromance. Management says weaker consumer confidence has delayed purchases.

EPS forecasts fall -2.5% in FY22; -3% in FY23 and -3.1% in FY24.

Target price slips to $7.10 from $7.30. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: $0.98
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIQ as Hold (3) -

Following in-line 1H results for Smartgroup Corp, Morgans points to short-term headwinds from ongoing vehicle supply constraints, slower lease demand and wage inflation. The target falls to $7.40 from $7.90, while the Hold rating is maintained.

The analyst expects novated lease demand will be boosted by the potential introduction of government electric vehicle policy, though notes headwinds from affordable electric vehicle supply.

Management also noted “short to med-term headwinds” from delayed consumer purchasing decisions and wage inflation.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: $1.28
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett points out, the first half result was "well guided" and contained few surprises. Yet commentary highlighted near-term challenges.

While the order book continues to grow, Smartgroup Corp is experiencing a reduction in sales conversions as customers defer purchasing decisions. A number of elements in the Smart Future program have been delayed because of issues with costs and resourcing.

Ord Minnett suspects the situation is unlikely to improve until the interest-rate environment is more certain. Nevertheless, the broker retains a Buy rating, reducing the target to $7.50 from $8.20.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: $1.38
If SIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLC as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses core earnings (EBITDA) are going well at Superloop following FY22 results which came in better than the broker's forecast and management guidance. The beat was achieved despite sales and marketing expenses that were -$2m worse than planned.

The Add rating is unchanged as Morgans believes shares have limited downside (trading at a -20% discount to book value), and potential upside via organic growth and accretive acquisitions.

The target falls to $1.00 from $1.37 after the analyst applies changed valuation multiples.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.24
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 54.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SLC as Buy (1) -

FY22 underlying operating earnings were ahead of guidance at $25.4m. Ord Minnett notes Exetel performed well over the second half as consumer business started to benefit from increased marketing investment.

Expectations are now rebased as the outlook is starting to turn more positive. Modest organic growth occurred in both the business and wholesale segments. No explicit FY23 guidance was provided.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $1.10 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.34
If SLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 54.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLH as Add (1) -

FY22 results for Silk Logistics broadly matched guidance and Morgans forecasts. The Add rating is retained and the target rises to $3.50 from $3.43.

Management is continuing to assess M&A opportunities to add further capacity across both Port Logistics and Contract Logistics. The analyst believes the company is well placed to increase medium-term market share.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $1.19
If SLH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TYR as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Tyro Payments's FY22 result outpaced consensus and UBS's forecasts, as did guidance (a 25% beat on consensus), the company expecting to be cash-flow positive by the end of FY23, thanks to stronger operating leverage..

Operating expenditure is on the decline, a key metric for investors says UBS.

Early FY23 trade is in line with UBS's forecasts.

Buy rating and $2.30 target price retained, pending review.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $1.3
If TYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 92.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Underlying net profit in FY22 was ahead of Citi's estimates. FY22 gross margins declined -40 basis points to 58.3% because of increased freight costs and FX headwinds. Citi notes this more than offset the increase in product margins which rose 40 basis points to 61.2%.

Universal Store's sales for the first eight weeks of FY23 were up 54.7% yet the broker expects most analysts will be forecasting a moderation of sales growth over the first half, based on store closures that will have a bigger first quarter impact.

The company has signalled foot traffic has improved in August compared with July. Citi retains a Buy rating based on the growth opportunities, balance sheet and a resilient customer demographic. Target is raised to $5.75 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.75
If UNI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UNI as Underperform (5) -

Universal Store's FY22 result met Macquariet's forecasts and the broker says improved net cash of $23.9m should fund the company's store rollout.

Sales slightly outpaced recently upgraded guidance and the cost of doing business rose in line with forecasts.

EPS forecasts rise 3% in FY23 and 0.3% in FY24. Underperform rating retained. Target price rises to $3.60 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If UNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UNI as Add (1) -

As FY22 earnings for Universal Store were better than expected, Morgans increases EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by 5% and 1%, respectively, and reiterates its Add rating with a new target of $7.00, up from $5.60.

The analyst believes new store openings and strong demand from a resilient youth demographic will deliver double-digit revenue growth in each of the next three years.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $2
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Universal Store's revenue and earnings were pre-guided. The dividend came in better than UBS expected. The broker notes a strong trading to start FY23 is pleasing and reflective of an attractive sales growth outlook.

Store openings are slowing in 2022 but will accelerate in 2023. Aiding store rollout is the resilient customer base which has less exposure to rising costs of living and fewer financial commitments and places emphasis on appearance and social occasions, UBS suggests.

Buy retained, target rises to $5.75 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.75
If UNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VEA as Hold (3) -

Morgans was impressed by 1H earnings for Viva Energy that beat its expectations, though suggests this year will likely be peak earnings for this cycle and maintains its Hold rating. The interim 13.7cps dividend compared to the consensus forecasts of 5cps.

First half revenue was 21% ahead of the consensus estimate. Price tailwinds delivered revenue growth greater than opex growth, explains the analyst. Commercial bounced back, while Refining margins were considered to display strength.

The target price rise $3.00 from $2.90.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.05
If VEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Ventia Services's June first-half result fell short of Macquarie's forecasts. Cash conversion came in at 87% and management reiterated FY conversion at 91%.

Macquarie admires the balance sheet and says the result suggests FY prospectus targets will be met, and believes management has executed well through covid and weather challenges.

Meanwhile the company advises that 94% of bigger contracts included embedded price escalation or short-term individually priced projects relating to panel arrangements, and has low exposure to fixed price contracts.

EPS forecasts rise 0.6% in FY22; and fall -0.6% in FY23.

Outperform rating and $3 target price retained, the broker considering the valuation to be undemanding.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.15
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Wesfarmers' FY22 EBIT of $3.6bn was ahead of Citi's estimates. The broker does not believe this result will materially shift market views. Kmart drove the beat to estimates, yet this group is sitting on an elevated inventory position.

Target also bounced back, while Bunnings earnings are correcting and the broker suspects margins may disappoint.

 Citi envisages better value elsewhere in the retail sector, preferring discretionary retailers which are trading at large discounts to history. A Sell rating and $40 target are maintained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $47.95 Difference: minus $7.95 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $47.95, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WES as Neutral (3) -

FY22 results were well ahead of forecasts. Credit Suisse has found the improvement in Kmart Group more rapid than expected, although considers the prospect of earnings growth in FY23 remains challenging.

Wesfarmers is also expected to incur a heavy level of cost investment on its digital initiatives and the lack of profitability in Catch is expected to continue.

Meanwhile, the new health division is likely to require some years before it becomes established and further acquisitions appear necessary, in the broker's view, to increase scale.

Credit Suisse upgrades estimates for earnings per share by 4.8% and 3.0% for FY23 and FY24, largely on the back of Kmart and chemicals. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $50.08 from $49.68.

Target price is $50.08 Current Price is $47.95 Difference: $2.13
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.95, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Underperform (5) -

Wesfarmers' FY22 result broadly met Macquarie's forecasts and the company posted a beat on EPS and the dividend.

Bunnings June-half margins fell -1 percentage point to 9.9% as sales rose but management expects top-line figures to hold as commercial demand compensates for retail slack.

Kmart managed to unwind much of its inventory and plans to continue this trend as trade normalises post covid.

WesCEF sales jumped 42% despite weaker LPG/LNG volumes and management guides to continued strong demand in energy and fertilisers.

Wesfarmers' balance sheet weakened, cash flow falling -32% due to an inventory build. EPS forecasts rise 2.7% in FY23; 3.4% in FY24; and 4% in FY25.

Underperform rating retained, Macquarie expecting rising rates and inflation will continue to weigh on consumer demand. Target price edges up 1% to $43.80 from $43.30.

Target price is $43.80 Current Price is $47.95 Difference: minus $4.15 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $47.95, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WES as Add (1) -

FY22 results for Wesfarmers were well above Morgans forecasts as 2H earnings for KMart Group bounced back from lockdown. The full year dividend of 180cps came in ahead of the consensus forecast for 169.5cps.

Management noted robust retail trading conditions had continued into the first seven weeks of FY23, with sales growth particularly strong for Kmart Group.

The analyst downgrades FY23-25 profit forecasts on higher net interest expenses after including interest on leases, which were previously included in forecast earnings (EBIT).

While the target falls to $55.60 from $58.40, Morgans recommends the company to long-term investors as a core holding. Add.

Target price is $55.60 Current Price is $47.95 Difference: $7.65
If WES meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.95, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Lighten (4) -

FY22 earnings were ahead of forecasts with Ord Minnett observing Wesfarmers produced an "excellent" second half performance at Kmart and Target while most other divisions were broadly in line.

The broker envisages an opportunity for Kmart to sustainably return to 6-7% EBIT margins. The broker notes a push into trade for Bunnings is also a positive for sales and earnings but dilutive to margins. This mix shift likely contributed to the -90 basis points margin contraction that was evident in the second half.

As the valuation remains full, Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating, raising the target to $43.20 from $41.20.

Target price is $43.20 Current Price is $47.95 Difference: minus $4.75 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $47.95, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Buy (1) -

Wesfarmers' earnings result came in ahead of UBS, led by an earnings beat for Kmart. The dividend was also a beat but cash flow fell short due to inventory building. No quantitative guidance was forthcoming as expected.

Bunnings and Officeworks also performed better than expected, while Kmart's success was driven by operating leverage, productivity and cost control, and the Target restructure. Higher sourcing costs have been managed across the Retail divisions with scale advantages being leveraged.

UBS retains Buy, noting FY23 has begun well. Target falls to $55 from $56 due to tougher comparables.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $47.95 Difference: $7.05
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.95, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Westgold Resources' FY22 result fell sharply short of Macquarie's forecasts due to higher than expected depreciation and amortisation and pre-announced non-cash impairments of $186m.

Management guides to lower production and rising all-in-sustaining costs, also short of the broker's forecasts.

The broker raises its cost assumptions over the next seven years.

EPS forecasts fall -62% in FY23; -90% in FY24; and -60% in FY25.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target price is halved to $1 from $2.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.04
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WOR as Underperform (5) -

Worley has suggested a stronger-than-expected outlook for FY23, expecting to maintain FY22 margins and signalling 13-15% revenue growth is "not unreasonable". Yet Credit Suisse flags the higher risk that comes from higher expectations.

The broker points out legacy energy expenditure may be less than hoped for and the green workflow may prove slower. Worley has been positioning the business as both an ESG exposure as well as deriving benefit from rising oil and gas prices.

Credit Suisse suspects there could be risk of disappointment at the next result and maintains an Underperform rating. Target is raised to $10.70 from $10.60.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: minus $4.71 (current price is over target).
If WOR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.56, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ZIP as Underperform (5) -

Zip Co's FY22 result fell short of Macquarie's forecast on several metrics and the broker expects the company will have its work cut out to hit cash-flow break-even in FY22. But Macquarie believes the company should make it based on the broker's current forecasts.

Bad and doubtful debts disappointed as did operating expenditure and earnings.

Macquarie tinkers with EPS forecasts as higher revenue margins are offset by rising data, bank fees and general cost inflation

Underperform rating retained. Target price falls -8% to 60c from 65c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ZIP as Accumulate (2) -

FY22 operating earnings were broadly in line with Ord Minnett's estimates. Zip Co is continuing to reduce costs, closing its Singapore and UK units, and anticipates being net cash at the EBTDA line in the first half of FY24.

The company is committing its US business to becoming net cash at the exit of FY23 while the rest of the world is under strategic review, with a desire to neutralise cash burn in the second half.

If cash transaction margins head back to FY21 levels Ord Minnett estimates the company's objective can be attained in FY24, but emphasises this will not be easy. Accumulate retained. Target is raised to $1.10 from $0.90.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.2
If ZIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources