Australian Broker Call
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September 20, 2021
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| IPL - | Incitec Pivot | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| NHC - | New Hope | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
Overnight Price: $39.16
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie switches its preference to BHP Group and South32 ((S32)) over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Fortescue Metals ((FMG)). BHP Group retains earnings upside at spot prices because of strong copper and hard coking coal prices.
Macquarie continues to prefer iron ore and metallurgical coal amongst the bulk commodities.
The broker considers the consensus outlook for iron ore prices is too bearish and retains an Outperform rating, raising the target to $56 from $55.
Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $39.16 Difference: $16.84
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.30, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 369.78 cents and EPS of 461.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 573.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 426.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 289.97 cents and EPS of 363.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 404.2, implying annual growth of -29.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 294.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -
With China now enforcing strict restrictions aiming to keep 2021 steel output in-line with 2020 levels, Morgans expects more short-term weakness in iron ore. It's thought the Chinese government environmental targets will also weigh on the outlook.
While remaining cautious the analyst feels BHP Group shares are trading in accumulate territory. The broker maintains its Hold rating and lowers its target price to $45.20 from $45.90, after lowering iron ore price forecasts.
A recent upgrade to Morgans FY22 hard coking coal and thermal coal forecasts has offset some of the iron ore downgrade.
Target price is $45.20 Current Price is $39.16 Difference: $6.04
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.30, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 379.09 cents and EPS of 525.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 573.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 426.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 235.44 cents and EPS of 392.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 404.2, implying annual growth of -29.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 294.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAR CARSALES.COM LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $25.95
Credit Suisse rates CAR as Resume Coverage with Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse believes the core business is well-positioned amid recent growth in dealer revenue. The Instant Offer product is expected to provide short-term upside. While Carsales Select is important, any monetisation is expected to take time.
The broker alters earnings estimates to reflect the Trader acquisition and higher yield growth in Private. Following a short period of restriction, Credit Suisse resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $25.80 target.
Target price is $25.80 Current Price is $25.95 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.32, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.20 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 29.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 79.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.1, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CTD CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $21.36
UBS rates CTD as Buy (1) -
Following improved vaccination rates in Australia, UBS increases price targets for travel names generally. Specifically, the Corporate Travel Management target rises to $24.80 from $23.40. The Buy rating is unchanged.
Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $21.36 Difference: $3.44
If CTD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.85, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.20 cents and EPS of 52.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 92.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.7, implying annual growth of 114.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FLT FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $18.43
UBS rates FLT as Neutral (3) -
Following improved vaccination rates in Australia, UBS increases price targets for travel names generally. Specifically, the Flight Centre Travel Group target rises to $18.85 from $17.25. The Neutral rating is unchanged.
Target price is $18.85 Current Price is $18.43 Difference: $0.42
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.09, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 73.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -51.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is -0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of -0.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 70.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.27
Morgans rates FMG as Reduce (5) -
With China now enforcing strict restrictions aiming to keep 2021 steel output in-line with 2020 levels, Morgans expects more short-term weakness in iron ore. It's thought the Chinese government environmental targets will also weigh on the outlook.
After lowering iron price forecasts, allowing for prevailing low-grade discounts and altering the valuation methodology, the analyst lowers the target price to $14.15 from $19.20 for Fortescue Metals Group. The reduce rating is unchanged.
Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $15.27 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.74, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 293.56 cents and EPS of 390.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 400.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 330.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 22.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 175.71 cents and EPS of 234.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 219.1, implying annual growth of -45.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.89
Credit Suisse rates IPL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Credit Suisse expects fertiliser pricing will peak in 2021. Pricing is expected to remain above the mid-cycle average in 2022 as markets appear to be well supplied. Meanwhile, the outlook for the explosives business seems stable.
The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform and reduces the target to $2.98 from $2.99, adjusting for fertiliser pricing expectations. Production assumptions are reduced to allow for the outage at Waggaman.
Target price is $2.98 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.09
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.33 cents and EPS of 19.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 131.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.87 cents and EPS of 24.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley notes European gas prices have risen sharply, driving costs higher for European fertiliser producers and even prompting the closure of some capacity. It's felt Incitec Pivot will benefit from higher fertiliser prices without the corresponding input pricing pressure.
The company's key gas inputs are contractually fixed in Australia and linked to a Henry Hub price in the US (European prices are four times US equivalents). The broker lifts its target price to $3.55 from $2.90. Overweight maintained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.66
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 131.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IRE IRESS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $12.08
Credit Suisse rates IRE as Neutral (3) -
EQT has abandoned acquisition discussions with Iress, indicating it was unable to support its investment thesis following due diligence. Iress has reaffirmed guidance for 2021 constant currency profit of $164-168m.
Credit Suisse believes a large amount of due diligence was done on product and suspects there were either more specific issues uncovered or the bidder had not done the appropriate preparation ahead of time.
Nevertheless, this is considered likely to weigh on investment sentiment for some time. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $12.00 from $15.97.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.08 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If IRE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.89, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 42.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.3, implying annual growth of 24.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 41.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of -3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.16
Macquarie rates NHC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Macquarie continues to prefer iron ore and metallurgical coal amongst the bulk commodities. The broker is positive about coal, given the upside from buoyant spot prices.
While upgrading to Outperform from Neutral, the broker notes movements in thermal coal prices present the main risk to its base case valuation of New Hope. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.20.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.24
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 97.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED
Gold & Silver
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Overnight Price: $9.27
Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie reiterates a preference for Northern Star in the large cap gold sector.
The strategy team has upgraded short and medium-term gold price forecasts and now expects gold prices to average US$1750/oz in the fourth quarter of 2021 and US$1625/oz in 2022.
Outperform retained. Target is raised to $14 from $13.
Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $9.27 Difference: $4.73
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.99, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of -75.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.30 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.40
UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -
UBS predicts Nufarm can deliver an additional 10% earnings (EBITDA) growth in FY22 and raises its price target to $6.04 from $5.95. Cost-out benefits from the Performance Improvement Program and organic growth from agriculture demand are thought to be key drivers.
The analyst notes elevated crop prices are driving near-record planted acreage forecasts in both North America/Australia, and Europe plantings continue to normalise after three years of significant drought impacts. The Buy rating is unchanged.
Target price is $6.04 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $1.64
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 43.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.35
Macquarie rates ORE as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie expects regional lithium prices will follow the strong moves in prices in China and upgrades forecasts by up to 20% for 2021 and 2022.
The improved earnings outlook drives target increases for lithium miners and the broker retains a preference for Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) and Liontown Resources ((LTR)) over Orocobre.
Outperformed maintained. Target rises to $11.80 from $10.80.
Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $9.35 Difference: $2.45
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.69, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 42.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $23.30
Macquarie rates OZL as Outperform (1) -
Incorporating changes to copper and gold price forecasts has enhanced Macquarie's preference for copper miners. OZ Minerals remains a key sector pick. Outperform retained. Target rises to $32 from $30.
Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $23.30 Difference: $8.7
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.80, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 180.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.2, implying annual growth of 161.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 220.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.7, implying annual growth of -6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $2.29
Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie expects regional lithium prices will follow the strong moves in prices in China and upgrades forecasts by up to 20% for 2021 and 2022.
The improved earnings outlook drives target increases for lithium miners and the broker retains a preference for Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources ((LTR)) over Orocobre ((ORE)).
The broker retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $2.90 from $2.70.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.61
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of 39.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $28.97
Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -
In a preview of FY21 results due on September 23, Citi believes downside risk to guidance is limited, despite being provided prior to the escalation of lock downs. The Neutral rating and $27.40 target price are maintained.
The analyst believes the focus will be on on how well sales transitioned online during the lock down and how inventory is being managed for the near-term. It's thought gross margin expansion and sustainable rental reductions should drive earnings over FY22/23.
Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $28.97 Difference: minus $1.57 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.68, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 174.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 160.6, implying annual growth of 84.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 88.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 95.00 cents and EPS of 127.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.0, implying annual growth of -20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $98.80
Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -
With China now enforcing strict restrictions aiming to keep 2021 steel output in-line with 2020 levels, Morgans expects more short-term weakness in iron ore. It's thought the Chinese government environmental targets will also weigh on the outlook.
While remaining cautious, the analyst feels Rio Tinto shares are trading in accumulate territory. The broker maintains its Hold rating and lowers its target price to $117 from $123, after lowering iron ore price forecasts.
Target price is $117.00 Current Price is $98.80 Difference: $18.2
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $127.71, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1383.35 cents and EPS of 1773.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2025.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1542.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 16.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 666.40 cents and EPS of 909.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1401.5, implying annual growth of -30.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1002.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.39
Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie switches its preference to BHP Group ((BHP)) and South32 over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Fortescue Metals ((FMG)).
The broker believes strong rises for most key commodity prices now provides South32 with superior upgrade momentum.
Macquarie continues to prefer iron ore and metallurgical coal amongst the bulk commodities.
Outperform retained. Target rises to $4.10 from $4.00.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $0.71
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.90 cents and EPS of 34.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 31.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley asserts the reopening trade, or at least the easy upside to the reopening trade, is already mostly captured in Scentre Group's share price. Additionally, it's thought the dividend yield already assumes there will be improvement in income.
The Equal-Weight rating and $2.90 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 22.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SIQ SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $7.71
Macquarie rates SIQ as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie reviews the various segments of the company's business and concludes, as supply constraints normalise, that demand could amount to 18,500 novated vehicles per year for 18 months from the second half of 2022.
The broker assumes novated yields move to a cumulative 6% over the first half. Estimates for earnings per share are reduced for 2021-23 to reflect expectations of delayed vehicle supply and the impact of lockdowns on consumer confidence.
Neutral retained. Target rises to $7.90 from $7.76.
Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: $0.19
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 51.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.1, implying annual growth of 63.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.10 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.73
Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley asserts the reopening trade, or at least the easy upside to the reopening trade, is already mostly captured in the Vicinity Centres share price. Additionally, it's thought the dividend yield already assumes there will be improvement in income.
Underweight rating retained. Price target is steady at $1.59. Industry view is: In-Line.
Target price is $1.59 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 21.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.92
UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -
Following improved vaccination rates in Australia, UBS increases price targets for travel names generally. Specifically, the Webjet target rises to $6.85 from $6.35. The Buy rating is unchanged.
Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: $0.93
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| 29M | 29metals | $2.35 | Macquarie | 3.60 | 3.30 | 9.09% |
| BHP | BHP Group | $37.53 | Macquarie | 56.00 | 55.00 | 1.82% |
| Morgans | 45.20 | 45.90 | -1.53% | |||
| CAR | Carsales | $25.74 | Credit Suisse | 25.80 | N/A | - |
| CHN | Chalice Mining | $7.02 | Macquarie | 9.70 | 9.60 | 1.04% |
| CRN | Coronado Global Resources | $1.24 | Macquarie | 1.60 | 1.40 | 14.29% |
| CTD | Corporate Travel Management | $20.81 | UBS | 24.80 | 23.40 | 5.98% |
| EVN | Evolution Mining | $3.72 | Macquarie | 4.00 | 3.90 | 2.56% |
| FLT | Flight Centre Travel | $17.97 | UBS | 18.85 | 17.25 | 9.28% |
| FMG | Fortescue Metals | $14.70 | Morgans | 14.15 | 19.20 | -26.30% |
| ILU | Iluka Resources | $9.15 | Macquarie | 11.50 | 11.10 | 3.60% |
| IPL | Incitec Pivot | $2.85 | Credit Suisse | 2.98 | 2.99 | -0.33% |
| Morgan Stanley | 3.55 | 2.90 | 22.41% | |||
| IRE | Iress | $11.60 | Credit Suisse | 12.00 | 15.97 | -24.86% |
| JMS | Jupiter Mines | $0.22 | Macquarie | 0.20 | 0.22 | -9.09% |
| KLL | Kalium Lakes | $0.20 | Macquarie | 0.35 | 0.34 | 2.94% |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | $1.55 | Macquarie | 1.70 | 1.20 | 41.67% |
| MCR | Mincor Resources | $1.26 | Macquarie | 1.40 | 1.35 | 3.70% |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | $45.70 | Macquarie | 79.00 | 77.00 | 2.60% |
| NCM | Newcrest Mining | $23.38 | Macquarie | 31.00 | 27.00 | 14.81% |
| NHC | New Hope | $2.06 | Macquarie | 2.40 | 2.20 | 9.09% |
| NIC | Nickel Mines | $1.00 | Macquarie | 1.15 | 1.10 | 4.55% |
| NST | Northern Star Resources | $9.16 | Macquarie | 14.00 | 13.00 | 7.69% |
| NUF | Nufarm | $4.49 | UBS | 6.04 | 5.95 | 1.51% |
| ORE | Orocobre | $8.56 | Macquarie | 11.80 | 10.80 | 9.26% |
| OZL | OZ Minerals | $22.02 | Macquarie | 32.00 | 30.00 | 6.67% |
| PAN | Panoramic Resources | $0.21 | Macquarie | 0.23 | 0.21 | 9.52% |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | $2.07 | Macquarie | 2.90 | 2.70 | 7.41% |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | $95.24 | Macquarie | 156.00 | 153.00 | 1.96% |
| Morgans | 117.00 | 123.00 | -4.88% | |||
| S32 | South32 | $3.34 | Macquarie | 4.10 | 4.00 | 2.50% |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $5.97 | Macquarie | 10.20 | 9.70 | 5.15% |
| SIQ | Smartgroup Corp | $7.66 | Macquarie | 7.90 | 7.76 | 1.80% |
| WEB | Webjet | $5.80 | UBS | 6.85 | 6.35 | 7.87% |
| WHC | Whitehaven Coal | $2.75 | Macquarie | 3.40 | 3.00 | 13.33% |
Summaries
| BHP | BHP Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $39.16 |
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $39.16 | ||
| CAR | Carsales | Resume Coverage with Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $25.95 |
| CTD | Corporate Travel Management | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $21.36 |
| FLT | Flight Centre Travel | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $18.43 |
| FMG | Fortescue Metals | Reduce - Morgans | Overnight Price $15.27 |
| IPL | Incitec Pivot | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.89 |
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.89 | ||
| IRE | Iress | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.08 |
| NHC | New Hope | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.16 |
| NST | Northern Star Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.27 |
| NUF | Nufarm | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.40 |
| ORE | Orocobre | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.35 |
| OZL | OZ Minerals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $23.30 |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.29 |
| PMV | Premier Investments | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $28.97 |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $98.80 |
| S32 | South32 | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.39 |
| SCG | Scentre Group | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.99 |
| SIQ | Smartgroup Corp | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.71 |
| VCX | Vicinity Centres | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.73 |
| WEB | Webjet | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.92 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 11 |
| 3. Hold | 9 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Monday 20 September 2021
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Disclaimer:
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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