Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

In the wake of 4Q results for 29Metals a few days ago, Morgan Stanley lowers its target to 60c from 70c, but it's thought the recent -32% share price drop is an overreaction. The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

The broker expects a return to free cash flow (FCF) positive ($66m) in 2025, and is bullish on copper. Given a tight balance sheet and relatively high costs, 29Metals has very-high leverage to an improved copper price, explain the analysts.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.31
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.60, suggesting upside of 114.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Electricity forward curves since December have not improved, Macquarie notes, with the summer surge not emerging. The broker anticipates this will limit AGL Energy's trading opportunities in FY24 around additional unhedged base load power and the renewable portfolio.

The retail operating environment indicates higher churn across major markets of NSW and Victoria.

The broker has revised its target down to $9.30 from $10.89, reflecting the softer electricity pricing. Upside is volatility is re-emerging, Macquarie adds. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $0.76
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.23, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Pixel United, Aristocrat Leisure's social gaming business, which generates 30% of segment profit, has grown materially over the years, Macquarie notes.

But the broker now sees the outlook as challenging, reflected in its forecasts, with Social Casino industry volumes hovering around current levels and new games needed to mitigate declines in the remaining portfolio.

With Aristocrat set to launch a Direct-to-Consumer platform in Social Casinos, Macquarie assumes 4% of volumes transact within this channel in FY25, and a steady increase thereafter towards 25% in time.

Outperform and $48.50 target retained.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $43.95 Difference: $4.55
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.24, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes trading multiples for the major banks are now too high given earnings and returns will likely decline in 2024, and material consensus upgrades are unlikely.

For the upcoming reporting season, the broker expects a small decline in revenue and an around 2-3% increase in expenses.

ANZ Bank is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure, followed by National Australia Bank, Westpac and CommBank. The order of preference for smaller banks is Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland.

The rating for ANZ Bank is Overweight. Target $27.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $26.92 Difference: $0.48
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.50, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Underweight (5) -

Post the resignation of CFO Stefan Camphausen on January 17, Bapcor has more recently announced the resignations of CEO Noel Meehan and Chair Margie Haseltine.

This significant turnover at Bapcor casts further doubt on the outcomes (and timeframe) of the previously announced $100m EBIT transformation target by FY25, suggests Morgan Stanley.

The Underweight rating and $5.20 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Given significant recent management changes at Bapcor, Ord Minnett believes the existing strategy will come under review, including whether the $100m of cost benefits under the company's transformation program is achievable.

In order to stem recent market share losses, the broker believes new management should move away from the ambitious target and re-focus on growing the company's businesses.

Bapcor's Chair, CEO and CFO have all resigned in recent weeks.

The Hold rating and $6.10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $0.39
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Commenting on 2Q results for BlueBet Holdings, Morgans remains optimistic about medium-term earnings growth in Australia.

Both Gross and Net Win metrics had impressive increases in the quarter of 15% and 18%, respectively, due to a significant reduction in customer acquisition costs, explains the broker.

Over in the US, operations continue to scale nicely, according to the analyst, with more details awaited at interim results.

The rating is downgraded to Speculative Buy from Add given BlueBet's higher-risk nature and substantial risk/reward profile. The 70c target is maintained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.45
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 180% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

The 2Q gross win and net win margins in Australia of 13.7% and 10.5%, respectively, exceeded Ord Minnett's forecasts for BlueBet Holdings.

Turnover in the US experienced further growth, note the analysts, as ClutchBet continues to gain traction in Iowa and Colorado.

The broker highlights management commentary the 2H will be free cash flow (FCF) neutral after significant outflows were incurred in H1, due to a heavy tech spend, rebranding, and US marketing efforts.

The Buy rating and target price of 80 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.55
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 220% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes trading multiples for the major banks are now too high given earnings and returns will likely decline in 2024, and material consensus upgrades are unlikely.

For the upcoming reporting season, the broker expects a small decline in revenue and an around 2-3% increase in expenses.

ANZ Bank is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure, followed by National Australia Bank, Westpac and CommBank. The order of preference for smaller banks is Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland.

The rating for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is Overweight. Target $9.80. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.67 Difference: $0.13
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes trading multiples for the major banks are now too high given earnings and returns will likely decline in 2024, and material consensus upgrades are unlikely.

For the upcoming reporting season, the broker expects a small decline in revenue and an around 2-3% increase in expenses.

ANZ Bank is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure, followed by National Australia Bank, Westpac and CommBank. The order of preference for smaller banks is Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland.

The rating for Bank of Queensland is Underweight. Target $5.30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a good result from CAR Group with the business model providing resilient volumes. The broker thinks the market is being conservative on revenues and earnings in Brazil, as well as on earnings in the US.

The broker has trimmed forecast earnings to reflect slightly softer media advertising revenues in the US, but rolled forward its valuation to FY25, resulting in a target price increase to $35.30 from $31.50.

Outperform retained.

Target price is $35.30 Current Price is $33.08 Difference: $2.22
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.49, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes trading multiples for the major banks are now too high given earnings and returns will likely decline in 2024, and material consensus upgrades are unlikely.

For the upcoming reporting season, the broker expects a small decline in revenue and an around 2-3% increase in expenses.

ANZ Bank is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure, followed by National Australia Bank, Westpac and CommBank. The order of preference for smaller banks is Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland.

The rating for CommBank is Underweight. Target $94. Sector view is In-Line. 

Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $114.10 Difference: minus $20.1 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.86, suggesting downside of -20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Capricorn Metals' December-quarter production beat Bell Potter's forecasts but all-in-sustaining costs were in line, and running at the midpoint of FY24 guidance.

The company added $26.5m to the balance sheet (equivalent to $870 per ounce produced), a market-leading figure observes Bell Potter, positioning it well to fund Mt Gibson Gold's ramp-up.

The broker expects gold prices to continue to rise but spies cost and recovery issues on the horizon.

EPS forecasts rise 3% in FY24; 2% in FY25; and 3% in FY26. 

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $5.95 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $1.45
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi has taken readthroughs from December results published by CSL's competitors, noting the details are broadly consistent with the broker's expectations for CSL's  first half. 

According to the broker, results suggest strong demand for immunoglobulin, with Takeda reporting immunoglobulin sales growth of 17.5% for the period. By comparison, Citi is forecasting 20% sales growth over the full year for CSL.

Competitive pressure, particularly in the US, was also noted by peers, which Citi expects is consistent with its expectation that CSL is winning share in a difficult market.

The Buy rating and target price of $325.00 are retained.

Target price is $325.00 Current Price is $296.76 Difference: $28.24
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVS as Buy (1) -

EnviroSuite's December-quarter sales update missed Bell Potter's forecasts, falling short across most metrics.

The broker observes that annual recurring revenue has been stuck at $2m for four of the past five quarters, having suffered from a large churn and currency headwinds.

The broker cuts revenue and earnings estimates across the forecast period.

Buy rating retained, the broker expecting the December-half result should show the company is progressing towards a cash-flow positive position. Target price falls -19% to 13c from 16c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.045
If EVS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GSS as Buy (1) -

Genetic Signatures' December-quarter fell well short of Bell Potter's forecasts as a result of well-aired issues from the FluB test.

The broker retains the faith, observing the company has resubmitted an updated test to the TGA and expects positive resolution this quarter.

The company closed the quarter with $26m cash, which includes $8m received from the January 2024 capital raising.

The broker also expects FDA approval of the GI parasite test in the June quarter and commercialisation is forecast for the December half with installations already under way.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 75c from 80c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.27
If GSS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGO as Buy (1) -

IGO's December-quarter result missed Bell Potter's forecasts dogged by weaker nickel and lithium sales and pricing. The big miss was nickel sales due to timing of shipments.

A few other hiccoughs were encountered: Remediation at the Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Refinery put paid to the broker's hopes of higher throughput; half-owned subsidiary Tianqi Lithium Energy failed to pay a dividend; and Cosmos Nickel Mine triggered another -$150m to -$175m impairment as it moved into care and maintenance.

EPS forecasts slump -32% for FY24; -22% for FY25; and -14% for FY26. Hold rating retained. Target price falls to $7.80 from $8.50.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $0.56
If IGO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Accumulate (2) -

To reflect Incitec Pivot shares trading ex-entitlements, re the $500m capital return related to the WALA ammonia plant sale, Ord Minnett lowers its target by -7% to $3.25.

The broker suggest this may not be the last capital return, should a sale of the Fertiliser segment eventuate. Should the sale not occur, a demerger remains on the cards, according to management.

The Accumulate rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.57
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes trading multiples for the major banks are now too high given earnings and returns will likely decline in 2024, and material consensus upgrades are unlikely.

For the upcoming reporting season, the broker expects a small decline in revenue and an around 2-3% increase in expenses.

ANZ Bank is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure, followed by National Australia Bank, Westpac and CommBank. The order of preference for smaller banks is Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland.

The rating for Judo Capital is Equal-weight. Target $1.21. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.04
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Lighten (4) -

On the back of an updated outlook for James Hardie Industries' US operations by a new analyst, Ord Minnett raises its target by 12% to $51. The Lighten rating is maintained on overvaluation.

The broker now forecasts a quicker recovery in the US housing construction and discretionary repair and renovation spending, and higher group earnings (EBIT) margins, averaging 25% over the medium-term.

The increased margin assumption results from strong price increases, a mix-shift to higher-value products and improvememts from plant optimisation and manufacturing projects, explains the analyst.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $57.69 Difference: minus $6.69 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $57.64, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MME as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans believes MoneyMe's "brief" 1H trading update makes clear management's ongoing aims to improve both the overall credit quality and focus on profitability.

With 1H results due on February 28, the company pre-released an estimate for gross revenue of more than $105m, a -9% miss against the broker's forecast. This outcome was largely expected by Morgans (if that makes sense) due to the greater focus on credit quality.

The Speculative Buy rating and 25c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.16
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 178% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes trading multiples for the major banks are now too high given earnings and returns will likely decline in 2024, and material consensus upgrades are unlikely.

For the upcoming reporting season, the broker expects a small decline in revenue and an around 2-3% increase in expenses.

ANZ Bank is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure, followed by National Australia Bank, Westpac and CommBank. The order of preference for smaller banks is Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland.

The rating for National Australia Bank is Equal-weight. Target $30.30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.30 Current Price is $31.90 Difference: minus $1.6 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.44, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Visa statistics are strong lead indicators for nib Holdings' International Students and Workers business (IIHI), Macquarie notes. nib’s market weighted portfolio implies students visas granted grew 6% year on year in the Dec Q and 2% for visa holders (workers).

The government has announced changes for Australia’s migration system, forecasting net migration to fall to pre-pandemic levels in 2025 to 250k, from 375k in 2024. This would imply a notable slowdown for the IIHI market over the medium term, the broker warns.

Neutral and $7.70 target retained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Nickel Industries's December-quarter production missed Bell Potter's forecast and cash costs proved a beat (ex the MHP ramp up to nameplate capacity).

Earnings (EBITDA) also missed.

The broker retains the faith, observing the company's total attributable nickel production jumped 60% on the previous December quarter, delivering on "aggressive" growth plans; and that it logged strong margins despite weak nickel prices, taking Nickel Industries into the ranks of Tier 1 assets.

The increased dividend and buyback also point to deep value, says Bell Potter, and doubts the company will need to raise capital any time soon.

EPS forecasts fall -17% for 2023; -17% for 2024; and -26% for 2025. Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $1.53 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.75
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Citi has found itself incrementally more positive on Nufarm following a recent site visit to Laverton. The company suggests there will be less of a first half skew than initially expected.

For the broker, the key takeaway was that precipitation, particularly across the East Coast, has driven momentum and underpinned a surge in demand levels in December. 

Nufarm continues to focus on research and development to build on resources, and is exploring parts of the plant to expand capacity.

The Buy rating and target price of $5.60 are retained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.08
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Nufarm's AGM update warned of a weaker first half than previously expected. Macquarie highlights the earnings skew moving closer to a more normal 55/45%, implying first half earnings down significantly year on year on tough comparables, rebounding in the second half.

While improving seasonal conditions in Australia are positive, North America and Europe are Nufarm's largest profit regions and remain challenged, Macquarie notes.

The stock has had a good run off its October lows so the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $5.73 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.73 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.21
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PFP as Outperform (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners has reaffirmed FY24 guidance. First half earnings of $27.5m implies a 1H/2H split of 48/52% at the midpoint of guidance, Macquarie notes.

The company's $90m equity raising has halved gearing to 1.5x and almost doubled funding capacity to $170m.

The broker suggests the raising had a broadly neutral earnings per share outcome, but does mean the acquisition pipeline is in focus
for earnings accretion from here.

The raising has de-risked the balance sheet and Macquarie has increased its applied PE multiple. Target rises to $6.06 from $5.95, Outperform retained.

Target price is $6.06 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.74
If PFP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.02, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Piedmont Lithium's JV partner in the North American Lithium operation, Sayona Mining ((SYA)), reported solid NAL production in the Dec Q offset by soft sales and weak realised prices, Macquarie notes.

In January Piedmont sold a portion of its Atlantic Lithium ((A11)) shares to Assore, which provided additional cash flow for the miner.

Higher sales to Piedmont from NAL are expected in 2024, which the broker notes will boost near-term cash flow generation for Piedmont.

Target falls to 49c from 60c, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.25
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -

Pinnacle Investment Management's first half profit fell -1% year on year, in line with Macquarie's forecast following the performance fee and update in early January.

Funds under management closed at $100bn, 8% above average first half FUM. Closing FUM supports the second half outlook, the broker suggests, and excludes $1.1bn of inflows secured in late December.

Continued investment in medium-term opportunities has moderated short-term profits, but Pinnacle expects investment cost to reduce in the second half and revenues to build.

Target falls to $10.64 from $10.75, Outperform retained.

Target price is $10.64 Current Price is $9.98 Difference: $0.66
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.55, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners' December-quarter funds under management (FUM) fell shy of Bell Potter's forecasts given new fund launches underperformed expectations. 

Revenue outpaced and Other Income sharply outpaced. Net inflows did increase thanks to the new fund launches. 

Bell Potter believes the figures reflect the increase in the company's scale, as it made acquisitions, revised strategies; built new revenue streams and distribution channels; and attracted new clients.

EPS forecasts rise 4.6% for 2023 to reflect higher performance fees and asset returns; but fall -3.1% in 2024; and -3.2% in 2025 to reflect lower forecast average FUM.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $3.24 from $3.36.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.63
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Resolute Mining's end to 2023 was slightly softer than Macquarie's estimate, but previously downgraded guidance was achieved. 2024 guidance was slightly softer than indicated in the three-year outlook released late-2023, with Mako upgrades outweighed by Syama downgrades.

Execution of the Syama expansion remains important longer term, the broker suggests, as does any life extension to Mako, which the broker does not yet value. Resolute plans to provide an updated three-year outlook "in due course".

Outperform and 57c target retained.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.165
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Overweight (1) -

Due to potential earnings upside from strong activity levels, SG Fleet has been included on Morgan Stanley's list of small/mid cap companies that should outperform in the upcoming results season. 

Apart from improvements in vehicle supply, the broker also believes a decline in used vehicle prices is likely to be offset by higher disposal volumes leading into the 1H.

The Overweight rating and $3.00 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-line. 

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.63
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes investors are overly troubled by near-term negatives for Star Entertainment. Earnings are expected to recover from FY25 as operational restrictions ease.

The broker also anticipates returning VIP players and a further recovery for main-floor table gaming. The company is expected to prove its suitability, and ultimately retain its casino licences.

The Buy rating and $1.20 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.655
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 120% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 57.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates STN as Buy (1) -

With Saturn Metals delivering its December quarter report, which included the announcement of the commencement of the pre-feasibility study, initially focused on the visibility of a bulk sample pit and pilot heap leach treatment facility. 

For Shaw and Partners, high-grade near-surface drilling results were a highlight of the quarter. Two geotechical holes were drilled at the proposed site for the bulk sample pit, returning high-grade and thick intersections.

The Buy rating and target price of 44 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.305
If STN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 226% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett leaves its 50c target unchanged following 2Q operational results for Strike Energy, which included an inaugural full-quarter contribution from Walyering.

Average daily production of 20Tj/day for the company fell short of the broker's forecast due to maintenance on the Parmelia gas pipeline, which impacted Walyering's output.

Ord Minnett considers Strike's share price is undervalued following a -16% retreat from 50c in mid-January. Hold.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.075
If STX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Syrah Resources' volumes continue to be subdued, however campaign mining drove higher production volumes than Macquarie had forecast in the Dec quarter.

Production from Vidalia is expected to commence this month and offtakes and funding discussions continue on the 45ktpa expansion.

A recovery for the graphite market, first production from Vidalia and updates on funding of the Vidalia expansion are key near-term
catalysts, the broker notes.

Equtiy raising assumptions lead to a target cut to 90c from $1.00. Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.51
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting upside of 143.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

Wine Australia data have Australian wine export volumes decreasing -3% and value falling -2% over calendar 2023.

Macquarie reports the Dec Q showed improvement, which the broker partially attributes to manufacturers positioning for a potential reopening of the Chinese market.

US wine volumes continue to be soft, Macquarie notes, but commentary from peers suggests there is stability in the premium wine segment where Treasury Wine Estates is focused.

Outperform and $14.00 target retained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $10.81 Difference: $3.19
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes trading multiples for the major banks are now too high given earnings and returns will likely decline in 2024, and material consensus upgrades are unlikely.

For the upcoming reporting season, the broker expects a small decline in revenue and an around 2-3% increase in expenses.

ANZ Bank is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure, followed by National Australia Bank, Westpac and CommBank. The order of preference for smaller banks is Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland.

The rating for Westpac is Underweight. Target $21.70. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $21.70 Current Price is $23.77 Difference: minus $2.07 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.08, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources