Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AAI as Neutral (3) -

UBS continues to expect the trade war to impact metals prices over the next six months, with softening in consumption from Liberation Day uncertainty offset by moderate China stimulus.

The broker raises industrial metal prices forecasts by around 5% for 2025 and remains "constructive" on positive secular demand commodities with supply challenges, like copper and aluminium, as well as positive on gold.

UBS views limited downside on coal and nickel, while remaining cautious on lithium and iron ore.

The broker lifts EPS estimates for Alcoa by 3% and 19% for 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Neutral rating. Target price $50.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $46.33 Difference: $3.67
If AAI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter expects Amplitude Energy to reach or exceed the top end of its FY25 production guidance of 25.2–26.6PJe. 

Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) data point to 26PJ of gas plus additional oil and condensate output from the company's two key gas assets in the Otway and Gippsland basins, highlights the broker.

The Orbost Gas Plant operated at a record 67TJ/day in the June 2025 quarter, observes the analyst, enabling spot market exposure. Spot prices have recently surged as high as $17/GJ, highlighting gas’s role in firming the grid, explains the broker.

The analysts increase EPS forecasts by 21% in FY25, 20% in FY26, and 10% in FY27, reflecting stronger output and spot price dynamics.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating with a 27c target price, up from 26c.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.06
If AEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of Auckland International Airport releasing its FY25 results on August 21, Macquarie highlights earnings will encounter headwinds from cyclical challenges, Air NZ engine problems, and disruption in construction.

The analyst anticipates the company will achieve FY25 net profit after tax at the midpoint of management's guidance of NZ$290m–NZ$320m and is awaiting the pricing regulatory review.

Outperform. Target slips to NZ$8.55 from NZ$8.64. The analyst's EPS estimates are lowered by -3% for FY26 and -4% for FY27 due to non-aeronautical issues.

Current Price is $7.19. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALQ as Re-initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi re-initiated coverage of ALS Ltd with a Buy rating and $19.45 target.

The analyst believes the company is a market leader in analytical testing services and well-positioned to generate good growth, assisted by its global exposure.

ALS' "hub and spoke" model and premium pricing will allow the company to achieve better-than-expected results and internal targets for FY27, the broker highlights across Life Sciences sub-sectors.

Growing regulations around testing will also drive increased demand for the company's services.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $17.30 Difference: $2.15
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.85, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights AMP’s gross loans, acceptances and advances (GLAA) rose 0.6% between December 2024 and May 2025.

This outcome exceeds the company’s guidance of “slight growth” and supports greater earnings momentum than the broker had anticipated.

The analyst forecasts a 1H net interest margin (NIM) of 125bps, broadly in line with FY24 levels.

Improved investment market conditions in 2H25 are expected to flow through to FUM and drive upgraded earnings forecasts of 5.8% in FY25 and 9.6% in FY26.

AMP is trading at valuation levels Macquarie considers attractive. The target price is increased to $1.44 from $1.34 and the Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.1
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS continues to expect the trade war to impact metals prices over the next six months, with softening in consumption from Liberation Day uncertainty offset by moderate China stimulus.

The broker raises industrial metal prices forecasts by around 5% for 2025 and remains "constructive" on positive secular demand commodities with supply challenges, like copper and aluminium, as well as positive on gold.

UBS views limited downside on coal and nickel, while remaining cautious on lithium and iron ore.

The broker raises EPS estimates for BHP Group by 17% for FY25 and 3% for FY26.

Neutral rated. Target $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $37.20 Difference: $2.8
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.53, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

UBS lifts its 3Q 2025 Brent oil price forecast by US$3/bbl to US$65/bbl following recent volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, though the risk premium has now faded. The broker's price forecasts remain steady beyond 3Q25.

Oil market fundamentals remain weak, with UBS projecting a growing supply surplus reaching 1.8mb/d by 1Q26 due to rising OPEC-Plus production as voluntary cuts are unwound.

The broker expects global oil demand to grow by 0.8mb/d in 2025 and 1.0mb/d in 2026, though this is largely offset by increased OPEC-Plus supply.

Santos is the most preferred ASX exposure under coverage by UBS, followed by Woodside Energy.

The Neutral rating and $1.35 target are maintained for Beach Energy.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.015
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes a newspaper report suggesting payments processing company Indue may be up for sale.

The broker believes Cuscal would have a strong interest in the company, given cultural fit, business overlap and synergies which it estimates to be around $20m.

The company is well-positioned to fund this acquisition, if the opportunity comes to pass, and the broker forecasts over 60c valuation upside, depending on the price paid.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.75.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.76
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMM as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett reviewed forecasts for mining companies ahead of the June quarterlies and marked-to-market commodity prices.

The broker believes there's a risk of FY26 capex and operating costs guidance exceeding expectations, with gold and lithium miners more at risk than others.

Strong iron ore volumes are likely for the June quarter due to improved weather conditions, and less so for coal.

Rating for Capricorn Metals upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target unchanged at $10.90.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $9.52 Difference: $1.38
If CMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviewed forecasts for mining companies ahead of the June quarterlies and marked-to-market commodity prices.

The broker believes there's a risk of FY26 capex and operating costs guidance exceeding expectations, with gold and lithium miners more at risk than others.

Strong iron ore volumes are likely for the June quarter due to improved weather conditions, and less so for coal.

The broker's forecast for Capstone Copper's June quarter production is -4% below market expectations on temporary grades and recovery rate issues at Mantoverde mine and unscheduled outages at the Pinto Valley mine.

Buy. Target unchanged at $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $2.45
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.45, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi expresses surprise at the announced departure of Domino's Pizza Enterprises' CEO while acknowledging his position was more of a "turnaround specialist" than a longer-term prospect.

Alongside other management changes, the analyst infers some of the turnaround strategies in Japan and France are not reaping the desired results.

Due to the uncertainty about a new CEO and ongoing high leverage of over two times on the balance sheet, Citi downgrades the stock to Sell from Neutral and lowers net profit after tax forecasts by -4% for FY25 to -11% out to FY27.

Target price is almost halved to $14.20, down -40% due to the valuation discounts applied to the A&NZ and European businesses.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $16.96 Difference: minus $2.76 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.18, suggesting upside of 45.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Equal-weight (3) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises' CEO Mark van Dyck is stepping down, departing the company on December 23, 2025, and Jack Cowin, Chairman, will become Executive Chairman in an interim role, Morgan Stanley highlights, with the procedure for a new CEO underway.

The announcement was a surprise to the market as Van Dyck had been in the position for less than eight months.

Morgan Stanley believes his departure confirms the challenges faced by Domino's across the new strategic direction of improving franchisee profits, improved cost efficiencies, and improving leadership within the group.

No change to Equal-weight, $24 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $16.96 Difference: $7.04
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.18, suggesting upside of 45.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Following the surprise resignation of Domino's Pizza Enterprises' CEO Mark van Dyck, Ord Minnett has revisited its forecasts for the company.

The broker expects growth in store numbers to be minimal, which means lower capex needs. Focus on margins and profitability would slow same-store sales growth in the broker's view. 

The analyst now forecasts no final dividend for FY25 and no dividend for FY26.  EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -0.6%, FY26 by -1.1% and FY27 by -5.9%.

Target cut to $28 from $31. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold following share price fall.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $16.96 Difference: $11.04
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.18, suggesting upside of 45.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI is due to report FY25 results on August 21 with Macquarie anticipating net profit after tax guidance of $265m–$280m with earnings (EBITDA) margin in excess of 4.2%.

Numerous recent asset sales such as laundries and Keolis Downer will reduce revenue but underpin higher margins due to the low profitability of the assets being divested.

The analyst points to some improvements across Victorian road maintenance, with NZ still challenging, but the company has a diversified exposure as well as the Auckland Airport start-up.

Macquarie lifts EPS estimates by 1.4% for FY25 and lowers FY26 by -1%, with the stock's target price lifted 13% to $6.50. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $0.1
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EMR as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett reviewed forecasts for mining companies ahead of the June quarterlies and marked-to-market commodity prices.

The broker believes there's a risk of FY26 capex and operating costs guidance exceeding expectations, with gold and lithium miners more at risk than others.

Strong iron ore volumes are likely for the June quarter due to improved weather conditions, and less so for coal.

Rating for Emerald Resources upgraded to Hold from Lighten. Target cut to $4.00 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $0.08
If EMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviewed forecasts for mining companies ahead of the June quarterlies and marked-to-market commodity prices.

The broker believes there's a risk of FY26 capex and operating costs guidance exceeding expectations, with gold and lithium miners more at risk than others.

Strong iron ore volumes are likely for the June quarter due to improved weather conditions, and less so for coal.

The broker's forecast for Fortescue's iron ore shipments for the June quarter is 6% above consensus based on its estimate of record shipments in June.

Buy. Target unchanged at $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.97 Difference: $4.03
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.42, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GEM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie cut rating and target price on G8 Education after downgrading the occupancy forecasts for FY25-27 and uncertainty regarding the potential impact of the incident at its Creative Garden Cook Point centre.

A man who met with all employment-related checks and employed at the centre was charged with offences related to children. The broker reckons there's uncertainty about how this incident will impact the company's reputation and financials.

The broker also cut occupancy forecast for FY25 to 65% from 65.7%, and for FY26-27 to 70.5% and 71%, from 71.4% and 71.9%, respectively. 

Target cut to $1.15 from $1.53. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.075
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLI as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Helia Group has lost its lender’s mortgage insurance contract with ING Bank, which accounted for around 17% of FY24 gross written premiums (GWP), notes Macquarie. 

This ING outcome follows an earlier loss of the CommBank ((CBA)) contract and changes to the Government Home Guarantee Scheme, highlights the analyst.

The broker estimates GWP will fall to roughly one-third of FY24 levels, but points out earnings impacts will be delayed until FY28-29 due to the slow revenue recognition of existing premium reserves.

Despite the weaker long-term outlook, Macquarie highlights capital generation from the back-book remains robust, supported by low claims, enabling potential returns through to FY28.

Reflecting slight changes to profitability, Macquarie upgrades its EPS forecasts by 4–7% across FY25–27 and raises its target price to $3.35 from $3.25. The rating is also upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

The business is now undertaking a strategic review, with potential risks to capital returns should Helia choose to stop writing new business, explains the analyst.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If HLI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades Hub24 to Neutral from Buy due to valuation, with the stock trading at more than 60 times FY26 earnings estimates, which the analyst has lifted by 3% to 13% for FY25–FY27. Target price set at $89.80.

The broker forecasts 4Q25 net flows of around $4.9bn, which is 1% above consensus and down -2% on a year earlier and -1% on the previous quarter, including $900m from the Equity Trustees transition, compared to $1.8bn the previous quarter and $1.3bn from Clearview in 3Q25.

Excluding the large transactions, Citi expects net flows of circa $4bn, a rise of 26% on last year and up 9% on the March quarter.

A rise in hiring, with total headcount up 7% from a year ago versus 2% growth in the December quarter, infers some pressure towards further margin gains, the report highlights.

Target price is $89.80 Current Price is $89.73 Difference: $0.07
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.61, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JHX as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

James Hardie Industries announced it has completed the acquisition of Azek following approval from Azek's shareholders for the transaction.

Morgans factored in the business in its forecasts, but its sales estimates are conservative vs the forecasts presented by both Azek and the company.

While positive on the acquisition, the analyst expects FY26 to be soft due to high interest rates and a decline in new housing sales.

The broker also expects synergies of US$200m by FY31, far less than the US$500m-plus by FY30 flagged by the company. EPS forecasts for FY26/27/28 cut by -3%/-8%/-7%, respectively.

Target trimmed to $49 from $50. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $42.93 Difference: $6.07
If JHX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.55, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points to an improved outlook for Macquarie Group going into the 1Q AGM due to better capital markets, with global M&A up 25% on a year earlier.

The in-house Macquarie deal tracker suggests a soft June quarter but a recovery for global M&A of 10% over the balance of 2025.

Notably, distributions from private markets have recovered to clients and limited partners, which are running at half usual levels after a "drought" since 2018.

Morgan Stanley raises FY26 net profit after tax by circa 2.5% for 8% annual growth, although consensus at 20% for 1H26 is viewed as too high.

The addition of northern hemisphere public markets has the potential to add around 5% to net profit after tax forecasts for FY26, or $200m.

Target price lifts to $216, up 9% due to higher valuation multiples and earnings forecasts.

Target price is $216.00 Current Price is $229.02 Difference: minus $13.02 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $214.98, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviewed forecasts for mining companies ahead of the June quarterlies and marked-to-market commodity prices.

The broker believes there's a risk of FY26 capex and operating costs guidance exceeding expectations, with gold and lithium miners more at risk than others.

Strong iron ore volumes are likely for the June quarter due to improved weather conditions, and less so for coal.

The broker sees less risk of surprise from Newmont Corp on production or guidance, but expects it to increase the share buyback size.

Buy. Target unchanged at $115.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $89.37 Difference: $25.63
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $101.20, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

UBS continues to expect the trade war to impact metals prices over the next six months, with softening in consumption from Liberation Day uncertainty offset by moderate China stimulus.

The broker raises industrial metal prices forecasts by around 5% for 2025 and remains "constructive" on positive secular demand commodities with supply challenges, like copper and aluminium, as well as positive on gold.

UBS views limited downside on coal and nickel, while remaining cautious on lithium and iron ore.

The broker lifts EPS estimates for Newmont Corp by 16% and 1% for 2025/2026, respectively.

Buy rated. Target $105.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $89.37 Difference: $15.63
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $101.20, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its forecasts for Northern Star Resources following the completion of De Grey Mining acquisition. 

The broker expects the acquisition to reduce the company's reliance on other assets post-FY30 and to improve its growth profile by 27% by FY30. However, near-term risk increases due to the inclusion of a large and complex development project.

FY26-27 EPS forecasts cut by around -33% on dilution and delay in the KCGM Golden Pike project.

Target trimmed to $18.10 from $19.40. Hold maintained.

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $18.77 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.23, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUZ as Speculative Buy (1) -

Neurizon Therapeutics signed an agreement with Elanco Animal Health for the rights to use Monapantel, the active ingredient in its drug NUZ-001. The deal also includes the use of non-clinical studies and manufacturing data for neurogenerative diseases.

Morgans reckons the undisclosed upfront payment is immaterial and milestone payments are mostly funded from sales after commercialisation. The focus for both parties is getting the drug to market while keeping upfront costs low for the company.

The broker believes the company will save time and risk with this deal, highlighting Elanco's success with other companies in getting a drug to market with as little hindrance as possible.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 42c.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.26
If NUZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades Netwealth Group to Neutral from Buy due to valuation, which exceeds 60 times FY26 earnings estimates, post a rise in the forecast for net profit after tax by 2% to 7% for FY25–FY27. New target price is set at $33.65.

The analyst views consensus forecasts for net flows in 4Q25 as too high for the platform and forecasts growth of 7% annually and up 12% on the March quarter at $3.9bn, which assumes gross inflow of $8.1bn (up 18% on the previous year) and gross outflow of -$4.3bn, a rise of 29% annually.

Citi expects gross outflows to be higher in 4Q25 due to market volatility in April, especially for high net worth accounts, and the broker is positioned below consensus by -12%.

Looking ahead, opex is anticipated to advance by 17% in FY26, which sits 2ppts higher than consensus.

Target price is $33.65 Current Price is $33.82 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.37, suggesting downside of -19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS lifts its 3Q 2025 Brent oil price forecast by US$3/bbl to US$65/bbl following recent volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, though the risk premium has now faded. The broker's price forecasts remain steady beyond 3Q25.

Oil market fundamentals remain weak, with UBS projecting a growing supply surplus reaching 1.8mb/d by 1Q26 due to rising OPEC-Plus production as voluntary cuts are unwound.

The broker expects global oil demand to grow by 0.8mb/d in 2025 and 1.0mb/d in 2026, though this is largely offset by increased OPEC-Plus supply.

Santos is the most preferred ASX exposure under coverage by UBS, followed by Woodside Energy.

Origin Energy is the broker's favoured Australian Utility exposure. The Buy rating and $11.70 target are unchanged.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $10.92 Difference: $0.78
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.61, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett reviewed forecasts for mining companies ahead of the June quarterlies and marked-to-market commodity prices.

The broker believes there's a risk of FY26 capex and operating costs guidance exceeding expectations, with gold and lithium miners more at risk than others.

Strong iron ore volumes are likely for the June quarter due to improved weather conditions, and less so for coal.

Sell retained for Pilbara Minerals. Target rises to $1.15 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS continues to expect the trade war to impact metals prices over the next six months, with softening in consumption from Liberation Day uncertainty offset by moderate China stimulus.

The broker raises industrial metal prices forecasts by around 5% for 2025 and remains "constructive" on positive secular demand commodities with supply challenges, like copper and aluminium, as well as positive on gold.

UBS views limited downside on coal and nickel, while remaining cautious on lithium and iron ore.

The broker raises EPS estimates for Rio Tinto by 1% for 2025 and 3% for 2026.

A Neutral rating and $120 target are maintained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $108.30 Difference: $11.7
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.92, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RSG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviewed forecasts for mining companies ahead of the June quarterlies and marked-to-market commodity prices.

The broker believes there's a risk of FY26 capex and operating costs guidance exceeding expectations, with gold and lithium miners more at risk than others.

Strong iron ore volumes are likely for the June quarter due to improved weather conditions, and less so for coal.

Buy retained for Resolute Mining. Target cut to $0.90 from $1.00.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.275
If RSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

UBS continues to expect the trade war to impact metals prices over the next six months, with softening in consumption from Liberation Day uncertainty offset by moderate China stimulus.

The broker raises industrial metal prices forecasts by around 5% for 2025 and remains "constructive" on positive secular demand commodities with supply challenges, like copper and aluminium, as well as positive on gold.

UBS views limited downside on coal and nickel, while remaining cautious on lithium and iron ore.

The broker lifts forecast FY25 EPS for South32 by 3% and lowers FY26 by -6%.

Neutral rated. Target $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SLC as Buy (1) -

Superloop’s Smart Communities business is a high-quality, long-term growth driver potentially worth $510m or $1.00 per share, assesses UBS. It's felt consensus is materially underestimating its value.

Smart Communities generates annuity-style revenue by owning last-mile fibre in new residential developments, explains the broker, which forecasts 12,000 new lots per year at a 38% return on invested capital (ROIC).

While timing of revenue recognition is uncertain, UBS incorporates the business into its valuation, leading to a price target increase to $3.80 from $2.55. The Buy rating is retained.

The broker draws comparisons to past market favourites like Opticomm and Uniti, which followed similar models and achieved premium takeout multiples.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.8
If SLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Santana Minerals published an updated pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Bendigo-Ophir gold project in NZ where the changes vs the previous Nov 2024 PFS are reduced capex but higher costs and lower gold production rates.

Bell Potter reckons the changes are within the margin of error, given it's a development project and the lower valuation is offset by lower funding and lower financial risk.

The broker's revisions include a delay in production start to early 2027 from late 2026, lower capital costs and an update to ore reserve estimate.

The analyst also factored in $80m equity raise into the forecasts, which is the main reason for the downgrade to target price.

Target cut to $1.18 from $1.30. Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.64
If SMI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Santana Minerals signed a deal to buy four land records totalling 2,880 hectares over part of its 100%-owned Bendigo-Ophir gold project in NZ for NZ$25m.

The acquisition will void -1% of a gross production royalty over 50% of the Rise and Shine, Come in Time and Srex deposits. 

Shaw and Partners estimates the value of the royalty to be around $52.7m based on the current resource estimate and the spot gold price.

The deal will make development activities easier, the broker notes, along with the benefit of null royalty.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $1.36. 

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.82
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 152% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

UBS lifts its 3Q 2025 Brent oil price forecast by US$3/bbl to US$65/bbl following recent volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, though the risk premium has now faded. The broker's price forecasts remain steady beyond 3Q25.

Oil market fundamentals remain weak, with UBS projecting a growing supply surplus reaching 1.8mb/d by 1Q26 due to rising OPEC-Plus production as voluntary cuts are unwound.

The broker expects global oil demand to grow by 0.8mb/d in 2025 and 1.0mb/d in 2026, though this is largely offset by increased OPEC-Plus supply.

Santos is the most preferred ASX exposure under coverage by UBS. Shares are trading at a -14% discount to the non-binding take-private proposal from the XCL Resources Group-led consortium, likely due to market concerns over FIRB approval and bid progression.

The Buy rating and $7.90 target are maintained.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: $0.21
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Trim (4) -

Morgans made minor revisions to its forecasts for Transurban Group based on the consumer price index, spot AUD/USD and AUD/CAD, the $50m/year cost-out program and the latest swap rates.

It resulted in a small upgrade to operating EBITDA and free cash forecasts across FY25-27.

Trim. Target lifted to $13.04 from $12.65.

Target price is $13.04 Current Price is $13.89 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.91, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS lifts its 3Q 2025 Brent oil price forecast by US$3/bbl to US$65/bbl following recent volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, though the risk premium has now faded. The broker's price forecasts remain steady beyond 3Q25.

Oil market fundamentals remain weak, with UBS projecting a growing supply surplus reaching 1.8mb/d by 1Q26 due to rising OPEC-Plus production as voluntary cuts are unwound.

The broker expects global oil demand to grow by 0.8mb/d in 2025 and 1.0mb/d in 2026, though this is largely offset by increased OPEC-Plus supply.

Santos is the most preferred ASX exposure under coverage by UBS, followed by Woodside Energy.

The target price for Woodside Energy rises to $23.30 from $23.20. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $23.30 Current Price is $23.82 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.98, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources