Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Equal-weight (3) -

As anticipated by Morgan Stanley, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a 5.8% year-on-year rise in births for 2024.

Although tangible impacts will take time, the broker suggests improved birth rates will drive better sentiment for a2 Milk Co's key infant milk formula (IMF) market.

Buy rated. Target price NZ$5.90. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $5.81. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley previews stocks under coverage in the Utilities sector ahead of February results, favouring the outlook for AGL Energy and Cleanaway Waste Management due to attractive valuations and thematic earnings tailwinds.

AGL Energy's leverage to pool prices will be positive for EPS and DPS, explains the broker, with key tailwinds in data centres and/or competitor closures.

First half results are due on February 12.

Overweight. Target $12.88. The Industry view is "Cautious."

Target price is $12.88 Current Price is $11.72 Difference: $1.16
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AIA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley previews stocks under coverage in the Infrastructure sector ahead of February results, favouring the outlook for Qube Holdings and Auckland International Airport.

The broker likes Auckland International Airport's trading outlook, regulatory progress, and bond yield risk skew.

First half results for Auckland International Airport are due on February 20.

Equal-weight. Target NZ$8.70. Industry View: Cautious.

Current Price is $7.82. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Prior to quarterly operational updates over the next two weeks, Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector, favouring the outlook for Santos and Karoon Energy.

The broker forecasts a 2H Lytton refining margin for Ampol of US$4.12/bbl (consensus US$3.94/bbl).

The date of the quarterly for Ampol is not yet available.

The broker's target rises to $32 from $30. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $29.68 Difference: $2.32
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.59, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley previews stocks under coverage in the Infrastructure sector ahead of February results, favouring the outlook for Qube Holdings and Auckland International Airport.

For Aurizon Holdings, the broker acknowledges an attractive yield but sees downside risk to consensus forecasts.

Fourth quarter traffic and toll numbers are due on January 29.

Equal-weight. Target $5.30. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.25
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley previews stocks under coverage in the Utilities sector ahead of February results, favouring the outlook for AGL Energy and Cleanaway Waste Management due to attractive valuations and thematic earnings tailwinds.

For APA Group, the broker highlights valuation headwinds from rising bond yields and energy transition uncertainty, including medium-term recontracting and growth opportunities tied to the energy transition.

The Equal-weight rating and $8.08 target are maintained. The industry view remains In-Line.

Target price is $8.08 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $1.13
If APA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes risks remain in the second half for Aurizon Holdings, with potential impacts from weather and delays, and notes growth execution in the Bulk and freight strategy has been underwhelming.

The analyst suggests progress in the Bulk division is necessary for a sustained re-rating. Meanwhile, yield and cash flow are expected to support the share price.

The target price is reduced to $3.52 from $3.57 as the broker factors in a lower return from freight. The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.52 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.24
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley previews stocks under coverage in the Infrastructure sector ahead of February results, favouring the outlook for Qube Holdings and Auckland International Airport.

For Aurizon Holdings, the broker acknowledges an attractive yield but sees downside risk to consensus forecasts.

First half results are due on February 17.

Equal-weight. Target $3.57. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $3.57 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.29
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of BHP Group's quarterly operational update tomorrow, UBS updates its production forecasts based on insights from Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) quarterly results, where weaker Pilbara shipments were offset by stronger copper production.

The broker maintains its $42 target for Neutral-rated BHP Group, noting that higher grades at Escondida should help offset risks to WA iron ore production caused by recent wet weather.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $40.05 Difference: $1.95
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.31, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Prior to quarterly operational updates over the next two weeks, Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector, favouring the outlook for Santos and Karoon Energy.

For Beach Energy, the broker sees potential for a narrowing to the lower end of FY25 production guidance of 17.5-21.5MMboe

The quarterly is due on January 22.

The broker's target rises to $1.46 from $1.30. Underweight. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $1.46 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Add (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker expects Challenger to reconfirm FY25 guidance of around 10% net profit after tax growth.

Target price slips to $7.90 from $8.20 due to lower multiples on the company's life business earnings. No change to the Add rating as the stock remains "too cheap" at current levels.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.13 Difference: $1.77
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker updates earnings forecasts for COG Financial Services following the 1Q25 trading update, which revealed a decline in performance of -7% compared to a year earlier.

Morgans lowers EPS forecasts by around -10% for FY25/FY26 on weaker growth expectations for finance broking, aggregation, asset management, and lending.

Target price slips to $1.16 from $1.25. Speculative Buy rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $1.16 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.18
If COG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 47.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CPU as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker downgrades Computershare to Hold from Add due to the stock price re-rating.

Fewer consensus US interest rate cuts in 2025, now expected at one versus two previously, and a strong 1Q25 trading update lead the broker to believe there is FY25 earnings upside risk.

No change to EPS estimates. Target price remains at $34.43.

Target price is $34.43 Current Price is $34.24 Difference: $0.19
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.09, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades CSL to Buy from Accumulate, with the stock sitting -11% below its 2024 high.

The broker highlights the latest US data on influenza and vaccine distribution from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. Volumes of vaccines distributed fell -7% year-on-year and remain -25% below covid highs.

The US immunisation rate has dropped to 42%, where it was 10 years ago, the analyst states.

Management's Seqirus revenue guidance for FY25 was "flattish" and Ord Minnett forecasts total revenue growth of 2%, with some potential benefit from the recent Avian H5N1 bird flu.

Behring's outlook is viewed as "bright" by the broker, with lower collection costs, price increases, and improved production efficiency.

Target price remains unchanged at $318.

Target price is $318.00 Current Price is $275.06 Difference: $42.94
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.79, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVW as Add (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

No changes to earnings forecasts for ClearView Wealth by the broker.

Add rated. Target price 59c.

Target price is $0.59 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.23
If CVW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley previews stocks under coverage in the Utilities sector ahead of February results, favouring the outlook for AGL Energy and Cleanaway Waste Management due to attractive valuations and thematic earnings tailwinds.

The broker highlights Cleanaway's risk-adjusted returns are in the top quartile of Morgan Stanley's stock coverage.

First half results are due on February 19.

Target $3.23. Overweight. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.23 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.45
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Despite higher real US interest rates, UBS expects gold to extend its rally as haven and diversification buying persists due to geopolitical risks, with consumer demand remaining resilient.

Evolution Mining's quarterly update is due this Wednesday and the broker forecasts 192koz of gold production, just -1% short of the consensus estimate.

The Neutral rating and $5.40 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Hold (3) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker tweaks EPS estimates for Generation Development by less than 1% in FY25/FY26.

Target price rises to $4.01 from $3.51 on a roll-forward of the valuation and higher growth assumptions for Lonsec.

No change to the Hold rating.

Target price is $4.01 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Despite higher real US interest rates, UBS expects gold to extend its rally as haven and diversification buying persists due to geopolitical risks, with consumer demand remaining resilient.

Gold Road Resources released its December quarter update on January 6, resulting in 2024 production of 287.3koz, just short of management's downgraded guidance of 290-305koz, explains the broker.

The Buy rating and $2.30 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reiterates the Buy rating on GQG Partners following the latest FUM results for December.

The company reported a net flow of -US$0.2bn, aligning with November's net flow of -US$0.1bn, both well below the 2024 average net inflow of US$1.8bn.

FUM as of 31 December came in at US$153bn, down -4.1% over the month but up 26.9% on the previous corresponding period.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -1% to -7% over FY25-FY27. Target price falls to $2.80 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.875
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 45.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Citi details benign weather in NZ compared to Insurance Australia Group's allowance should support the company's 1H25 insurance margin. December has also been a "benign" month for Australia, marked only by a high number of smaller events, the broker states.

The analyst forecasts $165m of positive variance, and investment returns are estimated to be strong with a rollover of mark-to-market in December 2024 estimates. A more favourable reinsurance market should assist with the group's CAT renewals, explains Citi.

The broker's EPS forecasts are raised by 8% in FY25 and 1% in FY26.

Target price rises to $9.65 from $9.55. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: $0.99
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The analyst observes 1H25 has been a benign weather period for CAT events domestically and estimates CAT claims to be -$150m below allowances for Insurance Australia Group.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 6% in FY25 and 2% in FY26. Target price rises to $8.64 from $8.46. No change to the Hold rating.

Target price is $8.64 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KSL as Add (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker retains the 2024 EPS forecast and raises 2025/2026 EPS estimates by 7% and 15%, respectively, due to the lower tax rate announced by the government on PNG banks to 40% from 1 January 2025 and 35% from 1 January 2026.

Target price rises to $1.45 from $1.28. Add rating retained.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.325
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in PGK. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOT as Outperform (1) -

Lotus Resources is working towards a 3Q 2025 restart for its Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi and now appears fully funded after a $132m capital raise (including a share purchase plan), according to Macquarie.

The broker anticipates a re-rating of Lotus shares as the Kayelekera restart progresses to first drum and offtake agreements are signed.

Outperform rating. The target slips to 40c from 42c largely due to the analyst allowing for the extra shares issued post the capital raise.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.165
If LOT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 134.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter observes Lynas Rare Earths' NdPr production fell -23% in the December quarter compared to the previous quarter, well below both Bell Potter's and consensus estimates.

Sales rose 16% quarter-on-quarter to 2.87kt at an average price of $49.2/kg. Cash at quarter-end stood at $308m, with -$141m spent on the Mt Weld expansion and Kalgoorlie capitalised costs, the broker states.

The analyst highlights production limits in Malaysia and impurity issues at Kalgoorlie. Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -21% in FY25 and -26% in FY26.

Hold rating retained. Target price decreases to $7.20 from $7.70.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.17
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths reported lower-than-forecast sales and production in 4Q 2024, with revenue below Citi and consensus estimates by -12% due to the company reaching the lanthanide processing limit in late November.

The Kalgoorlie mixed rare earth carbonate was also impacted by technical problems.

The broker highlights the market remains challenged by weak demand from China and believes consensus price forecasts are overly optimistic.

Management retained FY25 capex guidance at -$400m-$500m, with target production at 10.5ktpa in FY25. The broker notes integration of the Mt Weld expansion project stage 1 progressed "well."

Citi lowers EPS forecasts by -20.3% in FY25 and -17.3% in FY26 due to lower production estimates and softer NdPr price assumptions, offset by a weaker AUD and lower depreciation expectations.

Sell rating maintained. Target price remains at $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: minus $1.53 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights Lynas Rare Earths' second-quarter operational update revealed production and sales misses of -17% and -9%, respectively, against consensus forecasts.

Management attributed the shortfall to impurities challenges at Kalgoorlie's mixed rare earths carbonate (MREC) facility.

More positively, the cash balance of $308m aligned with market expectations and is expected to support Lynas through a period of weakness in the rare earths market, notes the analyst.

The target falls by -1% to $7.20. Neutral.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.17
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Impurities at the Kalgoorlie mixed rare earths carbonate (MREC) facility led to lower-than-expected production for Lynas Rare Earths in the December quarter, explains Morgan Stanley. The company has identified technical solutions to address these issues.

Management anticipates challenging conditions in the rare earths market will persist into the March quarter due to subdued Chinese demand and extended Lunar New Year holidays.

The Underweight rating and $5.70 target are maintained. The industry view remains Attractive.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: minus $1.33 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights disappointing production from Lynas Rare Earths in the December quarter due to impurities in the mixed rare earth carbonate from Kalgoorlie.

A lower AUD assisted the realised price of $49/kg, the highest in the past year. The company generated operating cash flow of $49m, which the analyst views as a strong result in a weak quarter.

The problems with impurities are not expected to continue, Ord Minnett explains. Management intends to push production more aggressively to offset lost sales. 

The $7.80 target price and Buy rating for Lynas Rare Earths are maintained.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.77
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Following quarterly results for Lynas Rare Earths, UBS notes management navigated challenging market conditions by achieving improvements in its selling price.

The broker's FY25 production assumptions remain largely unchanged despite a -23% miss on NdPr production for the quarter, as the annual Malaysian lanthanide processing allowance was exhausted, and impurities in the feedstock impacted output from Kalgoorlie.

The analysts expect production to accelerate toward the financial year-end with the reset of the Malaysian lanthanide processing allowance.

The Neutral rating and $7.95 target are maintained.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.92
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAF as Add (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker believes MA Financial is well positioned to produce compound earnings growth over time but notes a "patchy" operating environment is currently blurring the more positive growth outlook for the company's main businesses.

Add rating and $6.67 target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $6.67 Current Price is $6.17 Difference: $0.5
If MAF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.62, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates a Buy rating on Megaport, with the uptick in hiring viewed as a positive for the company, despite recent price cuts that may result in slower net revenue retention.

The broker notes "plenty of unanswered questions" regarding the slowdown in net revenue retention, though the price cuts could reflect increased competition.

On a positive note, Citi anticipates growth from new products, including Global WAN and data centre sites, and estimates annual recurring revenue growth of 13% in FY25 to $230m, based on an assumed net revenue retention of 105%.

There is upside potential to FY26 forecasts from higher AI inference workloads and enterprise adoption, the analyst details, though earnings margins are expected to remain flat at this stage.

Citi lowers FY25/FY26 earnings estimates by -15% and -44%, respectively, and the target price falls to $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: $1.48
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.14, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades Megaport to Buy from Hold following a decline in the share price of over -40% in the last six months.

The analyst believes the risk/reward is more attractive at current levels, with upside potential for higher subscriber numbers and services growth following the company's price rises in FY24.

There are no changes to the broker's earnings forecasts.

Buy rating maintained with a $8 target price.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: $0.48
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.14, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MPL as Hold (3) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker highlights Medibank Private's operating performance has been strong with a positive claims backdrop. The stock is trading at around 18x prospective FY25 earnings and is fairly valued, the analyst states, at this point in the cycle.

Morgans makes minimal changes to EPS estimates.

Target price shifts to $4.10 from $4.14. Hold rating remains.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.31
If MPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi continues to forecast Nick Scali's UK operations will generate a loss in 1H25 following the DFS trading update, which pointed to an increasingly challenged UK market, including weaker demand and higher costs.

The broker believes management's refurbishment strategy, with four already completed, will offset some of the trading headwinds.

A similar domestic refurbishment strategy should support improved pricing. Citi flags concerns an improvement in the Australian housing market could be delayed due to interest rates remaining higher for longer.

Nick Scali remains Buy-rated with a $15.31 target price.

Target price is $15.31 Current Price is $15.13 Difference: $0.18
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.30, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Neutral (3) -

Despite higher real US interest rates, UBS expects gold to extend its rally as haven and diversification buying persists due to geopolitical risks, with consumer demand remaining resilient.

Recent pre-released quarterly updates from Gold Road Resources and Regis Resources suggest positive implications for Newmont Corp's upcoming release, notes UBS.

The broker forecasts 6.75moz of gold production for Newmont in 2024.

The Neutral rating and $82 target are maintained.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $66.90 Difference: $15.1
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Citi updates nib Holdings' earnings forecasts for mark-to-market adjustments and changes in growth assumptions. The analyst is awaiting the April 1 price increases and highlights although the stock is not expensive, there is no "rush" to gain exposure.

The analyst is seeking more evidence management has secured greater control over arhi claims inflation.

Citi lowers EPS estimates by -2% in FY25 and -5% in FY26.

Target price falls to $6 from $6.45. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.48
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Add (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The recent spike in claims for nib Holdings' A&NZ operations is yet to be confirmed as a company-specific or sector-wide issue, the broker details.

Morgans lowers EPS estimates by -2% in FY25 and -3% in FY26.

Target price falls to $6.10 from $7.31 due to lower earnings forecasts and a lower valuation ascribed to the stock on "higher risks."

No change to the Add rating.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.58
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

Despite higher real US interest rates, UBS expects gold to extend its rally as haven and diversification buying persists due to geopolitical risks, with consumer demand remaining resilient.

The broker remains confident in FY25 guidance for Northern Star Resources and forecasts second-quarter production of 418koz, slightly below the consensus forecast, with costs (AISC) just under $2,000/oz, aligning with consensus.

The quarterly update is due tomorrow.

The Buy rating and $19.05 target are maintained.

Target price is $19.05 Current Price is $17.45 Difference: $1.6
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley previews stocks under coverage in the Utilities sector ahead of February results, favouring the outlook for AGL Energy and Cleanaway Waste Management due to attractive valuations and thematic earnings tailwinds.

Energy Markets headwinds for Origin Energy are related to retail discounting and opex pressures, offsetting constructive pool prices, explains the broker.

First half results are due on January 31.

Underweight. Target $9.06. The Industry view is "Cautious."

Target price is $9.06 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.93, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Neutral (3) -

Following an extended research restriction on Paladin Energy, Macquarie resumes coverage, incorporating the completed Fission Uranium acquisition.

The target is reduced to $9.10 from $15, reflecting materially lower EPS forecasts due to higher costs associated with the new Canadian presence and project expenses related to the Patterson Lake South (PLS) project in the Athabasca Basin.

The broker assigns a Neutral rating but sees long-term share price upside. Management's lower production guidance for Langer Heinrich, issued last November, is considered achievable.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: $0.47
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.51, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

Despite higher real US interest rates, UBS expects gold to extend its rally as haven and diversification buying persists due to geopolitical risks, with consumer demand remaining resilient.

Perseus Mining's quarterly update is due January 29 and the broker forecasts 119koz of gold production, just below the consensus estimate for 122koz.

The Buy rating and $3.35 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.61
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PXA as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker upgrades Pexa Group to Add from Hold with a $14.61 target price.

There are no changes to Morgans' earnings forecasts for the group.

Target price is $14.61 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $1.63
If PXA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi forecasts benign weather to support QBE Insurance's combined operating ratio at the upcoming 2024 earnings result. The broker's estimate is above guidance.

In terms of CAT allowance, despite severe weather in late December in the US, European storms, and Victorian fires, the analyst expects a positive FY24 variance of above US$80m.

US fire loss is anticipated to be less than -US$350m of maximum event retention. QBE has less than 1% market share in the Californian insurance market.

Lower crop prices for corn and soybeans will likely pressure the company's gross written premium in FY25, Citi explains, and some softening in rate increases is expected.

Target price moves up to $22 from $19.30. The broker lifts 2024 EPS by 1%.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.68 Difference: $2.32
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.38, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker expects QBE Insurance to report 2024 results in line with guidance, noting the company's exact exposure to the LA fires remains a "live event," with estimated insurance industry losses of around -US$40bn.

Morgans lifts the 2024 EPS estimate by 6% and lowers 2025 by -1%. Target price rises to $21.74 from $21.37 on a valuation rollover. No change to Add rating.

Target price is $21.74 Current Price is $19.68 Difference: $2.06
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.38, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QPM as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of QPM Energy with a Speculative Buy rating and a 12c target price.

The company is a natural gas producer, electricity generator, and potential developer of a nickel/cobalt refinery in Queensland.

The Moranbah gas project is highlighted by the broker as the company's "cornerstone" asset, featuring good infrastructure, surplus compression capacity, and reserves of 318PJ (2P).

Production is expected to reach 35TJ by FY26, a growth of 21% on FY25, which would underpin electricity production of over 240GWh from FY25, Ord Minnett details.

The analyst finds the valuation attractive but acknowledges the risks to volatile electricity prices.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.055
If QPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QUB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley previews stocks under coverage in the Infrastructure sector ahead of February results, favouring the outlook for Qube Holdings and Auckland International Airport.

For Qube Holdings, the broker anticipates growth in agriculture (specifically grain), autos, and energy, offsetting weaker performance in
forestry, and containers on weaker macroeconomic conditions.

Qube reports 1H results on February 20.

Target $3.90. Equal-weight. Industry View: 

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Commenting on media reports regarding merger discussions last year between Rio Tinto and Glencore (unconfirmed by both parties), Morgan Stanley highlights a lack of geographic overlap, limiting potential industrial synergies between the two asset portfolios.

The broker notes the largest overlap involves copper, with a merger potentially consolidating around 8% of the global mined copper market on a 2025 basis, which could face regulatory approval challenges.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and a $136 target. The industry view remains In-Line.

Target price is $136.00 Current Price is $118.74 Difference: $17.26
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.17, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Rio Tinto reported a -15% fall in realised iron ore prices for the December quarter compared to the previous quarter, driven by a higher share of lower-grade SP10 product. Shipment volumes were in line with market expectations.

The copper business benefited from increased output at Oyu Tolgoi and better grades at Escondida. Alumina and bauxite delivered better-than-expected results, including improved plant utilisation rates at the Queensland alumina refinery.

The broker lifts EPS forecast by 1.5% for 2024 but lowers 2025 EPS forecast by -3%. Management retained iron ore guidance for 2025, though Ord Minnett sees some risk to the market outlook for volumes in 2025.

No change to the Buy rating. Target price rises to $132 from $131.

Target price is $132.00 Current Price is $118.74 Difference: $13.26
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.17, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources announced stronger-than-expected production at Tropicana in its pre-released disclosures ahead of the quarterly report. The company also flagged group production of 101.3koz, record cash and bullion of $529m, and repayment of a $300m term loan.

Citi adjusts the forecast cash tax payment assumption due to tax losses and incorporates a weaker AUD with gold prices higher by 5%-6%.

The analyst raises earnings forecasts by around 11% from FY26 onward.

Target price is lifted to $3 from $2.90. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.03
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

On first take, Citi notes South32 reported a "strong" December quarter, with aluminium, alumina, and Cannington all coming in above the broker's forecasts.

Working capital was boosted by aluminium sales and increased by around US$120m in the December quarter to approximately US$270m in 1H25.

Capex totalled approximately -US$210m in 1H25, including -US$57m at Illawarra metallurgical coal prior to sale and -US$250m at Hermosa.

Management has revised cost guidance for 1H25 due to higher raw material prices in the aluminium chain, with some slowing anticipated in 2H25.

Neutral rating maintained. Target price $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.42
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Prior to quarterly operational updates over the next two weeks, Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector, favouring the outlook for Santos and Karoon Energy.

The broker believes cost reductions and growth investment look significant over the next two years at Santos, leading to higher dividends/buybacks.

The December quarterly for Santos is due on January 23.

The target rises to $7.77 from $7.65. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $7.77 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0.52
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.00, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi anticipates benign weather will support earnings for Suncorp Group in 1H25 and estimates a favourable variance of $165m.

The broker also believes strong investment returns have been achieved and highlights mark-to-market adjustments for December 2024.

More details on the proposed capital reduction are expected at the upcoming 1H25 earnings announcement. Citi expects the group to report a strong result.

Citi raises EPS forecasts by 5% for FY25 and retains a Neutral rating, with a preference for QBE Insurance and Insurance Australia Group.

Target price rises to $19.90 from $18.55.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: $0.32
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.83, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Add (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The analyst observes 1H25 has been a benign weather period for CAT events domestically and estimates CAT claims to be -$150m below allowances.

Morgans lifts the FY25 EPS forecast for Suncorp Group by 4%, and the target price rises to $21.01 from $18.92. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $21.01 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: $1.43
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.83, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TYR as Add (1) -

Morgans marks-to-market earnings forecasts for insurance and diversified financials, considering market performance, the weaker AUD, and higher bond yields in Australia, the US, and Great Britain.

The broker lowers the FY26 EPS estimate by -5% on weaker revenue growth and earnings margin expectations.

Target price falls to $1.51 from $1.63. No change to the Add rating.

Target price is $1.51 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.665
If TYR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting upside of 62.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Prior to quarterly operational updates over the next two weeks, Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector, favouring the outlook for Santos and Karoon Energy.

For Viva Energy, the broker expects the 2H planned outage at the Geelong refinery will weigh on the margin.

The date of the quarterly for Viva Energy is not yet available.

The broker's target rises to $3.25 from $3.18. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.47
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Equal-weight (3) -

Prior to quarterly operational updates over the next two weeks, Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector, favouring the outlook for Santos and Karoon Energy.

For Woodside Energy, the quarterly is due on January 22.

The Equal-weight rating and $27 target are unchanged. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.75 Difference: $1.25
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.72, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners points to the potential Spanish Stock Exchange listing of Hotbeds with a primary offering of EUR725m, with the funds raised targeted at de-gearing the company's balance sheet.

The analyst observes Web Travel's WebBeds is generating higher growth rates in revenue and total travel volumes compared to Hotbeds, and the company's FY25 outlook suggests to the analyst WebBeds' revenue margins have stabilised.

Shaw and Partners believes FY25 is a rebasing year for Web Travel and expects 20% earnings growth in FY26.

Target price is lifted to $6.70 from $6.60. No change to the Buy rating.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $1.99
If WEB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources