Australian Broker Call

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July 25, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 12:09 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
PNI - PINNACLE INVESTMENT Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
WSA - WESTERN AREAS Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
A2M  THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $9.86

ADDED

Macquarie rates A2M as Outperform (1) -

A2 Milk and partner Fonterra have begun selling co-branded fresh milk in NZ. The broker envisages opportunities to do the same in other markets in which Fonterra has strong awareness, with partnerships to help accelerate a2's global expansion.

With the FY18 result already well flagged, near term catalysts are limited, the broker notes. Outperform and $12.40 target retained.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $9.86 Difference: $2.54
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.72, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.11 cents and EPS of 34.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of 42.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AFG  AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

Banks

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Overnight Price: $1.47

Morgans rates AFG as Add (1) -

The share price has weakened over recent months which Morgans attributes to increased investor concerns about the potential for changes to broker remuneration and the risk of a cooling residential property market.

The broker believes both of these are overplayed in the share price and the revenue drivers are not appreciated. Add rating maintained as the stock is viewed as offering attractive value with earnings growth and a fully franked dividend yield of around 8% on offer. Target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.53
If AFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.80.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.19.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALX  ATLAS ARTERIA

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $6.44

Deutsche Bank rates ALX as Buy (1) -

Toll revenue growth in the second quarter on APRR was ahead of Deutsche Bank's forecasts. There was a stronger-than-expected boost from the airline and train strikes earlier in the year, while higher fuel prices have not yet had an impact.

Buy rating retained. Target is $6.85.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.41
If ALX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -64.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 43.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Atlas Arteria's June Q traffic numbers showed an above expectation result from APRR but ongoing weakness for Greenway and an ongoing tough outlook, the broker notes.

Outperform retained, target rises to $6.79 from $6.49.

Target price is $6.79 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.35
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 52.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -64.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.40 cents and EPS of 72.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 43.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates ALX as Add (1) -

June quarter data revealed further strong growth on the APRR asset amid traffic declines on Dulles Greenway. As APRR contributes more than 80% of the equity value Morgans considers this a net positive.

The broker lifts forecasts for the first half but does not expect a change to 2018 distribution guidance of $0.24. Add maintained. Target rises to $6.85 from $6.76.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.41
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -64.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 43.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ALX as Buy (1) -

June quarter revenue growth was better than UBS expected, driven by 7% growth at APRR and despite ongoing weakness at Dulles Greenway, where revenue was down -3%.

UBS also updates forecasts for the payment of $55m in performance fees for FY18 and the refinancing of the Dulles Greenway acquisition facility. Buy rating and $7.10 target maintained.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.66
If ALX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -64.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.99%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 43.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC  AMCOR LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $14.78

Morgans rates AMC as Hold (3) -

Morgans forecasts 3% operating earnings growth for FY18 when the company reports on August 21. The main focus is on the impact of higher raw material costs, beverage volumes in North America and emerging markets.

While the valuation is starting to look attractive, Morgans believes the operating environment remains uncertain and there are potential downside risks to earnings forecasts, particularly while oil prices trend upwards. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $13.54 from $13.74.

Target price is $13.54 Current Price is $14.78 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.24, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.22 cents and EPS of 81.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.10 cents and EPS of 87.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.6, implying annual growth of 8.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWN  CROWN RESORTS LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $13.50

Deutsche Bank rates CWN as Hold (3) -

Crown Melbourne is expected to benefit from higher VIP and slots revenue growth. Deutsche Bank believes Crown is benefiting from recent upgrades and has a better growth profile than Star Entertainment ((SGR)) for the next three years.

Nevertheless, the broker finds it difficult to justify the differential between the two as Crown is now trading at a 33% premium to Star Entertainment on an FY19 PE multiple basis.

Hold retained. Target is raised to $12.80 from $12.40.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $13.50 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.37, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of -78.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $9.65

UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes Goodman should continue to benefit from strong structural trends and its consistent approach to risk and capital allocation. There are substantial global opportunities and the flexibility to maintain the current development run rate.

UBS envisages 8% growth in EPS in FY18 and FY19. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $9.45 from $8.45.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 46.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.40 cents and EPS of 50.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands

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Overnight Price: $11.49

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Citi saw a strong June quarter production performance, even with the inclusion of downgraded production from Sierra Rutile. Estimates have been lifted, pushing up the price target to $14 from $13.70.

Buy rating retained with the analysts noting the realised rutile price was well above their own forecast, suggesting a strong market. Iluka has increased rutile prices for H2 2018 by 14% to circa US$1030/tonne, which is slightly ahead of Citi's forecast.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.49 Difference: $2.51
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 82.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 108.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Sales in the first half and guidance for 2018 impressed Credit Suisse, along with a lift in rutile pricing of 14% for the second half. Credit Suisse expects further upside to realised prices in the second half when Iluka begins a new contract period for zircon.

Mineral sands revenue for the first half was 13% above the broker's estimates. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $12.30 from $11.10.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $11.49 Difference: $0.81
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 90.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 94.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka enjoyed a strong June Q, beating on revenue forecasts. Rutile production guidance has been cut but this is more than offset by stronger guidance on zircon shipments and rutile pricing, the broker notes.

The broker expects Iluka to lift its zircon reference price next month to provide the next catalyst but as the stock is fairly valued, Neutral retained. Target rises to $12.30 from $11.90.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $11.49 Difference: $0.81
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 95.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Rutile pricing contracted for the second half is higher than Morgan Stanley estimated. Rutile guidance has been downgraded to 185,000t for 2018.

All second half high-grade titanium dioxide feedstock production has been contracted and supply requests have exceeded Iluka's ability to supply.

Zircon markets also remained tight in the first half. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating for Iluka. Industry view is In-Line. Target is $12.60.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $11.49 Difference: $1.11
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -

The June quarter performance was reasonable, UBS believes. Production was down -7% while sales were up 14%. UBS lifts 2018 earnings estimates by 21%.

With lower net debt, UBS expects more capital expenditure in the second half as projects continue to advance. The mineral separation plant upgrade at Sierra Leone is due for completion in 2019. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.50 from $13.00.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $11.49 Difference: $1.01
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN  KOGAN.COM LTD

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $5.62

UBS rates KGN as Buy (1) -

The company has guided to FY18 revenue of more than $405.3m and operating earnings of over $23.8m. No update was provided on verticals, which UBS believes will be a focus for the FY18 result.

The broker reduces FY18-20 estimates for EPS by -9-15%. This reflects higher marketing costs in the second half and modestly lower revenue assumptions. The broker reiterates a Buy rating and reduces the target to $9.55 from $10.60.

Target price is $9.55 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $3.93
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.13.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.62.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL  MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $3.10

Ord Minnett rates MPL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett sets its target price at a -10% discount to valuation to account for the uncertainty of a Labor victory at the next federal election. Target falls to $2.81 from $3.04. Lighten maintained.

The broker assumes additional modest earnings pressure, even with a coalition government, from FY20. Medibank Private will report its FY18 result on August 24.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.81 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEW  NEW ENERGY SOLAR

EV, Solar & Batteries

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Overnight Price: $1.45

Morgan Stanley rates NEW as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has an agreement with First Solar to progressively acquire the Beryl solar plant in NSW. Beryl is only partly contracted, with 69% of production sold to NSW transport under a 15-year power purchase agreement. The acquisition price is not disclosed. Morgan Stanley believes the interest in Beryl can be funded from cash and corporate debt.

The company has also announced a security purchase plan for existing shareholders for up to 58m new securities, in order to manage gearing and new investment. Equal-weight retained. Industry view: Cautious. Target is $1.53.

Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.08
If NEW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.75 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.67.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.87 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.53.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF  NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.53

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's forecasts do not take into account a Labor victory and the likely 2% premium rate cap for two years. The broker notes the stock has performed poorly since the last result and while there is some valuation upside potential the political uncertainty holds it back.

Nib Holdings is due to report its FY18 result on August 20. The broker maintains a Hold rating. Target reduced to $5.71 from $6.60.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.71 Current Price is $5.53 Difference: $0.18
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.85, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 5.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA  ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $3.64

Morgans rates ORA as Add (1) -

Morgans expects solid growth of 8% in FY18 operating earnings when the company reports on August 9. This will be driven organically, with acquisitions making a minor contribution.

The broker makes no changes to forecasts. Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.87 from $3.68. Given the strong balance sheet the broker envisages upside potential from further acquisitions.

Target price is $3.87 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.23
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.55, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 19.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 9.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGH  PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $5.19

Morgans rates PGH as Hold (3) -

Morgans forecasts FY18 operating earnings to be up 7% when the company reports on August 15. The operating environment is expected to stay tough and earnings supported by prior acquisitions.

The company has struggled to generate organic earnings growth over the past three years and, while benefit should accrue from the Woolworths ((WOW)) crate pooling contract, the broker continues to closely monitor Pact's ability to grow outside of acquisitions. Hold rating maintained with a $5.24 target.

Target price is $5.24 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $0.05
If PGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.6, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.99

Credit Suisse rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals now has first spodumene concentrate production from its coarse circuit following first production from the fines circuit in June. This meets the planned timeframe for the completion.

Credit Suisse observes future downstream chemical processing to lithium carbonate or hydroxide may reveal a preferred source feed over time that could have implications for future prices/demand. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $1.15 target.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.16
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI  PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $6.22

Ord Minnett rates PNI as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

The company has invested in Metrics Credit Partners and Omega Global Investors for a combined $48m. Pinnacle has provided third-party distribution assistance to Metrics Credit since 2013. Ord Minnett suggests this relationship mitigates some of the usual investment risks.

Affiliate funds under management finished FY18 better than expected and this provides some momentum in FY19 to supplement the accretion from these investments. Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $6.43 from $5.19.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $6.43 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $0.21
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.07.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.26.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT  PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $43.80

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a solid result when the company reports on August 30. The key will be the new CEO's strategic direction. Morgan Stanley is looking for investment base fee margins of 71 basis points in the second half, steady with the first.

Within equities, base fee margins are expected to be 82 basis points in the second half versus 80 basis points in the first half.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $46. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $43.80 Difference: $2.2
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.12, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 265.00 cents and EPS of 297.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 299.3, implying annual growth of -0.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 269.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 270.00 cents and EPS of 298.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 300.9, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 273.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RBL  REDBUBBLE LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $1.57

Morgans rates RBL as Add (1) -

Preliminary FY18 financials showed strong growth in revenue and gross profit, in line with expectations. While forecasts are being downgraded, Morgans lifts the target to $1.91 from $1.66 as a new starting year is rolled forward. The target is now set by DCF valuation alone.

The broker believes the business is on track for another year of 30% growth. Add maintained. Risks are considered to diminish greatly if the company hits FY19 guidance.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.34
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.61.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 196.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD  RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $14.53

UBS rates RMD as Neutral (3) -

ResMed is due to report its result on August 3. UBS makes a modest increases to earnings estimates from FY21. With the full quarter of US sales for the Philips DreamWear full-face mask the broker expects some impact on ResMed's share for new patient set-ups in the fourth quarter.

Nevertheless, new patient referrals and growth in re-supply to the installed base remain robust. The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to US$109 from US$106.

Current Price is $14.53. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $13.59, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 45.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.05 cents and EPS of 46.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RSG  RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.28

ADDED

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Resolute's June Q production was its strongest this year and ahead of guidance. The key to FY19 guidance is the ramp up of Syama underground, the broker suggests, which remains on track.

Recent studies have improved the production outlook for all projects, with Syama to lead the climb to 500koz+ by FY22, the broker notes. Outperform and $1.60 target retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.32
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.70 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.70 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.59.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $18.75

Deutsche Bank rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Wine exports to China were up 55% by value over FY18, according to the industry's quarterly update on export activity.

Deutsche Bank suggests the data, in light of the recent issues relating to Treasury Wine's exports to China, provide some indication as to whether or not port bottlenecks have persisted.

Hold rating and $16 target maintained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $18.75 Difference: minus $2.75 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.42, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of 34.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.50 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 28.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Australian wine export growth to China has accelerated but Morgan Stanley remains cautious about extrapolating this to Treasury Wine. The company has experienced delays in some wine destined for China so the latest data may not necessarily be in line with the company's sales.

Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley finds the data encouraging. Overweight and $20 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.75 Difference: $1.25
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.42, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of 34.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 45.50 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 28.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

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Overnight Price: $29.31

ADDED

Macquarie rates WBC as Outperform (1) -

Westpac has taken another defensive move, the broker suggests, in lowering wealth management pricing, launching a simplified product and introducing an online dealer hub. The bank needs to materially improve performance to justify its recent investment in WM, the broker warns.

If competitors follow, the result will simply be lower industry profitability with no impact on market share. With forward PE at below average and a 6.3% yield on offer the broker retains Outperform. Target falls to $33.00 from $33.50.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.31 Difference: $3.69
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.35, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 241.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.7, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 200.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.2, implying annual growth of -0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 192.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $48.75

Credit Suisse rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse is intrigued by the company's decision to retain a residual ownership in Coles after the de-merger as well as the nomination of a long-serving Wesfarmers director as chairman, although adds this is not necessarily a negative. The broker does not find the proposed capital structure overly demanding.

No significant constraints on funding are signalled, unless there is a significant increase in capital expenditure at Coles combined with downside pressure on profit margins, in the broker's opinion. Neutral rating and $47.31 target maintained.

Target price is $47.31 Current Price is $48.75 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.88, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 204.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of -10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 209.00 cents and EPS of 256.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.2, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $3.38

Citi rates WSA as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Previously Citi's house forecast was for weaker nickel prices ahead, which underpinned its Sell rating for Western Areas. As the house view has now shifted towards "a more constructive view" on nickel (their words) the rating has moved to Neutral. Target price lifts to $3.20 from $2.60.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of -15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 310.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
A2M A2 MILK Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.86
AFG AUSTRALIAN FINANCE Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.47
ALX ATLAS ARTERIA Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $6.44
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.44
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $6.44
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.44
AMC AMCOR Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $14.78
CWN CROWN RESORTS Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $13.50
GMG GOODMAN GRP Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $9.65
ILU ILUKA RESOURCES Buy - Citi Overnight Price $11.49
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $11.49
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.49
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.49
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $11.49
KGN KOGAN.COM Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.62
MPL MEDIBANK PRIVATE Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.10
NEW NEW ENERGY SOLAR Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.45
NHF NIB HOLDINGS Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.53
ORA ORORA Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.64
PGH PACT GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.19
PLS PILBARA MINERALS Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.99
PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.22
PPT PERPETUAL Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $43.80
RBL REDBUBBLE Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.57
RMD RESMED Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $14.53
RSG RESOLUTE MINING Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.28
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $18.75
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $18.75
WBC WESTPAC BANKING Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $29.31
WES WESFARMERS Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $48.75
WSA WESTERN AREAS Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $3.38
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

18

3. Hold

12

4. Reduce

1

Wednesday 25 July 2018

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