Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter expects Life360 to post another strong result when it reports its second quarter 2025 numbers on August 12.

The broker forecasts revenue of US$109.1m, up 29% year-on-year, and earnings (EBITDA) of US$12.8m, a rise of 16%, with user growth and subscription metrics continuing to expand at a double-digit pace.

Despite the sequential drop in earnings from US$15.9m in the March quarter due to higher marketing spend, Bell Potter anticipates the company will reaffirm 2025 guidance.

There are no changes to the broker's revenue or earnings forecasts in 2025, but earnings upgrades of 5% and 6% have been applied in 2026 and 2027, respectively, on lower opex assumptions and expanding margins. 

Bell Potter raises its target price to $37.50 from $31.30 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $33.17 Difference: $4.33
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.75, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AL3 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter considers the receipt of a Letter of Intent (LOI) from the US Navy as a strategically important development for AML3D. The Navy plans to collaborate with the company on several key additive manufacturing initiatives.

AML3D’s Arcemy technology has been identified as pivotal to meeting the US Navy’s forecast of 100 system installations, highlight the analysts. Arcemy is a line of large-format, industrial metal 3D printers based on Wire-arc Additive Manufacturing.

The company is expected to contribute to the supply of around 400 components in 2026, rising to 1,600 by 2030, notes the broker. Management will be regularly briefed on demand forecasts to support an expansion of US production capacity.

Bell Potter also notes the recent opening of AML3D’s new advanced manufacturing facility in Ohio on June 20.

There are no changes to financial forecasts, as the broker had already factored in increased system sales to the US maritime sector. However, the LOI has prompted a reduction in the applied WACC to 10.1% and an increase in the EV/Revenue multiple to 7.5 times.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and raises the target to 35c from 30c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.1
If AL3 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AL3 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the US Navy naming AML3D's Arcemy wire feed print printers as central for metal additive manufacturing across the maritime industrial base is a positive development for the company.

The US Navy issued a non-binding letter of intent, which means there is no legal purchase obligation but the broker believes it still means the company has become a solution provider from a pilot stage vendor.

The broker sees the company being contract-ready by 2026 to win its share of the proposed Congressional spending in the US.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.15
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AMI as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners has initiated coverage of Aurelia Metals with a Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 50c.

The broker notes the company is transforming from a multi-metal producer to a copper-focused portfolio by FY28. This transition will result in a revenue split of 50% copper-gold and 50% zinc-lead, reflecting a shift towards future-facing metals, the broker highlights.

The analyst reckons the ongoing ramp-up of the Federation mine and the development of the Great Cobar project support the company's long-term value proposition and will benefit from increasing copper demand.

The company's cash balance stood at a strong $106.7m at the end of March, supporting its growth pipeline.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.31
If AMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 76.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades AMP to Buy from Hold after raising its target price to $1.63 from $1.52 on valuation grounds and an improved earnings outlook.

The broker believes legal risks are already reflected in the AMP share price, the core business is showing signs of improvement, and the stock continues to trade at a significant valuation discount to the ASX200 Index.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.2
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AQZ as Buy (1) -

Alliance Aviation Services' sale of 12 surplus E190 engines to Beautech for around $60m has happened quicker than anticipated. 

Morgans' expected the entire transaction to take place in FY26, but 10 of the 12 engines will be delivered in FY25, reducing net debt and generating free cash flow.

The broker now expects FY25 net debt at $390m vs $428.5 previously and left the FY26 forecast unchanged. 

With further debt reduction plans for FY26 and capex requirement for 10 additional E190 aircrafts, the analyst now thinks the company will have to monetise some of the incoming aircraft, leading to lower net profit projections.

Buy. Target cut to $3.80 from $3.90 after FY26-27 net profit before tax forecasts cut by -3.3% and -0.9%, respectively.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $1.09
If AQZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights new vehicle sales rose 2.4% in June on a year earlier and increased for the first time in ten consecutive months. Passenger vehicle sales fell –27.9% on the previous year, while SUV sales advanced by 9.4%. Light commercial rose 11.3%, and heavy commercial declined by –10.6% on sales a year earlier.

For ARB Corp, its major sectors saw vehicle sales growth of 15% (SUV and light commercial), with utes, Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger sales lifting by 10% and 0.1%, respectively.

The analyst notes the decline in vehicle sales over the past six months will be a potential headwind for ARB’s aftermarket operations, with 2H25 pressure on gross margins a possibility.

No change to forecasts. Buy rating retained. Target unchanged at $37.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $34.18 Difference: $2.82
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.98, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX equities trading volumes accelerated meaningfully in the June quarter, highlights Macquarie, with average daily volume up 29.2% year-on-year. There was also a 14.3% increase over Q3.

Futures activity was strong, according to the analyst, with daily volumes rising 14.0%, driven by growth in 90-day bank bills (up 14.5%) and 3-year bonds (30.0%), beating the broker’s forecasts.

Capital markets activity remained subdued except for IPOs, which rose to $7.6bn from $2.8bn year-on-year.

Macquarie eases its target price to $65.50 from $66.00 and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $65.50 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $4.89 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.00, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Bellevue Gold’s preliminary June quarter production of around 39koz fell just short of the lower end of guidance, missing the 40-45koz range by circa -1koz.

The shortfall was due to a -15% miss in processed grades versus the broker's expectations, partly offset by stronger volumes and recoveries.

Full-year FY25 output of 126koz was -3% below Macquarie’s estimate, leading to a -38% cut in the broker's FY25 earnings forecast. Future years remain unchanged.

Cash and bullion rose by $65m quarter-on-quarter to $152m, matching the analyst's expectation, while $100m in debt remains intact with no repayments due until 2027. 

Macquarie highlights record operational metrics in June including 18.1koz production and improved development rates.

The $1.30 target price and Outperform rating are maintained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.36
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS has reversed its cautious iron ore demand outlook as tariff uncertainties ease but sees downside risk to demand ahead, with supply expected to increase from Australia and Simandou.

While the market is currently balanced, the broker forecasts a surplus emerging over the next 12 months, with prices expected to average around US$90/t in 2026.

For metallurgical coal, UBS expects prices to remain range-bound around US$180/t over the next 1–2 years, with limited downside below that level.

Demand is under pressure in key regions like India, China, and Japan/Korea/Taiwan, explain the analysts, due to elevated steel exports and rising domestic or Mongolian supply.

While the medium-term outlook for met coal is more positive, the market must first absorb upcoming supply additions, notes UBS.

The Neutral rating and $40 target are maintained for BHP Group.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $38.60 Difference: $1.4
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.53, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy has extended repayment terms on a US$10.4m loan to enCore Energy, its joint venture partner in the Alta Mesa project, with a new repayment date set for December 27, 2025.

A further US$3.6m cash facility has also been extended, observes Bell Potter, repayable on the same date or earlier if enCore raises at least US$23.5m in equity.

The broker highlights the purpose is to provide enCore with working capital for the Alta Mesa project, and in the event of default, Boss Energy may assume a controlling 51% stake.

While the extension raises questions about enCore's financial position, Bell Potter sees strategic value in Boss Energy potentially gaining control of one of the few operating uranium mines in the US.

Unchanged Buy rating and a $4.65 target price.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.66
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Citi regards Breville Group's official launch in China via a digital-only strategy for the coffee category as positive, but doesn't believe it will turn into a meaningful opportunity.

This is because the coffee category in China is only a small proportion (2% in volume terms) of the overall small kitchen appliance market.

The broker sees more opportunity in the cooking and food preparation categories, though a headwind would be a higher concentration of competitor brands vs the US market.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $38.20.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $29.88 Difference: $8.32
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.63, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAT as Buy (1) -

UBS envisages significant valuation upside for Catapult International if growth targets are met.

The broker forecasts US$41m ($62m) in cash earnings by FY28, supported by 18% recurring revenue growth and 40–50% incremental margins.

The analysts see the recent Perch acquisition for -US$18m as strategically compelling. It's expected to enable deeper integration of off-field and on-field performance data, and expand cross-sell opportunities across Catapult’s 3,600 pro team clients.

UBS raises its 12-month price target to $7.00 from $5.70 to reflect upgrades in earnings forecasts and re-rating of 'Rule of 40' peer group multiples.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.82 Difference: $1.18
If CAT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.33, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CBO as Hold (3) -

Cobram Estate Olives has provided a FY25 update with oil production volumes below Bell Potter's forecast but a higher return per litre due to a favourable sales mix.

Company-owned harvest volumes reached 14.2mL versus the broker’s 16.0mL estimate, with total supply of 15.3mL including third-party and new supply, below the 17.5mL expected.

FY26 is flagged as an off-year, with the analysts maintaining a 12.5mL forecast for company orchards.

FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $115m is slightly above Bell Potter’s $113m forecast and in line with consensus. A shift in mix toward higher-priced branded products has supported margins despite lower volumes.

Bell Potter's forecast changes reflect this mix shift, lifting FY25 forecast earnings by 2%, FY26 by 13%, and FY27 by 8%. The broker views the move to premium Cobram-labelled products as positive for profitability.

The target price rises to $2.35 from $1.95 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If CBO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBO as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Cobram Estate Olives to Accumulate from Buy while lifting the target price to $2.66 from $2.23 due to higher short-term earnings and local cash flows.

The company has announced a 2025 Australian harvest of 15.3m litres, including third-party volumes, which is within the usual 15% variability due to agricultural impacts, the analyst explains.

The harvest is sufficient for feedstock to the higher-margin brands and products for FY26, with management's earnings (EBITDA) guidance of around $115m better than the analyst's previous forecast by 5%.

The robust nature of pricing suggests the company’s brands are resilient to increased foreign competition and price discounting.

Target price is $2.66 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.22
If CBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CBO as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Cobram Estate Olives issued guidance for 2026, noting that despite an "off year" for olive trees, Australian harvest intake will only be modestly lower than 13.2m litres of oil processed from its own groves in 2025.

Shaw and Partners considers the update positive as the intake is higher than its expectations. The broker is now estimating 25m litres of intake from 2025 plus 2026, which is 13% higher than 2023 plus 2024.

Revenue forecast for FY26 upgraded by 3.5% and by 3.7% for FY27.

Buy, High Risk. Target rises to $2.85 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.41
If CBO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes Challenger continues to offer compelling valuation appeal despite its strong outperformance so far in 2025.

Upcoming regulatory changes are expected to further support the annuity provider’s growth.

Buy. The target rises to $9.35 from $9.00.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $8.06 Difference: $1.29
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.83, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Sell (5) -

UBS continues to flag FY25 EPS growth of around 15% for Computershare despite some "mixed" indications for transactional activity in 4Q25, including US debt market issuance up 9% and trustee issuance declining –22% on a year earlier.

The analyst now expects the margin income on global interest rate futures to decline more marginally over FY26–FY27. Every plus/minus $1bn in exposed variable rate balances has a plus/minus 3% impact on forecast FY26 EPS.

Sell rating retained and target rises to $40 from $38.70. The broker’s EPS estimates are raised by 2.5% for FY25, with the FY26 forecast broadly unchanged.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $40.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.60, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Domino’s Pizza Enterprises to Buy from Neutral, citing accelerated cost savings, reaffirmed FY25 earnings guidance, and valuation support following recent share price weakness.

The broker notes the CEO’s departure was driven by a board directive to expedite cost savings, particularly in IT, with potential opex reductions of -$20–40m and lower capex.

These savings are expected to support sales, increase franchisee profitability, and boost group earnings (EBITDA). Despite remaining downside risk to FY26–27 earnings versus consensus, UBS believes this is now priced into market expectations.

Management reiterated its confidence in FY25 underlying profit guidance and confirmed its balance sheet remains solid, with no capital raise expected.

UBS lowers its target price to $22 from $25.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.02 Difference: $3.98
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.48, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as No Rating (-1) -

Ord Minnett believes general insurers QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group are entering a more challenging period, as the tailwinds from rising premium rates and investment yields begin to fade.

The broker remains research-restricted on Insurance Australia Group and is therefore unable to provide a recommendation or target price.

Current Price is $8.51. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights media reports the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) ruled against Lifestyle Communities in the deferred management fees (DMF) case filed by residents. The reports suggest VCAT found the DMF to be "void."

The broker anticipated the DMF to be allowed and now believes the company will have to write down -$250m DMF.

This will increase the gearing to 46% from 35% and impact earnings, though capital raising risk will be low due to LVR being within the covenant, the broker notes.

No change to forecasts, yet. Buy. Target unchanged at $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $1.96
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.44, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the appointment of two independent Non-Executive Directors as the board renewal continues for Mineral Resources.

Lawrie Tremain and Ross Carroll commence on July 7, with the former Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee and the latter, Chair of the Ethics and Governance Committee.

The average tenure of the company’s board is four years, compared to the ASX100 average of six years.

The analyst reinforces the appointments are aimed at improving governance and oversight of the business.

No change to Neutral rating and $26 target price. The broker’s EPS forecasts are unchanged.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.46 Difference: $1.54
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.93, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MLX as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Metals X with a Buy rating and an 80c target price.

The company owns 50% of the Renison Bell mine in Tasmania, with 10 years of reserves for output of 10ktpa containing tin, which currently trades above US$32kt.

The broker believes the market has ignored Metals X due to a lack of “self-promotion” and broker coverage, with the stock trading at only 2.x times forward EV/EBITDA.

Ord Minnett’s target price ascribes a valuation of 5 times forward EV/EBITDA and flags the company is expected to commence paying cash tax and generating franking credits, with dividends flagged for FY26.

The analyst estimates Renison has all-in sustaining costs of US$21kt, which have the potential to decline if the shallow discovery near Renison is developed.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.255
If MLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MPL as Accumulate (2) -

In a review of health insurers under coverage, Ord Minnett observes both nib Holdings and Medibank Private are likely to face a softer earnings outlook due to pressure on both revenue and margins.

The broker maintains a preference for nib Holdings, citing its stronger potential for cost savings and a more attractive valuation relative to Medibank Private.

For Medibank Private, the Accumulate rating is unchanged and the target rises to $5.15 from $4.80.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.12
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Buy (1) -

In a review of health insurers under coverage, Ord Minnett observes both nib Holdings and Medibank Private are likely to face a softer earnings outlook due to pressure on both revenue and margins.

The broker maintains a preference for nib Holdings, citing its stronger potential for cost savings and a more attractive valuation relative to Medibank Private.

For nib Holdings, the Buy rating is unchanged and the target rises to $8.20 from $7.65.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $1.11
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

After recently lowering Northern Star Resources' EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27, mainly on higher capex forecasts, Citi again revised them down by -7 to -10% following the company's FY26 cost and growth capex guidance.

Production guidance of 1.7-1.85Moz for FY26 was in line with the broker's recently downgraded forecasts, but cost and growth capex were around 15% higher than expected.

After adding sustaining capex and exploration spend to the forecasts, the broker notes the capex miss is almost -25%.

The broker highlights FY26 capex expectations have moved up nearly $2bn in the past year, and advises the company needs to do a better job with guidance.

Buy. Target cut to $21 from $22, with the analyst seeing downside risk for the KCGM outlook when guidance is provided in early August.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $16.80 Difference: $4.2
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.73, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star’s June quarter production of 444koz was broadly in line, coming in just -1% below consensus and -3% under Macquarie's estimate.

FY25 group sales reached 832koz, falling short of the 850-860koz guidance. No cost detail was disclosed, notes the analyst, though the company expects FY25 costs (AISC) to be within its $2,100–2,200/oz range.

FY26 guidance includes sales of 1.7–1.85moz, in line with Macquarie's estimates, but costs (AISC) of $2,300–2,700/oz represent a -15% miss versus consensus. The latter was driven by inflation, higher sustaining capex and gold-linked royalties, explains the analyst.

Growth capex of -$2.13–2.27bn also exceeded the broker's expectations.

Macquarie notes the full retreat from management's earlier 2moz FY26 production outlook and flags a weak start to the year at KCGM.

The $27.00 target price and an Outperform rating are maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $16.80 Difference: $10.2
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.73, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NST as Buy (1) -

Morgans observes Northern Star Resources' FY26 guidance disappointed on the three key metrics; production, costs and capex.

The FY26 production guidance missed the broker's forecast by -4% and the cost forecast is 14% higher than expected.

Higher capex guidance meant the broker's revised FY26 capex forecast was $900m higher than FY24.

The broker cut FY25 EBIT forecast by -1%, FY26 by -20% and FY27 by -9%. Buy. Target cut to $21.78 from $25.32.

Target price is $21.78 Current Price is $16.80 Difference: $4.98
If NST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.73, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources reported FY25 production and FY26 guidance, which came in below UBS’ expectations, with guidance of 1.7–1.85moz versus 2moz post the merger with Saracen Mineral Holdings.

The broker notes the update disappointed the market.

The company has flagged large increases in all-in sustaining costs at Kalgoorlie and Yandal due to multiple reasons, and sizeable growth in capex at Kalgoorlie to -$1,610m versus the analyst’s forecast of -$1,080m, with further delays at Hemo.

UBS will reassess earnings forecasts at the upcoming quarterly update and KCGM site visit on August 25.

Neutral rated with a $23 target price.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $16.80 Difference: $6.2
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.73, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights media reports suggesting Octopus Energy is close to appointing bankers to demerge its energy retail business from Kraken is in line with its own expectation.

The broker saw this as a material catalyst for Origin Energy to unlock value from its 22.7% equity stake in Octopus, expecting the inflow to be put into the Australian energy business.

The analyst believes the majority of long-term value lies in Kraken and the company will continue to have access to it. The stock rose 6% on the media reports.

Buy. Target unchanged at $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes media reports of Octopus Energy's planned de-merger of Kraken Technologies at a value of up to US$10bn boosted Origin Energy’s share price.

Commentary highlights neither company has responded to the media reports, and a base case estimate values Origin’s 22.7% share of Octopus Energy at around $3.4bn, or $1.96 per share, with a bull case valuation of $5bn.

A US$10bn value on Kraken, if the demerger were to proceed, would add around $2 to the broker's base case valuation.

Underweight. Target is unchanged at $9.46. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.46 Current Price is $11.55 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes general insurers QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group are entering a more challenging period, as the tailwinds from rising premium rates and investment yields begin to fade.

For QBE Insurance, the Hold rating and $25.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $22.75 Difference: $2.75
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.31, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS has reversed its cautious iron ore demand outlook as tariff uncertainties ease but sees downside risk to demand ahead, with supply expected to increase from Australia and Simandou.

While the market is currently balanced, the broker forecasts a surplus emerging over the next 12 months, with prices expected to average around US$90/t in 2026.

For Rio Tinto, a Neutral rating and $120 target are maintained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $108.62 Difference: $11.38
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.92, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

Ramelius Resources delivered a strong June quarter, in Macquarie's view, with production of 73koz beating the upgraded 62–72koz guidance range and exceeding consensus by 7%.

Full-year FY25 output of 302koz was 2–3% above broker forecasts, leading to an 8% uplift in the analyst's FY25 EPS estimate.

Management now expect costs (AISC) at the lower end of the $1,550–1,650/oz range, with Macquarie forecasting $1,560/oz.

Cash and bullion rose $153m quarter-on-quarter, ahead of the $110m expected by the broker. to $810m.

Macquarie retains its $3.10 target price and an Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.73
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Ramelius Resources upgraded production guidance for 4Q25 and FY25, beating Shaw and Partners' forecasts. 

The broker notes it is the first time ever the company achieved over 300koz gold production in a year, with the upgraded guidance at 301.67koz.

The analyst now expects the strong production to result in lower cost, and anticipates it to be below its forecast of $1,589/oz.

No change to forecasts. Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $3.14.

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.77
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the agreement from South32 to sell Cerro Matoso to a subsidiary of CoreX Holding, which will pay nominal consideration and assume both economic and operational control of Cerro, including liabilities, the analyst explains.

The news is not a surprise, given management had flagged a strategic review of Cerro due to weakness in the nickel market, and it is not a core asset, the broker notes.

With rehabilitation liabilities of US$136m, commentary suggests the sale will allow management to concentrate on its key assets.

Overweight rating and no change to target price at $3.05. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes the sale of Cerro Matoso’s nickel operation in Colombia to CoreX Holdings, which will generate an impairment charge of -US$130m for South32’s FY25 accounts.

CoreX will assume the liabilities and operational control of Cerro Matoso, paying a nominal upfront price with the upside potential to US$80m in price-linked consideration, the analyst states, which relies on approval for the expansion projects at Cerro, Quebradas and Porvenir.

There are expected to be minimal impacts on earnings estimates, and Ord Minnett makes no change to forecasts.

No change to Buy rating and $4.10 target price.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $1
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

UBS views South32’s sale of its Cerro Matoso nickel operation as a positive portfolio simplification move, despite modest financial proceeds.

The company will divest the asset to global industrial conglomerate CoreX for up to US$100m in milestone- and price-linked payments, and transfer a US$136m rehabilitation provision.

A non-cash impairment of -US$130m will be booked in FY25 with no impact on underlying earnings, explains the broker.

The exit reduces complexity by eliminating a challenging asset in a difficult jurisdiction, suggest the analysts, leaving the group focused on aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, silver, and manganese.

UBS expects efficiency gains, particularly in SG&A and management focus, though these are not yet quantified.

The broker retains a Neutral rating with an unchanged target price of $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.1
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes general insurers QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group are entering a more challenging period, as the tailwinds from rising premium rates and investment yields begin to fade.

For Suncorp Group, the Hold rating and $22.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $21.10 Difference: $0.9
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.34, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TTT as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Titomic, highlighting its proprietary cold spray technology as a strategic asset in additive manufacturing.

The broker points out Titomic’s solutions are now advancing beyond metal coatings and repairs into full-scale additive manufacturing of specialty alloy components, particularly suited to large, hollow structures.

Target markets include defence, aerospace, and natural resources, observe the analysts, with engagements under way with major contractors such as Boeing and Northrop Grumman.

Titomic has recenly opened a US headquarters in Alabama and appointed a board and executive team with deep defence experience.

These moves signal to the broker a focused strategy to access expanding opportunities in US and NATO-aligned military supply chains.

Bell Potter expects momentum from participation in US defence programs, commercial agreements and non-dilutive funding initiatives to drive growth, supported by rising global defence budgets.

The broker begins with a Speculative Buy rating and 50c target.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.22
If TTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources