Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates 3DA as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Amaero International with a Buy rating and a price target of 60c.

The broker notes Amaero International produces high value refractory, special alloy and titanium powders for the defense, aviation, and space industries. 

The company has higher yields, surpassing competitors and is positioned to leverage US reshoring and advanced manufacturing trends, the broker explains.

The company is expected to benefit from the expanding market for metal alloys in the USA, with -$60m in capex planned for FY25/26 funded by $45m in equity and the balance in debt.

Buy rating (High Risk) with a 60c target price.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.215
If 3DA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AAM as Buy (1) -

AuMega Metals (formerly Matador Mining) reported its June 2024 quarterly which Shaw and Partners notes highlighted its ongoing pipeline development, including various stages of gold exploration and diamond drilling.

The broker states the company is positioned as a cost-effective exposure to a promising new gold exploration province in Newfoundland Canada, with positive short-term news anticipated from assay results.

AuMega Metals recently started trading on the Toronto Venture exchange on June 26th in its re-branded format.

Buy rating with a 19c target.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.143
If AAM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 304% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AD8 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes the current Audinate Group share price is reflecting a free cashflow compound average growth rate of around 42%, which the broker states is a "high bar to meet".

The analyst points to the cyclical nature of the company's hardware sales with an estimated 89% of revenues as non-recurring, and the discounting of AVIO adaptors, the second most important revenue generator.

Including the potential cannibalisation of revenues from new products like Dante Director and challenges around cash positions, M&A and recent management changes, the broker revises earnings forecasts by -23% and -25%, for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Accordingly, the target price is lowered -20% to $14.40 from $17.90 and the Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $15.20 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If AD8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.02, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS reflects on the implications of Apollo acquiring IGT Gaming and Everi, valued at US$6.3bn, which is calculated by the analyst as a discount to the valuations ascribed to Aristocrat Leisure and Light & Wonder ((LNW)).

The broker doesn't believe the discount is a concern due to the differences in growth outlooks and it suggests this merger does not materially change the competitive landscape in North America.

UBS continues to be positive on Aristocrat Leisure and expects it to gain North American market share over the next five years, combined with a strong balance sheet allows for potential ongoing capital returns and possible re-gearing.

Buy rating and $56 target unchanged.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $53.92 Difference: $2.08
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.05, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley revisits the large four banks and envisages an opportunity for a re-pricing of deposits if the RBA cuts rates in 2025 which could offer some upside to margins.

The analyst stresses the 4 point price-to-earnings re-rating since last 2023 suggests the positive impacts of rate cuts are already discounted in the share prices, as well as a "soft-landing" and reduced competition.

The order of preference for the banks is National Australia Bank, Westpac, ANZ Bank, and CommBank.

Morgan Stanley revises EPS and dividend forecasts to account for the potential deposit re-pricing.

ANZ Bank is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight and the target revised to $26.20 from $27.80. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $28.82 Difference: minus $2.62 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.32, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APZ as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Aspen Group with a Buy rating and $2.30 target. The group owns, develops, and operates residential, retirement and holiday park communities across Australia.

The broker highlights a core focus on the affordable segment of the market by providing accommodation to the 40% of Australians who are unable to afford more than $400/week rent or $400,000 house prices.

This segment of the market is overwhelmingly undersupplied and has a significant growth runway with a total addressable market (TAM) of $1trn, according to Bell Potter.

Aspen Group is targeting a 20% return on invested capital (ROIC), a level only witnessed among fund manager REITs, points out the analyst.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.35
If APZ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVJ as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a heavily discounted opportunity in shares of AV Jennings and begins research coverage with a Buy rating and a 12-month target price of 40c.

The broker feels a -20% share price fall in 2024 is too savage in the current cycle and ignores future earnings sitting within the development pipeline.

The business involves acquiring land, developing the land, often building homes on it, then selling to first home buyers, upgraders, downsizers, and investors, explains the analyst.

The broker cites emerging green shoots for Australian housing in the form of interest rate stability, slowing costs and returning demand.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.09
If AVJ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the Antipa Minerals June 2024 quarterly activities report which highlights the identification of new zones of near-surface gold mineralisation along the northern edge of the GEO-01 discovery and at the Minyari Southeastern Extension target.

The broker highlights the report points to the company's ongoing exploration success and potential for significant resource growth.

No major changes have been made to the analyst's earnings forecast.

Buy rating and 4c target price unchanged. High Risk.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.028
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates B4P as Buy (1) -

Beforepay Group reported a better-than-expected 4Q24 earnings result, explains Shaw and Partners with EBITDA reaching $2.7m, due to robust credit risk management and growth in active users.

The broker is impressed by the company's credit management and the credit default rate for the quarter came in at 1.2% against the analyst's forecast of 1.8%, with FY24 at 1.38% versus 2.25% for FY23.

Beforepay Group continues to progress its application for an Australian credit license over 2024 which will allow it to offer loans over $2000 for more than 62 days.

Buy rating retained and the target price raised to $1.75 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $1.13
If B4P meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 182% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BDM as Buy (1) -

Production in Q2 for Burgundy Diamond Mines was impacted by annual plant maintenance activities. Management referred to broad diamond market softness but noted market interest in output from the company's Ekati Diamond Mine in Canada.

Average realised prices improved to US$103/ct (the broker forecast $105/ct), compared with US$94/ct in Q1.

2024 production guidance was reiterated.

The broker's target falls to 28c from 35c on lower EPS forecasts due to a weaker diamond price outlook. Buy.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.12
If BDM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Citi is pulling back on its strong bull call on copper as China's economic malaise looks to continue amid a broader pullback in AI and semiconductor stocks, softer manufacturing indices and physical copper prices.

While considering consumer buying strong enough to provide a solid floor, a rally comes down to timing and the broker pushes out its recovery forecasts to early 2025 when it expects Fed rate cuts will revive global manufacturing.

The broker cuts BHP's FY25/FY26 earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -6% to -7%. EPS and DPS estimates also fall.

Buy rating and $47.50 target price retained.

Target price is $47.50 Current Price is $42.07 Difference: $5.43
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.67, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Citi revises down 2025 EPS forecasts for BlueScope Steel.

While spot US prices are easing on the prospects of a Fed rate cut, the flipside is occuring in Australia - the company's core business.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has been suggesting higher rates are on the cards and Australian construction starts and approvals have hit record lows suggesting any housing recovery could be delayed out to FY26, the bulk of the decline being offset by non-residential construction, observes Citi.

Buy rating retained on US prospects. Target price is steady at $23.70.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $21.62 Difference: $2.08
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.26, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BUB as Speculative Hold (3) -

Bell Potter assesses a "strong" 4Q result for Bubs Australia with a stronger-than-expected result in China offset by softer-than expected outcome in the US.

While Bubs Australia generated gross revenues of $29.9m (a 50% year-on-year increase), this level was short of the broker's $32.2m forecast.

Management sees a clear pathway to positive trading earnings (EBIT) -before shared based payments- in FY25.

Speculative Hold rating. The broker's 15c target is maintained after higher revenue forecasts are offset by lower peer group multiples.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.025
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley revisits the large four banks and envisages an opportunity for a re-pricing of deposits if the RBA cuts rates in 2025 which could offer some upside to margins.

The analyst stresses the 4 point price-to-earnings re-rating since last 2023, suggests the positive impacts of rate cuts are already discounted in the share prices, as well as a "soft-landing" and reduced competition.

The order of preference for the banks is National Australia Bank, Westpac, ANZ Bank, and CommBank.

Morgan Stanley revises EPS and dividend forecasts to account for the potential deposit re-pricing.

The CommBank target price is raised to $102 from $94 target and the Underweight rating maintained. Sector view is In-Line. 

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $134.90 Difference: minus $32.9 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $96.69, suggesting downside of -28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CCR as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes Credit Clear reported a "solid" June quarter with an upgrade in FY24 EBITDA guidance to $4.0m from $3.8m, driven by the acquisition of two more tier-1 clients.

Accordingly, the broker lifts its FY25 and FY26 EBITDA forecasts by approximately 10%, reflecting continued market share gains and a solid balance sheet.

The outlook for FY25 remains supportive of the debt collection industry, the broker highlights, as cost pressures persist alongside good employment levels.

The target price raises to 44c from 40c with an unchanged Buy rating. High risk.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.14
If CCR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CWP as Buy (1) -

After a new analyst takes over coverage of Perth-based residential property developer Cedar Woods Properties at Bell Potter, the target rises to $5.75 from $5.30 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Despite consistent strong margins on development, the company is trading at a -6% discount to net tangible assets (NTA), highlights the analyst, who is confident in the medium-term outlook.

Management continues to restock the pipeline ahead-of-cycle on good terms (i.e a 26% development margin), points out Bell Potter.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.88
If CWP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes BHP MAC production for 2H24 was 63.5Mwmt, below the 70Mwmt expected, with sales of 59.9Mdmt falling -8% below the broker's estimate and -4% below consensus.

This resulted in total revenue of $121.6m for 2H24, -15% below expectations and -8% below consensus forecasts for Deterra Royalties.

Morgan Stanley states all else being equal there should be an impact on the dividend, but as yet no changes to forecasts.

The effective date for the Trident acquisition is expected to be 2 September 2024.

The $3.70 target price and Equal-weight rating are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Cash burn of -US$10.3m within EBR Systems' 2Q cashflow report aligned with Morgans forecast. The number largely reflected higher administration costs, research and development (R&D) and interest expense, partially offset by lower manufacturing expenditures.

The company has enough capital to get to potential US approval for the WiSE Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) System and beyond, suggest the analysts.

No changes are made to the broker's forecasts. The Speculative Buy rating and $1.57 target are retained.

Target price is $1.57 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.465
If EBR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -

In yet another setback for Fletcher Building, the company is experiencing operational issues at the Golden Bay cement business, due to mechanical problems with a third-party provider's ship.

Management notes this could impact negatively on FY25 earnings by -NZ$10m to -NZ$30m, and the broker highlights there are downside risks to consensus forecasts.

The Morgan Stanley FY25 earnings before tax and interest forecast sits -11% below consensus and net profit is -19% below the market.

The company's FY24 result is due on August 21.

The Equal-weight rating and $2.84 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.01
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Fineos Corp's June quarter cash receipts advanced 25% year-over-year due to new contract wins and renewals, resulting in positive free cash flow of EUR4.1m and net cash of EUR34.2m, up EUR4.3m from March 2024.

The broker highlights key client projects, Guardian and New York Life which are on track, and several contract wins in North America and A&NZ. Two clients terminating their use of the company's products are expected to impact churn in 2H24.

Management retain FY24 revenue guidance  EUR131m-135m revenue, with no changes to earnings forecasts.

Outperform rating and $2.22 target price unchanged.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.54
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

IGO, earlier today, pre-released FY24 financials with FY25 outlook guidance and Citi analysts, in a quick response, believe higher capex and the outlook for nickel (Nova) are both disappointing.

The company has announced there will be a new strategy announcement to come with the actual results release on August 29th.

Nickel exploration is incurring a non-cash impairment of -$275-295m.

Neutral. Target $6.80.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.67 Difference: $1.13
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Speculative Buy (1) -

ikeGPS Group has been awarded a contract to support delivery of a three-year fibre and grid resiliency program for a large utility in south-western North America, explains Bell Potter.

The company has now won NZ$31m in total contract value over the last six-to-nine months, highlights the broker.

The analysts' target rises to 94c from 63c solely due to a change in valuation methodology. It's noted the company's risk profile is reducing for a number of reasons including improved revenue visibility and momentum around contract wins/platform uptake.

Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.24
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans key focus within the 4Q cashlow report for ImpediMed was on growth of the US installed base. It's felt sales momentum is
starting to build with the base adding 23 units versus 13 in Q3.

The company sold 68 units in FY24, and the broker now forecasts 200 for FY25.

Management guidance is for FY25 operating cash expenditure to be -10% lower than FY24, mainly as a net result of adjustments to
headcount and salaries, explain the analysts.

The Speculative Buy rating and 20c target are retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.136
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 213% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Management at Karoon Energy provided an updated capital management policy while presenting 2Q operational results. Production was in line with Morgans forecasts while quarterly revenue was considered "strong".

The broker anticipates an around 10% capital return in 2024 from a combination of dividends and buybacks after management allocates between 20-40% of underlying NPAT.

The Add rating and $2.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.765
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 32.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Citi takes action on yesterday's pre-released FY24 results, cutting its target price to $4.15 from $4.80, citing persistent strong competition, and the broker considers FY25 consensus to be optimistic.

The broker observes product revenue returned to growth in Q4 (+7%) while Kogan First's gross sales rebounded in Q4; subscriber numbers took another leg up, but the broker doubts it is enough to turn the dial for Kogan, given June-half gross sales were -35% below the December half.

The broker reports Web traffic for Kogan declined by -26% in July thus far, a sign of competitive pressure from Amazon, eBay and Temu.

Citi retains its Sell rating noting stiff competition from global giants are threatening domestic online businesses.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 63.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

UBS views the Kogan.com 4Q24 update as mixed, with its product sales reporting 7% growth, year-on-year due to higher quality inventory and easier annual sales comparisons.

The FY24 EBITDA was above the broker's expectations at $40m and operating expenses were controlled.

On the negative side, UBS pointed to marketplace sales which remain negative, and active customer numbers are declining, while Kogan First membership growth may slow in FY25, with higher churn risk following a recent 30% fee increase.

The analyst makes minor EPS forecast adjustments of 3% and -3% for FY24 and FY25, respectively.

Neutral rating and $6 target unchanged.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $1.69
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 63.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LIC as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Bell Potter sees a tough path ahead for Lifestyle Communities following the recent capital raising, settlement downgrade, negative press coverage and subsequent removal of forward-looking guidance.

The broker feels the latter two points above may take some time to play out and they bring the deferred management fee (DMF) exit model into question.

Also, the analyst fears recent high land acquisition costs may result in a slower future sales rate given the price point or loss-making development margins.

Bell Potter initiates coverage with a Sell rating and $8.95 target price.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If LIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.53, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Speculative Buy (1) -

The Kathleen Valley project is now 99%-complete, notes Bell Potter, and Liontown Resources is set to commence spodumene concentrate production soon.

The broker reiterates the project has a long mine life and is located in a tier-one location. Also, offtake contracts have been executed with top tier electric vehicle and battery original equipment manufacturers. 

Speculative Buy rating. The target rises to $1.90 from $1.85. 

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.95
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes Liontown Resources invested -$191.5m on development at the Kathleen Valley project during 4Q24, which is now around 95% complete with the processing plant construction at 99%.

The broker highlights the company has stockpiles of 285kt ready for processing and Liontown Resources finished the quarter with $122.9m in cash, receiving an additional US$250m from LG Energy Solution post-quarter.

Underground development is ramping up with significant progress by contractor Byrnecut and the first concentrate is expected by 1Q25.

Macquarie lifts the FY24 EPS forecast by 8% and maintains the target price at $1.00 with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.05
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAP as Speculative Buy (1) -

A 4Q update by Microba Life Sciences was in line with Bell Potter's forecasts. Excluding the revenue contribution from Invivo (acquired December 2023), FY24 revenue increased by 33% compared to FY23.

The MetaXplore roll out in Australia continues to show strong growth, while the next avenue of growth is a UK launch in FY25 via the Invivo network of clinicians, explain the analysts.

The company's second diagnostic test, MetaPanel, is also generating impressive real-world clinical data, according to the broker, showing detection of otherwise undetected pathogens.

Speculative Buy and 35c target retained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.16
If MAP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reflects on the total IVF cycles which increased by 9.4% year-over-year in June 2024, with fresh cycles up 7.4% and frozen cycles up 12.3%.

The recent addition of carrier screening to the Medicare Benefits Schedule in November 2023, with about 60,000 tests to date, is expected to drive significant incremental IVF volume for Monash IVF.

Market share gains are anticipated by the broker supported by specialist recruitment and the acquisition of Fertility North, which is expected to add eight new specialists.

Outperform rating and $1.55 target remain with no changes to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.205
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley revisits the large four banks and envisages an opportunity for a re-pricing of deposits if the RBA cuts rates in 2025 which could offer some upside to margins.

The analyst stresses the 4 point price-to-earnings re-rating since last 2023, suggests the positive impacts of rate cuts are already discounted in the share prices, as well as a "soft-landing" and reduced competition.

The order of preference for the banks is National Australia Bank, Westpac, ANZ Group, and CommBank.

Morgan Stanley revises EPS and dividend forecasts to account for the potential deposit re-pricing.

The National Australia Bank target price is raised to $34.20 from $32.50. Equal-weight unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $34.20 Current Price is $37.90 Difference: minus $3.7 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.86, suggesting downside of -18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi is pulling back on its strong bull call on copper as China's economic malaise looks to continue amid a broader pullback in AI and semiconductor stocks, softer manufacturing indicies and physical copper prices.

While considering consumer buying strong enough to provide a solid floor, a rally comes down to timing and the broker pushes out its recovery forecasts to early 2025 when it expects Fed rate cuts will revive global manufacturing.

The broker cuts Rio Tinto's FY25/FY26 earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -5% and -3%. EPS and DPS estimates also fall.

Neutral rating and $137 target price retained.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $115.87 Difference: $21.13
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.25, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie previews the 1H2024 earnings report for Rio Tinto, with earnings expected to be flat, and EBITDA forecast at US$12.2bn and underlying earnings at US$6.1bn, which is 5% higher than consensus.

The broker expects an interim dividend of US$1.88 per share, assuming a 50% payout ratio and is 4% above consensus.

Investors are anticipated to focus on copper and lithium, with lower iron ore at the EBITDA level to be offset by aluminium and copper, both boosted by higher prices.

Macquarie tweaks the EPS forecasts by less than -2%, and higher capital expenditure in 1H2024 is expected to impact free cash flow.

Neutral rating and $118 target maintained.

Target price is $118.00 Current Price is $115.87 Difference: $2.13
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.25, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

Ramelius Resources reported 4Q24 operating results. Macquarie notes 82.1koz of gold production is in line with guidance, but all-in sustaining costs came in 10% higher than expected and 5% above consensus.

The company boosted $137m in cash and bullion, closing the quarter with $447m.

Management guided to FY25 gold production of  270-300koz and costs of $1,500-$1,700/oz with the closure of Edna May confirmed for FY25. The upcoming Rebecca district study is expected in 2Q25.

Macquarie adjusts EPS estimates for FY24 by -3%, with a -24% reduction for FY25 due to higher depreciation and amortisation.

Outperform rating and $2.10 target remain.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.195
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the FY24 gold production for Ramelius Resources of 293koz is better than the analyst's forecast and the all-in-sustaining costs were lower than expected, post the release of the 4Q24 production report.

Management offered FY25 guidance as observed by the broker of 270koz-300koz and costs of $1,500oz-$1,700oz with a cash balance of $446,6m at June end.

The analyst points to management's reference to the Stage 3 cut back at Edna May as not economically viable to warrant the forecast -$300m investment.

Buy rating. High risk. Target price of $2.73, unchanged.

Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.825
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Add (1) -

Beating prior guidance by 6%, Regal Partners has delivered 1H performance fees of $59m, reflecting six months of very strong performance across a range of equity strategies, notes Morgans.

In line with the broker's expectations, funds under management (FUM) as at July 3 increased to $12.2bn, with proforma FUM of $16.5bn, which includes the acquisition of Merricks and the company's 40% stake in Argyle Group.

The Add rating and $4.70 target are maintained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.95
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -

While Regis Resources' June quarter report was in line with Bell Potter's forecasts, management's FY25 guidance disappointed.

Guidance included cost increases versus FY24 actuals, as well as an overall 19% increase in growth capital/exploration/McPhillamys project expenditure, explains the broker.

As the analysts were anticipating an overall decrease in operating and capital costs (in absolute dollar terms) would drive increased free cash flow in FY25, the target is slashed to $2.15 from $2.70. Buy.

FY24-26 EPS forecasts fall by -26%, -50% and -50%, respectively, as Bell Potter increases its depreciation charge forecast for FY24 and applies higher costs and lower production forecasts to FY25 and FY26.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.465
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Resolute Mining produced 90.8koz of gold, some 4% better than the Macquarie analyst's expectations and 12% higher than consensus, driven by strong performance at Syama Sulphides.

All-in-sustaining costs were higher than expected at US$1,402/oz and management has retained 2024 guidance of 345-365koz and costs of US$1,300-US$1,400/oz, with expectations of stronger 2H2024 from better grades at Mako and incremental improvements at Syama.

The net cash position improved to US$54.7m which was above than the broker's forecast by US$15m. Macquarie adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024 by -9% due to higher operating expenses.

The target price is raised to 75c from 70c with an Outperform rating.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.125
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Citi is pulling back on its strong bull call on copper as China's economic malaise looks to continue amid a broader pullback in AI and semiconductor stocks, softer manufacturing indicies and physical copper prices.

While considering consumer buying strong enough to provide a solid floor, a rally comes down to timing and the broker pushes out its recovery forecasts to early 2025 when it expects Fed rate cuts will revive global manufacturing.

The broker cuts South32's FY25/FY26 earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -3%. 

Buy rating and $3.35 target price retained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.33
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.71, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Stanmore Resources' June-quarter coal production outpaced Citi's forecasts by 7% and coal sales by 11%, albeit sales comprised more PCI and thermal than the broker estimated. 2024 production guidance was retained.

Management announced it would to stop mining at the Mavis Underground project given its short mine life and current market conditions (high costs) make it uneconomic.

The company closed June 30 with net cash of US$192m. Tax of US$170m was paid in June. EPS forecasts fall for 2024 and 2025 and the broker forecasts a 7.2% dividend yield in 2026.

Buy rating and $3.95 target price retained.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.17
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Viva Energy reported 1H EBITDA guidance of $445-455m which was -3% below Macquarie estimates due to lower Convenience & Mobility (C&M) contribution and Geelong volumes.

The analyst believes the C&M segment is facing headwinds from consumer softness and illicit tobacco effects, while store upgrades and the quick service restaurant integrations progress.

Commercial & Industrial volumes grew 8.7% year-on-year and the 2Q refining margin was in line with expectations, with a positive outlook for 2H as Geelong operations normalise.

Macquarie cuts the FY24 EPS forecast by -7% for 2024 due to lower C&M volumes and the lower shop contribution.

The target price is revised to $4.25, down -3.4%. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $1.01
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

The June 2024 quarter update from Viva Energy is expected to illicit a "muted" reaction from investors, the Morgan Stanley analyst highlights.

The group reported -10% lower than the broker's expected EBITDA forecast but in line with consensus, and the Geelong refining margin exceeded Ampol's ((ALD)) refining margin.

Fuel sales volumes grew by 5.7% year-on-year, driven by strong demand from aviation, agriculture, and defense contracts, while convenience sales and fuel sales saw a slight decline of -1% on the year, impacted by high oil prices and cost of living pressures

The Equal-weight rating and $3.64 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.64 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.4
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy reported unaudited 1H24 EBITDA of $445-455m which was slightly below consensus expectations UBS notes, while pressures on convenience sales, down -11% and fuel volumes, down -1% were offset by strong commercial volumes, up 9%.

The broker anticipates cost efficiencies and a recovery in the macro environment are expected to drive future growth, with a projected 20% compound average growth rate in EBITDA from 2023 to 2027.

UBS adjusts EPS estimates for 2024 by -7% to reflect a more conservative outlook on convenience sales and fuel volumes.

The target price is lowered to $3.55 from $3.65 with a Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.31
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley revisits the large four banks and envisages an opportunity for a re-pricing of deposits if the RBA cuts rates in 2025 which could offer some upside to margins.

The analyst stresses the 4 point price-to-earnings re-rating since last 2023, suggests the positive impacts of rate cuts are already discounted in the share prices, as well as a "soft-landing" and reduced competition.

The order of preference for the banks is National Australia Bank, Westpac, ANZ Group, and Commonwealth Bank.

Morgan Stanley revises EPS and dividend forecasts to account for the potential deposit re-pricing.

The Westpac target price is raised to $25.60 from $24.50. Underweight rating unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $25.60 Current Price is $28.99 Difference: minus $3.39 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.58, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

In further research on Woodside Energy's decision to acquire US-based Tellurian at book value for roughly -US$900m in cash, Citi expects Driftwood will be contractionary to the company's multiple given scarce capital has better options.

All up, Driftwood is "replacing first quartile production with middle of the cost-curve production", suggesting Woodside Energy is becoming a global marginal producer, making it susceptible to shocks, observes the broker.

Without competitive strengths to promote vertical integration, Citi considers the company to be between a rock and a hard place in terms of options.

EPS forecasts rise for 2024 and fall for 2025. Neutral rating and $28 target price retained.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $27.14 Difference: $0.86
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.08, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources