Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ABY as Overweight (1) -

In the first quarter of FY22, Adore Beauty Group has grown revenue 25% to $64m and grown active customers 24%. Returning customers were up 63% while new customers increased 1%. 

Morgan Stanley expects upgrades to the full-year revenue growth guidance of 17% and that growth will remain elevated through the year despite a reduced online benefit linked to lockdowns. 

The Overweight rating and $6.00 target price are retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1
If ABY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABY as Buy (1) -

First quarter year-on-year revenue growth of 25% was broadly in-line with the expectation of UBS, and is expected to provide the market with increased confidence in FY22 sales forecasts. The latter is estimated to imply 12% revenue growth for the remainder of the year.

The analyst notes customer growth may derive from the new app, the loyalty program and the company's first private label brand launch in the third quarter. The Buy rating and $6 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1
If ABY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

After a further review of the takeover proposal for AusNet Services ((AST)), Morgans fails to see the value accretion opportunity and downgrades its rating to Hold from Add. The target price is lowered to $8.71 from $10.13.

The analyst points out that over the last five years, AusNet Services has invested over -$4bn of capital and delivered minor earnings and cashflow growth. The next step in the takeover process is the Takeovers Panel’s ruling on the group's access to due diligence.

Target price is $8.71 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: $0.08
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi upgrades its rating for ARB Corp to Buy from Neutral, following both a first quarter update and an -11% share price decline since the August peak. The update revealed better-than-expected profit momentum, despite lockdowns in NSW and Victoria.

The target rises to $55.45 from $48.80. The broker sees both a big US opportunity from more (significant proportion driving) vacations, and the potential for Australian sales to accelerate over the second quarter after lockdowns.

Citi lifts long-term export and US earnings forecasts to allow for gains in the US, benefits from the Ford partnership and an expansion of Thai manufacturing facilities.

Target price is $55.45 Current Price is $47.79 Difference: $7.66
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.07, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARB as Overweight (1) -

Based on recent commentary from ARB Corporation, Morgan Stanley understands the company is set to report half on half growth on what was a record second half of FY21, to cycle the largest half in its history.

The broker notes results are despite headwinds in logistics, freight and raw materials, and domestic lockdown. Further, a strong order book should place the company in a strong position for the remainder of FY22.

The Overweight rating and target price of $56 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $47.79 Difference: $8.21
If ARB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.07, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett views ARB Corp's first quarter results as strong, reporting sales and earnings growth. The broker notes results have been driven by increased new vehicle sales, cycling off a weaker first quarter in FY21 and contributions from the Truckman acquisition. 

Given demand, the company is also expanding manufacturing facilities in Thailand, with continuing appreciation of the Australian Dollar to the Thai Baht benefiting gross profit margins. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $48.00 from $47.49.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $47.79 Difference: $0.21
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.07, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AST as Hold (3) -

While making a number of adjustments to its financial model for AusNet Services, Citi maintains its Hold rating, with both Brookfield and APA Group ((APA)) bidding for the business.

The target price of $2.50 is retained, which is in-line with the all-cash offer.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.02
If AST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting downside of -18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

The broker's review of September quarter premium rate data show a 6.1% increase for AUB Group, following gains of 5%, 4% and 3.5% moving back through the prior three quarters. This despite cycling four years of positive comparables.

In such a supportive environment, the broker retains Outperform and a $25.52 target.

Target price is $25.52 Current Price is $22.98 Difference: $2.54
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.67, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CKF as Outperform (1) -

Collins Foods held an investor day yesterday but did not provide a trading update, in the wake of its new deal with Yum to take over the second largest KFC franchise in the Netherlands, taking its market share to 55%.

Nevertheless, the investor day provided a positive read-through into the longer-term growth prospects for the business across Netherlands and Australia, the broker suggests. Consistent store rollout supports double digit medium term earnings growth.

Outperform retained, target rises to $14.75 from $12.50.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $13.32 Difference: $1.43
If CKF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.93, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CKF as Hold (3) -

At Collins Foods' investor day, Morgans garnered additional news on the Australian and Netherlands strategy. There was also an announcement on the acquistion of 9 KFC stores in the Netherlands.

After transitioning earnings estimates to AASB 16 lease accounting standards, and taking into account the acquisition and a faster rate of store rollout in Europe, the analyst raises its target to $14.20 from $12.82. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.32 Difference: $0.88
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.93, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Collins Foods has entered an agreement to purchase nine KFC restaurants in the Netherlands, increasing the company's network to 44 from 35 in that country.

The Neutral rating and $12.85 target price are unchanged. The broker estimates the transaction is around 1% EPS accretive, assuming a full recovery to FY19 earnings in FY23. UBS concludes the business is well-placed for growth over the next 12-24 months.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $13.32 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.93, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNU as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades the rating for Chorus to Neutral from Sell after recent share price underperformance and a low probability the Commerce Commission will lower its regulated asset base (RAB) estimate in December.

Moreover, higher dividends are estimated for the long term. The target price moves up to NZ$6.35 from NZ$6.30.

Current Price is $6.02. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Like-for-like sales continued to grow for Domino’s UK in the third quarter (September ending) and Citi expects this to continue as 
markets re-open. It's thought this strong cycling of comparatives is encouraging for the broader Dominos global franchise.

The broker retains its Neutral rating and $148.70 target price.

Target price is $148.70 Current Price is $139.44 Difference: $9.26
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.00, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ELD as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects Elders will beat consensus forecasts when releasing FY21 results on November 15. While the broker upgrades its earnings (EBIT) forecasts for higher livestock prices, a larger winter crop and acquisitions, FY22/23 profit estimates fall materially on adjusted tax rates.

The Hold rating is unchanged on valuation and recognition that cattle prices will likely fall from current elevated levels. The analyst forecasts FY21 sales will increase by 12.7% and underlying earnings will rise by 29.4% to $156m.

Morgans lifts its target price to $12.10 from $11.95.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $12.32 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If ELD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDF as Add (1) -

Garda Property Group's portfolio value has increased by 14% as a result of updated revaluations as at October 2021. Morgans believes there is also potential medium-term earnings and net tangible assets (NTA) upside, after the group updated on the development pipeline.

The broker lifts its target price to $1.71 from $1.47 and retains its Add rating. Expected guidance for FY22 funds from operations (FFO) is 8-8.5cps.

Target price is $1.71 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.18
If GDF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Hub24's first quarter flows of $3.0bn were a beat on Credit Suisse's forecast $2.5bn, while also contributing to a 2% funds under administration beat. The broker notes that with no identifiable large transitions in the period, first quarter levels can be seen as sustainable.

Credit Suisse notes Hub24's full-year funds under administration target of $63-70bn could prove conservative, and the broker notes potential upside to its own funds under administration forecast of $73bn.

Net flow forecasts upgraded $12-14bn per annum through to FY25, and earnings per share estimates upgraded 4-7% for the same period.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $36.50 from $34.00.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $31.25 Difference: $5.25
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.94, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24 reported net inflows of $3.0bn in the September quarter, well ahead of expectations, and a $4.5bn increase in funds under management. However while flows continue to support an elevated PE multiple, the broker sits -10% below consensus on its profit forecast.

The broker sees upside risk in flow momentum but downside from rising yields, weaker equities and an inability to recoup cash spreads. Target rises to $29.00 from $26.50, Neutral retained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $31.25 Difference: minus $2.25 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.94, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Add (1) -

Hub24 beat Morgans expectations for first quarter flows. The broker maintains its Add rating, based upon potential delivery of operating leverage in the medium-term from growing scale. The target price rises to $34.20 from $31.65.

The company delivered a record $3bn in net inflows, up 37% on the previous quarter, which was a 7% beat on the analyst's forecast.

Target price is $34.20 Current Price is $31.25 Difference: $2.95
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.94, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Accumulate (2) -

Hub24 has reported strong first quarter results, with net platform flows of $3.0bn and funds under administration up 9.5%. The broker notes flows skewed to the higher-margin retail channel, with retail now representing 82% of Hub24's funds under administration. 

According to the broker, this update marks a quarterly net flow record for Hub24. The company has not updated full year funds under administration guidance, still pointing to a $63-70bn guidance by end of FY22.

Ord Minnett updates earnings per share forecasts 3-6%. The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price increases to $33.00 from $30.00. 

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.25 Difference: $1.75
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.94, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Accumulate (2) -

Given its failure to honour discount promises made to customers, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission has announced it will launch civil proceedings against Insurance Australia Group.

According to ASIC, 59,000 customers were impacted by Insurance Australia Group's failure to apply discounts. Ord Minnett notes the insurer appears to have provisioned for costs with -$238m and -$246m charges in FY21 and FY20 respectively.

The broker does not expect significant profit and loss impact, but does note there may be near-term share price weakness. 

The Accumulate rating and $5.35 target price are retained.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $0.27
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy after the broker was surprised by only a marginal share price lift after the recent second business insurance (BI) test-case win. Also, an expected medium-term improvement in underlying margin has not materialised. 

Moreover, the analyst is concerned over the prospect for increased regulatory scrutiny. The target price falls to $5.35 from $5.65.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $0.27
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IME as Add (1) -

In acquiring the Columbian-based teleradiology services provider RIMAB, Morgans believes a reasonable price was paid for a stable and profitable business. It's also thought to provide up-sell opportunities to the existing customer base and for new client wins.

The broker retains its Speculative Buy rating, and sees the stock as materially undervalued. The target price rises to $2.55 from $2.48.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $1.22
If IME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

In expectation of improved sales in AN&Z upon store reopenings, Citi upgrades its rating to Buy from Neutral. The broker advances other positives including potential M&A and the marketplace strategy, which should allow entering and testing new markets with low capital risk.

While first quarter sales were below the analyst's expectation, gross margins improved by 100bps-200bps across all markets. It's thought this validates the company's growth initiatives.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has lifted its price target to $240 (not a typo) from $175 prior following another deep-dive analysis of what drives the outlook for Macquarie Group.

The title above today's report -Powered by Green Energy- gives away the clue. In the broker's view, Macquarie is now a vertically integrated private markets asset manager and developer, with potentially the best green capabilities among financials globally.

As Macquarie remains poised for faster growth in comparison with peers, a premium seems but justified.

Rating: Overweight (of course). Industry view in-line.

Target price is $240.00 Current Price is $182.87 Difference: $57.13
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.82, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

It is Credit Suisse's view that Newcrest Mining's gold production profile could increase 20% over the next decade driven by its Lihir and Red Chris projects, with all-in sustaining costs falling to around US$300 per ounce. 

Newcrest Mining continues to view Red Chris as a potential Tier 1 underground asset, and Credit Suisse notes while the project is yet to screen as Tier 1 it still offers a compelling 20% internal rate of return. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.00 from $28.35.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $24.73 Difference: $7.27
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.74, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

After a first quarter update, Citi sees upgraded flow guidance as conservative though maintains its Neutral rating on valuation grounds. Net flows of $4bn were 61% above the broker's estimate (included a one-off contribution of $0.9 bn). The target rises to $15.95 from $15.40.

The analyst believes the update points to an accelerating flow environment and upgrades FY22-FY24 profit estimates by 1%-5%.

Target price is $15.95 Current Price is $16.52 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Outperform (1) -

Following better-than-expected first quarter flows, Netwealth Group updated FY22 flow guidance to $12.5bn from $10.0bn. The company reported first quarter flows of $4.0bn, ahead of Credit Suisse's forecast $2.4bn, contributing to a 3% funds under administration beat.

The broker notes first quarter figures were aided by $0.9bn in flows into two large accounts, but notes even excluding this the company was ahead of expectations. The broker notes Netwealth has a record of over delivering, and notes potential upside to the new guidance. 

Credit Suisse updates net flow forecasts to $12-13bn per annum between FY22 anf FY25, raising earnings per share forecasts 3-5% over the same period.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $17.80 from $17.00.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $16.52 Difference: $1.28
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Outperform (1) -

Netwealth reported September quarter inflows of $4.0bn and total funds under management of $52.0bn. Net flow guidance for FY22 was increased to $12.5bn from $10.0bn, but the broker is forecasting $13.0bn.

Strong flow momentum continues to support the broker's investment thesis and the competitive pricing environment is likely to remain benign for now. Risks include rising yields, weaker equities and the inability to recoup cash spreads.

Outperform retained, target rises to $19.00 from $17.75.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.52 Difference: $2.48
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Netwealth Group beat Morgans expectations for first quarter flows. The broker maintains its Hold rating on valuation and raises its target price to $17.60 from $16.20. The strong industry position, high cash generation and industry tailwind are considered attractive.

The group ended the quarter with $52bn in funds under administration (FUA), up 10.2% on the prior quarter. Management upgraded net inflow guidance to $12.5bn for FY22 from $10bn.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $16.52 Difference: $1.08
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes better than expected net flows and funds under administration from Netwealth Group in the first quarter of FY22. The company reported net flows of $4.0bn, compared to the broker's forecast $2.9bn, but noted normalised net flows of $3.1bn. 

Funds under administration were also up 10.2% in the quarter. With the company updating FY22 net flow guidance to $12.5bn from $10.0bn, Ord Minnett increases earnings per share forecasts by 3-5%.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $19.50 from $17.50.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $16.52 Difference: $2.98
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OSH as Buy (1) -

UBS had already lifted its Brent oil price forecast for 2021 to US$67.5/bbl from US$65.8/bbl, and for 2022 to US$68.5/bbl from US$62/bbl.

Now, with the global LNG market tightly balanced, UBS sees strong spot gas prices -record highs in Asia- as a reflection of unmet demand in the market.

Another look at the sector in Australia has the broker expressing a preference for Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) and Santos ((STO)).

For Oil Search, the target has increased to $5 from $4.85 on higher forecasts. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.46
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RBL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Redbubble's first quarter results were in line with company guidance for negative year-on-year growth in the first half. The company reported a gross profit decrease of -34% and underlying earnings decease of -85% in what was a tough comparative quarter. 

The broker highlights underlying momentum improved through the quarter, and is confident in Redbubble's ability to sustain 20-30% medium-term growth. 

The Overweight rating and target price are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $2.51
If RBL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RBL as Add (1) -

Redbubble's first quarter top-line result was -3.5% below Morgans forecast, though cycling the previous corresponding period's lockdown tailwinds and mask sales was always considered tough.

The Add rating is retained, due to the negative share price response to the result.

The target price rises marginally to $4.84 from $4.83. The analyst concedes more evidence is necessary regarding any improvements to customer loyalty. Nonetheless, it's thought ‘peak cycle risk’ has passed, given the company's international exposure.

Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.85
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

After an initial glance at today's third quarter production report, Macquarie assesses an in-line to slightly weaker quarter. Overshadowing this, in the broker's view, management proceeded to downgrade 2021 production guidance for iron ore, bauxite and copper.

Having said that, the analyst had expected the downgrades, and current forecasts largely reflect the reduced volume guidance ranges. It's thought free cash flow yields at spot prices of 18% for 2021,and 15% from 2022 onwards, are attractive.

The Outperform rating is unchanged and the target price is set at $148.

Target price is $148.00 Current Price is $100.51 Difference: $47.49
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.29, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

In an initial take on today's September quarter production update by Rio Tinto, Ord Minnett assesses iron ore shipments were in-line, while copper and aluminium missed by -5% and -6%.

Management lowered iron ore guidance to 320-325Mt from 325-320Mt, while copper guidance fell to 190-210kt from 210-250kt. Despite being underwhelmed by the update, the broker likes the current valuation and free cash flow yield.

As expected by the analyst, the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up has been officially delayed. While it's thought lower guidance may weigh on consensus earnings forecasts, the Buy rating and $144 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $144.00 Current Price is $100.51 Difference: $43.49
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.29, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 has entered into two binding conditional agreements to acquire a 45% interest in the Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile for an upfront cash consideration of -US$1.55bn. The Buy rating and $4.30 target price are maintained.

South32 estimates the open pit mine will produce 180kt of copper, 5kt of molybdenum, 54koz of gold and 1.6Moz of silver in 2021. Citi notes the transaction provides the company with joint control alongside 55% joint venture partner KGHM.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.47
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 will acquire 45% of the Sierra Gorda copper project in Chile. The broker does not yet include the acquisition in its model but does believe the deal to be value accretive.

The company is enjoying strong earnings upside momentum on the back of favourably positioned commodity exposure, and is the broker's preferred pick in the sector.

Outperform and $5.00 target retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $1.17
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32 has confirmed its bid to acquire a 45% stake in the Sierra Gorda project for -US$1.55bn cash as well as a copper price-based mechanism. 

Morgan Stanley notes the deal is better structured than initially thought, with the copper mechanism allowing for some de-risking of the investment and having gone through a more than nine month scrutiny period to assess value. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $4.20 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.37
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 will acquire a 45% stake of the Sierra Gorda copper mine. The transaction will comprise a -US$1.55bn upfront payment, US$150m net debt and up to an additional US$500m in contingent payments, representing an estimated total acquisition cost of -US$1.82bn.

Ord Minnett notes its net present value of the asset is US$2.04bn, making the transaction seemingly accretive. Given the company's net cash position, the broker expects the deal to require debt funding of US$1.7bn.

The broker considers the acquisition strategically positive. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.90 from $3.83.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.07
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 has entered a binding agreement to acquire a 45% non-operating stake in Sierra Gorda in Chile, paying -US$1.55bn upfront. UBS estimates South32 is currently generating around US$3bn of free cash flow at spot prices.

Up to -$500m in contingent consideration is to be paid from 2022-25 if copper prices and production exceed certain thresholds. The analyst highlights the transaction is expected to be earnings accretive immediately, and to complete by the end of 2021.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.27
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

The broker's review of September quarter premium rate data show a 6.1% increase for Steadfast Group. This is a step down from the prior quarter's 6.3%, but premium rate growth remains positive despite cycling four years of positive comparables.

As the premium rate environment remains supportive, the broker retains Outperform and a $5.30, with the next catalyst being news from the AGM.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $0.42
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SYR as Neutral (3) -

It is Credit Suisse's view that Syrah Resources offers significant potential upside from derisking catalysts over the next year. The broker noted the Vadalia processing plant as a near-term catalyst that could enable market expansion and better pricing power. 

A final investment decision on an initial 10,000 tonnes per annum capacity at Vadalia could see the market derisk the plant and future expansion opportunity. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.15 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.04
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

The broker upgrades forecasts for Tabcorp Holdings following better than expected lottery sales in the September quarter and an earlier reopening of businesses than previously assumed.

Valuation discovery on the soon to be demerged Lotteries & Keno business provides for material upside, the broker suggests, and on 11.6x FY23 forecast earnings, valuation looks appealling.

Outperform retained, target rises to $6.55 from $6.45.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $1.29
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiates coverage on Treasury Wine Estates with a Buy rating and $13.50 target price. The broker suggests the reallocation of Penfolds luxury wine is progressing well and costs are falling. Further, the portfolio is now skewing to luxury/premium.

The analyst feels the risk reward is attractive as a broader turnaround is occurring with reopening leverage. Retail pricing is considered to be currently stable though bulk wine prices are falling.

Recent industry data suggests strong momentum at the luxury/premium end of the market, led by the 19 Crimes and Matua brands.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.29 Difference: $1.21
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.40, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse views potential upside to fuel volumes as domestic travel activity is expected to increase in the December and March quarters. The broker notes there is a potential for 20% upside to Viva Energy's fuel volumes through to FY23.

Retail fuel volumes are expected to remain above average. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.58 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.58 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.26
If VEA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

In anticipation of the company's second quarter cash flow report in late October, Morgans feels current revenue guidance of at least NZ$25m for FY22 is conservative. The broker makes no changes to forecasts and retains its Add rating and $1.87 target price.

Based on a recent trading update, the analyst thinks the quarter will be strong, after the largest contract signed to-date and additional work from existing customers.

Target price is $1.87 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.64
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

In an initial assessment, Macquarie considers today's third quarter production was in-line. More positively, gold sales and all-in sustaining costs were estimated to be a 9% and 16% beat, respectively.

The analyst now expects production will exceed the existing 250-280koz guidance range set by management. Macquarie highlights the company paid off $25m in debt during the quarter and another US$28m after quarter-end, and expects this trend to continue.

The Outperform rating and $1.20 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

While September quarter production was in-line with Citi's forecast, lower than expected price realisation sees the broker lower the FY22 profit estimate by -5%. There's thought to be still valuation support after the recent share price rise.

Management guidance is unchanged and the analyst retains a Neutral rating and $3.50 target price.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.27
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Continuing strong delivery from Maules and recovery at Narrabri have driven a solid September quarter performance for Whitehaven Coal. Credit Suisse notes the December quarter may moderate somewhat, but that inventory drawdown will sustain sales.

Whitehaven is now guiding to a positive net cash position by the March quarter, driven by more than $100m per month in free cash flow. On the broker's estimates, this could equate to around $420m net cash by the end of FY22. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.00 from $2.85.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.77
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Production was solid in the September quarter but sales were weaker, although Whitehaven Coal has kept FY22 guidance unchanged. Realised thermal coal prices rose 51% quarter on quarter, and the broker sees further upside ahead.

Were the broker to input current spot prices, Whitehaven would offer a free cash flow yield in excess of 50%.

Outperform retained, target $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.67
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes that significantly better than expected production at both the Maules Creek and Narrabri projects have given Whitehaven Coal a strong start to FY22. Production was 28% and 79% ahead of the broker's forecast respectively.  

Saleable coal production was also a 32% beat on forecast and coal stocks remain high. Further, Morgan Stanley notes with Narrabri moving to shallower ground there will be improved performance predictability. 

The Overweight rating  and target price of $3.80 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.57
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources