Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

The broker has analysed the earnings result of Aristocrat Leisure's US rival SciGames to provide a read-through, which indicated a recovery phase for casinos and land-based gaming.

The conclusion is more potential upside for Aristocrat as a U-shaped recovery appears to be playing out despite the risk of further restrictions given the US second wave. Buy and $34.60 target retained.

Target price is $34.60 Current Price is $31.91 Difference: $2.69
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.89, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to today's quarterly results release by Amcor, Citi analysts point out the bottom line turned out better than consensus, and better than Citi's estimate too.

The analysts highlight the result was carried by strong volume growth in the Americas and APAC, plus margins increased significantly in Flexibles, helped by Bemis synergies.

Further adding to the positive newsflow, Amcor has announced a share buyback and increased its dividend, underlying management’s confidence, comments the broker.

Citi analysts are anticipating modest consensus EPS upgrades post today's update.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $15.44 Difference: $1.66
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.87, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Lighten (4) -

ASX's monthly activity report for August shows better-than-forecast listings and capital raisings versus Ord Minnett's assumptions. Cash market trends were elevated but fell slightly short of the broker's expectations.

Ord Minnett sees FY20 as a peak year for the company's earnings, hinting at earnings pressure in FY21.

Led mainly by suppressed derivative volumes and lower cash market trading, Ord Minnett maintains its Lighten rating. The target is trimmed to $77.28 from $77.91.

Target price is $77.28 Current Price is $81.61 Difference: minus $4.33 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $72.73, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCP as Add (1) -

Credit Corp’s first quarter result was strong overall, according to Morgans, with strong cash collection and a rebound in lending demand.

Compared to the previous corresponding period total collections were up 16%, Aust/NZ collections were up 4% and US collections were up 34%.

The company reaffirmed all guidance metrics, including EPS of 89-112cps, DPS 45-55cps, and profit (NPAT) of $60-75m.

Purchase of debt ledgers (PDL) is tracking reasonably notes the broker, with the return of two Australian sellers.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target is decreased to $21.20 from $21.25.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: $2.05
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.90, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS reviews third quarter results for a range of international peers and suppliers.

Plasma consumables supplier, Haemonetics, reported North America organic plasma revenue down -32.3% versus the previous corresponding period. The broker believes this is a relatively good proxy for collection volumes, albeit with a potential lag. 

Haemonetics noted they have seen an increase in collection volume as they exited September and during October. However, UBS believes with ongoing covid-19 case numbers in the US, raw plasma supply disruption may be evident for an extended period of time.

Other takeaways included the recombinant FIX market remains competitive with Alprolix growing strongly in the US, while HPV royalties are tracking in line with forecast. Also, Sanofi and GSK are both experiencing very strong flu demand in the northern hemisphere.

UBS notes a range of potential mitigations (for current plasma collections and cost pressures) across CSL group that should assist in underpinning (modest) FY21 earnings growth. These include normalised albumin sales in China and a shift to SCIG vs IVIG.

Additionally, the broker sees strong flu vaccine demand. The Buy rating and target price of $346 are unchanged.

Target price is $346.00 Current Price is $301.63 Difference: $44.37
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $309.96, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Looking at Flight Centre's forecast which expects an earlier rebound in the corporate travel segment than in leisure, Morgan Stanley prefers Corporate Travel Management over Webjet ((WEB)).

The broker considers Corporate Travel 's pathway to profitability clearer than Webjet's. Also, the former is less reliant on vaccines and international borders re-openings.

Corporate Travel's Australia and New Zealand business is doing better than Webjet's online travel agency (OTA) business. The broker highlights Corporate Travel's business mix contains a higher proportion of essential services and domestic travel and is more insulated.

Target is $21.50. Overweight rating reiterated. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $16.63 Difference: $4.87
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.36, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Deterra Royalties listed on the ASX on October 23, 2020, after demerging from Iluka Resources ((ILU)). Iluka retained a 20% shareholding in the company.

The company holds six royalty streams, with the Mining Area C (MAC) royalty over BHP Group's ((BHP)) MAC tenements the only active royalty that contributes revenue to the company.

Beginning trading with minimal net debt (around $15m), the strategy is to grow and diversify the royalty portfolio through value accretive investments over time. 

UBS explains the company offers exposure to iron ore without the operating and capital cost exposure, while growth in iron ore volumes from MAC offsets the forecast decline in price.

The broker initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $4.80ps price target.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0.55
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EHE as Neutral (3) -

Estia Health provided a first quarter trading update at its AGM, highlighting to UBS the extent of covid-19 pandemic headwinds.

Key takeaways for the broker included average occupancy of 91.3%, including Victoria at 86.8% and other states at 93.7%. Also, revenue of $159m was considered negatively impacted by weaker occupancy and lower resident revenues in Victoria.

Overall the analyst expects occupancy to recover through FY21 (particularly in Victoria) and expects incremental covid-19 costs to ease from here. The company is considered a quality operator and well placed to emerge from FY21 and the Royal Commission in a stronger position versus peers.

The Neutral rating and target price of $1.55 are unchanged.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.25
If EHE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Flight Centre's revenues are gradually improving, led by corporate travel revenue and limited liquidity drawdown during the September quarter.

Citi expects demand for domestic leisure activities will be high once the Victorian and Queensland borders re-open. Flight Centre expects corporate travel to return to profitability by late FY21, while Leisure is expected to be profitable in FY22.

Preferring to remain cautious given the rising covid-19 cases in the US, Citi retains a Neutral rating with a target of $14.10.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $0.28
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

With ample liquidity, better cost management and a continuing recovery in revenue, Credit Suisse considers Flight Centre's update to be incrementally positive.

With 60% of corporate travel expenditure generated from domestic and regional travel, the broker thinks there is more scope for improvement with easing domestic travel restrictions.

Leisure is likely to take longer to recover given its 70% reliance on international travel. Neutral rating is retained with the target declining slightly to $15.29 from $15.31.

Target price is $15.29 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $1.47
If FLT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Flight Centre's total liquidity at September end of $1.029bn gives the travel agency a liquidity runway to March 2022, estimates Morgan Stanley.

At its AGM, Flight Centre noted improving global activity to 12% in September from 7% in July with the most improvement seen in corporate travel in China and Canada. Leisure improved to 7% from 3%.  

Morgan Stanley assesses Flight Centre to be leveraged to a recovery in global travel. The pathway to this remains uncertain with rising covid cases in Europe and North America.

Looking at the ample liquidity, necessary in these times, Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with a target of $15. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $1.18
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Flight Centre's AGM update implied a modest sales recovery, in-line with UBS, with revenue to September now tracking at around 12% of pre-covid-19 levels.

The broker's forecasts imply group profitability by around the first half FY22.

The analyst highlights the corporate segment was strong with greater than US$500m in new wins during FY21.

Overall, UBS considers uncertainty is high and business risks are elevated (around 50% stores closed). However, the broker believes a strong brand and ample liquidity makes the company well placed to participate in a recovery.

The Buy rating and target price of $14.50 are unchanged.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $0.68
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Goodman Group reiterated FY21 earnings guidance of 9% but Credit Suisse expects growth to be more than 10%.

In the first quarter, the group's work in progress (WIP) increased to $7.3bn, in line with the broker's forecast. The global demand for logistics real estate has prompted the group to expect the WIP to grow to $8.bn in the second half.

Credit Suisse notes when compared to its REIT sector peers in Australia, the group is trading on an elevated earnings multiple.

While attracted to the group's self-funding growth strategy, Credit Suisse reaffirms its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $19.84 from $17.34.

Target price is $19.84 Current Price is $19.63 Difference: $0.21
If GMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Goodman Group's quarterly update notes work in progress at $7.3bn, slightly ahead of the company's guidance of $7bn in the first half. The group expects more to follow in the remainder of the year.

With yields higher than last year, Morgan Stanley feels Goodman Group's focus on strong location seems to be paying off. Occupancy went up to 97.8% from 97.5%.

Overall, the broker is pleased with the update and retains its Overweight rating. Target is $20.90. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $19.63 Difference: $1.27
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses the first-quarter of the Goodman Group was strong. The group's development workbook saw a jump in the quarter, expected to increase further in FY21.

While growth in external assets under management was modest, the broker believes it will accelerate as development completions pick up. 

The company reaffirmed its 9% earnings growth forecast. Ord Minnett considers this forecast too conservative and estimates growth of 12%. Overall, earnings growth is expected to remain strong over FY21-23 driven by a sharp uptick in development volume.

Hold rating is retained with a target of $19.75.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $19.63 Difference: $0.12
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

A first quarter update by Goodman Group shows to UBS stable operating metrics as development work in progress (WIP) grows strongly.

The broker identifies the driver of the growth in WIP is Asia (80% of WIP) and the expectation is that China/HK/Japan are a material driver of the increased WIP.

Development yields at 6.7% are considered by the analyst as very attractive versus transactional capitalisation rates.

The Neutral rating and price target of $17.50 are unchanged.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $19.63 Difference: minus $2.13 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ING as Buy (1) -

Inghams Group noted a recovery in demand during the September quarter. While the company announced a new dividend policy of 60-80% payout, the broker prefers to retain its dividend forecast.

The company saw strong volume growth in the first quarter. The broker notes conditions are improving for Inghams Group and expects feed cost headwinds will fade in the second half.   

The prospect of better than expected earnings growth in FY21 prompts Citi to retain its Buy rating with a target price of $3.70.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.39
If ING meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ING as Equal-weight (3) -

The first quarter saw core poultry volumes up 6.3%, beating Morgan Stanley's forecast by 2%. Further, Inghams Group noted a decrease in inventory levels in the first 17 weeks of FY21.

Morgan Stanley notes there was no update on the group's channel mix and margins. Even so, the broker expects the update will be well received by the market.

Equal-weight rating with a target of $3.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.19
If ING meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ING as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

A recovery in Inghams Group's first quarter core poultry sales volumes was stronger than Morgans expected and has supported a reduction in the group’s inventory build.

While commentary on profitability was limited, the broker expects the first quarter earnings (EBITDA) figure has improved sequentially on the prior quarter. Feed costs are still expected to reduce from the fourth quarter 2021.

Despite a slight accounting induced dividend policy change, the analyst doesn't expect the quantum of the FY21 dividend will change.

Morgans lifts earnings forecasts in FY22 and FY23 by 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. The broker expects earnings to normalise and for it to benefit from a full year of lower grain prices.

The target price is increased to $3.76 from $3.57 and the rating is increased to Add from Hold.

Target price is $3.76 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.45
If ING meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ING as Neutral (3) -

The first quarter update for Inghams Group was strong on volumes and feed commentary, but little colour was provided around revenue, warns UBS. 

The revised dividend policy implies DPS cuts to the broker.

Takeaways for the analyst include recovering volumes, but it's considered this growth has been assisted by inventory clearance.

UBS upgrades FY21-23 EPS forecasts to reflect the stronger volume update, despite the above mentioned concerns around limited pricing (and therefore revenue) disclosures. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $3.30 are unchanged.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group's half-yearly performance, released earlier today, marks a beat on market consensus and on Citi's forecasts, the broker reports in an initial response.

Compositionally, the analysts believe revenues were 4-5% better than expectations, despite a higher than expected loan impairment of -$447m, but with an offset in higher costs.

Coming fresh on top of a solid share price rally, the analysts suggest investors will be looking to commentary for a resumption of deal flow and asset realisations, as well as the deployment of surplus capital.

No concrete guidance was provided. Neutral. Target $125.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $132.45 Difference: minus $7.45 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $128.32, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Upon initial assessment, Macquarie Group's half-yearly update surprised Ord Minnett by some 3%, with the analysts pointing out the result was a slight beat of Macquarie's own guidance.

Quality-wise, however, the analysts believe the result was weaker than anticipated, as performance fees/gains on sale proved above forecast but investment impairments proved lower-than-forecast.

Ord Minnett doesn't seem to mind, pointing out instead its forecasts are near the top of market consensus, implying others might have to lift theirs post today's update.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $132.45 Difference: minus $2.45 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $128.32, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MVF as Add (1) -

Released Medicare data show the first quarter fresh cycles numbers are up 23.4% on the previous corresponding period.

This reflects pent up demand since elective procedures recommenced in late April, highlights Morgans. It also illustrates limitations on overseas travel keeping doctors and patients at home.

The broker's channel checks suggest the expectations are for growth in cycle numbers to continue through to Christmas. It's considered first half results due in February 2021 will be strong.

Morgans makes no changes to forecasts. The Add rating and target price of $0.65 are unchanged.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.03
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Buy (1) -

National Bank's result missed the broker due to a surprisingly large top-up of loan loss provisions. However, it appears the bank has pulled forward virus-related provisions into the current year, providing for the most conservative stance among peers.

The broker has thus lowered its FY21/22 loan-loss expense forecasts and also lowered risk assumptions given improving credit quality. NAB remains one of the better performers in the sector, the broker believes, on relative revenue growth and sound cost control.

Buy and $23.50 target retained. NAB is the broker's top pick

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $4.19
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

National Australia Bank's FY20 result showed a strong capital position with the CET1 ratio at 11.8%, observes Credit Suisse.

The broker likes the bank's margin management and provision build-up. On the flip side, negative loan growth and a subdued credit growth outlook disappointed the broker. 

Post the FY20 result, Credit Suisse has upgraded its FY21-22 earnings forecasts. The broker finds the bank's loan growth expectations conservative and expects growth of 3% in FY21.

Outperform retained along with the target rising to $22 from $21.30.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $2.69
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

National Australia Bank's underlying cash profit was about -19% below Morgan Stanley's forecast in the second half. Revenue and expenses were weaker than expected. Total loans fell -3.5%.

Loan losses were -$1,601m, higher than expected, and comprised a covid-19 overlay of -$1,028m. A dividend of 30c was declared, in-line with the broker. The bank expects subdued loan growth in FY21 with slightly higher costs.

While Morgan Stanley believes in the bank's strategy and execution, a challenging operating environment makes growth difficult. Believing the risks are skewed to the downside, the broker reduces its earnings forecasts by circa -3-4% for FY21-22. 

Equal-weight rating. Target is $17.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: minus $1.81 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The FY20 cash earnings (from continuing operations) for National Australia Bank were two percent less than Morgans expected, largely due to a higher-than-expected credit impairment charge.

The charge was higher because the bank significantly bolstered its collective provision (CP) to credit risk weighted assets (CRWA) coverage.

The broker highlights second half revenue was supported by a strong performance in the markets and treasury divisions.

A final dividend of 30cps fully franked was declared, which is better than the broker's expectation of 28cps.

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add partly due to a slight reduction in target price to $20 from $20.50, but largely due to share price strength over the last month.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $0.69
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -

National Australia Bank reported a cash net profit of $3.71bn in FY20, in line with Ord Minnett’s $3.72bn albeit -27.2% versus last year. A final dividend of 30c was declared, ahead of the broker's 25c forecast, taking the full-year dividend to 65c per share.

Even as the revenue was more than expected, Ord Minnett notes the bank is not immune to the pressures facing the broader banking industry.

The SME book is likely to drive higher credit costs, assesses the broker but considers the risk has already been factored into the share price.

Noting the bank remains its key preference among the major banks, Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate recommendation with the target price falling to $20.80 from $20.90. 

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $1.49
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Buy (1) -

National Australia Bank delivered a solid result for the current environment in the opinion of UBS.

Net interest margins (NIM) beat the broker's expectations, falling just three basis points (ex Mkts) and there was considered to be a big bounce in trading income from a weak first half. Credit Charges were slightly higher than the analyst expected.

UBS believes the bank is well prepared for the recession and offers potential growth if it increases lending to business.

The broker upgrades the basic EPS estimate by 37% in FY21, given lower anticipated credit losses and a higher NIM starting point. Basic EPS forecasts are also upgraded by 8% in FY22 and 6% in FY23, given higher assumed NIM and business loan growth.

The Buy rating and target price of $20.50 are unchanged.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $1.19
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

nib Holdings' September quarter noted better Australian residents health insurance (ARHI) trends. International inbound health insurance (IIHI) sales were weaker with a net contraction in policies of -6,825k as opposed to last year's growth of 6,922.

While Morgan Stanley finds it hard to draw any solid conclusion from the short period, the broker concedes growth in ARHI is encouraging with lower lapses than pre-pandemic.

The insurer is targeting net organic policyholder growth of 2-3% in FY21.

Equal-weight rating with a target of $4.75. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.4
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Accumulate (2) -

nib Holdings noted good volume trends in the first quarter of FY21 in the Australian Residents Health Insurance (ARHI) segment. While New Zealand volumes rose, the international inbound health insurance (IIHI) business was weaker than expected.

On the bright side, Ord Minnett points to favourable claims trends and suggests there could be upside if trends continued in the first half.

Believing nib Holdings offers more potential upside versus peer Medibank Private ((MPL)), Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating with a target price of $5.95.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $1.6
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QUB as Reduce (5) -

An ACCC Container Stevedoring Monitoring Report (CSMP) provides insights into the industry relevant to Patrick. Patrick contributes $0.63cps to the Morgans target price for Qube Holdings. 

In a review of 2020, the CSMP noted the impact of economic weakness and covid-19 on industry volumes (-6.2% for Patrick). It also highlighted rapid growth in terminal access charges (TAC) levied on trucks and rail more than offset downward pressure on revenue.

The analyst makes no change to the group earnings (EBITDA) forecast.

The Reduce rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $2.52 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Scentre Group's third-quarter trading report noted increasing rent collections at 85% for the quarter versus 48% in the second quarter.

Morgan Stanley highlights the third-quarter figure includes deferred rents from previous months. Excluding the deferred rents, rent collection was at around 70%.

Leasing activity has come back to normal levels with lease structures in line with the pre-covid deals. On the flip side, occupancy showed a slight decline.

Overweight rating. Target is $2.65. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.27
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SCG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes Scentre Group's quarterly update reported improved cash collections, which increased to 85% in the third quarter and 96% in October. The broker thinks the group’s cash collections will be sector leading in retail.

The broker expects the net operating income (NOI) to stabilise at 90% of pre-covid NOI in FY21. The group will pay a second-half distribution, estimated at 10.7c per share by the broker, lifting to 16.5c in FY21.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold recommendation with the target rising to $2.50 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.12
If SCG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

Scentre Group's third quarter result showed UBS a recovery in foot traffic and collections, while occupancy was lower.

The company indicated that 92% of stores are open and trading with more stores to open in coming weeks. Third quarter rent collection of 85% includes rent collected in prior periods - so the better metric to focus on is year-to-date collections of 77%, explains the broker.

The key notable metric for the analyst was occupancy of 98.4%, which deteriorated a further -40 basis points from June. UBS expects this to continue falling, leading to reduced leasing tension, lower rents and highlighting income uncertainty.

The Neutral rating and target price of $2.40 are unchanged.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.02
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIQ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

The third quarter update indicates to Morgans broader car purchasing demand is picking up, while cash generation and the balance sheet remain solid.

The broker points out trading showed improvement in the recovery run rate, in particular novated lease volume.

On a short-term view Morgans increases the rating to Add from Hold and expects recovery trends to continue to show improvement.

The target price is decreased to $6.55 from $6.75.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $1.18
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Senex Energy's updated earnings guidance in the wake of the divestment of its Cooper Basin assets is in line with the broker's estimation. A -65% cut to FY21 profit forecasts is offset by the $87.5m cash injection on sale.

Adding in lower expected costs at Surat and a risked valuation for the newly acquired Bowen Basin exploration acreage leads to a target increase to 43c from 40c. Buy (High Risk) retained.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.11
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

Senex Energy is targeting more than 10mmboe in annual production by FY25  versus the circa 3mmboe in FY21. This target is driven by the 24TJ/d expansion of operations at Roma North, Atlas and Roma North West.

While the company hasn't ruled out inorganic growth, Credit Suisse expects it to remain focused on developing the existing large coal seam gas reserves in Queensland.

The broker considers Senex Energy a coal-seam-gas (CSG) pure-play with its valuation leveraged to both oil and East Coast gas prices. There are upside catalysts including stable cash flows from its assets at Roma North and Atlas and improving gas prices.

Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $0.41 from $0.43. 

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.09
If SXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Senex Energy's investor briefing highlighted the potential growth within the company’s Queensland coal seam gas (CSG) assets. Management aims to reach 10 mmboe driven by growth from the Roma North and Atlas assets.

The broker believes the key to the outlook will depend on the gas markets. Senex remains Ord Minnett's preferred small-cap energy stock due to its attractive valuation and leverage to east coast gas prices.

Buy rating maintained with the target rising to $0.43 from $0.42.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.11
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

While acknowledging the political risk, Citi believes Treasury Wine Estates has now fallen far enough for valuation to be appealing.

There is no evidence of alleged "dumping" of premium wines in China and Treasury Wine will be in a better position than most if tariffs target lower priced wines. Volumes are nevertheless likely to be held up for 4-6 weeks as China investigates.

Citi upgrades to Buy (High Risk) from Neutral given the stock price suggests the loss of Chinese trade, while warning it's still a binary risk. Target unchanged at 10.40.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $2.44
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

According to an update by Treasury Wine, depletions across Asia and the US were strong in the first quarter. Asia depletions grew by 14% led by momentum in China while the US noted growth of 5% across all channels.

Morgan Stanley notes Treasury Wine remains well placed to recover from covid-19 related disruptions except for the investigation by China that remains an overhang.

Earnings growth forecasts lifted by about 5% due to the stronger than expected depletions.

Overweight rating maintained with a target of $11. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $3.04
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Following forecast changes and applying lower multiples for heightened geopolitical risk, Morgans price target for Treasury Wine Estates  has fallen to $9.35 from $12.74.

Given a stronger than expected first quarter, the analyst increases FY21 profit (NPAT) by 2.6%.

Uncertainties impacting various areas of the company's business (particularly China) necessitates a continuation of the Hold rating, despite the broker praising the company's many attributes.

Morgans highlights key upside risks including if China doesn’t implement a tariff on Australian wine, covid-19 doesn’t impact earnings by the degree the broker has forecast and US market conditions improve quicker than expected.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $1.39
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates' update for the first quarter was mostly positive, observes Ord Minnett. The broker is pleased with the progress in the US with growing volumes. 

China's investigation remains a significant risk yet the broker notes Treasury Wine has indicated some mitigation efforts. The broker remains concerned about the negative impact on earnings from a reallocation of wines from China to other markets.

Hold recommendation is reaffirmed with the target declining to $9 from $10.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $1.04
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS believes the key driver for Treasury Wine Estates is China, with risks including tariffs from an anti-dumping investigation and potential retrospective tariff on imports. Additionally, there is speculation on a wine import suspension by 5 November.

Separately, the broker considers the first quarter update was incrementally positive, driving 2-3% EPS upgrades.

As the share price is factoring in an around -$4.40 valuation impact from tariffs, the analyst thinks the risk/reward is now favourable and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The target price is decreased to $8.80 from $12.50.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $0.84
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -

Flight Centre expects an earlier rebound in the corporate travel segment than in leisure. 

Looking at this, Morgan Stanley prefers Corporate Travel Management over Webjet ((WEB)) since the broker considers the former's pathway to profitability clearer than the latter's.

Webjet's online travel agency (OTA) business is lagging Corporate Travel's Australia and New Zealand business. Also, Morgan Stanley notes Webjet is more reliant on vaccines and reopening of the international border.

Equal-weight with a target of $3.40. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources