Australian Broker Call

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July 30, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 12:22 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AMC - AMCOR Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
AMP - AMP Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
AMC  AMCOR LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $15.02

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Amcor's growth outlook is returning to more normal levels after a disappointing FY18. The broker expects EBIT growth of 3% as FY18 was negatively affected by rising raw material costs and challenges in the North American beverage market as well as difficult conditions in Latin America.

Most of these issues should moderate over the next 12 months. The broker does not believe the better outlook is reflected in the current valuation and upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $15.80 from $14.80. Cautious industry view.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $15.02 Difference: $0.78
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.39, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.56 cents and EPS of 81.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.73 cents and EPS of 86.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $3.46

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts have adopted the view the latest profit downgrade only addresses some of the issues plaguing AMP, so there remains plenty of room for further disappointments. The broker reduces estimates for FY19 by -5% and makes just compositional changes to FY18.

Citi is encouraged by the evidence that core growth business are still growing but notes lots of one-off costs.

Target price has been cut to $3.50 (from $3.90), explaining a -25% discount to valuation still applies. Neutral rating retained alongside a High Risk attachment.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.04
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates AMP as Outperform (1) -

AMP has announced a series of actions to re-set the business. This includes $565m of upfront costs over the next three years. Credit Suisse suggests this provides an element of clarity but there is still uncertainty regarding how much brand damage has been done.

It is unclear what additional fee reductions are required and if this will speed up the convergence of back and front book prices. Credit Suisse lowers FY18 underlying profit estimates by -5.2% and outer years by -5%. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $4.80. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $1.04
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

AMP has downgraded first half profit guidance to $490-500m compared to the broker's $508m forecast. The dividend payout will be reduced to the lower end of the 70-90% range and super fee re-basing will strip some $50m off revenues in the FY.

AMP has announced a variety of measures to re-base the business and while this is a step in the right direction, the broker suggests, there is a risk of further re-basing, more one-off costs and reduced excess capital.

Neutral retained, target falls to $3.90 from $4.30.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.44
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

AMP's updated and downgraded first half profit guidance was largely driven by a strengthening of reserves in life insurance and a deterioration in the retail book, Morgan Stanley observes. Reported earnings will be hit by -$55m in one-off costs and a $290m provision for potential remediation stemming from the ASIC review of advice.

The broker suggests the market is pricing in material downgrades and loss of value while the update highlights resilience and capital strength. Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $4.30 from $4.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.84
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

AMP has announced a number of additional expenses related to regulatory and remediation activities along with the cuts in wealth management. The company will report its first half result on August 8.

Ord Minnett believes the stock is cheap on a relative PE basis to many others that are trading above through-the-cycle valuations. Still, the broker acknowledges investors will need to be patient and hope there is not a worst-case regulatory change.

Given the recent fall in the share price the broker upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target is reduced to $3.90 from $4.20.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.44
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

UBS suspects the update and downgrade to first half estimates is just the start of addressing some significant issues facing the business. First half profit guidance has been reduced to $490-500m versus UBS estimates at $528m. This is almost entirely stemming from the wealth protection experience and capitalised losses.

Fee reductions planned for the third quarter represent the only recurring impact on underlying profit beyond FY19 but the broker suggests there is likely to be considerable debate about the numerous costs that will be taken below the line for the next 2-3 years. Sell rating and $3.30 target maintained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP BILLITON LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $34.30

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse suggests the combined US$10.8bn to be received from the sale of the US onshore assets should please investors. The company has reiterated its commitment to return net proceeds to shareholders although the form and timing is still unknown.

The broker believes the deal unlocks many additional benefits although these are difficult to quantify. Management has now more time to focus on its core areas. Neutral rating and $31 target maintained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $34.30 Difference: minus $3.3 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.35, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 130.76 cents and EPS of 217.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 115.23 cents and EPS of 226.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.1, implying annual growth of 23.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

The sale price of US$10.8bn, all cash, for BHP's shale assets is marginally above the broker's expectations. With management promising to return this to shareholders a clean cash sale is a major positive, the broker suggests.

The broker now incorporates a buyback into its valuation. Outperform retained, target rises to $41 from $38.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $34.30 Difference: $6.7
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.35, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 148.89 cents and EPS of 223.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 151.48 cents and EPS of 255.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.1, implying annual growth of 23.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

BHP has sold its US onshore assets to BP and MMGJ Houghton. The proceeds will be returned to shareholders and the form will be announced on completion of the deal, expected in October. Ord Minnett considers this a value-neutral deal.

BHP is now the broker's preferred large-cap stock in the sector. Accumulate rating and $39 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $34.30 Difference: $4.7
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.35, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 151.48 cents and EPS of 93.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 164.42 cents and EPS of 231.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.1, implying annual growth of 23.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

BHP has announced the sale of its onshore US oil & gas assets for US$10.8bn. The sale means the company has now completely exited from onshore.

BHP will return the proceeds to shareholders, in line with its capital allocation framework. The form of the returns as well as the timing will be determined at the completion of the transactions.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $37 target.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $34.30 Difference: $2.7
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.35, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 168.31 cents and EPS of 229.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 165.72 cents and EPS of 247.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.1, implying annual growth of 23.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DCN  DACIAN GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.86

Macquarie rates DCN as Outperform (1) -

Dacian's June Q production was in line with guidance. The Mt Morgans ramp up is on track, the broker notes, with first production expected in the Dec Q.

Exploration continues at Mt Morgans and the broker notes underground drilling at Cameron Well has been a standout. Outperform and $3.60 target retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.74
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.13.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD  G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $14.31

Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts reiterate a Buy rating for GUD Holdings and expect high single-digit organic growth, bolt-on automotive acquisitions, as well as potential margin expansion from synergies & scale benefits.

The broker notes automotive revenue stood out in FY18 and estimates the automotive business delivered margins of 29%. Citi forecasts flat margins in FY19. The target is raised to $15.50 from $14.45.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.31 Difference: $1.19
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.85, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 75.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 30.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.3, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates GUD as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse found few surprises in the FY18 result or the FY19 outlook. High single-digit growth in automotive appears sustainable and the company has capacity for further acquisitions.

The broker makes positive revisions to earnings estimates of around 5%, which stems from the incorporation of the Disc Brakes acquisition as well as slightly higher organic growth assumptions. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $14.65 from $12.60.

Target price is $14.65 Current Price is $14.31 Difference: $0.34
If GUD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.85, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 75.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 30.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.62 cents and EPS of 81.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.3, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates GUD as Hold (3) -

FY18 earnings were below Ord Minnett's estimates. The outlook for the automotive business is strong although the broker suggests much of the re-rating of cash flow has already occurred.

Management has signalled both its divisions are expected to grow in FY19, although no quantifiable guidance was provided. Automotive now accounts for around 75% of revenue and 90% of group EBIT.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $14 from $13.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.31 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.85, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 30.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.3, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $4.49

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Underperform (5) -

The company has disclosed a -10% decline in grade and -21% metal loss at Nova. Adjusting for the revised reserve, Credit Suisse reduces the target to $3.95 from $4.20.

The company's portfolio has been reduced to Nova and Tropicana, and the solid June quarter at Tropicana has been offset by the less-robust outlook at Nova, in the broker's view. Underperform maintained.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.53 cents and EPS of 8.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 217.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.62 cents and EPS of 25.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 316.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KLL  KALIUM LAKES LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $0.49

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

Kalium Lakes has released a scoping study and initial resource for Carnegie and will undertake a pre-feasibility study over the next 12-18 months. While this is a positive step the broker ascribes no value for Carnegie as yet.

Outperform and 60c target retained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.11
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.03.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $17.05

ADDED

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Mineral Resources has announced a joint venture with Brockman Mining ((BCK)) in return for $250,000 expenditure on exploration and development at the Mirallana tenements. The joint venture will develop and operate a 20mtpa iron ore export operation with potential to increase production capacity to 30mtpa.

Overweight and $21.50 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: $4.45
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.83, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.70 cents and EPS of 135.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.7, implying annual growth of 33.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 91.70 cents and EPS of 156.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.3, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -

The company will farm in with Brockman Mining ((BCK)) to the Marillana iron ore project in Western Australia. Mineral Resources may earn up to a 50% stake, contingent on a $10m loan to Brockman, $250,000 in exploration expenditure and completion of mine and plant design studies.

The company has flagged a bulk ore shuttle system may cost $1.4-1.6bn and Ord Minnett awaits further information with the upcoming financial results. Hold maintained. Target is $18.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: $0.95
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.83, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 156.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.7, implying annual growth of 33.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.3, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1  MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $4.28

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

The June quarter was marginally softer than UBS estimated. Still, quarter-on-quarter growth across most metrics impress the broker, with cash receipts up 29% and revenue up 12%.

The company has continued to expand its cloud ecosystem and network capacity, adding 100Gbps of capacity and entering into multiple new partnerships. Buy rating and $5.20 target.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.92
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -24.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -21.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OGC  OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.09

Citi rates OGC as Buy (1) -

OceanaGold's June quarter production results were largely pre-released. The surprise came in the form of a 1c interim dividend and Citi analysts also point out very few gold miners can match OceanaGold when it comes to producing at low cost.

OceanaGold's AISC (all-in production costs) for the June quarter fell to US$679/oz. Buy rating and $4.70 price target retained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.61
If OGC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.18 cents and EPS of 33.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.88 cents and EPS of 32.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates OGC as Buy (1) -

UBS believes the stock is re-rating closer to its peers and its diversification, low costs and improving balance sheet demand attention.

OceanaGold has good value versus the sector, in the broker's view, and the key catalyst is the permits for Haile, with the high-grade underground likely being accessed in the second half of this year.

Buy rating and $4.20 target maintained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.11
If OGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.18 cents and EPS of 25.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.47 cents and EPS of 19.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.09

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse notes the depletion at Duketon has been 60% replaced and there is good mine life visibility for South Duketon. Limited mine life is visible at Moolart Well but the addition of Gloster and Dog Bolter provide higher-grade satellites to the remnant.

Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $4.55 target.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.59 cents and EPS of 32.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.70 cents and EPS of 41.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of 8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.37

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates SBM as Sell (5) -

On Deutsche Bank's forecasts, St Barbara has hit "peak gold".Gwalia is a world class asset, the analysts acknowledge, with good management, but production is entering a down cycle with costs rising over time. Not a good combination, and it explains why the Sell rating remains in place.

Management's updated guidance sees production rising, but also costs, point out the analysts. Target $4.20.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 24.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of -10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Copper

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Overnight Price: $8.16

Citi rates SFR as Sell (5) -

The company delivered a strong June quarter production report, but alas, it came alongside guidance for a flat outlook for FY19 and was considered rather disappointing by Citi analysts.

Target price rises to $7.60 from $6.70 on increased forecasts for the price of copper, but otherwise Sell/High Risk rating retained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 83.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 81.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SFR as Underperform (5) -

The June quarter has delivered FY18 guidance at lower costs, Credit Suisse observes. The company is performing to plan on the June quarter grade. 2019 guidance is in line with expectations.

The broker also notes progress on Black Butte and Monty. Rating is Underperform. Target is $6.70.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.23 cents and EPS of 84.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 66.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates SFR as Hold (3) -

It appears the June quarter performance proved well ahead of expectations, while guidance is merely in-line with what Deutsche Bank analysts were expecting.

Hold rating retained on valuation. Target $8.80.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: $0.64
If SFR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

While Sandfire's copper and gold production in the Jun Q beat the broker's estimates by 8% and 6% respectively, weak FY19 guidance has led the broker to cut by -10% and -6%, due to lower average grades at DeGrussa.

Higher grades are expected ahead but DeGrussa has less than four years to live and exploration success has alluded the company recently, the broker notes. Neutral retained, target falls to $9.10 from $9.20.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: $0.94
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 85.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 99.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SFR as Reduce (5) -

Sandfire comfortably met revised FY18 guidance, Morgans observes. FY19 guidance is a little below expectations, attributed to a delay in access to higher grade ore, and the broker suggests this has shaken confidence.

Cash accumulation remains impressive but Morgans notes the outlook is increasingly reliant on exploration success and the development at Black Butte. Reduce maintained. Target is raised to $7.33 from $7.02.

Target price is $7.33 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Hold (3) -

June quarter production was ahead of estimates. Costs also impressed for the quarter but FY19 production and cost guidance is softer than anticipated.

Higher costs were assessed from the Monty copper deposit while higher grades are taking longer to come through. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $8.70 from $9.20.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: $0.54
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

June quarter production was ahead of estimates but guidance, particularly on costs, drives a downgrade to UBS forecasts. The broker suggests Sandfire may engage in further M&A activity to extend mine life.

The June quarter rate of copper production is unlikely to be sustained into FY19, UBS believes. Guidance is for 63-67,000t of copper and 37-40,000 ounces of gold. Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.20 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TME  TRADE ME GROUP LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms

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Overnight Price: $4.53

UBS rates TME as Re-instate Coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS re-instates coverage with a Neutral rating and NZ$4.75 target. Trade Me is considered one of the most popular online classified and e-commerce sites in New Zealand and is currently trading at around a -40% discount to global peers.

UBS suggests the discount is warranted, as it incorporates a decline in free cash flow in Market Place as competition increases as well as very low car dealer profitability that constrains yield growth over the medium term. TME Motors is expected to become the largest division in FY18.

Current Price is $4.53. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 21.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.41 cents and EPS of 22.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VHT  VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $0.78

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

First quarter results have demonstrated to Morgans that the positive momentum is continuing. FY19 guidance of NZ$9m has been confirmed for annual recurring revenue.

The key catalyst, in the broker's opinion, is the improving price per screen, which currently sits at an average of US$3. Add rating and $0.93 maintained.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.15
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.21.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $35.54

ADDED

Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Woodside's growth prospects are becoming clearer and de-risking of opportunities will drive the stock price higher.

The broker believes the market will incrementally value the company's 2C resource at a time when LNG markets are firming, as longer-dated projects such as Scarborough and Browse are de-risked.

Woodside will report its results on August 15. Target is $37.50. Overweight retained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $35.54 Difference: $1.96
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.29, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 167.66 cents and EPS of 211.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 215.30 cents and EPS of 269.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.5, implying annual growth of 11.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AMC AMCOR Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $15.02
AMP AMP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.46
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.46
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.46
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.46
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.46
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $3.46
BHP BHP BILLITON Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $34.30
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $34.30
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $34.30
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $34.30
DCN DACIAN GOLD Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.86
GUD G.U.D. HOLDINGS Buy - Citi Overnight Price $14.31
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $14.31
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $14.31
IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.49
KLL KALIUM LAKES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.49
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $17.05
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $17.05
MP1 MEGAPORT Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.28
OGC OCEANAGOLD Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.09
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.09
RRL REGIS RESOURCES Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.09
SBM ST BARBARA Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.37
SFR SANDFIRE Sell - Citi Overnight Price $8.16
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.16
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $8.16
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.16
Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $8.16
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.16
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $8.16
TME TRADE ME GROUP Re-instate Coverage with Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $4.53
VHT VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.78
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $35.54
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

14

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

11

5. Sell

7

Monday 30 July 2018

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.