Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Sell (5) -

Citi considers 29Metals' December quarter activities report, noting corporate costs and debt servicing ate into the double-digit growth in cash post capex for Golden Grove.

At quarter end, cash was $252m post a $172m raising, with no new information offered. The broker highlights corporate costs, transport, and treatment charges are all higher than anticipated in 2025 guidance, offset by improved metal production guidance.

Accounting for the update, Citi lifts the 2024 EPS estimate by 24.4% but drops the 2025 EPS forecast by -188.2%.

Sell/High Risk rating remains. Target price falls to 20c from 25c due to the changes in the 2025 earnings outlook.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights 29Metals had a strong 4Q24 with copper production of 5.3kt beating its estimate by 17%. The company partially pre-released FY25 guidance where copper and zinc guidance was in line with Macquarie's estimates.

Total operating cost guidance midpoint of $483m and total capex guidance midpoint of -$155m were higher than the broker's estimates by 4% and 3% respectively.

The broker updated forecasts to within a 2% midpoint of guidance for all metrics, resulting in a 1% increase to FY24 EPS and -9% decrease to FY25 EPS.

Target price of 30c and Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.07
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes 29Metals reported better-than-expected copper sales for the December quarter, but costs were higher.

Golden Grove achieved copper production above the broker's and consensus expectations by 8% and 11%, respectively. Gold and silver were also better than forecast, while zinc was below estimates.

Costs for the quarter at Golden Grove were 28% above the broker's forecasts, and all-in-sustaining costs were 25% above expectations.

Management's 2025 guidance is in line with consensus estimates, the analyst states.

Target price remains 29c. Equal-weight retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.06
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates 4DX as Speculative Buy (1) -

While 4DMedical's 2Q trading update broadly met Ord Minnett's forecasts, with base sites rising by 41% to 301 and scan volumes by 77% to more than 8,000, an absence of revenue generation was noted.

The broker's target falls to $1.00 from $1.10 after tempering near-term revenue expectations, having previously assumed a step-change in revenue growth from the 2H of FY25 (via the Philips agreement), which is now deferred to the 2H2 of FY26.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.425
If 4DX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A4N as Speculative Buy (1) -

Alpha HPA's 2Q update revealed $149m of cash on hand and $3m of debt, after a quarterly operating cash outflow of -$10.6m and capex of -$21.4m.

Bell Potter highlights an acceleration in end user engagement over the quarter, particularly from the semiconductor sector.

High purity alumina hydrate (ATH) sales orders for semiconductor applications have been at prices of around US$25/t, observe the analysts, compared to the US$15t envisaged in the company's definitive feasibility study (DFS).

The Speculative Buy rating and $2.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $1.125
If A4N meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

In Macquarie's view, Amplitude Energy's (formerly Cooper Energy) impressive cash generation and -$25m reduction in net debt were key highlights of the 2Q25 report.

The company's average realised gas prices improved to $9.98/GJ in 2Q from $9.41/GJ in 1Q, as 35% of the portfolio was delivered into the spot market. Production was 3% higher versus 1Q.

The broker raised FY25-26 EPS forecasts by 6% on slightly better production, stronger gas realisation, partly offset by minor cost increase.

Target price rises to 29c from 28c. Outperform rating unchanged. The company remains the broker's top pick for East Coast gas exposure.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.095
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 39.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Buy (1) -

Atlas Arteria's 4Q 2024 reported traffic metrics revealed a recovery across the company's markets, including light vehicle traffic improving for both APRR in France and Chicago Skyway in the US, the Citi analyst observes.

Dulles Greenway reported robust growth of 9% in the quarter versus a contraction of -5% year to date, the broker notes.

While acknowledging the recovery in traffic levels is positive for Atlas Arteria, Citi highlights the "bigger driver" of cash flows and distributions is a softer AUD.

The broker raises EPS estimates by 2.2% and 5.5% for FY25/FY26, respectively, pointing to the risk of additional taxes from France impacting FY25 distributions.

Buy/High Risk rating retained. Citi believes on an 8% dividend yield the stock is offering value. Target price of $5.80 is unchanged.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.78
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes there will be a slightly "positive" reaction to Atlas Arteria's December quarter update.

The analyst notes APRR traffic grew 2% versus the previous corresponding period and 4% versus 2019, representing around 60% of the broker's company valuation.

Chicago Skyway, at around 29% of the analyst's valuation, reported traffic growth of 2% versus a year earlier and a decline of -2% compared to 2019. Dulles Greenway experienced 9% traffic growth on the previous corresponding period and a decline of -16% against 2019.

Morgan Stanley notes 2024 results are due to be reported on February 27, and the French budget tax impacts remain.

Equal-weight. Target $5.30. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.28
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Hold (3) -

Atlas Arteria's Q4 traffic and toll revenue data release has an immaterial impact on Morgans forecasts.

At the 31%-owned APPR network, revenue and traffic increased by 6.2% and 2.2%, respectively, correlating with robust traffic across France reported by other toll network owners, observes the analyst.

In line with the broker's forecasts, Q4 revenue and traffic at the Chicago Skyway (66.7% share) increased 8.5% and 1.7%, respectively.

A Hold rating is retained, and the target price rises to $4.63 from $4.61.

Target price is $4.63 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALX as Accumulate (2) -

Atlas Arteria's 4Q update showed 2024 weighted average traffic growth of 1%, in line with consensus, and revenue growth of 5%, slightly ahead of expectations, observes Ord Minnett.

The APRR toll road network in France saw traffic growth of 2% due to strong light vehicle traffic, explains the analyst, while the Chicago Skyway posted a 2% increase, rebounding from a low base.

The Dulles Greenway recorded a 9% rise, benefiting from congestion on alternative routes, explains Ord Minnett.

The target price increases to $5.30 from $5.00 on higher earnings forecasts, and the broker maintains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.28
If ALX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Aurelia Metals had a relatively in-line 2Q25 production result with FY25 guidance maintained, though it sees a slight risk to operating cost guidance.

The company is expected to release a final investment decision (FID) for its Peak plant expansion and Great Cobar in 2H25.

The broker anticipates a positive FID and has updated its base case integrating Peak processing plant expansion to 1,150ktpa from 800kt and Great Cobar development capex in FY26, forecasting -$80m of growth capex.

The revisions have lowered FY25 and FY26 EPS by -6% and -14% respectively. Target price decreases to 25c from 26c. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.065
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Aurelia Metals delivered a strong quarterly result, assesses Ord Minnett, exceeding the broker's production estimates for copper, zinc, lead, and gold by approximately 18%.

This outperformance, coupled with better cost performance, resulted in a cash balance of $97m, surpassing the analysts' expectations by $17m, despite a -$19m investment in the Federation project.

First ore was processed from Federation during the quarter, achieving higher-than-expected grades of around 8.9% zinc and recoveries of approximately 86%, highlights Ord Minnett.

The target price increases to 31c from 30c, and the Speculative Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.125
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ART as Add (1) -

Following Airtasker's 2Q trading update, Morgans highlights positive momentum, particularly evident in offshore growth rates.

Group revenue rose by 11% on the previous corresponding period to $13.6m, with a UK revenue growth rate of circa 95%, highlighting positive early results of the marketing campaigns, according to the analyst.

Add retained. The broker's target rises to 56c from 52c after raising revenue estimates by between 4-7% over FY25-FY27.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.095
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Add (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery's 3Q operating cash flow met Morgans forecast, however, management narrowed its FY25 guidance for revenue to a range of NZ$81-84m from NZ$80-87m and for normalised EBITDA to NZ$2-4m from NZ$2-6m.

The broker attributes the revenue guidance cut to weaker TelaBio revenue for hernia repair and intravenous product shortages.

The analysts' forecasts for FY26 and FY27 revenue are reduced by -5%, with a -17% and 1-5% impact on earnings (EBITDA), respectively.

The broker lowers the target price to 93c from $1.05. Add retained.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.325
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Autosports Group's pre-reported 1H25 revenue implies a 1.46% net profit before tax margin which declined -250bps year on year, likely driven by discounting.

The company noted new vehicle trading conditions were challenging in November and December 2024, leading to lower-than-anticipated new vehicle revenues for this period.

The broker expects the challenging demand environment to persist into 2H25.

The broker cut FY25 earnings estimate by -35% driven by a reduction in gross profit margin (GPM) and increased employee costs, with revenue unchanged.

FY26 estimate is cut -8% as the broker had previously forecast GPM to normalise by then. Target price lowered to $2.35 from $2.80. Outperform.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.65
If ASG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes Autosports Group's 1H25 revenue guidance came in below the analyst's forecast by -3.5%, which the broker considers reflective of weaker new vehicle volumes over November and December.

The broker notes the stock's share price decline of -3% following the -29% downgrade in guidance suggests the market is looking through the cycle to future RBA rate cuts, with margins at or near the bottom of the cycle.

UBS lowers EPS estimates by -27% and -13% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Target price falls to $1.80 from $2.10. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.1
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVR as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Anteris Technologies with a Speculative Buy rating and a target of $15.00.

The company is advancing its DurAVR transcatheter aortic heart valve (THV) for severe aortic stenosis, targeting an estimated 12m patients globally.

The TAVR market is forecast to grow at 8% annually, with over 150,000 procedures expected in 2025, generating more than US$6bn in revenue. The broker notes significant unmet demand for long-life TAVR solutions for younger patients.

Anteris plans to commence a pivotal study in 2025, with potential FDA approval and first commercial revenues anticipated in 2028-2029.

The trial is considered de-risked, explain the analysts, given strong early data showing superior hemodynamic performance and durability compared to existing TAVR devices.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $5.61
If AVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi highlights an apparent reduction in Accent Group's sales growth and gross margins since the AGM in the latest 1H25 trading update.

Accounting for the unexpected one-off -$3.3m non-recurring item, the update was broadly in line with consensus expectations.

The analyst notes a decline in like-for-like sales growth to 2.0% versus an estimate of 3.5% and 3.5% in the first 20 weeks. Increased promotions saw the gross margin shrink -100bps in 1H25, above the -70bps decline in the first four months.

Management indicated "inventory is clean." Citi lowers EPS forecasts by -5.1% and -11.6% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Accent Group is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price falls -2% to $2.43 from $2.47.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.23
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AX1 as Add (1) -

Morgans observes Accent Group's 1H25 trading update, which was slightly ahead of expectations for earnings before interest and tax once a $3.3m one-off benefit was backed out, the broker highlights.

The analyst views the cost of doing business was managed "better" than anticipated, while increased promotions impacted gross margins, which fell -100bps year-on-year to 55.6%, marking a larger decline than the -70bps drop for the first 18 weeks of trade in FY25.

Morgans believes ongoing discussions with the UK's Frasers Group about a long-term strategic agreement are continuing. The analyst sees this as something to watch over the next six months.

Add rating and $2.40 target price retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.2
If AX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Accent Group's 1H25 trading update of earnings before interest and tax of $26.7m, excluding a $3.3m nonrecurring item, is above UBS' forecast but below consensus, the broker highlights.

UBS notes the company returned to longer-term growth in like-for-like sales of 2%, driven by increased promotional activity, which impacted gross margins. Margins fell -100bps in weeks 21-26 versus a decline of -70bps for the first 20 weeks.

On a positive note, Accent achieved a reduction in the cost of doing business, which is expected to have a greater impact over 2025, the analyst notes.

Target price is lowered to $2.45 from $2.50. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.25
If AX1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy reported a "strong" December quarter update, according to Citi.

The analyst highlights U3O8 production advanced 96% quarter on quarter, with columns 1 and 2 operating at nameplate capacity and column 3 slated to reach nameplate capacity in February.

Citi notes a first shipment from Alta Mesa of 35,181lbs, while variances in production and drummed U3O8 related to time delays in the second kiln commissioning and conversion from uranium peroxide to U3O8.

Boss achieved sales of 200,000lbs at a US$77.5/lb price, which is viewed as strong by the analyst at 99% realisation versus the U3O8 spot price.

Management retained FY25 production guidance, with 2H25 cost guidance meeting 2021 costs adjusted for inflation, the broker states.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $3.60 from $3.40. Citi lifts EPS estimates by 94.8% and 23.3% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.6
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Boss Energy's update on Honeymoon costs was better than it feared. The broker expected a more dramatic increase in cash costs for FY25-26, so a $37-41/lb estimate for 2H25 and a path to $29-32/lb life of mine (LOM) came as a pleasant surprise.

The broker has now cut its estimate to US$23/lb LOM from US$27/lb.

Principally driven by lower Honeymoon cash costs, Macquarie's FY25 EPS estimate now flips to a profit of 6.2c vs loss of -3.2c previously. FY26 EPS raised by 13%.

Target price rises to $4.8 from $4.5. Outperform rating maintained.

Boss Energy remains one of Macquarie's top uranium picks.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $1.8
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes Boss Energy reported better-than-anticipated sales in the December quarter, exceeding consensus expectations.

The company's drummed production was below estimates, and the analyst attributes the discrepancy to delays in commissioning the horizontal kiln, which has been in operation since mid-January.

Management's 2H25 cost guidance came in below the broker's estimate due to previously higher assumed labour cost inflation, the analyst explains.

Target price $2.70. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy reported slightly lower-than-expected December quarter production of 137klb versus UBS' estimate, though it was a 53% increase on the previous quarter due to timing delays in kiln commissioning.

Management retained FY25 guidance at 850klb. Cost guidance for 2H25 at US$37-US$40/lb was in line with the broker's estimate, and capex also broadly met expectations.

UBS retains a Buy rating and a $3.40 target. The broker maintains a "conservative" view on the near-term recovery in the uranium price, with growing supply exceeding growing demand over 2025.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.4
If BOE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Following a 4Q update, Ord Minnett points out Brazilian Rare Earths remains well-funded, with an $82m cash balance supporting management's plan to deliver a mineral resource estimate for Monte Alto by the June quarter.

Further exploration at Pele is also ongoing, notes the broker.

Management plans to provide a mineral resource statement covering monazite sands and cumulate mineralisation in the June quarter this year, followed by a scoping study.

Ord Minnett maintains a Speculative Buy rating and a $5.50 target price.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $3.24
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 143% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Accumulate (2) -

Noting a strong 2024 trading update by competitor De'Longhi, Ord Minnett anticipates positive 1H results for Breville Group.

The analysts expect strong sales for Breville in key growth markets, Americas and EMEA, and a recovery in APAC.

The key risk, cautions the broker, remains the potential for higher tariffs on products out of China.

The Accumulate rating and $38 target are maintained.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $38.30 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.56, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CDA as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter previews 1H results for Codan due in February, forecasting revenue, earnings (EBITDA), and profit of $302m, $81.8m, and $44.1m, respectively.

No changes to the broker's forecasts but the target rises to $17.25 from $16.90 after a valuation roll-forward and some changes to underlying assumptions. Hold maintained.

Target price is $17.25 Current Price is $16.34 Difference: $0.91
If CDA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.02, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Citi notes Champion Iron reported "good" production for the December quarter, though sales were affected by train load problems with stockpiled concentrate, the analyst explains.

Earnings came in lower than consensus by -10%, which included a non-cash net unrealised forex loss, and net debt rose to CA$631m, the analyst highlights.

Citi believes the market will likely be disappointed with the lower cash generation, and while the sales result was well telegraphed, the broker sees better quarters as needed to boost market confidence.

Buy rated. Target $7.40.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: $1.84
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter describes a "mixed" 2Q trading update by COG Financial Services and lowers earnings estimates to reflect near-term headwinds. The analysts remain positive on the company’s long-term growth potential.

The broker highlights increased profitability for asset management and lending in Q2, overshadowed by a weaker-than-expected outcome for aggregation.

While the 1H profit (NPATA ) of $11.6m missed the analysts' $12.3m forecast, the exit rate for higher-margin parts of the business pleased the broker.

Buy. Target falls to $1.25 from $1.50 due to a change in rate of return for the level of capital employed, explains Bell Potter.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.25
If COG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

COG Financial Services has reported unaudited 1H profit (NPATA) of $11.6m, exceeding Ord Minnett's expectations by $1.3m due to lower corporate expenses and a strong performance in novated leasing.

The company is on track for the broker's $21.6m profit forecast in FY25, which supports a dividend forecast of 8 cents, fully franked.

Segment results were mixed, with Finance Broking & Aggregation profit falling by -12% but slightly ahead of forecasts, while Novated Leasing grew by 15% and exceeded the analysts' expectations.

Asset Management & Lending NPATA declined by 36%, underperforming Ord Minnett's estimate.

The broker retains a Buy rating and slightly lowers the target price to $1.34 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.34
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTT as Sell (5) -

Citi considers the December quarter sales update from Richemont, which revealed some signs the global luxury industry might be moving to recovery.

As a "bellwether" for Cettire, this is viewed as a positive by the broker, although web traffic for the company suggests the macro picture is not as simple.

The broker highlights Cettire's web traffic fell -23% year-on-year for January to date, which is worse than December.

Overall, too much uncertainty remains around the state of the overall luxury goods industry to give Citi confidence in a recovery for the company.

The stock remains Sell, High Risk rated. Target price $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If CTT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

With a recent change of analyst, Macquarie has remodelled Domain, leading to a -2% decline in FY25 EPS and a 1% increase in FY26, and a more constructive view on Australian growth drivers.

The broker's DCF-based target price is $2.85, down from $3.2 which was based on EV/EBITDA. Neutral rating retained.

Ahead of 1H25 result on February 13, Macquarie forecasts a $30m net profit, up 3% year on year and 6% above consensus.

The broker adds new CEO appointment/strategy, higher product investment, and improving industry feedback are catalysts to become more constructive on the company.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.18
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Buy (1) -

Following DroneShield's 4Q investor update, Bell Potter came away balancing a disappointing 2024 against a better than expected start to 2025, with $47.8m in contracted revenue. The latter represents 83% of the 2024 outcome.

Revenue for 2024 of $57.5m compared to the $65.8m forecast by the analysts, representing growth of only 6.3% year-on-year, and a net loss of -$4.8m. A faster-than-expected scale up of the business drove an increased cost base, explains the broker.

Target price is lowered to $1.10 from $1.20. Buy maintained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.46
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

Mining contractor and operator of two mining assets, Develop Global, released a 2Q update showing $57.9m of revenue, a beat against Bell Potter's $53.8m forecast.

Revenue from the Bellevue Gold Mine contract rose by 21% quarter-on-quarter, highlights the broker. The quarter ended with cash of $112.2m, drawn debt of $104.8m and equipment financing of $47.6m, for a net debt position of $40.1m.

The Buy rating remains unchanged, with the target price rising to $4.00 from $3.50 primarily due to Bell Potter's upgrade to its long-term base metal price outlook.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $1.65
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Fineos Corp's 4Q24 cash flow showed typical seasonal drag and was in line with its forecasts.

Outperform rating and $2.44 target price retained.

The broker notes new contract wins and the path to cash flow break-even are key milestones for the company.

Target price is $2.44 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.6
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Gold production for Gold Road Resources in Q4 was 91.6koz, ahead of Bell Potter's 90.2koz forecast, and the average gold sale price of $4,093/oz exceeded the broker's $4,000/oz estimate.

Costs (AISC) of $1,811/oz were also lower than the analysts' $1.900/oz forecast. 2025 guidance is for production of 325-355koz at a cost of between $2,400-2,600/oz.

Target price lifts to $2.85 from $2.55 partly due to the broker's higher gold price forecasts. Buy maintained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.37
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie notes Gold Road Resources' 4Q 2024 production met expectations, with all-in-sustaining costs lower than the analyst's forecast by -6% and below the consensus estimate by -14%.

The broker believes the company ended 2024 on a "solid" note, including an improvement in mining productivity. Production and costs were below guidance ranges, but the analyst highlights production was flagged by the company.

At quarter end, Gold Road Resources had cash and bullion of $174m and investments of $741m, including a 17.3% stake in De Grey Mining ((DEG)).

The broker remains on research restriction.

Current Price is $2.48. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Gold Road Resources added to its pre-released December quarter production with a three-year outlook and more detailed metrics for the period, notes UBS.

Having upgraded the production outlook last week, the analyst views the FY25 production guidance as disappointing, which has resulted in a downgrade in growth assumptions of -2% to -5% across FY25-FY27.

The broker points to the "surprise" in the higher all-in-sustaining costs from mine stripping, a larger camp, and the tailings storage facility.

UBS cuts EPS forecasts by -13% for FY25 and -3% for FY26.

Buy rating and $2.60 target remain unchanged.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.12
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

In an early take on today's largely in-line 4Q operational update by Karoon Energy, Citi highlights production of 2.6mmboe aligned with the broker's estimate, but missed by -2% against consensus.

Sales of 3.14mmboe was 4% ahead of Citi's estimate on timing of cargoes at Bauna.

Management's 2024 production cost guidance is now at US$14-15/boe, worse than US$13-15/boe prior, while finance costs and other operating costs have also been narrowed to the top end of the previous guidance ranges, observes the broker.

While 2025 production guidance of between 9.0-10.5 is in line with prior forecasts by Citi and consensus for 10.2mmboe, costs are all higher than the broker's forecasts, particularly unit opex.

Making best use of balance sheet headroom, suggests Citi, management will undertake a further US$75m on-market buyback over 2025.

Target $2.00. Buy.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.57
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -

In collaboration with Citi’s innovation lab, the analyst points to an acceleration in new store rollouts for Lovisa Holdings since the November AGM. The broker believes the company is in a stronger position to achieve the 1,000-store consensus target for FY25.

Citi's analysis leads to more store openings since late November in South Africa, Colombia, Canada, Germany, and the US, with seemingly 958 total stores as of January 27, against 900 at the end of FY24.

This implies a weekly run rate of 3.1 stores in the last ten weeks, a lift from 1.4 stores in the first twenty weeks, the analyst explains.

Citi believes the upcoming trading update from Lovisa is unlikely to surprise to the upside, with an upgrade more likely from new store rollouts in January and February.

No change to the Sell rating and $25.45 target price. No change to Citi's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $25.45 Current Price is $29.20 Difference: minus $3.75 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.71, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAP as Speculative Buy (1) -

Second quarter revenue of $4.4m for Microba Life Sciences was in line with Bell Potter's forecast. Unchanged Speculative Buy rating. The analysts' target price lifts to 36c from 35c due to a lower R&D spend.

Cash burn remains manageable, notes the broker, with a solid balance sheet to support ongoing development initiatives. The cash balance was $17.3m at quarter's end.

The broker highlights strong revenue growth from the company's testing segment, supported by expanding partnerships and international market penetration.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.08
If MAP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi's first take on Mineral Resources' December quarter update shows net debt at $5.1bn and cash of $500m, which meets the analyst's expectations but not consensus.

Capex in 1H25 was $1.4bn, with Onslow weighted in the period, and the operation achieved a production run rate of 19.2mt after January, nearing the company's 20mt run rate target for the end of FY25, the broker states.

Citi highlights shipments in the quarter of 3.2mt were impacted by unexpected downtime, and January was affected by the cyclone.

The broker believes there will be a "weaker" reaction to the quarterly update.

Neutral rated. Target price $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $36.25 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.93, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Pilbara Minerals' December quarter update highlighted a strategic shift towards diversification, with continued progress in downstream lithium conversion initiatives and long-term supply agreements, explains Bell Potter.

Production for the quarter was 161,000dmt of spodumene concentrate, with shipments of 162,000dmt at an average realised price of US$1,050/dmt.

Cash operating costs were $640/dmt, highlights the broker, reflecting stable operational efficiencies. The company ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet, holding $2.3bn in cash and no debt.

Bell Potter expects further vertical integration benefits and improving market conditions to support long-term growth. The broker raises the target price to $3.00 from $2.95 after incorporating the Latin Resources ((LRS)) acquisition into forecasts. Buy rating.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.64
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Pilbara Minerals reported better-than-expected production and improved realised pricing for the December quarter.

The analyst believes Pilbara remains the most leveraged to a pickup in the lithium market and highlights that operating and capex costs should move lower with P1000 volumes.

The Latin Resources ((LRS)) acquisition is expected to close on February 4, with Pilbara Minerals expected to conduct more exploration, Citi explains.

No change to the Neutral rating and $2.40 target price.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.04
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie assesses 2Q results for Pilbara Minerals were strong. Production of 188kt beat the consensus forecast by 4%, with sales of 204kt exceeding expectations by 11%.

Realised prices of US$700/dmt were also 6% higher than consensus, observes the analyst, and unit costs improved by 4% to US$406/t FOB.

The cash balance declined by -$182m to $1.2bn, driven by ongoing capital investment and provisional pricing adjustments, with the broker expecting a cash level below $1bn by year's end.

Macquarie is currently on research restriction for Pilbara Minerals and offers no rating or target price.

Current Price is $2.36. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Pilbara Minerals reported a "strong" December quarter, with spodumene production 1.15% above the analyst's forecast and shipments ahead of expectations by 9.2%.

Over 2025, pricing is anticipated to be more aligned with market pricing, as an underperforming offtake agreement was completed in the quarter and another was repriced, the broker explains.

Ganfeng's feasibility study is delayed to the end of 2025 from March, and the POSCO JV Train 2 has started ramp-up, Morgan Stanley details.

Overweight. Industry View: Attractive. Target price $2.55 unchanged.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.19
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a "solid" 2Q operational update by Pilbara Minerals. The analyst highlights slight beats across all metrics and notes the P1000 expansion project is on track and budget with full ramp-up expected by mid-2025.

Spodumene production of 188.2kt beat the consensus forecasts by 4%, while sales of the product were an 11% beat, and 9% ahead of the broker.

FY25 production, cost and capex guidance has been maintained.

Morgans assures investors cash flow improvements will be realised over 2025, given 2Q operating cash flow was negative when including capitalised mine development costs and sustaining capex.

The Add rating is maintained and the target lowered to $3.15 from $3.25.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.79
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

UBS observes Pilbara Minerals reported "solid" December quarter production of 188kt and sales of 194kt.

The analyst notes unit costs were in line, reflecting the impact of closing Ngungaju and ramping up P1000 into 2H25.

The realised price of US$700/t was better than anticipated by 5.3%.

UBS believes Pilbara is in a position to achieve downgraded FY25 guidance of 700-740kt at US$620-US$640/t, with 408kt currently produced in 1H25.

The broker expects management will take some time to optimise the Salinas project following the Latin Resources ((LRS)) acquisition.

Sell rating with a $2.40 target price maintained. No change to the analyst's EPS estimates.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.04
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Following the completed sale of the Apparel Brands assets to Myer ((MYR)) and the in specie distribution to Premier Investments' shareholders of the consideration paid, Ord Minnett updates its forecasts for Premier.

The target is lowered to $26.15 from $33 after Ord Minnett allows for the distribution to shareholders. The Buy rating is retained.

The broker values Premier's stake in Myer at circa $1.12bn, equating to $6.88 per Premier share.

Target price is $26.15 Current Price is $22.67 Difference: $3.48
If PMV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.11, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

Perseus Mining reported better-than-expected 2Q25 production against Citi's and consensus estimates, with costs coming in lower than forecast.

The analyst notes "notional" cash flow rose by $46m on the previous quarter, with all-in-sustaining-cost margins rising $255/oz on higher gold prices and lower costs.

Net cash, including bullion, advanced $61m to $704m at quarter end, and Citi points to the $100m on-market buyback expected to continue to September 2025.

The broker observes production guidance for 2H25 was lower at the midpoint, with falls at Edikan and Sissingue. Citi tweaks EPS forecast down by -3.8% in FY25 and up by 3.7% in FY27.

Target price lifts to $3.20 from $3.10. Neutral, High Risk.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.37
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Perseus Mining reported a "strong" December quarter result, with production above forecast and consensus by 8%, while all-in-sustaining costs were better than expected by 12% for the broker and 14% against consensus.

Management served up lower-than-anticipated 2H25 production guidance and weaker costs, the analyst observes.

Operationally, Yaoure and Edikan strength offset a weaker performance from Sissingue against Macquarie's estimates.

The broker cuts the FY25 EPS estimate by -3% and lifts FY26 by 5%.

No change to the Outperform rating and $3.70 target price.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.87
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights another "strong" quarterly performance from Perseus Mining, with December quarter production of 132koz, above the broker's estimate by 11%, and all-in-sustaining costs lower than expected by -18%.

The company appears to be aligned with achieving FY25 guidance, UBS details, and Nyanzaga is expected to start early 2027.

From that point, UBS believes production can exceed 600kozpa from FY28. The capex for Nyanzaga will be funded from the company's expanding cash generation, the broker explains.

The Buy rating and $3.35 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.52
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Outperform (1) -

A new analyst covering REA Group at Macquarie adopts a more constructive view on Australian growth drivers, and the broker's target accordingly rises to $265 from $230. The Outperform rating is maintained.

REA Group's 1H result is due on February 6, and the analyst forecasts a profit of $310m, consistent with the consensus expectation for $307m.

Target price is $265.00 Current Price is $246.95 Difference: $18.05
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $246.57, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Ramelius Resources' December quarter activity report was largely pre-released, with production at Mt Magnet and Edna May both lower than forecast and consensus expectations. All-in-sustaining costs were also weaker than anticipated.

The analyst highlights better grade contributions from Penny and Cue at Mt Magnet, which offset somewhat lower milled volumes.

At Edna May, the analyst observes stockpile grades continue to come in better than expected, again offset by lower milled volumes.

Management retained FY25 guidance at 270-300koz, but Macquarie notes both production and cost guidance might be changed at the 3Q25 update with the release of the new Mt Magnet mine plan.

The broker lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 6% and by 1% for FY26.

The $2.60 target and Outperform rating remain unchanged.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.21
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a strong 2Q operational report by Ramelius Resources, with mined grades at Cue open pit and Penny underground exceeding expectations.

Supported by higher gold prices, record free cash flow of $175m was achieved, observe the analysts, noting cash reserves have grown to $500m, which strengthens potential for acquisitions.

The company remains on track to meet FY25 guidance of 270-300koz at a cost (AISC) of between $1,500-1,700/oz, though the broker expects production to exceed the top-end at 304koz.

Further momentum is anticipated from ongoing production improvements, a planned Mt Magnet mill expansion, and the Eridanus cut-back, highlights Ord Minnett.

The Buy rating and $2.80 target are retained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.41
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGH as Accumulate (2) -

In a preview of SGH Ltd's 1H result due on February 11, Ord Minnett forecasts 8% growth in earnings (EBIT) on the previous corresponding period.

The analyst believes management may raise FY25 guidance, driven by improved earnings from its WesTrac Caterpillar distribution operation, aided by increased spare parts pricing effective from January 1.

A greater contribution to earnings is also expected from Beach Energy ((BPT)). Accumulate. Target $52.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $47.95 Difference: $4.05
If SGH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.10, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses the latest Wine Australia data, viewed as a "positive" for Treasury Wine Estates' outlook in the China market over the short term.

The analyst points to growth in bottled red wine exports to China of 20% in the December quarter and higher pricing of 26% over the period.

The broker observes the trend is consistent with comments made at October's AGM and better demand in the run-up to Chinese New Year.

The broker notes bottled red wine exports to Asia ex-China decreased, dropping -20% on the previous September quarter. Australia was impacted by ongoing cost-of-living pressures and structural headwinds from increased health focus on alcohol consumption.

Wine Australia also commented the American market continues to experience excess inventory, Citi details. Citi maintains a Buy rating with a $12.97 target price.

Target price is $12.97 Current Price is $10.47 Difference: $2.5
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Total Australian wine exports rose 34% for the 12 months to December, with the removal of Chinese tariffs in March assisting exports of $902m to China in the nine months to December.

Morgan Stanley highlights rest-of-the-world exports fell -14%, with Hong Kong down -42% year-on-year and the US down -10%.

The broker retains an Overweight rating on Treasury Wine Estates. Target price $14.60.

Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $10.47 Difference: $4.13
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

UBS observes Australian wine export data for the December quarter rose 26.8% in value from the previous corresponding period, with volume growth of 3.8%.

China's value growth was very strong, cycling a weak previous December quarter when tariffs were impacting, the analyst notes.

The United States experienced a decline of -15.8%, the UK fell -11.4%, and Hong Kong was down -67.2% in value terms.

UBS remains Buy rated on Treasury Wine Estates with an unchanged target price of $14.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $10.47 Difference: $3.53
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VAU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie describes a mixed 2Q operational update by Vault Minerals with a beat on costs (AISC), while production and sales missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -4% and -5%, respectively.

Management tightened FY25 sales guidance to 390-410koz from 390-430koz and left cost guidance unchanged.

Adopting a broader view, the analyst still sees FY25 as a 'set up year,' with stripping at KOTH and Mount Monger ultimately leading to a doubling of free cash flow (FCF) to 15% into FY26.

Target price remains at 57c. Outperform rated.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.2
If VAU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Vault Minerals reported a mixed December quarter, assesses Ord Minnett , with production down by -5% against estimates, though lower unit costs provided some offset.

Cash and free cash flow came in weaker-than-expected, impacted by a working capital build-up, explain the analysts.

Management tightened FY25 production guidance to 390-410koz from 390-430koz, with costs (AISC) unchanged at $2,250-2,450/oz.

Open pit grades at King of the Hills (KOTH) improved to 0.7g/t, highlights the broker, with further gains expected as Stage 2 is accessed. The planned mill expansion to 6mtpa by FY27 is set to lift annual output to around 230koz.

The target price is lowered to 53c from 55c, with the Buy rating maintained

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.16
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's 2Q operational update revealed a strong performance, in Bell Potter's view, with managed run-of-mine (ROM) production of 9.7mt and total coal sales of 8.1mt. The broker had forecast 9.1mt and 6.6mt, respectively.

Sales at Daunia rose by 34% quarter-on-quarter, offsetting unplanned lightning-induced downtime at Blackwater, explain the analysts.

Unit costs were stable, highlights the broker, supporting strong cash generation.

Whitehaven ended the quarter with $1.8bn in cash and no debt, positioning it well for further capital returns and strategic acquisitions, in Bell Potter's opinion. 

The broker highlights an increased capacity for shareholder returns, and raises its dividend forecast to 18cps across FY25-27. The $9.00 target is unchanged. Buy.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $2.95
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven Coal reported a robust 2Q25 activity report, according to Citi.

Both production and sales exceeded the broker's expectations, with total sales rising 22% on the previous quarter to 7.8mt.

Management retained FY25 guidance, with run-of-mine coal production and sales at the upper end of FY25 guidance, and costs at the lower end.

December quarter sales were comprised of 63% metallurgical coal and 37% thermal coal, the broker notes.

Citi lifts EPS estimates by 2.1% and 2.3% for FY25/FY26, respectively. Forecast dividends remain unchanged.

Target price is $8.30. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $2.25
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's 2Q update revealed a 5% coal sales beat against Macquarie's forecast, with production tracking in line with guidance. Unit costs are also trending toward the lower end of the $140-155/t guidance range, highlights the broker.

Less positively, realised prices in Queensland declined to US$152/t from US$176/t, with price realisations falling to 75% from 84%., observes tMacquarie.

While the analyst raises the FY25 EPS forecast by 34% on stronger sales, long-term estimates are cut by -11% due to weaker price realisations.

Macquarie lowers the target price by -6% to $8.50 while maintaining an Outperform rating.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $2.45
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Whitehaven Coal reported a "good" December quarter, with net debt declining to $1bn, below forecast by -15%.

Production growth was better than the broker's estimate by 4.4% and consensus by 1.7%, with Narrabri and Maules Creek exceeding expectations by 6% and 13%, respectively.

Morgan Stanley highlights the QLD cost-outs are progressing towards the target annual run rate of -$100m by the end of FY25.

Overweight rating. Target price $8.95. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $2.9
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Add (1) -

Morgans believes Whitehaven Coal represents "standout value" post the company's 2Q25 activities report.

Group production rose 8% on the previous quarter, and sales lifted 21%, boosted by the sale of Qld inventory, the broker notes.

The company appears to be progressing towards achieving FY25 volume guidance and costs at the lower end, Morgans observes.

With the selldown of Blackwater expected to generate post-tax proceeds of around US$1bn in 3Q25, the analyst forecasts gearing to decline below 10%.

The stock remains Add rated with a $9.50 target price, down from $9.65. Morgans views the current weakness as an opportunity for investors to look through the cycle and consider Whitehaven's leverage to a more "normal" cycle.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $3.45
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Highlighting the benefits of a diversified asset portfolio, Whitehaven Coal's 2Q managed run-of-mine (ROM) production of 9.7mt was in line with Ord Minnett's estimate, despite operational disruptions at Blackwater and Narrabri.

Higher equity sales of 7.8mt helped offset lower realised prices, note the analysts, while costs tracked towards the lower end of the $140-155/t guidance range, as management's -$100m cost-saving initiatives progress as planned.

Net debt declined to $1.0bn from $1.2bn, and the company is expected to reach a surplus cash position of around $500m by June 2025, highlights the broker, after receiving proceeds from the US$1.08bn Blackwater stake sale.

Ord Minnett now forecasts a 32cps dividend in FY25, noting the potential for upside given the broker's surplus cash balance projection by June 30 this year.

The Buy rating and $9.60 target are maintained.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $3.55
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Zip Co reported lower-than-expected 2Q25 group revenue of $269m versus UBS' expectations of $297m and consensus of $295m.

Total transaction value advanced 24% to $3.4bn, compared to consensus at 22% and UBS' estimate of 29%. Customers at 6.3m were broadly in line with both consensus and the broker.

US revenue rose 42% year-on-year in the December quarter to $166m, against the broker's forecast of $187m and consensus at $165m.

Management offered no guidance at the update.

UBS believes the update diverged from expectations due to a lower revenue margin but notes lower costs as a positive. Net bad debts across Australia and the US performed well on an ongoing basis, and total liquidity rose.

The analyst highlights consensus revenue forecasts for 2H25 might need to be lowered, but the cost outlook remains better than consensus.

UBS remains Buy rated with a $3.65 target price.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.38
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources