Australian Broker Call

September 22, 2016

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 11:05 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CAR - CARSALES.COM Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
GPT - GPT Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Macquarie
NUF - NUFARM Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
OFX - OZFOREX GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
S32 - SOUTH32 Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
SFR - SANDFIRE Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
ANZ  AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

Banks

Overnight Price: $27.24

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes the bank's decision to reduce the institutional and international capital is the right move but observes the market is over-stating the potential upside. Execution risks remain high.

The broker contends it is not widely acknowledged that ANZ still has a price to pay for past mistakes and this will likely be in the form of significantly lower cumulative tangible book value-per-share growth relative to major bank peers.

The broker refines earnings forecasts in light of a detailed analysis of the strategy and retains a Hold rating, raising the target to $24.00 from $22.50.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $27.24 Difference: minus $3.24 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.22, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.2, implying annual growth of -22.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.2, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP BILLITON LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $20.72

UPDATED

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Billiton has unsurprisingly cut its US shale reserves following delays to further drilling. Reserve offsets nevertheless come from Aust coal and Chilean copper, as well as Olympic Dam. The surge in coal prices has transformed BHP's earnings outlook, the broker notes.

The broker believes the company is entering a strong FY17 earnings upgrade cycle and has set its forecast 40% above consensus. Were current spot prices to be applied this number would rise to 85%.

Outperform retained, target rises to $25 from $24.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.72 Difference: $4.28
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.04, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 57.14 cents and EPS of 105.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.33 cents and EPS of 99.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.9, implying annual growth of 23.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR  CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Software & Services

Overnight Price: $11.64

Credit Suisse rates CAR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company continues to innovate and improve monetisation, Credit Suisse observes. The broker considers the offshore opportunity is long term and does not factor in significant upside in valuation.

The stock is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, given the pull back in the share price. Target is steady at $12.50.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $0.86
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 40.80 cents and EPS of 50.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.20 cents and EPS of 56.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of 10.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCL  COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $10.03

Macquarie rates CCL as Underperform (5) -

Container deposit schemes are being proposed in NSW, Qld and WA to add to exiting schemes in SA and NT. If implemented, the cost would thus be imposed on a further 65% of the population, the broker notes.

With fizzy drink volumes already declining, the broker believes the impact on Coke earnings will be potentially material. The company has a solid balance sheet and offers a reasonable yield but is overpriced in the broker's view. Underperform and $8.84 target retained.

Target price is $8.84 Current Price is $10.03 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 54.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.9, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 55.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.7, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC  CHARTER HALL GROUP

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $5.38

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall will create a new wholesale shopping centre fund, the Charter Hall Prime Retail Fund, and has also acquired 50% of Coles' head office in Melbourne. The first acquisition for the CPRF will be Campbelltown Mall in Sydney.

The broker sees the CPRF as around 2% earnings accretive but has not yet factored in the Coles HQ stake given uncertainty around the holding structure. Outperform retained, target rises to $5.68 from $5.65.

Target price is $5.68 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $0.3
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.20 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of -39.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.20 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $7.82

UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse upgrades crop production estimates for FY17, but notes that recent rain across east coast regions has increased the risk of crop damage.

Storage and logistics account for $11m of the $12m EBIT upgrade. Outperform rating and $9 target retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.82 Difference: $1.18
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 22.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 56.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.29 cents and EPS of 52.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of 88.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT  GPT

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $4.86

UPDATED

Macquarie rates GPT as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The result of Macquarie's attendance at a breakfast hosted by GPT is an upgrade to Neutral. However it's not about the Eggs Benedict.

GPT shares fell 10% in the June quarter when the REIT sector fell 2.5%, Macquarie notes. While the growth profile is still expected to slow in FY17, the stock is now offering an 11% total shareholder return on the broker's numbers. Hence the upgrade. Target unchanged at $5.16.

Target price is $5.16 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.3
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.07, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 23.60 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of -38.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.80 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.5, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD  KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing

Overnight Price: $1.96

Credit Suisse rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

FY16 results were solid and in line and Credit Suisse also notes a significant improvement in per-store inventory. This drove an improvement in cash flow and, as a result, net debt.

The broker observes a degree of self help is being undertaken to improve operations but FX headwinds and a competitive environment are likely to offset the gains.

Target price is NZ$1.98. Neutral rating retained.

Current Price is $1.96. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.15 cents and EPS of 16.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.15 cents and EPS of 18.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.49.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates KMD as Buy (1) -

FY16 results were largely in line with guidance, with gross margin expansion of 70 basis points in Australia considered the highlight. Deutsche Bank is more confident that the earnings recovery is high quality and not reflecting cost control alone.

The broker believes management has a credible strategy for pursuing low-risk offshore expansion. Buy rating retained. Target rises to NZ$2.25 from NZ$2.10.

Current Price is $1.96. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.15 cents and EPS of 16.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.08 cents and EPS of 18.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.54.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates KMD as Outperform (1) -

Kathmandu's profit result and dividend beat the broker. There were otherwise no real surprises given the August update, although earnings were driven by improved margins and reduced costs on subdued sales growth. The trick now is to improve sales, the broker suggests.

The first half earnings result will be challenged by strong comparables last year and FX headwinds, the broker notes. But this appears more than captured in the current price, hence the broker retains Outperform. Target rises to $2.20 from $1.70.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.24
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.62 cents and EPS of 16.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.16.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates KMD as Equal-weight (3) -

FY16 results were driven by a strong improvement in gross margin but Morgan Stanley expects growth to moderate in FY17 because of currency headwinds and less opportunity for cost reductions in the near term.

The broker retains an Equal-weight rating and expects the offshore expansion being unproven will take time to execute. Target is raised to $1.90 from $1.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.11 cents and EPS of 16.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.80.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MNS  MAGNIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.90

Macquarie rates MNS as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

The broker has initiated coverage of Magnis Resources with an Outperform rating and $1.70 target. The company boasts a graphite resource of exceptional purity at its Nachu project in Tanzania which, unlike most graphite sources, will require limited purification.

Pricing remains a risk, given graphite is now swept up in the new technology market with Lithium batteries only one use. This will mean Magnis will be beholden to the supply-demand swings and roundabouts being experienced in these commodities at present, the broker warns

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.805
If MNS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF  NUFARM LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $8.71

Citi rates NUF as Neutral (3) -

Citi saw Nufarm releasing a financial report meeting or exceeding all the key targets, so it was "strong". The analysts lifted EBIT forecasts but with no impact on net profit estimates due to higher FX hedging and interest expenses.

Citi analysts note management's Get Fit program is ahead of schedule and believe the combination of ongoing progress in Latam, favorable early seasonal conditions in Australia and self-help sets Nufarm up for another year of "solid growth". Neutral rating retained. Price target jumps to $8.95 from $8.05.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $0.24
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 47.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 56.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates NUF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

FY16 results surpassed expectations with cost savings ahead of schedule. Credit Suisse upgrades earnings estimates and believes the stock's growth profile now supports an upgrade in rating to Outperform from Neutral.

Industry consolidation is also expected to create an opportunity for Nufarm. The broker adds $1 a share of value and assumes Nufarm can acquire an asset at good value, with management expecting a deal could take 12-18 months. Target rises to $9.70 from $8.20.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $0.99
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 53.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 65.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Sell (5) -

FY16 results were mixed with underlying net profit broadly in line with expectations but operating cash flow 17% below.

Deutsche Bank reduces earnings forecasts by 4-10% to reflect the net impact of lower earnings in Australia, Europe and seeds, partly offset by higher earnings in South and North America and Asia.

The broker retains a Sell rating and $6.25 target.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: minus $2.46 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Nufarm's profit fell short of the broker but was ahead of consensus. Underlying earnings were solid and ahead of the broker, thanks to better than expected cost reductions and a good performance in South America.

A strong FY17 is expected as cost cuts continue, pressure on A&NZ volumes and margins reverses and finance cost pressures begin to moderate. Outperform retained, target rises to $9.50 from $8.95.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $0.79
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.60 cents and EPS of 51.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 62.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates NUF as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

FY16 results were ahead of estimates but the Australian result disappointed Morgans. The broker expects the company will benefit from the first decent summer cropping season in Australia for four years and South America is set for a bigger season.

The broker believes the stock now has a much stronger growth profile and through internal improvements is intent on lifting returns to shareholders over time.

The broker considers the stock attractively priced for its growth profile and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target rises to $9.65 from $8.60.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $0.94
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates NUF as Hold (3) -

FY16 results were ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates.  Management remains confident it can deliver the balance of the benefits from its performance improvement program.

The broker notes the operating earnings and margins of the Latin American business improved substantially but the operating environment has been costly.

Nufarm has intentionally focused on its higher margin products in Australasia and this has resulted in earnings being affected by low fixed cost recoveries.

It seems to the broker the balance needs to be fine tuned to lift utilisation rates and ensure profitability is maximised. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $9.10 from $8.20.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $0.39
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -

UBS considers the FY16 result credible in tough conditions. Cost saving initiatives were better than expected.

The broker considers the reduced costs and cash flow conversion as mostly sustainable, which underpins the re-rating over the past 12 months.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $10.00 from $8.50.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $1.29
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX  OZFOREX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $2.11

Macquarie rates OFX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie still sees Ozforex' "Accelerate" target of doubling revenues by 2019 as ambitious and offering risk, while offering significant upside if achieved. The problem is that outside of GBP, volatility has been subsiding in currency markets, the broker notes, and this will make the job more difficult.

On that basis Macquarie has cut its target to $2.30 from $2.60 and downgraded to Neutral.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.19
If OFX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.31.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.18.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $4.87

UPDATED

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy has announced a change of management but not a change of structure. This means there will be no demerger of up/downstream businesses just yet, and thus investors are stuck with the worst of both worlds, the broker suggests.

The new management team is expected to address the demerger issue again in 12 months. In the meantime the focus is on debt reduction through non-core asset divestment. The broker retains Outperform. Target falls to $5.83 from $6.37.

Target price is $5.83 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.96
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 71.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of 76.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation

Overnight Price: $2.28

UPDATED

Citi rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Citi sees the A3 contract loss as further evidence new management of Patrick needs to deliver improvements in operational performance that improve service levels to customers. They believe pricing pressure at Patrick will only increase.

Having said so, Citi's positive view for the years ahead seems to be built on the Moorebank project. Estimates have been reduced on average by 2.8% over FY17-FY19. Price target falls to $2.86 (was $2.98). Buy.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.58
If QUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 25.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $2.38

Morgans rates S32 as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The stock is leveraged to rising coal and manganese prices which support estimates and Morgans increases forecasts but considers the upside for the stock is reduced because of the surge in the share price.

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add and lifts the target to $2.52 from $2.42, preferring to wait to accumulate on weakness.

Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.14
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 16.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.89 cents and EPS of 21.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Materials

Overnight Price: $5.42

Morgans rates SFR as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Higher long-term gold prices have partly offset lower near-term copper price assumptions, resulting in a slight reduction in  the valuation and this forces Morgans to downgrade to Hold from Add.

The broker prefers to sit out any volatility in US dollar commodities post the upcoming US Federal Reserve decision on rates on September 21. Target is reduced to $5.91 from $6.05.

Target price is $5.91 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.49
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.4, implying annual growth of 43.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $9.00

Citi rates SGM as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts note management has announced the sale of two metal recycling facilities in Detroit and Toledo, which is consistent with the strategy of divestment of non-core assets.

According to the analysts, this now leaves just three small facilities out five underperforming assets to be dealt with in FY17. Citi analysts grab the opportunity to highlight their expectations are 22% ahead of consensus. Buy. Target $11.20.

Citi analysts remain of the view that market consensus will be chasing upgrades through 1H17.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $2.2
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.55, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 59.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of -8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 75.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of 29.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Credit Suisse rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

The company has sold two North American facilities and has largely completed its exit from the loss-making central region.

Credit Suisse notes scrap prices have weakened recently, reflecting lower steel prices and weaker demand.

The broker suspects the recent US re-bar anti-dumping initiatives could increase domestic demand and potentially reduce the scrap available for the company's export facing business.

Neutral rating and $9.30 target retained.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $0.3
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.55, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.13 cents and EPS of 50.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of -8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.12 cents and EPS of 56.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of 29.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates SGM as Sell (5) -

The company has sold two metal recycling facilities in North America. The terms have not been disclosed. Deutsche Bank believes two facilities remain to be divested or closed.

The balance sheet is robust and the broker considers the sales provide further evidence that management is making progress on its strategy but that the industry structure is not supporting rational behaviour.

Deutsche Bank retains a Sell rating. Target is $8.02.

Target price is $8.02 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.55, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of -8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of 29.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPM  TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication Services

Overnight Price: $8.63

Morgan Stanley rates TPM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reduces FY17-19 EBITDA estimates by 3-5%. The broker is cognisant of the higher competitive risk in the sector but considers the long-term growth profile is still attractive.

Retail broadband margins are set to start falling in FY17, earlier than the broker initially expected. Overweight rating and In-Line sector view retained. Target is reduced to $10.75 from $11.40.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: $2.12
If TPM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.1, implying annual growth of 9.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VOC  VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED

Telecommunication Services

Overnight Price: $6.09

Deutsche Bank rates VOC as Buy (1) -

The chief financial officer has resigned but will remain with the company until a successor is chosen. Deutsche Bank does not believe this resignation has been caused by any negative news flow.

The broker envisages strong earnings growth potential as the company stands to benefit from merger synergies. A Buy rating is retained. Target is $12.01.

Target price is $12.01 Current Price is $6.09 Difference: $5.92
If VOC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.40, suggesting upside of 51.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.3, implying annual growth of 113.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.2, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
ANZ - ANZ BANKING GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $27.24
BHP - BHP BILLITON Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $20.72
CAR - CARSALES.COM Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $11.64
CCL - COCA-COLA AMATIL Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.03
CHC - CHARTER HALL Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.38
GNC - GRAINCORP Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.82
GPT - GPT Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.86
KMD - KATHMANDU Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.96
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.96
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.96
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.96
MNS - MAGNIS RESOURCES Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.90
NUF - NUFARM Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $8.71
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.71
Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $8.71
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.71
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $8.71
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.71
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $8.71
OFX - OZFOREX GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.11
ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.87
QUB - QUBE HOLDINGS Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.28
S32 - SOUTH32 Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.38
SFR - SANDFIRE Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.42
SGM - SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.00
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $9.00
Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $9.00
TPM - TPG TELECOM Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $8.63
VOC - VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $6.09
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

16

3. Hold

10

5. Sell

3

Thursday 22 September 2016

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.