Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Sell (5) -

Citi notes 29Metals has announced annualised June quarter results which are sitting at the lower end of guidance, with production expected to be weighted into 2H2025.

Golden Grove experienced another seismic event after quarter end but managed to breakeven over the period. Water at Capricorn Copper has subsided, but a restart at this stage appears unlikely, according to the analyst.

Net debt stood at $19m, with a decline in group cash of -$33m over the previous quarter, excluding final insurance funds, which are expected to bring total cash to $187m from $166m in the March quarter.

Citi continues to view further liquidity raising events as likely, given the miner's high exposure to base metals. A Sell rating is retained based on the broker's negative view on copper, which is forecast to fall below US$9k/t. The target lifts to 16c from 15c.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

29Metals' 2Q25 production fell short of Macquarie's and consensus forecasts, with copper and gold production -13% below the broker's estimates and zinc missing by -26%.

Raw operating costs were -18% below consensus and -20% below the broker's forecast on lower mining, processing, and treatment and refining costs.

The company maintained FY25 production guidance, and while it flagged a 2H bias, the broker highlights strong 2H will be needed to meet the midpoint of the guidance.

An interesting change was the pushback of FY25 capex to FY26 at the Gossan Valley project at Golden Grove. Overall, a -3% cut to the broker's forecast for FY25 EBITDA.

Outperform. Target unchanged at 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.07
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AAI as Neutral (3) -

UBS describes Alcoa Corporation’s second quarter as solid, with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of US$313m in line with consensus and EPS beating by 7%.

Free cash flow of US$357m exceeded expectations due to lower capex and a large working capital release, explain the analysts, reducing net debt to US$1.7bn from US$2.06bn in Q1.

UBS sees modest upside to the third quarter consensus earnings forecast based on spot prices and updated guidance, with a key catalyst being potential exemptions from Canadian aluminium tariffs under S232.

While the broker sees tariff removal as a net positive, delays to bauxite licences in WA may impact alumina output from 2027, while ongoing cash burn at San Ciprian remains a concern.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and an unchanged $50 target price on Alcoa Corp.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $44.54 Difference: $5.46
If AAI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has completed its review and states no legislative changes at this stage on regulation of airport services.

Macquarie highlights the outcome confirms the existing ID protocol and expects ComCom to continue to seek to optimise the existing ID regime rather than replace it.

No change to the Outperform rating for Auckland International Airport, with passenger volumes expected to continue to recover towards pre-covid levels. The target sits at NZ$8.55.

Current Price is $7.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AIA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects Auckland International Airport to report FY25 underlying net profit of NZ$307m vs guidance of NZ$290-320m.

The broker will look for FY26 underlying net profit guidance where its forecast current sits at NZ$326m vs the consensus of NZ$324m.

Regulatory updates are seen as a minor catalyst.

Equal-weight. Target price NZ$8.35. Industry View: In-line.

Current Price is $7.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Ahead of Atlas Arteria's 1H25 result on August 27, Morgan Stanley is forecasting FY25 dividend of 40c/share.

The broker expects some upside from traffic trends, but expects little update on French capitalisation and Virginia recapitalisation.

Equal-weight. Target price 5.26. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.26 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $0.09
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

In a preview of infrastructure stocks under its coverage ahead of the August results season, Morgan Stanley's less preferred name is Aurizon Holdings. The broker sees downside risk for FY26 earnings guidance.

The analyst estimates FY26 EBITDA of $1.73bn vs consensus of $1.72bn.

Underweight. Target unchanged at $3.03. Industry View: In-Line

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes BETR Entertainment has reiterated its bid for PointsBet Holdings ((PBH)) at 3.81 shares for each PointsBet share, with the aim of conducting up to an $80m share buyback, which could rise to $200m if it achieves 90% ownership of PointsBet.

BETR has lifted expected cost synergies to $44.9m, a rise of around 8%, with management reconfirming a good track record on this front.

The company also announced a trading update for FY25, pointing to earnings (EBITDA) of $6.9m–$7.1m compared to the broker's estimate of $6.6m, due to annualised cost synergies of $25.9m from BETR and TopSport deals.

Buy rating retained with an unchanged target price of 46c.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.16
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights BHP Group finished FY25 on a strong note, with 4Q copper, iron ore and coal beating its forecasts. The company expects net debt of US$13bn, lower than the broker's US$14.8bn estimate.

The company also flagged unit cost is on track to meet FY25 guidance for Escondida, Spence, Copper SA and Western Australia Iron Ore, and revised guidance at BMA.

FY26 production guidance was largely flat, and first production at the Jansen potash project is now expected in mid-2027, with capex estimates revised higher on inflation and other pressures.

Buy. Target unchanged at $43.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $39.11 Difference: $3.89
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.23, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BML as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners provides a positive outlook on Boab Metals, highlighting the quality and advancement of its Sorby Hills project in Western Australia.

The broker notes the project offers one of the largest silver resources on the ASX and views the updated FEED study as confirming robust financial metrics, including strong project returns and low operating costs.

The analysts describe favourable thematic tailwinds for silver, citing both the gold correlation and rising solar-related demand, which has driven the metal into supply deficit.

The broker also suggests lead is underappreciated and expects demand growth to persist through 2030, countering common misconceptions about declining industrial use.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy, High Risk rating and 40c target.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.21
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Accumulate (2) -

CAR Group pre-released key FY25 figures along with the announcement of the current CEO's departure, and Morgans notes the FY25 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and net profit estimates were all in line with its forecasts.

The broker made minor changes to forecasts, largely small downgrades to online advertising revenue that resulted in small downward revisions to FY25-27 EPS forecasts.

The company's current CFO, William Elliott will replace CEO Cameron McIntyre when he leaves on August 15, and the broker highlights the succession highlights quality of management developed internally over recent years.

Accumulate. Target unchanged at $40.80.

Target price is $40.80 Current Price is $36.35 Difference: $4.45
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.57, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

CAR Group marginally exceeded FY25 revenue and profit consensus forecasts, driven by a shift from private to higher-margin dealer volumes despite softer Australian inventory levels, explains UBS.

While the broker remains confident in the outlook for Australia and Brazil, it highlights potential FY26 challenges tied to the uncertain US macro environment and possible headwinds for Trader Interactive.

Management has reiterated FY25 guidance with revenue of $1,144m, earnings of $640m, and adjusted profit of $378m, implying minor upgrades to consensus. 

The CEO transition was also announced, with CFO William Elliot set to succeed Cameron McIntyre as MD/CEO from August 15.

UBS raises its price target to $46.00 from $45.00 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $36.35 Difference: $9.65
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.57, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS maintains a Buy rating on CSL, citing solid underlying EPS growth and valuation support.

The broker notes the stock is trading at 20 times forward P/E and offering a three-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%. The $310 target is unchanged.

The analysts warn of elevated risk/reward in FY26, particularly from potential US policy changes such as the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rule and pharmaceutical tariffs. These could impact up to 22% of FY27 earnings (EBIT) if unmitigated, highlights the broker.

UBS sees potential downside to Seqirus earnings, forecasting a -9% decline in FY26, driven by weaker flu vaccine sales and lower avian flu contributions.

More positively, the analysts expect 160bps of earnings margin expansion through lower Behring cost of goods sold (COGS) and modest R&D savings.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $248.39 Difference: $61.61
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $318.04, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CYL as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans updated its model for Catalyst Metals ahead of the June quarterly, with the biggest change being unit cost estimates for both FY25 and FY26, and capex for FY25.

Revenue forecast for FY25 declined by -1% while FY26 was left unchanged. The broker is forecasting FY25 production of 105koz, at the low end of guidance and vs consensus of 106koz.

Cost forecast for FY25 lifted to $2,433/oz from $2,390/oz and compares with the consensus of $2,449/oz.

Target cut to $6.93 from $7.15. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $6.93 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $2.22
If CYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades DroneShield to Hold from Buy due to the re-rating of listed peers, both domestically and globally, which is viewed as overdone, with risks to the stock price due to valuation.

The analyst notes an additional $9.7m contract from a LatAm customer and a two-year $11.7m R&D contract with a Five Eyes Department of Defence, on top of the $61m order announced in June 25, bringing the estimated total contracted revenue for 2025 to around $175m.

The company is investing -$13m in a multi-year lease and fit-out for an additional Sydney facility, which is flagged to open in December and lift annual production to $900m by mid-2026.

Bell Potter's earnings forecasts have been raised for longer-term revenue, with a "material" rise in operating expenses as DroneShield continues to scale its operations at a faster-than-anticipated rate.

The target price is raised to $3.80 from $2.60.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.29
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades Endeavour Group to Equal-weight from Overweight, as the Australian liquor market remains challenged amid increased promotions over 4Q25 and ongoing sluggish sales.

The analyst sees the group failing to increase market share and lowers the 2H25 retail forecast, now sitting -3% below consensus, with stronger hotel performance noted as a possible offsetting factor.

Morgan Stanley also highlights media reports that the group is assessing the postponement of aspects of the OneEndeavour program, which could elevate market uncertainty around strategic direction while lowering cost estimates for FY26.

The target price slips to $4.60 from $5.10. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.47
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights a notable decline in consumer spending on alcohol over the June quarter, according to the latest data, compared to a year ago, with fewer people shopping at major retailers such as Dan Murphy's and BWS, owned by Endeavour Group.

A survey from Moments in Alcohol revealed a decline of -10% annually in spending per consumer at Dan Murphy's, while BWS rose 1.1%, which actually compares well against a decline of -14.8% for Coles Group's Vintage Cellars, -13.3% for First Choice, and -1.4% for LiquorLand.

The analyst has lowered EPS estimates by -2.7% and -6% for FY25 and FY26, with a Hold rating and $3.80 target unchanged.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners assesses strong assay results from FireFly Metals’ Green Bay Copper-Gold Project, including 11.6m at 9.3% copper equivalent and 14.6m at 6.7% copper equivalent.

Drilling continues to support a significant Mineral Resource upgrade in the September quarter, highlights the broker, which should underpin a minimum 15-year mine life at 2mtpa.

The upcoming update should lift Measured and Indicated tonnes to 50-70% of the total, with further growth likely, suggests the broker,  given the step-out drilling and recent Down Hole EM surveys extending mineralisation by over 700m.

Shaw reduces its target price to $1.65 from $1.90 following the recent equity raisings and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.52
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting upside of 41.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMD as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights Genesis Minerals' June quarterly showed a record 4Q, with production of 61.47koz and $2,499/oz cost pointing to a beat on FY25 guidance.

Net mine cash flow of $95m highlighted a strong operational performance, commentary suggests, and net cash position was $187m after $100m debt drawdown for Laverton acquisition.

The company is expected to provide FY26 guidance in the September quarter. FY25 net profit guidance of $210-230m is in line with consensus.

The broker notes Tower Hill is on track for first ore in FY28, and mill expansion studies are continuing at Leonora and Laverton.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $4.40.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.45
If GMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) -

Genesis Minerals reported 4Q25 production of 61.5koz, which met both Macquarie's and consensus expectations. All-in sustaining costs for the period were around 7% above both the analyst's and consensus estimates.

FY25 costs of $2,398/oz were within guidance, with higher gold prices leading to higher royalty costs, while stockpiles rose 23koz to 66koz at around 1.6g/t over the quarter.

Management offered no FY26 guidance but intends to release it in 1Q26. The company is considering staged mill expansions across both processing plants, with Tower Hill to feed the Leonora plant rather than trucking to Laverton.

A rise in lease liabilities, which increased $29m on the previous quarter, resulted in a decline in net cash to $40m (excluding bullion).

The target price lowers by -4% to $5.50, with no change in the Outperform rating.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $1.55
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMD as Hold (3) -

Genesis Minerals’ June quarter result was slightly softer due to higher-than-expected costs, notes Ord Minnett. Costs (AISC) missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -3% and -8%, respectively.

Record quarterly production of 61.5koz was in line with the broker's forecast, but FY25 profit guidance of $210–230m came in below Ord Minnett’s $236m estimate. Net cash of $141m was also slightly below expectations after $100m in borrowings.

The broker sees upcoming FY26 guidance in September as the next key catalyst, potentially signalling accelerated growth via new deposit integration and mill expansions.

Ord Minnett lowers its target price to $4.35 from $4.50 and maintains a Hold rating.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.4
If GMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Hold, High Risk (3) -

Genesis Minerals delivered record June quarter production of 61,469oz gold at costs of $2,499/oz, taking FY25 output to 214,311oz at $2,398/oz, highlights Shaw and Partners.

This result exceeded both guidance for 190-210koz at $2,200–$2,400/oz and the broker’s forecast of 209.4koz at $2,466/oz.

Cash ended the year at $286.9m after the -$250m Laverton Gold acquisition, explain the analysts, with ore stockpiles rising to 65.9koz gold, representing $312m in latent revenue at spot.

FY25 unaudited statutory earnings are guided between $210m and $230m, just below the broker’s $238m estimate.

Shaw updates its gold price assumptions to US$3,250 for 2H25 and retains a Hold, High Risk rating. The price target has lifted to $4.10 from $4.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.15
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Genesis Minerals delivered steady June quarter production of 61.5koz, slightly below the UBS estimate of 64koz but ahead of FY25 guidance of 190-210koz at 214koz.

Costs were elevated, with June quarter AISC of $2,499/oz exceeding UBS’s forecast of $2,252/oz, reflecting sector-wide inflationary pressures.

The broker forecasts FY26 output of 258koz at $2,665/oz, ahead of the 235koz target from Genesis’s March plan, but sees consensus yet to fully reflect rising cost assumptions.

The analysts highlight upside from Tower Hill’s development and staged plant expansions, estimating combined capex of $450m could lift production to 450kozpa by FY30.

UBS cuts its price target by -5% to $5.20 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $1.25
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Neutral (3) -

The new information in Gold Road Resources' June quarterly was the cost of $2,928/oz which was -2% below Macquarie's forecast but missed consensus by -17%. The broker suspects this was due to consensus not being updated after the company pre-reported earlier this month.

The company updated FY25 guidance but the broker believes this is less relevant to shareholders, given the takeover scheme is progressing. The company expects FY25 production at the lower end of 325-355koz guidance, and cost at the upper end of the $2,400-2,600/oz guidance.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.1
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GYG as Neutral (3) -

UBS adjusts earnings forecasts for Guzman y Gomez, slightly lifting FY25 EBITDA by 0.3% but reducing FY26 and FY27 forecasts by -1.9% and -2.7%, respectively, due to lower margins in Australia and higher US losses.

While the broker notes strong same-store sales growth and positive franchisee returns, it sees limited operating leverage due to a mix shift toward lower-margin dayparts and delivery. Ongoing investment in systems and value offerings are also weighing.

US operations are expected to see peak earnings losses in FY26 at -$14.7m, with current losses already tracking above consensus expectations.

UBS reduces its 12-month price target to $31 from $34 and retains a Neutral rating on Guzman y Gomez.

Separately, the UBS July Australian Retail & Consumer Store Network Tracker shows the Guzman y Gomez Australia restaurant network numbers 226 locations as at July 15, up 15 since 3Q25.

The company has had a strong start to FY26, highlight the analysts, with two restaurants already opened. Management has guided to 32 gross store restaurant openings in FY26.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.32 Difference: $3.68
If GYG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.97, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

Following Hub24's 4Q update, Morgan Stanley raises its price target on Hub24 to $115 from $80 and maintains an Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Morgan Stanley highlights a high-quality platform offering investors durable multi-year growth, driven by strong net revenue retention (NRR).

The broker sees NRR as a key indicator of structural growth, underpinned by rising adviser engagement, increasing client balances, and product expansion, all of which improve customer stickiness and monetisation.

The analysts explain the company benefits from three clear NRR drivers: increased spend per user through growth in customer balances and rising platform adoption by advisers.

New product integration provides another NRR driver via Class, MyProsperity, and HubConnect, explains Morgan Stanley.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $102.41 Difference: $12.59
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $92.43, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFT as Resume at Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has resumed coverage of Infratil with an Outperform rating and target price of NZ$12.32.

The broker has factored in the increased stake in CDC data centres (now around 50%) in its valuation following the February 2025 purchase, noting its equity value rose 62% in the 12-month period to March.

The analyst is assuming a -25% discount (no change) on the Longroad Energy stake and trimmed the discount on Gurin, Galileo and Mint renewables to -15% from -20% earlier.

No change to earnings forecasts.

Current Price is $10.46. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IKE as Buy, High Risk (1) -

ikeGPS Group's $20m equity raising will help fund the development of two new high-value subscription products, expand sales and marketing, and strengthen its balance sheet, oberves Shaw and Partners.

PoleForeman is now nearing $10m in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and has been widely adopted by major North American utilities, highlights the broker. It's felt management can repeat this success with its upcoming offerings.

Next-gen modules are expected to double subscription revenue per seat and deliver over 5 times productivity gains, with positive revenue impact forecast from FY28.

The broker expects stronger revenue growth in FY28-29 and sees the strengthened balance sheet supporting strategic flexibility.

Shaw raises its target price to $1.30 from $1.20 and reiterates a Buy, High Risk rating.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.37
If IKE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INA as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its forecasts for Ingenia Communities following a recent VCAT ruling against Lifestyle Communities ((LIC)).

The ruling found deferred management fees (DMFs) in residential service agreements were not legally enforceable in Victoria.

Management at Ingenia disclosed DMFs represent only around 1% of its investment property valuation and have contributed just $3m to revenue over the past three years.

Ingenia does not sell new homes with DMFs, explains the broker, and noted the affected Victorian communities were acquired with existing agreements.

However, the four sites in question represent about 60% of its Victorian portfolio and 8% of total homes under management, leading Ord Minnett to factor in lower rental income and margin from FY26 and assume potential DMF refunds.

Ord Minnett trims its price target to $5.40 from $5.50 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: $0.09
If INA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.00, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Mount Gibson Iron ((MGX)) has acquired a 50% stake in the Central Tanami Gold Project, where Metals X has a minor interest through Tanami Gold ((TAM))

The broker highlights Mount Gibson Iron is keen to reach a final investment decision on the project within the next 12-18 months and bodes well for the project's outlook, and thus for Metals X.

The analyst considered the potential for the consolidation of the companies but concluded this is unlikely.

Buy. Target unchanged at 80c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.16
If MLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QUB as Equal-weight (3) -

In a preview of stocks under coverage in the infrastructure sector ahead of the August reporting season, Morgan Stanley's preferred stocks are Qube Holdings and Auckland International Airport ((AIA)).

For Qube Holdings, the broker will look for FY26 adjusted EPS guidance vs its forecast of 18.3c. The company's guidance for FY25 net profit and adjusted EPS growth is at least 5%, and the analyst is forecasting 6%.

Target unchanged at $4.20. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

National new listings declined for a third consecutive month in June, down -3% year-on-year, though the rate of decline improved from May and April, observes Citi.

The broker estimates new FY25 listings rose 0.7% year-on-year for REA Group, slightly below management's guidance range of 1–2% and consensus of 2%.

June capital city listings were 3% above the seven-year average, but regional and urban areas both declined -3% year-on-year, with Sydney and Melbourne down -5% and -4%, respectively.

Citi sees geographic mix as neutral for June but a modest drag on REA Group for the fourth quarter, in line with expectations.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and $275 target.

Target price is $275.00 Current Price is $237.71 Difference: $37.29
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.86, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners is due to report FY25 results on August 25, with a FUM update due at the end of July. Performance fees, announced on July 3, are expected to be around $35m in 1H2025, compared to Bell Potter's previous forecast of $17m in April.

If current performance is maintained, the analyst highlights the company could generate notably higher performance fees in 2H2025, which are assumed to be recognised in 2026.

The broker also draws a comparison to the L1 Capital into Platinum Asset Management ((PTM)) merger with the reversal of Regal into VGI Partners in 2022. Currently, the L1/Platinum merger will have a higher market cap than Regal but be less profitable.

No change to the Buy rating, and Regal is viewed as more attractive than Platinum, which is also Buy rated with a 60c target.

The target rises to $3.55 from $3.35.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.98
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter explains almond prices have collapsed following a better-than-expected USDA crop, with aggregate US almond prices down some -25% since the May 2025 peak and implied AUD prices falling by circa -26%.

Select Harvests has stated it has priced around 75% of the FY25 crop, suggesting the remainder is exposed to the new pricing, which implies to the broker a FY25 price result of around $9.80/kg, with the spot price currently sitting at $8.50–$8.60/kg.

The analyst has lowered Select Harvests' earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -10% for FY25 and -44% for FY26, with an accompanying downgrade in the target price to $5.30 from $6.05.

No change to the Buy rating.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $1.38
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests reaffirmed its 2025 almond crop forecast following the release of the USDA's 2025 objective forecast for almond production, which was 7% higher vs May.

Ord Minnett notes almond prices have been softening since the May update and fell further after the latest USDA update. But the broker expects the company to deliver on the FY25 average price guidance of $10.35/kg.

The broker remains of the view global demand will exceed supply based on a five-year outlook.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.65.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $1.73
If SHV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHV as Buy (1) -

While almond prices have declined since the release of the California Objective Estimate on July 10, around 75% of Select Harvests’ 2025 crop is already contracted, highlights UBS.

The broker views the Objective Estimate as optimistic, aligning with its own channel checks.

Management has reaffirmed its 2025 crop forecast at 25.25kmt.

The -25% share price decline since May for Select Harvests appears overdone to UBS.

Unchanged Buy rating and $5.30 target.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $1.38
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners assesses Santana Minerals has reported strong assay results from infill drilling at the northern extensions of the Rise and Shine deposit, including 21.7m at 4.1g/t gold and 6.4m at 8.2g/t gold.

The drilling has extended the high-grade domain by 60m, notes the broker. This is expected to support future resource category upgrades, reserve conversion, and mine life extensions for the underground component outlined in the recent pre feasibility study.

The analysts highlight regulatory tailwinds from New Zealand’s Fast-track Approvals Act, which is designed to accelerate approvals for nationally significant projects like Bendigo-Ophir.

The broker expects full development approval by year-end, with a strong cash position of $55.4m supporting ongoing activities.

Shaw reiterates a Buy, High Risk rating and maintains its $1.36 target price on Santana Minerals.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.77
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Santos' June quarter production of 22.2MMboe and revenue of US$1.3bn beat the consensus. Free cash flow in 1H25 was US$1.1bn, beating the broker's forecast for two consecutive quarters.

The company narrowed FY25 production guidance to 90-95MMboe, which resulted in the broker lifting its estimate to 93.2MMboe from 92.5MMboe.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 6% and for FY26 by 3% on higher production and lower exploration write-off.

Target cut to $8.60 from $8.65 as the broker now assumes a higher dividend in FY25, which will be deducted from the XRG/Carlyle takeover offer.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $0.83
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley flags a "muted" reaction to Santos' June quarter update, with production expected at 22.2mboe, a rise of 1% on the prior quarter and up 3% compared to Morgan Stanley's estimate of 2% growth.

Cooper flood impacts offset a successful well intervention in WA, the broker states.

Management lowered the top end of 2025 production guidance to 90–95mboe versus 90–97mboe previously, and unit production costs to US$7–US$7.4/boe from US$7–US$7.05/boe.

No change to Equal-weight rating with an $8.88 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $1.11
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights Santos' 2Q25 production beat its forecast by 1.7% and consensus by 1.9%, and revenue beat by 4.1% and 6.3% vs its estimate and consensus, respectively.

Cooper basin production is expected to be weaker than expected, prompting a lowering in the FY25 guidance to 90-95MMboe from 90-97MMboe, but the broker notes consensus was already at the lower end.

The analyst lowered the production cost forecast for Barossa and Cooper basin to reflect a lower cost guidance, lifted the 2025 capex estimate slightly and assumes first gas for Barossa in 3Q25. EPS forecast for FY25 and FY26 increases by 1%.

Buy. Target unchanged at $7.90.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $0.13
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is forecasting FY25 dividend of 65c/share for Transurban Group, with a payout at 106%. For FY26, the broker is estimating 60c/share at 107% payout vs the consensus of 68.6c.

The broker will look for updates on construction, overseas developments in the US and NZ, and NSW toll road negotiations at the FY25 result.

Target price unchanged at $13.66. Equal-weight unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $13.66 Current Price is $13.57 Difference: $0.09
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.91, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VGN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiated coverage of Virgin Australia with a Buy rating and target price of $3.90.

The broker believes the airline comes with a simplified portfolio and strategy in reincarnated form and is better than its previously listed life.

One of the key positives is focus on domestic and short-haul routes, which the broker believes offer lower risk and higher return than long-distance international routes.

Other positives include no more Tiger Airways, single fleet type, lower gearing and a differentiated offering vs domestic competitors.

The broker notes the stock is currently trading at a discount to Qantas Airways ((QAN)) despite a stronger growth outlook and a better portfolio mix.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.69
If VGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.62, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources