Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

AMP reported considerably better than expected 1H24 earnings according to Citi.

Net profit came in above the broker's forecast and consensus by 11% and Citi is enthused by AMP's long-term solution to its advice business, which is expected to be transformed by the end of 2024.

Management highlighted the cost out of -$660m is tracking to be met by the end of 2024 with lower costs for platforms, superannuation and investments. The latter also reduced net outflows.

AMP Bank reported a higher net interest margin of 114 basis points, the analyst notes. The interim 2c dividend, 20% franked, was as expected. 

AMP announced a partnership with Entireti and AZ Next Generation Advisory, which Citi views as a good deal for it to obtain value for its shareholdings.

Buy rating and $1.25 target unchanged.There are no changes to EPS forecasts.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Following a review of AMP's 1H result (which beat expectations), Macquarie is beginning to see signs of stabilisation in the underlying business. Management's FY24 guidance was largely unchanged.

For the Platform, underlying profit was $54m (versus $44m in H1) driven by asset under management (AUM) growth and cost discipline, explains the broker. A -6.4% reduction in controllable costs was largely due to reduced employee costs.

The target rises to $1.26 from $1.16. Neutral.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target for AMP to $1.48 from $1.29 and upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight following 1H results. Industry view: In-Line.

The broker suggests the current share price represents a compelling buy-case based on valuation and a greater than 30% FY23-25 forecast EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

In summary, the analysts highlight management is achieving consistently on costs, revenue margins and flows, while reducing one-offs and presenting a clearer path to break-even in Advice.

Target price is $1.48 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.2
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

UBS describes AMP's H1 result as "better than feared", with Platforms stealing the show and the bank business slightly outperforming too. The result included a restructure plus the divestment of Advice activities, the broker points out.

UBS expects the ongoing simplification and capital return story will provide support to the share price, also noting the company has committed to completing the remaining $137m of Tranche 3 capital return (5cps).

The broker's Sell rating remains in place and reflects concerns for the company's bank/wealth strategy and operational outlook, the broker explains. Target lifts to $1.07 from 98c.

Target price is $1.07 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Underperform (5) -

In a stock-specific outcome, believes Macquarie, ANZ Bank's capital position improved by around $1.5bn relative to the broker's forecast. Potential capital benefits for other banks are expected to be smaller.

For ANZ, there was a reduced capital impact from the Suncorp acquisition and capital movements in Q3 of 2024, notes the analyst.

The $26.50 target and Underperform rating are maintained.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $27.65 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.32, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Underweight (5) -

Following the completion of the Suncorp Bank acquisition, management at ANZ Bank announced it would reduce the CET1 ratio by circa -105bps, which was around -18bps less than it expected in May 2024, explains Morgan Stanley.

In a positive development, according to Morgan Stanley, the bank now anticipates a circa 30bps improvement in the CET1 ratio from changes to mortgage risk weights and amendments to APRA's capital framework.

These adjustments allow capital flexibility and increase the probability management announces another buyback after completion of the current $2bn on-market buyback.

Underweight. Target $26.20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $27.65 Difference: minus $1.45 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.32, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCP as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades its rating for Credit Corp to Outperform from Neutral after the recent share price retracement. There are no forecast changes and the analyst's $18.01 target is unchanged.

In a positive read-through for the company, the broker highlights US operating conditions for competitors PRA and Encore continue to improve with supply, pricing, purchases and collections showing positive trends.

Target price is $18.01 Current Price is $15.21 Difference: $2.8
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.26, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes the Charter Hall Long WALE REIT FY24 results show EPS meeting expectations, in line with guidance, while net property income grew at a forecast rate of 4.7%.

The broker highlights higher operating expenses and finance costs.

Management's FY25 EPS guidance of 25c is slightly lower than the Citi forecast of 26.2c, with the REIT continuing its asset divestment program.

Net gearing has declined to 37.6% from 41.2% and asset values fell -9.8% against June 2023.

An additional $50m buyback was announced and Citi believes the result will be viewed as a "negative" for Charter Hall ((CHC)).

Neutral rating and $3.50 target unchanged. There are no changes to the analyst's earning forecasts.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.01
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT reported FY24 results, provided FY25 operating EPS guidance -5% below Macquarie's forecast, and announced a $50m buyback (noting an earnings accretive impact).

For FY24, the broker highlights balance sheet gearing fell by -4.4ppts half-on-half to 30.1% and operational metrics remain solid.

Macquarie's target edges up by 1c to $3.34. Neutral.

Target price is $3.34 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CLW as Equal-weight (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's FY24 profit of $188m was in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. Due to $762m of asset sales throughout the financial year, gearing is now more comfortable at 39.8% (pro-forma), highlight the analysts.

Despite a decline in the debt balance, FY25 debt remains 67% hedged but FY26 is now 50% hedged, down from 25% as at the end of 2023, explains the broker.

Equal-weight. Target is $4.08. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $4.08 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.59
If CLW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Hold (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's FY24 result was in line with consensus expectations. Operating EPS and FY25 guidance also met Ord Minnett's forecasts. Operating EPS fell by -7.1% on the previous corresponding period due to rising debt costs.

Look-through gearing fell to a more comfortable 37.6%, notes the broker, following completion of $762m worth of asset sales. It's felt further asset sales are unlikely as debt is well clear of covenants.

Management announced a $50m share buyback.

Ord Minnett's Hold rating remains and the target eases to $3.45 from $3.62.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

First half adjusted earnings (EBITDA) and profit for Coronado Global Resources were largely in line with Bell Potter's forecasts and management's 2024 guidance was reaffirmed. The latter implies to the broker a lift in production and lower 2H costs.

A fully franked ordinary dividend of US0.5cps was declared,

The target falls to $1.85 from $1.90. Buy.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.56
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

While Bell Potter lowers its target for DroneShield to $1.25 from $1.60 following a successfully completed $120m fully underwritten placement, the rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold after the recent share price decline.

Proceeds from the placement are intended for a $90m R&D program into greater application of AI in next-generation DroneShield products, explains the broker.

Another $20m will be spent on potential strategic bolt-on acquisitions, note the analysts, with the balance to cover the offer costs and further working capital.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.235
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder's 2Q adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of US$330m were supported by revenue growth and margin contribution from Gaming and SciPlay and beat Bell Potter's US$310m forecast.

Adjusted profit of US$98m also exceeded the broker's US$91m forecast.

Management expects ongoing growth beyond 2025 and is still confident in achieving the 2025 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (AEBITDA) target of US$1.4bn set out in 2022. 

Bell Potter raises its target to $186 from $180. Buy.

Target price is $186.00 Current Price is $159.87 Difference: $26.13
If LNW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $179.80, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Light & Wonder's record 2Q adjusted earnings (EBITDA) beat the consensus forecast by 7%. Year-on-year earnings for both SciPlay and Gaming climbed by 17%. While iGaming earnings were flat, the analyst notes attractive growth prospects.  

The target rises by $8.00 to $186 and the Outperform rating is maintained. The broker suggests shares of Light & Wonder should trade according to growth stock valuations instead of lower-growth value names.

Target price is $186.00 Current Price is $159.87 Difference: $26.13
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $179.80, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LNW as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett raises its target for Light & Wonder to $178 from $171 after 2Q operating earnings (EBITDA) of US$330m beat the broker's forecast by 8%. US installation growth of 7% drove a 5% increase in gaming operations revenue.

The broker concurs with management's assessment of a turning point for the land-based gaming business, which accounts for almost 75% of group earnings.

Over 1,000 gaming operations units were added, as installations of Dragon Train were met with reduced churn volumes, highlights the analyst. The Accumulate rating is unchanged.

Target price is $178.00 Current Price is $159.87 Difference: $18.13
If LNW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $179.80, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNW as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises its target for Light & Wonder to $169 from $162 after 2Q earnings (AEBITDA) came in 5% ahead of expectation, driven by an around 7% beat in the Gaming segment.

Land-based Gaming Segment strength was reflected by market share gains in both outright sales and gaming operations.

As management is looking to increase reinvestment in the D2C platform, the broker trims near-term margin forecasts.

The Neutral rating is kept on valuation.

Target price is $169.00 Current Price is $159.87 Difference: $9.13
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $179.80, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTM as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter describes a "reasonable" 2Q result for Arcadium Lithium with the business generating US$99m of adjusted earnings (EBITDA) and net income of US$86m.

Unfortunately, management downgraded the 2024 outlook with an average lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) price range of US$12,000-15,000/t for the 2H compared to US$15,000-25,000/t previously.

Based on the LCE forecast, management's 2024 earnings outlook is now US$380-470m, a drop of -40% at the midpoint from the prior estimate, notes the broker.

Bell Potter's target falls to $7.25 from $9.50. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $3.08
If LTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.09, suggesting upside of 64.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Buy (1) -

With softer expectations for lithium, Citi highlights Arcadium Lithium has paused expenditure at the 40kt James Bay expansion in Argentina.

The company is also reviewing the Mt Cattlin operations with spodumene demand still under pressure; the project is at risk of care and maintenance.

The 2Q24 results were slightly above the broker's forecasts with lower capex and sustaining costs; 2024 earnings are moving to the higher end of management's guidance.

Citi revises the 2024 earnings forecasts by -4% for 2024 at the EBITDA level and -20% for 2025. A Buy rating is retained; the target price revised to $6.50 from $9.40.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $2.33
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.09, suggesting upside of 64.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the FY25 earnings guidance from Mirvac Group was a "surprise"; it was -11% below the broker and consensus forecasts.

The analyst attributes lower margins in the residential business as the main culprit.

Citi highlights there are still some risks to FY25 with slower than expected residential settlements a possibility and the key project to focus on is Willoughby, with some 206 lots forecast to be settled.

Over $500m in asset sales are included in the guidance, while gearing and borrowing costs rose.

The broker revises EPS forecasts by -12.8% for FY25 and -5.4% for FY26.

Neutral rating and $2.10 target price unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.18
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Following Mirvac Group's FY24 result, Macquarie lowers its earnings forecasts largely driven by higher net financing costs on cessation of capitalised interest evident from management's FY25 earnings guidance. The latter missed the broker's forecast by -11%.

More positively, the analyst feels FY25 will be the nadir for earnings, while noting residential momentum is on the improve. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating. The target falls to $2.07 from $2.19.

Target price is $2.07 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.15
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

While Mirvac Group's reported FY24 EPS of 14cps was in line with Morgan Stanley's estimate, FY25 guidance was around -10% below the consensus forecast.

The broker attributes the guidance miss to capitalised interest, delays, and timing issues, which are expected to impact materially on Development profits. 

While FY25 is expected to be a trough year, some profits are yet to be secured, cautions Morgan Stanley.

The target falls to $2.15 from $2.35. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.23
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Buy (1) -

FY24 operating EPS (OEPS) for Mirvac Group came in at the low end of management's guidance but was in line with the consensus forecast, notes UBS.

FY25 guidance for OEPS of 12.0-12.3cps was around -10% below the consensus expectation partly due to lower commercial development earnings and a lower development margin, explains the broker. 

The ratio of capitalised interest to COGS interest was also a FY25 headwind, according to the analysts.

The target falls to $2.14 from $2.19. Buy.

Target price is $2.14 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.22
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Post today's conference call with analysts, Citi analysts report their view is now more positive on the Plush rollout and gross margins, but more negative on the Nick Scali rollout and New Zealand performance.

When thinking about what this means for broader retail sector, the analysts conclude it is yet further evidence retailer performance will depend on the part of the market it caters to.

Earlier, the broker commented Nick Scali's FY24 results are broadly in line with expectations and the broker believes the company is trading well given the "challenging" macroeconomic backdrop.

The analyst highlights concern around the pace, or lack thereof, in new store rollouts, with no net new Plush stores and no net new Scali stores in the 2H24 which is labelled as underwhelming compared to both the consensus and Citi expectations.

A final 33c dividend was well above the 29.4c consensus forecast and gross margins were resilient, a positive the broker believes due to freight costs.

In a break from tradition, Nick Scali combined the June and July written sales (historically separated) and collectively sales fell -1.2% which may disappoint the market, the broker suggests.

Buy. Target $17.30.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $14.82 Difference: $2.48
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.47, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

The 4Q24 News Corp results met the recently revised expectations from Macquarie and were 4%-5% above consensus estimates.

The broker highlights the 15% rise in books revenues as a "positive surprise" with both physical and digital sales doing well.

Higher Australian revenues boosted REA Group; lower US print prices impacted on the UK with subscriber numbers down -3% year-on-year with the expiration of the Meta deal in Australia.

News Corp announced it is assessing the strategic and financial options for Foxtel following interest received from another party. Outperform and $46 target price.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $41.38 Difference: $4.62
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.93, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Citi updates the model post a technical report from the Paladin Energy Langer Heinrich mine with a 15%-20% increase in operating costs.

The target price is revised to $15.20 from $16 to account for the change in the long-term valuation.

At current levels, Citi believes the market has overreacted to the  Kazatomprom 2024 guidance upgrade and Paladin Energy shares represent a good entry point at current levels.

Citi is expecting the U308 prices to move higher from current levels with the long-term contract prices moving up to US$79lb at the end of July, which is the highest since 2008.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $9.90 Difference: $5.3
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.09, suggesting upside of 59.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Piedmont Lithium reported 2Q2024 revenue which was -23% below consensus forecasts; average lithium prices were higher than 1Q24 but lower than the broker expected.

Earnings were also lower than consensus due to higher overhead costs, which resulted in a net loss of -US$12.7m; this was -US$5m below forecasts.

Management has removed the Tennessee lithium project from its development plans which was not included in Macquarie's modeling.

Outperform rating and 25c target.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.115
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Citi believes earnings expectations for Premier Investments are "reasonable" on the back of the Myer Holdings ((MYR)) trading update.

Myer's update exhibited high levels of discounting in clothing because of soft demand. Cost pressures remain a challenge, the broker states, with sales flat for the period to date.

This compares with slightly positive updates from Accent Group ((AX1)) and Universal Store Holdings ((UNI)), which Citi perceives as the mixed environment for retailers.

The broker anticipates Peter Alexander and Smiggle to report marginally positive like-for-like sales and its sales estimates stand slightly below consensus.

The Buy rating and $36 target are maintained. 

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $30.47 Difference: $5.53
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.03, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi's first take states the QBE Insurance 1HFY24 operating ratio is in line with consensus and slightly below the analyst's forecast. Net profit was slightly above forecasts, by 2% for Citi and 4% for consensus.

Management reiterated the FY24 operating ratio at 93.5% which includes the new reinsurance transaction costs of -US$40-US$45m. 

A CAT budget of around US$1.28bn is also included with the broker highlighting a lower CAT of US$527m than budgeted in the 1H24.

The interim dividend of 24c (20% franked) is higher than the broker's forecasts but lower than consensus. Citi believes this is a "solid" result and supportive of the stock's price.

Buy rating and $20 target. 

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.33 Difference: $3.67
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's initial response is a "weak" result for 1H24 earnings from QBE Insurance.

The broker highlights the operating ratio includes reinsurance costs offset by better North American crop business and gross written premium includes more exits from the North American middle market which account for the lower than forecast results.

QBE Insurance entered a loss portfolio transfer to re-insure PAY claims liabilities in North America and internationally. 

Macquarie assesses an upfront cost of -US$85m in the 2H24 but around a US$230m net benefit, a positive for the longer term.

The Neutral rating and $18.40 target are unchanged.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $16.33 Difference: $2.07
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Outperform (1) -

REA Group reported FY24 earnings which met the Macquarie analyst's expectations including a 27% year-on-year rise in EBITDA, which also met consensus forecasts.

The FY25 outlook is more upbeat and could result in a lift to the broker and consensus forecasts in the order of 1%-2% for EPS in FY25.

Notably, listings rose 7% year-on-year in FY24; a 13% price rise boosted the buy yield growth to 19%, while REA India is expected to generate lower losses in FY25.

Overweight rating retained with a $210 target price.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $189.52 Difference: $20.48
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $209.37, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Citi remains upbeat on Stockland as the preferred residential stock with the announcement Stockland is part of the consortium to redevelopment the Waterloo Renewal Project, including 3000 apartments, with 50% affordable and social housing.

Construction is forecast to commence in 2027 and will be delivered over several stages with an estimated $2-$3bn value and estimated profits for Stockland of $300m-$600m.

The broker forecasts around 8% compound EPS growth between FY24-FY27 but sees possible earnings pressure in FY25 from weaker residential sales and the uncertainty on the Lendlease ((LLC)) communities acquisition.

The Buy rating and $5 target unchanged.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.55
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SSR as Buy (1) -

UBS has retained its Buy rating for SSR Mining following a Q2 market update that didn't quite meet expectations. There's no dividend either as Copler is not producing.

Management has stuck with FY24 guidance, the broker observes, though with a skew towards H2. The focus remains on Copler remediation and its future with remediation estimated at -US$250-300m.

On slightly lowered estimates post FY24 which will now be loss-making, the price target has lost -20c to $9.40.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $6.70 Difference: $2.7
If SSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Citi revises the target price on Transurban Group to $14.20 from $14.30 and retains a Buy rating post the FY24 results.

Notably, Transurban Group reported a 65c dividend which met consensus and the broker's forecasts with slower 7% year-on-year growth for FY24.

Higher interest rates and debt amortisation for the Cross City Tunnel were attributed for the weaker dividend growth.

Looking ahead, the company is expected to pay 95%-105% of free cash flow in dividend payments and the 65c FY25 guidance was in line with Citi's estimates.

The market continues to question the "inorganic" opportunities for Transurban Group, the broker suggests, adding less concern on the earnings call was shown around the NSW toll review.

A finalisation of the toll review and lower global interest rates are cited as potential positives for the stock.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $12.78 Difference: $1.52
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Transurban Group's FY24 earnings (EBITDA) fell -2% short of Macquarie's forecast due to softer-than-expected traffic, while costs were in line with the broker's forecast.

A slow economy (Brisbane, Melbourne), roadworks (Melbourne, Sydney) and weather negatively impacted on growth, explains the analyst. For FY25, roadworks and the economy are again expected to weigh on traffic growth and free cashflow growth.

Macquarie also highlights the group's growth pipeline of circa $1.4bn is half the size of FY22.

Neutral rating. The target slips to $12.73 from $12.81.

Target price is $12.73 Current Price is $12.78 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TCL as Accumulate (2) -

In line with Ord Minnett's forecast, Transurban Group's FY24 operating earnings (EBITDA) were $2.6bn. The broker highlights robust cash generation, largely due to effective cost control measures.

FY25 distribution guidance of 65cps represents 5% growth from FY24. The analyst anticipates the next significant share price catalyst will derive from the NSW state government’s toll review process.

The target falls to $13.40 from $13.60. Accumulate. [Prior to this in-house research, Ord Minnett whitelabeled Morningstar research, which previously generated a Hold rating and $12.50 target].

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $12.78 Difference: $0.62
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Metrics within Transurban Group's FY24 result were in line with forecasts by UBS. While 4Q traffic numbers missed the broker's forecast, an offset was provided by lower-than-expected operating and corporate costs, and cash finance costs.

Management's FY25 guidance of 65cps, suggests to the broker around 7% underlying free cash flow (FCF) growth.

The Buy rating and $14.60 target are maintained. UBS believes improving Australian traffic flows, additional margin expansion, and more success on deals will rebuild market confidence in the growth outlook.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $12.78 Difference: $1.82
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

UBS is of the view the proposed de-merger of B2B from B2C might lead to a re-rate for Webjet shares. The stand-alone B2C could possibly see its pace of growth accelerate.

Both businesses have ongoing potential for further market share increases and UBS calculates upside could be in the range of 27%-50%.

Target $10.60.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $8.24 Difference: $2.36
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources