Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

AGL Energy shares are down -3% year to date, underperforming the ASX200 Industrials, as lower and less volatile power prices temper optimism for FY26 and beyond, explains Morgan Stanley.

The broker points to falling FY27 baseload prices in NSW and Victoria, driven by supply growth and lower gas prices, alongside narrower cap and spark spreads.

The analysts acknowledge demand growth, particularly overnight, from data centres, but see this offset by weaker pricing dynamics and rising new entrant capacity.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $9.66. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.66 Current Price is $9.01 Difference: $0.65
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.17, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley continues to prefer downstream energy exposure, despite regional crack spreads normalising to around US$12/bbl after a strong finish to 2025.

The analysts highlight supportive petrol and diesel margins, resilient fuel demand trends and regulatory action on illicit tobacco as constructive sector signals.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating on Ampol with a $33 target.

The broker favours Ampol over Viva Energy on risk-reward, though notes the valuation gap is narrowing as Viva screens increasingly undemanding.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.15 Difference: $1.85
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.33, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Following a review of APRA's monthly statistics, Macquarie notes gross loans and acceptances (GLAA) at AMP Bank were up 2.4% since June 2025 vs the consensus of 1.9%.

The broker reckons strong investment market performance in 2H25 may pressure AMP’s S&I and Platform revenue margins via higher average balances, a risk not fully reflected in consensus.

The broker's forecasts sit below guidance and consensus for FY25 margins in both divisions, with FY26 controllable costs also estimated to be higher than consensus.

FY25 EPS forecast trimmed by -0.6% but FY26 lifted by 1%, reflecting mark-to-market investment income and the inclusion of APRA monthly statistics in the Bank division.

Neutral. Target modestly lowered to $1.90 from $1.92.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.05
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.02, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reviews annual shareholder returns across the major banks, arguing history shows performance dispersion is the norm rather than the exception.

The broker notes the gap between the best and worst performers exceeded 20% in 2025, a pattern repeated frequently over the past 25 years. CommBank was the worst, falling by -25% in 2025, while ANZ Bank was the best of the big four.

The analysts believe similar divergence is likely in 2026, as the majors sit at different points in their management and strategy cycles. ANZ could deliver back-to-back outperformance, supported by a comprehensive and credible new strategy.

The broker highlights ANZ’s valuation discount to National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)) versus long-term averages, alongside evidence investors continue to reward turnaround stories.

The analysts also view ANZ as the least exposed among the majors to risks from an extended cash rate pause or further RBA hikes.

Equal-weight rating and $36 target retained for ANZ Bank. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $35.89 Difference: $0.11
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.43, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the December quarterly, Macquarie forecasts BHP Group's 2Q26 iron ore and copper production broadly in line with consensus, with metallurgical coal -10% below due to an underground longwall move.

The broker expects commentary to focus on realised iron ore pricing amid CMRG negotiations and recent Queensland wet weather..

Macquarie marked December prices to market, updated iron ore sales estimates using proprietary shipping data, and trimmed Escondida and BMA forecasts. This resulted in minor revisions to EPS forecasts across FY26-30.

Target rises to $48 from $43 on a lift to EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 7x from 5.5x, reflecting stronger commodity prices. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $46.51 Difference: $1.49
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.82, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley remains constructive on copper, forecasting an around -600kt market deficit in 2026 and ongoing tightness until there is clarity on potential US tariffs in 2027.

The broker expects supply disruptions in 2025 could spill into 2026, reinforcing support for prices.

The analysts favour BHP Group for copper exposure, given its higher attributable earnings contribution, over Rio Tinto, while remaining Underweight Sandfire Resources on valuation and mine-life extension risks.

For BHP, Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and a $48 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $46.51 Difference: $1.49
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.82, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley reviews annual shareholder returns across the major banks, arguing history shows performance dispersion is the norm rather than the exception.

The broker notes the gap between the best and worst performers exceeded 20% in 2025, a pattern repeated frequently over the past 25 years. CommBank was the worst, falling by -25% in 2025, while ANZ Bank was the best of the big four.

The analysts believe similar divergence is likely in 2026, as the majors sit at different points in their management and strategy cycles. CommBank could underperform again, as competitive pressure builds across retail and business banking.

The broker sees limited scope for a renewed cost-out or capital management catalyst, while valuation remains stretched at around 24x earnings and a sizeable premium to peers.

Underweight. Target $143.20. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $143.20 Current Price is $154.08 Difference: minus $10.88 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $118.17, suggesting downside of -23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CDA as Hold (3) -

Codan's 1H26 trading update flagged strong outperformance, with revenue of $394m, up 29% y/y and underlying net profit of at least $70m, up 52% y/y. Both were well ahead of consensus, Bell Potter notes.

The results were driven by surging Metal Detection sales, particularly in Africa and other global recreational markets, alongside solid Communications growth, including a full-period Kagwerks contribution.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 12% and FY27 by 10%. Target rises to $36.70 from $27.80 on a higher EV/EBIT multiple in the valuation due to improving sentiment in the defence sector and a stronger outlook for Metal Detection.

Hold remains.

Target price is $36.70 Current Price is $36.71 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CDA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.62, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CDA as Neutral (3) -

Codan’s 1H26 trading update flagged strong outperformance, with revenue of $394m, up 29% y/y, and 5% ahead of consensus, UBS observes. Net profit of $70m was 52% higher y/y, beating consensus by 11%.

The upgrade is driven entirely by Metal Detection, with 1H26 revenue of $168m, 18% ahead of consensus and monthly sales accelerating to $31m in 2Q26, the broker notes.

Higher ARPU products, including the Gold Monster rollout and the upcoming GPZ 2 launch in Africa, are expected to further support Metal Detection momentum in 2H26, in the broker's view.

Neutral. Target rises to $37 from $34, following upgrades to FY26-27 EPS forecasts.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $36.71 Difference: $0.29
If CDA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.62, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COF as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley argues improving physical office market indicators are unlikely to translate into a near-term re-rate for listed office REITs.

Sydney vacancies have stabilised, highlights the broker, and supply is at decade lows, but elevated vacancy levels, rising lease expiries and weak distribution growth remain constraints.

While unlisted investors can achieve attractive internal rates of return, the analysts note listed REIT performance has historically tracked cash earnings growth, which remains subdued.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating for Centuria Office REIT with a target of $1.15, down from $1.25. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.03
If COF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley argues improving physical office market indicators are unlikely to translate into a near-term re-rate for listed office REITs.

Sydney vacancies have stabilised, highlights the broker, and supply is at decade lows, but elevated vacancy levels, rising lease expiries and weak distribution growth remain constraints.

While unlisted investors can achieve attractive internal rates of return, the analysts note listed REIT performance has historically tracked cash earnings growth, which remains subdued.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating for Dexus with a target of $7.15, down from $7.95. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: $0.22
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

While today's trading update by Endeavour Group showed improving retail sales trends, Citi notes discounting pressured margins, driving a -7.5% miss to the consensus profit (PBT) forecast.

As part of an early assessment, the broker highlights retail gross margins fell sharply year on year, raising questions over sustainable margin levels amid intense competition. Hotels delivered resilient earnings in line with the analyst's expectation.

Citi sees limited near-term relief, noting retail strategy changes will take time to emerge and significant one-off costs were flagged outside consensus forecasts.

Neutral rating. Target $3.92.

Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $0.11
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.92, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELV as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Ahead of December quarter reports for Critical Mineral stocks, Macquarie highlights lithium price gains accelerated in early January, presenting near-term earnings upside. 

The broker lifted the EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 20.0x from 5.0x for Elevra Lithium, reflecting near-term earnings upside from strong spot spodumene prices, which are 100% and 75% above its 2026 and 2027 forecasts. Target rises to $8.50 from $7.00.

The broker forecasts 2Q26 spodumene production of 48kt, down -8% q/q as plant recoveries normalise, while FY26 output estimate of 203kt remains at the guidance midpoint. Shipments are expected to more than double q/q due to lumpy cargo timing, driving temporarily lower unit costs but expected to normalise over time.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on recent share price gains.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $9.13 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If ELV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target for Buy-rated Electro Optic Systems to $12.72 from $12.44 following the acquisition of Europe-based, counter-drone command and control system provider MARSS Group.

This is a sound strategic shift, suggest the analysts, transforming the company into a full counter-drone solutions provider with broader global and civilian exposure.

The broker notes the around -$54m upfront purchase, plus a capped earnout, will not affect the analysts' FY25-26 forecasts given settlement timing, but lifts longer-term earnings potential.

Ord Minnett upgrades its FY27 earnings forecast by 9%, supported by a growing order book now exceeding $500m amid rising defence spending and geopolitical tensions.

Target price is $12.72 Current Price is $9.99 Difference: $2.73
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Ahead of the December quarterly, Macquarie expects Fortescue to report 2Q26 production of around 50Mt, in line with consensus, with an average realised price of US$89/t.

Commentary is expected to focus on iron ore pricing amid recent index changes and Fortescue's strategy to diversify beyond iron ore.

Macquarie marked 2Q26 iron ore prices to market and updated sales estimates using proprietary shipping data. This resulted in a 3% lift to FY26 EPS forecast.

Target rises to $21.00 from $19.50 on a lift to EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 6x from 5x, reflecting stronger spot iron ore prices. Underperform maintained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $22.40 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.03, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Goodman Group formed a $14bn 50:50 data centre partnership with CPPIB (Canada Pension Plan Investment Board) to develop four European data centres.

UBS notes it will deliver 435MW across Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Paris, at an initial capital commitment of $3.9bn.

The deal validates Goodman's data centre strategy, de-risks major projects ahead of construction and leasing, and unlocks upfront profit from land contributions in 2H26, the broker highlights.

Key 2H26 catalysts include progress on data centre leasing and a potential Australian partnership update. Buy rating and $36.41 target price are unchanged.

This report was published December 31, 2025.

Target price is $36.41 Current Price is $30.32 Difference: $6.09
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.28, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie notes severe weather exceeded allowances in 1H26 and is likely to pressure Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group's ordinary dividends in February.

At the 1H26 results, the broker expects the insurer to reaffirm FY26 reported margin guidance of 14-16%, noting its forecast is 14.4%. GWP (gross written premium) growth is forecast at 9.4% vs guidance of 10%.

The broker trimmed FY26 EPS forecast by -6.3% and FY27 by -6.1%. Target cut to $8.90 from $9.10.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on valuation reasons, with 1H26 result eyed as a catalyst.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.73 Difference: $1.17
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.90, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Ahead of December quarter reports for Critical Mineral stocks, Macquarie highlights lithium price gains accelerated in early January, presenting near-term earnings upside. 

The broker lifted the EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 20.0x from 8.0x for IGO Ltd, reflecting near-term earnings upside from strong spot spodumene prices, which are 100% and 75% above its 2026 and 2027 forecasts. Target rises to $9.00 from $7.50.

The broker's forecast for Greenbushes spodumene output of 359kt is 3% above consensus. with full-year production estimate near the midpoint of 1,500-1,650kt guidance. Nova performance is assumed to be weaker, with nickel and copper volumes -12% and -19% below consensus, respectively.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on recent share price gains.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.91 Difference: $0.09
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting downside of -24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Imdex to deliver a strong 1H26 result, with growth across all regions driven by improving exploration activity.

Volume gains in drilling fluids, instrumentation and Directional Core Drilling should lead the results, with momentum building as junior explorers return and bundled offerings expand, the broker explains.

With optimism that the exploration upcycle will be an extended one, the broker maintains a Buy rating. Target price $4.20.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.5
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi points to ABS retail sales data showing an acceleration to 6.9% y/y growth in November from 6.1% in October, led by stronger discretionary spending, while food grew modestly and alcohol & tobacco declined.

Household goods and clothing continued to gain momentum, with QLD and WA outperforming other states. The broker notes industry feedback suggests a slowing of momentum in December, but an overall mixed trend.

Citi's preferred retail exposures remain JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Coles Group ((COL)).

Buy rating and $120 target price for JB Hi-Fi.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $93.26 Difference: $26.74
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.50, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Underperform (5) -

Ahead of December quarter reports for Critical Mineral stocks, Macquarie highlights lithium price gains accelerated in early January, presenting near-term earnings upside.

The broker's 2Q26 production forecast of 98kt for Liontown is -3% below consensus, while FY26 output of 417kt is above the guidance midpoint. 

A 13% q/q increase in spodumene production is expected to drive a -5% fall in AISC (cost) from fixed cost dilution and lower capital spend, alongside a -50% reduction in growth capex to $15m.

No change to Liontown's Underperform rating and $1 target.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting downside of -45.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of December quarter reports for Critical Mineral stocks, Macquarie highlights lithium price gains accelerated in early January, presenting near-term earnings upside. 

For Mineral Resources, the broker lifted the EV/EBITDA valuation multiple for iron ore to 7.0x from 5.5x and for lithium to 20.0x from 8.0x to reflect stronger commodity prices. The broker highlights strong spot spodumene prices, now 100% and 75% above its 2026 and 2027 forecasts.

Target rises to $56 from $51. The broker estimates the company's 2Q26 spodumene production of 117kt, -4% below consensus, while iron ore output of 10.6Mt is in line with consensus.

Neutral stays.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $58.58 Difference: minus $2.58 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $52.34, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Monadelphous Group to deliver a solid first half result, supported by an around $2.2bn order book covering around 80% of next-twelve-month revenue.

The broker sees upside risk to FY26 and FY27 revenue, with potential for a guidance upgrade as project award momentum accelerates and non-process infrastructure volumes lift.

The analysts anticipate margin improvement from stronger engineering and construction contributions and moderating cost pressures, noting first-half margins could surprise positively.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $28.75.

Target price is $28.75 Current Price is $28.10 Difference: $0.65
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.02, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

Northern Star Resources reported a weak December (2Q26) quarter and cut FY26 production guidance by -7% at the midpoint, UBS notes.

With 1H sales flagged at 729koz, the broker reckons a material lift is required in 2H to meet guidance, prompting a further -5% downgrade to its forecast, now below guidance.

The full quarterly is due on January 22, and ahead of that, the broker cut FY26-27 production forecasts and EPS, reducing cash flow yields, while leaving cost and capex assumptions unchanged.

Target cut to $29.45 from $29.75. Buy retained.

This report was published January 7.

Target price is $29.45 Current Price is $25.43 Difference: $4.02
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.49, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Origin Energy shares are down -3% year to date, underperforming the ASX200 Industrials, as lower and less volatile power prices temper optimism for FY26 and beyond, explains Morgan Stanley.

The broker points to falling FY27 baseload prices in NSW and Victoria, driven by supply growth and lower gas prices, alongside narrower cap and spark spreads.

The analysts acknowledge demand growth, particularly overnight, from data centres, but see this offset by weaker pricing dynamics and rising new entrant capacity.

Underweight retained, with unchanged target of $11.11. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $11.11 Current Price is $11.18 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.20, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of December quarter reports for Critical Mineral stocks, Macquarie highlights lithium price gains accelerated in early January, presenting near-term earnings upside. 

The broker lifted the EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 20.0x from 8.0x for PLS Group, reflecting near-term earnings upside from strong spot spodumene prices, which are 100% and 75% above its 2026 and 2027 forecasts. Target rises to $4.50 from $3.80.

Macquarie's 2Q26 spodumene shipment forecast of 223kt for PLS is 3% above consensus, with a realised price of US$884/dmt around 6% higher than consensus and costs in line at US$375/t.

Neutral rating remains.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting downside of -28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes NSW settlement activity rose 14.2% y/y in December, accelerating from a 4.4% rise in November, though still slower than 17.6% in October.

Qld activity was slightly weaker in November, up 6.8% y/y vs 8.2% in October (latest data). Extrapolating out to national activity with a 75%/25% weighting to NSW & VIC/QLD, estimated national activity rose 5% in November, slowing from 15.5% in October and 10.8% in September.

The broker's weighted average index, which is over 95% correlated with Pexa Group-reported market volumes, is tracking at 6.9% growth year-to-date FY26 versus its 1H26 forecast of 5.2%.

The broker remains Outperform rated on Pexa Group. Target unchanged at $19.10. 

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $13.37 Difference: $5.73
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley remains constructive on copper, forecasting an around -600kt market deficit in 2026 and ongoing tightness until there is clarity on potential US tariffs in 2027.

The broker expects supply disruptions in 2025 could spill into 2026, reinforcing support for prices.

The analysts favour BHP Group for copper exposure, given its higher attributable earnings contribution, over Rio Tinto, while remaining Underweight Sandfire Resources on valuation and mine-life extension risks.

For Rio Tinto, Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and a $129.50 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $129.50 Current Price is $142.43 Difference: minus $12.93 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $134.42, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Rio Tinto has confirmed renewed discussions around a potential takeover or business combination with Swiss-based Glencore, driven primarily by copper growth exposure amid record prices.

Any transaction would likely be all scrip, highlights the analyst, potentially creating a mining group valued above $300bn, with Rio shareholders owning around two-thirds of the combined entity.

The broker sees limited operational overlap but envisages scope for material synergies from Glencore’s trading division and corporate cost reductions, alongside improved commodity diversification.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and target of $150.00.

Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $142.43 Difference: $7.57
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.42, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners delivered an upbeat update, with FY25 net profit expected to exceed market expectations, driven by strong performance fees and higher-than-forecast FUM of around $20.8bn, Bell Potter highlights.

Performance fees are now expected to reach $130m in 2H25, well above prior forecasts. This will support a normalised FY25 net profit of $145m vs $97.5m in FY24, the broker explains.

The broker lifted FY25 EPS forecast by 45% and FY27 by 2.8%. Buy retained with a higher target of $4.70 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $1.14
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of the December quarterly, Macquarie expects South32's 2Q26 production volumes to be slightly below consensus, with lower copper production (-5% vs consensus) partly offset by aluminium, 6% above.

Other commodities are broadly in line, with base-case forecasts consistent with FY26-27 guidance, the broker explains.

Macquarie marked 2Q26 commodity prices to market and made modest Sierra Gorda production adjustments, lifting FY26 EPS forecast by 3%.

Target rises to $4.20 from $3.70 on a lift to EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 7x from 5x, reflecting the miner’s strong leverage to base metals and improved short-term pricing. Outperform remains.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.3
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Sandfire Resources’ 2Q production pre-release was below Morgan Stanley's expectations, reflecting weaker output at Motheo due to maintenance, fleet availability and delayed access to higher-grade ore.

Group copper-equivalent production missed forecasts, note the analysts, partly offset by stronger zinc production at Matsa from improved grades and recoveries.

FY26 production guidance remains unchanged, with a stronger second half expected, while the balance sheet improved to net cash by December, highlights the broker.

In a separate report, Morgan Stanley noted its constructive view on copper, forecasting an around -600kt market deficit in 2026 and ongoing tightness until there is clarity on potential US tariffs in 2027.

The analysts favour BHP Group for copper exposure, given its higher attributable earnings contribution, over Rio Tinto, while remaining Underweight Sandfire Resources on valuation and mine-life extension risks.

Underweight. Target $11.45. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $18.76 Difference: minus $7.31 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.38, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Following a full review of Super Retail's 1H26 trading update, Citi cut FY26 EBIT forecast by about -10% and FY27 by around -6%.

While disappointed, the broker is cautious about not overreacting to potentially temporary factors, preferring to wait for an update at the 1H26 result. Downside risk, in the broker's view, is limited by net cash, AUD exposure and a low 13.3x estimated FY26 earnings multiple. 

Buy retained. Target cut to $18.70 from $20.50.

In a flash update previously, the broker advised the forecasts are under review.

Group sales of $2.195bn were -1% below the broker's forecast, though it met consensus.  Underlying profit before tax guidance of $172-175m missed Citi's forecast by -9% and the consensus by -7% at the midpoint.

The shortfall was driven by Rebel, where increased discounting pressured margins, with EBIT estimated to be -15% to -20% below the broker and consensus expectations.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $14.89 Difference: $3.81
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.78, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail's 1H26 group profit before tax guidance fell short of consensus by -7% despite an in-line revenue estimate, Macquarie notes.

Supercheap Auto is showing signs of stabilisation with LFL (like-for-like) sales growth above CPI, though competitive pressures and promotions at Rebel are weighing on margins, the broker explains.

BCF (Boating, Camping & Fishing) continues to underperform, the broker highlights, with deteriorating LFL sales pointing to brand weakness and heightened competition, particularly online.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -11% and FY27 by -1%. Target cut to $15.70 from $17.30, and Neutral retained.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $14.89 Difference: $0.81
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.78, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

Super Retail's AGM update flagged softer 1H26 profit, with revenue of $2.2bn in line with Morgan Stanley's estimate, though profit (PBT) guidance of $172-175m came in below consensus.

The analysts explain the miss was mainly due to rebel and BCF, where higher promotional intensity, store activity costs, and weaker sales conditions pressured earnings.

Like-for-like sales were mixed, assesses the broker, with strength in Rebel, SCA and Macpac offset by a decline at BCF amid weather and macro headwinds.

Underweight. Target $14.40. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.89 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.78, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Super Retail to $17 from $19 and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate.

Management has flagged margin pressure in 1H26, with higher marketing spend at Rebel and weaker conditions for BCF offsetting modest same-store sales growth, explains the analyst.

Revenue met the broker's expectations but profit missed consensus by more than -7%, prompting forecasts for a near -80bp full-year margin contraction.

Intensified competition from global brands and elevated promotional costs led to EPS downgrades by Ord Minnett across FY26-28.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.89 Difference: $2.11
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.78, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail published 1H26 revenue and profit before tax (PBT) guidance, which showed like-for-like (LFL) group sales were up 2.5%, but PBT fell short of UBS and consensus forecasts. Sales were led by Super Cheap Auto, Rebel and Macpac, while BCF declined.

The broker notes PBT margin guidance of 7.9% implies a -92bps decline y/y, driven by promotional pressure at Rebel, clearance activity at Macpac and operating deleverage at BCF. Expectation is for a margin recovery as execution improves and promotions ease.

FY26 EPS forecast downgraded by -8.9% and FY27 by -6.9%.

Despite a strong cash position, the broker retains a Neutral rating given earnings downgrades, execution risk and intensifying competition. Target cut to $15.50 from $17.75.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.89 Difference: $0.61
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.78, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights Suncorp Group has faced an unfavourable year, with elevated hazard activity since July exposing weaker reinsurance protection versus peers and pressuring earnings.

The broker expects weather losses to cap the interim dividend and limit reinsurance flexibility, forecasting a -$275m FY26 adverse variance despite some second-half recovery.

The analysts believe investment returns remain supportive, with underlying insurance trading returns still expected in the top half of guidance, despite FY26 EPS downgrades.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and lowers its target to $18.50 from $19.25.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $17.08 Difference: $1.42
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.73, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes severe weather exceeded allowances in 1H26 and is likely to pressure Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group's ordinary dividends in February.

Whether Suncorp opts to buy additional reinsurance for FY27 will be a key debate over the next six months, in the broker's opinion.

At the 1H26 results, the broker expects the insurer to reaffirm FY26 underlying margin guidance of 10-12%, noting its forecast is 11.6%. GWP (gross written premium) growth is forecast at 4.2% vs guidance of mid-single digit growth.

The broker trimmed FY26 EPS forecast by -14.2% and FY27 by -6.9%. Target cut to $18.20 from $19.60, and Neutral maintained.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $17.08 Difference: $1.12
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.73, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Suncorp Group’s updated 1H26 catastrophe costs and investment income were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, while reinsurance dropdowns materially reduced exposure to future events.

The broker highlights the next Australian event retention has fallen to -$260m, down from -$350m in the 1H26, then -$160m thereafter, addressing investor concerns around aggregate CAT protection.

There's weaker interim dividend expectation due to seasonality, explain the analysts. However, full-year payouts are expected to be slightly ahead of consensus, alongside options to improve capital efficiency and earnings quality.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $22.25 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.25 Current Price is $17.08 Difference: $5.17
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.73, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLX as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Telix Pharmaceuticals reaffirmed FY25 guidance at a US conference and outlined updated pipeline, ahead of 4Q sales on January 20 and FY25 results in February.

Citi notes the pipeline includes early-stage alpha-emitting lung cancer candidates (TLX602 and TLX603), highlighting ambitions to expand in-house R&D into challenging but credible targets.

Near-term catalysts include imminent safety data from the Phase 3 ProstACT Global trial (TLX591), a near-final Pixclara regulatory resubmission, and potential 2026 launches of Pixclara and Zircaix, pending FDA approval.

The Phase 3 BiPASS study for expanded use of Illuccix/Zircaix is recruiting in the US, representing additional upside not yet reflected in the broker's estimates.

Buy, High Risk maintained. Target unchanged at $34.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $11.20 Difference: $22.8
If TLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 204% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.20, suggesting upside of 147.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley continues to prefer downstream energy exposure, despite regional crack spreads normalising to around US$12/bbl after a strong finish to 2025.

The analysts highlight supportive petrol and diesel margins, resilient fuel demand trends and regulatory action on illicit tobacco as constructive sector signals.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating on Viva Energy with a $2.13 target.

The broker favours Ampol over Viva on risk-reward, though notes the valuation gap is narrowing as Viva screens increasingly undemanding.

Target price is $2.13 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.06
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of the December quarterly, Macquarie forecasts in-line 2Q26 sales of 8Mt for Whitehaven Coal, with ROM and saleable coal production -6% and -5% below consensus, respectively. On a q/q basis, the performance is seen as broadly flat, the broker explains.

FY26 production remains on track around the guidance midpoint, the broker highlights.

Macquarie marked 2Q26 coal prices to market, lifting FY26 EPS forecast by 4%.

Target rises to $8.75 from $8.00 on a lift to EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 6x from 5x. Outperform remains.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $0.52
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources