Australian Broker Call
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March 21, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AUB - | AUB Group | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
CWY - | Cleanaway Waste Management | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
HLS - | Healius | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
IAG - | Insurance Australia Group | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
RIO - | Rio Tinto | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
SGR - | Star Entertainment | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
Overnight Price: $0.12
Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -
Aurelia Metals has reported exploration results for its Burrabungie, Chesney and Queen Bee prospects.
Macquarie observes all are within 10km of the company's Peak processing plant and could extend Peak's mine life.
The broker also considers the company to be a potential M&A target.
Outperform rating and 23c target price retained.
Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.115
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $66.58
Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -
Futures trading and OTC clearing accounted for 21% of ASX's revenue in FY22, and remains one of the company's largest revenue streams.
Morgan Stanley's data suggests futures volumes increased 35% year-on-year in March to-date.
While the broker calculates a 25% rise in volume translates to around 6% upside to its 2H earnings forecast, interest income may slow and undermine the current trend.
The Equal-weight rating and target price of $68.90 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $68.90 Current Price is $66.58 Difference: $2.32
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $69.97, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 259.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.0, implying annual growth of 1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 271.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.4, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $24.35
Ord Minnett rates AUB as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for AUB Group to Accumulate from Hold valuation after a recent share price decline.
No changes are made to the broker's forecasts and the $29 target is unchanged.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $24.35 Difference: $4.65
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.81, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 122.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.0, implying annual growth of 13.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 136.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.5, implying annual growth of 17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CWY CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $2.49
Credit Suisse rates CWY as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Credit Suisse warns Cleanaway Waste Management is likely at risk of severe economic sensitivity, based on impacts on peers in the US and UK during the global financial crisis. The peer companies in question saw revenue decline as much as -12%, and earnings as much as -50%.
Extrapolating these results, Credit Suisse expects a gross domestic product decline of between -1-2% would see Cleanaway Waste Management's revenue decline -2-4% and earnings -6-8%, while in the less likely case of a -5% gross domestic product decline would see revenue decline -10-12% and drive a materially greater earnings decline.
The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target price of $2.50 are retained.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $0.01
If CWY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 75.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 27.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.84
Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -
According to Morgan Stanley, the recent operational stoppage at Evolution Mining and high gearing levels have the market concerned with the company's liquidity position.
The analysts dispel such talk, noting Evolution could withstand gold prices as much as -US$300/oz lower for a period of three years.
While the company has been impacted by wet weather at the Ernest Henry operations, the broker considers management guidance of six weeks for the asset to recover is reasonable.
The Overweight rating is retained and the target slips to $3.35 from $3.40. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.51
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of -20.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 58.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates EVN as Add (1) -
Fears of banking contagion is leading to the increasing appeal of safe haven assets such as gold, notes Morgans.
Despite a 10% rise in the Australian dollar gold price in the last 12 months, the broker points out Australian gold stocks (All Ordinaries Gold index) have fallen around -11% over the same period.
The analyst suggests gold equities may be lagging the broader market due to inflationary pressures, lower margins and the strong US dollar.
Morgans top selections from gold stocks under coverage are Evolution Mining and Newcrest Mining.
The broker maintains its Add rating and $3.70 target for Evolution.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.86
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of -20.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 58.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -
With Evolution Mining reporting first underground stope mining and processing from its Cowal asset this month, ahead of schedule, UBS is finding the company to look "increasingly good" at spot prices. The project is on track to ramp up to 320,000 ounces in the next fiscal year, from 275,000 in the current year.
The broker expects Evolution Mining will chase the low end of its 685,000-755,000 ounce guidance for the year, largely dependent on the Ernest Henry restart. Recovery is making progress after six weeks of down time, and this remains a short-term focus.
The Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.70 from $2.65.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of -20.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 58.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.01
Macquarie rates HLS as Outperform (1) -
Australian Clinical Labs ((ACL)) has targeted Healius in an off-market bid at a 4.2% discount to the March 17 closing price, and Macquarie suspects this could rise if Healius meets internal margin targets.
Under the deal, Healius shareholders get 0.74 ACL shares for each Healius share resulting in the latter getting 68% of the merged company, and ACL shareholders emerging with 32%.
Australian Clinical Labs predicts the merger would result in a pre-tax costs synergies of $95m ($55m in the first two years).
Macquarie's calculates Healius's valuation of $4.87 to be well above the offer, and that the offer (at roughly $3.66) is 32% above the share price, suggesting strong upside for Healius shareholders in the merged company if margins are achieved, says the broker.
Outperform rating and $4 target price retained.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.99
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of -88.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 136.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates HLS as Underweight (5) -
Given Morgan Stanley sees limited upside for Healius shares, especially when considering a poor record of strategic execution, most upside is likely to be generated from shared synergies with the likes of Australian Clinical Labs ((ACL)).
The latter has made an all-share takeover offer for Healius at a -4.2% discount to the last closing price.
As far as the broker is concerned, the synergy potential on offer is of a similar magnitude to initiatives by Healius under the existing sustainable improvement program (SIP).
Management at Australian Clinical Labs expect the proposed merger to create -$95m in cost synergies across four years.
Underweight rating and $2.65 target price retained.
Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of -88.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 136.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates HLS as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
In an approach that looks opportunistic to Morgans, given a lack of premium, Healius has received an all-scrip off-market takeover offer from Australian Clinical Labs ((ACL)). The deal is comprised of 0.74 Australian Clinical Labs shares for each Healius share.
The potential to unlock -$95m cost synergies is realistic, believes the broker.
While conceding the potential for scale benefits and cost savings, Morgans sees risk in merging the operations from hiccups or divestments, which may impact on returns achieved. Also, ACCC clearance for the transaction may not be certain, explains the analyst
The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the $3.02 target retained.
Target price is $3.02 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.01
If HLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of -88.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 136.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates HLS as Accumulate (2) -
The takeover proposal by Australian Clinical Labs materially undervalues Healius as a stand-alone business, prior to any synergies, according to Ord Minnett.
Putting the bid to one side, the broker anticipates a recovery in margins for Healius as activity levels for the base business recover and cost-out initiatives take effect.
Ord Minnett has little doubt the Healius board will reject the proposal.
The Accumulate rating and $3.55 target are unchanged.
Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.54
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of -88.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 13.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 136.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.49
Ord Minnett rates IAG as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Insurance Australia Group to Accumulate from Hold on valuation after a recent share price decline.
No changes are made to the broker's forecasts and the $5.50 target is unchanged.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $1.01
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 78.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 42.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.12
Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -
Incitec Pivot is selling its Waggaman ammonia facility for total gross proceeds of $2.5bn or post tax realised proceeds of $1.884bn, around 4% above Citi's estimated value.
The company has also entered into a 25-year offtake agreement with the buyer of Waggaman (CF Industries) to supply 200k short tons/per year of ammonia for 15 years to support the Dyno Nobel Americas explosives business. The offtake agreement is valued at -$634m.
The Neutral rating and $3.95 target are unchanged.
Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.83
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of -16.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of -30.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley expects meaningful capital management after Incitec Pivot sold its Louisiana-based WALA ammonia facility for $2.5bn, a price slightly ahead of market expectations.
The analysts reiterate the Overweight rating and believe the sale will crystalise value and simplify the organisation, as well as increasing the importance of the higher-quality explosives business.
Once the sale has concluded, management will look at demerging the IPF fertiliser business.
Morgan Stanley hasn't yet adjusted its earnings forecasts for the sale, though the target falls to $4.10 from $5.05 on a mark-to-market exercise and revised fertiliser assumptions. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.98
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of -16.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of -30.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $25.65
Morgans rates NCM as Add (1) -
Fears of banking contagion is leading to the increasing appeal of safe haven assets such as gold, notes Morgans.
Despite a 10% rise in the Australian dollar gold price in the last 12 months, the broker points out Australian gold stocks (All Ordinaries Gold index) have fallen around -11% over the same period.
The analyst suggests gold equities may be lagging the broader market due to inflationary pressures, lower margins and the strong US dollar.
Morgans top selections from gold stocks under coverage are Newcrest Mining and Evolution Mining.
The broker maintains its Add rating and $25.70 target for Newcrest.
Target price is $25.70 Current Price is $25.65 Difference: $0.05
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.08, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.52 cents and EPS of 143.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.07 cents and EPS of 123.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.3, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.12
Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -
Prior to Ord Minnett's decision to whitelabel resarch from Morningstar, the target price for Orica in the FNArena target price was $15.60 (JP Morgan's research).
In new research, Ord Minnett's $16.10 (Morningstar) target is unchanged, despite the broker's margin assumption for Orica being slightly reduced.
The analyst also marginally reduces its DPS forecast. The yield was already considered pedestrian.
Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $15.12 Difference: $0.98
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.25, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.60 cents and EPS of 85.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 115.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.20 cents and EPS of 108.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $25.53
Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -
First half results for Premier Investments are due on March 27 and Citi forecasts retail earnings (EBIT) of $223m and overall earnings growth of 11% year-on-year.
The broker notes near-term trading conditions appear robust when taking into account peer results and official ABS data.
The Neutral rating and target price of $26.30 are retained.
Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $25.53 Difference: $0.77
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.62, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 172.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.7, implying annual growth of -16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 159.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.1, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -
Following the February reporting season, Morgan Stanley has conviction on earnings and outperformance for Premier Investments.
Should the consumer continue to be resilient, the analysts feel exposure to Premier is the most desirable in the small/mid cap space. This is due to around $400m in net cash and a strong track record by management, which is strongly aligned to shareholder interests.
The broker also notes offshore expansion opportunities for Smiggle and Peter Alexander.
The Overweight rating and $30.50 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $25.53 Difference: $4.97
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.62, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 109.10 cents and EPS of 155.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.7, implying annual growth of -16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 104.20 cents and EPS of 148.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.1, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $113.99
Ord Minnett rates RIO as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Rio Tinto to Hold from Lighten after a recent share price decline.
No changes are made to the broker's forecasts and the $107 target is unchanged.
Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $113.99 Difference: minus $6.99 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $116.79, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1077.78 cents and EPS of 1795.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1126.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 666.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1162.26 cents and EPS of 1945.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1084.7, implying annual growth of -3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 786.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.42
Macquarie rates SGR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Macquarie resumes coverage of Star Entertainment post its equity raising, observing a large earnings discrepancy between consensus input forecasts.
The broker applies an Outperform rating (which compares with its last rating in the FNArena data base on February 13 of Hold), and a target price of $1.65 ($1.55 in February), with the proviso that much depends on the NSW tax outcome ($300m of penalties compares with the company's $150m provision).
The broker expects the company can cushion some of the blow by cutting capital and operating expenditure and believes the share market is factoring in a worst-case scenario.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.23
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.8, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.02
Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -
West African Resources's FY23 full-year result outpaced Macquarie's forecasts and production and all-in-sustaining cost guidance was retained.
Management retierated its plan to fund Kiaka frm existing cash, debt and internal cash flows.
The broker expects the company will announce its annural resoure/reserve and new 10-year production outlook within weeks, and observes details of the company's debt package are expected in the June quarter.
Outperform rating retained. Target price of $1.70, compares with the last entry of $1.60 in the FNArena data base in February.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.675
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
IPL | Incitec Pivot | $3.24 | Citi | 3.95 | 3.70 | 6.76% |
Morgan Stanley | 4.10 | 5.05 | -18.81% | |||
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | $42.24 | Morgans | 48.00 | 53.00 | -9.43% |
LOV | Lovisa Holdings | $22.72 | Morgans | 28.50 | 29.00 | -1.72% |
ORI | Orica | $15.04 | Ord Minnett | 16.10 | 15.60 | 3.21% |
SGR | Star Entertainment | $1.47 | Macquarie | 1.65 | 1.55 | 6.45% |
UNI | Universal Store | $4.99 | Morgans | 6.85 | 7.00 | -2.14% |
WAF | West African Resources | $1.00 | Macquarie | 1.70 | 1.60 | 6.25% |
Summaries
AMI | Aurelia Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.12 |
ASX | ASX | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $66.58 |
AUB | AUB Group | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $24.35 |
CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.49 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.84 |
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.84 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $2.84 | ||
HLS | Healius | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.01 |
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.01 | ||
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.01 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.01 | ||
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.49 |
IPL | Incitec Pivot | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.12 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.12 | ||
NCM | Newcrest Mining | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $25.65 |
ORI | Orica | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $15.12 |
PMV | Premier Investments | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $25.53 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $25.53 | ||
RIO | Rio Tinto | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $113.99 |
SGR | Star Entertainment | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.42 |
WAF | West African Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.02 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 9 |
2. Accumulate | 3 |
3. Hold | 7 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Tuesday 21 March 2023
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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