Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

After the Andoid App Store reportedly announced a reduction in take rate to 15% from 30% of initial subscriptions, Morgan Stanley feels the odds for its bull case for Life360 are improving.

The move could materially change the market's assessment of terminal margins and earnings power, according to the analyst. Typically iOS has moved in tandem on pricing. The Overweight rating and $10.50 target price are retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.47 Difference: $1.03
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees the takeover offer for Over the Wire ((OTW)) has the potential to accelerate Aussie Broadband's business offering. The indicative proposal price is $5.75 per share, and includes a yet-to-be-determined mix of cash and scrip.

On a pro-forma basis, the analyst estimates the transaction will likely be earnings per share accretive. It's noted Over the Wire has a lower level of organic growth relative to Aussie Broadband. The $5.60 target price and Buy rating are retained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.68
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Citi's estimates are -1.5% below consensus for the FY21 result. This is largely because of lower markets income expectations.

Mitigating this is lower bad debts and the broker forecasts a provision release of $154m in the fourth quarter.

The bank will report its results on October 28 and Citi retains a Sell rating with a $28 target.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $28.21 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.60, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APT as No Rating (-1) -

While merchants like Afterpay may chose not to surcharge, Morgan Stanley feels the ability to do so, after the RBA's Retail Payments Review, is a negative for BNPL providers in general. It's thought the reform will place downwards pressure on BNPL industry fees.

The RBA doesn’t have powers to impose the rules as yet, but will work with Treasury to create new regulations.

The broker has no rating or target at present. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $126.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APT as Neutral (3) -

UBS had always suspected that the "no surcharge" rules of the BNPL sector would eventually be prohibited. The Payments System Board has concluded that it would be the public interest if these rules were removed so that merchants can apply a surcharge to payments if they wish.

The broker considers this is a materially negative development for the likes of Afterpay, particularly given its reliance on high merchant fees to fund its economics, and places completion risk on the proposed acquisition by Square.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and $140 target, based of the takeover offer by Square. This compares with its fundamental valuation of $44 a share.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $126.00 Difference: $14
If APT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as No Rating (-1) -

Aurizon Holdings has acquired One Rail for $2.35bn. The coal assets will be divested or de-merged after the acquisition. Management expects the transaction to be 10% accretive and bulk earnings should rise by $80m to $220m and increase the bulks share of above-rail revenue to 40%.

One Rail provides intermodal and bulk freight in South Australia Northern Territory as well as operating the track of the Tarcoola to Darwin section. Macquarie is unable to provide a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $3.65. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

While Morgan Stanley likes the diversification away from coal there will be higher leverage as a result of Aurizon Holdings' agreement to acquire OneRail. The intention to sell OneRail's coal haulage business is thought to also add divestment execution risk.

The transactions are consistent with the company's stated strategy of growing Bulk (non-coal) earnings, explains the analyst. It's estimated FY23 non-coal earnings (EBITDA) increase to 36% from 31% of Above Rail, including $7-10m of synergies.

The Underweight rating and $3.92 target price are retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.27
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30% to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

After updating for the above, the analyst raises Beach Energy's target price to $1.70 from $1.40 and maintains the Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.32
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Citi updates its modelling following upwardly revised guidance. The company expects first half EBIT in the range of $2.1-2.3bn.

The main driver is North Star spreads, better Australian steel volumes and strong momentum in North American coated products. More detail will be provided at the AGM scheduled for November 18.

Citi maintains a Buy rating and $27.50 target.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $20.64 Difference: $6.86
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.34, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope raised first half earnings (EBIT) guidance to $2.1-2.3bn from $1.8–2bn, in-line with Ord Minnett's $2.1bn estimate prior to the upgrade. However, the broker forecasts the first half should be the peak half in earnings this cycle. The target falls to $33 from $35.

The analyst reiterates a Buy rating and remains positive on steel market conditions (excluding China), with East Asia prices likely to be supported by any reduction in China exports. It's also noted US steel capacity utilisation rates remain relatively high at 85%

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $20.64 Difference: $12.36
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.34, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRW as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett believes the takeover offer by ANZ Bank's ((ANZ)) innovation and investment arm, 1835i, for Cashrewards is likely to proceed. This is because the existing 19% shareholder (1835i) is the natural acquirer, and it has recently extended a $15m loan to Cashrewards.

On a reduced likelihood of a superior offer, the broker reduces its rating to Accumulate from Buy and lowers its target price to $1.30 from $2.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.2
If CRW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

The AGM update was largely in line with Macquarie's expectations. Coronavirus-related restrictions have cost the company -$4m in EBITDA per month yet large parts of the CDS network have returned to service in mid-September and are now fully operational.

Macquarie assesses new management has a solid foundation on which to build, with the acquisition of the Suez assets to provide the next catalyst. Cleanaway Waste Management expects the ACCC to complete its assessment of this purchase shortly.

Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $3.20 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.36
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the challenging conditions across the core business yet believes momentum will improve from the second quarter as Australasian markets reopen.

The broker also suspects investors will ascribe a higher value to the property assets as the company has successfully executed on some divestments.

Event Hospitality plans to generate $250m from property divestments by FY23, of which 43% has been completed. The AGM has indicated that Germany is the "bright spot" in the outlook, amid strong admissions.

Citi reiterates a Buy rating and raises the target to $18.65 from $17.70.

Target price is $18.65 Current Price is $15.99 Difference: $2.66
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

FY22 revenue guidance is unchanged at EUR125-130m and this implies 17.7% revenue growth at the mid point. Macquarie notes it also includes subscription revenue guidance of around 30%.

The broker also notes the company has a number of cross-selling and up-selling opportunities with existing clients as well as new opportunities.

Outperform rating and $4.92 target price maintained.

Target price is $4.92 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $1.02
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

Assuming the takeover of Aventus Group ((AVN)) involving Homeco Daily Needs ((HDN)) goes ahead, Credit Suisse calculates assets under management will increase to $5bn.

Home Consortium is paying 7% of total consideration. FY22 earnings guidance has been upgraded to $0.26 per security and distribution guidance is unchanged at $0.12.

Credit Suisse revises FY22, FY23 and FY24 estimates up by 42.5%, 6.6% and 3.7%, while acknowledging there is downside risk to estimates in the transaction does not proceed. The broker raises the target to $7.53 from $5.87 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $7.53 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting downside of -17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUM as Outperform (1) -

Most divisions were broadly in line in the first quarter and Macquarie notes the second quarter should experience benefits from seasonality and an easing of restrictions as well as increases in travel expenditure.

Net losses were higher than the broker expected in BNPL and Australian cards but this should be offset by provision releases.

Macquarie believes provision releases should support earnings along with a recovery in Australian card volumes. Outperform rating and $1.20 target maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.29
If HUM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUM as Buy (1) -

Volume growth was 40% and ahead of expectations. Yet UBS points out comparables will become more challenging from the second quarter. There was continued momentum in BNPL volumes and a strong result in commercial.

Card volumes were -30% lower, reflecting the impact of lockdowns and the travel exposure in this division. Forecasts are broadly unchanged.

The broker does not believe the company is priced for growth or success in its geographic expansion and new product initiatives, yet suspects investors require greater confidence in the ability to grow net profit in order to re-rate the stock.

Buy rating and $1.45 target maintained.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.54
If HUM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

In a trading update, Insurance Australia Group has left guidance unchanged for gross written premium growth (GWP) and margins. Morgan Stanley estimates gross savings in Q1 of  around $130m, which could increase the H1 insurance margin uplift of around 3.5%.

While Q1 GWP growth was a slight improvement, management cautioned there will portfolio remediation in broker lines.The Equal-weight rating and target price of $4.80 are retained. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAG as Add (1) -

Insurance Australia Group's FY22 trading update is positive and management reiterates FY22 guidance but warns of higher risks.

Morgans downgrades earnings less than -1% and shaves -1c from the target price to $5.64.

Add rating retained, the broker admiring the undemanding price-earnings multiple.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $0.53
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett maintains its Overweight rating and $5.35 target price for Insurance Australia Group after a trading update at its AGM. Guidance for the gross written premium (GWP) and underlying margin were reaffirmed.

The analyst's forecast earnings do not reflect any benefit from the unwinding of business interruption (BI) insurance. It's estimated this could approach nearly $1bn, if the current second test case findings are upheld.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $0.24
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30% to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

Karoon Energy is one of the broker's two Overweight-rated companies in the sector. The target price rises to $2.10 from $1.85. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.45
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGX as Buy (1) -

Citi was disappointed with the September quarter. There was limited access to the main pit at Koolan Island so grades were lower than expected. The company expects to be encountering higher grade material later this year.

Low prices have forced a suspension of Shine. The site is being ramped down this month and cash flow was negative -$17m in the quarter.

Citi reduces estimates for net profit in FY22 and FY23 by -38% a -23%, respectively. Buy/High Risk rating maintained. Target is 60c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.15
If MGX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

In a first reaction to today's announcement, Macquarie notes the re-start of the first train at the Wodgina lithium mine is a positive for Mineral Resources. Further, first production by the end of September 2022 at the MARBL Lithium JV is one year earlier than expected.

The broker currently assumes full production capacity is reached by the end of FY27. The Outperform rating and $72 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $39.38 Difference: $32.62
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.00, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Megaport's September-quarter report pleased Morgans, outpacing the broker on some metrics.

The company's annual recurring revenue has breached $100m, a major milestone achieved through direct sales.

The broker expects sales to accelerate in the March quarter and beyond given recent investment in the commercial offering, product and engineering. 

While long term bulls, Morgans retains a Hold rating, hoping to secure a better opportunity over the year. Target price is steady at $17.71.

Target price is $17.71 Current Price is $17.55 Difference: $0.16
If MP1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.68, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell and raises the target to $200 from $153. The broker has also upgraded earnings forecasts by 8-10% out to FY24, to reflect a combination of lower FX assumptions and higher commodity revenue.

The broker expects the continued volatility in energy markets will benefit the commodities division. First half results are due on October 29.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $199.06 Difference: $0.94
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.62, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating though raises its target price for Macquarie Group to $207 from $190. The analyst's earnings upgrades now places the broker around 3% above consensus forecasts, as it considers the FY22 net profit consensus is conservative.

Ord Minnett's forecast is for a FY22 net profit of $3.56bn, up 18% on FY21. The forecast has been lifted on higher M&A income, commodities income and mortgage growth.

Target price is $207.00 Current Price is $199.06 Difference: $7.94
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.62, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects, when the bank reports its results on November 9, net interest margins of 1.73% for the year and zero bad debt charges in the fourth quarter.

The broker revises sector assumptions and lowers bad debt forecasts while upgrading earnings forecasts by 2-5% across FY21-23. Neutral rating and $26.75 target unchanged.

Target price is $26.75 Current Price is $28.86 Difference: minus $2.11 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEA as Neutral (3) -

Nearmap is expanding its offering and developing specific solutions, emerging as an insight/solutions provider from just a data provider.

Citi suspects this could reduce customer churn and considers it a potential catalyst ahead of the trading update at the AGM.

The Neutral/High Risk rating is retained because of risks associated with the legal case. Target is $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.06
If NEA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Orocobre can leverage the lithium market in the near term via Mount Cattlin spodumene as well as participate in the long-term structural growth via its advanced stage development program.

Olaroz was weaker than expected in the September quarter while Mount Cattlin was better. Orocobre was affected by an increase in gas prices and pandemic-related costs.

Citi revises FY22-23 earnings up by 2-7% largely on because of better price guidance and increased volume guidance for Mount Cattlin. Buy rating is reiterated. Target is $11.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: $1.85
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORE as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse considers the September quarter production "mixed". Mount Cattlin production guidance for 2021 is revised up to 210-220,000t and unit cost guidance lowered to US$390-420/t.

A strong performance at Mount Cattlin was offset by soft sales volumes. The broker envisages material upside risk to estimates over the next six months as contract price negotiations appear to be converging to higher spot prices.

Credit Suisse retains an Underperform rating on valuation grounds and raises the target to $8.70 from $8.60.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORE as Outperform (1) -

Orocobre's first quarter result was mixed with strong volumes at Mount Cattlin offset by higher costs at Olaroz. Macquarie notes this is the first time production has been declared for all assets post the merger with Galaxy Resources.

The company has upgraded price and volume guidance for Mount Cattlin for 2021. Incorporating updated pricing and guidance means a 7% lift to Macquarie's FY22 forecasts and FY23 is also upgraded by 3%.

Meanwhile, projects are progressing and a maiden reserve for James Bay is due at the end of the year.

Outperformed maintained. Target rises to $12.00 from $11.80.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: $2.85
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -

In the wake of Orocobre's September quarter result and updated December quarter guidance, Morgan Stanley raises its target price to $8.65 from $8.45. Equal-weight maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

The analyst points out that within the guidance, December quarter pricing and shipments are lower versus the broker's expectation, driven by inflation and congestion.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Follwoing a first quarter production update by Orocobre, Ord Minnett lowers near-term earnings estimates due to reduced sales volumes
at Olaroz. The analyst retains the Buy rating and notes the company remains a key pick in the lithium sector.

The analyst points out the sales and cost performance at Mt Cattlin were very strong, resulting in positive revisions to guidance. The target price of $10.40 is unchanged.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: $1.25
If ORE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30%, to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

After updating for the above, the analyst raises Origin Energy's target price to $5.75 from $5.05. Equal-weight retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.57
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OSH as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30% to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

After updating for the above, the analyst raises Oil Search's target price to $5.50 from $4.50 and retains the Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $1.17
If OSH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Following September quarter results for Oz Minerals, Morgan Stanley lowers its target price to $23.20 from $23.50. This comes as copper grades at Carrapateena were lower and mining grades and tonnages were also lower at Prominent Hill.

The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $24.95 Difference: minus $1.75 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.83, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Hold (3) -

After a first glance at St Barbara's Q1 results, Ord Minnett assesses they are slightly better than the broker's expectations. Production was a 12% beat with higher grades at Gwalia more than offsetting lower grades out of Atlantic due to an increased stockpile contribution.

This also led to led to a 10% beat for all-in sustaining costs (AISC) though the analyst points out that cash was a miss due to a combination of lower gold sales, investments, working capital and higher corporate costs. FY22 guidance appears unchanged to the broker.

The Hold rating and $1.50 target price are maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

FY22 guidance has been reaffirmed at underlying EBITA of $320-330m. Macquarie notes underwriting agencies have achieved strong organic growth.

The broker believes upside risk exists to estimates for FY22 and particularly FY23, while factoring in the company executing on the potential $26m of M&A.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $5.30 target.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.51
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SDF as Accumulate (2) -

Following a trading update at Steadfast Group's AGM, Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating and $5.32 target price. FY22 earnings (EBITA) guidance was unchanged and implies to the broker growth of 24% on FY21.

First quarter earnings are 13.4% ahead of the same period last year, and the analyst expects this growth run rate to improve further. This because the Coverforce acquisition was only completed part-way through Q1. Additional small acquisitions are also planned.

Target price is $5.32 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.53
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIQ as Accumulate (2) -

SmartGroup Corp has announced the cessation of talks on the non-binding indicative offer from US private equity firm TPG Global and Potential Capital (consortium) for $10.35. This comes as the offer was reduced to $9.25, with no stated reasons.

In an initial reaction, Ord Minnett expects some share price weakness, given shares were trading below $8 prior to the bid. The broker retains its Accumulate rating and $9.85 target price, and as per standard practice, will be reviewing both.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $0.51
If SIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SLA as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett lowers its rating for Silk Laser Australia to Accumulate from Buy, after a strong recent run in the share price. The target price rises to $5.15 from $4.85, after the September quarter was 5% ahead of the broker's expectations.

The analyst notes the company continues to self-fund growth towards its 150-clinic target from 118. 

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $0.24
If SLA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30% to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

In particular the broker points to Santos, which has significant LNG exposure, and lifts its target price to $10.20 from $8.60. The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $3.16
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.34, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Outperform (1) -

Strike Energy reported closing cash of $52m at the end of the first quarter. Macquarie notes this is sufficient to get it through the current drilling program until $75m in project finance becomes available to fund West Erregulla surface development.

The broker believes the market is waiting for the company to prove South Erregulla, Project Haber and geothermal and, given some recent disappointments, believes this is understandable.

A successful outcome and South Erregulla should improve sentiment markedly, Macquarie adds. Outperform rating and $0.50 target retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.32
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 178% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Add (1) -

Transurban Group's first-quarter data reveals continued weak traffic (as expected given lockdowns and former management guidance).

Morgans downgrades FY21 earnings -1% given a traffic recovery is unlikely to outpace higher corporate costs (related to SaaS accounting). 

Issuance for the WestConnex acquisition and budget overruns for the West Gate Tunnel Project costs may also weigh.

FY22 earnings -7% and FY23-24 earnings -1% to -2%. Dividend is downgraded 12% to 34c per share.

Target price eases to $14.79 from $14.82.

Add rating retained to reflect a potential total shareholder return of 10% including a 2.5% cash yield, with quarterly CPI increases a potential catalyst.

Target price is $14.79 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: $1.04
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.97, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Westpac will announce a $5bn off market buyback at the upcoming result on November 1. Management had previously deferred this to address capital management.

Buy rating and $30 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.74 Difference: $4.26
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.37, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse upgrades forecasts following the AGM. A normalisation of expenditure in retail, i.e. Bunnings and Officeworks, could weigh on sentiment over the short term yet the expansion of new and other businesses is where the growth opportunity lies, in the broker's view.

Credit Suisse assesses growth initiatives are developing nicely, particularly Mount Holland lithium, with first sales expected in FY24, the expansion of ammonia production and expansion into adjacencies for the home improvement segments.

The Neutral rating is retained. Target is raised to $60.38 from $59.91.

Target price is $60.38 Current Price is $57.31 Difference: $3.07
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.82, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates Z1P as Sell (5) -

UBS had always suspected that the "no surcharge" rules of the BNPL sector would eventually be prohibited. The Payments System Board has concluded that it would be the public interest if these rules were removed so that merchants can apply a surcharge to payments if they wish.

The broker considers this an incrementally negative development for Zip, noting the company is more reliant on consumer fees to fund its economics.

UBS retains a Sell rating and $5.40 target.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: minus $1.56 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.31, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources