Australian Broker Call
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August 14, 2024
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AZJ - | Aurizon Holdings | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
BPT - | Beach Energy | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
CGF - | Challenger | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
CSL - | CSL | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
NWL - | Netwealth Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie | ||
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett | ||
SEK - | Seek | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $10.81
Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -
In a first response to today's FY24 release by AGL Energy, Macquarie sees an overall neutral outcome. The broker highlights FY25 has had a strong start with a cold winter, providing favourable spot opportunities.
Positive is electricity pricing trends for FY26, i.e. flat on pcp, which suggest FY25 earnings can be held in FY26, the broker adds.
Earnings growth from batteries and renewables is only likely to emerge in FY26 and onwards, on Macquarie's assessment.
The company's outlook is stronger than expected coming through wholesale electricity performance, but Macquarie sees offset through pressure on consumer margins.
Neutral. Target $11.28.
Target price is $11.28 Current Price is $10.81 Difference: $0.47
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.91, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 89.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.5, implying annual growth of -23.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.17
Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -
In a first glance at today's FY24 result by Amotiv, Citi observes earnings (EBITA) of $194.6m are consistent with management's guidance for “at least” $193.5m and the consensus estimate for $193.2m.
The analyst suggests the result is a reasonable outcome and should be well received by the market in light of recent share price weakness, an undemanding valuation and recent fears about New Zealand.
Management attributed the -60bps earnings margin fall (compared to the previous corresponding period) to offshore growth initiatives.
Strength in towing and functional accessories appear to have helped earnings for the APG business to meet guidance set in May, points out the analyst.
Buy rating. Target $12.80.
Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $10.17 Difference: $2.63
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.72, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.50 cents and EPS of 71.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.2, implying annual growth of 11.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.40 cents and EPS of 82.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.5, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.25
Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -
Financing costs remain a headwind for Abacus Storage King, Citi observes, despite growth from acquisitions and the development pipeline.
The REIT reported a decline in the cap rate by -2 basis points to 5.55%, reflecting a slight improvement in valuations with the broker noting flat gearing of 27.3%.
Average cost of debt at 3.5% underpins rising finance costs as the rate normalises, compared to peers, according to Citi.
The analyst stresses Abacus Storage King is an externally managed REIT and as such tends to trade at a discount compared to internally managed REITs.
Buy rating and $1.40 target price unchanged.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.15
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 1.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Shaw and Partners rates ASK as Buy (1) -
Shaw and Partners continues to like Abacus Storage King pointing to the strength of the balance sheet at 27.5% gearing post the sale of the stake in National Storage REIT ((NSR)).
The broker notes to a slight slowdown in revenue per stores, with occupancy rising in the 2H24 on the 1H24.
A net tangible asset valuation of $1.58 supports the broker's $1.35 target price, the analyst asserts, while the refinancing to an unsecured loan from a secured bank debt is viewed as reflective of the asset quality.
Buy rating and $1.35 target unchanged.
Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.1
If ASK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 1.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.02
Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy (1) -
Shaw and Partners observes the strength in the US and Chinese battery storage market with Australia needing increased electricity generation and "matched" energy storage.
The broker emphasises Australian Vanadium's Vanadium Flow Batteries are very suitable for large scale storage and macro demand remains robust as part of the energy transition.
The first phase of the feasibility study for the vanadium project is completed and the company continues to progress with approval processes, offtake agreements and financing options.
Buy rating and 8c target unchanged. High risk.
Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.06
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 300% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $3.31
Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett can't hide the disappointment over the Aurizon Holdings' FY24 earnings report.
The broker points to weaker than expected results for all segments of network, coal and bulk, resulting in EPS downgrades for FY25/FY26 of -17% and -15%, respectively.
In FY25, the analyst forecasts coal to generate strong earnings before interest and tax (32% in FY24) and network (58% in FY24) to be the mainstay of earnings.
Bulk generated $101m post the -$2bn investment since FY22. The broker awaits higher earnings, stating bulk needs to contribute to convince the market the strategy is working.
Ord Minnett downgrades the stock to Hold from Accumulate and cuts the target price to $3.60 from $4.10.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.29
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 247.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of -64.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.27
Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -
Due to development challenges and ongoing reserve headwinds, Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Beach Energy to $1.18 from $1.45 and downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive.
The broker is worried by potential for further downgrades after a further -12.5MMboe of reserve downgrades (5% of total) following management's June 18 strategic review which also downgraded reserves by -19MMboe.
Management stated growth options won't be prioritised until delivery of the Otway and Waitsia developments, and delivery of production cost targets.
Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 22.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates BWP as Sell (5) -
After making an early assessment, Citi anticipates a relatively muted share price response from today's stable set of FY24 results by BWP Trust.
A dividend of 8.29cpu was in line with forecasts by consensus and the broker, and the REIT is guiding to 2% growth in DPS for FY25, broadly in line with expectations by both.
In the analyst's view, gearing remains relatively prudent at 21.5%. Sell rating. Target $3.40.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 215.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAR CAR GROUP LIMITED
Online media & mobile platforms
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Overnight Price: $35.20
Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -
Following CAR Group's FY24 result and outlook commentary, Morgan Stanley raises its target to $42 from $40. The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive.
The broker considers its expertise around CAR Group revolves around an understanding of Media, where 2H and FY24 revenue growth were a standout at 18% and 20%, respectively. Media is where the company sells digital display/banner advertisements.
Morgan Stanley disagrees with the consensus view the Media division is mature, and growth is limited to upswings in the overall advertising cycle.
Overall, the analysts see further upside for not only for the core Australian business, but also the global businesses.
Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $35.20 Difference: $6.8
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.48, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 85.20 cents and EPS of 105.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.6, implying annual growth of 47.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.6. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 98.90 cents and EPS of 122.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $132.52
Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -
Citi's first take on the CommBank FY24 results reveals cash earnings meeting its own and consensus estimates.
The results were very unsurprising, except for the 2H24 net interest margin of 2%, which is slightly above forecasts by the broker and consensus.
Interestingly, troubled and impaired assets went up with personal/mortgage arrears back at pre-covid levels.
Citi observes loan loss provisions are "solid" and the balance sheet is well capitalised enough to support improved dividends of 485c versus the 455c estimate with the extended share buy-back.
Sell rated. Target price $85.
Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $132.52 Difference: minus $47.52 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $97.19, suggesting downside of -27.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 455.00 cents and EPS of 590.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 585.4, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 457.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 455.00 cents and EPS of 578.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 579.1, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 459.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -
In an initial response to today's FY24 release by CommBank, Macquarie analysts comment they saw yet another clean, in line result.
Expenses were higher (including -$89m restructuring charge), offset by stronger revenues, with a margin beat.
Given the margin beat and the likely delayed impact of potential rate cuts, the broker sees a risk of small consensus EPS upgrades on the back of today's result.
There is, however, still that same dilemma regarding CommBank's valuation... Underperform and $95 target.
Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $132.52 Difference: minus $37.52 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $97.19, suggesting downside of -27.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 460.00 cents and EPS of 588.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 585.4, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 457.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 460.00 cents and EPS of 556.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 579.1, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 459.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -
UBS's early response to today's FY24 release by CommBank: "In-line result but not enough in our view given current market rating".
The broker has spotted a "solid underlying result". The H2 stabilisation in the net interest margin (NIM) is highlighted as the stand-out feature.
Sell rating.
Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $132.52 Difference: minus $22.52 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $97.19, suggesting downside of -27.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 451.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 585.4, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 457.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 449.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 579.1, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 459.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.33
Citi rates CGF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
An unexpected but most welcome improvement in the capital position for Challenger has Citi all fired up about the outlook and increased optionality to grow, with more protection on asset price declines.
The broker emphasises the improvement to 1.67x on the protection capital account coincides with momentum in the Life business and the ability to improve the return on equity via efficiency gains.
Management has not revealed the earnings accretion from the Accenture deal but the broker expects a $8m-$10m benefit in FY25.
Notably, life product margins increased 15 basis points over FY24 and 9 basis points in the 2H24.
The stock is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target price lifts to $8.30 from $6.95.
Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.33 Difference: $0.97
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 61.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 65.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
Challenger's FY24 results showed the Life business beating consensus by 2.4%. The final dividend also surprised Macquarie to the upside, and extremely strong capital ratios should allay capital raising concerns over the medium term.
Most importantly for the broker, Challenger believes the mid-point of its FY25 profit guidance will allow the company to achieve its return on equity targets.
The next step is to execute, says Macquarie.
Target falls to $7.00 from $7.30. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.33 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 59.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 66.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley describes a somewhat mixed FY24 result and outlook for Challenger. While it's thought return on equity (ROE) could be peaking in FY25, net book growth is expected to continue.
Statutory profit missed the broker's expectation by around -50% on a negative 2H investment experience driven by a weaker performance from Alternatives and a larger negative AASB17 impact on Life Risk liability.
FY25 profit guidance was around -2% shy of the consensus forecast, observes Morgan Stanley.
The target falls to $7.20 from $7.40. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.33 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 51.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 53.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CGF as Buy (1) -
UBS acknowledges the FY24 results from Challenger have confirmed the company''s transition from the covid blues with Life margins 3% above expectations and the business reflecting improved capital management.
The tailwinds which advanced the earnings growth for Life are anticipated to continue into FY25. Super funds are likely to continue to partner with retirement income solutions.
The broker notes funds management earnings declined -15% with Challenger reliant on institutional flows as retail remains net negative.
UBS tweaks FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by 1-2%. Target price is lifted 4% to $8.30. Buy.
Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.33 Difference: $0.97
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 66.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CNI CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP
Diversified Financials
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Overnight Price: $1.55
Morgan Stanley rates CNI as Overweight (1) -
When Centuria Capital reports FY24 results on August 22, Morgan Stanley will be seeking more clarity around the transfer of some assets to Region Group ((RGN)).
At recent FY24 results, Region confirmed the establishment of a $394m Metro Fund 2 with various Daily Needs Retail assets.
The broker believes the assets in this fund had previously been managed by Centuria Capital and it looks like the latter has now lost -$394m of property assets under management (AUM) due to the transfer.
Overweight rating. Target $2.03. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.48
If CNI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of -10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $26.94
Citi rates CPU as Buy (1) -
Despite a slightly higher tax rate, Computershare reported FY24 earnings which were marginally above Citi estimates.
Notably, margin income exceeded guidance, some 2% above forecasts and consensus, with a rise in structured debt issuance benefitting both the balance and mix, according to the broker.
An 8% increase in costs arising from inflation and projects was highlighted by Citi, with a cost out program of -US$45m-US$60m by the end of FY26, as the business reconfigures post the sale of US mortgage servicing and the consultant business., KCC.
Computershare's reported US42c final dividend was -US3c below the broker's estimate.
Citi believes this was a challenging result to analyse but the analyst's initial impressions are the positives outweigh the negatives.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.94 Difference: $3.06
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.87, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 129.69 cents and EPS of 179.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 137.32 cents and EPS of 189.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.4, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -
Computershare's management EPS metric for FY24 beat forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by 3% and 1%, respectively, and FY25 guidance is also 0.5% ahead of estimates by both.
The analysts note most divisions' revenues were solid in FY24.
Target $29.40. Overweight. Sector view is In-Line.
Target price is $29.40 Current Price is $26.94 Difference: $2.46
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.87, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 80.50 cents and EPS of 175.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 190.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.4, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $294.78
Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -
A slower improvement in the Behring gross margins of 150 basis points against the 200 basis point estimated is the reason for lower-than-expected FY25 guidance from CSL, Citi analysts explain.
The company reported FY24 earnings which were -1% below consensus. Behring revenues advanced 14%, with operating earnings up 18%.
Seqirus revenues advanced 4% but Citi notes management expects "flattish" revenue in a declining market as vaccination rates have declined by double-digits over the last three flu seasons.
Vifor reported sales some -1% below expectations. The broker points to challenging conditions from generic competition in the EU on the iron franchise.
Management reconfirmed the Behring recovery stance to around 58% gross margins (same as pre-covid) by FY26-FY28, with Citi more aligned with the FY28 target.
Citi revises net profit forecasts by -3% and -4% for FY25/FY26, respectively. Lower capex boosts the target price to $345 from $335. Maintain Buy rating.
Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $294.78 Difference: $50.22
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $324.90, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 474.52 cents and EPS of 1021.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1061.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 470.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 546.23 cents and EPS of 1158.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1204.9, implying annual growth of 13.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 562.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -
CSL's FY24 earnings were in line with Macquarie. Divisionally, gross profit for Behring met expectations, while Seqirus and Vifor were ahead. Gross profit for Behring rose by 16% year on year, representing 92% of the improvement for the group.
CSL continues to forecast annual double-digit earnings growth and a return to pre-covid margin of 57% for Behring by FY26-28.
Macquarie continues to see medium to longer term earnings growth as favourable for CSL, supported by improved fundamentals for
CSL Behring, with the current share price marked as an attractive entry point.
Outperform and $330 target retained.
Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $294.78 Difference: $35.22
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $324.90, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 474.52 cents and EPS of 1039.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1061.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 470.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 592.01 cents and EPS of 1278.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1204.9, implying annual growth of 13.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 562.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CSL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
CSL reported FY24 earnings which were 2% above Ord Minnett's estimates and ahead of guidance.
Behring recorded results which met expectations, with Seqiris and Vifor ahead of the broker's forecasts.
FY25 net profit guidance of 10%-13% growth was lower than expectations of 15%-16%, but the analyst notes guidance is normally conservative.
Ord Minnett adjusts EPS forecasts by 2% for FY25-FY8 and expects CSL can generate compound average earnings growth of 13% between FY25-FY28.
Rating upgraded to Accumulate. Target price revised to $319 from $317.30.
Target price is $319.00 Current Price is $294.78 Difference: $24.22
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $324.90, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1061.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 470.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1204.9, implying annual growth of 13.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 562.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.15
Shaw and Partners rates DRO as Buy (1) -
Shaw and Partners highlights the completion of a $120m equity placement for DroneShield with -$90m targetted for R&D, -$20m in acquisitions and the balance for working capital/costs.
The analyst reaffirms DroneShield achieving revenues of $300m-$500m in FY28 post the sustained investment in R&D.
A new board member has been appointed to enhance governance. Buy rated with a $1.30 target with macro geopolitical risks acting as a tailwind.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.15
If DRO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.89
Macquarie rates DXI as Outperform (1) -
On Macquarie's early assessment, Dexus Industria REIT's FY24 reported FFOps met guidance and expectations. Guidance for 17.8c in FY25 meets Macquarie's estimate and compares to 17.6c for market consensus.
The REIT's NTA of $3.24ps was down -2% or 8cps since December with the broker highlighting this is predominantly driven by property portfolio devaluations.
Outperform. Target $3.11.
Target price is $3.11 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.22
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 17.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 21525.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 17.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.81
Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -
In an early assessment of today's FY24 result for Evolution Mining, Citi suspects the market will approve of the outcome following beats of 10% and 15% against consensus forecasts for underlying earnings (EBITDA) and profit.
FY25 guidance is in line (production) or better-than-expected by the broker (costs) - the AISC metric guidance is in a range of $1475-1575/oz.
Normalising for management's copper assumption of $14,350/t versus consensus of $15,160/t, implied costs are much better, highlights Citi.
Target price $4.40. Buy rating.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $0.59
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 153.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.8, implying annual growth of 80.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates EVN as Outperform (1) -
On Macquarie's early assessment, today's FY24 by Evolution Mining and FY25 guidance were both better than market consensus.
FY25 production, AISC and growth capex guidance were broadly in line. The final (fully franked) dividend of 5c takes the total FY24 payout to 7.0c, -1.0c below the broker's estimate. Net debt proved higher than expected.
Outperform rating. Target price $3.81.
Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $0
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 153.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.8, implying annual growth of 80.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $48.37
Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -
The recovery in demand for James Hardie Industries is pushed out again to FY26 by Citi, with several factors weighing on the company which accounted for 2H25 volume guidance volumes underwhelming.
1Q25 results were better than forecast, but the mix was varied. Improved corporate costs and R&D, down -8%, offset a -2% decline on the quarter-on-quarter North American volumes.
Citi likes James Hardie Industries, but the delayed recovery in the restorations and renovations North American market, and macro headwinds, imply a further delay in the earnings recovery.
The broker revises EPS forecasts by -3.2% and -2.6% in FY25/FY26, respectively.
Neutral rating unchanged. Target price is tweaked to $50.90 from $51.10.
Target price is $50.90 Current Price is $48.37 Difference: $2.53
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.68, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 230.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 265.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.8, implying annual growth of 19.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -
James Hardie Industries' first quarter FY25 results beat Macquarie's expectations, with margins being a key driver. The pace of operational improvement enabled by manufacturing and operating efficiency appears strong to the broker.
The group is managing discretionary Selling, General & Administrative investment lower too. James Hardie is positioned for recovery in US R&R activity, Macquarie notes, having made progress in cost and working capital reduction while investing in market development.
Guidance for the second quarter is nonetheless weaker than expected, driven by softening in both New and R&R activity.
Target falls to $64.00 from $66.60, Outperform retained.
Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $48.37 Difference: $15.63
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.68, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 236.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 296.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.8, implying annual growth of 19.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -
While FY25 guidance was maintained by James Hardie Industries, softer Q2 guidance surprised Morgan Stanley, endangering the top end of FY25 guidance, barring a rapid improvement in the building market.
First quarter results were in line with the broker's forecasts. Even though the macroeconomic backdrop is expected to remain
challenging in the near-term, management has demonstrated an ability to mitigate weakness through price, mix and share growth.
The Overweight rating is retained and the target rises to $59 from $58. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $48.37 Difference: $10.63
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.68, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 227.34 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 271.59 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.8, implying annual growth of 19.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates JHX as Hold (3) -
James Hardie Industries reported better than forecast earnings for the June quarter result, above Ord Minnett's expectations by 5% and by 6% for consensus.
Market conditions remain challenging for the company, with North American demand soft for the repair and remodel market as well as for new building. The broker highlights the expected -4% decline in the North American fibre cement volumes in the 2Q25.
Ord Minnett believes there are downside risks to earnings forecasts with the 2H25 needed to do the heavy lifting on earnings, due to the soft current trading conditions in what is historically a strong September quarter season.
EPS forecasts are trimmed by -2% for FY25 and -4% for FY26. Hold rating unchanged. Revised target of $53 from $55.
Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $48.37 Difference: $4.63
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.68, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.8, implying annual growth of 19.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -
UBS observes the 2Q25 guidance from James Hardie Industries was weaker than expected, with ongoing contraction in volumes.
The broker has deferred the pickup with rate cuts in the US unlikely to boost demand for FY25 earnings, leading to a reduction in the forecasts by -6% and -4% for estimated EPS in FY25/FY26, respectively.
North American operations reported better prices which boosted the 1Q25 results and competition is viewed by the broker as "rational".
Costs were reined in during the 1Q25 which is considered a good balance between earnings and growth.
UBS revises the target price to $57.50 from $60 and remains Buy rated as the medium term story remains intact.
Target price is $57.50 Current Price is $48.37 Difference: $9.13
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.68, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 225.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 277.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.8, implying annual growth of 19.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LIC LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $9.03
Citi rates LIC as Buy (1) -
With Lifestyle Communities having updated the market on July 18, Citi's first take on the FY24 earnings report is in line with guidance, representing a -26% decline year-on-year.
Management remained tight lipped on forward guidance, which was previously withdrawn, the broker highlights.
On a brighter note: the company settled 27 homes from July 1 to August 12, indicating to Citi sales have not stalled.
With concerns over the VCAT decision on Lifestyle Communities' business model, the market remains uncertain over the earnings future, with the broker describing sentiment at "peak fear".
Buy rating unchanged with Citi awaiting the earnings call.
Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $9.03 Difference: $2.67
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.53, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 48.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.5, implying annual growth of -40.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NWL NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $20.70
Citi rates NWL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi upgrades its Netwealth Group target price by 8% to $20.45 and the rating to Neutral due to what the analyst believes is a relatively fully valued stock.
The broker expects consensus earnings to be revised down on the back of guidance for lower margins and higher costs, but does retain a very upbeat view on the strong pipeline.
Market share is forecast to increase and a 20% compound average growth rate in EPS is forecast for the next three years.
FY25 net inflows are forecast to rise 17% and the Xeppo purchase assists with 3%-5% revenue growth increases for FY25/FY26, respectively.
In spite of guided higher costs, Citi still envisage margins to increase by 100 basis point to around 49.9% in FY25.
Target price is $20.45 Current Price is $20.70 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.07, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.0. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 24.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NWL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Netwealth Group's FY24 result missed expectations, primarily on the back of lower revenue. Management had flagged revenue margins would be lower, but the -1.6bp year on year decline was larger than the consensus estimate of -1bp reduction, Macquarie notes.
Pipeline commentary remains encouraging, the broker suggests, however this was largely factored into expectations given recent share-price performance and the elevated multiple.
Macquarie believes Netwealth can hold its elevated multiple for the upcoming quarterlies with upside risk to net flow expectations. It remains to be seen if the current level of flows can be sustained beyond FY25, but the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.
Target rises to $21.00 from $16.75.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $20.70 Difference: $0.3
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.07, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 44.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.0. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 54.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 24.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NWL as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley notes a small miss versus consensus forecasts for Netwealth Group's FY24 results but a "strong" start to FY25 with $1.2bn in funds under administration (FUA) net inflows in July.
These July inflows are tracking ahead of the FY25 consensus forecast for $12.2bn, highlight the analysts.
No FY25 guidance was provided though management noted the new business pipeline and conversion rates remain "very strong" across all segments.
Overweight rating. Target $24. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $20.70 Difference: $3.3
If NWL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.07, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.10 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.0. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 24.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NWL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett acknowledges the marginally lower than forecast FY24 result for Netwealth Group but the resilience of the net flow into FY25 is viewed as "excellent" by the broker.
Operating cash flow increased 14% and the final dividend rose 8% on the previous year to 14c (fully franked).
Ord Minnett highlights Netwealth Group is expected to generate compound average EPS growth of 20% p.a. over the next three years.
The retracement in the share price post the softer results is viewed a buying opportunity.
The stock is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target price $22.
Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $20.70 Difference: $1.3
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.07, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 33.50 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.0. |
Forecast for FY26:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.50 cents and EPS of 50.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 24.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.27
Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
In an early response to today's FY24 release, Citi analysts comment Orora updated with a "messy" report, but it was overall largely in line.
EBIT actually beat forecasts by some 6%, the analysts acknowledge, but there is some low quality one-off through much lower D&A for Saverglass involved.
Citi suggests the market was fearful of another disappointment. From that perspective, today's market update is seen as a positive.
Neutral. Target $2.30.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.03
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORA as No Rating (-1) -
Orora's FY24 surprised by some 9%, reports Macquarie in an initial assessment of today's market update. Consensus looks to have been beaten by some 11%.
EBIT was equally a 'beat' but the broker highlights the outcome was flattered by lower D&A for Saverglass (EUR$40m vs estimated EUR$49m).
Equally important; management has announced a strategic review is currently underway and the company is currently in discussions to potentially divest the OPS business.
The broker notes outlook comments are consistent with low expectations for the 1H25 before a recovery into the 2H.
Macquarie is now on research restriction.
Current Price is $2.27. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Overweight (1) -
Pointing to inherent valuation upside, in Morgan Stanley's opinion, management at Orora has received and rejected a takeover proposal via a scheme of arrangement from private equity company, Lone Star Fund XII Acquisitions.
The analysts anticipate ongoing interest from other parties in the business, which may prompt an internal strategic review from management to potentially unlock value.
Overweight. Target $2.70. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.43
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -
Citi interprets the Region Group FY24 results as "relatively resilient".
A pickup in operating margins is in train with lower finance costs expected for FY25. The broker notes property expense growth (5.9%) has continued to exceed revenue growth (3.9%) over the same period, but a recovery is forecast for the current fiscal year.
Region Group divested lower yielding assets for investment into Cooleman Court at a higher initial yield, capex into better yielding assets. and a $68.8m debt repayment.
The broker adjusts EPS forecasts by -2.1% and -1.2% for FY25/FY26, respectively. Buy rating and $2.60 target price retained.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.34
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RGN as Outperform (1) -
Region Group's funds from operations came in marginally below guidance. Maiden FY25 FFO guidance is -5-6% below Macquarie, reflecting higher property expenses, lost income from asset repositioning projects and interest expenses.
FY25 guidance implies FFO growth of 1% which is materially below the group's longer term indicative growth range of 3-4%. Macquarie now forecasts a three-year FFO growth rate of 2.4% (prior: 4.9%). Despite the change, this remains well ahead of rent-collecting peers at 1.5%.
Positively, Region Group has opportunities to drive earnings upside and value creation in the longer-term, the broker notes. Outperform retained, target falls to $2.38 from $2.42.
Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.12
If RGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RGN as Overweight (1) -
Region Group's FY24 funds from operations (FFO) of 15.4cpu was just short of management's guidance and Morgan Stanley's forecast for 15.6cpu.
FY25 guidance for FFO of 15.5cpu missed the consensus estimate of 16cpu due to the "short-term impact from centre repositioning activities" and higher corporate costs - neither of which the broker had forecast.
The analysts also suggest sales growth momentum looks weak.
Overweight. Target $2.50. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.24
If RGN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.60 cents and EPS of 16.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.66
Macquarie rates SEK as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Seek's FY24 earnings were down -14% year on year and -4% below consensus and the bottom end of guidance. FY25 profit guidance is -28% below consensus due to the cycle, Macquarie notes.
All of this is largely attributed to a more negative outlook for job ads than originally anticipated.
With further softening in labour markets expected, the broker thinks a mid teens decline in job ads is a more sensible outcome as it would take the group back towards a 'mid cycle' number of listings.
Importantly, Macquarie's analysis suggests job ad growth follows rate changes with a 12-month lag. Factoring in a cycle recovery in FY26, the broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral on an unchanged $23 target.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.66 Difference: $2.34
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.94, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 38.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 61.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.5, implying annual growth of 19.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -
Seek's FY24 earnings (EBITDA) missed the consensus forecast by -5%, notes Morgan Stanley, while management now expects FY25 revenue, earnings and profit will fall short of consensus estimates by -6%, -13%, and -20%.
While volumes were weaker-than-expected by the analysts, yields were stronger. The A&NZ region's yield rise of 13% was insufficient to offset decline in volumes, yet is still a positive outcome, according to Morgan Stanley.
The broker now prefers Seek over REA Group ((REA)) as once the job advertisement cycle turns, probably when interest rates are cut, high operating leverage will work in Seek's favour.
Overweight retained. Target $31. Industry View: Attractive.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $20.66 Difference: $10.34
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.94, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 79.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 93.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.5, implying annual growth of 19.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -
Higher depreciation/amortisation charges offset "solid" 2H24 revenues with some volume pressures for Seek. UBS highlights this as the culprit for lower than forecast EBITDA and net profit.
The analyst points to the FY25 outlook for A&NZ volumes as the key unknown, as management's "low teen" guidance has come up short of expectations.
UBS forecasts volume declines of -6% to -8% and believes the weakness is cyclical and not structural. Pricing power appears to be stable with a constant market listing share relative to LinkedIn over the last three years.
EPS forecasts are revised by -22.6% and -19.4% for FY25/FY26, respectively.
The target price is revised -6% to $25.40 with the Buy rating unchanged. The broker confirms the potential for a robust re-rating of the stock when the cycle turns.
Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $20.66 Difference: $4.74
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.94, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1. |
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.5, implying annual growth of 19.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TPW TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED
Furniture & Renovation
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $11.71
Bell Potter rates TPW as Hold (3) -
Temple & Webster's FY24 EBITDA margin of 2.6% was towards the top end of management's 1-3% guidance range, while recurring earnings of $13m was a sizable beat against forecasts by both Bell Potter and consensus.
The broker highlights further market share gains in the overall furniture and homewares category due to marketing investment in both brand and performance. Early FY25 trading was also considered strong and the cash position is healthy at $116m.
Hold. The broker's price target is increased to $12.20 from $11.40 driven by near-term earnings upgrades and time creep.
Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $11.71 Difference: $0.49
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.76, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 191.9. |
Forecast for FY26:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 147.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 77.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TPW as Outperform (1) -
Temple & Webster posted a strong FY24 result, Macquarie notes, featuring significant market-share gains. Sales have grown 26% in
in FY25 to date, in line with FY24 sales. Active customers are up 31% to an all-time high.
The broker forecasts revenue growth of 26% in FY25, in line with current trading, and expects ongoing market share gains, record active customers and increased repeat customers to drive sales growth.
Internal AI solutions are supporting improved conversion rates, increasing over 10%. AI is now handling some 40% of all
customer interactions, Macquarie notes. Fixed costs reduced as a proportion of sales by -70bps to 11.3% in FY24.
Target rises to $12.90 from $12.30, Outperform retained.
Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $11.71 Difference: $1.19
If TPW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.76, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 191.9. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 147.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 77.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -
Temple & Webster's FY24 earnings (EBITDA) beat the consensus forecast by 24%. Morgan Stanley highlights margins were at the upper end of guidance and net cash continues to grow despite the buyback.
The gross margin in FY24 rose by 80bps to 33.4% and cash conversion increased by 120% on the previous corresponding period.
FY25 guidance and long-term targets were reiterated.
Overweight rating. Target $11.50. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.71 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.76, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 191.9. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 147.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 77.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TPW as Neutral (3) -
UBS believes there was nothing in the Temple & Webster FY24 result which accounted for the share price rally, rather investor positioning was "cautious" going into the earnings report.
The broker dissects the solid reported results against those 'believers" in the company's mid to longer-term growth outlook.
Tougher comps are forecast for 2Q25 (40% growth); the analyst questions the durability of the 26% revenue growth.
Increased leverage of marketing and promotions is viewed as possible for maintaining a 1%-3% earnings before interest and tax margin.
EPS forecasts are lifted by 21.6% and 2.9% for FY25/FY26, respectively.
Neutral and a $11.20 target price. UBS highlights a lot is priced into the shares. The broker wants increased certainty around mid-20% "sustainable" revenue growth.
Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $11.71 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.76, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 191.9. |
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 147.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 77.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | $3.37 | Ord Minnett | 3.60 | 4.70 | -23.40% |
BPT | Beach Energy | $1.30 | Morgan Stanley | 1.18 | 1.45 | -18.62% |
CAR | CAR Group | $35.76 | Morgan Stanley | 42.00 | 40.00 | 5.00% |
CGF | Challenger | $7.27 | Citi | 8.30 | 6.95 | 19.42% |
Macquarie | 7.00 | 7.30 | -4.11% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 7.20 | 7.40 | -2.70% | |||
UBS | 8.30 | 8.00 | 3.75% | |||
CSL | CSL | $301.87 | Citi | 345.00 | 335.00 | 2.99% |
Ord Minnett | 319.00 | 317.30 | 0.54% | |||
EVN | Evolution Mining | $4.06 | Macquarie | 3.81 | 4.30 | -11.40% |
JHX | James Hardie Industries | $48.79 | Citi | 50.90 | 51.10 | -0.39% |
Macquarie | 64.00 | 66.60 | -3.90% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 59.00 | 58.00 | 1.72% | |||
Ord Minnett | 53.00 | 55.00 | -3.64% | |||
UBS | 57.50 | 60.00 | -4.17% | |||
NWL | Netwealth Group | $20.56 | Citi | 20.45 | 18.90 | 8.20% |
Macquarie | 21.00 | 16.75 | 25.37% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 24.00 | 21.25 | 12.94% | |||
ORA | Orora | $2.41 | Macquarie | N/A | 2.45 | -100.00% |
RGN | Region Group | $2.22 | Macquarie | 2.38 | 2.42 | -1.65% |
SEK | Seek | $20.40 | UBS | 25.40 | 27.10 | -6.27% |
TPW | Temple & Webster | $12.09 | Bell Potter | 12.20 | 11.40 | 7.02% |
Macquarie | 12.90 | 12.30 | 4.88% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 11.50 | 12.25 | -6.12% | |||
UBS | 11.20 | 10.30 | 8.74% |
Summaries
AGL | AGL Energy | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.81 |
AOV | Amotiv | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $10.17 |
ASK | Abacus Storage King | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.25 |
Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $1.25 | ||
AVL | Australian Vanadium | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.02 |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.31 |
BPT | Beach Energy | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.27 |
BWP | BWP Trust | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $3.53 |
CAR | CAR Group | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $35.20 |
CBA | CommBank | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $132.52 |
Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $132.52 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $132.52 | ||
CGF | Challenger | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.33 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.33 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.33 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.33 | ||
CNI | Centuria Capital | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.55 |
CPU | Computershare | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $26.94 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $26.94 | ||
CSL | CSL | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $294.78 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $294.78 | ||
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $294.78 | ||
DRO | DroneShield | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $1.15 |
DXI | Dexus Industria REIT | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.89 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.81 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.81 | ||
JHX | James Hardie Industries | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $48.37 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $48.37 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $48.37 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $48.37 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $48.37 | ||
LIC | Lifestyle Communities | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $9.03 |
NWL | Netwealth Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $20.70 |
Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $20.70 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $20.70 | ||
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $20.70 | ||
ORA | Orora | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.27 |
No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.27 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.27 | ||
RGN | Region Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.26 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.26 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.26 | ||
SEK | Seek | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $20.66 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $20.66 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $20.66 | ||
TPW | Temple & Webster | Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $11.71 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.71 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.71 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $11.71 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 30 |
2. Accumulate | 2 |
3. Hold | 11 |
5. Sell | 5 |
Wednesday 14 August 2024
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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