Australian Broker Call
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August 09, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 12:38 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| ABC - | ADELAIDE BRIGHTON | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| ECX - | ECLIPX GROUP | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank |
| EVN - | EVOLUTION MINING | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
| IGO - | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| SDA - | SPEEDCAST INTERN | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| TAH - | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| TCL - | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
ABC ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $6.88
Ord Minnett rates ABC as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
Pre the release of Adelaide Brighton's half year results on August 22, Ord Minnett downgrades to Lighten from Hold and raises the target price to $6.00 from $5.70.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of 13.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $21.17
Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -
At first glance, it appears the FY18 result was ok, but guidance for FY19 seems to be below where market consensus had positioned itself. Macquarie analysts point out the outlook looks tougher than the past, while management highlighted the potential for share buybacks.
All in all, Macquarie thinks AGL is facing a "flat" outlook not just for the year ahead, but possibly for 3-5 years and the prospect for strong dividends and scope for a resumption of share buyback is insufficient to get the analysts excited. Neutral. Target $22.50.
Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $21.17 Difference: $1.33
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.92, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 151.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.0, implying annual growth of 90.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 161.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.0, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
Neutral/High Risk rating retained with Citi analysts commenting so far AMP is proving "reasonably resilient" to the impact from the Royal Commission. There has been, among other threats, no mass exodus from its wealth management division.
Irrespective, risks remain high for fines, the new CEO re-basing financials, more re-pricing of products, plus who knows what industry changes lie afoot? Minimal changes have been made to estimates. Target price retained at $3.50.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.01
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AMP as Outperform (1) -
AMP's result was in line with the broker and in the middle of the recently updated guidance range. Wealth management numbers were in line while bank earnings solidly beat, the broker notes, offset by weakness in NZ and AMP Capital.
The company managed to reduce costs by -10% in the first half but does not see a repeat in the second. The broker notes the stock is not trading on fundamentals but rather on RC fallout. How bad will fund outflows prove to be and what new regulations may impact?
A current -40% PE discount to market, compared with an historical -8%, keeps the broker on Outperform. Target falls to $4.30 from $4.50.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.81
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
First half results were within guidance. Macquarie believes the underlying result was aided by lower costs which allowed AMP to meet consensus expectations. Australian wealth management produced cash outflows of $673m in what the broker notes is generally the strongest quarter of the year.
While there appears to be value in the stock at current levels, Macquarie believes a further re-basing is likely. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $4.00 from $3.90.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.51
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -
First half results suggest to Morgan Stanley the business is far from broken and deep value remains. The broker believes the franchise and earnings resilience are underappreciated and the market fears of a mass exodus of planners and billions of dollars in outflows are failing to materialise.
Although client redemptions have settled in the aftermath of the Royal Commission, the broker suspects outflows are likely to feature in the second half as well. Morgan Stanley was also disappointed with the life business, with higher incidences of claims and lapses. Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $4.25 from $4.30. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.76
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -
AMP delivered a pre-guided first half result that included some strong cost control, which was unexpected by Ord Minnett, which helped off-set greater revenue margin compression than expected in the Australian wealth management arm.
The major positive for the broker was that net flows only showed marginal deterioration into FY18, suggesting only modest reputational damage from the RC.
At the current share price the broker believes many of the remaining risks are factored in and maintains the Accumulate rating and $3.90 target.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.41
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -
Business momentum has slowed at a faster rate than UBS anticipated. The result was pre-released and the broker notes the report was about incremental detail. UBS found no significant positive data points.
The broker suspects weak flows, net margin pressure in wealth management and adviser attrition all point to earnings pressure in the second half and beyond. Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.15 from $3.30.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $75.19
Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -
Sell rating retained with price target unchanged at $72. That opening sentence dates from late June, but it again applies post the release of what Citi analysts believe was an FY18 performance not as bad as feared by market participants.
They note revenue headwinds have become evident and are likely to stick around in FY19. Underlying cost growth is expected to remain elevated. Return on Equity is expected to further fade towards peers.
Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $75.19 Difference: minus $3.19 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $73.94, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 433.00 cents and EPS of 548.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 548.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 432.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 434.00 cents and EPS of 533.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.3, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
The good news, the broker notes, is CBA reported a solid outcome on net interest margin and the increased dividend allayed fears of a re-basing. Absolute share price downside risk has thus been removed.
The bad news is CBA's attempts to address culture and governance issues will likely put the bank at a disadvantage to peers, and attempts to return to system loan growth will mean greater margin declines than peers. The broker thus retains Neutral, while lifting its target to $75.00 from $72.50 to reflect reduced risk.
Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $75.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $73.94, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 431.00 cents and EPS of 550.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 548.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 432.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 433.00 cents and EPS of 578.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.3, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CBA as Hold (3) -
FY18 results underwhelmed Deutsche Bank. Even after adjusting for the AUSTRAC and one-off regulatory provisions, net profit was below forecasts. The CET1 ratio of 10.1% was broadly in line with expectations.
The broker acknowledges, while the result appears soft, the recent share price underperformance may have been signalling a worse outcome was anticipated. Hold rating and $76 target maintained.
Target price is $76.00 Current Price is $75.19 Difference: $0.81
If CBA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $73.94, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 548.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 432.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.3, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie notes the bank has taken the opportunity to strengthen its balance sheet and boost provisions, and this should provide longer-term benefits. The broker believes CBA has scope to reduce expenses and maintain underlying earnings growth over the medium term.
However, given the overweight position in retail banking, the near-term revenue trends are expected to remain weak. Neutral rating maintained. Target is $76.50.
Target price is $76.50 Current Price is $75.19 Difference: $1.31
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $73.94, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 434.60 cents and EPS of 551.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 548.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 432.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 444.20 cents and EPS of 563.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.3, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley expects weaker revenue growth and this the reinvestment burden will weigh on expectations for the bank in FY19. At the same time, the broker suspects the proposed demerger of CFS Group may lead to a review of dividend policy.
Second half margins were better than forecast, supported by deposit costs tailwinds and institutional bank de-leveraging. However, this does not increase the broker's confidence in the outlook. Underweight. Price target is $64. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $75.19 Difference: minus $11.19 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $73.94, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 431.00 cents and EPS of 536.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 548.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 432.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 431.00 cents and EPS of 526.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.3, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CBA as Add (1) -
FY18 net profit was lower than forecasts. The miss to expectations was largely the result of one-off expenses and discontinued operations. Morgans maintains a positive view on the major banks because the dividend yields are robust and cost reductions will soon become a key theme for the sector.
The broker reduces cash EPS forecasts for FY19 and FY20 by -1.7% and -0.9% respectively. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $78 from $79.
Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $75.19 Difference: $2.81
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $73.94, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 433.00 cents and EPS of 585.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 548.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 432.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 459.00 cents and EPS of 611.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.3, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -
Full year results were slightly below Ord Minnett forecasts, while the dividend was 1c higher than expected. The broker notes the bank managed to hold the decline in net interest margin to just 2 basis points half-on-half and cost controls were reasonable once regulatory headwinds are excluded.
Nevertheless, Ord Minnett forecasts the bank's ROE premium versus its major bank peers to keep falling and sees potential for a dividend cut post its business divestments.
Hold rating retained and target raised to $78.00 from $76.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $75.19 Difference: $2.81
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $73.94, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 434.00 cents and EPS of 551.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 548.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 432.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 581.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.3, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
FY18 results were broadly in line with expectations. UBS notes revenue weakness was the main feature, while net profit was boosted by another period of very low impairment charges. The broker was most concerned about the second half, in that revenue was weak across the board.
The broker believes Australian consumers and business are being more cautious in a low-income growth environment, exacerbated by the Royal Commission. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $72 from $74.
Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $75.19 Difference: minus $3.19 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $73.94, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 515.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 548.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 432.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 501.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.3, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $200.72
Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -
In a preview of CSL's results, due on August 15, the broker notes the profit result was confirmed at the mid-May update and expects the focus to be on the performance of key therapies, ?Idelvion, Haegarda, Albumin and Hizentra as a guide to FY19 sales growth.
Ord Minnett expects management to once again guide conservatively, which is likely to see a net profit range below the broker's forecast and consensus opinion.
Hold rating and $195.00 target retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $195.00 Current Price is $200.72 Difference: minus $5.72 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $192.38, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 220.58 cents and EPS of 496.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 513.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 250.42 cents and EPS of 573.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 581.6, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 257.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.81
Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -
On initial assessment, Macquarie believes strong VIP volumes and commission adjustments have offset what is essentially a "soft" domestic result. A new $400m on market share buyback should support the share price, say the analysts. Neutral. Target $13.55.
Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $13.81 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.26, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 52.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of -78.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 61.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ECX ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $1.88
Deutsche Bank rates ECX as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Deutsche Bank observes the company's business has been increasing in complexity for some time, supported by significant investment in acquisitions, working capital and capitalised expenditure. This increases the risks in an already leveraged operating model.
Deutsche Bank was willing, previously, to accept these higher risks, given the market opportunity, however the downgrade to profit expectations raises questions about execution and visibility over parts of the business. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is reduced to $2.10 from $4.50.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.22
If ECX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting upside of 46.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley reviews its assumptions, the business model and sustainability of earnings and concludes that the enduring core business is now trading at a steep discount. The broker's base case no longer relies on valuations for Grays and Right2Drive, despite both being profitable businesses.
The broker expects $66m in net profit in FY19 from the core leasing business. Morgan Stanley reduces estimates for EPS in FY18 by -14% and for FY19 by -19%. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $4.40. Overweight rating. Sector view is In-Line.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.62
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting upside of 46.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.95
Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -
Evolution Mining has corrected significantly from its peak and now shows modest downside to Morgan Stanley's target, revised to $2.60 from $2.70. This has prompted the broker to upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight, largely driven by better multiples on the base case scenario. Industry view is: In-Line.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.36
Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -
Following the updated reserves at Nova Morgan Stanley remodels the asset and expects negative revisions to consensus estimates for FY19 and FY20. The valuation for Nova has decreased -12% despite accounting for an expanded throughput rate from the second half of FY20.
The broker downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight and lowers the target to $3.85 from $4.45. Industry view is: In-Line.
Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of 145.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 276.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.29
Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley continues to forecasts a tight market for zircon which could lead to another jump in its reference price. The broker expects 2019/20 production costs to come in below market expectations because of an expanded Ambrosia project.
Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating for Iluka. Industry view is In-Line. Target is raised to $13.55 from $12.60, driven by the latest rutile price.
Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $11.29 Difference: $2.26
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.84, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.40 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.40 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.12
Macquarie rates IOF as No Rating (-1) -
FY18 results were in line with expectations as is the FY19 outlook. The company provided FFO guidance of 29.2c per security, down 4.6% versus FY18. Given the relatively low level of gearing in the trust, distributions are expected to remain flat.
Macquarie is on research restrictions and cannot advise on a rating or target at present.
Current Price is $5.12. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -68.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.70 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of -6.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IOF as Underweight (5) -
FY18 results were in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley notes comparable net operating income growth was weak, at just 2.1%. This was affected by incentive amortisation at several assets.
Comparable FY19 guidance is for a -1.8% fall and this could cause investors to question what is left in the office versus retail trade, Morgan Stanley suggests.
Underweight. Target is $4.95. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If IOF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -68.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of -6.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates IOF as No Rating (-1) -
Full year results were slightly ahead of expectations. Guidance for FY19 of 29.2c per security is down -2% on FY18 but in line with Ord Minnett's estimate.
In the long-term, Ord Minnett expects EPS growth to lift when earnings stabalise in FY21. For FY20 to FY24 the broker forecasts earnings growth to be sector leading at 5.4% CAGR.
The broker is currently on research restriction and cannot provide a recommendation or target price.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Current Price is $5.12. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -68.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of -6.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $23.33
Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -
James Hardie is scheduled to report Q1 FY19 results and Citi analysts are anticipating a strong performance, with potential for an upside surprise in terms of guidance for FY19.
Investor attention will also be drawn to how the integration of newly acquired Fermacell is progressing, say the analysts. Buy rating with $27 price target retained.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.33 Difference: $3.67
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.08, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.90 cents and EPS of 102.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 70.92 cents and EPS of 116.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.8, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.50
Macquarie rates LEP as Neutral (3) -
FY18 profit was in line with expectations. Macquarie believes the stock is a defensive proposition and has improved growth prospects beyond FY19.
Earnings will be impacted by the rent review process during 2018. The company has reiterated its intention to review distributions and capital management policies after the rent review.
Neutral. Target is reduced to $5.02 from $5.04.
Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If LEP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.30 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.60 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates LEP as Lighten (4) -
FY18 earnings were slightly below expectations due to higher corporate costs attributed to FY19 rent review preparations. The majority of the group's properties have a 10% cap or collared rent review in November 2018.
Management expects a positive outcome from the review but reiterates it does not expect all properties to achieve the full 10% uplift. Ord Minnett expects expenses are likely to remain elevated following an increase in the Queensland land tax rate to 2.5%, resulting in a $700,000 drag on earnings.
Ord Minnett retains the Lighten rating and raised the target to $4.20 from $3.80.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If LEP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates LVT as Buy (1) -
Post capital raising of $20m, Citi analysts reiterate their Buy recommendation. They believe the company is now well-funded for the next 12-15 months. Citi believes the fresh capital effectively hands management a mandate to accelerate growth.
Target price jumps by 30% to $1.14. Citi analysts do acknowledge the low base on which this company is growing, reflecting its corporate infancy, but they nevertheless think the small premium vis-a-vis peers can be justified, because of much faster growth.
Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.45
If LVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $27.49
Macquarie rates MFG as Outperform (1) -
In initial response, Macquarie analysts find Magellan Financial delivered a "strong" FY18 performance, leaving it hard to find any faults. Not only did the financial performance beat expectations, but cost guidance will push up forecasts for FY19, suggest the analysts.
As dividend policy has been changed, a significant "beat" on this front has materialised too, they add. Outperform. Target $28.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $27.49 Difference: $0.51
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.80, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 98.20 cents and EPS of 133.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.0, implying annual growth of 19.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 106.90 cents and EPS of 146.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.33
Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -
On initial assessment, Macquarie finds Mirvac's FY18 report came out near the top end of management's guidance, with residential softer than expected but interest costs were equally below expectations.
There remains, however, an attractive valuation, in the broker's opinion. Outperform. Target $2.47.
Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.14
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -44.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.78
Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley reduces the price target to $20.60 from $21.50 to reflect higher capital expenditure estimates. The broker still considers the stock good value and maintains an Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $15.78 Difference: $4.82
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.53, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.40 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.1, implying annual growth of 13.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.40 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.1, implying annual growth of 11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.42
Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie's initial assessment is that Orora's FY18 report proved a minor beat of its own and of market consensus. Overall, however, the beats on several metrics are so small that the analysts label the result as "in-line".
All in all, a solid result, with ongoing growth anticipated for FY19, but acquisitions remain key and Macquarie expects Orora to remain disciplined. No changes to Outperform rating and $3.59 price target.
Target price is $3.59 Current Price is $3.42 Difference: $0.17
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.55, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 6.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
OTW OVER THE WIRE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Cloud services
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Overnight Price: $3.43
Morgans rates OTW as Add (1) -
Morgans envisages upside risk to the earnings trajectory through organic growth, integration and further value-enhancing acquisitions. The company will report its results on August 22. The broker rolls forward valuation and increases the price target to $4.03 from $3.33. Add rating maintained.
Target price is $4.03 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.6
If OTW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $5.95
Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -
The company has indicated a minimum ongoing impact from tariffs and reiterated FY18 guidance. Reliance Worldwide notes the impact on operating earnings is likely to be around US$1.5m or 0.6% of EBITDA before mitigation.
This is on the basis of the current tariff regime between the US and China. Outperform rating and $6.20 target are maintained.
Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.25
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 56.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RWC as Add (1) -
Morgans expects FY18 EBITDA to rise by 25%, driven by continued penetration of SharkBite PTC fittings in the US and completion of the roll out to Lowe's stores.
While John Guest will only make a minor contribution to FY18, earnings from FY19 on are expected to be substantially boosted by the acquisition. Morgans maintains an Add rating and raises the target to $6.40 from $5.46. The company will report its FY18 results on August 27.
Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.45
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 56.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RWC as Accumulate (2) -
Incorporating the company's update on US import duties, Ord Minnett analysts have updated their modeling. Accumulate rating and $6.40 price target remain in place.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.45
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 56.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SCP SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP
REITs
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Overnight Price: $2.46
Credit Suisse rates SCP as Neutral (3) -
Shopping Centres' result was in line with the broker. Operational metrics continue to slow, the broker notes, reflecting competition among supermarkets. The broker sees further slowing ahead as anchor tenant leases come up for renewal.
Further acquisitions are nonetheless anticipated. Neutral and $2.25 target retained.
Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -33.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SDA SPEEDCAST INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment
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Overnight Price: $6.41
Morgans rates SDA as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Morgans observes the company is cutting costs to gain growth and expects the first half will be negatively affected by higher costs. Cycling six months of UltiSat is expected to produce an incremental US$30m in revenue. Offsetting this will be integration costs to realise UltiSat and Harris CapRock synergies.
The company will report its results in August 28. Morgans upgrades its rating to Add from Hold and raises the target to $7.21 from $5.57.
Target price is $7.21 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.8
If SDA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.16 cents and EPS of 33.09 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.27 cents and EPS of 38.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 16.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.30
Morgans rates SLC as Add (1) -
Morgans expects Super will deliver an in-line result with an improvement in the rate of sales in Singapore and Hong Kong. The company will report its results on August 20. The broker believes the stock remains an asset play.
Add rating is maintained and the target raised to $2.86 from $2.81.
Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.56
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.60 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.70 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.70
Macquarie rates SUN as Underperform (5) -
On initial impressions, Macquarie analysts find the FY18 performance "very strong", also assisted by good weather in Australia. Cash earnings beat market consensus by some 11%, point out the analysts.
The payout of 40c in dividends plus 8c as a special, coupled with the sale of the Life insurance operations instills confidence in the outlook, suggests Macquarie. Underperform. Target $13.65.
Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $15.70 Difference: minus $2.35 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.61, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 96.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of 19.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 99.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.4, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.81
Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -
Tabcorp actually posted a "light miss", as the broker puts it. The reason the share price shot up is the market was fearing a "bad miss". The miss was due to a poor result from Gaming Services, reflecting lost machine contracts.
The broker continues to expect earnings growth improvement to FY20 as merger synergies accrue, the dilution from merger scrip recedes, and new wagering regulation impedes competition. Outperform retained, target falls to $5.15 from $5.20.
Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.34
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 21.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 984.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TAH as Buy (1) -
FY18 results were slightly below expectations. Deutsche Bank suggests Tabcorp is well-positioned to benefit from the integration of Tatts and an improving regulatory environment.
The company has exited loss-making businesses and the balance sheet is observed to have some flexibility. Buy rating and $5.50 target retained.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.69
If TAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 984.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TAH as Outperform (1) -
FY18 results were slightly below expectations. Macquarie notes integration synergies have been held at "at least" $130m in EBITDA as of FY21, which may have disappointed some, although the company has not ruled out a future upgrade.
Lotteries and Keno produced stronger-than-expected results, driven by growth in digital and cost controls. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $5.05 target.
Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.24
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 984.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Overweight (1) -
FY18 results were in line with expectations. Lotteries & Keno were the highlight for Morgan Stanley, with pro forma FY18 EBITDA growth of more than 10.5%.
The broker suggests there is potential for small upgrades to FY19 market expectations. Overweight and $5.20 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.39
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 984.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TAH as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
Tabcorp's FY18 results were in line with Ord Minnett forecasts. EBIT was below estimates due to declines in gaming, lotteries and Keno, plus wagering margins. Synergy guidance of $130m per annum by FY21 was reiterated with significant upside risk.
Ord Minnett has increased its normalised earnings forecasts by 7.5% for FY19 and 9.6% for FY20. Target is lifted to $4.50 from $4.20 and rating upgraded to Hold from Lighten in line with the increased valuation.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 984.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -
FY18 results beat UBS estimates in both the wagering and lottery divisions. Synergy targets of $50m was slightly below the broker's forecasts and solid cost management was noted. No trading update was provided, as expected.
Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.30 from $5.40.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.49
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 984.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.01
Credit Suisse rates TCL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
The main takeaway from Transurban's result for Credit Suisse was guidance to 5.5-7.5% compound growth in free cash flow over three years, down from an average midpoint of 11% for the past five. Dividend guidance also fell short of the broker.
The company appears to be entering a more intensive investment phase, Credit Suisse notes, while asset prices remain elevated, and more exposed to delivery challenges for its star NorthConnex project than the broker had expected. NorthConnex is likely to be delayed.
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $12.30 from $12.80.
Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $12.01 Difference: $0.29
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 28.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 61.50 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of 17.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $2.82
Morgans rates TLS as Add (1) -
Given the recent affirmation of guidance Morgans does not expect any surprises when Telstra reports results on August 16. The broker has already reduced FY19 dividend expectations to $0.17 per share.
Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.47 from $3.42.
Target price is $3.47 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.65
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of -16.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.65
Morgans rates TPM as Hold (3) -
Morgans expects TPG Telecom will report an in-line result. The broker believes there is upside risk to the outlook but awaits the AGM in November. The company will report its results on September 18. Hold rating is maintained. Target is $5.41.
Target price is $5.41 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of -9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of -30.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.33
Morgans rates VOC as Hold (3) -
Morgans expects the company's results on August 22 will be about re-setting investor expectations for the business. The broker will focus on the implications for the balance sheet and free cash flow in FY19.
Morgans considers the stock a true turnaround story and envisages risks of further large write-downs and lower-than-expected FY19 guidance. Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.44 from $2.39.
Target price is $2.44 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.11
If VOC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.32
Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley reduces the price target to $6.25 from $6.50 to reflect higher operating cost estimates. The broker still considers the stock good value. Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.93
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.4, implying annual growth of 29.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.2, implying annual growth of 7.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| ABC | ADELAIDE BRIGHTON | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.88 |
| AGL | AGL ENERGY | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $21.17 |
| AMP | AMP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.49 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.49 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.49 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.49 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.49 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.49 | ||
| CBA | COMMBANK | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $75.19 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $75.19 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $75.19 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $75.19 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $75.19 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $75.19 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $75.19 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $75.19 | ||
| CSL | CSL | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $200.72 |
| CWN | CROWN RESORTS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $13.81 |
| ECX | ECLIPX GROUP | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $1.88 |
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.88 | ||
| EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.95 |
| IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.36 |
| ILU | ILUKA RESOURCES | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.29 |
| IOF | INVESTA OFFICE | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.12 |
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.12 | ||
| No Rating - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.12 | ||
| JHX | JAMES HARDIE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $23.33 |
| LEP | ALE PROPERTY GROUP | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.50 |
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.50 | ||
| LVT | LIVETILES | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.69 |
| MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $27.49 |
| MGR | MIRVAC | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.33 |
| MIN | MINERAL RESOURCES | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $15.78 |
| ORA | ORORA | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.42 |
| OTW | OVER THE WIRE HOLDINGS Ltd | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.43 |
| RWC | RELIANCE WORLDWIDE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.95 |
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.95 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.95 | ||
| SCP | SHOPPING CENTRES AUS | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.46 |
| SDA | SPEEDCAST INTERN | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.41 |
| SLC | SUPERLOOP | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.30 |
| SUN | SUNCORP | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $15.70 |
| TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.81 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.81 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.81 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.81 | ||
| Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.81 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.81 | ||
| TCL | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.01 |
| TLS | TELSTRA CORP | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.82 |
| TPM | TPG TELECOM | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.65 |
| VOC | VOCUS GROUP | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.33 |
| WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.32 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 23 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 18 |
| 4. Reduce | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 6 |
Thursday 09 August 2018
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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