Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A2M as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie explains there has been notable share price volatility for a2 Milk Co since the 1H25 earnings report, with market uncertainty around competition and market share.

Consensus growth forecasts for the top line stand at 12.6%, and earnings (EBITDA) are expected to rise 16% on a year earlier, with a margin of 14.4%, which infers accelerated growth over 2H25.

The share market is seen flagging revenue to come in over $2bn in FY26.

No change in Outperform rating. Macquarie lifts the target price to $8.30 from $7.85 and anticipates the market will focus on the extent of English label channel growth, new product development, the extent of sales growth, and the possibility of capital returns.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $0.38
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.47, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Ampol's June quarter report met expectations as stronger margins offset weaker fuel volumes, helping to grow the convenience retail EBIT. 

The broker expects convenience retail EBIT to grow at a 6% compounded annual rate over the next three years. View on F&I Australia is cautious because of doubts over its ability to generate EBITDA above the breakeven level in the current market environment.

FY25 EPS forecast lifted on higher refining margins over 1H25 and lower net interest expenses, and on optimism that EPS growth will be supported by stronger EBITDA from U-Go site conversions.

Buy. Target unchanged at $31.50.

This report was published last Friday.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $27.52 Difference: $3.98
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.00, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

UBS holds a constructive view on the upcoming FY25 reporting season for the Australian engineering and construction (E&C) sector, citing resilient earnings growth potential.

The broker forecasts double-digit EPS growth for the sector in FY25 and FY26, outperforming the broader ASX200, which is expected to deliver -2% and 5% respectively.

Earnings growth in the sector is underpinned by favourable long-term drivers, including rising infrastructure investment in Australia. UBS believes this will benefit SGH Ltd and Downer EDI. Growing global energy demand is also expected to support Worley.

For ALS Ltd, UBS expects management will reiterate FY26 guidance at the July 30 AGM and provide an update on geochemistry volumes.

Unchanged Buy rating and $18.50 target.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.07 Difference: $0.43
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.85, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the financial reporting season, Citi notes its top picks among diversified financials are Buy-rated AMP and Challenger ((CGF)). For those with Neutral rating the broker's order of preference is Computershare ((CPU)), Perpetual ((PPT)) and ASX ((ASX)).

In the case of AMP, the broker believes the market should take comfort if margins and dividends are in line with guidance. 

The broker's FY26-27 EPS forecasts are ahead of consensus, reflecting slightly higher divisional earnings.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.31
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes ANZ Bank is not scheduled to provide 3Q25 earnings but the Pillar 3 report is due on August 15.

The broker's forecasts assume a -6.5% decline in 3Q25 profits vs the average of the first two quarters. 

An increase in 90-day arrears and gross impaired assets is expected but the overall credit quality is expected to remain sound.

No change to forecasts.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $26.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $30.22 Difference: minus $3.72 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.67, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the financial reporting season, Citi notes its top picks among diversified financials are Buy-rated AMP ((AMP)) and Challenger ((CGF)). For those with Neutral rating the broker's order of preference is Computershare ((CPU)), Perpetual ((PPT)) and ASX.

The broker expects ASX to post 10% y/y revenue growth in 2H25 on expanding derivative volumes. Listing revenue is expected to be flat but the outlook has improved on signs of a pickup in the IPO market. 

Neutral. Target unchanged at $71.60.

Target price is $71.60 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: $1.21
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.03, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights a weak May and June for Bapcor, with management cutting FY25 guidance and downgrading earnings by -9% to -12%, marking three consecutive fiscal years of earnings declines.

Sales were weaker across all divisions, suggesting negative momentum into FY26. The analyst believes market concerns around the turnaround are warranted and that this could prove to be a multi-year journey for Bapcor.

Morgan Stanley is unable to provide a rating and target at present, as it is acting as a financial advisor to Bain Capital's proposed acquisition of the company. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $3.72. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley will focus on Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's margin trends and commentary at the 2H25 results, and expects them to drive share price. The broker forecast a -2% sequential decline in margin in 2H to 1.86%.

Growth ambitions for mortgage will be another interesting update following a significant slowing since March. Credit quality is expected to remain sound and loan losses lower, providing support to consensus EPS estimates.

Equal-weight. Target price $11. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $12.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.50, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Boss Energy's 4Q25 production was better than expected at 349,188lbs of U3O8, 7% above the analyst's forecast and 4% above consensus.

Sales of 100klbs were notably lower than production and reflected management's strategy to not engage with the market, as the U3O8 price is viewed as "fundamentally" undervalued.

Production guidance for FY26 at 1.6Mlbs was in line with Citi's forecast, but cash cost guidance of $41–$51/lb and all-in-sustaining costs of $64–$70/lb were significantly higher than the broker's forecasts of $34/lb and $48/lb, respectively.

The rise in cash costs resulted from an unexpected decline in average tenor and optimised lixiviant chemistry (lixiviant is injected into the ground to dissolve uranium from the ore body).

Citi believes the market will be disappointed with the result and the potential nameplate capacity changes.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $1.2
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 108.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Neutral (3) -

Boss Energy announced a "disappointing" update on Honeymoon, Macquarie states in a flash update, with IX production for 4Q25 4% better than expected, while drummed U3O8 was -7% below the broker's forecast and -10% lower than the consensus estimate due to a timing issue and June maintenance.

Management's FY26 guidance was below expectations, with production of 1.6Mlb, some -7% below the analyst's and consensus forecasts, based on nine wellfields in operation by June 2026 at Honeymoon and East Kalkaroo.

Guided unit costs of $41–$45/lb at Honeymoon are well above forecast at $35/lb for Macquarie and $37/lb for consensus. Capex is also more than anticipated at $56m–$62m, with additional project and infrastructure costs a surprise to the downside.

East Kalkaroo and long-term capacity are also disappointing. Macquarie highlights Boss has "identified potential challenges that may arise in achieving nameplate capacity," which is "largely due to the potential for less continuity of mineralisation and leachability."

Neutral. Target $4.45.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $1.05
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 108.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Underweight (5) -

Boss Energy announced FY26 guidance of production at 1.6Mlb, which is below Morgan Stanley's estimate by -1.8% and consensus by -6%. Capex is flagged to rise 46.7% to $56–$62/lb, which sits 78.8% above both the broker's and consensus forecasts.

FY26 costs are also guided higher, as are all-in-sustaining costs, against consensus and the analyst's expectations.

The miner's 4Q25 production of 0.34Mlb was better than Morgan Stanley's estimate by 24.1% and above consensus by 3.1%, while costs were lower. Cash in hand at FY25 end of $36.5m was below forecasts by -$18m due to lower sales over the period.

Morgan Stanley is looking at "meaningful" EPS downgrades for the stock.

Underweight rated. Target set at $3.25. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 108.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes CommBank's 2H25 result on August 13 will mark the start of the August reporting season.

The broker is forecasting 1.5% sequential growth in revenue in 2H, implying 1% q/q growth in 4Q. Reported margin is expected at 2.08% in 2H, with underlying margin trend expected to be stable between 4Q and 3Q.

Overall, a good quality result is expected.

Underweight. Target rises to $129 from $128. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $129.00 Current Price is $172.87 Difference: minus $43.87 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $109.42, suggesting downside of -37.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the financial reporting season, Citi notes its top picks among diversified financials are Buy-rated AMP ((AMP)) and Challenger. For those with Neutral rating the broker's order of preference is Computershare ((CPU)), Perpetual ((PPT)) and ASX ((ASX)).

The broker is forecasting $460m FY25 normalised net profit for Challenger, slightly ahead of the mid-point of guidance. For FY25, net profit is forecast at $474m, up 3% vs FY25.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9.20.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $1.28
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.42, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the ongoing acceleration of tobacco sales declines is weighing on supermarket top-line growth. Positively, the impact on the FY26 outlook is expected to be no worse than in FY25, given the segment’s diminishing contribution to total sales.

The broker maintains a preference for consumer staples over discretionary, supported by valuation and a slower-than-expected consumer recovery.

Overweight-rated Woolworths Group and Coles Group remain Morgan Stanley’s preferred names in the sector.

The Coles Group target is unchanged at $21.70. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $21.70 Current Price is $20.22 Difference: $1.48
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.48, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the financial reporting season, Citi notes its top picks among diversified financials are Buy-rated AMP ((AMP)) and Challenger ((CGF)). For those with Neutral rating the broker's order of preference is Computershare, Perpetual ((PPT)) and ASX ((ASX)).

In the case of Computershare, the broker is ahead of consensus on EPS for both FY25 and FY26. Upside risk is from growth in corporate trust volumes from rising debt issuance and a pick in ECM volumes.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $40.90.

Target price is $40.90 Current Price is $40.12 Difference: $0.78
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.60, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Buy (1) -

UBS holds a constructive view on the upcoming FY25 reporting season for the Australian engineering and construction (E&C) sector, citing resilient earnings growth potential.

The broker forecasts double-digit EPS growth for the sector in FY25 and FY26, outperforming the broader ASX200, which is expected to deliver -2% and 5% respectively.

Earnings growth in the sector is underpinned by favourable long-term drivers, including rising infrastructure investment in Australia. UBS believes this will benefit SGH Ltd and Downer EDI. Growing global energy demand is also expected to support Worley.

For Cleanaway Waste Management, the analysts forecast FY25 earnings (EBIT) of $411m, aligning with the midpoint of company guidance ($395–425m) and in line with consensus of $411m.

For FY26, the broker forecasts earnings will rise to $489m, slightly below consensus of $495m, supported by ongoing cost optimisation initiatives and earnings contribution from the Contract Resources acquisition.

Target edges down to $3.20 from $3.25. Buy retained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.32
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

UBS holds a constructive view on the upcoming FY25 reporting season for the Australian engineering and construction (E&C) sector, citing resilient earnings growth potential.

The broker forecasts double-digit EPS growth for the sector in FY25 and FY26, outperforming the broader ASX200, which is expected to deliver -2% and 5% respectively.

Earnings growth in the sector is underpinned by favourable long-term drivers, including rising infrastructure investment in Australia. UBS believes this will benefit SGH Ltd and Downer EDI. Growing global energy demand is also expected to support Worley.

For Downer EDI, management is guiding to FY25 underlying profit (NPATA) of $265-280m. UBS forecasts $274m, a rise of 31% on the prior year. Consensus currently sits at $276m.

Unchanged Neutral rating and $5.80 target.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $6.84 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting downside of -10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Citi has a more optimistic view on EVT Ltd than the company's guidance for modest growth in the entertainment business in 2H25. The broker forecasts 14% growth in 2H25 EBITDA based on its analysis of material improvement in box office data vs 1H.

At the FY25 result on August 25, the broker forecasts net profit of $43.2m vs consensus of $43.7m, and sees upside risk from the entertainment business.

FY25 net profit forecasts lifted by 5%, FY26 by 2% and FY27 cut by -1%. Target rises to $18.15 from $16.12. Buy maintained.

Target price is $18.15 Current Price is $15.95 Difference: $2.2
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.35, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Fortescue Metals delivered a stronger-than-expected June quarter, according to UBS, capping off a record FY25 with 198.4mt in shipments and C1 costs of US$17.99/t, -6% below consensus.

FY26 guidance implies to the broker modest shipment growth (195–205mt), creeping operating costs, and a lift in sustaining and decarbonisation capex to -$3.6-4.3bn, offset partly by a reduced energy capex profile.

Iron Bridge shipments were 30% above consensus in the quarter, highlight the analysts, and the balance sheet remains strong with net debt of US$1.1bn versus consensus of US$1.9bn.

UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral, while raising its price target to $17.40 from $16.20. Recent share price gains and a softer iron ore outlook drive the broker's valuation caution.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $18.35 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.68, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the August reporting season for insurance stocks, Citi highlights its preference for general insurance stocks, with the order of preference being QBE Insurance ((QBE)), Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group ((SUN)).

The broker expects a strong FY25 result for Insurance Australia Group, and sees scope for a beat on consensus forecast for 17.3% insurance margin, with its own forecast being 17.4%. 

The broker estimates double-digit gross written premiums growth in FY26-27 after factoring in recent acquisitions, though one of them still needs to clear ACCC.

Buy. Target unchanged at $10.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.47 Difference: $1.53
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPX as Speculative Buy (1) -

IperionX has completed a $70m equity placement at $5.00, a -2% discount to the five-day volume weighted average price. Bell Potter explains proceeds will fund long-lead items for expansion at its Titanium Manufacturing Campus in Virginia.

Commissioning of the Phase 1 plant is complete, with initial capacity at 125tpa, and customer interest continues from defence, aerospace, and automotive sectors, highlight the analysts.

Pro forma cash at June 30 stands at circa US$100m, up from US$55m, and capacity guidance for both Phase 1 and Phase 2 is expected in the coming weeks. Phase 2 is likely to increase output to around 1,000tpa, notes the broker.

Bell Potter sees near-term demand underpinned by the US$99m Department of Defense contract, with further commercial developments anticipated as production scales.

The broker raises its target price to $7.90 from $6.25 and maintains a Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $1.61
If IPX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley cut Judo Capital's FY25-27 EPS estimate by around 2% to reflected a slightly weaker margin.

The broker expects the bank to reiterate FY26 guidance for 50% profit before tax growth and provide guidance for loans of $14.5-14.8bn and margin of 3.0-3.1%.

For 2H25, the broker forecast a 19bps sequential lift in margin to 3% vs guidance of 2.9-3.0%.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $2.10. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.56
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LAU as Buy (1) -

Lindsay Australia acquired SRT, which is viewed by Ord Minnett as offering increased diversification across the company's customer base and regional exposure, and is a notable complement to other recent investments, the analyst states, in WA, SA, and Vic.

For FY25, the broker forecasts earnings (EBITDA) of $81.3m, which is within management's guidance range, while lowering the expected 2H25 dividend estimate due to management's focus on debt repayment.

Buy. Target slips to $1.08 from $1.09.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.3
If LAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths delivered record NdPr production of 2,080t in the June quarter, ahead of Bell Potter's estimate of 1,544t and consensus of 1,800t.

Management also reported the first separation of DyTb outside China in recent history, while basket pricing of $60/kg exceeded the broker’s estimate and consensus. 

Note: Rare earths like Dy and Tb are typically found in mixed ore forms, and separation is the complex chemical process of isolating individual rare earth elements from these mixes.

Revenue of $170m beat forecasts by Bell Potter and consensus for $152m and $154m, respectively. Cash costs rose to $44/kg total rare earths oxide (TREO)while capital expenditure increased to $88m.

Lynas ended the quarter with $166m in cash, down from $268m.

Management also signed a memorandum of understanding with Korea’s JS Link to develop a 3,000tpa magnet plant in Malaysia.

Bell Potter raises its target price to $7.65 from $6.05 and retains a Sell rating.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $10.73 Difference: minus $3.08 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

UBS believes Lynas Rare Earths is uniquely placed to capitalise from the rising geopolitical support for non-China rare earths supply chain.

In the June quarter NdPr production beat forecasts, realised price was 20% above forecasts despite flat market pricing, and capex was lower than expected.

The broker trimmed FY26 production forecast by -4% to 9,200t NdPr but remained above the consensus of 9,000t. Price forecast was lifted up by 9% and EPS forecast for FY26 increased by 15.6%.

Buy. Target rises to $12.20 from $10.40.

This report was published on Friday.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $10.73 Difference: $1.47
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MND as Neutral (3) -

UBS holds a constructive view on the upcoming FY25 reporting season for the Australian engineering and construction (E&C) sector, citing resilient earnings growth potential.

The broker forecasts double-digit EPS growth for the sector in FY25 and FY26, outperforming the broader ASX200, which is expected to deliver -2% and 5% respectively.

Earnings growth in the sector is underpinned by favourable long-term drivers, including rising infrastructure investment in Australia. UBS believes this will benefit SGH Ltd and Downer EDI. Growing global energy demand is also expected to support Worley.

For Monadelphous Group, UBS forecasts FY25 revenue growth of 9%, consistent with guidance for high-single-digit growth. The broker's estimate is underpinned by 27% growth from Construction supported by strong activity across commodities.

Neutral. Target $16.00.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $19.01 Difference: minus $3.01 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes the ongoing acceleration of tobacco sales declines is weighing on supermarket top-line growth. Positively, the impact on the FY26 outlook is expected to be no worse than in FY25, given the segment’s diminishing contribution to total sales.

The broker maintains a preference for consumer staples over discretionary, supported by valuation and a slower-than-expected consumer recovery.

Overweight-rated Woolworths Group and Coles Group remain Morgan Stanley’s preferred names in the sector.

The Metcash target is $3.75. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Ahead of National Australia Bank's 3Q25 update, Morgan Stanley expects operating highlights to be broadly in line with cautious market expectations.

Margin movement and commentary on business lending competition, deposit pricing and mix shift will be key items to watch. The broker estimates margin to -3bps lower vs 1H25 to 1.70%.

Equal-Weight. Target rises to $35.40 from $35.00. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $37.51 Difference: minus $2.11 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.24, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Newmont Corp announced "robust" 2Q 2025 gold production, which came in above both Macquarie's and consensus expectations by 7% and 6%, respectively.

All-in-sustaining costs were also lower than anticipated, resulting in better-than-forecast earnings and free cash flow.

Net debt of US$737m was considerably below the forecast $1.4bn, while the 2Q dividend of US25c met expectations and is in line with the miner's US$1 per share dividend target.

Management retained 2025 production guidance of 5.6moz, with year-to-date production at 2.8moz, or 50% of guidance.

Macquarie lifts the 2025 EPS estimate by 4%, and the target price increases 3% to $109. No change to the Outperform rating.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $95.38 Difference: $13.62
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $106.40, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Newmont Corp's June quarter result was better than both consensus and Ord Minnett's expectations for production, costs, and operating earnings.

The miner also announced an additional US$3bn share buyback program.

The broker lifts its EPS estimates by 9.4% for 2025, with 2026 down by -0.4%.

Buy. Target unchanged at $115. Ord Minnett believes there is considerable value in Newmont shares, with some assets not operating near full potential.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $95.38 Difference: $19.62
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $106.40, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Newmont Corp had a challenging 4Q2024 with management changes, but the miner has now achieved a second successive strong result for 2Q2025, with management reconfirming 2025 guidance, which appears to be "conservative", the analyst states.

Newmont produced 1.48Moz for 2Q, which was above consensus and guidance by 6%; all-in-sustaining costs were below expectations by -8% due to reduced capex and timing around Cadia/Lihir.

Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) were better than consensus by 15%, and net income was 30% better, resulting in considerably more robust free cash flow at US$1.7bn, compared to the consensus forecast of US$733m.

UBS lifts its EPS estimate by 28% for 2025, while 2026 is unchanged.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $110 from $105.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $95.38 Difference: $14.62
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $106.40, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

After recently lowering Northern Star Resources' forecasts following downgrade in FY26 guidance, UBS trimmed forecast for Yandal production and lifted cost forecasts following the release of June quarterly.

The broker also moderated forecasts for underground ramp up at KCGM mines, resulting in a -8% downgrade to FY26 EPS forecast and a -10% cut to FY27.

The broker now forecasts 856koz at a cost of $2,250/oz in FY29 for KCGM vs guidance at the time of final investment decision of 900koz at $1,425.

Neutral. Target trimmed to $16.65 from $17.60.

This report was published last Friday.

Target price is $16.65 Current Price is $15.81 Difference: $0.84
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target for Netwealth Group to $41.50 from $29.75 (well ahead of other brokers in the FNArena database) and reaffirms an Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line. 

The broker cites strong structural tailwinds, market share expansion potential, and a highly aligned founder-led management team. 

Despite high forward multiples, the analysts see durable revenue growth, margin upside, and improving adviser traction as supporting a long-term growth thesis.

The recent 4Q25 update showed funds under administration (FUA) in line with the broker's forecast, with market movements offsetting softer inflows. Management reiterated its FY26 confidence and ongoing investment in platform enhancements and product expansion.

The broker continues to prefer Netwealth's organic growth and higher earnings quality relative to Hub24 ((HUB)). Netwealth's near-term valuation is also now less demanding, explain the analysts.

The analysts higher assumed multiple highlights potential for operating leverage and improved margins over time.

Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $36.64 Difference: $4.86
If NWL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.06, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ONE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Oneview Healthcare reported a 32% year-on-year increase in second quarter cash receipts and 51% growth for the first half.

Despite this, operating cash outflow worsened to -Eur3.8m due to an around -12–15% year-on-year worsening in costs and timing of the R&D tax credit, explain the analysts.

New contract wins include 1,100 beds across two hospitals via the Baxter channel, while a major three-year customer extension lifted recurring revenue by circa 20% year-on-year.

Bell Potter expects first-half revenue to be in line with its Eur6.7m forecast but reduces its full-year revenue estimate by -4.3% and lifts expected 2025 operating loss at the earnings line by -37%.

Bell Potter lowers its valuation to 34c from 45c and retains a Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.06
If ONE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PME as Overweight (1) -

As Pro Medicus is priced for perfection, Morgan Stanley expects share price volatility around the company's FY25 earnings report on August 14.

Management offers "qualitative" guidance: "our pipeline remains strong and spans all market segments." The analyst's base case assumes all existing implementations are on schedule, creating a forecast three-year compound revenue and earnings (EBITDA) growth rate of over 30%.

Following the UC Health contract, more commentary is expected on the cardiology revenue ramp-up, as well as further details on the scope, size, and duration of the possible US Department of Veterans Affairs contract.

Morgan Stanley believes this would de-risk consensus earnings forecasts and provide confidence in achieving market share of over 30% in the future, up from 9% currently.

Overweight rated, with an unchanged $320 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $320.00 Current Price is $320.85 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $274.57, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the financial reporting season, Citi notes its top picks among diversified financials are Buy-rated AMP ((AMP)) and Challenger ((CGF)). For those with Neutral rating the broker's order of preference is Computershare ((CPU)), Perpetual and ASX ((ASX)).

The broker will look for commentary on simplification program from Perpetual and cost control steps for FY26-27. A key catalyst for the stock price is news on the proposed sale of the wealth management business.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $21.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $20.45 Difference: $0.55
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.85, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the August reporting season for insurance stocks, Citi highlights its preference for general insurance stocks, with the order of preference being QBE Insurance, Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Suncorp Group ((SUN)).

The broker expects a solid result from QBE Insurance, forecasting combined operating ratio (COR) of 93.5% for 1H25. FY25 COR is expected to be retained at 92.5%, though the broker still forecasts 92.3%.

Buyback is seen as less likely as the insurer is expected to favour organic growth opportunities.

Buy. Target unchanged at $26.10.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $22.53 Difference: $3.57
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.74, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Rio Tinto may be considering a sale of its titanium dioxide business, according to media reports, although the company has declined to comment, observes Morgan Stanley.

The broker believes portfolio simplification could be viewed positively by the market, signaling greater focus on Rio’s core assets in copper, iron ore, aluminium, and lithium. A reduction in net debt is also considered attractive.

Unfortunately, the analysts point out the titanium business is currently at a cyclical low, which may weigh on sale valuation and market reception.

Morgan Stanley values the TiO2 unit at around US$4.1bn compared to the consensus estimate of US$3.1bn.

The broker's Equal-weight rating and $118 target are unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $118.00 Current Price is $118.86 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.33, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Pointing to strong 1H results, Regal Partners' funds under management (FUM) rose 7% in the June quarter to $17.7bn, ahead of Bell Potter's $17.1bn estimate. Inflows of around $0.6bn beat the broker’s $0.08bn forecast.

Investment performance added $957m, or 5.8% of opening FUM, also exceeding the analysts' expectations, while other movements (including currency and distributions) subtracted -$353m.

Performance fees are now expected to be at least $40m, above the company’s initial guidance of $35m, supporting the broker's forecast normalised 1H profit of at least $40m.

Bell Potter revises its FY25 EPS forecast up by 2.1% but slightly trims FY26 and FY27, while lowering the assumed average management fee to 115bps.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and $3.55 target.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.65
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners announced 1H2025 net profit after tax guidance of at least $40m, which is above Morgans' estimate of $32.6m and consensus at $34.6m, due to a lift in performance fee expectations.

Funds under management for the June quarter rose 7% to $17.7bn, or 5.5% to $17.9bn when accounting for non-fee earning commitments.

Regal is due to report 1H25 earnings on August 25. Morgans raises its EPS estimates by 29% for 2025 and 5% for 2026.

Target price moves to $3.55 from $3.30, with no change to the Buy rating.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.65
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Regal Partners' June quarter update was solid with a 7% q/q increase in FUM to $17.7bn, which beat its forecast by 9%.

Drivers of the FUM growth were gains in long-short equity strategy and net inflows of fee-earning FUM in credit and royalty strategy. The company upgraded fee guidance for 1H25 to at least $40m from at least $35m.

EPS forecasts upgraded by 48.4%, 16.3% and 10.3% for FY25/FY26/FY27, respectively.

Buy. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.60.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $1.1
If RPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Australian job ad volumes declined -5% on the prior year in June, inferring a -10% fall for FY25, which is in line with Macquarie's expectations.

May job applications per ad reached a record high of 222, a rise of 2% on April, tracing at 104 applications per ad, a rise of 88% on the ten-year average.

Seek is due to report FY25 earnings on August 19, and the broker forecasts $155m net profit after tax, a decline of -13% on FY24, with the consensus estimate at $156m.

Outperform rating and $27 target retained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $24.04 Difference: $2.96
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.31, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGH as Buy (1) -

UBS holds a constructive view on the upcoming FY25 reporting season for the Australian engineering and construction (E&C) sector, citing resilient earnings growth potential.

The broker forecasts double-digit EPS growth for the sector in FY25 and FY26, outperforming the broader ASX200, which is expected to deliver -2% and 5% respectively.

Earnings growth in the sector is underpinned by favourable long-term drivers, including rising infrastructure investment in Australia. UBS believes this will benefit SGH Ltd and Downer EDI. Growing global energy demand is also expected to support Worley.

Management at SGH Ltd is guiding to high single-digit FY25 Group EBIT growth, in line with UBS's forecast of 7% and slightly below consensus at 10%.

For FY26, UBS expects EBIT growth of 6% (consensus 9%), supported by ongoing momentum in Industrial Services and a recovery in Beach Energy ((BPT)) operations.

The Buy rating and $60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $50.83 Difference: $9.17
If SGH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.31, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGR as No Rating (-1) -

UBS has a rating restriction on Star Entertainment.

Current Price is $0.12. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SNL as Accumulate (2) -

Supply Network's FY25 preliminary result showed a 15.3% increase in sales revenue to $348.8m but this fell -1.4% short of Ord Minnett's forecast. Net profit also missed the broker's forecast by -4.3%.

The broker cut FY25-27 earnings forecasts by -3% to -4% following the result.

Target price rises to $38.80 from $36.30 on valuation roll-forward. Accumulate maintained.

Target price is $38.80 Current Price is $38.49 Difference: $0.31
If SNL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STP as Buy (1) -

Step One Clothing’s FY25 trading update showed sales growth in line with Bell Potter's expectation at 4%. However, earnings (EBITDA) fell -4% year-on-year versus the broker's 1% growth forecast due to deeper discounting.

Gross margin pressure likely stemmed from promotional activity around 10% above Black Friday levels, suggests the broker, and marketing spend was kept low. Cash fell to $33m, slightly below the broker’s $35m estimate.

Despite margin compression, profitability remained resilient, supported by the company’s high-margin product model, explain the analysts.

Bell Potter trims its FY26–27 revenue forecasts by -2% and lowers FY26 and FY27 earnings growth forecasts by -4% and -5%, respectively. A turnaround is still anticipated from 2H26 driven by rate cuts and lower discounting.

Bell Potter lowers its target price to $1.25 from $1.30 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.55
If STP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Buy (1) -

Strike Energy will raise up to $88m via a placement to Carnarvon Energy ((CVN)) at 12cps, a -20% discount to the 10-day volume weighted average price. Carnarvon now becomes Strike Energy's largest shareholder at 19.9%, highlights Bell Potter.

An additional $10m is targeted via a Share Purchase Plan, lifting pro forma June 2025 cash to around $140m and net cash to circa $64m, the analysts estimate.

Placement proceeds will support South Erregulla power development, upstream activity at West Erregulla, a new well at Walyering, exploration, and general corporate purposes, observes the broker.

June quarter production from Walyering met the analysts' expectations at 2.3PJe, while revenue was slightly below at $18m.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating. The target falls to 19c from 24c given the capital raise.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.06
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.23, suggesting upside of 76.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the August reporting season for insurance stocks, Citi highlights its preference for general insurance stocks, with the order of preference being QBE Insurance ((QBE)), Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Suncorp Group.

The broker expects Suncorp Group to deliver on its insurance margin guidance towards the top end of 10-12% range, with its own forecast being 12%. Buyback announcement is expected and the broker has factored in $350m in the forecast.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $22.40.

Target price is $22.40 Current Price is $20.31 Difference: $2.09
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.43, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as No Rating (-1) -

UBS has a rating restriction on Tabcorp Holdings. 

Current Price is $0.77. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Ahead of Westpac's 3Q25 trading update, Morgan Stanley believes there's modest upside risk to consensus earnings revision but investor expectations are already optimistic.

The broker sees revenue as the key focus along with margin trend, with its own forecast for a -2bps decline to 1.78% vs 1H25.

Stressed assets are expected to edge higher but no surprise is expected on underlying trends, though the broker will remain alert to any single-name exposures.

Underweight. Target rises to $27.50 from $27.30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $33.03 Difference: minus $5.53 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.14, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Whitehaven Coal reported a strong quarterly rebound, suggests Bell Potter, with managed run-of-mine (ROM) production of 10.6mt (versus 9.5mt expected by the broker) and saleable production of 7.8mt against 7.9mt forecast.

Equity sales of 6.0mt were below the broker’s 6.5mt forecast due to shipping delays from poor weather, though Maules Creek delivered well on thermal coal output.

FY25 guidance was met, highlight the analysts, with group production and sales reaching the upper end of the range, and both unit costs and capex coming in below guidance.

The company ended FY25 with net debt of $0.6bn after the first -US$500m payment for the BMA acquisition.

FY26 guidance, due August 21, will likely include stronger Narrabri volumes and lower unit costs, suggest the analysts.

Bell Potter lowers its target price to $6.90 from $7.10 and downgrades to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.92, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

After a deeper analysis of Whitehaven Coal's June quarter report, Citi concluded production and costs beat expectations but operations free cash flow was lower than expected.

The broker cut underlying EBITDA forecast for FY25 by -14% and lifted FY26 by 1.6%.

Target price rises to $7.10 from $7.00. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $0.15
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.92, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights Whitehaven Coal reported 4Q25 ROM coal production, which was 14% better than expected due to Blackwater, up 17% at 4.1Mt after a wet 3Q25. Daunia also came in above forecast, up 7% to 1.5Mt.

The analyst lifts ROM production assumptions across Qld coal, Maules Creek, and Gunnedah, which results in a 2% lift in group production forecasts for FY26–FY30.

Qld realised prices of $209/t were some -6% below consensus and forecasts in AUD terms, while the group average price of $189/t was below consensus by -5%.

Macquarie raises its FY25 EPS estimate by 34% and FY26–FY30 by 12% on average.

Neutral rated with target up 27% to $7.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $0.05
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.92, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Whitehaven Coal has reported 10.6mt of run-of-mine (ROM) coal production for the June quarter, exceeding Morgan Stanley's estimate and consensus by around 10%.

The broker highlights record production at Blackwater and strong contributions from Maules Creek, Daunia, and Gunnedah.

Unit costs for FY25 came in at circa $139/t and capex at -$390m, both better than guidance and in line or better than Morgan Stanley's expectations.

Realised prices were in line, and net debt of $600m matched Morgan Stanley’s forecast but came in -$200m below consensus. The July payment to BMA was also lower than expected.

Narrabri’s Stage 3 low-capex update is awaited, while a new capital return framework is expected to be announced alongside August results, highlight the analysts.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $7.00. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.92, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOR as Buy (1) -

UBS holds a constructive view on the upcoming FY25 reporting season for the Australian engineering and construction (E&C) sector, citing resilient earnings growth potential.

The broker forecasts double-digit EPS growth for the sector in FY25 and FY26, outperforming the broader ASX200, which is expected to deliver -2% and 5% respectively.

Earnings growth in the sector is underpinned by favourable long-term drivers, including rising infrastructure investment in Australia. UBS believes this will benefit SGH Ltd and Downer EDI. Growing global energy demand is also expected to support Worley.

For Worley, UBS forecasts FY25 earnings (EBITA) of $829m (consensus $827m), and an earnings margin ex procurement of 8.5% at the top of management's targeted range of 8.0-8.5%. Looking to FY26, the broker forecasts FY26 earnings growth of 5%.

Target falls to $21 from $22. Buy.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $13.17 Difference: $7.83
If WOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the ongoing acceleration of tobacco sales declines is weighing on supermarket top-line growth. Positively, the impact on the FY26 outlook is expected to be no worse than in FY25, given the segment’s diminishing contribution to total sales.

The broker maintains a preference for consumer staples over discretionary, supported by valuation and a slower-than-expected consumer recovery.

Overweight-rated Woolworths Group and Coles Group remain Morgan Stanley’s preferred names in the sector.

The Woolworths Group target is $33.40. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $30.65 Difference: $2.75
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.07, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Intuit’s expansion into the US mid-market ERP space poses no material threat to Xero, as management remains focused on its core small and medium-sized business (SMB) segment.

The broker estimates there are around 6m US businesses in Xero’s target range of 2–19 employees, forming part of a US$21bn total addressable market (TAM) in revenue terms.

It's felt this sweet spot is worth US$3-4bn, 5-10x times larger than Xero's core A&NZ market.

Channel checks suggest to the analysts strong product improvement in the US over the past two years, including enhanced bank feeds, Melio payments integration, and Gusto payroll.

The key to long-term value uplift, in Morgan Stanley's view will be reducing churn, increasing ARPU, boosting subscriber growth, and lowering customer acquisition cost (CAC) to improve US customer lifetime value.

Overweight. Target $235. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $178.09 Difference: $56.91
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.17, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources