Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter saw Amplitude Energy releasing a strong quarterly update supported by strong performance at Orbost, while natural field decline in the Otways continued.

Commentary highlights the company received the Transocean Equinox rig on 21 January 2026 and the first of three firm wells for the East Coast Supply Project (50% owned) is expected to spud imminently.

A strong leverage to higher gas price projections is pushing forecasts higher by up to 47% (FY27). Target price improves to $3.40 from $3.08. Buy.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.45
If AEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Amplitude Energy has secured the Transocean Equinox rig for a four-well campaign, following ConocoPhillips’ 2/2 success in the Otway. This poses material upside risk beyond the broker's valuation.

The company will drill Elanora/Isabella-ST first, before returning later in 2026 for Juliet, Nestor and Annie-2, while benefiting from improved gas contract re-pricing into 2026, the broker highlights.

Amplitude will see 20% price uplift from 3Q26, the broker explains, driven by indexation and higher-priced contracts. This includes a 1PJ annual extension with Engie at Pelican Point capturing some electricity price upside.

Outperform reiterated. Target rises to $4.25 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $1.3
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Australian Finance Group delivered strong momentum in 2Q26 with network lodgements up 25% and 1H26 lodgements of $62bn, up 26%, Macquarie notes. This was led by an 82.5% y/y surge in high-margin AFG Securitisation lodgements.

EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 1.5% and by 4% for FY27.

With record activity, improving product mix, lower funding costs and operating leverage, the broker sticks to the Outperform rating.

Target rises to $3.03 from $2.96.

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $1.01
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Neutral (3) -

Auckland International Airport pointed to December international traffic growth of around 4% y/y, with recovery improving to -6% below pre-covid level in the month, Citi notes. Seat capacity grew 2% alongside higher load factors at 86%, up 1.1% y/y.

Domestic traffic growth remains sluggish, still -11% below pre-covid levels.

As background, the broker’s target price for the NZX listing is NZ$8.10. The stock is rated Neutral.

Target price is $7.13 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If AIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.13, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Aurelia Metals delivered record operational efficiency in the December quarter, reaching nameplate capacity at Peak and tracking toward the upper end of gold production guidance, Shaw and Partners highlights.

Production was driven by the successful Federation ramp-up, with higher ore volumes and grades lifting group output across gold and base metals. Gold output is tracking toward the upper end of FY26 guidance, while copper is trending to the lower end as mining prioritises high-grade gold zones to maximise cash flow.

The company remains well-funded with $124m in total liquidity. This positions Aurelia to continue de-risking Federation and Great Cobar, targeting 40kt of copper-equivalent output by FY28, the broker explains.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 42c.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.1
If AMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BML as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners reckons there's an opportunity in Boab Metals for investors seeking silver exposure, given the share price gains have lagged the stellar silver price rise. The broker points to silver rising to US$93/oz from US$66/oz since the FID on the company's Sorby Hills project.

The broker's modelling implies a valuation of $2.44/share, yet the share price has risen only modestly to around 49c. This disconnect reflects recent capital raisings, creating an attractive entry point as tranche 2 placement shares begin trading.

Target rises to $1.08 from $0.77, assuming a medium-term silver pullback to US$50/oz. Buy, High Risk retained.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.59
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 120% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BWN as Buy (1) -

The highlight of Bhagwan Marine's 1H26 update was strong free cash flow of $8.4m, beating Shaw and Partners' forecast of $2.5m. Tighter working capital discipline and net debt well below expectations were other positives.

Capex of $12.5m was in line with forecasts, with a further $6m vessel payment due in 2H26, while margins are expected to improve in 2H.

The broker downgraded FY26 EBITDA forecast by -3% following the lower-than-expected EBITDA from softer revenue in 1H26, but notes recent contract wins provide revenue support across the forecast period.

Buy, High Risk maintained. Target stays at 80c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.32
If BWN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

Citi remains upbeat on Charter Hall, highlighting record equity flows into the business and growth in transaction activity over 2H2025, post conversations with market participants.

The outlook for 2026 remains positive, with inflows offering optionality and spending lower for transactions, noting the new convenience retail fund has been buying assets towards the end of 2025.

While acknowledging the November FY26 guidance upgrade, the broker believes there is further scope for upside in FY26 earnings. The interim result is due out on February 19.

Target price lifted to $27 from $26.10. Buy rated.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.92 Difference: $3.08
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.38, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVN as Buy (1) -

On Bell Potter's assessment, Evolution Mining issued a "strong" December quarter trading update. All-In-Sustaining-Costs (AISC) surprised to the downside, at 1,274/oz versus a forecast of $1,446/oz, dropping -26% on the preceding quarter.

The increase in gold production and steady copper production proved to be in line with forecasts. Ernest Henry has been impacted by heavy rainfall.

Bell Potter points out the benefits from copper, adding this is what differentiates this company from most peers. As the market is catching up on this, the expectation is for continued relative outperformance.

Target jumps by 35% to $16.70 (was $12.35). Buy.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $14.11 Difference: $2.59
If EVN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FEX as Buy (1) -

Post the company's quarterly update revealing record iron ore production, Bell Potter comments Fenix Resources has outlined a clear pathway to incrementally grow iron ore production to 10Mtpa at significantly lower unit costs.

To achieve its target, the company is leveraging its integrated logistics network to underpin cash flows and fund its substantial organic growth outlook.

EPS forecast falls by -12% in FY26; by -2% in FY27; and lifts by 4% in FY28. The undiscounted valuation lifts to $1.10/sh (Weld Range valuation is risked 40%).

Target price 70c. Buy. No dividends are projected for the time being.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.23
If FEX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Fortescue's December quarter (2Q26) report was largely in line on production, shipments and prices, Macquarie observes. Costs, however, were higher than consensus by 6%, driven by higher-cost stockpiles, fuel and FX.

FY26 shipment guidance of 195-205Mt was unchanged. Net debt rose to US$1bn, higher than consensus by US$0.1bn despite capex running -US$0.2bn below consensus, implying a working capital build during the quarter, the broker notes.

Rising net debt and cooling iron ore sentiment from new Simandou supply highlight downside risk, given the company's strong iron ore leverage, the broker cautions.

Underperform. Target unchanged at $21.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $21.48 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.39, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley recently downgraded Fortescue to Underweight due to limited upside to mine optimising potential and after lifting its cost forecasts above consensus.

Following the December quarter update, the analyst notes 2% higher hematite costs against its forecast and 6% above consensus. Hematite production was a slight miss of -1.6% on the broker’s forecast and -0.6% below consensus, while shipments were a slight beat.

Hematite mined ore at 52mt came in lower than expected for both the analyst and consensus.

Iron Bridge production was a miss of 2.2mt, -15.4% below Morgan Stanley and -16.7% below consensus, with an indicated price realisation of 102.5%, some 3.6% higher than expected. The plant continued to fail to meet expectations.

Target retained at $19.75 with an Underweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $21.48 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.39, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue announced a “solid” 4Q26 update with record 1H26 iron ore shipments and robust realised prices, UBS notes.

Hematite costs advanced more than anticipated due to mine plan and strip ratio, as well as timing issues on production versus sales.

The ramp up of Iron Bridge continues, with production over 1mt in December, and group FY26 guidance retained.

The analyst tweaks EPS forecasts by -1% for FY26 and up 2% for FY27.

Neutral rating and $20 target unchanged.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $21.48 Difference: minus $1.48 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.39, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPR as Outperform (1) -

FleetPartners Group delivered a soft December quarter (1Q26) with core income up 2%, but NBW (new business writings) down -13% amid subdued conditions and delayed fleet renewal, Macquarie observes.

AUMOF (assets under management or financing) remained broadly stable at $2.4bn (including Remunerator), with end-of-lease income holding above long-term levels. NBW is expected to show only marginal growth in FY26, the broker explains.

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 1.4% to reflect lower opex in the near term, partly offset by a more modest AUMOF growth forecast while FY27 trimmed by -0.2%.

Outperform retained. Target trimmed to $3.36 from $3.59.

Target price is $3.36 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.57
If FPR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights new business writings (NBW) for FleetPartners Group, post AGM update, has started FY26 largely as expected. 1Q26 NBW is down around -13% y/y, as flagged at FY25 results, due to slower decision-making and other factors.

Management pointed to a 2H26 skew for NBW, which infers around $200m NBW per quarter for the balance of the fiscal year, and is considered achievable.

Overweight retained with a $3.60 target.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.81
If FPR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FPR as Buy (1) -

FleetPartners Group's December quarter trading update slightly missed Ord Minnett's numbers, but the broker continues to see "value" in the share price.

Buy rating retained alongside a $3.40 price target (down from $3.50).

Both the Novated and Fleet AU businesses underwhelmed the broker, though management has guided towards increased New Business writings over FY26, commentary highlights.

Forecasts have been trimmed.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.61
If FPR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter saw Generation Development updating the market with a rather mixed quarterly performance. Investment Bonds outperformed expectations, but Managed Accounts underwhelmed.

The latter disappointment seems to be related to timing issues, with funds flows expected to pick up strongly in Q3.

Bell Potter believes $7.1bn in flows is achievable for H2 and thus retains a positive view. The company also announced its long-term ambition to partner with Ironbark, which, again, is seen as a major boost for future growth.

Small changes only have been made to forecasts. Lower sector multiples have depressed the price target to $7.90 from $8.40. Buy rating retained on structural growth and strategic progress.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $2.25
If GDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GDG as Buy (1) -

According to Citi, Generation Development announced a mixed 2Q26 update, with FUM up 17% y/y due to more moderate net flows in Evidentia, which the analyst attributes to a deferral of timing on mandates.

The trend is expected to improve in 2H26 and a forecast FUM of $40.5bn is retained. Noting quarterly flows can be “lumpy”, Citi continues to view the outlook for managed accounts will be boosted by structural tailwinds.

Investment bonds continue to progress well above expectations before Division 296 tailwinds come in, the broker states.

Citi trims EPS forecasts by -0.8% for FY26 and lifts FY27 by around 0.1%. Buy rating and $7.50 target retained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $1.85
If GDG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GDG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Generation Development's GenLife delivered a record quarter in December (2Q26) with investment bond FUM (funds under management) up 34% y/y to $5.2bn. This was supported by consistent $100m-plus monthly inflows and growing adviser engagement.

Evidentia 2Q net inflows of $1.6bn missed expectations due to scheme timing, pushing flows into 3Q. FUM rose 36% y/y to $34.5bn but came in -2% below forecasts.

With 50% of 2H26 managed account FUM growth already secured and a strong client pipeline, the broker remains confident in Generation's ability to deliver accelerated growth.

FY26 EPS forecast trimmed by -4%, but FY27 lifted by 2% and FY28 by 3%. Target rises to $6.75 from $6.70, and Outperform maintained.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $1.1
If GDG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views Generation Development’s 2Q26 update as meeting expectations and in line with consensus.

Gen Life investment bonds grew FUM by 34% to $5.2bn, 1% above the analyst’s forecast. Net flows rose 69% y/y to $330m, with market movements of $17.5m, below forecast.

Evidentia FUM rose 36% y/y to $34.5bn, with delays on around $400-$500m which have been deferred into 3Q26, the major miss on expectations.

Management highlighted six new client wins in FY26 as attainable and suggested a 5/7 split for 1H26 and 2H26, with most in 3Q26 boosted by backlog and Hub24 ((HUB)) transitions.

Any share price weakness is believed to be a buying opportunity for the stock. Overweight. Target unchanged at $7.50. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $1.85
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Morgans describes Generation Development's 2Q26 update as positive overall, driven by record Investment Bond (IB) sales, offsetting Evidentia FUM coming in -2% below consensus.

Evidentia FUM rose $2bn to $34.5bn in the quarter vs the consensus of $35.1bn.  Management cited timing of scheme commencements as the key driver, with several contracted schemes set to start in 3Q26, supporting confidence in stronger 2H inflows.

2Q26 IB sales were a record $392m, up 57% y/y, exceeding the prior quarterly high and outperforming the broker's forecast of $262m.

The broker lifted FY26-27 EPS forecasts by 1-2%. Target rises modestly to $7.97 from $7.95, and Buy is retained.

Target price is $7.97 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $2.32
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes GenusPlus Group has upgraded its FY26 EBITDA growth guidance to circa 35%, up from the prior guidance range of 20-25% and above the broker's estimate of 23%.

The upgrade stems from outperformance in the Energy & Engineering and Services segments, with Infrastructure performing as per expectations.

Bell Potter highlights management’s track record of exceeding guidance over the past two years and suggests this week's upgrade so early into the financial year is "highly encouraging of further positive surprises to come".

Price target lifts to $8.70 from $7.50 on upgraded forecasts. Buy.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $1.13
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HZR as Buy (1) -

Hazer Group's December quarterly highlighted material progress toward commercial scale-up after the company delivered maiden operating revenue from engineering services in FY25, Shaw and Partners observes.

Cash inflow and quarter-end cash outperformed the broker's forecasts.

Buy, High Risk rating and 70c target price are unchanged.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.21
If HZR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as No Rating (-1) -

Insignia Financial’s 2Q26 net cash flows included ongoing strength in wrap net flows and improving retail asset management multi-asset net flows, with a sizeable contribution from managed account solutions, Citi details.

Net outflows for master trust continued over the period, although management inferred retention rates in term accounts and members had improved on the prior year.

AUM rose 3.5% to the end of 1H26, some 1% above consensus and broadly in line with Citi’s expectations. No change to the analyst’s EPS forecasts.

Citi currently has its rating on Insignia Financial suspended.

Current Price is $4.66. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has updated its modeling to include the acquisition of Daily Press. The net impact on underlying EPS forecasts translates into increases of 2%, 4% and 6% in FY26, FY27 and FY28, respectively.

Commentary concludes the balance sheet can accommodate an increase in dividends and still leave room for further acquisitions of up to around $30m without needing to use or raise equity.

Various changes have been made to the valuation methodology. The net outcome is a 5% increase to the price target, now at $3.25. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.39
If IGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers JB Hi-Fi’s target price to $94 from $110 while retaining a Neutral weighting. This follows EPS forecast cut by -4% for FY26 and -5% for FY27 due to lower like-for-like sales growth and earnings (EBIT) margins for The Good Guys.

Weaker sales are the culprit for some margin pressure, even though the retailer continues to manage costs well, the analyst explains.

Furthermore, JB Hi-Fi is cycling higher comps for 2Q26, which is one of the reasons for the challenge to consensus earnings forecasts.

As one of the most long crowded retailers, potential for EPS downgrades could further weigh on the share price, which has underperformed year-to-date by -21.6%, UBS details.

Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $86.55 Difference: $7.45
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.93, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths' December quarter was plagued by power outages in Kalgoorlie and planned maintenance in Kuantan, Bell Potter observes.

But while the result disappointed on production, the power outages look to be resolved, the broker points out, at least for now.

The positive came through a higher than forecast basket price which, commentary suggests, appears to have been driven by mix and product premiums.

The broker states it is uncertain how long the company can manage this, but irrespectively, it does bode well for near-term margin protection.

Sell. Target price jumps to $11.15 from $9.60.

Target price is $11.15 Current Price is $16.75 Difference: minus $5.6 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.07, suggesting downside of -16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NST as Buy (1) -

Northern Star Resources' Q2 included production disruptions across several operating assets. Bell Potter notes management has provided more details about AISC breakdown and production guidance, including an increase in capex projections.

The broker also notes the investor call highlighted frustrations on forward guidance and the lack of clear and timely information.

Bell Potter is of the view most of the above is already priced into the share price. Its price target has improved to $31.10 from $30. Buy. Forecasts have been upgraded.

Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $26.18 Difference: $4.92
If NST meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.48, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources remains Neutral rated with a higher target of $28.50 from $27.50 previously. Citi sees the stock as attractive post three downgrades in three weeks versus its peers, with an implied gold price of US$3,470/oz.

The ramp-up of the new mill at LCGM is a key driver for the gold producer, with a miss on production guidance over the last four years to an average of 5.2% an overhang.

The analyst models the ramp-up at 19mt, which is considered “conservative” in FY27 against the target of 23mt.

Citi lifts its gold price forecast by 6% for FY26 and 13% for FY27, with a rise in the long-term price to US$3,600/oz from US$3,200/oz.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $26.18 Difference: $2.32
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.48, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources' 2Q gold sales were pre-reported, and the AISC (cost) in the December quarter update of $2,937/oz came -3% below Macquarie's forecast.

Growth capex at KCGM mine, however, increased $173m on higher labour and accelerated TSF development, the broker notes. 

The broker reckons the company may be entering a cleaner 2H, highlighting the stock's underperformance vs peers and cheaper screening vs forecast FY27 multiples.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $31.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $26.18 Difference: $4.82
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.48, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Accumulate (2) -

Increased risks stemming from KCGM's transformation is likely to keep Northern Star Resources' valuation at a discount for the time being, analysts at Ord Minnett predict.

Management has just downgraded production guidance for FY26. Ord Minnett suggests it is now of the highest importance other assets in the portfolio do perform.

Once reinvestments in KGCM and Hemi provide growth and a better positioning on the cost curve, the emphasis on other assets will shrink, but that scenario is still years away.

Target price reduces to $27.40 on lower forecasts (down from $28.20). DPS forecasts have been lifted. Accumulate.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $26.18 Difference: $1.22
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.48, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades Northern Star Resources to Neutral from Buy with a lower target of $26.90 from $29.45. This follows the update on cost guidance, which comes after the pre-reported December quarter sales miss and downgrade in FY26 production guidance.

The analyst makes further downgrades to incorporate the rise in AISC (all-in-sustaining-costs), with production forecast around 1,530koz at the low end of guidance and costs of $2,850/oz at the higher end of guidance.

Another delay in Hemi is expected and capex to rise to around $2.8bn. UBS lowers EPS forecasts by -12% for FY26 and -11% for FY27.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $26.18 Difference: $0.72
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.48, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Netwealth Group delivered strong custodial net flows of $4.06bn in 2Q26, slightly ahead of Citi’s forecasts despite one-off outflows.

Custodial FUA (funds under administration) reached $124.4bn, up 23% y/y, and 1% ahead of the broker’s forecast, with market movements contributing $0.6bn versus the analyst’s expectation of a negative impact.

The negative surprise was a lower-than-expected FY26 EBITDA margin guidance of 49%, -170bps lower versus the broker’s estimate, due to higher costs.

The analyst lifts its FY26 opex forecast to 24% growth, up $38m on FY25, which should result in a decline in the 2H26 gross earnings (EBITDA) margin.

Accordingly, Citi lowers its EPS forecasts by -2.5% for FY26 and -0.8% for FY27, with a slip in target price to $28.90 from $29.80. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $28.90 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $4.03
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Netwealth Group's December quarter net inflows of $4.06bn were ahead of Macquarie's $3.8bn forecast but fell short of consensus. Platform FUA (funds under administration) of $124.4bn and account growth were broadly in line with expectations.

Average cash balances beat the broker's estimate, providing a modest earnings tailwind for 1H26, the broker highlights.

The company guided to a lower FY26 EBITDA margin of 49%, below the broker's 50% estimate, and higher software investment. FUA net flows were also guided to be broadly in line with FY25, with the broker's revised forecast now at $15.4bn, in line with FY25.

FY26 EPS forecast downgraded by -3.7% on lower EBITDA margins, but FY28 upgraded slightly on higher net flows forecast.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target trimmed to $32.40 from $33.05 to valuation amendment.

Target price is $32.40 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $7.53
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWL as Overweight (1) -

On first inspection, Morgan Stanley highlights 2Q26 net inflows of $4.2bn met expectations, with market movements boosting FUA, which generated “solid” growth. Higher capex and opex than consensus offset the improvement in FUA, up 23.6% y/y to $125.6bn.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance with FUA “not materially different from FY25” and earnings (EBITDA) margin around 49%, below consensus of 51.6%.

Overweight rating reiterated. Target at $41.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $16.13
If NWL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Netwealth Group's Q2 update seems to have disappointed on EBITDA margin guidance because of higher costs. Ord Minnett maintains the business continues to perform strongly, carried by strong funds inflows.

Net flows for the platform proved slightly better than forecast but it's the cost growth outlook that is keeping the rating on Hold. Target price has declined to $25.50 (from $27.75).

Part of Ord Minnett's caution on costs is related to regulatory scrutiny. Estimates have been pared back.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $0.63
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group announced 2Q26 FUA up 3.9% q/q, underpinned by net flows up 3.4% and 0.5% from market movement, UBS details, which produced a slightly weaker than expected result.

Higher gross outflows impacted FUA, while management offered new gross margin guidance of around 49%, which is below consensus at 50.7% and FY25 at 50.4%, which infers to the broker higher FY26 cost growth.

UBS lowers EPS forecasts by -2% for FY26 and FY27. No change to Neutral rating and $28.50 target price.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $3.63
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Citi is expecting a “solid” result for cans at the upcoming Orora interim results, with the Gawler performance unknown.

The flagged 2H26 growth in Saverglass is questioned by the analyst, given the more subdued macro backdrop and the robust comps on the previous year.

Target price slips to $2.30 from $2.35. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.19
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNR as Trim (4) -

Morgans assesses Pantoro Gold's December quarter (2Q26) update as soft, putting FY26 production guidance at risk as only 39.6% of the midpoint has been achieved at the half-year mark.

Higher realised gold prices boosted revenue but 2Q AISC (cost) was elevated at $2,571/oz. This, together with weaker-than-expected grades, keeps execution risk high, in the broker's view.

The broker downgraded longer-term grade and production assumptions, driving a -11% cut to EBITDA forecasts. 

Trim maintained. Target cut to $5.00 from $5.02 after the broker also included the update and higher gold prices into the model.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If PNR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Buy (1) -

Pantoro Gold's Q2 update was a disappointment, but Ord Minnett believes the market reaction was out of kilter, though H2 delivery will be required to see the present valuation discount unwind.

Earnings estimates have weakened, which pulls down the broker's price target by -1% to $7.10. Buy rating retained as the share price is well below that level.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $1.95
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the rate of decline in total net listings in December improved to flat growth y/y from a decline of -4% in November y/y.

The analyst estimates new listings fell -5.7% y/y for 1H26, which aligns with expectations at -6%, with December typically a seasonally weaker month.

The two highest yielding markets, Sydney and Melbourne, realised 1H26 new listings growth of 1% y/y, and comps are anticipated to become easier over 2H26 as 2H25 was down -4% y/y.

Citi is expecting two interest rate hikes for the first half of 2026, which may have a negative impact on listings.

REA Group is Neutral rated with a $222.70 target.

Target price is $222.70 Current Price is $185.90 Difference: $36.8
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $248.39, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as No Rating (-1) -

Rio Tinto reported 4Q2025 production which saw guidance met or beaten across the portfolio, UBS notes.

Iron ore delivered record production, with shipments at 91mt, better than the 88mt consensus forecast, and realised pricing at $90/dmt FOB, which is around -4% below benchmark.

Some 1mt was produced by Simandou, with stockpiles continuing to advance at the SimFer mine gate. Aluminium and alumina met market expectations, with bauxite beating.

Copper production of 240kt was well above consensus of circa 215kt, with improvements at Kennecott and the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up.

Rio Tinto is on UBS’ restriction list. No rating or target price.

Current Price is $151.02. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $139.60, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Regis Resources' December quarterly included group production above expectation and costs in line, comment analysts at Bell Potter. Their labeling is one of a solid quarterly performance.

The broker equally notes operating cash flow for the quarter of $419m was up 44% from $290m QoQ, seen as showcasing the company's "exceptional leverage" to the gold price.

The broker lifting its gold pricing projections pushes up EPS forecasts for FY26 by 32%, for FY27 by 70% and for FY28 by 47%.

Target price has improved to $8.85 from $7.05. Buy.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $1.27
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources' December quarter (2Q26) update showed sales beat expectations, with FY26 production and cost guidance retained, Macquarie observes. Exploration spend was, however, lifted by $20m to accelerate drilling.

A strong cash and bullion balance of $930m underpins potential capital returns, with the company advising a formal capital management policy will be released at 1H26 results.

EPS forecast for FY26 rises 2% to reflect the company's reported depreciation figures. Target unchanged at $7.60 and Neutral retained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $0.02
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Hold (3) -

On Morgans assessment, Regis Resources delivered a "strong" Q2 update, also including record quarterly cash and bullion generation of $255m.

The three key drivers have been identified as stable performance at Duketon, a sharp uplift in gold sales at Tropicana and continued strength in spot gold prices.

Against a positive underlying sentiment, the broker also points out that due to an elevated cost base and sensitivity to gold price volatility, Regis provides less downside protection relative to lower-cost peers.

Higher gold price forecasts have lifted forecasts. Price target jumps to $8.05 from $6.17. Hold.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $0.47
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Regis Resources pre-released its 2Q26 update with production of 96.6koz for 1H26 at 189.6koz, which is at the upper end of FY26 guidance.

The analyst notes Tropicana improved and outperformed after a weaker start to the year. Cash on hand grew to $255m for the quarter and total, including bullion, to $930m, with UBS forecasting an average gold price of $7,300/oz for the rest of FY26.

The broker emphasises Regis is focusing on its producing asset base and operational consistency, which puts it in a strong position to capitalise on higher gold prices.

No change to Buy rating, with a higher target of $8.55 from $8.30 previously.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $0.97
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie describes Resolute Mining's December quarter (4Q2025) operational update as strong, with production beating expectations and 2026 guidance ahead of the consensus by 5%.

The company, though, guided to 7% higher AISC (cost) and increased growth capex dominated by Doropo.

While Mali geopolitical risk remains a key overhang, a materially improved balance sheet lowers expected peak debt and supports Doropo funding, in the broker's view.

2026 EPS forecast lifted by 9% mainly on a stronger production outlook. Target rises to $1.55 from $1.45, and Outperform maintained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.26
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses South32's December quarter (2Q26) update as strong, with a beat in aluminium and silver, while copper, zinc and manganese were broadly in line.

The Brazil Aluminium asset, however, missed consensus due to energy disruptions, and the broker reckons it was cash flow negative in 1H26.

Missing in the report was an update on Hermosa given sector capex inflation, with the broker noting its modelling already assumes higher costs of US$2.3bn vs US$2.1bn sanctioned in 2024.

Following the update and revisions to by-product grades, the broker's FY26 EPS forecast rises by 59% and FY27 by 32%.

Outperform. Target rises to $4.60 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.2
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32 reported a good 2Q26 update according to Morgan Stanley, with financial metrics a slight beat on consensus. Alumina came in better than consensus and in line with the analyst, while manganese met consensus and was below the broker’s forecast.

Copper met consensus and missed Morgan Stanley, while silver was a strong beat on the analyst by 8% and consensus by 17%.

The diversified miner retained FY26 guidance, with Brazil aluminium guidance under review after pot outages and energy issues. No change to cost guidance, with no update on the possible Moxal shutdown.

Overweight retained. Target price $4.70. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.3
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 delivered a modest operational beat in the December quarter (2Q26), supported by strong alumina and silver output, partly offsetting disappointing Brazil Aluminium, Morgans notes.

The company left FY26 guidance unchanged but flagged Brazil Aluminium is under review.

Following the Illawarra divestment, South32 is now 90% base metals, carrying limited execution risk and benefiting from higher copper, aluminium and silver prices, the broker highlights.

Target rises to $5.00 from $4.30, reflecting updated metal price forecasts and FX assumptions. Buy maintained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.6
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades South32 to Buy from Neutral with a higher target of $4.90 from $4. This follows an upgrade in EPS forecasts by 35% for FY26 and 8% for FY27 post the 2Q26 update.

The quarterly result was viewed as “solid”, with most assets meeting or exceeding expectations and management retaining FY26 guidance.

The analyst believes South32’s reputation as a reliable operator continues to evolve, which justifies a re-rating of the stock. It also offers an attractive commodity mix, with UBS positive on aluminium and copper, albeit with risks to a near-term pullback or consolidation.

Silver is also trading well above forecasts, which gives upside potential to earnings at Cannington and Hermosa.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.5
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Seek’s Australian new job listings fell -3.5% y/y in December, following a decline of -2.9% y/y in November. Management noted the usual December weakness was more pronounced than usual, Citi notes.

Seek NZ job listings rose 6.7% y/y in December versus 7.5% in November.

The analyst estimates blended job ads for Australia and New Zealand are down -2.4% for 1H26, which aligns with the FY26 forecast around -2% y/y.

Lower cost growth is expected to offer upside potential for the platform’s earnings (EBITDA). Two forecast interest rate hikes could impact negatively on 2H26 job ad volumes.

Seek is rated Buy with a $29.55 target.

Target price is $29.55 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: $6.97
If SEK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.26, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Seek's latest report showed Australian job ads fell -3% y/y in December and were down -1% m/m, but in line with the 1H26 average, Macquarie highlights.

The broker reiterates 1H26 A&NZ volumes may be around -2% lower and will require a stronger 2H to meet the flat FY26 guidance. Likely interest rate hikes put this at risk, the broker states.

Still, the broker thinks FY26 earnings should be driven mainly by higher yields from the April 2025 ad-ladder changes and operating leverage as the platforms are unified.

Outperform. Target price $32.50.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: $9.92
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.26, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Sandfire Resources delivered a solid cost outcome in the December quarter with C1 cash costs at Motheo/MATSA beating consensus, driven by strong silver by-product credits.

The broker highlights Sandfire's silver exposure could rise to 15% of revenue if elevated spot prices continue.

While Motheo faced operational issues that weighed on sales, the broker notes it reached a near net cash position, improving balance sheet optionality.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -3% on higher costs with a minor revision for FY27. Target rises to $19.60 from $16.90 on increase in EBITDA multiple to 9x from 7x.

Neutral maintained.

Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $19.11 Difference: $0.49
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.52, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Sandfire Resources’ 2Q26 trading update missed expectations versus consensus, Morgan Stanley highlights.

Group copper production of 24.1kt was pre-released, but group costs came in 15.9% higher than the broker’s forecast and -1% lower than consensus, due to Matsa, which was considerably above expectations.

Motheo copper production was a slight miss, with a lower copper head grade offset somewhat by 92% recovery, with unit costs expected to rise in 2H26.

Underweight. Target $16.15. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $16.15 Current Price is $19.11 Difference: minus $2.96 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.52, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SFR as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes Sandfire Resources' December quarter (2Q26) was impacted by temporary disruptions at Motheo, leaving production 2H-weighted (46:54) to meet FY26 guidance.

Still, the broker remains confident of a stronger 2H26 outlook with remediation largely complete, improving plant availability and higher-grade ore from T3 and A4 feeding the plant

The broker notes 1H26 underlying EBITDA is expected to be US$304m, up 11% half-on-half, vs its forecast of US$309m and the consensus of US$329m.

Spot copper prices are 20% above forecasts, underpinning strong upgrade potential, making the current 7x FY26 EBITDA multiple more attractive if price strength persists, in the broker's view.

Hold. Target rises to $18.90 from $17.50.

Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $19.11 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.52, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

Sandfire Resources’ 2Q26 update was slightly weaker than anticipated, UBS notes, arising from problems and maintenance brought forward at Motheo’s SAG mill.

Management retained FY26 guidance of 102-114kt of copper with a 1H:2H split at 46:54, with net cash of $13m for the first time in 2Q.

The broker raises EPS forecasts by 20% for FY26 and 10% for FY27 and believes Black Butte may be “offloaded”, with material returns flagged for August. This includes a franking balance of $262m, share buybacks and discretionary investment as part of the capital framework.

No change to Sell rating, awaiting a pullback in the share price. Target rises to $17.75 from $16.85 previously on a more upbeat production outlook.

Target price is $17.75 Current Price is $19.11 Difference: minus $1.36 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.52, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi observes the positive share price response to Santos’ 2026 guidance for production, which came in below consensus by -2%, and capex around 4% higher.

The share price rally is viewed as a “relief” response to Barossa moving past the most adverse aspects of the commissioning risk and Pikka proceeding well.

Management announced a May 26 Strategy Day, which is also anticipated to be an important update for investors, including a refreshed capital management program.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -5.9% for 2025 and -18.9% for 2026.

Target price is trimmed to $7 from $7.25. Buy rating unchanged, with the de-risking of major projects a key aspect of the positive view.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: $0.62
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

The highlight for Macquarie in Santos' December quarter update was 2026 guidance of 101-111Mmboe, which met its forecast, marking a key step-up year for the company.

Barossa's first LNG cargo loading (departure expected over the weekend) and imminent Pikka first oil significantly de-risk the growth outlook, the broker explains.

The broker notes capex and gearing are tracking as expected, and a free cash flow inflection is approaching as ramp-ups progress.

Outperform reiterated, with Barossa and Pikka set to underpin a more compelling investor narrative into the May 26 investor day. Target unchanged at $7.75.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: $1.37
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the market will be relieved by Santos’ 4Q2025 update, with 2026 production guidance for the first time of 101-111MMboe versus the broker’s forecast at 114MMboe and consensus at 111MMboe.

Quarterly production came in at 22.3MMboe, up 7% q/q and above expectations for the analyst by 2%, and below consensus by -4%.

Sales rose 9% q/q and fell -12% y/y, with capex at US$619m, down -2% q/q, some 26% above consensus but -12% lower than the broker’s estimate.

2025 results are due February 18, with Alaska first oil late 1Q2026, the AGM on April 16, and an Investor Day on May 26.

Target unchanged at $6.55. Equal-weight retained, and Industry view is In Line.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: $0.17
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes Santos' 4Q2025 update was in line with expectations, with 2025 production of 87.7Mmboe coming within the tight guidance of 87-88Mmboe.

Updates on Barossa and Pikka were incremental negatives, however, including a 2-month Barossa ramp-up delay and a US$200m Pikka Phase 1 capex increase. The wide 2026 guidance of 101-111Mmboe captures this uncertainty, the broker observes.

4Q revenue was stronger than expected, supported by higher LNG and condensate sales and solid operational performance across PNG LNG, GLNG, Cooper and WA.

Minor revisions to forecasts. Hold maintained, with a lower target of $6.60 from $6.80.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: $0.22
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

On Ord Minnett's observation, Santos' December-quarter revenue came in above market expectations, the 'beat' driven by increased third-party sales and stronger prices for LNG from Papua New Guinea.

Output was a touch below consensus. 2025 EPS estimate lifts by 5.9%. 2026 and 2027 forecasts are reduced by -1.7% and -0.9%, respectively.

The broker's target loses -20c to $7.60. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on less risk to the investment thesis.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: $1.22
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos announced lower than expected 4Q2025 production, a miss of -4% on consensus, although as expected there was a deferred start for Barossa, UBS remarks.

Positively, sales volumes and revenues beat by 5%, while 2026 production guidance was -4% below expectations at the midpoint due to the Barossa ramp up and Pikka oil.

The analyst believes Santos is on track to move its current dividend policy of over 40% of free cash flow to over 60% in 2H26.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -2% to -6% for 2025-2026 with reduced production expectations on a slower ramp up for Barossa gas and Pikka oil.

Target price at $7.80 unchanged with Buy retained.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: $1.42
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Buy (1) -

UBS retains a Buy rating on Xero while lowering the target to $174 from $194 following cut in EPS forecasts by -9% for FY26 and -29% for FY27. The broker highlights the share price has fallen -49% since June.

The market underappreciates Melio, in the broker's view. The broker ascribes a $17.80 value as a standalone, with losses starting to improve post acquisition in October 2025.

There is potential upside if signs of cross-selling in the US from Xero plus Melio emerge, and the analyst expects Melio to break even by FY30.

Core accounting, including US revenues, is expected to advance at a 17% CAGR over the next three years, with earnings (EBITDA) minus capex CAGR of around 30% from efficiencies in the core from price growth and developing scale.

Target price is $174.00 Current Price is $97.76 Difference: $76.24
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $196.72, suggesting upside of 94.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources