Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minette notes AGL Energy's 1H25 net profit was well ahead of market expectations, driven by wider margins. The interim dividend met the consensus forecast.

The company tightened FY25 earnings guidance as strong customer market margins are expected to erode in 2H, interest costs increase, and D&A charges drag on the bottom line. The broker expects these drivers will likely spill into FY26.

Following the result, the analyst cut both FY26 and FY26 EPS estimates by -3%. Target price lowered to $11.0 from $11.2, and rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.96 Difference: $0.04
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.92, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects refining will drag on cash flow in the second half of 2024 for Ampol, given a tough fourth quarter. The company reports its full year results on February 24.

The broker retains estimates for 2024 but downgrades EPS forecast for 2025 by -3% on higher finance costs that more than offset upgrades in refining & convenience retail earnings. Target is reduced to $30.65 from $31.00 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $30.65 Current Price is $27.76 Difference: $2.89
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.10, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the sale of Plarium to Modern Times Group, announced last November, has now completed.

Management explained proceeds (up to US$820m) will be "deployed consistent with Aristocrat's long-term strategy and established capital management framework".

An update on capital management will be provided at the AGM on February 20.

Overweight rating. Target $68.20. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $68.20 Current Price is $76.49 Difference: minus $8.29 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $74.39, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

At first take, the 2024 results from AMP did not quite meet Citi's estimates. The main surprise was in the bank division which delivered upside versus forecasts as cost reductions were ahead of expectations.

The business was "hurt" by slowly lower investment earnings yet cash flow trends remain relatively encouraging, the broker adds. The final dividend of 1c was lower than forecast. Neutral rating and $1.70 target.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

On first inspection, UBS notes AMP reported 2H24 underlying net profit after tax above consensus by 1% and ahead of UBS' estimate by 5%.

Notably, net outflows showed ongoing improvement at -$269m in 2H24, compared to the broker's forecast of -$592m.

Platform and superannuation and investment assets under management were also 1% better than forecast.

UBS notes 2025 guidance is mixed, with better cost management. Sell rated with a $1.25 target price.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AQZ as Add (1) -

With the ongoing expansion of the E190 fleet, Morgans notes Alliance Aviation Services reported a "solid" 1H25 earnings result, with revenue advancing 11.3% and net profit after tax rising 9.9%, exceeding the analyst's forecast of 7.3% growth.

Flight hours rose 14%, compared to a forecast decline of -2.7%, due to a lift in wet lease flight hours, the broker explains.

Due to a significant rise in depreciation/amortisation and net interest costs over FY26/FY27 as the company takes delivery of 13 E190 aircraft in the next year, Morgans lowers net profit before tax estimates by -6.5% for FY26 and -13.6% for FY27.

The broker's FY25 earnings forecast slips by -1.7%.

No change to the target price of $4.10 and Add rating. The company is viewed by Morgans as post peak leverage and capex, a positive.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $1.52
If AQZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARF as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Arena REIT posted solid 5.5% 1H25 growth in funds from operations (FFO) from a year ago and booked a 10% rise in total assets following several acquisitions.

The broker, however, expects the REIT's FFO growth rate to slow in coming years as previously high inflation moderates, the low weighted average cost of debt rises to more typical levels, and development yields stay weak.

The analyst cut FFO estimates for FY25 and FY26 by -1% and -2% respectively. Target price drops slightly to $4.30 from $4.35 but Accumulate retained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.47
If ARF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Citi found strong momentum in the first half results from Abacus Storage King. Both occupancy and rental rate growth were pleasing and the company has reaffirmed distribution guidance for FY25 of 6.2c per security.

The broker expects the stock will be supported by the results. Target is $1.40 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.24
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes the downtrend in costs for ASX in the 1H25 results, suggesting it is now possible for the exchange to lower FY25 cost guidance to growth between 6-9%.

The analyst believes this may signal the possibility of further downward cost growth, although uncertainty remains around the regulatory backdrop and the challenges in addressing the Chess system upgrades.

Notably, the core business is performing well, and Citi raises EPS forecasts by 2% for FY25 and 3% for FY26.

No change to the Neutral rating. Target price lifts to $68.50.

Target price is $68.50 Current Price is $66.35 Difference: $2.15
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.01, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses there are ongoing challenges around expenses for ASX and will not become more constructive on the stock as a result.

The company has maintained guidance in its first half results regarding operating and capital expenditures for FY25 with growth still forecast in the 6-9% range.

The broker awaits clarity on the medium-term outlook at the investor briefing scheduled for June.

The first half dividend represented an 85% payout ratio, in line with the target. Macquarie raises its price target to $66.50 from $66.00 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $66.50 Current Price is $66.35 Difference: $0.15
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.01, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

ASX's 1H underlying profit beat the consensus and Morgan Stanley forecasts by 3% and 5%, respectively, though reported profit
was broadly in line. The interim dividend came in 3.5% ahead of the consensus forecast.

The broker suggests the profit beat was of low quality, driven by the timing and nature of costs, with revenues softer, and sees better value elsewhere in the Financials sector.

FY25 cost guidance was maintained.

Underweight. The target rises to $56.15 from $55.05. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $56.15 Current Price is $66.35 Difference: minus $10.2 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $64.01, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes ASX delivered a higher-than-expected net profit after tax result for 1H25, beating expectations by 3%, with revenues broadly in line.

Higher bottom-line earnings were underpinned by lower opex and expenses than anticipated, while net interest income rose 9%, a solid result, the broker states.

Markets performance, including futures, OTC, and cash market trading, was strong but offset by sluggish listings compared to previous years and a flat result for secondary capital raisings.

Morgans considers ASX a quality company but remains cautious on large technology projects and the regulatory backdrop.

Target price rises to $67.20 from $66.35. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $67.20 Current Price is $66.35 Difference: $0.85
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.01, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BVS as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following 1H results, Shaw and Partners highlights Bravura Solutions has exceeded earnings expectations by more than 10% at the past four results, with multiple upgrades in between.

The target is raised to $2.90 from $1.70. Buy, High Risk maintained.

It's felt the current result and upgraded FY25 guidance represent a remarkable transformation. Both revenue and earnings (EBITDA) came in ahead of the broker's expectations and earnings guidance for FY25 was raised by 12%.

Management has outlined a capital return of $73.2m, a special dividend (relating to Fidelity license sale) of $40m and an interim dividend of $7.2m, whilst the buyback has been suspended.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.12
If BVS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi interprets the 1H25 CommBank result as broadly in line with expectations. 1H25 cash earnings exceeded expectations by 1.5%. Marginally better-than-forecast revenue was offset by higher costs from increased investment spending.

The analyst believes the key positive aspects of the results —stable asset quality and strong volume growth— could face greater challenges going forward, and further EPS upgrades are seen as unlikely.

Citi highlights revenue downgrade risks from funding pressure, increased competition for deposits, and slowing credit growth. Costs and investment spending are guided up by 10%.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -1% for FY25/FY26 on reduced core earnings forecasts. Sell rated on a challenging valuation, with a $90.75 target price, down from $91.50.

Target price is $90.75 Current Price is $166.72 Difference: minus $75.97 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.46, suggesting downside of -35.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

Post-1H25 earnings from Cochlear, UBS highlights that FY25 net profit after tax guidance could be a concern for investors or a possible "blip" in services revenue, which may improve again into FY26.

Sales revenue missed consensus by -3%, while underlying net profit after tax was near consensus, the analyst explains.

Management reaffirmed implant growth of 10%, though service sales are now expected to decline, compared to prior guidance of a slowdown.

UBS notes consensus is currently forecasting 5% growth in service sales for FY25. Net profit after tax guidance remains unchanged, but the company now points to the lower end of the range.

Sell rated with a $2.70 target price.

Target price is $270.00 Current Price is $304.54 Difference: minus $34.54 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $295.90, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Equal-weight (3) -

After a further look at Computershare's 1H results, Morgan Stanley raises its target to $36.60 from $31.10. The Equal-weight rating is maintained as the analysts see limited EPS growth into FY26. Industry view is In-Line.

A summary of research by the broker yesterday follows.

Computershare's 1H management EPS (MEPS) beat forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by 2% and 6%, respectively. Earnings were boosted a tax rate of circa 23.5% (broker had forecast 26.5%) on a changing mix post the US Mortgage Service sale.

Total revenue fell by -1%, with softer Issuer Services and Corporate Trust revenues partly offset by stronger Employee Share Plans revenues on strong transaction fees, explain the analysts.

New FY25 MEPS constant currency guidance of 135cps suggest to the broker management is now looking for 15% year-on-year growth, up from 7.5% earlier.

Target price is $36.60 Current Price is $42.57 Difference: minus $5.97 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.99, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT reported 1H25 earnings per unit broadly in line with UBS expectations.

The NTA valuation for the REIT advanced 10.6% over six months, with 99% of the portfolio revalued, the broker explains.

Management reaffirmed guidance for operating EPS of 25.4c and a distribution of 24.7c.

UBS believes the financial metrics were sound. Further asset divestments are expected to fund the remainder of the Hotel Property Investments ((HPI)) acquisition, with ownership now at 85.4%. Gearing stood at 38% for a 56.5% ownership level.

Neutral rated. Target price $3.79.

Target price is $3.79 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.51
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CXL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following the recent award of $15m in grant funding from the WA Government for the Mid-Stream Demonstration Plant Project, Calix and Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) have announced the recommencement of their joint venture.

As the joint venture represents a US$7bn per annum market opportunity, Shaw and Partners considers the announcement a positive catalyst for Calix.

No change to the Buy, High Risk rating or $1.70 target.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $1.11
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 188% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DHG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Domain Holdings Australia to $3.30 from $3.20 and upgrades to Buy from Hold after a 27% increase in  adjusted EPS in H1, beating market expectations. Management also slightly raised the outlook for FY25 listings.

Listings and controllable yield growth of 5% and 8%, respectively, generated a residential revenue increase of 12%, in line with the broker's forecast.

A flat 2 cent fully franked interim dividend was declared. While early days, Bell Potter suggests Domain may be at the start of a consensus earnings upgrade cycle.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.38
If DHG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises its target for Domain Holdings Australia to $3.25 from $3.20 and maintains a Neutral rating given uncertainty on strategic direction and heading into negative listings in Q4.

Yesterday's summary of Citi's research follows.

Domain Holdings Australia's 1H25 core profit of $37m beat Citi and consensus forecasts by 17% and 16%, respectively, due to cost control. Revenue fell -2% short of the consensus estimate.

In an early assessment, the broker highlights the profit result also benefited from a lower D&A expense as management changed the estimated life of software assets. Citi sees potential for high single-digit profit upgrades to the consensus forecast.

Management lowered its FY25 opex guidance to high single-digits from high single-digits to low double-digits, implying to Citi 12-14% year-on-year cost growth in H2.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.33
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

First half results beat Macquarie's expectations with Domain Holdings Australia reporting a 25% increase in net profit.

The company has appointed Greg Ellis as interim CEO yet Macquarie notes, while experienced, whether changes will occur is uncertain as he has only committed to the role for up to 12 months.

In terms of operations, the business is meeting expectations and to become more constructive the broker wants confirmation that the future CEO will create a more competitive business. Neutral. Target edges up to $3.00 from $2.85.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.08
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DHG as Underweight (5) -

Domain Holdings Australia's 1H result does not change Morgan Stanley's Underweight investment thesis, expecting ongoing leakage of both revenue and market share. Target $2.50. Industry view: Attractive.

First half revenue and earnings (EBITDA) were a respective -2% miss and a 5% beat against consensus forecasts, the latter aided by lower corporate overheads and a lower D&A charge, explain the analysts.

Management stated 1H new listings rose by 5% on the previous corresponding period and yield lifted by 7%, which Morgan Stanley compares to rises for REA Group ((REA)) in the same period of 5% and 14%, respectively.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI posted first half net profit that was ahead of Macquarie's estimates, largely because of interest and tax. Revenue missed forecasts because of weaker New Zealand and Victorian markets along with more selective bidding.

The broker observes good progress on the cost reductions and the EBITA FY25 margin target of more than 4.2% appears probable. News is still forthcoming on upcoming defence estate renewals. Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $5.73 from $5.85.

Target price is $5.73 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.38
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DXI as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes mixed signals in Dexus Industria REIT’s 1H results, with a 2.4% beat on funds from operations (FFO) but no change to guidance for FFO or distributions (DPU).

The broker points to a slower-than-expected lease-up across developments, which remains the primary capital allocation focus.

Management is also facing challenges in identifying development acquisitions which meet investment hurdles.

The Hold rating and $2.90 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.21
If DXI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVN as Buy (1) -

In a "very strong" result, according to Bell Potter, Evolution Mining's 1H financial metrics moderately beat expectations, and the 7 cent fully franked interim dividend rose by 250% on the previous corresponding period, doubling the broker's forecast.

Net debt fell by -$300m and gearing was reduced to 23% from 30% over 2024 after the payment of -$140m in dividends.

The analyst reiterates Evolution offers effectively unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions. Buy. Target raised to $7.00 from $6.65 and the broker's dividend forecasts are also lifted materially.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.75
If EVN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter lowers its target for Hold-rated GrainCorp to $7.45 from $9.25 after FY25 guidance at the AGM missed expectations. The lower target reflects lower earnings forecasts and peer group multiple compression.

The broker had previously been more optimistic on crush returns.

FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $270-320m compares to the broker's prior $334 forecast and the consensus range of between $280-363m. Management expects grain margins will be compressed by strong global supply and lower demand.

Management also announced a buyback of up to $50m.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $0.45
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.82, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

At its AGM, GrainCorp has provided EBITDA guidance for FY25 of $270-320m, with Macquarie's estimate now at $301m. The 2024/25 winter harvest volume was in line with expectations, although a margin increase was not forthcoming.

Elevated global grain supply has weighed on margins more than the broker expected. Beyond FY25, the 2025/26 season is firming and the winter harvest profile across the east coast appears much like 2024/25.

Macquarie reduces the target to $8.76 from $9.85, amid slightly lower through-the-cycle earnings estimates. Outperform.

Target price is $8.76 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $1.76
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.82, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp's FY25 EBITDA guidance of $270-$320m provided at the AGM was -12% below Ord Minnett's estimate at the midpoint, and net profit range was -37% below.

The broker notes the company has missed AGM guidance by a total of -$361.5m over the past four years, and has revised its estimates lower but only to the top end of the guidance.

The broker points to positives like strong East Coast crop volumes, strong crush volumes and a recent increase in grain pricing.

Target price cut to $9.5 from $9.8. Buy maintained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $2.5
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.82, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Neutral (3) -

On first glance, GQG Partners reported distributable earnings in 2H24 of $238m, exceeding UBS and consensus estimates by 6% and 4%, respectively. Upon exclusion of non-operating gains, the beat is lower.

Stronger management fees in 2H offset weaker performance fees due to lower performance. The analyst also notes lower staff compensation helped, with costs coming in 7% better than expected despite headcount growth.

The payout ratio was lifted to 50%-95%, though no reasons were provided. The broker suggests tax constraints via buybacks as a possible factor.

UBS anticipates the results will be well received. Neutral rating and $2.43 target price.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.06
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HDN as Hold (3) -

Following largely in-line 1H metrics for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, and unchanged FY25 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) and dividends, Bell Potter lowers its target to $1.35 from $1.40.

Profit on cost from the development pipeline is on its way, suggests the broker, but further away than first thought with the cost of debt increasing as prior hedges roll-off.

Among the broker's REIT coverage, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is considered a stable proposition with an attractive dividend yield. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.17
If HDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Neutral (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivered first half earnings that were in line with forecasts. Macquarie observes the operating metrics are strong and the company continues to recycle capital towards more defensive and higher growth assets.

Macquarie is attracted to the relative stability of the portfolio and the 3% FY24-27 growth profile as well as additional upside through development. A Neutral rating is retained on valuation. Target rises to $1.14 from $1.11.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Equal-weight (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's 1H funds from operations (FFO) of $90m missed the consensus forecast for $91m,  with net operating income (NOI) lower-than-expected by Morgan Stanley.

The broker notes yields on developments are tracking at a healthy 7%, the portfolio is more than 99% occupied, and the average rent uplift was 3.6%, yet the reaffirmed earnings guidance represents just 2.3% growth.

Management reiterated FY25 FFO/DPU guidance. Equal-weight. Target $1.34. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.16
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HDN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett describes HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's 1H25 result as positive with funds from operations, DPS and FY25 guidance all
in line with its forecasts.

The broker notes the REIT recycled $250m of assets following the reweighting of the portfolio mix, acquiring $200m of higher-yielding properties. While asset-by-asset metrics were not provided, the analyst estimates the transactions to be neutral-to-slightly accretive.

Target price rises to $1.30 from $1.27. Hold maintained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.12
If HDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Insurance Australia Group's 1H25 result was weak, with gross written premium down this half on 2H24 and lower than the previous corresponding period in NZ.

The insurance margin was better than expected due to a stronger underlying claims ratio, the analyst explains.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 1% in FY25 and 5% in FY26 while pointing to a potential peak in margins and increasing challenges for top-line growth.

Citi retains a Buy rating and considers the market's reaction to the result overdone. Target price $9.05, down from $9.85.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $1.25
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Insurance Australia Group has retained margin guidance for FY25 despite a strong improvement in the first half, which Macquarie suspects signals conservatism around the pricing outlook.

Gross written premium growth has been downgraded towards the lower end of the previous "mid-to-high single digit" range.

As the premium rate cycle continues to earn and there are benefits from higher interest rates, Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. Target edges down to $8.50 from $8.70.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $0.7
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Insurance Australia Group reported a "strong" 1H insurance margin of 19.4% and underlying margin of 15.1%, both ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations.

The analysts anticipate flat underlying margins in H2 and FY26, given falling investment yields, slower NZ momentum, and the need to protect market share.

The broker's forecast for FY25 cash EPS rises by 2% on the 1H beat and assumes 2H CAT costs are in line with budget, but FY26 and FY27 forecasts fall by -2% and -5%, respectively.

Unchanged Equal-weight rating. Target price falls to $8.05 from $8.35. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $0.25
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

Insurance Australia Group announced 1H25 net profit after tax, which came in 11% above consensus, according to Morgans, due to the natural perils allowance coming in -$215m below expectations.

The broker notes gross written premium rose 6%, against a consensus estimate of around 3% growth, while the interim dividend of 12c signified a 45% payout ratio and was below expectations.

Management pointed to a slowdown in premium rate increases and lowered gross written premium guidance to the lower end of the range.

Morgans lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 10% on lower hazard claims in 1H25 but reduces the FY26 EPS estimate by -1% due to more subdued top-line growth assumptions.

Target price slips to $8.02 from $8.65. No change to Hold rating, as the stock is believed to be trading around fair value.

Target price is $8.02 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $0.22
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Accumulate (2) -

Insurance Australia Group's 1H25 earnings was in line with Ord Minnett’s estimate but missed the interim dividend forecast. The guidance for full-year gross written premium growth also disappointed.

The broker compared the group's premium trend with Suncorp ((SUN)) and observed that because the insurer raised premiums at a faster rate than Suncorp earlier, a greater moderation in the downtrend phase makes sense.

The broker cut EPS estimates for FY25 and FY26 by -4% and -5% respectively. Target price drops to $9.15 from $9.65 but Accumulate retained.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $1.35
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

Citi updates earnings forecasts for Lifestyle Communities ahead of the 1H25 results on February 25 and highlights the company may announce softer-than-expected earnings in FY25 due to settlement issues from contract complaints.

The analyst lowers settlement forecasts in FY25-FY26 by -13% to -20% with price cuts and reduces earnings forecasts by -16% and -23%, respectively.

Speculation of a takeover in the media is contingent, Citi explains, on the buyer assuming the risks associated with the collectability of the capitalised deferred management fee on previous sales, which had a $246m book value at the end of FY24, or about 22% of market capitalisation.

Neutral rated with a $10 target price, up from $9.50.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.31 Difference: $0.69
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.08, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

In a first take, Citi highlights the operating earnings from Mirvac Group were ahead of estimates, although residential volumes were well below. FY25 guidance has been maintained.

The residential result was influenced by capital partnering and sales were positive, with 947 lots exchanged. The broker believes a stronger earnings outcome and positive sales in the second quarter should mean the stock performs well.

Questions are expected around the residential margin outlook as well as Harbourside and other developments. Neutral rating. Target is $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.2
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Buy (1) -

Mirvac Group reported 1H25 earnings that came in higher than UBS and consensus forecasts by 11% and 7%, respectively, on first inspection due to reduced interest charges.

The analyst estimates upfront profits in the Highforest and Mulgoa projects were around $45m, compared to the estimated $30m, although details were not disclosed.

There was no change to management's guidance. The broker suggests the market will focus on Mirvac's ability to generate FY25 residential settlements of 2k to 2.5k, with 1H25 at 685, which implies to UBS an increase in interest costs over 2H25.

Construction costs in Qld appear to remain challenging, based on the cost of Liv Anura. The Buy rating and $2.29 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.29 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.29
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MND as Hold (3) -

Morgans previews the upcoming 1H25 earnings for Monadelphous Group, which should offer few surprises as the company has pre-released net profit after tax at $33m-$36m.

The analyst believes the factors underpinning growth will attract the most market attention while also providing guidance for 2H25.

Morgans notes engineering and construction continues to account for most of the company's earnings, with the stock typically responding to contract awards in this segment. Feedback from the industry suggests to the analyst that few contract awards are forthcoming.

The analyst believes the market is likely to overestimate the margin expansion upside from the E&C business as work levels grow.

Target price rises to $14.80 from $14.28. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $15.39 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.28, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

Citi expects National Storage REIT will continue to enjoy momentum in the Australian self storage market, because this marketplace remains relatively less competitive compared with other global markets.

The broker highlights some investors have been worried about the potential for growth to contract, given consumer pressure at the top of the interest-rate cycle and the weakness in residential markets.

The REIT will report first half results on February 26. Buy rating with a $2.70 target price.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.48
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Citi views the 1H25 result from Northern Star Resources as in line with expectations.

The analyst highlights from the earnings call that management reconfirmed the 2moz target for FY26, the KCGM mill expansion remains on time and within budget, and FY25 earnings guidance was reiterated.

Constraints on Golden Pike are not considered an issue the market should worry about, the broker explains, as Northern Star has other "levers" in place to achieve the FY26 production guidance of around 650koz, although consensus and Citi's estimates are lower.

The De Grey Mining ((DEG)) acquisition is due to complete in May, while Citi expects mill shutdowns across all sites in 3Q25. Production in 2H25 is anticipated to be above 1H25.

Neutral rated. Target $17.90.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $18.33 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.52, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as No Rating (-1) -

Northern Star Resources posted first half earnings that were in line with Macquarie's estimates. Net profit missed slightly because of higher depreciation and finance charges. The interim dividend of $0.25 was better than expected.

Guidance for FY25 has been maintained and the broker continues to flag timing and cost control at the KCGM expansion as a key consideration.

Macquarie remains under research restriction and provides no target or rating.

Current Price is $18.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $18.52, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Northern Star Resources' 1H25 underlying EBITDA was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's estimate but underlying net profit was -6% below forecast on higher finance cost/tax.

The miner retained the FY25 guidance, with production weighted towards the 2H. The broker believes investors will remain focused on this 2H uplift as well as the potential completion of the De Grey Mining ((DEG)) acquisition expected in May.

Minor changes to earnings forecasts resulted in an unchanged target price of $16.8 and Hold rating.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $18.33 Difference: minus $1.53 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.52, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the risk/reward around Orora post-1H25 results is "balanced," considering the share price response and the overall quality of the cans business, which is viewed as reasonable but expected to be the main driver of earnings growth.

Management's guidance suggests to the broker that conditions have steadied, but scanner and National Alcohol Beverage Control Association (NABCA) data in the US indicate volumes are still falling, with ongoing risks around tariffs.

Citi lowers EPS estimates by -26.6% and -11.4% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Neutral rating. Target $2.40, down from $2.80.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.17
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Orora posted continuing EBIT in the first half that was below Macquarie's estimates.

The result was considered "messy" and complicated by the discontinued operations whilst Saverglass experienced the strongest order book in 18 months, although this needs to flow through to actual sales.

The weakness in Australian commercial wine continues to weigh on the business and offset better exports to China. Cans remain the bright spot, the broker adds.

Buybacks will recommence post the result. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.84.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.27
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley was disappointed by Orora's 1H result, noting earnings (EBITDA) fell -12% short of the consensus forecast, while 2H guidance points to a -10% miss against the broker's 2H forecast, or -6% for FY25.

While volume trends indicate some green shoots, the broker requires further evidence.

Regarding Saverglass, Morgan Stanley notes the pace of European demand recovery remains uncertain, though management flagged some recovery in order intake levels.

Target $2.70. Overweight. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.47
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORA as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights Orora's 1H25 earnings came in below expectations, with management also issuing softer FY25 guidance.

The company continues to be impacted by destocking in Saverglass and a challenging global macro environment.

Excluding the contribution from the Saverglass acquisition, earnings before interest and tax fell -30%, largely due to the shutdown of Gawler's number 3 furnace. Australian cans were highlighted as a positive.

Proceeds from the sale of Orora Packaging Solutions in North America have been used to pay down debt and initiate a $320m on-market share buyback.

The broker's earnings estimates are lowered by -12% to -14% on the weaker results and guidance.

Hold rating unchanged. Target price slips to $2.15 from $2.60. Morgans sees potential upside from possible takeover interest and downside if earnings do not recover.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Origin Energy is due to deliver 30 APLNG cargoes that were prepaid from 2018, translating to fewer cargoes sold into the spot market for half a decade.

The broker notes the market hasn't included this in earnings estimates, but at the Japan/Korea Marker forward curve, there is an estimated impact of around 16cps on the company's net present value.

Regarding dividends, Citi believes an under-geared balance sheet can accommodate the foregone cargoes and production decline.

Citi points to factors such as energy market earnings coming in at the upper end of guidance in FY25 and battery storage systems coming on stream in 2H26.

On suggestion made is investors should consider a "progressive" dividend policy as the way to think about the stock.

The broker raises FY25 EPS by 32% to reflect the accounting treatment of APLNG and lowers FY26 EPS by -13% on margin assumptions on Octopus.

No change to $11.50 target price or Buy rating.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.14 Difference: $1.36
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy delivered EBITDA in the first half that was slightly below Macquarie's estimates, dragged down by Octopus Energy. Guidance has been reiterated.

The main positive was the increase in the dividend to $0.30 with the broker expecting this to be sustained and indicative of confidence in the outlook.

The broker retains a Neutral rating, noting the positive aspects are countered by the rebasing of APLNG production and the steady outlook for energy markets. Target is lifted to $9.94 from $9.83.

Target price is $9.94 Current Price is $10.14 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Origin Energy's 1H25 earnings met market expectations and interim dividend was comfortably above, but FY26 guidance disappointed.

This was due to an earnings downgrade of its Octopus business that supplies and sells the Kraken customer service platform.

Following the result, the broker raised the FY25 EPS forecast by 8% but lowered FY26 estimate by -13%. Target price trimmed to $11.0 from $11.1.

Buy maintained with the broker reiterating Origin is a solid, well-run operation and there's value in the stock, especially given the recent share price fall.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.14 Difference: $0.86
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PME as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Despite first half misses for revenue and earnings against consensus expectations, Bell Potter raises its target for Pro Medicus to $330 from $260 and upgrades to Buy from Hold.

The broker prefers to focus on the ten contract wins in the last 12 months and upgrades its FY25 and FY26 revenue forecasts by 4% and 2%, respectively.

The analysts highlight demand for Visage is increasing despite price rises and an influx of approvals of AI tools in the radiology space, which have little/no reimbursement.

The recent Australian dollar slide is expected to add around $6m to FY25 revenues, and Bell Potter expects more contract wins shortly, based on the strong pipeline.

Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $279.08 Difference: $50.92
If PME meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $242.25, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PME as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights Pro Medicus reported robust revenue growth of 31%, while earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) advanced by 45%, coming in below consensus by -2%.

Net profit after tax was 3% better than forecast due to increased interest income from a cash balance of $181m. EBIT margins lifted 691bps on the previous corresponding period to 72%, the broker details.

Notably, the company signed its first cardiology customer, with a total addressable market around 20% of radiology, the analyst states. Citi's US market share estimate increased to 9% from 7% in August.

Citi lifts EPS forecasts by 4% in FY25/FY26 and anticipates a compound average EPS growth rate of around 31% per annum from FY24 to FY30, noting that the stock's valuation implies higher growth.

Sell rated with a $165 target price, up from $150.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $279.08 Difference: minus $114.08 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $242.25, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PME as Neutral (3) -

First half revenue from Pro Medicus was largely in line with estimates. Macquarie notes the pipeline is strong and further upside from AI is anticipated. EBIT margins increased to 71.9% and further margin expansion is expected.

US revenue in the second half is expected to be supported by the completion of two major implementations. Macquarie adjusts FY26 market share estimates to 10% to capture earlier contract gains while long-term assumptions remain intact at 15% for FY30.

Expectations are captured in the share price and the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised 43% to $258.50.

Target price is $258.50 Current Price is $279.08 Difference: minus $20.58 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $242.25, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PME as Overweight (1) -

While 1H revenue for Pro Medicus was a slight miss against Morgan Stanley's forecast, margins beat expectations and the outlook is primed for an acceleration, in the analysts' view.

New implementations drove 600bps of underlying earnings (EBIT) margin expansion to 72%, highlights the broker, and US market share is now around 9%, up from 7% in the previous corresponding period.

Cardiology will be installed at its first site in April, and Morgan Stanley highlights cardiology product charges could exceed 2x per unit compared to radiology due to higher value, despite lower volume.

Overweight. Target $310. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $279.08 Difference: $30.92
If PME meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $242.25, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Hold (3) -

Pro Medicus announced net profit after tax growth of 42.7%, in line with Morgans' forecast and slightly above consensus. Revenue was a slight miss, while earnings before interest and tax margin grew to 72% from 66%, exceeding consensus at 71%.

The broker describes the company as a "freight train" in terms of contract wins, which have amounted to almost $500m in the last seven months—more than the last three years combined.

Morgans' EPS forecasts remain above consensus for the next three years but the broker highlights that cycling a compound average revenue growth rate of 33% per annum over the last three years will be more challenging on higher numbers.

Target price is raised to $250 from $225. No change to Hold rating. The broker considers the company one of the highest quality on the ASX, but also believes valuation remains an issue.

Target price is $250.00 Current Price is $279.08 Difference: minus $29.08 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $242.25, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi assesses a solid performance, though cost pressures remain, in South32's 1H25 results. Earnings (EBITDA) of US$375m were in line with consensus but beat the broker's forecast of US$322m.

FY25 production guidance was largely unchanged, but unit cost guidance was raised.

Group net debt decreased by -US$715m to US$47m due to the sale of metallurgical coal, offset by Hermosa capex, including a $267m build in working capital.

Positively, the broker notes cash generation rose with an unwinding of working capital and reduced open positions on increased production. The buyback was extended, with news on exiting Cerro Matoso.

The broker upgrades the stock to Buy from Neutral, lifting the target price to $4 from $3.90, highlighting investors should focus on FY27 and increased production, with Citi forecasting an FY27 copper price of US$4.76/lb.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.43
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 posted first half results that were in line with expectations although Macquarie found the operating cash flow weak.

The broker's interest was captured by the value on offer via structural simplification of the Indian Ocean aluminium and Americas base metals businesses, which share little in the way of synergies.

The main issue is what the company will do with the proceeds from the divestment of Cerro Matoso and what simplification steps come next, the broker posits.

The Outperform rating and $4.40 target are maintained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.83
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$1.02bn beat Morgan Stanley's forecast by 1.2% but missed the consensus estimate by the same margin. The US3.4 cent dividend exceeded the connsensus forecast by 11%.

A softer-than-expected free cash flow (FCF) outcome was driven by a bigger working capital build, observes Morgan Stanley.

FY25 guidance for Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique was lowered by -10kt to 350kt driven by disruptions, notes the broker.

Overweight rating. Target $3.90. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.33
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

South32 reported slightly better-than-expected 1H25 earnings, with net profit after tax 3% above expectations, according to Morgans.

The company announced plans to sell Cerro Matoso, its nickel operations in Colombia, while expressing interest in adding more zinc and copper, the broker explains.

Cost guidance for FY25 rose for Worsley and Cannington, while capex guidance fell due to reduced spending on Hermosa. The broker notes lower-quality bauxite caused the surprise lift in unit costs for Worsley, which is expected to continue into 2H25.

No change to Add rating and $4.30 target price.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.73
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 reported 1H25 earnings broadly in line with UBS' expectations, with FY25 guidance unchanged.

The broker sees a more challenging outlook for commodities due to trade war risks, a strong USD, and weak China data post Chinese New Year.

Notably, South32 has a robust balance sheet and continues to transform its portfolio well, the analyst believes.

UBS notes some changes to production guidance due to civil disruption, with slightly higher costs at Worsley and Cannington. The sale of Cerro Matoso has also commenced.

The Buy rating and $4 target price are maintained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.43
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIG as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights the completed combination of Chemist Warehouse and Sigma Healthcare, with shares in the combined group commencing trading yesterday at a market cap of $31.8bn, up from $4.5bn for Sigma alone.

Chemist Warehouse shareholders own around 49% of Sigma Healthcare, with shares in escrow until August, when 10% can be released, while the remaining 90% will remain in escrow until August 2026.

The company will be reweighted into the S&P/ASX200 and 300 indices, and at the March rebalance, the analyst expects it to move into the S&P/ASX100 and possibly the S&P/ASX50, subject to vacancies, which could drive an additional $280m of demand from index funds.

Further ahead, Sigma Healthcare may become eligible for global indices such as MSCI and FTSE.

Add rated, with a higher target price of $3 from $2.98. Share price volatility is expected over the next few weeks.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.09
If SIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TPW as Hold (3) -

The first half earnings (EBITDA) margin for Temple & Webster of 4.2% came in above the top end of 1-3% FY25 margin guidance and was a material beat against forecasts by Bell Potter and consensus.

Bell Potter notes increased brand marketing investment has driven category market share to 2.9%, while stronger unit economics have supported delivered margins, as management expands the exclusives channel (45% of sales).

The broker highlights softer trading growth of 16% in the first six weeks of the second half.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target rises to $15.60 from $12.20 on Bell Potter's higher earnings forecasts and higher assumed valuation multiple.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $16.14 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.80, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPW as Outperform (1) -

Temple & Webster delivered an acceleration in sales into the end of 2024 with strong revenue growth of 24% in the first half.

Macquarie expects a record number of "active" customers and ongoing market share gains will support growth in the second half.

Margin guidance has been reiterated and the company is expected to gain significant market share, with AI driving both operating leverage and improved sales conversion.

The broker raises the target to $17.90 from $13.55 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $16.14 Difference: $1.76
If TPW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.80, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

The key highlight for Morgan Stanley from Temple & Webster's 1H result was the 4.2% earnings (EBITDA) margin, in another step towards long-term margins of 15%, suggest the analysts.

Earnings (EBITDA) beat the consensus estimate by 47% on higher margins, explains the broker. Sales growth accelerated to 24% year-on-year in H1 versus 21% at October 2024.

To attain management's $1bn sales target, from FY24 a 19-26% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is required to get there by FY27/28, observes Morgan Stanley.

Target rises to $18.50 from $13.15. Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $16.14 Difference: $2.36
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.80, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

First half results from Treasury Wine Estates were ahead of expectations. The main disappointment for Macquarie was the underperformance of premium brands and the re-introduction of commercial brands.

The long-term trajectory for Penfolds remains intact and the broker welcomed the reiteration of three-year EBITS guidance.

Macquarie remains positive on the long-term outlook for the stock and retains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $11.70 from $12.60 as longer term growth estimates are tempered.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $1.19
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.03, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Following Treasury Wine Estates' interim results, Morgan Stanley observes management remains confident around the long-term opportunity in China and other global markets, as reflected by reiteration of multi-year guidance.

Restructuring of Treasury Premium Brands (TPB) is expected to be completed in H2 of FY25, which is expected to help stabilise profitability, observes the broker.

Overweight rating. Target price $14.60. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $4.09
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.03, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Add (1) -

Cycling a weak period a year earlier, Morgans notes Treasury Wine Estates reported a robust 1H25 result, boosted by China Penfolds sales and Treasury Americas due to the Daou acquisition, the analyst explains.

Management confirmed Penfolds is in 10k outlets in China and is targeting 25k outlets in the future. Daou Discovery has become the number one luxury Cabernet in the US market, the analyst states.

The sale of commercial brands has been pulled following unattractive offers, which the analyst thinks is not unexpected given the pressure on that segment of the wine market.

The broker lowers earnings forecasts by -1.9% for FY25, post-management guiding down earnings before interest and tax by -1.9% at the midpoint, while estimates remain unchanged for FY26/FY27.

Target price falls to $13.43 from $14.80. No change to Add rating.

Target price is $13.43 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $2.92
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.03, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes that Viva Energy had heavy expenditure and disappointing cash flow in the second half of 2024 and suspects the dividend could be small. The company reports its 2024 results on February 25.

Fuel margins have weakened in the fourth quarter and rising oil prices may have been a challenge. Earnings estimates are largely unchanged while the target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.60. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.97
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources