Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

For base metals, the broker continues to favour aluminium over copper.

The analyst for 29Metals upgrades the rating to Equal-weight from Underweight after an around -50% share price fall since last December. A $1.30 target price is set (down from $1.50). Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.19
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

The company has reported a significant increase in both Resources and Reserves at its acquired asset Eloise (November 2021) and Shaw and Partners points out this is the result of six months of drilling only.

It is the broker's view AIC Mines offers investors one of few ways to invest in a "simple leveraged exposure" to the copper thematic on the ASX.

New estimates had been released for other asset Jericho in February. The broker has made multiple adjustments to its modeling. Buy rating and 70c price target retained. Estimates have been raised.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.28
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AKE as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

In the lithium sub sector, the broker upgrades its rating for Allkem to Overweight from Underweight on valuation. The operating assets and growth pipeline are considered high quality.

A $13.30 target price is set. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $12.03 Difference: $1.27
If AKE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.25, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AKE as Add (1) -

In the wake of Albemarle's rejected takeover bid for Liontown Resources ((LTR)), Morgans sees potential for Allkem to also become a takeover target as it is trading on a much cheaper multiple.

The broker's number one pick as a target is Pilbara Minerals, as the majority of Allkem’s resource is in Argentina in lithium brines, which are used for carbonate rather than hydroxide. It’s thought this may deter potential acquirers with pre-existing South American brine exposure.

The broker’s Add rating is maintained, while the target slips to $15.10 from $15.20.

While the broker sees value in the Lithium sector, it cautions shorter-term traders that lithium price weakness continues, particularly in Chinese carbonate prices.

Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $12.03 Difference: $3.07
If AKE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.25, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating for Alumina Ltd, and notes that due to its low position on the cost curve there is limited financial risk, as the company remains profitable through the economic cycle.

A $1.70 target is set. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.235
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

BHP Group has a 33.75% stake in the Antamina copper mine in Peru and the operator, Antamina, has announced it will spend -US$2bn to extend the useful life of the mine to 2036.

This announcement comes as no great revelation to Morgan Stanley, as it has already allowed for production extension and related capex in its financial modeling.

The Equal-weight rating and $41.35 target are unchanged. Sector view is Attractive.

Target price is $41.35 Current Price is $46.08 Difference: minus $4.73 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.33, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Paine Schwartz Partners has increased its stake in Costa Group to 14.84%, from a previous 13.78%. The additional 1.1% stake, says Macquarie, comes through an increase in the notional number of shares subject to the swap between Paine Schwartz Partners and Citi that completed in March, and brings the former's total consideration to $174m. 

The broker expects this move is likely to put a $2.60 per share floor under the stock price. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.82 are retained. 

Target price is $2.82 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.3
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -

Carnaby Resources has reported drill results from its Greater Duchess copper-gold project, and the deposit continues to grow. Latest results double the grade, equating to a 100% increase in deposit size says Macquarie.

The broker points out the deepest hole drilled at the project are now -210-270m below previous depths, but the 40,000m drilling program continues.

A maiden resource estimate is expected before the end of June, which Macquarie anticipates could exceed 300,000 tonnes of copper.

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.70 are retained. 

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.485
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CNU as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

A rising share price has triggered a downgrade from Ord Minnett (Morningstar) to Lighten from Hold.

The broker's price target ("fair value") remains unchanged at $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If CNU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

For Deterra Royalties, the broker maintains its Equal-weight rating and sets a $4.95 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.15
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.02, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the fundamentals for gold remain strong, as rates could peak and moderate US dollar strength, while inflation remains high.

Evolution Mining remains the broker's top pick.

The Overweight rating is retained and a $3.60 target is set. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.57
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

For Fortescue Metals, the broker retains an Underweight rating partly in anticipation of a drop in free cash flow yield due to heavy investments in growth and decarbonisation initiatives. 

A $14.10 target is set. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $21.61 Difference: minus $7.51 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.32, suggesting downside of -27.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HCW as No Rating (-1) -

HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT has announced a $320m equity raise to fund the purchase of a $0.7bn interest in a Healthscope portfolio. A total $1.2bn portfolio will be acquired in conjunction with an unlisted HMC Capital ((HMC)) hospital and life sciences fund. 

Macquarie expects the purchase to prove 7% accretive to fourth quarter funds from operations per share, and see gearing increase to 36% from 24%. 

Macquarie is under research restrictions and unable to provide a rating or target price. 

Current Price is $1.43. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 40.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HCW as Equal-weight (3) -

HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT has agreed to purchase -$256m of hospitals on balance sheet, as well as -$474m of assets in an unlisted fund, which it will own 100% of initially.

Morgan Stanley finds the deal attractive as it makes the REIT more relevant due to a doubling of assets. The broker increases its pro forma FY24 EPS forecast by 7%.

To fund the purchases, the REIT will raise $320m in equity, draw down $143m of debt and sell -$125m of assets. Around $200m of borrowings will also be made in the unlisted fund.

Morgan Stanley leaves its $1.70 target and Equal-weight rating unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.273
If HCW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 40.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HMC as No Rating (-1) -

HMC Capital has announced entities under its management will acquire a $1.2bn Healthscope portfolio. The acquisition is made via HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW)) and a new unlisted fund, with the former additionally announcing a $320m equity raise. 

HMC Capital has itself launched a $125m institutional placement to fund its commitments, says Macquarie. The announcement has seen HMC Capital bring forward its $10bn funds under management target to late December, around twelve months ahead of prior expectations. 

Macquarie is under research restrictions and unable to provide a rating or target price. 

Current Price is $3.67. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

According to Morgan Stanley, HMC Capital is on-track to reach $10bn of assets under management (AUM) by December 2023.

This comes as HMC Capital's listed fund HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW)), and a soon-to-be established unlisted healthcare fund, have contracted to acquire -$730m of hospitals tenanted by Healthscope.

This transaction will generate around $7m in fees (paid in scrip) for HMC Capital.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained and the broker's target price falls to $4.35 from $5.60 due to a range of factors including dilution from the $125m equity raise. Also, the analyst allows for heightened cap rate expansion risks. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.68
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

HMC Capital has executed a $1.2bn deal that will see it acquire eleven private hospitals, currently leased to Healthscope, with the assets to be acquired by HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW)) and an unlisted fund. 

UBS points out the deal provides a platform for the company to grow in the healthcare space, and has left the company confident in reaching assets under management of $10bn by end of year, but notes the capital heavy deal leaves HMC Capital needing $125-155m in new equity. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $4.76 are retained. 

Target price is $4.76 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $1.09
If HMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

In the Lithium sub sector, the broker maintains its Underweight rating for IGO as the share price is seen as more than factoring in the positives from the company's attractive mix of clean energy metals from low cost assets.

A $10.20 target price is set. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: minus $2.39 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.40, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

For Iluka Resources, the broker maintains its Equal-weight rating and sets a $10.35 target price. There's considered to be some risk around the Australian project pipeline development strategy. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $10.35 Current Price is $10.53 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.31, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MCR as Hold (3) -

Mincor Resources has withdrawn full year guidance, having delivered ore to BHP Group ((BHP)) that failed to meet minium specifications. The ore Mincor Resources provides to BHP Group, says Bell Potter, is required to meet a minimum nickel-to-arsenic ratio, and, despite having been accepted by BHP Group, a portion of delivered ore has not met this ratio. 

It is Bell Potter's opinion that the withdrawal of guidance has left investors unable to ascertain the real impact on production or the duration of the issue. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.40 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If MCR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MCR as Neutral (3) -

Mincor Resources has withdrawn full year guidance due to the impact of off-specification product to BHP Group ((BHP)). Mincor Resources blends ore from its Cassini and Northern Operations mines, and has in the last six months delivered product with high arsenic content. 

Macquarie notes Mincor Resources had recently approached BHP Group in a bid to revise offtake agreements to allow for product specification variations, a proposal that was rejected by BHP Group. 

The impact of this event on the offer recently made by Wyloo Metals to acquire all Mincor Resources share at $1.40 per share remains unclear. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $1.50 are retained. 

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.085
If MCR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MCR as Buy (1) -

Buy rating retained but the price target sinks to $1.80 from $2.14 as Mincor Resources has withdrawn production guidance for FY23. The company is expected to release its official response to suitor Wyloo's takeover offer on April 4.

Despite multiple headwinds and setbacks plaguing the company, Shaw and Partners remains of the conviction Wyloo's offer materially undervalues Mincor.

The company's outlook is uncertain because it doesn't yet know future off-specification product will be accepted by the Kambalda Nickel
Concentrator ((BHP)). Plus the ramp up at Cassini will be slower.

Shaw also highlights the out-of-the money hedge book is expected to close in 1H24. Forecasts have received a serious haircut.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.385
If MCR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

For Mineral Resources, the broker retains its Equal-weight rating and sets a $77 target price. It's felt most positives are already priced-in to the share price and lithium prices represent downside risk. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $77.00 Current Price is $79.93 Difference: minus $2.93 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $100.00, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

In the wake of Albemarle's rejected takeover bid for Liontown Resources ((LTR)), Morgans sees potential for both Pilbara Minerals and Allkem to also become takeover targets.

While Mineral Resources is less likely to receive a takeover offer given its existing relationships with Albemarle and Jiangxi, it remains the broker's key diversified pick.

The Add rating is maintained, while the target rises to $107 from $102 after Morgans raises its iron ore price forecasts.

While the broker sees value in the Lithium sector, it cautions shorter-term traders that lithium price weakness continues, particularly in Chinese carbonate prices.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $79.93 Difference: $27.07
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $100.00, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the fundamentals for gold remain strong, as rates could peak and moderate US dollar strength, while inflation remains high.

The rating for Newcrest Mining is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight as the broker sees limited upside to its $26.90 target price. While potential remains for the company to be acquired there's considered to be limited upside. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $26.57 Difference: $0.33
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.15, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the fundamentals for gold remain strong, as rates could peak and moderate US dollar strength, while inflation remains high.

The broker increases its rating for Northern Star Resources to Overweight from Equal-weight due to a cheap valuation and the leverage to higher gold prices thanks to the company's fixed cost base. The target is set at $12.85

Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $12.03 Difference: $0.82
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

For OZ Minerals, the Equal-weight rating is unchanged and a $26.50 target price is set. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $28.10 Difference: minus $1.6 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.71, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

In the wake of Albemarle's rejected takeover bid for Liontown Resources ((LTR)), Morgans sees potential for Pilbara Minerals to also become a takeover target due to its exposure to high quality hard rock.

Pilbara Minerals remains one of the few independent lithium producers with a globally significant resource, points out the analyst, allowing an acquirer immediate exposure to spodumene and hydroxide.

While the broker sees value in the Lithium sector, it cautions shorter-term traders that lithium price weakness continues, particularly in Chinese carbonate prices.

The $5.30 target and Add rating are retained and the stock becomes the broker’s key pick of the pure plays in the sector.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $1.31
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 41.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

The broker retains its Overweight rating for Rio Tinto given a robust balance sheet and flexibility to pursue growth and/or increase shareholder returns. A $126.50 target is set.

Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $126.50 Current Price is $117.25 Difference: $9.25
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $112.36, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Regis Resources’ McPhillamys project in NSW has been given the green light by the state government. Federal approval awaits, but Citi anticipates the government will also be supportive.

The broker has modelled in prior capex guidance for the project, and its base case net asset valuation assumes a -30% discount for McPhillamys to reflect opex, funding and execution risk.

As Regis trades at a premium to Citi's valuation, Sell retained. Target unchanged at $1.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: minus $0.295 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources' McPhillamys gold project has the green light to proceed, having received final approval from the New South Wales Independent Planning Commission. Macquarie points out a finalised feasibility study is now expected late in the calendar year.

Ahead of the study, the broker is anticipating pre-production capital expenditure of -$500m. It expects first gold will be delivered late in 2025, and that the project can support a 9 year mine life with an average annual production of 191,000 ounces at an all in sustaining cost of $1,600 an ounce. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $3.10 are retained. 

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $1.105
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the fundamentals for gold remain strong, as rates could peak and moderate US dollar strength, while inflation remains high.

The broker upgrades its rating for Regis Resources to Equal-weight from Underweight. There's considered to be equal upside/downside risk driven by approvals at McPhillamys.

A $2.00 target price is set. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.005
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

For base metals, the broker continues to favour aluminium over copper, and regards South32 as a key pick for exposure to aluminium.

The Overweight rating is maintained and a $4.90 target is set. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.32 Difference: $0.58
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

For base metals, the broker continues to favour aluminium over copper. Sandfire Resources (copper exposure) is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight as it is trading near the analyst's target, which is set at $5.65. Industry view: Attractive

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $6.28 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SQ2 as Buy (1) -

Block has provided data to refute short-seller Hindenburg's accusations regarding fraudulent activity. Citi believes the disclosures set the record straight that the degree of fraudulent activity on the platform is not as widespread as the short-seller report suggested, at least as of now.

The broker understands that Block’s Identity Verification system has improved greatly in recent years, as well as an additional upgrade in recent months. 

Buy and US$90 target retained.

Current Price is $98.82. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $149.00, suggesting upside of 44.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SQ2 as Equal-weight (3) -

Block has provided an additional update to refute accusations made by short seller Hindenburg Research. Morgan Stanley is of the view this latest response should "modestly reassure investors".

The one negative the broker highlights is it is still possible there has been illicit activity through the Cash App platform (not addressed to date).

Plus the company's info compliance costs have grown twice as fast as profits since 2019 also opens up more questions about guidance and EBITDA outlook.

Price target US$70, the Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Current Price is $98.82. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $149.00, suggesting upside of 44.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Syrah Resources has delivered its full year result for 2022, reported a -US$26.8m loss over the year. This result was within -2% of Macquarie's estimate, with net revenue a slight beat but more than offset by higher operating costs. 

The company also provided its annual resource and reserve update for Balama, with overall reserves up 7% to 110.3m tonnes and overall resources down -18% to 1,036m tonnes. 

Macquarie found healthy reserve growth a positive, and supportive of a more than 50 year mine life at Balama. The Outperform rating and target price of $2.30 are retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.615
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

The broker retains its Equal-weight rating and for Syrah Resources and sets a $1.80 target. There's considered to be a lack of clarity on price realisation, production and operating costs.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.115
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TOY as Buy (1) -

It is Shaw and Partners' view that Toys 'R' Us ANZ's interim result, released two days ago, was heavily impacted by the necessity to make large investments in the UK and in Australia in order to secure future growth and profitability.

The broker highlights the "massive transformation" that is taking place for the company in Australia. The new management team is achieving early successes, according to the implicit message that keeps the broker hopeful of a re-rating.

From here onwards, starting with H2, the broker expects to see financial metrics improving. Forecasts have been kept "conservative", with small amendments made (they look over-sized on small numbers).

Adjustments made in the modeling (higher risk free rate of 3.5%) have led to a reduction in price target; to 10c from 12c. Buy/High Risk.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.083
If TOY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 488% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under its coverage within the Australian Materials sector.

The broker retains its Overweight rating for Whitehaven Coal and considers the stock remains significantly cheap, with the price supported by a healthy dividend yield and a buyback.

A $9.75 target price is set.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $3.08
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.97, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Sell (5) -

Zip Co has signed agreements to divest its Central and Eastern European business Twisto, and South African business Payflex, which alongside the ongoing wind down of Middle Eastern operations should add around $20m to the company's liquidity, says UBS.

The broker notes these moves have  been well flagged by Zip Co, and are in line with its simplification strategy and a refocus on its core Australia and New Zealand and North American businesses. UBS continues to see uncertainty in the company's near-term outlook.  

The Sell rating and target price of $0.45 are retained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 46.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources