Australian Broker Call
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January 10, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BHP - | BHP | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Deutsche Bank |
| EVN - | EVOLUTION MINING | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Deutsche Bank |
| NCM - | NEWCREST MINING | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank |
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -
A general sector update on mining stocks has triggered a downgrade for BHP to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank. The price target has fallen to $29.60 from $36 with the analysts pointing out margins have peaked for the Big Australian and earnings forecasts are now rolling over; a first in three years.
Underlying the broker's thesis is a tipping point for the Chinese property sector into the negative. This leads to the expectation of commodity markets likely to move into a trough in Q1, hitting prices for iron ore and crude oil, among others.
On revised forecasts steel consumption in China is projected to decline from 7% growth in 2018 to only 1% in 2019. The key property sector is expected to experience a decline from 10% growth to nil growth. Short term forecasts for most base metals have been scaled back.
Target price is $29.60 Current Price is $32.98 Difference: minus $3.38 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.97, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 248.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 252.6, implying annual growth of -4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $9.34
Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -
The company is scheduled to report H1 financials on February 12th. Ord Minnett, looking ahead, has also conducted a marking-to-market exercise, which includes a reduction for funds under management forecasts for the funds management business.
The result is a slight cut to the price target; to $7.80 from $8. Lighten rating maintained with the analysts explicitly stating the "capital position has been under pressure given book growth and the recent fall in risk assets and equity markets".
In addition, the broker expects product margin trends to remain weak. Estimates have been lowered, in particular for FY19.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: minus $1.54 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.46, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.9, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.6, implying annual growth of 16.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.45
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.30 cents and EPS of 41.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of -25.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.50 cents and EPS of 50.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $196.47
Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -
Following on from the release of the latest industry statistics in the USA, Credit Suisse analysts point out US IG volume growth appears to be running ahead still of the upper level that most plasma participants have indicated as reflecting underlying demand.
The underlying suggestion here is the industry as a whole is experiencing strong underlying demand. No changes made. Target price remains $230. Outperform.
Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $196.47 Difference: $33.53
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 254.74 cents and EPS of 559.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 595.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 269.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 303.83 cents and EPS of 662.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 678.3, implying annual growth of 13.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.51
Macquarie rates DCN as Outperform (1) -
Following positive announcements in December, Dacian Gold has now declared commercial production at Mt Morgans, and Macquarie finds early production indications are above expectation.
The analysts see further progress being made and have incorporated the lower end of production guidance in their modeling.
Outperform. Target $3. Both unchanged. Miniscule adjustments have been made to forecasts.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.49
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 42.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.78
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 52.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of -66.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 51.80 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.82
Deutsche Bank rates EVN as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -
A general sector update on mining stocks has seemingly led to a downgrade for Evolution Mining to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
The price target for the gold miner improved to $3.30.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting downside of -18.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of -13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 40.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.15
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.24 cents and EPS of 50.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.5, implying annual growth of -17.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.54 cents and EPS of 54.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.9, implying annual growth of 6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.42
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of -55.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.70 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.68
Credit Suisse rates HLS as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse is playing catchup with the offer to the company's shareholders by Chinese suitor/shareholder Jangho. The analysts believe major risk stems from what FIRB may decide.
It is the analysts' view this deal in particular carries an increased level of data sensitivity, a sensitive matter that would need to be addressed by both companies involved and the regulator.
Apart from corporate activity, the analysts continue to see downside risks to short term financial performance. Underperform. Target $2.45.
Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.53 cents and EPS of 15.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.53 cents and EPS of 17.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HUB HUB24 LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $12.81
Macquarie rates HUB as Initiation of coverage with Underperform (5) -
Macquarie agrees with the broad trend that sees Specialty Platform Providers taking material market share from banks and other incumbents in Australia. But there is also a big 'however", with the analysts predicting fee margin pressure is just around the corner for the new kids on the block.
It is the broker's view fee margin pressure is set to intensify on the back of limited differentiation and substitute offerings. As such, Macquarie initiates coverage of Hub42 with an Underperform rating and maiden $10 price target.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $12.81 Difference: minus $2.81 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.88, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 26.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 55.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 67.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 31.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 51.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $39.00
Macquarie rates KLA as Outperform (1) -
The market update has been received positively with Macquarie analysts suggesting their positive thesis is being supported. Forecasts have been lifted.
Dual listed Kirkland Gold remains a Top Pick at Macquarie with a price target of C$45 ($46 for the ASX-listed shares; up from $41). Outperform.
Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $39.00 Difference: $7
If KLA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.07 cents and EPS of 183.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.75 cents and EPS of 217.22 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.65
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of -38.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.2, implying annual growth of 55.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.28
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -43.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $23.81
Deutsche Bank rates NCM as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
A general sector update on mining stocks has seemingly led to a downgrade for Newcrest Mining to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
Target price improved to $24 from $23.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.81 Difference: $0.19
If NCM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.46, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.7, implying annual growth of 26.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NGI NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $2.77
Macquarie rates NGI as Outperform (1) -
The market update showed just how difficult navigating global turmoil has been for Navigator, suggest the analysts. Funds inflows disappointed and negative investment returns added to the disappointing performance.
Macquarie highlights the negative impact on H2 will be "material" because of the drop in performance fees. The analysts don't think it feasible extra synergies from the MAS integration might compensate for this.
Earnings estimates have received a serious haircut (double digit percentage reductions for three years). Outperform rating retained as the share price already has de-rated. Target price drops to $3.36 from $5.82.
Target price is $3.36 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.59
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.05 cents and EPS of 21.19 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.98 cents and EPS of 20.65 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.75
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of -1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NWL NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.55
Macquarie rates NWL as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -
Macquarie agrees with the broad trend that sees Specialty Platform Providers taking material market share from banks and other incumbents in Australia. But there is also a big 'however", with the analysts predicting fee margin pressure is just around the corner for the new kids on the block.
It is the broker's view fee margin pressure is set to intensify on the back of limited differentiation and substitute offerings. As such, Macquarie initiates coverage of Netwealth with a Neutral rating and $7.75 price target.
Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.55 Difference: $0.2
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.87, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 77.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 26.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $0.71
Credit Suisse rates PLS as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse keeps Pilbara Minerals as its Top Pick in the lithium sector, with the analysts nominating asset, quality, growth outlook, risk profile and valuation as key factors underpinning their view.
Target price remains $1.15, alongside an Outperform rating. The latest market update is seen as yet another positive, further underpinning the already positive view.
Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.44
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 51.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of 117.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $4.67
Credit Suisse rates PTM as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse had already lowered forecasts two days ago, but following the company's trading update, and further analysis, yet more reductions have ensued.
Underperform rating retained. Target price loses an extra 20c to $4.50. Within the context as is, the analysts believe Platinum shares look overvalued.
Moreover, highlight the analysts, Platinum's weak fund performance is likely to hamper funds flows and this further represents downside risk to their already below consensus forecasts.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.07, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of -12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.43
Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -
Marking to market the model, Macquarie analysts report the net impact for the December quarter was likely a slight positive.
In addition, the shares are seen trading at a -19% discount to "weighted international peers".
Outperform rating retained. Target price rises by 80c to $12.80.
Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $10.43 Difference: $2.37
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.25, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 40.90 cents and EPS of 76.96 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 58.46 cents and EPS of 87.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.1, implying annual growth of 11.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.80 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 1033.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of -6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.62
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of -17.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.60 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.7, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.54
Macquarie rates TAH as Outperform (1) -
The company is scheduled to releases 1H19 financial results on 13 February 2019. Looking ahead, Macquarie analysts are forecasting $588m EBITDA, implying 13% yoy pro-forma growth including $22m in synergies.
On Macquarie's assessment, the lotteries operations had their best run in jackpot activity since 2000 with prize pools +23% in FY19 YTD.
Outperform rating retained. Target decreases to $5.30 from $5.35. Macquarie is forecasting 10% two year EPS CAGR, with upside risk.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.76
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 942.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $14.25
Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -
Citi analysts highlight this morning major competitor Constellation Brands disappointed with its market update in the US overnight. It appears the read-through for Treasury Wine is "mixed".
The analysts point out while Constellation is losing market share in the US, it is worth noting US wine industry demand trends have also slowed in the past six months.
Target price of $14.50 and Sell rating retained as Citi continues to see a slow down in sales for Treasury Wine post FY19, despite ongoing strong momentum in China.
Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.25 Difference: $0.25
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 63.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.2, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 70.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of 18.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.63
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.85 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -43.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| AQG | ALACER GOLD | Deutsche Bank | 4.20 | 4.10 | 2.44% |
| ARF | ARENA REIT | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 2.55 | -100.00% |
| BHP | BHP | Deutsche Bank | 29.60 | 36.00 | -17.78% |
| CGF | CHALLENGER | Ord Minnett | 7.80 | 8.00 | -2.50% |
| CHC | CHARTER HALL | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 7.60 | -100.00% |
| CLQ | CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS | Deutsche Bank | 1.00 | 1.30 | -23.08% |
| DXS | DEXUS PROPERTY | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 11.50 | -100.00% |
| EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | Deutsche Bank | 3.30 | 2.90 | 13.79% |
| FMG | FORTESCUE | Deutsche Bank | 3.30 | 3.70 | -10.81% |
| GMG | GOODMAN GRP | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 11.00 | -100.00% |
| GPT | GPT | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 5.55 | -100.00% |
| IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Deutsche Bank | 5.00 | 5.40 | -7.41% |
| KLA | KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD | Macquarie | 46.00 | 41.00 | 12.20% |
| LLC | LENDLEASE | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 17.95 | -100.00% |
| MGR | MIRVAC | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 2.55 | -100.00% |
| NCM | NEWCREST MINING | Deutsche Bank | 24.00 | 23.00 | 4.35% |
| NGI | NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS | Macquarie | 3.36 | 5.82 | -42.27% |
| NSR | NATIONAL STORAGE | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 1.85 | -100.00% |
| NST | NORTHERN STAR | Deutsche Bank | 7.25 | 6.50 | 11.54% |
| OGC | OCEANAGOLD | Deutsche Bank | 4.50 | 4.30 | 4.65% |
| OZL | OZ MINERALS | Deutsche Bank | 10.00 | 10.50 | -4.76% |
| PTM | PLATINUM | Credit Suisse | 4.50 | 4.70 | -4.26% |
| QBE | QBE INSURANCE | Macquarie | 12.80 | 12.00 | 6.67% |
| RIO | RIO TINTO | Deutsche Bank | 80.00 | 84.00 | -4.76% |
| RRL | REGIS RESOURCES | Deutsche Bank | 4.30 | 4.00 | 7.50% |
| S32 | SOUTH32 | Deutsche Bank | 4.20 | 4.40 | -4.55% |
| SBM | ST BARBARA | Deutsche Bank | 4.50 | 4.20 | 7.14% |
| SCG | SCENTRE GROUP | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 4.30 | -100.00% |
| SFR | SANDFIRE | Deutsche Bank | 7.25 | 8.50 | -14.71% |
| SGP | STOCKLAND | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 4.15 | -100.00% |
| TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Macquarie | 5.30 | 5.35 | -0.93% |
| VCX | VICINITY CENTRES | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 2.85 | -100.00% |
| WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Deutsche Bank | 5.50 | 6.20 | -11.29% |
| WSA | WESTERN AREAS | Deutsche Bank | 3.10 | 3.80 | -18.42% |
Summaries
| ARF | ARENA REIT | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.44 |
| BHP | BHP | Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $32.98 |
| CGF | CHALLENGER | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.34 |
| CHC | CHARTER HALL | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.45 |
| CSL | CSL | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $196.47 |
| DCN | DACIAN GOLD | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.51 |
| DXS | DEXUS PROPERTY | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $10.78 |
| EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.82 |
| GMG | GOODMAN GRP | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.15 |
| GPT | GPT | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.42 |
| HLS | HEALIUS | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.68 |
| HUB | HUB24 | Initiation of coverage with Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.81 |
| KLA | KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $39.00 |
| LLC | LENDLEASE | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.65 |
| MGR | MIRVAC | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.28 |
| NCM | NEWCREST MINING | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $23.81 |
| NGI | NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.77 |
| NSR | NATIONAL STORAGE | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.75 |
| NWL | NETWEALTH GROUP | Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.55 |
| PLS | PILBARA MINERALS | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.71 |
| PTM | PLATINUM | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.67 |
| QBE | QBE INSURANCE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.43 |
| SCG | SCENTRE GROUP | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.06 |
| SGP | STOCKLAND | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.62 |
| TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.54 |
| TWE | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $14.25 |
| VCX | VICINITY CENTRES | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.63 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 7 |
| 3. Hold | 2 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 6 |
Thursday 10 January 2019
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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