Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 3PL as Equal-weight (3) -

3P Learning beat Morgan Stanley's EBITDA estimates in the first half. The broker takes on board the message that product has been built and expenses, particularly R&D, have peaked.

This should provide an acceleration of sales growth, although the broker suspects there will be another 12 months before there is meaningful evidence of this.

Equal-weight. Target is lowered to $0.90 from $1.05. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.15
If 3PL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

ARB Corp's 1H25 net profit after tax came in 2% above Citi's estimate but -4% below consensus, with slowing sales growth in 2Q25 against 1Q25 in Australia at first glance.

The analyst highlights export growth increased to 20.4% over 1Q25 at 10.4%, with sales to US customers up 19%. In contrast, the Australian aftermarket fell -1.7% in 2Q25 following 5.5% growth in 1Q25, impacted by softer new car sales.

ARB Corp's Australian order book fell during 1H25 due to shorter lead times for new vehicles, the broker explains, but remains "healthy" relative to the historical average, Citi states.

Post-earnings call, the broker views the domestic aftermarket as cyclical, and the analyst has more conviction around the US strategy, with aluminium and steel tariffs still uncertain and too early to estimate impacts.

Citi reiterates a Buy rating. Target price rises to $51.20 from $49.22.

Target price is $51.20 Current Price is $39.88 Difference: $11.32
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARB as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Following a "solid" result in tough operating conditions, Macquarie raises its target for ARB Corp by 4% to $45.40 and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral.

The highlight, according to the analyst, was the Export segment with 1H sales growth of 15% year-on-year (US:Ex-US was 19%:14%), while Australian Aftermarket outperformed a soft market for new vehicle volumes.

Gross margins rose by 150bps year-on-year to a record 59.3% due to price rises and lower freight costs, explains the broker, and management expects a steady 2H gross margin percentage.

Target price is $45.40 Current Price is $39.88 Difference: $5.52
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARB as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, first half results from ARB Corp were slightly below Morgan Stanley's expectations. Stronger exports offset some second quarter deceleration in Australia while a stronger gross profit was offset by reinvestment.

Target $46. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $39.88 Difference: $6.12
If ARB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARB as Hold (3) -

ARB Corp posted a first half result that was softer than expected. Morgans continues to assess the business as high-quality, noting the expansion opportunity in the US.

The company has invested ahead of growth including personnel, product range and improving market positioning.

While retaining an optimistic view on the near-term trajectory, the current valuation is considered full and the broker retains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $35.76 from $37.75.

Target price is $35.76 Current Price is $39.88 Difference: minus $4.12 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes ARB Corp reported a largely flat result in 1H25, with lower-than-expected growth in its Australian Aftermarket business, offset by a much-improved export result.

Among the positives was the recent ORW/4WP acquisition which was profitable in January, ahead of the broker's expectation, and its strong net cash position of $22.8m.

The broker notes the company has invested heavily in its business in 1H25, setting itself up for future growth.

FY25-26 earnings forecasts lowered by -2% and -5% respectively. Buy maintained. Target price drops to $45 from $47.15.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $39.88 Difference: $5.12
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARB as Sell (5) -

Given 1H year-on-year double-digit falls in new vehicle volumes of utes/4x4s, UBS points out ARB Corp's Australian Aftermarket segment could have fared worse than 1.8% revenue growth for the period.

However, the January trading update implies the sales run-rate has declined further for this segment, highlights the analyst.

Export, and specifically the US, was the highlight of the 1H result for the broker, and momentum has been sustained in January.

The gross margin again surprised to the upside, observes UBS, and management is confident in 2H sustainability.

Sell rated. The broker's target eases to $34.00 from $34.50, partly due to higher forecasts for opex, depreciation and net interest expense which sees net EPS downgrades for FY25 and FY26 of -7% and -6%, respectively.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $39.88 Difference: minus $5.88 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings (EBITDA) for Aurizon Holdings of $814m missed Macquarie and consensus forecasts for $841m and $837m, respectively. 

Bulk/Freight missed expectations for the fifth half in a row, highlights the analyst, noting this division, while not material, is meant to be the growth driver as both the Network and Coal businesses are mature.

Management reiterated FY25 earnings guidance of between $1,660-1,740m, qualified to the lower end.

The target price is reduced to $3.41 from $3.52. The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.41 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.22
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Citi is becoming increasingly cautious on Bapcor's result following 4Q24 earnings from US Genuine Parts Company (GPC).

Those results , the broker believes, suggest Burson and Autobarn may be ceding market share to Repco, as the latter revealed increased growth in Australasian automotive.

GPC pointed to increased market share despite a tough operating environment.

Citi notes Bapcor’s last update at the October AGM was below expectations, and the CFO also resigned in a surprise move.

Bapcor reports on February 26.

Target price is $5.17 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $0.46
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

Morgan Stanley notes George Saoud has resigned as Chief Financial Officer and Bapcor will now commence a recruitment process, signalling this was unexpected. The broker expects an orderly transition given a 12-month notice.

Morgan Stanley is currently under research restriction for Bapcor and no target or rating are supplied. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $4.71. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -

The analysts at Citi are incrementally more confident in the turnaround at Baby Bunting following today's release of formal 1H results containing additional details to the pre-reported version in mid-January.

The broker notes reiterated guidance implies a 2H skew, and highlights a slight acceleration in like-for-like sales, coming in at 2.8% for the first seven weeks of the 2H.

Based on current momentum, Citi feels management is on track to hit the top end or exceed FY25 guidance, highlighting some of the strategies such as store upgrades and new smaller formats have yet to impact.

No interim dividend was declared.

Buy. Target moves to $2.42 from $2.01.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.6
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BBN as Neutral (3) -

While trading for Baby Bunting improved in the 1H, with total sales growth of 2.4% versus the previous corresponding period, Macquarie notes a slowing of momentum.

The gross margin percentage improved significantly year-on-year, rising by 260bps to 39.8%, but near-term headwinds loom, suggest the analyst.

The broker's target rises to $1.85 from $1.65, and a Neutral rating is kept given the company's customers remain impacted by higher cost-of-living pressures, and the analyst sees risk to management's 40% gross margin target in FY25.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.03
If BBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BBN as Overweight (1) -

Baby Bunting provided first half earnings in January and there were few surprises in the official results. Morgan Stanley observes, in the second half, year-to-date comparables have turned positive, up 2.8% for the first seven weeks.

The company has reiterated guidance for a 40% gross margin and -$10-30m in capital expenditure with pro forma net profit of $9.5-12.5m.

The broker believes if the company can demonstrate a path to $50m in EBITDA --and there is scope for it to trade on 10x EBITDA-- the stock has potential to double.

Target rises to $2.20 from $2.00. Overweight. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.38
If BBN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBN as Hold (3) -

Baby Bunting's first half net profit rose 37% amid improvements in sales and gross margin. The company has reiterated FY25 guidance for like-for-like growth of up to 3% and gross margins of 40%. The result was in line with the previous release in January, Morgans notes.

No interim dividend was provided as the funds are to be used to pursue growth initiatives. The broker increases capital expenditure estimates for FY25 in line with guidance and increases FY26 by $20m, given the indications from the refurbishment program.

Hold retained. Target is raised $1.90 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.08
If BBN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Baby Bunting is advancing its turnaround story, with the 1H25 result showing an improved gross profit margin, and continuing sales momentum into 2H.

The company reaffirmed its FY25 net profit guidance of $9.5-12.5m which compares with the broker's $11.8m estimate. Following the result, the analyst has upgraded FY25-26 earnings forecasts by 6% and 3% respectively.

Target price of $2.15 and Accumulate rating are maintained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.33
If BBN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised its gold price forecasts higher, increasing the year-end target by US$200 to US$3,100/oz and long-term by US$250 to US$2,200/oz, keeping the broker well above consensus.

The updated view comes as expectations for US rate cuts are pushed out and is driven by continued: 1) official sector buying, 2) safe haven buying, 3) lack of positioning and 4) ongoing liquidity issues.

Bellevue Gold's target rises to $1.90 from $1.60, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.695
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 40.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Following immaterial changes to BHP Group forecasts following 1H results, Macquarie maintains its $42 target and Outperform rating.

The analyst observes a focus on net debt, highlighting the trade-off between balance sheet and growth.

The broker's first impressions yesterday were summarised as follows.

At first glance, BHP Group's first half results were in line and the dividend exceeded Macquarie's estimates. Cost and production guidance are unchanged and the cash flow appeared "solid".

The weather impacts on Western Australian iron ore are now leading guidance, the broker adds.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $40.97 Difference: $1.03
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

BHP Group delivered underlying net profit in the first half that was ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates.

The broker points out the company has acknowledged product grade performance has been subpar, as volatility has been driven by ramping up of projects but this should improve and become more stable once the transition is complete.

Vicuna updates are expected during the current half-year including timelines for the release of technical studies.

Overweight rating. Target $48.50. The industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $40.97 Difference: $7.53
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

First half results from BHP Group were largely in line with expectations. Morgans has some concerns regarding the company's ability to pursue US$20-30bn in new copper growth projects globally.

The main issue is whether such growth can be supported as well as an above-market dividend yield, along with potential acquisitions, such as Anglo American.

The broker considers it a "better than average probability" a fresh approach will be made for Anglo American.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $48.10 from $49.70.

Target price is $48.10 Current Price is $40.97 Difference: $7.13
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

BHP Group's 1H25 earnings were ahead of market expectations but the interim dividend represented the lowest payout ratio in more than 10 years, Ord Minnett highlights. 

Along with the net debt position, the broker notes this raises questions about shareholder returns given guidance for medium-term capex of US$11bn.

Commentary after the result, however, made clear the company was happy with its balance sheet position, suggesting to Ord Minnett 
growth expenditure will figure more prominently in management’s mind than returns for the time being.

As a result, the analyst has cut DPS forecasts for FY26 by -7%, though its FY25 estimate rises 5%. Accumulate rating and $43 target price are maintained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $40.97 Difference: $2.03
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BIO as Buy (1) -

Biome Australia announced revenue growth of 47.3% in the 1H25 report alongside a profit of $0.4m, compared to a loss of around -$1.5m in the previous corresponding period, Bell Potter highlights.

Gross margins also improved by approximately 60bps, with timing issues on opex and Canadian hires somewhat impacting the results, the analyst explains.

Bell Potter makes no changes to earnings forecasts and retains a Buy rating and 85c target price.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.235
If BIO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRI as Buy (1) -

Big River Industries delivered a solid 1H25 result given the tough operating environment, with revenue and EBITDA beating Ord Minnett's forecasts by 4% and 9% respectively.

The broker highlights both revenue and profit showed sequential improvements, providing early signs a trough in the cycle may have been reached.

The broker increased FY25-27 EBITDA estimates by an average of  2.9%. Buy rating maintained. Target price lifts to $1.76 from $1.73.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.495
If BRI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Accumulate (2) -

BlueScope Steel's 1HFY25 earnings release was above market expectations, as the Australian steel products division outperformed on volume surge in its higher-margin Colorbond product, offsetting volume decline in the US.

The company flagged planned cost savings of -$200m a year and a target of an additional $500m in annual earnings from growth initiatives by FY30.

The broker notes this implies EBIT of $1.7–2.4bn, significantly above prior long-term market estimates of $1.4bn.

The broker raised FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by 4% and 10% respectively. Target price lifts to $27.5 from $24.0, and Accumulate retained.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $25.25 Difference: $2.25
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.44, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter views Challenger's 1H25 earnings report as a "good set" of results, highlighting cost controls and a cost/income ratio of 32%, down from 34.6% a year earlier and 39.5% in 2H22, reflecting a downward trend.

Return on cash operating earnings rose 1.2% to 11.6%, above management's target of 11.2%, while retail life annuity sales reached a record $583m, up from $469m in the previous corresponding period.

Challenger is expected to benefit from the growth in longer dated and higher margin annuities.

The share price fall of -9% is viewed as incongruent with the underlying performance of the business, given the good outlook statement.

Bell Potter lowers EPS estimates by -4.8% for FY25 and -2.2% for FY26. Target price slips -5.5% to $7.80.

Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $2.22
If CGF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Citi updates the outlook for Challenger and, while acknowledging the share price response to the weak 1H25 result, the analyst believes there are reasons for an improvement in the cash operating earnings (CoE) margin as maturities recede.

The stock is viewed as inexpensive and producing the target RoE while trading around book value. The broker's EPS forecasts are lowered by -4% for FY25/FY26. Buy rated with a lower target price of $6.70 from $7.80, a discount of -10% to the valuation.

At first glance, Citi notes Challenger reported soft Life results as the margin declined for cash operating earnings.

The 1H25 results were below the broker's and consensus estimates, with Life underperforming and Funds Management slightly above expectations due to higher performance fees and reduced costs.

A 14.5c fully franked dividend was higher than anticipated at 14c, with a payout ratio of 44.2%.

Citi expects the market will be disappointed with the result, particularly the decline in the margin in Life, with a longer-duration sale strategy targeted to improve the margin. The broker also highlights the negative investment market adjustment as much above forecasts.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $1.12
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

Challenger's lower 1H cash operating earnings (COE) margin offset funds under management (FUM) growth, observes Macquarie, while Japanese sales were "very strong".

FY25 guidance was unchanged across the board.

Management noted "significant progress to re-platform the core customer registry and technology for the annuity business and is on track to launch ALIP (Accenture Life Insurance and Annuity Platform) by the end of FY25".

Outperform retained. Target falls to $6.60 from $7.10.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $1.02
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes Challenger is under pressure in terms of both margins and volumes, with the dividend also expected to come under pressure given the wide gap between reported and normalised earnings.

Life COE margins missed forecasts in the first half while strong cost management protected the net profit outcome, the broker notes.

Funds management was better than expected, supported by favourable investment markets. The broker retains an Equal-weight rating, reducing the target to $5.95 from $6.60. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.37
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Add (1) -

Challenger's first half net profit was a little below consensus, Morgans notes.

Positives, such as ROE above target and a solid performance on costs, appeared to be outweighed by negatives such as a contraction in the life net book and a sequential decline in the life COE margin.

The broker lowers FY25-26 EPS estimates by -2-6% but believes the share price reaction to the areas of weakness was somewhat severe. Target is reduced to $6.93 from $7.90. Add maintained.

Target price is $6.93 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $1.35
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger reported 1H25 normalised net profit, which came in below expectations by -1% for UBS and -2% below consensus, with life earnings softer than anticipated, offset by more robust funds under management on increased performance fees, the broker explains.

UBS highlights cash operating earnings margins were "soft," with pressure on product cash margins, down -8bps on the previous half due to one-off factors, which the analyst suggests may be temporary.

Challenger reported robust life annuity sales, including stronger longer-duration Japanese annuity sales.

UBS slightly downgrades net profit after tax forecasts by -2.6% for FY25 and lifts FY26 by 4.3%. The broker tweaks EPS estimates, lifting FY25 by 4% and FY26 by 1% due to earnings changes on convertible notes net of dilution.

Target price $7.65.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $2.07
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Corporate Travel Management reported better-than-expected 1H25 earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA) against consensus expectations due to higher sales and better margins, Citi explains.

A&NZ performed well, exceeding estimates by 19%, while the US was 10% above expectations.

Management quantified the expected "drag" from European government contracts at -24%, which the broker states implies FY25 guidance of $197m versus $201m, offset by the rest of the world.

Citi views the indications for FY26 as slightly higher than expected. On balance, a "strong" result with good trends in A&NZ. Buy rated. Target $13.90.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $15.00 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting downside of -14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DEG as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised its gold price forecasts higher, increasing the year-end target by US$200 to US$3,100/oz and long-term by US$250 to US$2,200/oz, keeping the broker well above consensus.

The updated view comes as expectations for US rate cuts are pushed out and is driven by continued: 1) official sector buying, 2) safe haven buying, 3) lack of positioning and 4) ongoing liquidity issues.

De Grey Mining's target rises to $2.90 from $2.20, Buy retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.88
If DEG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DGT as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, UBS notes little new information in Digico Infrastructure REIT's 1H25 earnings report, except for the LAX1 update indicating planning approval is due in 2Q25, with a final investment decision in 3Q25.

The SYD1 update revealed ongoing discussions with hyperscaler and enterprise customers following the ownership change, the broker states.

Management noted FY25 earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA) will increase upon the completion of CH1, with certification for SYD1 targeted for mid-2025. Gearing stands at 35%, the low end of the target range.

Buy rated. Target $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.68
If DGT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the 1H25 result from Deterra Royalties was slightly below expectations on a per-share basis.

The fully franked dividend of 9c at a 74.5% payout ratio represented a decline of -40% year-on-year, the broker explains, due to softer iron ore prices and the Trident acquisition.

Due to higher one-off costs in 1H25, the analyst lowers the FY25 EPS forecast by -7% and lifts FY26 by 9% on revised assumptions for costs and depreciation/amortisation charges.

Target price rises to $4.50 from $4.40, with a Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.36
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights a stable outcome, with management reiterating FY25 guidance for adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) despite divestments and positioning the platform for a turn in the cycle, following Dexus' 1H25 results.

AFFO for 1H25 was -13.9% below the previous corresponding period, largely due to higher interest rates, lower trading profits, and the ongoing impact of higher incentives flowing through the portfolio, the analysts explain.

Pro forma gearing of 31.3% is at the lower end of the 30-40% target range, Citi observes, but higher funding costs are expected to impact in FY26.

The broker believes robust institutional relationships across various fund management platforms offer growth potential. In the near term, Citi envisages higher financing costs and redemptions are pressuring earnings, but a strong balance sheet places Dexus in a sound position.

Neutral rating. Target price lifts to $7.80.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $0.04
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

First half adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) for Dexus aligned with the consensus forecast, and FY25 AFFO guidance of between 44.5-45.5cpu was reaffirmed, with Macquarie forecasting 45cpu.

After increasing forecasts for management earnings and trading profits, and lowering estimates for corporate costs, Macquarie raises its target by 4% to $8.08.

The analyst highlights Dexus is trading at a -12% discount to December 2024 net tangible assets (NTA), which is thought to be overly pessimistic. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $8.08 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $0.32
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley found Dexus' first half results in line with expectations. FY25 guidance has been re-iterated with distributions of around $0.37.

The main surprise for the broker was what has been secured for FY26; $20m in performance fees, $35m in trading profits. Only $30m had been factored into estimates.

Underweight rating. Target is steady at $7.30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS has revised its gold price forecasts higher, increasing the year-end target by US$200 to US$3,100/oz and long-term by US$250 to US$2,200/oz, keeping the broker well above consensus.

The updated view comes as expectations for US rate cuts are pushed out and is driven by continued: 1) official sector buying, 2) safe haven buying, 3) lack of positioning and 4) ongoing liquidity issues.

Evolution Mining's target rises to $6.50 from $5.45, upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $0.34
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Citi notes Fletcher Building reported a 1H25 earnings miss by -5%, but management's guidance infers a higher earnings outlook by 4% against expectations.

The broker notes consensus is currently second-half skewed for earnings, although guidance suggests a 40%/60% split, driven by a NZ$180m cost-out, seasonal factors for residential, and a NZ$20m ship outage, the analyst explains, all of which were disclosed.

Citi views the result as "vanilla," and, on balance, investors will be happy after a period of many disappointments.

The Buy rating and NZ$3.30 target price are maintained.

Current Price is $2.83. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting downside of -17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has revised its gold price forecasts higher, increasing the year-end target by US$200 to US$3,100/oz and long-term by US$250 to US$2,200/oz, keeping the broker well above consensus.

The updated view comes as expectations for US rate cuts are pushed out and is driven by continued: 1) official sector buying, 2) safe haven buying, 3) lack of positioning and 4) ongoing liquidity issues.

Genesis Minerals generated $60m of cash and equivalents in the Dec Q even as it invests to grow production toward its targeted 325kozpa by FY29, UBS notes.

On the higher gold price and including more potential for production growth, UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $3.90 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.71
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

On the back of an announced $4bn equity raising, Citi expects some near-term share price pressure but views the reinvestment in growth from data centres as a medium-term positive for Goodman Group.

The placement price is $33.50, a -6.9% discount to the last closing price.

Regarding 1H25 results, the broker notes operating profit rose 1% year-on-year, while gearing increased to 16.8% from 8.4% in June 2024.

Management has retained operating EPS growth guidance at 9%, including the equity issue; otherwise, it would have been guided higher to 10%, the analyst explains.

Work in progress stands at $13bn across 68 projects, with a 6.7% forecast yield, and data centres represent 46% of work in progress, Citi states.

Following a conference call, Citi notes the key message from management is the company's very strong position, having become an infrastructure provider through both logistics facilities and data centers in key markets around the world.

Escalating demand for data centers has created a step-change in the growth for the business, notes management, and the capital raise will provide flexibility predominantly for development in data center activity to drive long-term sustainable growth.

Buy rated. Target $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $4.02
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.89, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

In an early assessment of today's 1H results by Goodman Group, Macquarie notes operating earnings per security (OEPS) of 63.8cps beat the consensus forecast for 55.4cps.

FY25 OEPS guidance was unchanged at 9% year-on-year, but would have been 10%, observes the broker, if not for a fully underwritten pro-rate placement to raise $4bn at $33.50.

Proceeds will be used for development working capital needs to commence new powered shell and fully fitted projects expected to be active by June 2026, notes the analyst. Data centres now comprise circa 46% of work in progress, up from 42% at 1Q FY25.

Target $36.47. Neutral.

Target price is $36.47 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $0.49
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.89, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised its gold price forecasts higher, increasing the year-end target by US$200 to US$3,100/oz and long-term by US$250 to US$2,200/oz, keeping the broker well above consensus.

The updated view comes as expectations for US rate cuts are pushed out and is driven by continued: 1) official sector buying, 2) safe haven buying, 3) lack of positioning and 4) ongoing liquidity issues.

Gold Road Resources' target rises to $3.05 from $2.60, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.48
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has become slightly more positive on HMC Capital since the first half results, partially driven by the conviction on near-term inflows and the progress on new funds in real estate.

Both new and existing institutional partners could provide $2-4 bn in capital over the next 12 months across new property, energy transition and digital funds.

The broker retains an Equal-weight rating, $11.96 target and the industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $11.96 Current Price is $10.88 Difference: $1.08
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.04, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HMC as Buy (1) -

UBS notes HMC Capital reported 1H25 results in line with expectations, with operating EPS of 51.9c meeting the broker's forecast but coming in above consensus at 39.5c per share.

While the market reacted positively, UBS still sees a favourable risk/reward profile for HMC Capital, citing a proven track record in investment and capital management, as well as the broadening of the platform with specialist additions to the group.

The broker believes the risks are "manageable."

Target price rises to $12.40 from $10.85.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $10.88 Difference: $1.52
If HMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.04, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24 achieved large migrations of $9.5bn and custody funds under administration of $99bn in the 1H25 earnings report.

Bell Potter highlights the results as better than expected, with the composition benefiting from Tech solutions, while the Platform performed in line with expectations.

Revenue advanced 29%, and underlying earnings rose 41% due to cost controls and operating leverage, the analyst explains.

Management's outlook commentary was viewed as positive, with an ongoing robust pipeline of business and higher-than-forecast net flow of funds into January and February.

Bell Potter lifts EPS forecasts by 1% for FY25 for mark-to-market adjustments. The broker reiterates a Buy rating with a higher target price of $93, up from $79.20.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: $8.61
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Post-earnings call with Hub24 management, Citi notes around 40% of funds under administration growth comes from flows, with management yet to address capex budgets for FY26. The goal is to grow margins.

The broker views the increase in hiring as a reason for less margin expansion in FY26 than in FY25, barring ongoing growth at existing levels of funds under administration.

****

At first glance, Citi notes stronger-than-expected revenue combined with cost control, driving a 6% earnings (EBITDA) beat compared to the broker's forecast, but in line with consensus.

More negatively, capex of -$13.8m exceeded the analysts' -$10m forecast due to higher office equipment capex, with Platform capex of -$6m in line with Citi's forecast.

Management upgraded funds under administration (FUA) guidance to $123-135bn, which at the mid-point is in line with the broker's $128.9bn estimate, but below the $130bn estimated by consensus.

Target $74.50. Neutral.

Target price is $74.50 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: minus $9.89 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Following Hub24's 1H result, Macquarie raises its target to $89.30 from $62.10 to capture the operating leverage inherent in the broker's medium-term EPS forecasts. The target also benefited from a change in valuation methodology.

Underlying profit and EPS were in line with consensus forecasts, while record platform net inflows drove an around 8% upgrade to the FY26 funds under administration (FUA) target, explains the analyst.

This higher FY26 target reflects net inflows and market movements during H1 and initial 2H growth, observes the broker, along with a pipeline of opportunities across all customer segments.

Target price is $89.30 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: $4.91
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

Hub24's first half result was generally ahead of expectations, at first glance.

Morgan Stanley observes the trading update is a sign the third quarter is tracking ahead of expectations and the FY26 platform FUA target has been upgraded.

Overweight rating. Target price $79. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: minus $5.39 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Hold (3) -

Hub24 delivered a strong first half result that slightly exceeded expectations with Morgans noting the FY26 FUA target has been increased to $123-135bn, highlighting the ongoing momentum in the business.

The broker assesses the product offerings continue to lead the market and there is long-term upside for the stock, although a market-led pull-back is required to provide another entry point. Hold maintained. Target rises to $80.16 from $69.55.

Target price is $80.16 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: minus $4.23 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnet lifts Hub24's target price to $84 from $73 but downgrades the rating to Hold from Buy on recent share price strength.

The company's 1H25 EBITDA was 6% ahead of consensus on, with strong flow and funds under administration (FUA) growth complemented by operating margin expansion across both divisions.

Among the highlights was an upgrade to FY26 FUA target to $123-135bn vs the broker's $128bn estimate.

The broker highlights headcount growth is likely to re-emerge in 2H, driving the cost run-rate up marginally. 

The broker reiterates it remains a very strong supporter of the Hub24 business. 

Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Following 1H results, UBS raises its target for Hub24 to $86 from $75.50 (incorporating EPS revisions and valuation assumption changes), and retains a Neutral rating given high valuation multiples.

The broker highlights further scale and margin expansion in Platforms, widening jaws in its Tech Solutions business, and strong momentum for both funds under administration (FUA) growth and net flows, persisting into the 2H.

Management has increased by 8% its FY26 FUA target to between $123-135bn, which compares to the broker's $135bn forecast.

Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: $1.61
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUM as Buy (1) -

Humm Group's net interest margins in 1H25 of 5.5% was broadly in-line with Ord Minnett's estimate, with higher gross yield of 12.0% offset by slightly higher interest expenses.

Despite the tougher macro-economic backdrop, net credit losses were 1.8% on a rolling 12 month basis, vs 1.7% 12 mths prior, the broker highlights.

The broker expects the company to be in no hurry to shift receivables off its balance sheet until the end of FY25 at the earliest, helping to provide a buffer to its 2H forecasts.

Target price of 90c unchanged and rating remains at Buy.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.24
If HUM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HUM as Buy (1) -

Humm Group's 1H cash profit of $29.8m missed Shaw and Partners' $33.2m forecast, but the broker keeps a $1.00 target as the current multiple can still be regarded as conservative relative to peers. The Buy rating is also maintained.

The analyst attributes the miss to opex one-offs (redundancies) and large Canada credit losses (since tightened), suggesting Shaw's 2H estimate remains fair.

Flexicommercial, which accounts for nearly 70% of the group's cash operating profit pre-tax, demonstrated resilience in a tough operating environment, in the broker's view.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.34
If HUM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IFM as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Infomedia reported 1H25 revenue that met its expectations but came in below consensus. Earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation were ahead of expectation but -3% below consensus, the broker details.

Management reiterated FY25 revenue guidance with stable margins, which the analyst interprets as implying a slightly stronger 2H25 despite the loss from a SimplePart customer.

Target price slips -2% to $1.75. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.265
If IFM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following in-line first half revenue for Infomedia, and management's reiteration of FY25 revenue guidance, Shaw and Partners maintains its $2.10 target and Buy, High Risk rating. 

The analysts believe management is executing well and maintaining margins (despite lower revenue growth so far in FY25), which should boost investors' assessment of operating leverage potential.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.615
If IFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFM as Buy (1) -

Infomedia reported 1H25 results in line with expectations, according to UBS at first take, with APAC growing well, "marginal" growth in EMEA, and America down -4% for earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation.

Net profit after tax adjusted came in -8% lower than expected due to higher depreciation, amortisation charges, and tax.

Management retained FY25 guidance, and the broker explains this is a transition year for the company. The earnings mix was weaker than expected, notably Infodrive, and further investigation into non-cash items is required.

UBS lowers the FY25 EPS estimate by -4% and lifts FY26 by 1%, factoring in a higher expected tax rate, increased cost reinvestment in 2H25, offset by better cost controls, NextGen moving to profitability, and higher depreciation and amortisation.

Buy. Target $1.75.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.265
If IFM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFT as Overweight (1) -

Infratil has indicated 12% of Canberra Data Centres has changed hands at an implied equity value for 100% of the business of $13.7bn, which compares with the last independent valuation of $10.2bn.

On completion the company will own 49.75% of CDC while the Future Fund will own 34.5% and CSC 12.04%.

Morgan Stanley, having initiated coverage in late 2024, had a more bullish earnings outlook and valuation for the centre compared with consensus and believes the outcome of this transaction is supportive of its positive thesis.

Overweight maintained. Target is NZ$15. Industry view is Attractive.

Current Price is $10.15. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Sell (5) -

Citi points to a better-than-consensus 1H25 result for Judo Capital, with profit before tax 9% above expectations.

The analyst highlights the net interest margin at 2.81%, with FY25 management guidance at the upper end of the existing 2.8%-2.9% range.

Bad and doubtful debts came in below expectations, while non-performing loans continued to rise, with provision coverage declining to half, Citi explains.

The broker believes the market will like the result and sees it as "solid," with FY25 guidance reconfirmed. Citi explains the main concerns are around asset quality, and currently, it is too soon to become more upbeat on the outlook.

Sell rated, as the analyst believes it is challenging to find further reasons for the stock to be re-rated. Target price rises to $1.60 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Neutral (3) -

During the first half, Judo Capital increased its new lending margins by circa 40bps, though Macquarie feels this may have come at the cost of more risk with higher risk weighted asset (RWA) intensity.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance for 15% pre-tax profit growth, with the 2H net interest margin (NIM) guidance upgraded to the "upper-end" of the 2.90-3.00% range.

Neutral maintained, with the analyst still seeing risks to longer-term consensus margins from lending and deposit competition. Target rises to $1.85 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley was encouraged by the margin and credit quality trends in the first half results from Judo Capital. First half pre-tax profit was ahead of estimates.

With more visibility on near-term operating trends and less risk to FY25 guidance, the broker suspects investors will turn attention to the outlook for FY26.

Guidance for this is expected in August and should reveal a step change in profitability. The company has also updated on strategic initiatives which has provided more confidence for the broker in the medium-term outlook.

Overweight. Target price rises to $2.30 from $1.79. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.2
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JDO as Hold (3) -

Judo Capital's first half result beat expectations and FY25 growth guidance has been reaffirmed. Morgans notes the strong FY26-27 growth potential is the key attraction in the stock.

As the company does not intend paying dividends, retaining capital to support its loan growth aspirations, the broker points out investors are entirely reliant on capital growth.

While higher risk than the major banks, given it is a challenger in the SME banking space, the broker makes the call that, on achieving its at-scale targets, Judo Capital will be Australia's fastest-growing and most efficient bank.

Hold maintained. Target is raised to $2.08 from $1.96.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Judo Capital 's 1H25 earnings report was well ahead of market expectations, Ord Minnett believes, mainly due to lower bad debt charges, with the bank reiterating guidance for FY25 operating profit to rise 15%.

Ord Minnett notes around 70% of Judo’s loans are now funded by its deposit base, which provides a solid foundation to widen its net interest margin into the lower 3% range by FY26 from the December-quarter exit margin of 2.87%.

The analyst lifts FY25 EPS estimate by 3% but lowered FY25 by -3% on higher costs. Buy rating and target price rises to $2.5 from $1.8.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.4
If JDO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JDO as Buy (1) -

UBS raises EPS forecasts by 6.4% for FY25 and 0.9% for FY26 post-conference call, driven by a 5bps increase in net interest margin forecasts for FY25/FY26, partially offset by a decline in average earning assets of -3% and -4% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Buy. Target price moves to $2.55 from $2.50.

****

On first inspection, Judo Capital reported 1H25 results in line with expectations, according to UBS, with management reconfirming conservative FY25 guidance.

The group is expected to experience ongoing improvements in the funding mix, with the broker stating deposits at 70% of total funded assets as a target and net interest margin for June end at 3%.

At current levels, the stock is trading at a historical premium, and UBS believes the ongoing investment thesis for Judo Capital depends on its ability to scale and demonstrate operating leverage.

UBS raises EPS forecasts by 6.4% in FY25 and 0.9% in FY26 post the conference call due to an increase in net interest margin forecasts by 5bps in FY25/FY26 offset slightly from a decline in average earnings assets by -3% and -4% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.45
If JDO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

In an early look at todays 3Q result by James Hardie Industries, Citi notes an around 2% earnings (EBIT) beat but suggests the result quality was mixed as key drivers appear to be lower Corporate costs and SG&A expenses.

Respective APAC and Europe earnings of $35m and $4m missed the consensus forecasts for $36m and $10m, observes the analyst, while North America was broadly in line.

Profit guidance was unchanged, while capex guidance was lowered to the bottom of previous -$420-440m range.

The broker sees limited new evidence of green shoots and notes volumes are still declining. Neutral. Target $56.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $50.37 Difference: $5.63
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.91, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Post first take, Citi lowers the target price to $7.50 from $80.

Citi downgrades Lendlease Group to Neutral from Buy due to heightened short-term uncertainty around earnings.

The analyst points to "limited" positive news in the company's 1H25 earnings report despite management progressing well on the capital recycling strategy.

The company reported more writedowns of the development business, largely due to weakness in office-related projects, which points to a weaker construction result and lower development earnings in FY26.

Asset sales are becoming harder to achieve, and the buyback is dependent on them, the broker explains.

Until the earnings outlook improves or there is greater certainty on the buyback, Citi believes the stock remains cheap but it also remains Neutral rated.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: $0.79
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.92, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Hold (3) -

Lendlease reported a significantly better operating profit of $122 million in 1H25, rebounding from a -$11m loss a year ago.

Ord Minett notes the positive in the result was a 60% jump in its construction pipeline to circa $6.2bn, with construction margin expected to recover to pre-covid average of 3% by FY26.

The company also indicated talks over a further $20bn in Australian developments were under way, which would bolster the workbook from FY27 onwards. The broker highlights gearing at 27% is still high and outside the company’s target band of 5–15%.

The analysts cut FY25-26 EPS forecasts by -3% and -1% respectively. Target price declines marginally to $6.3 from $6.4, and Hold retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.92, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Neutral (3) -

Light & Wonder has announced the acquisition of US Grover Charitable Gaming for -US$850m in cash and up to -US$200m in earn-out payments based on revenue over the next four years, Citi details.

The broker explains Grover operates electronic pull tabs for charitable organisations in five states and will add this exposure to Light & Wonder's portfolio, generating revenue of US$135m in 2024.

The acquisition is subject to regulatory approval, with completion anticipated in 2Q25. Light & Wonder will employ cash and debt financing.

The stock is Neutral rated with a $156 target price.

Target price is $156.00 Current Price is $153.71 Difference: $2.29
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $174.00, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

On first take, Citi notes Mineral Resources' 1H25 results pointed to capex guidance of -$2.1bn, up from -$1.76bn, due to an increase of $0.3bn for Onslow on the road upgrade to asphalt and a larger fleet.

Underlying earnings before tax, interest, and depreciation grew 22%, better than expectations but below consensus, with mining services ahead of the analyst's and consensus estimates.

The Managing Director cited investor concerns around the company's balance sheet, with a Chair appointment scheduled for 4Q25.

Citi explains the mine life for Onslow is now 30 years, down from over 50 years at the AGM. FY25 Onslow guidance has been lowered due to infrastructure works, but nameplate and a 35Mtpa capacity target remain for 1Q26.

Neutral rated. Target price $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $30.50 Difference: $4.5
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.51, suggesting upside of 72.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

First half underlying earnings (EBITDA) and underlying profit for Mineral Resources beat Macquarie's forecasts though a statutory loss of -$807m was a miss, driven by a-$352m Bald Hill impairment and currency impacts on loan balances.

The key negative, in the broker's view, was the -18% FY25 production guidance downgrade at Onslow due to required repairs and upgrades.

Overall, the result was better-than-expected by the analyst, but the risk of Onlsow's ramp-up has increased.

The Neutral rating and $36 target are unchanged.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $30.50 Difference: $5.5
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.51, suggesting upside of 72.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MND as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes Monadelphous Group delivered a better-than-expected 1H25 earnings report against the broker's estimates, with net profit after tax rising 40% year-on-year.

The earnings margin came in at 7.6% versus the analyst's forecast of 6.2%, driven by better operating profitability and non-operating items, which had been flagged previously.

Engineering construction was the standout, with management pointing to high single-digit revenue growth for FY25, supported by higher construction activity and new contract wins.

Bell Potter lifts EPS forecasts by 22% for FY25 and 9% for FY26.

The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target price to $15.90 from $13.90.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $16.42 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.77, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Citi points to a "solid" 1H25 result from Monadelphous Group, with engineering and construction revenue 5% above expectations and 9% ahead of consensus, driven by 34% year-on-year growth.

The result helped lift the operating margin to 6.7%, as the business mix shifted, 30bps above expectations.

Management retained FY25 guidance, including high single-digit revenue growth. The analyst believes there is scope for improved 2H25 margins, supported by a robust outlook for engineering and construction.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and lifts the target price to $16.65 from $16.30 on higher earnings forecasts. The analyst explains a more upbeat view on the stock would require more evidence of upside earnings potential being achievable.

Target price is $16.65 Current Price is $16.42 Difference: $0.23
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.77, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MND as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses a strong 1H by Monadelphous Group with underlying margin improvement evident and delivery of both revenue and margin growth in a difficult contractors sector. Consensus EPS upgrades are anticipated.

Profit of $42.5m compared to the broker's $40m forecast and the pre-guided range of between $40-43m.

The analyst forecasts a 12% acceleration in 2H revenue reflecting an Engineering construction (EC) ramp-up and growth in Maintenance.

The target rises to $17.40 from $15.93. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $16.42 Difference: $0.98
If MND meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.77, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MND as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Monadelphous Group has maintained guidance for high single-digit revenue growth in FY25 and a continued improvement in operating margins.

Morgans assesses material outperformance is dependent on recapturing margins not seen since FY19. A return to this level of profitability has occurred in the first half and this could be a major turning point, the broker adds.

Critically, there were no benefits from one-offs. The order book provides confidence in the growth outlook and, as a potential upgrade cycle begins, the valuation is considered undemanding.

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $17.50 from $14.80.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.42 Difference: $1.08
If MND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.77, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MND as Neutral (3) -

After further analysis of yesterday's 1H result by Monadelphous Group, UBS raises its target to $16.00 from $15.45 and maintains a Neutral rating.

A summary of yesterday's research by UBS follows.

Monadelphous Group reported net profit after tax for 1H25, which was higher than consensus by 4%, UBS notes on first glance.

Revenue growth of 4% was also higher than expected, with FY25 guidance and improved operating margins reconfirmed by management, the analyst details.

The company is being assisted by robust levels of construction activity and new work inflows for FY25 to date, the broker highlights.

Guidance implies a 2H25 skew with better operating margins.

Target price is $16.42 Current Price is $16.42 Difference: $0
If MND meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.77, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

While National Australia Bank's 1Q cash earnings only missed the consensus forecast by circa -1%, Citi explains non-performing exposures continued to increase in the December quarter.

In an early assessment of today's result, the analyst attributes this increase to further deterioration in business banking and higher arrears in the mortgage portfolio, noting the contrast to peers that experienced stable-to-improving trends in non-performing loans.

Revenue was slightly-better-than expected by the broker, though 3% revenue growth in Q1 was primarily driven by Markets & Treasury income.

Overall, Citi anticipates the market will be concerned by revenue growth and underlying asset quality deterioration. Target $26.50. Sell.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: minus $13.01 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.45, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised its gold price forecasts higher, increasing the year-end target by US$200 to US$3,100/oz and long-term by US$250 to US$2,200/oz, keeping the broker well above consensus.

The updated view comes as expectations for US rate cuts are pushed out and is driven by continued: 1) official sector buying, 2) safe haven buying, 3) lack of positioning and 4) ongoing liquidity issues.

Northern Star Resources' target rises to $22.35 from $19.05, Buy retained.

Target price is $22.35 Current Price is $17.57 Difference: $4.78
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.32, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised its gold price forecasts higher, increasing the year-end target by US$200 to US$3,100/oz and long-term by US$250 to US$2,200/oz, keeping the broker well above consensus.

The updated view comes as expectations for US rate cuts are pushed out and is driven by continued: 1) official sector buying, 2) safe haven buying, 3) lack of positioning and 4) ongoing liquidity issue.

Perseus Mining's target rises to $3.90 from $3.35, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $1.12
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.55, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Sell (5) -

UBS has revised its gold price forecasts higher, increasing the year-end target by US$200 to US$3,100/oz and long-term by US$250 to US$2,200/oz, keeping the broker well above consensus.

The updated view comes as expectations for US rate cuts are pushed out and is driven by continued: 1) official sector buying, 2) safe haven buying, 3) lack of positioning and 4) ongoing liquidity issues.

Regis Resources' target rises to $3.10 from $2.40, Sell retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

No change to Buy rating. Target price rises to $5.90 from $5.85 post the broker's initial assessment.

Citi's first take on interim results for Reliance Worldwide suggests an overall 2% beat at the EBIT level against the consensus forecast, largely driven by the US, with APAC in line and the EMEA region acting as a drag.

Management suggested the underlying beat may have been smaller partly due to pull forward demand from early ordering by some channel partners ahead of an ERP upgrade.

Looking ahead, the analysts believe EMEA/APAC are showing tangible signs of improvement and the US business is tracking ahead of expectations.

Management is guiding to mid-single-digits growth in sales for FY25.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.74
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Commenting after 1H results, Macquarie notes Reliance Worldwide continues to improve operating leverage and market positioning for a recovery, but management sees no definite signs at this point.

The company reported 1H results slightly below the broker's expectations, but management cut -$9.8m from costs and set a -US$15m FY25 cost reduction objective compared to the prior range of -US$10-15m.

FY25 guidance is for mid-single-digit group revenue growth and a year-on-year improvement in EBITDA margins.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price falls to $5.90 from $6.55.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.74
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Equal-weight (3) -

First half earnings from Reliance Worldwide were ahead of expectations, with the Americas benefiting from a pulling forward of demand in the first half.

Morgan Stanley does not expect macro conditions to improve in the second half, with management flagging US interest rates at high levels and adversely affecting the renovations market.

Ex Holman, management is signalling further improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins in FY25. Equal-weight. Target is $5. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Add (1) -

The first half result from Reliance Worldwide was slightly better than Morgans expected. The main positives were higher EBITDA margins in all regions, on the back of cost savings and despite subdued volumes.

Guidance for FY25 is softer than anticipated and the broker reduces FY25-27 estimates for underlying EBITDA by -5-6%. The medium-term outlook remains positive with restructuring benefits to drive operating leverage when volumes return.

Target is reduced to $5.80 from $6.10. Add maintained.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.64
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Accumulate (2) -

Reliance Worldwide's 1H25 underlying net profit was below Ord Minnett's forecast but revenue was in line. Adjusted EBITDA rose 15.2% to US$143.8m on volume growth in the Americas and Australia, and contribution from the Holman acquisition.

The broker highlights the macro-economic environment is not expected to materially improve in 2H, noting the company expects FY25 sales to be broadly flat year on year, or mid-single digits including the impact of the Holman acquisition.

Accumulate rating maintained but target price cut marginally to $5.7 from $5.8.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.54
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Neutral (3) -

Following Reliance Worldwide's 1H results, UBS believes a US repair and renovation (R&R) recovery will take time, with management noting early positive sentiment has faded in the face of tariffs/possible inflation.

The broker also points to currency and copper (rising price) headwinds.

First half underlying profit of US$76m compared to the UBS and consensus forecasts for US$72m and US$74m, respectively, but FY25 revenue growth guidance missed consensus.

A drop in 1H corporate costs, steady EMEA margins, and ongoing manufacturing optimisation show management is in charge of the controllables, suggests UBS.

Neutral rating. The analyst's target falls by -4% to $5.60 due to lower revenue and margin expectations.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.44
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Largely due to accounting changes rather than operational issues, explains Macquarie, Seek's 1H adjusted profit of $77m missed the $79m consensus forecast.

The broker is constructive on the outlook supported by yield growth and Australian interest rate cuts which have a correlation to improving advertising volumes.

The Seek Growth Fund has increased by 30% since creation, and Seek's ownership is generally valued at a -20% discount, on the broker's numbers.

The target rises by 7% to $26.75. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $26.75 Current Price is $24.67 Difference: $2.08
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley disagrees with the consensus view of Seek as a "structurally broken business", highlighting the first half results show another 10% price/yield increase in Australasia. Placement market share also increased.

For now the broker prefers REA Group ((REA)) and Car Group ((CAR)), but believes the job advertisements cycle will eventually turn and the high operating leverage that is currently hurting the company's share price will work to its advantage.

Overweight retained. Target is $30. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.67 Difference: $5.33
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Add (1) -

First half results slightly missed expectations while Morgans notes Seek has a "somewhat improving" operating environment as the cyclical decline in job advertisement volumes starts to stabilise. The broker reduces FY25-27 EBITDA estimates by -2-3%.

Morgans believes the company has the ability in several areas to drive growth in the medium term. Add maintained. Target is steady at $27.20.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $24.67 Difference: $2.53
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Despite a tough macroeconomic backdrop, UBS believes Seek's competitive positioning enabled the A&NZ business in H1 to offset a large portion of the -14% volume decline via yield increases of 10%.

In the analyst's view, market share gains, such as the 2.2% half-on-half increase in placements, and ongoing product innovation strengthens the foundation for Seek to leverage the eventual market recovery.

Revenue guidance was tightened, but the midpoint remained unchanged. A shift from capex to opex drove a -5% reduction in adjusted profit guidance, explains the broker.

Buy. Target rises by 3% to $30.10.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $24.67 Difference: $5.43
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Citi views Stockland's 1H25 funds from operations as below consensus at 10.5c, compared to market expectations of 11.3c, due to softer residential margins.

Management retained FY25 guidance for funds from operations at 33-34c per share, implying a strong 2H25 earnings weighting, with residential margins expected to improve.

In 2Q25, residential sales advanced 6% year-on-year to 1,250, with 5,789 contracts on hand.

The NTA rose 0.5% to $4.14, up from $4.12 in June 2024, despite a rise in the cap rate to 6.1%.

The stock is expected to trade weaker pre-earnings call.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.43
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes the latest commentary from Select Harvests' AGM and changes in commodity prices.

The company is expected to produce 27,500-29,000t of almonds in FY25 versus previous guidance of around 29,500t.

Since the FY24 results, almond prices have increased, with management pointing to an FY25 price of $9.20/kg. The company is 50% hedged at AUD/USD 66c.

Bell Potter lifts net profit after tax forecasts by 7% and 32% for FY25/FY26 on higher USD almond prices, a lower AUD assumption, and changes to production forecasts.

Target price rises to $5.80 from $5. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.94
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests' FY25 guidance for 27,500-29,000t volume and $9.2/kg average price was in line with Ord Minnett in terms of volume estimate but higher than the broker's $8.49 price forecast.

Despite only lifting the price estimate to $9.0/kg, the broker's FY25 EBITDA forecast rises by 21% to $108m, with net profit estimate rising more sharply, up 37% to $51m.

Target price rises to $5.85 from $4.95, and Buy rating retained.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.99
If SHV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHV as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades Select Harvests to Neutral from Buy, with a higher target price of $5 from $4.40.

Due to the trend in almond prices to US$9.20/kg versus an estimate of US$8.50, the broker lifts earnings forecasts, offset by FY25 volume guidance, which is slightly lower at 27.5kmt-29kmt from 29kmt.

Management reconfirmed production costs as flat for the year.

UBS lifts earnings forecasts by 24% for FY25 and 14% for FY26 on higher almond price assumptions. EPS estimates rise by 12% to 32% for FY25 to FY27.

The stock has risen 34% since the November result and is now trading at fair value relative to its peers, the broker states.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.14
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SRG as Buy (1) -

SRG Global reported lower-than-forecast 1H25 revenue and earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA), Bell Potter notes.

The broker highlights EBITDA margin rose 70bps year-on-year, driven predominantly by an improvement in maintenance and industrial services (M&I) margin.

A fully franked 2.5c dividend per share was announced, a 25% increase year-on-year. Management upgraded EBITDA guidance, which the analyst interprets as implying a stronger 2H25 result.

Bell Potter lowers FY25 EBITDA by -1% and raises FY26 by 1% on lower revenue forecasts from M&I, offset by higher sales forecasts from engineering and construction.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target price to $1.65 from $1.55.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.255
If SRG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SRG as Accumulate (2) -

SRG Global's 1H25 revenue was -4% below Ord Minnett's estimate but EBITDA was marginally above.

The company raised FY25 EBITDA guidance by 1% at the mid-point to $125-128m from $125m. The company’s prior guidance assumed no growth for Diona in FY25 but now expects growth in the 10%-plus range.

The broker has raised FY25-27 EBITDA estimates by an average of 0.6%. Target price rises to $1.41 from $1.32, and Accumulate retained..

Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.015
If SRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26: