Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Citi has kept its Neutral rating for Alumina Ltd while reducing forecasts and pulling back its price target to $1.85 from $2.05.

The analysts have come to the conclusion that margin pressure will remain prevalent throughout the remainder of 2020 because of elevated prices for energy and caustic soda.

The release of March quarter production numbers clearly disappointed because of the negative jaws caused by rising costs and lower prices received.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.07, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

With unit costs up to US$288 per tonne, from US$244 per tonne in the previous quarter, and realised pricing on alumina missing Credit Suisse's expectations at US$376 per tonne, Alumina Ltd's cash margin declined -26% in the March quarter.

The broker noted the company warned costs would be US$70m higher in the quarter, but production issues, maintenance and shipment delays at Australian refineries further contributed, although the company expects these pressures to ease in the quarter ahead.

With the company guiding to a further US$85m increase in its alumina cost base given raw material and energy costs in the March quarter, Credit Suisse has increased its first half costs to an expected US$285 per tonne, and US$305 per tonne in the second half.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.00 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.13
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.07, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

March quarter cash distribution from AWAC was solid but production was softer and realised prices were below the prior quarter, albeit in line with Macquarie's forecast.

Alumina (the company) has pointed to cost pressures, which will create headwinds for dividends in the near term, the broker warns.

The broker has cut its earnings forecast by -7% but leaves its $1.90 target unchanged, noting AWAC cash distributions will remain solid given elevated alumina/aluminium prices.

Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.03
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.07, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Following Alumina Ltd's 1Q results and commentary, Morgan Stanley sees a silver lining in the potential for a higher alumina price, despite a -7% miss on production (refining and mining) versus the broker's forecast.

Management explains 1Q supply was affected by production/shipment issues, Ukraine's curtailment, the Australian government ban on exports to Russia and issues with Rusal’s Russian smelters.

The target price is lowered to $2.20 from $2.30. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.33
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.07, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Buy (1) -

Alumina Ltd's AWAC partner Alcoa has reported a material fall in alumina earnings in the March quarter, below Ord Minnett's forecast. Bauxite earnings matched forecasts but will fall in the June quarter due to suspension of sales to Russia.

A significant step-up in costs is also anticipated, and the broker has cut its alumina price forecast. Target falls to $2.40 from $2.60. Buy retained on perceived longer term value.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.53
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.07, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Big miners, BHP Group included, have been unable to meet expectations during the March quarter, which would have been disappointing under most alternative circumstances, suggest Citi analysts.

This time around, however, the broker suggests it is simply impossible to ignore the tsunami in cash flows producers such as BHP are enjoying.

Hence, despite operational disappointment, an upgrade to Buy from Neutral is now a fact. Price forecasts for iron ore have been upgraded to US$149 and US$110 per tonne respectively for this year and next, while for hard coking coal the new forecasts are US$365 and US$225 per tonne, respectively.

Price target lifts to $56 from $48.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $50.70 Difference: $5.3
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.26, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Despite BHP Group's West Australian iron ore operations delivering a softer than expected March quarter, coming in -5% below Credit Suisse's forecasts, full year production guidance has been reiterated with production year-to-date equating to 74% of full year guidance.

Copper and nickel production were both below forecast, -14% and -21% respectively, with the company attributing the miss to weather events and the impacts of industry-wide covid-driven labour constraints and absenteeism.

Credit Suisse expects geopolitical tensions and covid impacts to support near-term pricing strength. While the broker considers BHP Group to offer balanced risk over the next year, it warns a shrinking portfolio could impact on growth compared to peers and increase risk.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $48.00 from $44.00.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $50.70 Difference: minus $2.7 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $52.26, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group complained of labour shortages in WA but iron ore production in the March Q met Macquarie's forecast. Met coal output was stronger, while thermal coal, nickel and particularly copper were lower, the latter due to labour issues in Chile.

The broker has adjusted June Q expectations to sit at the top end of iron ore production guidance and the bottom end for copper. Buoyant commodity prices support earnings upside for BHP but Macquarie's target falls to $60 from $61 on an assumed capex increase.

Outperform retained.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $50.70 Difference: $9.3
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.26, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a good underlying performance from BHP Group's 3Q activities report, despite the worst covid impacts of the pandemic to-date, following interruptions for Nickel West, iron ore in WA, as well as Escondida in Chile.

The broker notes that commodity price strength continues to outweigh both covid and inflationary pressures for the company. The Add rating is maintained, while the target price rises to $54.30 from $51.80.

Target price is $54.30 Current Price is $50.70 Difference: $3.6
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.26, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as No Rating (-1) -

BHP Group's iron ore production in the March Q met Ord Minnett's forecast. Met coal output was stronger, while thermal coal, nickel and particularly copper were lower, the latter due to labour issues in Chile.

The broker is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $50.70. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $52.26, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles has provided upgraded FY22 guidance and Citi analysts have responded with higher forecasts, including for FY23 and FY24.

The analysts had already assumed the Brambles board will give the go-ahead for plastic pallets, and this remains key to the broker's outlook for increased margins for the years ahead.

Buy rating retained with an increased price target of $12.29, up from $12.12.

Target price is $12.29 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: $1.47
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Strong execution on pricing power sees Brambles report sales revenue of US$4,067m nine months into the year, implying 8% growth despite flat volumes year to date. Credit Suisse notes wins in Europe and Australia offset lower volumes from existing customers.

The solid update also saw Brambles increase expected full year revenue growth to 8-9% from a previous 6-8%, and expected underlying earnings growth to 6-7% from a previous 3-5%. Credit Suisse expects cash flow will improve as lumber prices moderate.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $13.15 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: $2.33
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley had expected revenue growth for Brambles to slow in the 2H, though group revenue growth of 8% for the 3Q suggests positive 1H trends are continuing.The target price rises to $10.20 from $9.50.

Group revenue grew 8% for the nine months to March, on a constant currency basis.

Nevertheless, a lack of free cash flow generation is a concern and the Underweight rating is maintained by the analyst. There are also expected to be cash flow implications from a significant investment for a plastic pool (relating to Costco). Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

Sales growth of 8% in the 3Q for Brambles exceeded the 7% forecast by Morgans. Sales lifted due to ongoing price rises implemented to recover rising costs, explains the analyst, while volumes were broadly in-line with the previous corresponding period.

Management upgraded guidance for sales growth, underlying earnings (EBIT) growth and free cash flow, though the broker remains concerned on an overall lack of free cash flow generation.

While the target price climbs to $11.07 from $10.05, this was largely attributed to a roll-forward of forecast years in the broker's financial model. Hold.

Target price is $11.07 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: $0.25
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles has updated FY22 sales for the nine months to March, leading to a guidance upgrade given cash outflows are not expected to be as extensive as previously assumed. CHEP Americas stood out, for which lumber and transport costs are being recovered.

Ord Minnett notes plastic pallets for Costco was a talking point, but the company will only proceed as long as returns are not dilutive to group return on invested capital, which would be a more positive outcome than the broker anticipates.

Target falls to $11.95 from $12.25 on earnings forecast adjustments, Buy retained.

Target price is $11.95 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: $1.13
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles has reported 8% constant sales growth in the third quarter, driven by 13% growth from CHEP Americas and 6% from CHEP EMEA, while the Australia Pacific region remained flat. The result was stronger than UBS had anticipated for the second half.

The broker noted the result demonstrates the company's ability to retain profit margins through cost inflation, with CHEP Americas growth driven entirely by price given volumes declined -2% in the period.

Having only provided previous guidance two months ago, the company is now guiding to 8-9% sales growth for the year, up from 6-8%, and earnings growth of 6-7%, up from 3-5%.

The Buy rating and target price of $13.00 are retained.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: $2.18
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

The strong positive share price response to Challenger's quarterly update yesterday is deemed "overdone" by Citi analysts. They were not in the slightest surprised by the upgrade in guidance and the rise in gross sales.

Among the counter-arguments offered is that asset values in both Life and Funds Management are down and will likely create modest 
headwinds moving forward.

Downgrade to Sell from Neutral. Target price drops to $6.90 from $7.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Challenger has narrowed its full year profit guidance to the upper end of its $430-480m range at $468m, but Credit Suisse nudges its profit forecast higher to $471m following the company's third quarter update.

Third quarter term annuity sales were up 20% year-on-year, but with total annuity book growth remaining at 2%, although ahead of Credit Suisse's expectations, the broker expects a large portion of sales to be reinvestment of maturing products. 

The broker notes higher annuity rates may take time to transition into sales. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.00 from $6.40. 

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Following its quarterly update, Challenger has upgraded FY profit guidance to close in on the upper end of the range. While the quarter saw net outflows these included the Whitehelm exit and an institutional redemption at a lower margin, Macquarie notes.

Challenger will shortly commence its move into corporate and SME lending which should support growth but will only be a relatively small part of the business, the broker notes.

Otherwise the broker continues to like the long-term growth thematic, coupled with the capital benefits of the acquisition of the bank licence, but sees valuation as fair. Neutral retained, target falls to $6.60 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects low single digit consensus upgrades following a better-than-expected 3Q sales result from Challenger. Management now guides towards the upper end of the original $430-480m range for profit (PBT).

Wider credit spreads and higher interest rates are potential tailwinds, suggests the analyst, as long as the volume/margin/risk tradeoff is well managed. The Equal-weight rating and $6.40 target are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Add (1) -

A relatively robust 3Q performance by Challenger continues solid recent quarterly growth trends, notes Morgans. Total Life sales rose 10% on the previous corresponding period, while total Life net book growth rose 2.8% for the quarter.

While the analyst makes small EPS upgrades, a valuation roll-forward in the financial model helps lift the target price to $8.14 from $7.74. Given undemanding multiples, the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $8.14 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $0.64
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Hold (3) -

Challenger provided a March quarter trading update which showed strong growth in Life, along with slightly increased risk asset
allocation. This helps margins and profit but pressures capital, Ord Minnett notes.

Funds management and capital were weaker than the broker's forecasts but profit guidance was upgraded to the top end of the company’s FY22 range, as expected.

Hold and $7.00 target retained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Following a 3Q update, UBS lifts its target price for Challenger to $7.30 from $6.40, after raising EPS forecasts to reflect both an increased cash operating earnings (COE) margin and higher Life sales.

While the stock is still not considered expensive on current multiples, the broker requires the Life division to sustainably cover its cost of equity before lifting its Neutral rating.

The analyst feels risk has been reduced well prior to August results as management has upgraded guidance to the upper-end of the $430-$480m range.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lifts its target price for CSL to $310 from $302 and retains its Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line. Gross margin improvement is expected from the 2H of FY23 and it's noted plasma collections are now near pre-pandemic levels.

The analyst highlights the strong recent performance of vaccines and the proposed acquisition of Swiss pharma company Vifor. The latter is estimated to be around 8% EPS-accretive in FY23.

The diversification obtained from the Vifor purchase may prove wise, as there's medium-to long-term disruption risk from 'FcRn' and influenza vaccine manufactured via mRNA technology, explains the broker.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $266.98 Difference: $43.02
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $319.02, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

Deterra Royalties' Mining Area C production was up 9% in the March Q from the prior quarter and 28% ahead of Macquarie's forecast. The South Flank ramp-up is set to increase production by some 133% and has now reached 73% of capacity.

Iron ore prices continue to support earnings upside and Deterra is offering an FY23 dividend yield of 8% at current spot, the broker notes.

Outperform retained, target rises to $5.50 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.64
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EDV as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Retail liquor market share losses that were evident in Endeavour Group's first half have continued into the third quarter, with retail liquor volumes marginally below Credit Suisse's expectations for the period.

More positively, sales revenue from hotels increased 2.5% year-on-year as the post-covid recovery continues as expected. With sales revenue now -4% below the third quarter in FY19, Credit Suisse expects further upside is possible.

Finding Endeavour Group expensive compared to better value options on the market, Credit Suisse downgrades the rating to Underperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $6.60 from $6.62.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.61 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.28, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Endeavour Group saw revenues fall -2% year on year in the March quarter as retail fell -3% and hotels rose 3.8%, reflecting the shift from home back to pub consumption. However adjusting for the moveable Easter effect, those numbers are -0.7% and 2.5%, Macquarie notes.

The broker retains Neutral and a $7.70 target, noting Endeavour is now trading at a 29x FY22 PE, some 21% premium to Coles ((COL)). Macquarie believes supermarkets are superior businesses to alcohol retailers and thus prefers Coles, which also owns competitors such as Liquorland.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.61 Difference: $0.09
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.28, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Following a slightly better-than-expected 3Q trading update from Endeavour Group, Morgans makes modest upgrades to earnings forecasts. The target rises to $7.61 from $7.54 and the Hold rating is maintained.

Retail and Hotels sales growth rates exceeded the analyst's estimates. Further increases for online sales are expected. Annualised online sales are now over $1bn, with penetration at 9.6% versus 8% in the previous corresponding period.

Target price is $7.61 Current Price is $7.61 Difference: $0
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.28, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Weather events and a shift back to on-premise consumption has seen Endeavour Group's third quarter retail liquor sales miss UBS's expectations by -1.3%, but drive hotel sales up 3.8% year-on-year. 

The broker notes flood damage has left a -$9m impact on quarterly earnings, and with the company yet to make an insurance claim UBS has decreased earnings per share forecasts -2.4% and -4.5% for FY22 and FY23 respectively.

The Neutral rating and target price of $7.20 are retained.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.61 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.28, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Amongst multiple observations, Citi makes the point the March quarter production report suggests things are improving for Red Lake. This is important as the broker observes the share price has outperformed the broader sector of late.

To continue outperforming, Citi believes further improvement at Red Lake remains key. The EHM acquisition has been a great deal for the company, Citi adds.

Given lower production, Citi has reduced its own projections. Downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Price target remains at $4.60. Dividend estimates have been noticeably reduced.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.26
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Gold production from Evolution Mining in the March quarter missed the mark, with a reported 149,000 ounces a -14% miss on Credit Suisse's expectations as challenges continue at Red Lake despite improvement in the quarter.

Weather conditions and covid-driven labour constraints impacted performance at Australian assets. The broker warns a continuing tight labour market will likely see further absenteeism in the coming quarter, particularly for assets with exposure to the WA work force.

With a big second half needed to meet previous full year guidance, the company reduced its production guidance to 650,000 ounces from a previous 670-725,000 ounce range. More positively, all in costs improved to $990 per ounce, ahead of the broker's $1,105 per ounce.

The Underperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.75 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining's March Q production fell -11% short of Macquarie and costs were 8% higher. Given ongoing weather and covid impacts, the miner has trimmed its FY production guidance.

The ramp-up at Red Lake is progressing slower than expected and the project's FY23 outlook is now under review. The broker has lowered its own outlook and cut its target to $4.00 from $4.30, Underperform retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Overall, 3Q results for Evolution Mining were weaker than Morgan Stanley had forecast. A -9% miss on gold production versus the broker's forecast was driven by misses at Mt Rawdown, Ernest Henry and Cowal.

Production guidance for FY22 was downgraded by -7%.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) were also significantly higher than expected and the broker remains Underweight, preferring Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) and Northern Star Resources ((NST)) in the sector. The target of $5.05 is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.71
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Evolution Mining's 3Q broadly missed Morgans expectations. Gold production of 148.8koz was a miss versus the consensus forecast of 171koz.

While the analyst believes the company's targeted 650koz gold production for FY22 will be slightly missed, there is potential for an upside surprise. 

The broker's target price rises to $4.45 from $4.20 on confidence in Red Lake’s outlook, exploration updates, and a new long-term mine life expectation. Hold.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.11
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Evolution Mining's March quarter numbers were adversely impacted by weather and covid, Ord Minnett notes. While these can be looked past, Red Lake is unlikely to perform to the broker's original expectations in FY23 given performance to date.

The broker therefore reduces FY23 production estimates on a more conservative ramp-up, which drives its target down to $4.35 from $4.90.

The miner still provides liquid, high margin, diversified gold exposure, Ord Minnett suggests, but on relative valuation as well as Red Lake risk the broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.01
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Following a weaker-than-expected quarterly update from Megaport, Citi has moderated its projections for the years ahead.

Given the quarter was off to a strong start, it appears multiple disappointments combined through the Partner Vantage program and slower conversions, the broker explains.

Post yesterday's disappointment, Citi continues to see Megaport as a beneficiary of the trend towards multi-cloud and distributed compute which should -all else being equal- translate to a long run-way of growth.

Buy rating retained. Price target tumbles to $16.60 from $19.30.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: $6.59
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.59, suggesting upside of 72.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Following 3Q results for Megaport, Morgans lowers its target price to $10.65 from $14.50 and cautions a lot depends on sales acceleration as investors await proof of scalability. That being said, the broker remains a long-term bull on the stock.

The results were dragged down by currency impacts, which halved revenue growth on translation back to Australian dollars. Also, time spent by direct sales people training channel partner sales teams on the Megaport Virtual Edge product weighed. Hold.

Target price is $10.65 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: $0.64
If MP1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.59, suggesting upside of 72.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Megaport delivered a soft March quarter update, Ord Minnett reports, which highlighted the long lead times to build a new sales channel.

The broker highlights despite positive management commentary on progress with partners, the latest key performance indicators are yet to demonstrate a meaningful uplift in incremental sales growth.

Installed data centres also saw the first reduction in Megaport’s history, which suggests to the broker the network footprint is largely mature.

The broker believes Megaport’s market opportunity remains large, although the recent pivot into the indirect channel is taking longer than expected to ramp up, and Megaport’s new products will take time to be digested by its clients.

Target falls to $11.00 from $15.00, Hold retained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: $0.99
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.59, suggesting upside of 72.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Following a 3Q update by Megaport, UBS delays its growth assumptions due to lower average revenue per port and foreign exchange headwinds. Additionally, a slower ramp-up in sales for the MVE product is expected and the cost base increased during the quarter.

Nonetheless, the analyst remains upbeat on the medium/long-term opportunity due to a range of factors, including the structural shift to the cloud and the company's high quality products.

The broker estimates the earnings potential is more delayed rather than reduced, and the initial negative sharemarket reaction to results were overdone. The target falls to $19.70 from $21.75. Buy.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: $9.69
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.59, suggesting upside of 72.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NEC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the outlook for all global TV streaming players is likely to be revised lower following negative 1Q subscriber growth for Netflix. Sharply lower multiples are now being applied to Netflix, in recognition of its lower growth prospects.

Nonetheless, the broker considers its estimates and valuation for Nine Entertainment's Stan service are conservative. It's thought Stan's strategic value, as part of a wider TV/screen asset portfolio, is substantial.

The Overweight rating and $3.80 target price are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.93
If NEC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Perpetual's quarterly updated proved yet again a rather mixed affair, comment Citi analysts, pointing at net outflows from Barrow Hanley and the return of net outflows for PAMA in particular.

Citi is refusing to adopt a negative view, instead relying on management's confidence that net flows are poised for a positive surprise.

Buy rating retained while the target price lifts to $40.80 from $40.00.

Target price is $40.80 Current Price is $32.57 Difference: $8.23
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.39, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PPT as Outperform (1) -

A mixed bag from Perpetual in its third quarter according to Credit Suisse, with the company reporting better than anticipated corporate trust funds under supervision growth and performance fees, but outflows of -$1.2bn from the asset management business disappointed compared to Credit Suisse's expected -$0.1bn, 

Outflows saw Perpetual Australia funds under management decline -1% quarter-on-quarter, while Perpetual International funds under management fell -6%. Credit Suisse continues to see values in Perpetual's exposure to the high growth ESG segment.

The Outperform rating and target price of $42.00 are retained.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $32.57 Difference: $9.43
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.39, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as No Rating (-1) -

Perpetual saw asset under management outflows of -$1.2bn in the March Q when Macquarie had forecast -$0.8bn.

The broker notes market and forex movements impacted on funds under management value.

The broker is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $32.57. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $40.39, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Overweight (1) -

In the wake of 3Q results for Perpetual, where outflows were broadly in-line with Morgan Stanley's forecast, the broker believes there's a strong range of growth options.

Management pointed to $2.5bn of commitments or pipeline in 2022. Meanwhile, the analyst notes it's not clear whether the company will make another bid for Pendal Group ((PDL)).

The Overweight rating and $45 target are maintained. Industry view is In-Line. 

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $32.57 Difference: $12.43
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.39, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Accumulate (2) -

Perpetual's March quarter update revealed the corporate trust business continued to show strong growth in funds under administration but net outflows were suffered across the asset management funds, Ord Minnett notes.

Expense guidance was maintained but there was no further update on the takeover proposal for Pendal Group ((PDL)).

The broker has reduced earnings forecasts to reflect current markets and weaker flows, leading to a target price cut to $36.50 from $38.00. Accumulate retained.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $32.57 Difference: $3.93
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.39, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RBL as Equal-weight (3) -

Reiteration of FY22 guidance during a 3Q update by Redbubble suggests to Morgan Stanley headwinds may have started to stabilise. While the results were slightly below forecast, the analyst notes comparisons to prior periods get a lot easier going forward.

The prospect of capital management initiatives may provide a catalyst, given a strong balance sheet, ventures the broker.

The Equal-weight rating and $2.65 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $1.35
If RBL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 78.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RBL as Neutral (3) -

UBS estimates downside risk to FY23 consensus expectations for revenue and earnings following 3Q results for Redbubble. While results showed only a slight miss on the broker's estimates, signs of a turning point for margins are yet to emerge.

Demand across the sector has softened over the quarter resulting in digital marketing competition and elevated promotional activity, explains the analyst. It's expected this will continue in the near-term.

The target price is slashed to $1.45 from $2.55 as UBS lowers the company's most relevant multiple to a level shy of closest peers. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.15
If RBL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 78.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Following Stockland's 3Q update, Morgan Stanley remains Overweight due to the impact on earnings of the strategy shift into commercial developments, despite residential softening.

Management maintained FY22 EPS guidance and expects a 'meaningful' step up in 4Q residential (despite 3Q slippage) as new projects are launched, and because enquiries are at record high levels.

The Overweight rating and $5.05 target price are retained. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.85
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Hold (3) -

Stockland provided a March quarter update that was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectation. Funds from operations guidance was retained despite some residential settlement challenges, such as supply chain issues and bad weather.

Retail sales growth remained positive, now more than 10% above pre-covid levels, as Stockland’s portfolio has been less impacted than some of the other major landlords. Rent collection was 93% but should be higher in the June Q with less restriction disruption, the broker suggests.

Hold and $4.75 target retained.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.55
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Citi found Santos' quarterly update a mixed affair gven a record production proved below market's and it's own forecast. The broker has elected to retain its Neutral rating.

The target price is now at $8.13.

To fully finance the US$250m in shares buyback, the price of oil needs to remain at or above US$93/bbl, on the broker's calculations. A higher price means additional room for extra dividends.

In some negative news, the Apus exploration well has been deemed uncommercial.

Target price is $8.13 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos' March quarter performance was solid, Macquarie suggests, with strong GLNG sales offsetting water issues in WA impacting production, although half the problem was due to a gas customer outage.

The sell-down of Dorado looks likely in the next 3-6 months and the broker expects up to -29%, which should attract plenty of interest in the current oil price environment.

Outperform retained, target rises to $10.50 from $10.35.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $2.13
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Following Santos' 1Q production report Morgan Stanley explains revenue was higher than expected due to better pricing, while production was a slight miss versus forecasts.

Higher dividends and larger on-market share buybacks should be driven by divestments, which should prove a major catalyst for the share price, according to the analyst. The target price rises to $11 from $10.40. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

The broker estimates a sale of 51% of Alaska could generate more than US$1bn, 10% of PNG LNG has potential for US$2.5bn, while 30-40% of Dorado may bring in US$0.5bn.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $2.63
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Add (1) -

While Santos' 1Q report was considered reasonable, it missed Morgans estimates due to lower volumes in WA (outage at a major customer) and lower LNG sales from GLNG. In addition, Cooper Basin production was impacted by wet weather.

The broker retains its Add rating and lowers its target to $10.00 from $10.10. Subject to execution of the company's growth strategy at Barossa, Moomba and Dorado, the share price is expected to continue its positive re-rating.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $1.63
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos posted a March quarter production report that was broadly in line with Ord Minnett’s estimates, with the company’s strong cash generation being a highlight. The broker believes commodity prices will remain elevated in the near term.

This will further strengthen the company’s balance sheet as it embarks on growth, as well as offer optionality for additional capital returns to shareholders, the broker notes. Potential asset sales, which have been flagged by management, are a catalyst for the stock.

Buy and $9.60 target retained.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $1.23
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

Following March quarter results for Santos, UBS lowers its near-term production forecast to reflect a faster decline rate at Darwin LNG, lower output from PNG oil assets and lower condensate from WA.

Nonetheless, the analyst considers 1Q results were strong, with sales revenue in-line with expectations, supported by strong realised LNG pricing.

The sale of six GLNG cargoes at prices indexed to JKM (the Asian benchmark spot for LNG) also helped to offset the lower production results for the quarter, explains the broker. The Buy rating and $9.90 target are retained.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $1.53
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Despite the challenging impacts of covid-driven mobility restriction and severe weather events, UBS notes Viva Energy delivered a positive March quarter update with strong refining margins and commercial fuel growth up 13% year-on-year.

The broker highlights Viva Energy was able to deliver a better than expected refining margin by securing a stronger spread between crude oil costs and refined product pricing, driving a US$11.50 per barrel refining margin in March, up from US$8.30 per barrel in the first quarter.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.95 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.23
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Ahead of its first half earnings result release in May, Westpac has announced a write-down of goodwill now the superannuation business has been sold, additional provisions for litigation costs and forthcoming asset sales and revaluations.

The result will be a drag on profit but increase in capital ratio, and no impact on the broker's forecasts. Hold and $23.30 target retained.

Target price is $23.30 Current Price is $24.51 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.44, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates Z1P as Neutral (3) -

Citi has taken a positive view on the fact the company's quarterly update showed customer growth accelerating in the US. Zip Co also lowered costs faster than anticipated.

Rising bad debts, however, is seen as a major risk. While reducing costs may well impact on top line growth. The quarterly revealed slowing growth.

The broker retains its Neutral/High Risk rating while the target price tumbles to $1.40 from $2.15. 

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.19
If Z1P meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates Z1P as Underperform (5) -

Zip Co added an impressive 900k customers in the US in the March Q, Macquarie notes, taking the total to 6.6m. But use of the service per customer fell to 3.5x from 4.9x in the prior quarter.

In A&NZ, revenue benefited from repricing but here growth is slowing. Management is now targeting a -20% cut in "people costs" by reducing the headcount, and cost-outs at Sezzle will increase expected synergies from the merger.

But bad debts will remain elevated this half, the broker warns, while both funding costs and regulatory risks are rising, "muddying the path" to profitability and limiting re-rating potential. Underperform retained, target falls to $1.05 from $1.85.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.34

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates Z1P as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans has concerns around the general BNPL space and downgrades its rating for Zip Co to Hold from Add. A 3Q update also prompted a reduction in the broker's forecast EPS for FY22 and FY23 by -9% and -13%, on lower near term revenue/earnings assumptions.

The target price is slashed to $1.26 from $3.94. The most likely near-term catalyst of an improvement in the bad debt charge is still considered to be a couple of quarters away, according to the analyst.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.05
If Z1P meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates Z1P as Accumulate (2) -

Zip Co’s quarterly trading update was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations, with revenue below but customer numbers ahead of forecasts. Average spend per customer was lower, yet an average revenue yield of 7.7% was better than expected.

Zip has been successful winning the opportunity for a pilot program with Best Buy in the US and recent cost-cutting has seen the business reduce its total people costs by some -20%.

Given The BNPL sector has been aggressively sold off along with the broader tech sector, the broker has lowered its enterprise value to a sales multiple of 6.0x, leading to a target price cut to $2.00 from $4.00.

Accumulate rating nevertheless retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.79
If Z1P meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources